Chapter 4

The Human Population and the Environment

Characteristics of a LESS Developed Country (LDC)

NO single universal definition Classification is useful for statistical purposes, not inferior/superior status Not fully industrialized Lower life expectancy Has a less complex financial system Low per capita income (less than $3800/yr) Low export diversification Examples: China, Ethiopia, Argentina, India, Zambia Generalization: 80% of the worlds population, uses 20% of worlds resources

Characteristics of a MORE Developed Country (MDC)

Under debate b/c a country is always undergoing industrial change High per capita income ($4000+/yr) Higher life expectancy More educational opportunities Examples: Switzerland, U.S., Australia, Kuwait, Finland Generalization: 20% of worlds population, uses 80% of worlds resources

Factors Affecting Human Popl size

Population Change
= Population = (births + immigrants) (deaths + emigrants)

New popl size = current size + change of the year Zero Population Growth (ZPG) is when the population is not growing or declining Crude birth or death rate
Number per 1000 people

Approx 2.5 babies added to Earth every time your heart beats!

Annual Rate of Change Equation

CBR CDR 1000 x 100 = %

The more simple form

CBR CDR = 10 %

Demography
The study of populations Includes
Abundance Birth rate Death rate Growth rate Age structure

Global population growth rate

Currently 1.2% yearly (~80 million people/yr) In 1963 the growth rate was 2.1%
A 39% drop! But the overall population size is up 91%

The increase is because the BR is dropping, but the DR is dropping even faster

Annual world population growth

<1% 1-1.9% 2-2.9% 3+% Data not available

Fertility Ratesyourself Replacement level fertility: # of kids to replace

2.1 2.5/couple Total Fertility Rate (TFR): avg # of kids a woman will have Currently globally it is 2.9 Africa 5.3 North America 2.0

Births per woman <2 4-4.9

2-2.9
3-3.9

5+
No Data

Factors Affecting BR and TFR

Need for children in labor force Proximity to urban centers Education opportunities for women Employment opportunities for women Infant mortality rate Average age of marriage

Age Structure
Population age structure:
The proportion of the population in each age class Pyramid: many young, few old, rapidly growing Column: B & D low stable Inverted pyramid: more older declining popl. Bulge in column: baby boom

Useful for predicting infrastructure needs (social security, medical care for elderly)

Population Age Structure

The proportion of the population in each age class

 Baby boom 1946 1964 (added 70 million) Echo boom 1980 now (baby boomers kids) Approximate size = 300 million
Births per thousand population 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 Demographic transition Depression 14 0 1910 1920 1930 1940

Birth Rates in the U.S.

World War II Baby boom 1950 1960 Year Baby bust Echo baby boom 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Factors affecting death rate

People living longer
Increased food Better nutrition Technology Sanitation Water

To determine a countries overall health

Life expectancy: 75 years developed, 64 years in developing Infant mortality rate: # of children dying before 1st bday
8/1000 developed country 63/1000 developing country

Population Regulation
Those in favor:
1/6 globally dont get basic necessities We dont know the carry capacity of Earth

Those opposed
Lifespan is longer today thus life must be better People are our most valuable resource Raising a family is rewarding Large families are helpful to supporting parents in developing countries Pop. Reg. is a violation of some religious beliefs

Infant Mortality Rate

Infant deaths per 1,000 live births

<10 <10-35 <36-70 <71-100 <100+ Data not available

Child Mortality Rate (less than 5 yrs

From L.A. Times 2010

How can population size be influenced?

Immigration
Restricted in some countries U.S., Canada, Australia allow many in most countries do not

Environmental refugees
Where do people go when their environment is too degraded to live there?

Reducing Births
Family planning Empowerment of women Economic rewards and penalties

 2008 John Wiley and Sons Publishers

The Demographic Transition

Demographic transition:
Three-stage pattern of change in birth rates and death rates. Occurred during the process of industrial and economic development of Western nations. Leads to a decline in population growth.

Stage I (pre-industrial): Decline in death rate (high birth & death, then death drops) ZPG ??? Stage II (transitional): High growth rate (high birth, low death) Stage III (industrial): Birth rate drops toward the death rate, leading to low or zero growth rate. Stage IV (post industrial): ZPG low B & D

The Demographic Transition Transition

from high to low reproductive rate
Stage 1 Preindustrial Stage 2 Transitional Stage 3 Industrial Stage 4 Postindustrial High Relative population size Low
Negative growth rate
Fig. 11.26, p. 255

Birth rate and death rate (number per 1,000 per year)

80 70 60 50 Birth rate

40
30 20 10 Total population
Low Increasing Growth Very high Decreasing Low Zero growth rate growth rate growth rate growth rate growth rate growth rate

Death rate

Time

A Brief History of Human Population Growth

1.

Hunters and gatherers

The worlds population was probably less than a few million

2.

Early, pre-industrial agriculture

Allowed a much greater density of people The first major increase in human population

3.

Machine age
Industrial revolution led to rapid increase in human population

4.

The Modern era

Rate of population has slowed in wealthy nations but continues to increase rapidly in poorer, less developed nations.

The Worlds Human Population

2008 John Wiley and Sons Publishers

Major Regions of Human Population Growth

2008 John Wiley and Sons Publishers

Past & Forecasted Human Population Growth

2008 John Wiley and Sons Publishers

U.S. History of Human Population Growth

2008 John Wiley and Sons Publishers

Doubling Time

2008 John Wiley and Sons Publishers

The Human Population, the Quality of Life, and the Human Carrying Capacity
Human carrying capacity
The number of people that can live on Earth at the same time? To determine: 1. Extrapolate from past growth 2. The Packing Problem approach
Considers how many people might be packed onto Earth, not taking into sufficient account the need for lands and oceans to provide food, water, energy, construction materials, and scenic beauty and the need to maintain biological diversity

Human Death Rates and the Rise of Industrial Societies

Acute or epidemic disease
Appears rapidly in the population, Affects a comparatively large percentage of it, Declines then almost disappears, only to reappear later Example: Flu

Chronic disease
Is always present in a population Typically occurs in a relatively small but relatively constant presentation of the population Examples include heart disease, cancer, and stroke

Impact of HIV/AIDS
Primarily kills young adults alters age structure Drops life expectancy to about 35 years old Decreases # of available workers Increased # of orphans Overall: not a big impact on total world popl.

 2008 John Wiley and Sons Publishers

How Can We Achieve Zero Population Growth (ZPG)?

Delay the age of first childbearing by women Birth control
Biological and Social
Abstinence Induction of sterility Contraceptive devices

National Programs to Reduce Birth Rates

Formal family planning programs to
explain the problems arising from rapid population growth Describe the benefits to individuals of reduced population growth.

Thomas Malthus
Predicted Earths capability to produce food would be outstripped by popl. growth
Result: famine, disease, war

Was wrong, because human popl has been growing in the past 200 years
Right in sub-saharan Africa (famines)

Can technology get us out of this problem?

Case Study: India

Currently ~1.15 billion people
Will surpass China in 2030 (with about 1.53 billion)

Worlds first national plan Generally disappointing results

Poor planning Bureaucratic inefficiency Low status of women Extreme poverty Lack of support

 Established 1979 Restricted to those in urban areas Very Effective in reducing popl. Growth rate 1 child/family TFR 1970 = 6 TFR 2005 = 1.7 Free medical care Free education Preferred housing Better pension Locally administered encourage later marriage Downside Coercive and intrusive Sons are favored Evaluated in 5 year cycles currently through 2010 Current population ~1.3 billion, not expected to drop until 2030, after it reaches 1.4 billion

Case Study: China

Reducing Global Population Growth

Family planning Reduce poverty Elevate status of women

1994 UN Conference on popl. And Development

Goal: stabilize world population at 7.8 billion by 2054, endorsed by 180 govts Reduce/eliminate unsustainable pattern of production and consumption Improve health care for infants, children and pregnant women Improve employment & education opportunities for women

Chapter 29

Urban Environment

The City as a System

A city influences and is influenced by its environment A city must:
Maintain a flow of energy Provide necessary material resources Have ways of removing waste

Accomplished though transportation and communication with outlying areas

Urban Areas: Inputs and Outputs Urban areas are rarely sustainable
Inputs
Energy Food Water Raw materials Manufactured goods Money Information

Outputs
Solid wastes Waste heat Air pollutants Water pollutants

Greenhouse gases
Manufactured goods Noise Wealth Ideas

Fig. 25.9, p. 666

The History of a City

4 Stages:
1. 2. 3. 4. The rise of towns The era of classic urban centers The period of industrial metropolises The age of mass telecommunication, computers and new forms of travel

The City as an Environment

Energy budget Urban atmosphere and climate Solar energy Water Soils (made lands) Pollution

Bringing Nature to the City

Cities favor certain animals and plants Trees are important to urban environments Cities help conserve biological diversity

Urbanization & Urban Growth

Urban (metropolitan) area: City or town + adjacent suburbs > 25000 people Rural area: < 2500 people Village: group of rural households linked by customs, culture, family City: larger group of people, depend on resources from another area

Urbanization & Urban Growth

Urbanization stems from: people moving from self-sufficient lifestyles in rural areas to high density popl in city, further removed from sources of food & energy w/ high levels of pollution

Urbanization & Urban Growth

Degree of urbanization: countrys % of people living in an urban area Urban growth: rate of increase in urban popls caused by
More people being born there Natural increase (more B than D) Immigration: pushed b/c of decreased employment/economic opportunities in rural areas, need for medical care, monoculture competition makes it had to be subsistence farmer
Pull b/c of improved sanitation, medical care, better economic opportunities

Global Patterns of Urban Growth

Increasing proportion of population 1850-2000 (2% to 50%) Great increase in large cities (> 1,000,000 people): in cities in 1900, 400+ cities in 2000 Urbanization increasing rapidly in developing countries: water short, waste filled, high pollution Urban growth slower in developed countries Poverty in urban areas increasing: 1 billion people live in slum, squatter settlements etc

Urbanization in the U.S.

1850- 2000: 5% - 75% living in urban areas Migration to large central cities
75% of people live in 350 metropolitan (50,000 +) areas

Migration from cities to suburbs: 51% live in suburbs 1999 Migration from north and east to south and west
Since 1980, 80% of growth in south and west (most near coasts)

Rural rebound: 1990s, 71% of rural counties gained people, most from urban areas

Urbanization in the US

Spatial patterns of development Concentric circle city: develops outward in circles from central business district (NYC) Sector city: pie shaped wedges along highways (San Fran to San Jose) Multiple nuclei city: Several independent centers (LA)

Major Urban Regions in the US

75% of people on 3% of land!

Fig. 25.4, p. 661

Impacts of Urban Sprawl

growth of low density development on edge of city
Energy, Air, and Climate Increased energy use and waste Increased air pollution Increased greenhouse gas emissions Enhanced global warming Warmer microclimate (heat island effect)

Economic Effects
Higher taxes Decline of downtown business districts Increased unemployment in central city Loss of tax base in central city

Land and Biodiversity

Loss of cropland Loss of forests and grasslands Loss of wetlands

Human Health and Aesthetics Contaminated drinking water and air Noise pollution

Water
Increased runoff Increased surface water and groundwater pollution Increased use of surface water and groundwater Decreased storage of surface water and groundwater Increased flooding Decreased natural sewage treatment

Loss and fragmentation of wildlife habitats

Increased wildlife roadkill Increased soil erosion

Sky illumination at night

Traffic congestion

Urban Sprawl: Atlanta, GA

kilometers 0 32 0 miles 20 1980 Pickens Urban Sprawl Rural: Fewer than 320 people per square mile, or 1 person per 2 acres on average Suburban: Between 320 and 3,200 people per square mile, or up to 5 people per acre on average Urban: 3,200 people or more per square mile 10-county metropolita n area kilometers 0 32 2000 0 miles 20 Pickens Bartow Cherokee Forsyth

Bartow

Cherokee

Forsyth

Cobb Pickens

Gwinnett Barrow

Barrow Cobb

Pickens

Gwinnett Walton

Walton Fulton Carroll Fayette Coweta Henry

Newton

Fulton Carroll Fayette Coweta Spalding Henry

Newton

Spalding

Urban Resources & Environmental Problems

Produce most of worlds air & water pollution and solid waste Reduction in vegetation (give off oxygen, clean air, cool air, habitat) Importation of food, energy & materials Climate impacts: urban heat island, cars, factories, furnaces, A/C Noise pollution: impair hearing, causes stress, accidents, work inefficiency Impacts on surrounding rural areas: loss of fertile soil as urban areas expand

Advantages of living in a city

Less land used per person Mass transit = less transportation energy per person Recycling is more efficient Sanitary systems are centralized & efficient More educational and cultural opportunities

Transportation & Urban Development

Individual transit (car, scooter, bike, walking) Mass transit (bus, train etc.)
Problem if the city grows too fast to develop this

How Americans get to work Impact of technology on cities (working from home????) Drive alone 80%

Other 4%
Public transit 5%

Car pool 11%

 Leadership in energy and environmental design

Point System Categories
Green Siting & Land Use Water efficiency Energy & atmosphere Materials & resources Indoor environmental quality Innovation & design Certified Silver Gold Platinum 26-32 33-38 39-51 52-69 14 5 17 13 15 5

LEED

Award Levels

Urban Land-Use Planning and Control

Land-use planning Ecological land-use planning takes into account current & future needs Property taxes (pay for schools, police, fire, water & sewer systems) Zoning what is allowed & where Smart growth (prevent sprawl, direct growth, protect ecologically important areas, develop environmentally sustainable urban areas) Urban growth boundary Greenbelts

Solutions: Making Urban Areas More Livable and Sustainable

New cities and towns Ecocity (green city) Trees and climate-specific landscaping People-oriented People-involved

Vegetation in Cities

Chapter 16

Natural Disasters and Catastrophes

Hazards, Disasters, and Catastrophes

The Most Devastating Natural Hazards
-Earthquake richter scale (0-10) -Volcanic Eruption -Landslides -Tsunami scale 1-12 -Wildfire -Tornado Fujita (0-6) -Flood

-Hurricane
Saffir-Simpson 1-5

-Heatwave

-Drought

Natural Hazards in the U.S.

L.A. Times 8/31/11

Texas and Oklahoma are suffering from wildfires. The Southwest is parched by drought. The East Coast is still reeling in the wake of Hurricane/Tropical Storm Irene. So where should you go if you want to avoid pricey weather catastrophes? Oddly enough, Alaska or Hawaii. The National Climatic Data Center recently released a report cataloguing the most expensive weather-related disasters since 1980. The report includes a color-coded map that illustrates which states have suffered the most billion-dollar weather disasters during the 30-year span of 1980-2010. (The 2011 numbers have not yet been added to the map.) It may seem counterintuitive, considering the former's volcanoes and the latter's harsh winters, but Hawaii and Alaska are both in the pale blue category, meaning each state has only had one to three billion-dollar disasters since 1980. In the continental United States, the states that have suffered the least from expensive weather are Michigan, Maine and, ironically, Vermont; each saw a mere four to six billion-dollar disasters in the 30-year stretch. Adam Smith, a physical scientist with the National Climatic Data Center, told The Times there are two reasons these five states have been able to avoid expensive weather disasters. One, they don't have the dynamic environment to support severe weather. And two, there isn't a lot of property in some of these places -- so when extreme weather does hit, it doesn't hit anything that needs to be rebuilt. On the other end of the spectrum, the states with the most billion-dollar weather disasters include Texas, Missouri, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and South Carolina; each averaged at least one billion-dollar weather-related disaster each year for the last 30 years.

From L.A. Times 8/31/11

Hazards, Disasters, and Catastrophes

Natural Hazards
Any natural process that is a potential threat to human life and property

Disasters
A hazardous event that occurs over a limited time span in a defined geographic area where the loss of human life and property is significant.

Catastrophes
A massive disaster requiring significant time and money for recovery.

Average annual loss of life globally from hazards ~150,000 people

U.S. Trends
Economic cost of natl disasters is increasing
People moving towards coasts where more hazards occur

Disasters and Catastrophes: Taking a Historic Point of View

Natural Hazards are Repetitive Events
Ex: La Conchita

Study History to reduce hazards

Fundamental Concepts
Natural processes have service functions. Hazards are predictable Linkages exist between hazards Linkage exist between the physical and biological environment Hazards are producing more catastrophes than they were before. Risk from hazards can be estimated Adverse effects of hazards can be minimized

Natural Processes Have Natural Service Functions

Physical processes create a varied landscape. Periodic disturbance such as earthquake, volcanic eruption, and flooding create:
Fertile soil Available water Diverse land and life Aesthetic beauty (mtns)

Hazards Are Predictable

Monitor areas where hazards have occurred in the past. Statistics can evaluate frequency of a particular event. Predict based on geography of where hazards are most likely to occur. Ex. Earthquakes most likely near coastlines. Forecast events and issue warnings. Ex. Tsunami warning system in the Pacific Ocean.

Tsunami Warning System

Linkages Exist Between Hazards and the Environment

Often one hazard can create another. Ex. Volcanic eruption can cause a landslide. Natural hazards are linked to earth materials. Ex. Weak soils can lead to landslides. Earthquakes tsunamis Hazards can cause the disruption of ecosystems.

Volcanic eruptions can cause mudslides

Hazards are Producing More Catastrophes

Key Factor: Human Population Growth
Humans pushed into more hazardous areas 15 cities of over 10 million most vulnerable
L.A. is on the list!

Land use transformation

How we use land effects hazardous events Ex. Flooding of Yangtze River 1998
Land use shifted from forest agriculture thus increasing flooding

Risk From Hazards can be Estimated

Risk: product of the probability of an event times the consequences
Acceptable Risk: Risks that individuals or society are willing to take.

Adverse Effects of Hazards can be Minimized

Active vs. Reactive Response:
Need to be more active Land use planning Hazard-resistant construction Protection of ecosystems Evacuation plans

 Direct vs. Indirect Effects

Impact and Recovery from Disasters

Direct effects effect relatively few Indirect effects can effect all of society and can take years for recovery

Perceiving, Avoiding, Adjusting to Hazards

Regulations about what can be built in hazardous zones. Best adjustment is to avoid hazards. Common adjustments:
Land-use planning Control natural processes Insurance Evacuation Disaster preparedness Do nothing

What Does the Future Hold?

Major Disasters are increasing due to population pressure and poor land-use planning. Anticipating hazards will minimize suffering and economic losses