Académique Documents
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Forex Trading
by: G. C. Smith
Limits of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty The author and publisher of this book and all material contained herein have at all times used their best effort in producing this material. However, the author and publisher make no representation or warranty with respect to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this material for use by any individual or entity. The author and publisher disclaim any warranties (expressed or implied), as to the merchantability or fitness of this program for any purpose whatsoever. The author and publisher shall in no event be held liable for any loss, damage or omission by the use of this publication, including, but not limited to, any special, incidental, consequential, or other damages This publication contains material protected under International and Federal copyright laws and treaties. Any unauthorized reprint or distribution of this material is prohibited.
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Table of Contents
Table of Contents.....................................................................................................................2 Disclaimer................................................................................................................................3 Preface................................................................................................................................4 Introduction.....................................................................................................................5 Background.....................................................................................................................9 Finding a Broker.....................................................................................................................11 Money Management.................................................................................................................14 Setting up Shop........................................................................................................................18 Managing the Latitude Lines....................................................................................................19 Constructing our Charts............................................................................................................27 Analyzing the Trading Day......................................................................................................33 Averaging the Swings...............................................................................................................42 Using the Oscar Calculator......................................................................................................45 Some Observations................................................................................................................51 Make Your PC do the Math....................................................................................................54 Point and Figure.....................................................................................................................57 A Trading Day........................................................................................................................61 Tips and Tricks.........................................................................................................................64 Some Final Thoughts................................................................................................................68 About the Author....................................................................................................................70 Appendix..............................................................................................................72
VIDEOS
1. Introduction.......................................................................................................................24 2. Managing the Latitude Lines .............................................................................................26 3. A Long Roll Day...................................................................................................................40 4. Averaging the Swings............................................................................................................43 5. Oscar..................................................................................................................................49 6. 2008 Videos........................................................................................................................55 7. 2009 Videos.........................................................................................................................63 8. Point and Figure..................................................................................................................60 9. Tips and Tricks....................................................................................................................67 10. Real Time Trading - (1).......................................................................................................67 11. Real Time Trading - (2).......................................................................................................67 12. Real Time Trading - (3).......................................................................................................67
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Disclaimers
Each individual investors success depends on his or her own background, education, dedication, commitment, desire and motivation. As with any business venture there is always risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee the use of this publication will result in profits or success. The information contained herein is intended strictly for educational purposes. Nothing in this publication should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or to provide any investment advice. It is possible the author and/or publisher of this book at this or a subsequent time in the future may own, buy, or sell securities discussed. Information provided herein has been obtained from sources believed reliable but no guarantee is made as to their accuracy or completeness. The advice of a competent legal, tax, accounting, or business professional should be sought at all times.
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer Trading foreign exchange markets on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in the Forex market, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Readers of this publication should also be aware of the following CFTC disclosure rule 4.41 regarding hypothetical performance results: HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN ACTUALLY EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS MADE THAT ANY USE OF THIS INFORMATION WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
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PREFACE
The material you are about to read is the full and complete version of a condensed report entitled Forex Trading Made E-Z The condensed report, consisting of 25 pages, was written in abbreviated form to introduce traders to the authors strategy and is reproduced here for those who have not received a copy of the original report. It is important to read or re-read the original report especially the section on money management since it embodies the original concept I derived from martial arts legend Bruce Lee. In his movie, Game of Death, Lee envisioned a pagoda on a small island where each level is guarded by a greater and more advanced defender. To reach the top he must win at each level. The same is true if we are to attain the goal of earning $500 per day, starting with as little as two or three hundred dollars. My vision in writing this manuscript is to help you reach your level of success by winning in the Foreign Exchange Markets.
