ENDING THE YEAR ON A STRONG NOTE

Housing Starts Tuesday December 20, 2011

Housing starts edged jumped 9.3% in November to an annual pace of 685k, much better than expectations for a smaller gain to a rate of 635k. Although at their highest level since April 2010, housing starts have fluctuated within a relatively narrow range for the past three years. Housing starts are now 24.3% above their very depressed year ago level but remain a stunning 69.9% below their January 2006 peak. Gains were broad based last month. Single family housing starts gained 2.3% to an annual rate of 447k as multifamily starts surged 25.3% to a rate of 238k. New single family construction has been range bound at a subdued level over the past three years while new construction starts in the multifamily sector have been quite volatile over the same period of time, although they are trending somewhat higher overall. Housing permit issuance, often used as a proxy for future construction activity, gained 5.7% in October to a 681k annual rate suggesting that new construction may continue to rise in the near term. While beginning to improve, the outlook is still uncertain surrounding the time when a strong sustained recovery in the housing market will emerge. THOUSANDS OF UNITS
Forecast: Consensus: Actual: 625k 635k* 685k Monthly Nov-11 685 9.3 447 2.3 238 25.3 100 90 332 163 681 5.7 435 1.6 246 13.9 Oct-11 627 -2.9 437 3.6 190 -15.2 65 110 319 133 644 9.3 428 3.6 216 22.7 Sep-11 646 10.4 422 -0.7 224 40.0 59 98 327 162 589 -5.8 413 -1.2 176 -15.0 Aug-11 585 -4.9 425 -1.2 160 -13.5 57 86 301 141 625 4.0 418 3.7 207 4.5 Three Month 653 Six Month 629 Twelve Month 596 Average for 2010 585 5.6 471 6.5 114 2.1 72 97 296 120 603 3.7 448 1.9 155 9.1 2009 554 -38.4 442 -28.2 112 -60.7 61 95 281 117 582 -35.0 440 -22.5 142 -56.6 Five Year 1,039 Ten Year 1,438

Housing Starts (percent change) Single Family (percent change) Multi Family (percent change) Northeast Midwest South West Housing Permits (Percent change) Single-Family (Percent change) Multi-Family (Percent change)

435

435

425

808

1,150

217

194

171

231

288

75 99 326 153 638

72 100 312 144 626

68 93 303 132 603

113 163 523 239 1,063

140 259 688 352 1,481

425

417

412

761

1,113

213

210

191

302

368

Sources: Bureau of the Census, Department of Commerce via Haver Analytics. Data, graph & table courtesy of Insight Economics. *Bloomberg 2011 HousingMatrix, Inc. http://www.HousingMatrix.com All rights reserved. Reproduction and/or distribution are expressly prohibited. Hot Sheet is a registered trademark of HousingMatrix, Inc. Information contained herein is based on sources we believe to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed.