Renewable Energy 35 (2010) 2881e2893

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Renewable Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/renene

Technical Note

Application of neural networks and genetic algorithms for sizing of photovoltaic systems
Adel Mellit a, *,1, Soteris A. Kalogirou b, Mahmoud Drif c
a

Faculty of Sciences and Technology, Department of Electronics, LAMEL, Jijel University, Ouled-Aissa, P.O. Box 98, Jijel 18000, Algeria Department of Mechanical Engineering and Materials Science and Engineering, Cyprus University of Technology, P.O. Box 50329, Limassol 3603, Cyprus c Centre de dveloppement des nergies renouvelables (CDER), B.P 62, Bouzareah, Alger 16340, Algrie
b

a r t i c l e i n f o
Article history: Received 7 February 2009 Accepted 18 April 2010 Available online 20 May 2010 Keywords: Stand-alone PV system Sizing curve Numerical method Articial neural network Genetic algorithm

a b s t r a c t
In this paper, an articial neural network-based genetic algorithm (ANN-GA) model was developed for generating the sizing curve of stand-alone photovoltaic (SAPV) systems. Firstly, a numerical method is used for generating the sizing curves for different loss of load probability (LLP) corresponding to 40 sites located in Algeria. The inputs of ANN-GA are the geographical coordinates (Lat, Lon and Alt) and the LLP while the output is the sizing curve represented by CA f CS . Subsequently, the proposed ANN-GA model has been trained by using a set of 36 sites, whereas data for 4 sites which are not included in the training dataset have been used for testing the ANN-GA model. The results obtained are compared and tested with those of the numerical method. In addition, two new regression models have been developed and compared with the conventional regression models. The results show that, the proposed exponential regression model with three coefcients presents more accurate results than the conventional regression models. A new ANN has been used for predicting the sizing coefcients for the best regression model. These coefcients can be used for developing the sizing curve in different locations in Algeria. The results obtained showed that the coefcient of multiple determination (R2) is 0.9998, which can be considered as very promising. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction Stand-alone photovoltaic (PV) applications may offer a promising alternative especially in remote areas (communities without access to the grid) as isolated small power generation for remote settlements. Furthermore, in many places due to the remoteness and cost, it is unlikely that main grid connection will ever be established; the need for power however still exists. Power systems, which can generate and supply electricity to such remote locations, are called decentralized, autonomous or stand-alone systems. These may come as individual energy systems (IES) or community energy systems (CES). The technology for power production from renewable energy resources is available and reliable so the penetration of the technology depends mainly on the economic feasibility and the proper sizing of components in order to avoid outages as well as ensuring the quality and reliability of supply. Nowadays, articial intelligence techniques have been widely used in energy and
* Corresponding author. Tel.: 213 551998982. E-mail address: a.mellit@yahoo.co.uk (A. Mellit). 1 Junior associate member at the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste, Italy. 0960-1481/$ e see front matter 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.renene.2010.04.017

renewable energy systems [1], such as in modeling, simulation, sizing, control and diagnosis of different kinds of energy systems, including stand-alone, grid-connected, hybrid PV systems and heating systems. An extensive review on the application of articial intelligence techniques in PV systems can be found in Ref. [2]. It is well known that sizing represents an important part of photovoltaic system design, and remains an active area of research [3,4]. The stand-alone photovoltaic (SAPV) system sizing includes the estimation of the number of solar cell panels and the size of the storage battery. These are very useful in determining an optimal and economic SAPV system. Several studies have been conducted on the performance of PV systems. In the literature, various methods, which differ in terms of their simplicity or reliability, have been developed for this purpose. The construction of the sizing curve based on the loss of load probability (LLP) requires the solar radiation measurement in the long term; however, these data are not always available, particularly in isolated areas, therefore, in order to overcome this situation several synthetic approaches have been developed [5e7]. Sizing of stand-alone PV systems based on synthetic solar radiation data generally presents an approximate solution and they cannot provide an accurate result compared to the use of measured solar radiation data.

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Nomenclature Approximation function Average daily solar irradiation (Wh/m2/day) ~ CS Optimal sizing pair b ~ C S Predicted optimal sizing pair hPV Efciency of the PV-array area ~1 , ~2 , ~3 Predicted sizing coefcients of the sizing model c c c A PV-array area (m2) Alt Altitude (m) C Storage capacity (Wh) c1, c2, c3 Coefcients of the regression sizing models Sizing pair CA CS Batteries cost (V) Cbat ~ f G ~ CA; b ~ C A;

CM CPV Fit G Gen KDT L Lat Lon Pc Pm Pop R2 SOC

Maintenance cost per year for the batteries and PV modules (V) PV-modules cost (V) Fitness Global solar irradiation (Wh/m2) Generation Daily clearness index Daily load consumption (Wh/day) Latitude ( ) Longitude ( ) Crossover probability Mutation probability Population Coefcient of determination State of charge

This paper aims at the development of a methodology for generating the sizing curve of stand-alone PV systems in isolated areas where measured data are not available. This methodology is based on the use of the feed-forward neural network optimized with a genetic algorithm (ANN-GA) and the concept of the LLP. Additionally, new regression models are proposed which are more accurate as compared to traditional regression models found in the literature. Neural networks and genetic algorithms (ANN-GA) demonstrate a powerful problem solving ability. They are based on quite simple principles, but take advantage of their mathematical nature, i.e., non-linear iteration. The idea behind the implementation of such a hybrid (ANN-GA) system is the adoption of an evolutionary algorithm for the determination of the neural networks weights or the neural networks architecture, or both. This paper is organized as follows: in Section 2, the formulation of the problem is presented and then a literature review on the sizing of PV systems is provided in Section 3. Section 4 presents a brief introduction on neural networks, genetic algorithms, and hybrid ANN-GA, while the methodology and the implementation are presented in Section 5; results and discussion are given in the same section.

2. Problem formulation and motivation A basic conguration of a stand-alone photovoltaic system with constant load [4] was considered (see Fig. 1). According to Egido and Lorenzo [4,8] the sizing pair CA and CS can be given by the following formulae:

CA

hPV AG
L

and

CS

C L

(1)

Given a location and a load, two general ideas are intuitive: Firstly, it is possible to nd many different combinations of CA and CS leading to the same loss of load probability (LLP) value. Secondly, the larger the PV system size, the greater the cost and the lower the

LLP [4,8]. The traditional problem given by Egido and Lorenzo [8] is formulated as follows: which pair of CA and CS values leads to a given LLP value at the minimum cost? The same authors have proposed a new technique for solving this problem. Recently, in some publications a solution for this problem is proposed. Fragaki and Markvart [9] developed a new sizing approach applied to standalone PV systems design, which is based on system congurations without shedding load. The investigation is based on a detailed study of the minimum storage requirement and an analysis of the sizing curves. The analysis revealed the importance of using daily series of measured solar radiation data instead of monthly average values. Markvart et al. [9] presented the system sizing curve as the superposition of contributions from individual climatic cycles of low daily solar radiation for a location in southeast of England. Therefore, the proposed models can give a better accuracy in the case where the solar radiation data are available in a long period. Unfortunately, in many cases, due to the high cost and the complexity of instrumentation needed to record them, these data are not always available. For this purpose, many authors [5e7] have proposed different approaches for generating these data in order to overcome this situation. Hontoria et al. [11], have used a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) for generating the sizing curve of stand-alone PV systems from CS, LLP and daily clearness index (KDT), for different Spanish locations; however, the proposed MLP needs as input the yearly cleanness index that is related intimately to the solar radiation, therefore the problem of solar radiation is not resolved. Mellit et al. [12,13] have used an articial neural network (ANN) architecture for estimating the sizing coefcients of stand-alone PV systems based on the synthetic and measured solar radiation data. In the present study, the problem is formulated as follows: is it possible to nd an approximate function which can generate the sizing curve from only the geographical coordinates and the LLP, f CA ; CS ~Lat; Lon; Alt; LLP. To solve this problem the suitability of the feed-forward neural network optimized by a genetic algorithm for generating the sizing curve is investigated in this paper. In addition, two regression models for estimating the sizing curve of stand-alone PV systems in remote areas were proposed. 3. Literature review and previous work on the sizing of standalone PV systems Several models have been developed for simulating and sizing PV systems using different operation strategies. The estimation of the excess of energy provided by PV generators using the utilisability method was developed by Liu and Jordan [14]. The excess energy provided by PV systems for an installation having a constant load was evaluated by Klein [15]. Siegel et al. [16] evaluated the

Fig. 1. Simplied schematic of stand-alone PV system.

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monthly average output, the excess of energy and the storage capacity of the batteries. Evans et al. [17] described a method which considers the monthly average output of PV elds. Gupta and Young [18] presented a method of predicting the long-term average performance of photovoltaic systems, whereas Clark et al. [19] used the average utilisability function. All these methods are based on the energy balance of the systems studied to determine their storage capacity and output. Other methods estimate the performance of PV systems based on the loss of load probability (LLP) technique, dened as the ratio between the energy decit and the energy demand. These are developed by Bucciarelli [20], Klein and Beckman [21], Barra et al. [22] and Bartoli et al. [23]. These analytical methods are simple to apply but they are not general. On the other hand, the numerical methods presented by Bucciarelli [24], Groumpos and Papageorgiou [25], and Chapman [26] present a good solution, but they need a long period of solar radiation data records. Egido and Lorenzo [8] reviewed the methods for computing the capacity of PV arrays and battery storage and suggested an analytical model based on LLP, which uses methods that are more complex and allow the improvement of the precision of the LLP calculation according to the dimension of the PV-array area and the storage capacity. The two most frequently used sizing methods, one employing an energy balance and a more complex procedure, which invokes the reliability of supply, are described and detailed in Ref. [4]. Hadj Arab et al. [27] applied the LLP for sizing PV systems for some sites in Algeria. A detailed evaluation of the sensitivity of a numerical sizing method developed by Notton et al. [28] has shown that the inuence of some parameters on the sizing, i.e., simulation time step, and input and output power prole, are very important. It is therefore important to know the daily prole at least on an hourly basis. The authors have highlighted that optimal solution can be obtained if PV contributes for 75% of the energy requirements. The cost of electricity generated from a hybrid PV system is also one of the decision-making parameters. Muselli et al. [29] designed a stand-alone PV system based on the irradiation derived from METEOSAT images. Sidrach-de-Cardona and Lpez [30] have developed a general multivariate qualitative model for sizing stand-alone PV systems based on LLP. They have also developed a simple model for sizing stand-alone PV systems. Lorenzo and Narvate [31] developed a new method for sizing stand-alone PV systems, which invokes the reliability of supply. A new technique for sizing parameters of stand-alone solar-energy systems has been designed by Agha and Sbita [32]. Lazou and Papatsoris [33] reviewed the economics of PV stand-alone residential household systems in various European and Mediterranean