Published by
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INTRODUCTION
Youre about to embark on a journey like nothing you have ever experienced. By the time youve reached the half-way point of this book youre going to say something like, Maybe it really is possible to earn $500 Dollars a day! Let me introduce myself. Im G.C. Smith. Perhaps you know me from my previous eBook, $500 Dollars Per Trade. Maybe Ive met you at seminars weve attended. Or maybe weve exchanged emails in the past. Whatever the case, youre going to enjoy the trip Im going to take you on as we learn all about how to trade the Foreign Exchange Markets Forex for short. Its now a little after 8:30 PM, Pacific Daylight Time, on Sunday, September 13th 2009. Ive just finished watching 60 minutes on TV. I also bought a $12 pizza from Papa Murphys. While Im eating I just happened to see an easy trade shaping up on my PC. I see so many of them it sometimes makes me frustrated. Its like a patrolman watching speeders go by: I cant catch em all! If I can trade the Eurodollar against the U.S. Dollar from 1.4540 to 1.4520 Ill make twelve bucks which will pay for my pizza. Using the tactics youre going to learn in this report I did just that. It took about an hour. And this isnt even my normal trading day Monday through Friday. Okay, maybe Im showing off. But, now that Ive got your attention, lets look at my trade a little closer. Because this trade represents what could be your goal to make $500 Dollars a day or one million Dollars by next year. Theres no reason you cant, as long as you follow the rules Im going to outline and maintain the discipline its going to require.
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Lets look at a chart of the trade. Each candle is equal to five minutes in duration.. Well explain more about this later. Note how prices are swinging back and forth? Thats good. If they remained flat, no one would make (or lose) anything. And, prices were trending down! We sold 6,000 units (equal to $0.60 cents per pip) using about $190 trading dollars. We entered the trade at 1.4540 and closed it at 1.4520.
Thats equal to twenty, so called Pips. Twenty pips times 60 cents is $12. Again, right now dont worry about all the technical terms and words. I dont know an awful lot more than you about what all this means and I could really care less. But I do know how to trade. And thats what Im going to teach you. So, hold on to your hat, and bear with me as I try to describe what could be a turning point in your life.
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Lets start by crunching some numbers. How long do you think it would take to double our money if we made five percent a day? Thats right. Five percent a day! Before I answer that lets go back to my pizza trade. I made $12 using around $200 Dollars. If we were to make five percent on $200 Dollars it would be $10 Dollars (200 times .05). With just one trade we made better than five percent! If we earn five percent a day it will take fifteen trading days to double our money. Hard to believe, but true. Take a look at this table. DAY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 START 500 525 551 578 606 636 667 700 735 771 809 849 891 935 981 5% 25 26 27 28 30 31 33 35 36 38 40 42 44 46 49 END 525 551 578 606 636 667 700 735 771 809 849 891 935 981 1030 TOTAL 25 51 78 106 136 167 200 235 271 309 349 391 435 481 530
Pretty impressive wouldnt you say? If we could just double our money every fifteen days, the skys the limit! In fact, lets see what it would look like.
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1st fifteen days: 2nd fifteen days: 3rd fifteen days: 4th fifteen days: 5th fifteen days:
$500 goes to $1,000 $1,000 goes to $2,000 $2,000 goes to $4,000 $4,000 goes to $8,000 $8,000 goes to $16,000
In just a little less than three months we could be earning five percent on $10,000 Dollars $500 per day! Want to carry this a little farther? $16,000 goes to $32,000. $32,000 goes to $64,000. $64,000 goes to $128,000. $128,00 goes to $256,000. $256,000 goes to $512,000. And $512,000 goes to One Million, Twenty-four Thousand Dollars. Is this really possible? Yes! Is it realistic? Maybe! But, not without a great deal of training and discipline. For example. Right now, would you take $10,000 Dollars and try to double it? I doubt it. Its too stressful. How about $500 Dollars? Yeah, I could probably afford to risk that much, you might say. Whatever amount you start with, thats when your training begins. And, as you become more and more experienced, you can begin to trade larger amounts with more confidence. Thats the concept Im going to teach you. How to handle ten thousand dollars as if its $500.
