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Positioning Thin‐Film Photovoltaics for Success
A NanoMarkets White Paper
March 2008
NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-270-7010 | FAX: 804-270-7017
NanoMarkets
thin film | organic | printable | electronics
www.nanomarkets.net
Positioning Thin‐Film Photovoltaics for Success
In a recent report titled, Thin‐Film, Organic and Printable Photovoltaics Markets: 2007‐2015,
NanoMarkets predicts that the reduced cost of using simple printing and roll‐to‐roll manufacturing
processes, the addition of new capacity, as well as technological improvements leading to increased
efficiency, will position thin‐film PV as a major player in the PV market. As a result, the NanoMarkets Page | 2
report indicates that thin‐film photovoltaic (TF PV) solar cells will become a mainstream technology in
markets currently served by traditional PV panels made from crystalline silicon.
The report predicts that the $1 billion TF PV market of 2007 will grow to $1.6 billion in 2008 before
climbing to almost $3.4 billion in 2010 and $7.2 billion in 2015. The TF PV share of the overall PV
market was less than 5 percent in 2005, but is expected to grow to about 50 percent by 2015. TF PV
will penetrate the PV markets by offering a more cost‐competitive solution than traditional PV for
many applications, as as by opening up new applications though TF PV's unique properties, which
include low weight, flexibility, and ability to be embedded into other materials.
The most crippling limitation on conventional PV today is the high cost of producing the cells.
Conventional PV panels are are made using crystalline silicon via an expensive, step‐and‐repeat batch
process. Thin‐film technology could address this and other limitations of TF PV and open up new
applications for solar energy. Even so, the road ahead for TF PV is not all sunshine; NanoMarkets
indicates the technology will face challenges. For example, the recent shortage of crystalline silicon,
which initiated much of the excitement about alternative materials, is starting to subside, eliminating
one of the drivers of growing demand for TF PV.
The thin‐film technologies covered in this report include: amorphous silicon (a‐Si), cadmium telluride
(CdTe), Copper‐Indium‐Gallium‐Selenium (CIGS), Copper‐Indium‐Selenium (CIS), and organic and
organic‐inorganic hybrid. Each material approach has its own benefits and risks. As Exhibit I on the
next page shows, wide variety of materials – thin films and not exhibit photoactive properties and may
be used for PV applications in a number of different environments, even if only in the lab.
NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-270-7010 | FAX: 804-270-7017
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www.nanomarkets.net
Exhibit I: Materials Used for PV
Approximate
Material Efficiency Use
(Percent)
Page | 3
Gallium Arsenide/Indium 35 In lab only
Phosphide/Germanium
hybrid
The cost‐performance balance: Surging energy prices are driving a shift toward alternative energy
technologies. For PV, the energy source is free, which makes solar energy attractive. There are
drawbacks, however. Conventional PV panels are heavy, expensive to produce, physically inflexible,
and susceptible to fluctuations in silicon supply. As a result, PV have been used mostly in niche
markets or where special conditions exist, including markets where subsidies are available, markets
where other forms of electricity are not widely available, and markets where real estate is not at a
premium and it is convenient and inexpensive to deploy enough panels to generate the required
amount of energy.
The opportunities for thin‐film technologies lie in reducing the impact of these limitations and
expanding the markets that PV can serve. Until recently, however, low efficiency and relatively
NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-270-7010 | FAX: 804-270-7017
NanoMarkets
thin film | organic | printable | electronics
www.nanomarkets.net
undeveloped technology have prevented TF PV from capturing this opportunity. The tide is beginning
to change, though.
Changing landscape: With skyrocketing energy prices combined with falling PV prices, the PV sector is
primed for growth, with some observers saying that PV could eventually account for as much as 20
percent of U.S. energy needs. Page | 4
TF PV is less expensive because less material is used to produce thin‐film cells compared to
conventional PV. TF PV is produced by depositing thin layers of photoelectric material onto a
substrate, which enables significant reductions in the amount of raw material used. The emergence of
new manufacturing processes, including roll‐to‐roll (R2R) and printing technologies, will enable even
further cost reductions.
On the performance side, trends suggest substantial improvements in efficiencies of thin‐film
technologies in the near future. CIS/CIGS, for example, has achieved in‐field efficiencies fairly
comparable to crystalline silicon PV. However, while there has been progress, a gap still remains
between the efficiencies of thin‐film technologies and that of conventional PV, in some cases quite
significant differences. The result: TF PV must compete with PV on a cost‐basis or, where TF PV are
creating new applications, on a property basis.
Shining light onto the right markets: Where should producers of TF PV focus their efforts? Over the
forecast period of 2007‐2015, all the applications covered by TF PV are expected to grow strongly,
reflecting strong growth in the PV sector and the increasing penetration of TF PV into that sector.
TF PV will have the greatest competitive advantage in markets where cost and/or weight is critical,
conversion efficiency is not a priority, or where a characteristic associated with a particular thin‐film
technology is a factor. The fastest growing sectors are likely to be in the consumer electronics and
residential markets, driven by price point improvements generated by TF PV. These will not necessarily
be the largest value markets, however. A break out of opportunities for TFPV is provided in Exhibit II
on the next page.
NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-270-7010 | FAX: 804-270-7017
NanoMarkets
thin film | organic | printable | electronics
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Exhibit II: Opportunities for TF PV
Current Future Opportunities
Most installations use CIGS and s‐Si are likely to see more applications
traditional PV because as efficiencies rise. Organic and hybrid Page | 5
Large projects and
of high efficiency. But technologies do not seem likely to penetrate
utilities
some using CdTe. this sector both because of efficiency issues and
stability issues
Some use of CdTe and a‐ All of the TF PV technologies have some
Commercial and Si, especially in Germany applications here. This includes novel organic
industrial building and Japan materials which may be integrated with wall,
applications roofing and window materials to maximize the
use of real estate/surfaces
Some use of CdTe and Major opportunity for TF PV, because its light
possibly CIGS weight makes it highly suitable for self‐
Residential
installation. The ability to integrated with other
building
materials is also an advantage. Rural areas in
applications
developing nations may be especially attracted
to this solution.
a‐Si is widely used in This seems to be the area that some TF
calculators and in other manufacturers using organic materials are
small consumer aiming at in the belief that their low efficiencies
Consumer
electronics items, while would not matter so much. Some
electronics
CdTe has been used in manufacturers believe that there is really no
the past market here, beyond some niche solar battery
charger sales
Use PV including TF PV The military continues to be an active funder of
to service remote TF PV technology and is looking at novel
Military and
locations and on the applications, such as solar powered battlefield
Emergency
battlefield dress. Not necessarily a big market, but tends
towards the leading edge.
In value terms, commercial and industrial building applications will represent about 50 percent of the
demand for TF PV in 2008, with large projects and utilities accounting for the remainder of demand. By
2015, TF PV demand will be spread across a broader range of applications. Residential building will
NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-270-7010 | FAX: 804-270-7017
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account for about 15 percent, up from about 9 percent in 2008; and consumer electronics applications
will gain a larger share of the demand, reaching nearly 8 percent in 2015, up from 3.2 percent in 2008.
For larger projects and even central generation of electricity, TF PV is expected to soar in rooftop
deployment due to the lightweight factor as well as due to the focus on cost.
TF PV will see the largest opportunity in building applications, which include commercial, industrial, Page | 6
and residential markets. Because of the flexibility inherent in thin‐film technologies, TF PV can be
coated, laminated, or otherwise embedded, into roofs and walls. Integrating PV into building materials
has the potential to significantly lower costs. For example, the TF PV could be embedded into roofing
materials in an in‐line process, offsetting installation costs typically associated with mounting PV.
Several TF PV producers are developing products for this part of the market. For them it represents a
good market as it lacks the “winner takes all” aspect of the large project sector while potentially
accounting for a significant number of watts and hence using up available capacity.