Fig. 3. Feed-forward neural network.

locations. Kaushika et al. [34] developed a computational scheme for stand-alone solar PV systems with interconnected arrays, which was investigated for optimal sizing of the array and battery bank. The loss of power supply probability (LPSP) is used to represent the risk of not satisfying the load demand. 4. Genetic algorithm and neural networks In the following subsections, a brief introduction on genetic algorithms and articial neural networks is presented followed by the hybrid articial neural networks-genetic algorithm model. 4.1. Genetic algorithm A genetic algorithm is implemented as a computerized search and optimization procedure that uses the principles of natural genetics and natural selection. The basic approach is to model possible solutions to the search problem as strings of ones and

Fig. 2. The basic step of genetic algorithm.

Fig. 4. The principle structure of an ANN-GA system.

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population evolve over time through competition (survival of the ttest and controlled variation). GAs are algorithms that imitate natural selection and genetics and are used to perform tasks like search, optimization and classication [35]. GAs outperform the efciency of conventional optimization techniques in searching non-linear and non-continuous spaces, which are characterized by abstract or poorly understood expert knowledge. Furthermore, contrary to the standard algorithms, GAs generate at each iteration a population of points that approach the optimal solution by using stochastic and not deterministic operators. As a result, the search can be deployed without being trapped within local extremes [35]. A basic version of a GA operation is shown in the owchart presented in Fig. 2. This is a genetic algorithm template, which is a general formulation, accommodating many different forms of evolution. The genetic operations are: e reproduction, e crossover, e mutation. 4.2. Articial neural networks zeros. Various portions of these bit-strings represent parameters in the search problem. If a problem solving mechanism can be represented in a reasonably compact form, then the GA techniques can be applied using procedures to maintain a population of knowledge structure that represents candidate solutions and then let that Articial neural networks have been used widely in many application areas. Most applications use a feed-forward neural network (FFNN) with the back propagation (BP) training algorithm. There are numerous variants of the classical BP algorithm and other

Fig. 5. Sizing curve of Algiers location for LLP 0.01 and load 1 (KWh/day).

Fig. 6. Flowchart of ANN-GA.

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training algorithms [36]. All these training algorithms assume a xed ANN architecture and during training they change the weights so as to obtain a satisfactory mapping of the data. The main advantage of the feed-forward neural networks is that they do not require a user-specied problem solving algorithm (as is the case with classic programming) but instead they learn from examples, much like human beings. Another advantage is that they possess an inherent generalization ability. This means that they can identify and respond to patterns that are similar but not identical to the ones with which they have been trained. On the other hand, the development of a feed-forward ANN model also poses certain problems, the most important being that there is no prior guarantee that the model will perform well for the problem at hand. A typical feed-forward neural network is shown in Fig. 3. The training dataset consists of N training patterns {(xp, tp)}, where p is the pattern number. The input vector xp and desired output vector tp have dimensions of N and M, respectively; yp is the network output vector for the pth pattern. The thresholds are handled by augmenting the input vector with an element xp(N 1) and setting it equal to one. The LevenbergeMarquardt algorithm (LM) is an approximation to the Newton method used also for training ANNs. The Newton method approximates the error of the network with a second order expression, which is in contrast to the back propagation algorithm that does it with a rst order expression. LM is popular in the ANN domain (even it is considered the rst approach for an unseen MLP training task), although it is not that popular in the metaheuristics eld. LM updates the ANN weights as follows:

Dw 4mI

P X p1

31 J w J w5
p T p

VEw

(2)

Fig. 7. (a) The best architecture obtained by using the ANN-GA. (b) The best architecture obtained by using the FFNN.

where Jp (w) is the Jacobian matrix of the error vector Ep (w) evaluated in w, and I is the identity matrix. The vector error Ep (w) is the error of the network for pattern p, that is, Ep (w) Tp Op (w). The parameter m is increased or decreased at each step. If the error is reduced, then m is divided by a factor b, and otherwise it is multiplied by b. LevenbergeMarquardt performs the steps detailed below. It calculates the network output, the error vectors, and the

0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Fitness (1/Fit) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Pc=0.7, Pm=0.01 Pc=0.7, Pm=0.02 Pc=0.8, Pm=0.05 Pc=0.8, Pm=0.02 Pc=0.8, Pm=0.01 Pc=0.85, Pm=0.02 Pc=0.9, Pm=0.05 Pc=0.9, Pm=0.03 Pc=0.9, Pm=0.01

50

100

150

200

250 300 Generation

350

400

450

500

Fig. 8. The evolution of ANN-GA tness function for different simulations.

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Table 1 Statistical comparison between calculated sizing curve by using the numeric method and those obtained by using FFNN and ANN-GA. Sites Mean (ANN-GA) predicted Mean numeric method RMSE Covariance MAE MHOE R2 (%)

ANN-GA: Statistical features (4 9 30) Pc 0.9, Pm 0.01 and 500 generations Algiers 0.9957 Oran 0.9139 Bechar 0.8550 Tamanrasset 0.8540

0.9907 0.9303 0.8628 0.8536

0.00214 0.00276 0.00216 0.00051 0.00211 0.00134 0.00452 0.00265

0.0011 0.0012 0.0015 0.0004 0.0143 0.0197 0.0114 0.0121

0.00153 0.00164 0.00178 0.00015 0.0138 0.0462 0.0286 0.0164

0.000090 0.000030 0.000012 0.000005 0.000083 0.000081 0.000021 0.000054

96.20 96.10 96.70 98.50 95.20 95.40 93.35 94.08

FFNN-trained LM algorithm (4 13 17 30): 500 iterations Algiers 1.0156 0.9907 Oran 0.9107 0.9303 Bechar 0.8231 0.8628 Tamanrasset 0.8431 0.8536

Jacobian matrix for each pattern. Then, it computes Dw using Eq. (2) and recalculates the error with w Dw as network weights. If the error has decreased, m is divided by b, the new weights are maintained, and the process starts again; otherwise, m is multiplied by b, Dw is calculated with a new value, and it iterates again. The LevenbergeMarquardt algorithm is shown in Appendix A. 4.3. Articial neural networks optimized by a genetic algorithm (ANN-GA) Many different algorithms have been proposed to train articial neural networks. Most of them work for a specic kind of network, including a specic type of transfer function and neuron connections. For example, back propagation is used to update the connection weights for a given neural network architecture [37]. Using gradient descent of a continuous error function, connection weights are adjusted in order to minimize this error function. Back propagation cannot be used if the error function is not continuous or differentiable. Back propagation may not be able to nd the global minimum, because it may be possible for the algorithm to get stuck in a local minimum. In addition, gradient descent adjusts exclusively the connection weights for a particular network architecture, but the algorithm does not adjust the network architecture to dene the optimum neural network for a particular problem. Recently, evolutionary algorithms are able to evolve connection weights as well as network topology simultaneously. Evolutionary
Algiers: 36.43, 3.15E,25m
1

algorithms search for the global maximum in innite, very complex, multimodal and non-differentiable search space, looking for the best articial neural network without focusing on a specic problem [38]. The general idea of combining a GA and an ANN is illustrated in Fig. 4. Information about the neural network is encoded in the genome of the genetic algorithm. At the beginning, a number of random individuals are generated. The parameter strings have to be evaluated, which means that a neural network has to be designed according to the genome information. Its performance can be determined after training with back propagation. Some ANN-GA strategies rely only on the GA to nd an optimal network; in these, no training takes place. Then, they are evaluated and ranked. The tness evaluation may take more parameters into consideration than only the performance of the individual. Some approaches take the network size into account in order to generate small networks. Finally, crossover and mutation create new individuals that replace the worst e or all e members of the population; this general procedure is quite straightforward. The different steps are shown in the owchart presented in Fig. 4 and can be summarized as follows: Step 1 (initialization): Create a random initial population of N chromosome strings where each string contains l elements. Evaluate each set of connection weights by constructing the
Oran: 35.38, 0.7W,99m
1

R =96.20
CDF

R =96.10
CDF

0.5

0.5

_ _:Numerical method .:ANN-GA

0 0.5 1 1.5 Ca 2 2.5 0 0.5

_ _:Numerical method .:ANN-GA

1 Ca 1.5 2

Bechar: 31.38, 02.1W,806m

1

Tamanrasset: 22.47, 5.31E,1378m

1

R =96.70
CDF

R =98.50
CDF

0.5

0.5

_ _:Numerical method .:ANN-GA

0 0.8 0.85 0.9 Ca 0.95 1 0 0.8

_ _:Numerical method .:ANN-GA

0.85 0.9 Ca 0.95 1

Fig. 9. Cumulative distribution function between the sizing curve generated by the numerical method and predicted by the ANN-GA technique.

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Algiers:36.43',3.15'E,25m Numerical method ANN-GA FFNN

Oran:35.38', 0.7'W, 99m 1.6 1.4 Ca 1.2 1 0.8 Numerical method ANN-GA FFNN

2 Ca 1 0 0

10 Cs

20

30

10 Cs

20

30

Bechar:31.38', 02.1'W,806m 1.6 1.4 Ca 1.2 1 0.8 Numerical method ANN-GA FFNN 1 0.95 Ca 0.9 0.85 0.8 0 10 Cs 20 30

Tamanrasset:22.47',5.31'E,1378m Numerical method ANN-GA FFNN

10 Cs

20

30

Fig. 10. Comparison between the numerical method, FFNN, and ANN-GA for generating the sizing curve of SAPV.

corresponding neural network structure and computing its total mean square error (MSE) between actual and target outputs. The tness of an individual is determined by the inverse of the percentage MSE, and then set the initial population as the current population. Step 2 (selection): Select chromosome strings from the current population with a view to form a mating pool to be used subsequently for the offspring production. The selection procedure is stochastic in nature and the probability of selecting a particular partner string is directly proportional to its tness score. Such a selection procedure gives rise to a mating pool comprising N/2 number of parent pairs. Step 3 (crossover): The action of this most important GA operator results in creating two offspring chromosomes from each parent pair. Typically, the two parent chromosomes meet at the same randomly selected crossover point to obtain two sub-strings per parent string. The second sub-strings are then mutually exchanged between the parent chromosomes and combined with the respective rst sub-strings to generate two offspring chromosomes. The probability of crossover (Pc) is kept high. Step 4 (mutation): Randomly change (mutate) elements of the offspring strings where the probability (Pm) for an element to undergo mutation is kept small. The objective of mutation is to create new solutions in the neighborhood of the region represented by the 2N number of chromosome strings and thereby
Table 2 Optimal sizing pair for some sites which are used in the validation set. Sites The optimal sizing pair Numerical method ~ CA Algiers (36 430 03 150 Oran (35 380 00 700 Bechar (31 380 02 100 Tamanrasset (22 470 05 310 1.20 E 25 m) 0.95 W 99 m) 0.87 W 806 m) 0.85 E 1378 m) 4.1 0.87 4.3 4.6 0.85 4.5 7.2 0.91 6.7 ~ CS 4.4 Predicted based on ANN-GA model b ~ CA 1.25 b ~ CS 4.45

perform a local search around the region. Subsequently, evaluate the tness of each chromosome using the BP algorithm as the objective function and rank the 2N number of strings in descending order of their tness scores. Next, discard the lower half of the 2N-sized population and set the resulting population of size N to the new population (Gen). 5. Model development and results 5.1. ANN-GA-based implementation for generating the sizing curve Initially, the sizing curves for 40 locations based on one typical reference year of historical daily solar radiation (for example Fig. 5 shows the sizing curve for Algiers location) are constructed. The numerical method has been used for constructing the sizing curve (iso-reliability curve). The algorithm of the numerical method is summarized and presented in Appendix B. Therefore, for each sizing curve, 30 points are taken in order to construct the database of the sizing pair CA, CS and, each curve corresponds to one location (latitude, longitude and altitude). The sizing curves were calculated for different LLP values (0.1, 0.05 and 0.01); the total number of data are 120 (40 3) patterns. Once the database of various sizing curves is constructed, the next step is to use the hybrid ANN-GA algorithm for generating the sizing curve. The owchart of the ANN-GA is shown in Fig. 6 [38]. This presents the feed-forward network optimized by using the genetic algorithm in order to optimize the architecture of the network (the number of neurons in the hidden layers and the
Table 3 The PV-array area (A) and the useful capacity (C) for the above sites. Sites Algiers (36 430 03 150 Oran (35 380 00 700 Bechar (31 380 02 100 Tamanrasset (22 470 05 310 G (KWh/m2/day) 3.658 E 25 m) 3.756 W 99 m) 4.526 W 806 m) 5.625 E 1378 m) 0.773 4300 0.939 4500 1.211 6700 A (m2) 1.708 C (Wh) 4450

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Exponential model with three coefcients c CA c1 CS 2 c3

E 100

2 K n  CAmax CAmin X X k bk CAi C Ai nK i1

k1

(3)

Logarithmic model with two coefcients [3,10] CA c1 logCs c2 1

where CAmax and CAmin are the maximum and minimum values of output data in the problem representation, n is the number of b output nodes, K is the number of patterns, CA k and C A k are the actual and desired outputs of node i for pattern k. The computer code for hybrid ANN-GA calculation was developed in the MATLAB software (version 7.5); some functions available in the genetic algorithms and neural networks toolboxes were used in this simulation study. For several simulations, the best performance is obtained by using one hidden layer with 9 neurons in the case of the ANN-GA (see Fig. 7a) and two hidden layers with 13 and 17 neurons when the FFNN trained by LM algorithm has been used (see Fig. 7b). Since GA is a recursive stochastic operation
Table 4 Sizing regression models for Algiers, Oran, Bechar and Tamanrasset (LLP 1%).

c2 c1 c2 c1 c2 c1

Exponential model with two coefcients [4,8] c CA c1 CS 2

Regression model

Fig. 11. The estimated A and C for some isolated Algerian sites ().

Site

Algiers Oran Bechar Tamanrasset

1.3700 0.9337 2.0840 0.9136

0.1596 0.0318 0.3165 0.0274

0.2514 0.2017 0.1612 0.1710

0.3801 0.5712 0.8231 0.8507

1.6800 0.7448 0.1447 0.1436

1.1490 0.5983 0.3975 0.2767

number of iterations to use for training). The number of neurons in the input layer are 4 (the geographical coordinates Lat, Lon, Alt, and the LLP value), the number of neurons in the output layer are 30 (corresponding to the 30 points taken from the sizing curve). From this database, 36 sites have been used for training the hybrid ANNGA and 4 sites have been used for testing and validating the network, corresponding to the data for Algiers, Oran, Bechar and Tamanrasset. The number of layers and the neurons in each layer are optimized during the learning process. The hybrid ANN-GA used in this study considers the problem as one of multi-objective optimization. The solution space consists of all the different combinations of hidden layers and hidden neurons for all the architectures. Given the complex nature of the problem, a GA is employed to search the solution space for the best architectures, where best is dened according to a set of predened criteria [38]. A decimal coding system has been adopted for coding the chromosomes in the present work. The network conguration of the LM algorithm for the present work is 4e9e30. Therefore, the number of weights (genes) that are to be determined are 4 9 9 30 306. With each gene being a real number, and taking the gene length as 5, the string representing the chromosomes of weights will have a length of 306 5 1530. This string represents the weight matrices of the input-hidden and hiddenoutput layers. The tness of each individual in neuron is solely determined by the inverse of an error value dened by Eq. (3) over a validation set K containing patterns:

