FxCurve

5/12/11
HEDGFX MODEL TRENDS
Quote EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF USDINR S&P500 FTSE NIKKEI DAX NIFTY GOLD SILVER Crude Oil 1.3416 1.5615 0.7746 0.9220 51.35 1244 5552 8643 6080 5050 1748 32.80 101.48 Current Trend Expected Trend TF D D D D 4H D D D D D D D D Comment CT CT CT CT CT CT CT CCY Services PMI ISM Non- Manufacturing PMI GBP USD Key Levels 1.3140 1.6110 0.7600 0.9370 1265 5100 8480 6550 5100 1756 34.50 95

HEDGFX
For Private Circulation Only
BANK RATES USD EUR GBP JPY CHF INR CNY AUD 0.25 1.25% 0.50% 0.10% 0.00 6.00% 6.56% 4.5%

1.4090 1.5340 0.7931 0.8750 1150 5647 8950 5580 4920 1670 30.0 102.50 Forecast 50.6 53.6

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Previous 51.3 52.9

GMT 930 930

*Hedgfx Trend is based on technical analysis and may not hold in serious fundamental shifts

BETA

hedgefx@gmail.com

FXCURVE Observation

HEDGFX

We just want to share an important observation. We are now witnessing a substantial divergence between the expected trends of the equities and forex markets. In effect, the equities are signaling risk-on while the forex markets are expecting the risk-off. This in own opinion is a significant clue to possible moves ahead. Given the liquidity and depth of forex markets, its players and price reactions; we bet we are likely to see a significant risk-off, meaning the equities markets are bloated at current price points. Given the propensity of equities to stretch valuations in short terms, we believe markets are currently stretching the rationale which forex and therefore by definition the credit markets are already pricing in. This is all on the back of our trend models, which are and have remained firmly bearish on Euro, GBP and commodities, while being slightly bearish on Yen and Franc. We would advise caution in the equity markets. We are heading into a critical week for the markets with substantial event risk and off-the-charts risks. The land of unknown unknowns. Caution is very much advised on all trades. Trading small is a good idea.

BETA

hedgefx@gmail.com

FXCURVE EURUSD

HEDGFX HEDG

The bounce off the lows on the back of liquidity swap event has been abysmal and lacked depth. It bounced off the oversold charts and has walked right into the resistances and failed, only ld intensifying the bearishness on the charts. We still dont have anything to turn bullish on. Only positive aspect as of now, is that the trendline has not been broken on the downside and prices are still holding the fibs supports of liquid event rally. liquidity

BETA

hedgefx@gmail.com

FXCURVE GBPUSD

HEDGFX HEDG

The long term charts still have not found any bottom. The bounce on back of the event was resisted at the mid-line. Unless we see some bottom happening soon, the fall to 1 s and possibly even line. 1.52s lower is open to possibility.

BETA

hedgefx@gmail.com

FXCURVE USDJPY

HEDGFX HEDG

USD has shown some bottom formation as well as its ability to hold the supports. However it s remains below key averages which still pose some major resistance in short term. On a longer term short perspective, USDJPY is one chart where USD has remained weaker. The fall from 95s to present prices have to see some retracement. Unless, a highly USD bearish news/ event hits the market we USD-bearish are unlikely to see a major drop. This remains a buy for now, and especially if it is able to cross and . hold above 79s.

BETA

hedgefx@gmail.com

FXCURVE USDSGD

HEDGFX HEDG

topish USD is showing a double-topish formation on SGD charts, though it is not yet confirmed. We doubt if this chart can see a significant spike as Singapore remains a oasis of growth and economic health compared to most economies. If there are any outflow triggering events, its very likely the price would be successfully resisted at 1 ed 1.42s. SGD is also important to track the effect on the Asian equities. Any significant weakness could mean more outflows from Asia.

BETA

hedgefx@gmail.com

FXCURVE Gold

HEDGFX HEDG

the Gold has been a perplexity given the quantitative easing happening all over the world, th price action has been surprisingly nonchalant. This is possibly due to deleveraging on back of central bank nonchalant. sales, bank sales and even MF Global liquidation; however this situation is not likely to continue for long. Also remember, any deleveraging event arising out of Europe will also hit commodities insync with other risk assets. Watch the trendline for the breakout.

Strategy: Wait for the breakout and markets to clear signals in Forex. Equities however are ripe for shorts at appropriate levels. Trade sma this week. small

BETA

hedgefx@gmail.com

FXCURVE

HEDGFX
HEDGFX TRADING CALLS
Date 28/11/11 29/11/11 30/11/11 Strategy Short Short Buy TTF 4H 8H Initiate $100 <1.3140 77.95 T1 $95 1.3000s 80.00 T2 $93 1.2860 81.50 SL $102.50 1.3240 76.85 Initiated Result Initiated

Market COM FX FX

Security Crude Oil EURUSD USDJPY

BETA

hedgefx@gmail.com

FXCURVE

HEDGFX

HEDGFX Forex Concepts

A unit of Agastheeshwaran Securities and Trading Pvt Ltd
No 212, Palace Orchard, Bellary Road, Sadashivnagar, Bangalore, India. Mail: Hedgfx@gmail.com Phone: +91 87490 94542

Disclaimer
Trading and Transactions in Financial markets - equities, forex , commodities and other markets are risky, and has potential for substantial losses. All the suggestions and information shared by HedgeFx and or Agastheeshwaran Securities and Trading Pvt Ltd (ASTRA) through its reports, websites, orally or through any other communications, are shared in good faith and to best of our knowledge and expertise. HEDGFX, ASTRA or any of its officials are not responsible and cannot be held responsible for any losses or risks arising from following these suggestions and reports. Under all and every circumstances, the maximum liability of HEDGFX is absolutely limited to the subscription or service fees paid by the customer. Users and Customers by using these reports, information and other communications agree and accept this disclaimer.

BETA

hedgefx@gmail.com