One concern with integrating TF PV into rooftop materials is the ability of these materials to meet the
longevity requirements of the roofing market. Warrantees measured in decades for roofs are not
unusual, and it is far from clear how well today’s TF PV products could live up to these requirements.
But another promising application for embedded PV is the PV‐enabled smart window, which doesn’t
have such concerns. In this application the PV cells are not only low cost but also add new functionality
to the window; the TF PV will act as light sensors to signal when to change the transparency of the
window. This application will require a transparent PV and therefore is most suited for organic‐based
PV. Although not yet commercially available, organic and organic‐inorganic hybrid TF PV have the
potential to achieve very low costs per watt, low enough perhaps to drive PV into entirely new
markets. Demand for this type of PV is expected to grow from $1 million this year, to about $372
million in 2015.
Although it will also grow during the next eight years, and will probably be the basis for many cool
products, personal electronics will not represent a large‐value market for TF PV. TF PV has been used –
or at least suggested for use – in various simple applications, including headsets, radios,
thermometers, scales, deodorizers, wristwatches, clocks, stopwatches, LED flashing lights, sensor
lights, remote control units, testers, battery chargers, educational tools, fans, sunroof car fans, and
many others. A potentially larger area of interest involves helping to solve the power problems
plaguing mobile phones and laptop computers. TF PV could be embedded into the battery—a sort of
small‐scale version of the integrated building products—to extend the time between charging. The
initial goal will be for TF PV to provide a power boost for the existing lithium‐ion batteries, with the
long‐term goal of replacing such batteries. The problem here from a PV sales perspective is that each
PV array sold into the mobile phone market will be very small compared with a rooftop antenna, so
aggregate shipments of PV cells to this segment of the market end up be quite low
A large portion of all TF PV applications in 2007 will be dominated by a‐Si—the most mature of the
thin‐film technologies. As the other materials technologies mature, however, this is likely to change.
NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-270-7010 | FAX: 804-270-7017
NanoMarkets
thin film | organic | printable | electronics
www.nanomarkets.net
Two of these technologies, CdTe and CIS/CIG, will contribute a total close to 45 percent of the overall
PV energy output in megawatts. One of the most promising technologies, organic and organic‐
inorganic hybrid TF PV, will represent a relatively small portion of overall the PV industry in value
terms by 2015, but could be about the same size in megawatt terms as the entire TF PV market today.
Although not yet commercially available, organic and organic‐inorganic hybrid TF PV has the potential
Page | 7
to achieve very low costs per watt, low enough perhaps to drive PV into entirely new markets. In
addition to costs, organic PV will perform relatively well indoors and has the advantage of being able
to be created on flexible substrate. Demand for this type of PV is expected to grow from $1 million
this year, to about $372 million in 2015.
Weighing the risks: Producers could be concerned that some of the drivers for TF PV demand will
come to an end. As we have already mentioned, the silicon shortage, one of the initial factors driving
the development of thin‐film approaches to PV, is rapidly evaporating. In this forecast, NanoMarkets
has taken the view that TF PV will not be hurt significantly by the return of silicon abundance, mainly
because TF PV have too much to offer to be impacted by commodity supply.
There is also a risk that thin‐film technologies will not be able to deliver the predicted improvements in
efficiency. These concerns are real but will mainly impact the newer materials such as the organic and
organic‐inorganic hybrid technologies. And where TF PV enable new products, there will be the typical
high risks inherent in new product introduction.
Despite these concerns, the PV, and in particular the TF PV industry, is likely to experience significant
growth over the next eight years.
To obtain a copy of the NanoMarkets report, Thin‐Film, Organic and Printable Photovoltaics Markets:
2007‐2015, visit our website at www.nanomarkets.net or contact us at sales@nanomarkets.net or by
calling our offices at (804) 270‐7010.
NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-270-7010 | FAX: 804-270-7017