Rational model with three coefcients c C c2 CA 1 S CS c3

c2 c1 c3

0.8077 0.7346 0.8055 0.7793

0.7980 0.7140 0.8273 0.8353

1.0890 2.2400 2.4120 1.7579

0.2483 1.0670 2.5630 1.7340

c3

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Algiers:36.43',3.15'E,25m 3 Numerical method Exponential regression model:Ca=c1.Cs (-c2) +c3 2.5 Rational regression model :Ca=(c1.Cs+c2)/(Cs+c3) Exponential regression model:Ca=c1.Cs(-c2) Logarithmic regression model:Ca=1/(c1*log(Cs)-c2) 2
Ca Ca

2889
Oran:35.38', 0.7'W, 99m

2 Numerical method 1.8 Exponential regression model:Ca=c1.Cs (-c2) +c3 Rational regression model :Ca=(c1.Cs+c2)/(Cs+c3) Exponential regression model:Ca=c1.Cs (-c2) 1.6 Logarithmic regression model:Ca=1/(c1*log(Cs)-c2)

1.4

1.2 1.5 1 1 0.8

0.5

10

15 Cs

20

25

30

10

15 Cs

20

25

30

Bechar:31.38', 02.1'W,806m 1.4 Numerical method 1.3 Exponential regression model:Ca=c1.Cs(-c2) +c3 Rational regression model :Ca=(c1.Cs+c2)/(Cs+c3) Exponential regression model:Ca=c1.Cs (-c2) 1.2 Logarithmic regression model:Ca=1/(c1*log(Cs)-c2) 1.1 1.2 1.3

Tamanresset:22.47',5.31'E,1378m Numerical method Exponential regression model:Ca=c1.Cs (-c2) +c3 Rational regression model :Ca=(c1.Cs+c2)/(Cs+c3) Exponential regression model:Ca=c1.Cs (-c2) Logarithmic regression model:Ca=1/(c1*log(Cs)-c2)

1.1
Ca Ca

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.7

10

15 Cs

20

25

30

10

15 Cs

20

25

30

Fig. 12. Comparison between numerical method and the different regression models (exponential with two coefcients, exponential with three coefcients, logarithmic with two coefcients and rational with three coefcients).

(even though it is directed), it tends towards the optimum solution (s). Thus it gives best solution(s) near or equals the optimum(s). This is near optimum when multiple executions of the algorithm with different initial values of the population give the same solution(s). Fig. 8 shows the evolution of the tness function over the number of generations for several simulations. The probability of crossover and mutation are selected based on several trials. The procedure is repeated until the new generation ceases to improve according to the objective function. These results are obtained for a crossover probability (Pc) of 0.9 and the mutation probability (Pm) of 0.01, which present better optimization and faster convergence. Crossover operation is used

for global search (since it involves large changes in the chromosome), whereas mutation is for local search (with very small changes in the genes). At the beginning of the search, large values for the crossover probability and small values for the mutation probability were used. With time the rst probability is diminished and the second is augmented as the algorithm gets near the solution(s). Table 1 shows the statistical comparison between the sizing curve estimated by the numeric method with those predicted by using the FFNN and ANN-GA. As can be seen, the ANN-GA presents more accurate results than those obtained by the FFNN trained by LevenbergeMarquardt (LM), from the point of view of the statistical results.

Table 5 Comparison between the numerical method and different regression models in terms of the coefcient of multiple determination R2. Sites Models Exponential regression model with two coefcients [4,8] c CA c1 CS 2 R2 (%) Algiers Oran Bechar Tamanrasset 97.20 95.20 94.30 92.60 Logarithmic regression model with two coefcient [3,10] CA c1 logCs c2 1 R2 (%) 90.60 91.70 81.30 79.40 Exponential regression model with three coefcients c CA c1 CS 2 c3 R2 (%) 99.60 99.70 99.10 99.30 Rational regression model with three coefcients S c CA c1 Cc3 2 CS R2 (%) 99.50 99.60 98.50 98.50

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a
10 0

Performance is 9.9887e-006, Goal is 1e-005

Two hidden layers <4x24x8x3> N=500 iteration

b 0.4
0.35 0.3 0.25

One hidden layer two hidden layers three hidden layers

RMSE

RMSE

10 -2

0.2 0.15

10 -4

0.1 0.05

10 -6 0

50

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 443 Iterations

10

15

20

25

30

35

Number of neurone in hidden layer

Fig. 13. (a) The RMSE evolution. (b) The RMSE evolution over the number of hidden layers and neurons in each layer.