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Youre going to make money. But youre also going to lose money. How much you lose will determine your net profit. Always keep that in mind. You must control your losses if you expect to make the kind of money we discussed earlier. Lastly, this is a hands-on trading manual. Im going to train you to make money the same way I trained many pilots to fly jetliners. Thats right. For many years, as an airline captain/instructor, trained by Boeing, I taught other airline pilots how to fly jetliners. So whats that got to do with trading? Just this. When it comes to flying airplanes, you want to do it in the safest way possible. And the same thing is true when trading! You want to do it in the safest way possible. Much of the material will be very specific. Much of it will be repetitious. But thats how you learn. Dont try to outguess the strategy. Everything youll learn has a purpose. Keep an open mind and youll do just fine. You dont have to be smart. You dont have to have a degree in rocket science. You just have to follow the rules and procedures. Just like flying a jetliner!
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What hes saying is there is widespread trading based on news events. For example, if you think an interest related report is coming out that is going to move the markets, you jump on it. But lets be honest. Do you think you can catch that kind of trade consistently when your competition is big banks with millions of dollars? I dont trade news stories. I never have. Its just not worth the grief if youre on the wrong side. So I would strongly encourage you to refrain from that kind of trading unless you have a really good crystal ball! Now that weve got that out of the way, let me be more specific. I only trade the Eurodollar/US Dollar (EUR/USD) pair, but my strategy works with any currency pair. If one currency gets stronger than the other then the numbers go up (or down). To tell you the truth I dont really understand why. The less I know about economics the less likely I am to be influenced one way or the other! I just know how to trade the numbers! Now, this is very important. On most days, at precisely 08:30 AM, Eastern time, and then again at 10:00 AM Eastern, a variety of reports usually come out that can shock the markets. We want to avoid holding a position around those times! If you want to check for all the daily reports from around the world go here: www.forexfactory.com Once again, for the few moments before and after these times, avoid trading. When the fireworks are over we go back to our regular trading pattern. We make our profits on small, consistent trades that add up to five percent per day. We dont shoot for a big killing that might expose us to devastating losses! If we dont reach our goal of five percent, possibly because of a very slow day, we dont try to make up for it. We simply wait for tomorrow to continue our efforts.
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Were not in a hurry. Were not greedy. We know were going to the world series even though were going to lose a lot of games on the way! Before I finish beating this issue to death, there is one more thing you must take into account and that is the meeting convened, usually eight times a year, by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). This is the group (commonly called the Feds Fund Rating) that defines interest rates. This has a huge impact on the currency markets. DO NOT try to trade during the few minutes before and after the report is made public, around 2:15 PM. Eastern. To obtain the dates, go to: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm#calendars End of issue!
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And thats what this chapter and the Forex markets are all about. Youre already home and the markets are still open. Forex is a 24 hour casino, right on your PC! And, unlike internet gambling, its legal. Nevertheless you must accept the fact there are millions of traders out there like a vast casino that all have the same idea. Make a bundle of money, and go home. Well, were going to rise above that herd mentality. Just like a cattle stampede youve seen in the movies. Do you want to be a part of that? I didnt think so. So, heres how we handle our money, plain and simple. Lets go back to my pizza trade. I made $12 using about two hundred dollars. Lets see . . . thats about six percent on my money ($12 divided by 200) (duh!). But what if I had lost six percent? Thats $12 also. Would you agree thats not a very good way to trade? We need to lose less than we earn. How? By limiting our loss to no more than two percent on any one trade. That way we maintain control of our money. Lets say we really had $1,000 dollars in our account. 2% of $1,000 is $20. We could actually lose three times and still break even if we earned six percent, or $60. We dont have to be real smart. We just have to do the math! And the Forex markets allow us to do that. We know exactly where to get in and where to get out to make or lose two percent. And many times well lose much less than two percent often just breaking even which is fine with us. Remember, our original goal is to make five percent per day. And that brings us to the hard part. What do we do when weve made five percent? We quit for the day. But why quit when were making money? you might ask. Let me ask you a simple question. What are you going to do if your very next trade is a loser? Are you going to quit then? Once again, I dont think so!
