PSEi Outlook for Jul.

25 29, 2011
The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) continues to make a lot of people smile as it has been making a new all-time high when it hit 4515. It has corrected a bit from that level. The moving averages and the MACD both continue to confirm the bullish sentiment in the market as both have been trending upward lately. We would expect that the recent peak prior to the new all-time high, which is 4464, would now serve as our most immediate support before we continue to trend higher. There are still some bargains to be had. Good hunting! Recommendation: Buy Support: 4464

PSEi Outlook for Aug. 1 5, 2011

The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) has proven to be resilient as it came near our expected support area of 4464 before moving up higher to end the week at 4503. A lot of people are getting concerned that the debt ceiling problem in the US would spill over all the global markets including us. However, we view things a little differently. The moving averages continue being bullish while the PSEi moves higher while the MACD has slowed down a bit but remains also bullish. These indicators only confirm what we are still seeing; that the PSEi is very strong. There is some decoupling happening with our index and the DJIA. The common expectation is that whenever the US market dives, we dive along with them. This has not been the case lately as when our index drops, it doesnt drop as big. We even had one day that the DJIA drop by 198 points yet we went down by only 0.09 points. This now gives us more confidence to continue holding our stocks that give us profits and we still look for bargains that have yet to break out. Recommendation: Buy Support: 4464

PSEi Outlook for Aug. 8 12, 2011

The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) has reacted just as pessimistically as other markets to the movement of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as the index dropped by as much as 159 points in the middle of the last trading day. The drop was quite big but the 50-day moving average was able to provide support at 4347. This was the area where the index bounced off. The MACD lines have signaled a

correction in the making but it is still in the positive territory. In short, these indicators are telling us that we shouldnt be too worried about our situation. The good thing about the last trading days movement Is that it was able to gain back more than half of what was lost. Therefore, even if it ended in the red, there could be some momentum for the following week for the index to continue to bounce higher. Recommendation: Hold Support: 4328

PSEi Outlook for Aug. 15 19, 2011

The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) had a bad reaction due to the DJIAs big drop. However, we were able to get some of our bearings back as the gap down was filled up almost immediately but the index got stopped going up. When the index fell, it went through the 50, & 100-day moving averages. At the same time, it breached the 200MA but was able to regain back some of the losses. After that, the PSEi was able to bounce back to break back above the 100MA. It was stopped at the 50MA at 4321 as that was where it closed for the week. The MACD has already reacted to the big drop by having the fast line drop below the zero line but we have yet to see its reaction to the recent rally. The index needs to get past the 50MA and continue rising to retest the recent high at 4563. At this point, there would be very few opportunities left as many issues have already risen. It might be more prudent to just hold on to any winning positions. Recommendation: Hold Support: 4328

PSEi Outlook for Aug. 22 26, 2011

The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) had a bit of a reaction from all the bearish movements in the DJIA but has proved to be very resilient than we give it credit. Although we finished the week at 4339, this is still above our immediate support of 4328. Last week, we wrote the index stopped around the 50-day moving average. This has proven to be our resistance (50MA at 4357) for the moment since the index ended just below the 50MA. The MACD has also reacted but it hasnt crossed above the zero line and the slow line yet so the previous sentiment should still remain. We fear for our index as its quite fragile and may succumb to the big movements that the US market will do. However, it has also proven to be more resilient than we think so we shouldnt discount a possible decoupling again.

Recommendation: Hold Support: 4328

PSEi Outlook for Aug. 31 Sept. 2, 2011

The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) is holding its own despite the sell off thats happening in other global markets. Our index is just moving sideways, hopefully to retest our highs and continue climbing to new uncharted levels. The PSEi ended the week at 4305, somewhere around the 100-day moving average at 4315. Although this is slightly under the 100MA, we still feel that this is still a bit healthy as there are no clear signs of bearishness. The MACD is also showing consolidation as it has been oscillating around the zero line for practically one year. As a precaution, we advise those with any winning positions to take their profits. It might be too late should the global markets have a meltdown and our index just happens to go with the flow. Recommendation: Take profits Support: 4170

PSEi Outlook for Sept. 5 9, 2011

The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) has been steady as it is still going sideways for the past month while its US counterpart has been on a roller coaster ride. While the index ended the week at 4392, which is slightly higher than the 50-day moving average at 4383, this doesnt necessarily mean that we are already on a bull run. For what its worth, the index is just going where the moving averages are. The MACD still indicates more consolidation but it could be gearing up for the next run that everyone is waiting for. We have noticed that for the past few months, the mining stocks have already had a great run however only a few days ago, things look like theyve turned around and the money has already shifted to other sectors like property and financials. Those may be the areas we should take a look at as they could be the next ones to push the index to higher levels. Recommendation: Buy selectively Support: 4328

PSEi Outlook for Sept. 12 16, 2011

The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) continues to trade within a tight range as we wait for a catalyst to push the index. The index has been trading between the 50 & 100-day moving averages, and they have been serving as both resistance and support respectively. The 50MA has been blocking attempts for the index to move higher at 4390, while the 100MA has been supporting the index at 4327. All this time, the MACD has gone sideways with no signs of it making a clear direction. Until the index breaks through the 50MA, we have to expect more consolidation from the PSEi. However, thats not to say that there wont be any opportunities along the way. Recommendation: Buy selectively Resistance: 4390

PSEi Outlook for Sept. 19 23, 2011

The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) is still waiting for something to push it to higher levels as was expected a few weeks ago. Its turning out that the index is stuck inside a range. The 50 and 100-day moving averages are blocking the path of the index at 4383 and 4327, respectively. Coincidentally, the 100MA is also where our resistance of 4328 is situated. So when this area is broken, this will have quite significance. The MACD lines have still shown us that consolidation is all thats happening now but it is under the zero line which isnt as bullish. We need to see the index break the area of 4328 and then retest the area of the 50MA. We need to see that done with an expansion in the value turnover otherwise, it would just be easy for the PSEi to fall back to the current levels and maybe even lower. Recommendation: Wait and see Resistance: 4328