Economic indicators from leading local and international economists compiled by Internet Securities, Inc.

Includes consensus forecasts as well as individual forecasts, analysts' names and

methodologies.

CONTRIBUTORS
Ak Yatrm - Alpha Bank - Ata Invest - BofA Merrill Lynch - Capital Economics - Citigroup - Credit Agricole - Credit Suisse - Deutsche Bank - Dun and Bradstreet - EFG
Eurobank - Erste Bank - FinansInvest - Finansbank - Garanti Bank - HSBC - IMF - International Monetary Fund - ING - Is Yatirim - Isbank - Morgan Stanley - National Bank of
Greece - OECD - Oxford Economics - RBC Capital Markets - Raiffeisen Research - Scotiabank Group - UBS - UniCredit - WIIW

CONSENSUS
Updated: 2011-11-05

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Population (mn.)

72.80

73.60

74.50

75.40

76.20

Unemployment Rate (% of Labour Force)

11.90

11.45

11.00

10.70

10.50

744.75

793.10

837.00

1033.00

1181.00

6.48

6.27

3.44

8.50

6.70

10229.90

10747.40

11816.50

13708.10

15501.20

7.40

4.72

Demographic and Employment Information

Structure of the Economy

Nominal GDP (US$ bn) - Current Prices
Real GDP Growth (% Change)
GDP per capita (US$)
Industrial Production Index (IPI, %)
World GDP Growth, %

-2.30

3.90

2.60

2.70

2.80

Nominal GDP (TRYbn)

1111.80

1269.50

1479.10

1704.50

1925.10

Consumer Price Inflation (% Annual Change)

7.17

7.24

6.19

6.70

6.20

Producer Price Inflation (% Annual Change)

6.68

8.04

6.25

Prices and Inflation

Producer Price Index (Average of 12 Months)

Oil price, USD/b

172.26

79.60

110.90

115.60

120.10

124.50

-2.95

-2.90

-2.60

1.80

1.20

1.30

-4.80

-2.18

-2.33

-3.20

-2.90

1.65

1.73

1.69

Fiscal Information
Government Balance (% of GNP)
Primary Balance (% of GNP)
Govt balance, % GDP

Monetary Data
Foreign Exchange Rate (Local Currency/US$) - End of period
Foreign Exchange Rate (Local Currency/EURO) - End of period

2.46

2.41

80700.00

84000.00

94000.00

98000.00

105000.00

Real Interest Rateba

5.20

6.02

6.38

Exchange rate (year-average,TRY:USD)

1.50

1.64

1.68

1.65

1.63

Deposits - Local Currency (US$ m) End of period

Deposits - Foreign Currency (US$ m) End of period

Exports (US$ m)

74938.62

117726.13

127261.12

Imports (US$ m)

110092.61

191637.00

201977.27

Foreign Currency Reserves (US$ m)

Financial System

Balance of Payments

Current Account (% of GNP)

-5.40

-9.50

-7.80

89228.76

92748.06

-5.02

-7.64

-8.63

-6.60

-5.90

-71.78

-86.72

-89.80

4.90

3.90

4.10

4.30

4.30

-47.93

-72.74

-63.95

-68.00

-70.20

Foreign Debt (% of GDP)

39.39

40.58

39.56

Domestic Debt (% of GDP)

31.96

29.28

27.32

International Reserves (US$ m) End of period

Current Account (% of GDP)
Trade Balance (USDbn)
Import cover (months)
Current account (USDbn)

Debt and Resource Flows

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Recent Revisions
Updated

Institution - Analyst

Economic Indicators

Year

Previous

New

Change

2011-11-05

Scotiabank Group

Trade Balance (USDbn)

2012

-78.77

-76.80

1.97

2011-11-05

UBS

Real GDP Growth (% Change)

2011

6.80

7.10

0.30

2011-11-05

UBS

Real Interest Rateba

2011

6.75

5.75

-1.00

2011-11-05

UBS

Real Interest Rateba

2012

8.00

6.75

-1.25

2011-11-05

UBS

Foreign Exchange Rate (Local Currency/US$) - End of period

2011

1.65

1.75

0.10

2011-11-05

UBS

Current account (USDbn)

2011

-78.08

-77.17

0.91

2011-11-05

UBS

Current account (USDbn)

2012

-69.56

-62.57

6.99

2011-11-05

UBS

Trade Balance (USDbn)

2011

-84.66

-88.85

-4.19

2011-11-05

UBS

Trade Balance (USDbn)

2012

-94.84

-100.62

-5.78

2011-11-05

UBS

Exports (US$ m)

2011

128156.12

125738.08

-2418.04

2011-11-05

UBS

Exports (US$ m)

2012

137127.05

133282.36

-3844.69

2011-11-05

UBS

Imports (US$ m)

2011

212816.40

214589.87

1773.47

2011-11-05

UBS

Imports (US$ m)

2012

231969.88

233902.96

1933.08

2011-11-05

UniCredit

Real GDP Growth (% Change)

2011

5.81

5.90

0.09

2011-11-05

UniCredit

Real GDP Growth (% Change)

2012

4.08

3.20

-0.88

2011-11-05

UniCredit

Govt balance, % GDP

2011

-2.20

-1.80

0.40

2011-11-05

UniCredit

Consumer Price Inflation (% Annual Change)

2011

8.11

8.50

0.39

2011-11-05

UniCredit

Consumer Price Inflation (% Annual Change)

2012

7.31

6.40

-0.91

2011-11-05

UniCredit

Real Interest Rateba

2011

7.75

5.80

-1.95

2011-11-05

UniCredit

Real Interest Rateba

2012

7.75

6.00

-1.75

Credit Rating Agencies

Moody's Sovereign Rating

: BA2

Standard & Poor's

: BB+-

FitchIBCA D&P

: BB+

JCR

: BB

EIU Overall Rating

:B

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