In addition to the statistical test, the normal cumulative distribution function (CDF) was used for testing the potential of the proposed ANN-GA for generating the sizing curve. Fig. 9 shows a comparison of the normal CDF between the curves obtained with the numerical method and those predicted by the ANN-GA method. It is clearly shown that there is a good agreement between the two series and the coefcient of determination R2 is between 96.1% and 98.5%. In Fig. 10, the sizing curves by using the numeric method, FFNN and ANN-GA model are presented. As can be seen the obtained curve by using the ANN-GA model is very close to the curve obtained by the numerical method. Based on a simplied cost function dened as follows:

hPV G

CA L

and

C CS L

(5)

Ct CA CPV CS Cbat CM

(4)

As example Table 3 illustrates the parameters C and A obtained for load (L) of 1 KWh/day, the PV-array efciency (hPV) of 17% and loss of load probability (LLP) of 0.01. From this table, it can be observed that a high PV-array area is required for implementing a PV system in northern locations compared to those obtained for the southern sites which have a very high irradiation potential of more than 5.5 KWh/m2/day. Additionally, the pair (A, C) is estimated by using the same ANN-GA model for 4 arbitrary regions (R1, R2, R3 and R4) situated in different geographical coordinates; the results are illustrated in the map of Fig. 11. According to this map, the results previously obtained can be conrmed. 5.2. Proposition of two new regression models for generating the sizing curve In Section 5.1, a suitable model based on the use of the hybrid ANN-GA approach has been developed for generating the sizing curve of stand-alone PV systems. In this section, two regression models are proposed which allow us to estimate the sizing curve and to compare these models with two existing regression models presented in Refs. [3,4,8,10]. Therefore, for each of the 40 sites the corresponding regression models have been estimated. The rst regression model is proposed in Refs. [4,8]; this model has two coefcients c1 and c2, so:

and by minimizing the cost function Min (Ct) for different (CA, CS), ~ ~ the optimal pair C A, C S can be estimated. As an example Table 2 shows the optimal sizing pair, estimated from the sizing curve ~ ~ plotted by the numerical method C A and C S and those predicted b b ~ ~ and C . This optimal pair can be used by the ANN-GA model C A S for calculating the PV-array area (A) and the useful capacity (C) for a given load (L) and LLP. Based on Eq. (1) the parameters A and C can be calculated as:

Lat
2 1

CA c1 CS
C1

c2

(6)

Lon
2

Alt LLP

C2 C3
8

Table 6 The mean absolute error between the calculated coefcient by using the regression model and those predicted by the FFNN model. Sites Regression exponential model with three coefcients: c CA c1 CS 2 c3 Sizing coefcients c1 c2 1.1490 0.5983 0.3975 0.2767 c3 0.8077 0.7346 0.8055 0.7930 FFNN-based predicted coefcient: c1 ; c2 ; c3 blat; lon; alt; LLP f Predicted sizing coefcients b1 c 1.6780 0.7611 0.1409 0.1445 b2 c 1.1446 0.6150 0.3992 0.2769 b3 c 0.8128 0.7320 0.7983 0.7805 0.0038 0.0019 0.0042 0.0007 MAE

The input layer

16

The output layer

Algiers Oran Bechar Tamanrasset

Two hidden layers

Fig. 14. The best feed-forward neural network architecture used for predicting the sizing coefcients (c1, c2 and c3).

1.6800 0.7448 0.1447 0.1436

A. Mellit et al. / Renewable Energy 35 (2010) 2881e2893

Algiers:36.43',3.15'E,25m 2.6 Exponential regression model: Ca=c1.Cs 2.4 2.2
(-c2)

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Oran:35.38', 0.7'W , 99m

1.5
+c3

Exponential regression model: Ca=c1.Cs (-c2) +c3 1.4 ANN-Based predicted Coef.:Ca=c1.Cs (-c2) +c3

ANN-Based predicted Coef.:Ca=c1.Cs (-c2) +c3

1.3
2 1.8 Ca 1.6 1.4

1.2 Ca 1.1 1

1.2 1 0.8

0.9

10

15 Cs

20

25

30

0.8 0 5 10 15 Cs 20 25 30

Bechar:31.38', 02.1'W ,806m 0.96 Exponential regression model: Ca=c1.Cs (-c2) +c3 ANN-Based predicted Coef.:Ca=c1.Cs (-c2) +c3 0.94

Tamanresset: 22.47',5.31'E,1378m 0.93 Exponential regression model: Ca=c1.Cs (-c2) +c3 0.92 0.91 ANN-Based predicted Coef.:Ca=c1.Cs (-c2) +c3

0.92

0.9 0.89

Ca

Ca
0 5 10 15 Cs 20 25 30

0.9

0.88 0.87

0.88

0.86
0.86

0.85 0.84

0.84

0.83

10

15 Cs

20

25

30

Fig. 15. Comparison of predicted (from FFNN) and target (from the exponential model with three coefcients).

The second regression model is proposed in Refs. [3,10]; it has also two coefcients, so:

CA c1 logCS c2 1

(7)

The proposed regression models have three coefcients c1, c2 and c3 that should be calculated for generating the sizing curve. 120 sizing curves obtained from 40 different locations in Algeria have been studied (3 LLPs: 0.1, 0.05 and 0.01) in this work. It was found that all of them could be well represented by the rational and the exponential expression. The coefcient of each model has been calculated by the interpolation technique. The rst is an exponential regression model while the second is a rational regression model given by the following formulae:

Algeria, but it can provide acceptable results for the north of Algeria. It is shown that the exponential and the rational regression models with three coefcients present a good accuracy with the numerical curve, and they provide better results than the exponential regression model with two coefcients. Therefore, in order to test which model can provide the best results compared to the numeric method the coefcient of determination between all regression models with the numerical method is calculated. The results are summarized in Table 5. From this table, it can be concluded that the exponential regression model with three coefcients gives better results than the other regression models. So far, this model has been used for developing the database of the sizing coefcients. 5.3. ANN-based prediction of the sizing coefcients

CA c1 CS

c2

c3

(8) (9)
In Section 5.2, it has been demonstrated that the exponential regression model with three coefcients gives more accurate results compared to the other regression models. Therefore, the exponential model with three coefcients is chosen for developing a database of the coefcients (c1, c2 and c3) for 40 sites. The feed-forward neural network is used for predicting the sizing coefcients. The inputs of the FFNN are the geographical coordinates and the LLP while the outputs are the three coefcients. Thirty six sites were used for training the FFNN and 4 sites have been used for testing the proposed FFNN model, which can be used for predicting the three coefcients in various areas in Algeria. From these coefcients, the sizing curve of stand-alone PV systems can be constructed.

c C c2 CA 1 S CS c 3

The coefcients estimated by using the different regression models for the sites investigated before, are shown in Table 4. Fig. 12 shows a comparison between the estimated sizing curve by using the numerical method and those obtained by using the different regression models for four validation sites. The validation sites correspond to the cities of Algiers, Oran, Bechar, and Tamanrasset. As can be seen from these graphs, the logarithmic regression model is not suitable for use for the south of

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Fig. 13a and b shows the variation of RMSE evolution and the RMSE corresponding to the number of hidden layers and the number of neurons in each hidden layer respectively. It can be observed that the one-hidden layer FFNN is able to give acceptable results but not as accurate as the two-hidden layer FFNN, which gives the best performance (RMSE 9.9887 105). Therefore, the nal architecture of the neural network adopted, shown in Fig. 14, consists of two hidden layers within 16 and 8 neurons in each layer respectively. For testing the predicted results, the mean absolute error between the coefcients calculated is compared by using the regression exponential model with those predicted by the FFNN model. The comparison is summarized in Table 6. Based on the results shown in this table, it can be concluded that very accurate results are obtained and the mean absolute error (MAE) varies between 0.70% and 0.38%. Fig. 15 illustrates a comparison between the sizing curve estimated based on the exponential regression model with three parameters and with the predicted one using the FFNN model. As can be seen there is good agreement between the sizing curves, which demonstrate that the proposed FFNN is powerful for generating the sizing coefcients from only the geographical coordinates and the LLP. 6. Conclusions and perspectives A methodology for generating the sizing curve of stand-alone PV systems in remote areas has been developed. This is based on the use of hybrid feed-forward neural network optimized with a genetic algorithm and a numerical method for constructing the sizing curve. The proposed approach needs only the geographical coordinates and the specied loss of load probability for generating the sizing curve. From these curves the optimal sizing pair can be estimated, which allows the calculation of the number of PV modules and batteries needed for a given location and load in Algeria. In addition, two regression models with three coefcients have been developed. It has been demonstrated that the proposed regression models are very accurate compared to the regression model reported in the literature. However, the exponential regression model with three coefcients is more accurate than the rational one. A suitable feed-forward neural network model is also developed for predicting the coefcient of the exponential regression model in other areas for Algeria. Therefore, the predicted coefcients can be used for plotting the sizing curve CA f CS . For future work, an attempt will be made to apply the proposed methodology for the sizing of hybrid photovoltaic system (solar wind). Acknowledgment

Step 3: Calculate Dw; E2.

E2

N X p1

Ep w DwT Ep w Dw

Step 4: If E1 E2 , then m < mb; Otherwise go to the next step. Step 5: If E1 < E2 go to Step 3 otherwise m m/b; w w Dw go to Step 6. Step 6: If E2 xed error or number iteration is achieved then stop. Appendix B. Numerical method algorithm Step 1: Initialization and loading data L 1000; Err 104; hPV 0.17; LLPs 0.01, G irrad. CS 1 Step 2: Calculate the PV-array (A) area and the useful capacity (C) SOC 0; Aux 0; C CsL; A CAL/(hPVG). Step 3: Calculate the state of charge SOC of the battery, at the end of the day:

  i AG SOCj min SOCj1 PV ; 1 C

The auxiliary generator is managed in such a way that, at the end of day j it keeps the battery fully charged if the stored energy is lower than the load requirements. Then,
1 SOCj ! CS 0EjAUX 0 1 SOCj < CS 0EjAUX 1 SOCj LCS

and

SOCj 1

where EjAUX is the energy supplied by the auxiliary generator in day j. If the simulation is carried out over a large number of days, N, in order to be statistically meaningful, the LLP value corresponding to the PV systems is given by:

PN LLP

AUX j1 Ej : PN j1 L

Step 4: If LLP > LLPs CA CA 0.05 go to Step 5; Otherwise CA CA 0.05 go to Step 5. Step 5: If (abs(LLP LLPs)) > Err go to Step 3; Otherwise CS CS 1 go to next step. Step 6: Saving the pairs CA and CS. Step 7: If CS < 30 go to Step 2; Otherwise stop.

References The rst author wishes to thank the Director of National Ofce of Meteorology (ONM, Algiers) for providing the database used in this study and the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) for providing technical material. Appendix A. The LevenbergeMarquardt algorithm Step 1: Randomly select the initial value of the weight vectors w. Step 2: Calculate Ep w for each pattern p.
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Calculate Jp wfor each pattern p.

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