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Now can you see what Im getting at. Our overall goal is to double our money every fifteen days. So, maybe it takes eighteen or nineteen because we had some bad days. Whats a bad day? Its when we lose ten percent of our money. Thats $50 on five hundred. Once again, we quit for the day if our losses total ten percent of what we started the day with. Some traders will argue thats excessive. But, as well see, our strategy is so strong that its rare to have a bad day. Plus, a good trader will always quit long before that. The next day we start out like nothing happened. We have a fresh mind and attitude and pretty much know our strategy will overcome our losses. Were not trying to get our money back. Were not beating ourselves up because we had a losing day. Were in control! Now, lets recap all this. 1. We never risk more than 2% on any one trade. 2. We quit for the day if weve made five percent on our money. 3. We quit for the day if weve lost ten percent. 4. We also quit at 3:00 PM Eastern for a few hours until the market activity picks up again usually around 10:00 to 11:00 PM Eastern, sometimes sooner. If you start your trading day like I do at 8:30 AM Eastern (5:30 AM Pacific) since Im retired Im usually done within 2-3 hours. Often in less than an hour! If you have a day job you might trade after dinner instead of watching TV! Of course when and if you make a go of this business you can quit your day job. Now, heres a couple of tips to help you maintain your discipline. First, to keep you from going back to the trading table after youve quit, try using this website: http://www.webjillion.com/index.php Its called Temptation Blocker, and once its activated it wont let you go back to any program youve selected for whatever time you input. (You can override it but it takes an effort.)
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Next, heres an example of how I keep track of things as I trade. I take a shopping list and jot down my objective for the day - good and bad. It looks like this.
Each time I complete a trade I add up the score. I know how Im doing at all times. Theres no doubt in my mind. Try it yourself!
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That`s one reason I want you to fully understand what I`m about to teach you. For example, there is only one way to fly an airplane. You can go up, down, or sideways (level). But you can`t go backwards. The same thing is true with Forex. Prices can go up, down, or sideways, but you can`t undo what has happened to you in the past. In the pages ahead I`m going to teach you several strategies, each one designed to fit the activity of the Forex market. Think of it this way. If we are flying blind in a snowstorm we`re going to be using different procedures than we would if we were flying in the clear. It`s the same with Forex. We still want to get to our destination but we may use different tactics to do so. You can use these strategies by themselves, or you can use them in combination with each other. You may find one that works really well for you and disregard the others. That`s okay too. What I want you to be thinking of is this. I want you to be consistent. I want you to be a smooooth pilot. We don`t want to earn a nice profit today and then give it all back tomorrow. We`ll never reach our destination that way. My basic strategy and the one I like best is based on crossing horizontal lines I call Latitude Lines, similar to the lines drawn horizontally around the globe. As a pilot, if Im flying from Seattle to Los Angeles Im going to cross several latitude lines as I fly South, i.e. down. Im not going to turn around at San Francisco, because thats not my destination. Im going to keep flying until I reach Los Angeles. If Im flying from Miami to New Jersey Im not going to turn around at Charleston, South Carolina. Im going to keep going North! You get the picture. And thats the way it is with trading. Many potentially good traders are always thinking ahead too soon before they reach their final destination. So, were going to show you how to reach your destination by using a roadmap of prices on a chart!
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What do prices look like when theyre moving up and down? There are several kinds of charts, the most popular being the bar chart, but traders often use several types. On a bar chart the top of the bar is the high for the day (or period), the bottom the low. On the right side a small tick is made indicating the close. Sometimes a tick is made on the left side indicating the open price. Another type of chart gaining popularity and the one I use is the "candlestick" chart. The body of the price shows the open and closing price. If the body is black it means the close was lower than the open. On our Forex chart the body is red instead of black if prices are falling. The body is blue if the close was higher than the open. The so called shadows or "wicks" at the top and bottom indicates the high and low for the period. Lets compare the two types. This is a bar chart:
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We use a combination of three charts. A 15 minute, (each candlestick is 15 minutes in duration) a 5 minute and a one minute chart. We use the 5 minute chart to trade with, the 15 minute chart to help us determine the trend, and the one minute chart to help us enter the trade at the right time. What we need to know first is the overall direction, or trend of the markets. We dont want to be going in the wrong direction when we trade (or fly like what recently took place in Minnesota). Take a look at this five minute candlestick chart.
Can you see those blue horizontal lines running across the chart? Those are price lines which I refer to as Latitude Lines because thats what they remind me of when Im looking at a navigational chart. Each time prices passed from one line to another you could have made money. (Or lost money if you were going in the wrong direction!)
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We can actually make money when prices move up or down. When they are moving down it means the U.S. dollar is getting stronger. If they move up, the dollar is getting weaker. As a trader we dont really care. In fact it can be a distraction to assume just because the U.S. has won some kind of economic or military battle the U.S. Dollar must get stronger. The movement of the dollar relies on only one element: supply and demand. Since we dont know how much is supply and how much is demand, we must turn to what we can see on our chart: the current direction of prices. Lets look at another type of chart.
This is called a Heikin-Ashi candlestick chart. Notice how the candles are blue when prices are rising, and red when they are falling, or pulling back. Theres not much question here that prices are rising. You would have made money by simply buying on one line and selling on the next. Makes sense doesnt it? But hold on. Its not that easy. The problem is prices are rising on this five minute chart, but they might be falling on a 15 minute chart. This may be just a temporary rise in a falling market. Think of it as a jetliner. Were in a descent, but a sudden gust of wind pushes us up for a few moments.
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We can see that on our rate of descent indicator and you can feel it in your seat! After we recover we continue our descent. Thats what often happens with prices. So we have to be aware what is actually happening by checking the time frame of other charts. When we are actually ready to enter the trade we will often use the one minute chart to time things even a little better. Now go back to the chart on the previous page. Notice how the color of the blue candles tends to persist as prices rise? If we just randomly jump into the trade during that rise we might be getting in right at the top of a swing. Thats no good. Instead, if we wait for the pullback the red candles and then place an order to buy if prices start to rise again we stand a better chance of success. Watch this video to see what Im talking about. The video also discusses several trading indicators we will be showing you later on in the manual. Dont worry about that for now. http://www.forex-trading-made-ez.com/fx121409.html Remember I said earlier we must often use different tactics for different situations. In this example we were able to identify that a choppy period had developed which allowed us to achieve our five percent goal in just three trades. Ive often been asked exactly how I trade the latitude lines the way I do. There are a number of tricks and specific tactics I have learned over the years, that Im going to share with you now. If you are an experienced trader you will know what Im discussing. If you are just starting out you will see I refer to ideas and indicators you will be learning about later. In that case you can come back to this page and review these tactics as you learn more. First of all, I usually look for a choppy day, but that's really not that important. I can always trade the latitude lines on a "long roll" day, as you will see on many of my videos. Second, I try to determine about how far prices might be swinging back and forth from their highs and lows on a five minute chart. Let's say it's 30 pips. I'll take one-third of that distance and use it for my projected profit, in this case 10 pips. I dont always trade exactly from line to line. I may buy at 1.4750 but exit at 1.4756 if Im shooting for a six pip profit.
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For example, if the swings are about 20 pips I may use a 6-7 pip profit, and so forth. I just want enough wiggle room to make a profit when lines are crossed. Sometimes I see that a trade may be turning into a longer move than just moving from one trading line to another. I may see that by observing the 15 minute chart. In that case I might be able to shoot for a lot more pips. I always start the trade with a stop loss equal to one-and-a-half times my profit. 10 pip profit, 15 pip stop. 6 pips, 9 pip stop. And so on. Of course as soon as prices have stabilized and are moving in my direction I tighten up the stop as much as possible usually five-to-ten pips away from prices, depending on volatility. I keep moving it as the trade goes in my favor, never in the wrong direction. I get stopped out often, but I never get badly hurt. Once in a while a trade turns on me right after the fill and I get stopped out at the max -- perhaps 15 pips. In that case I stop all trading and walk away for maybe a half hour. I do that because there is always that tendency to "get back at the market!" I'm sure you know how that is if youve done much trading. Now, I'm going to let you in on a little secret. People tell me they are amazed how I can pick a successful trade so often. The fact is are you ready for this? -- I GUESS! That's right, I simply try to guess where prices might be headed and get a limit order in front of it. (A limit order is an order that can only be filled at the price you specify.) If I'm wrong and prices go in the opposite direction I'm not in the trade. In that case I just cancel the order and wait for another opportunity. Now, why do I pick a particular latitude line to trade? Over the years I've observed that once a "round" number is crossed, (like 4120, 4130, or 3960, 3950), prices often keep going in that direction. It's as if the Forex crowd sees that as "past history" and wont let prices go back to the past! Of course that's not always true. That's why we use stops! What are stops? Those are orders we place under or above our trade which will be executed if prices move against us.
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What do I use most to help me guess? Other than the EMA's on the 5 and 15 min. charts, I use the trading line on the 1 and 5 min. charts. Often I back it up with Point and Figure (P&F). I know that once a three box reversal occurs, prices usually keep moving in that direction. (Ill be teaching you all about P&F in Chapter 12.) Of course I also use the color change on the Heikin-Ashi candles to help me determine where prices might be headed. Finally, I also watch the bars and signal line on the 5 minute MACD chart to show the current state of prices -- whether they've bottomed, peaked, or in-transit. I know this all sounds complicated right now. But once you have your charts set up and understand what each one is telling you, it will become second nature. Think of it as sitting in the cockpit of a jetliner. There are dozens of dials in front of you. But we dont look at all of them all at once. We scan them. We use the one that is most important at the time like altitude or airspeed. Youll do the same with a Forex chart! Before I finish this chapter let me clear up any confusion you might have on how we figure how much money to use on any one trade. OandA uses a system of units to trade with. To me it is very simple, but if you are used to trading with lots you may want to understand how units work also. Lets start with pips. A pip is like a point (dollar) in stocks. A pip, just like a stock, can have a different value depending on how much you have invested in the trade. When we trade with units, 1000 units equal ten cents per pip. If we were using 1000 units and we earned 10 pips we would make one dollar. Go here to calculate how many units to use www.forexcalc.com If you are trading with OandA and using $100, you would be allowed to trade about 3,400 units with your one hundred dollars (at 50:1 margin). You would earn $3.40 on a ten pip profit. Now, watch some of these videos to learn more about this strategy: http://www.forex-trading-made-ez.com/heikin-ashi.html http://www.forex-trading-made-ez.com/line.html
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Next, we want to set up our exponential moving averages. There are two of them, a 30 period bar, (colored red) which means thirty 5 minute bars will be averaged (with the last few bars weighted exponential), and a 20 bar average which we will color green. Click on Add Study at the left bottom and select EMA. Again, at the bottom change the 14 to 20 and click the plus + sign next to it. Click your cursor on the line displayed and change the color to green. Do the same thing again only change the 14 to 30, and color the line red.
Next, we want to set up the Stochastic index at the bottom of our chart. Stochastics are based on the idea that as prices rise the closing price for that time frame (or bar) tends to settle close to the top of the highest price registered for that time frame. This happens because traders are stimulated to buy as prices move higher. The reverse is true in a decline.
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When used with a one minute chart its fairly accurate, but tends to lag progressively more and more when used with a longer time frame, like a 15 minute chart. I modify it in an unusual way and call it my trading line. Click the Add Study button again and select Slow Stochastics. Change the 14 to 8, leave the 3 as is and click on the +. Youll see two lines appear at the bottom of the chart. One will be sort of jerky and the other smoother. I use just the smooth line. (If youre familiar with stochastics, its the %D line.) I hide the other line (%K) by clicking on it and coloring it black so it blends into the background. The line were hiding is much faster, but can give you a false sense of direction because it moves so quickly. Now we need to give it some framework to help us use it. Stochastics rarely move much higher than 80 or lower than 20. Thats why we put in two horizontal lines at 80 and 20. Click on the icon at the top right of the chart (it looks like a pencil) and select Horizontal Trendline. Move it to the 80 level and click on it. Do the same thing again and place it at the 20 level. It doesnt have to be exact. Place another line at mid-level, 50, and color it green. That will complete our stochastic indicator. You can expand or contract it by clicking and holding the top of the index frame while moving your mouse up and down. Remember, were doing all these adjustments just on the 5 minute chart. Well create the 1 and 15 minute charts by simply copying the 5 minute chart. We do that by clicking on the icon at the top far right of our chart. It looks like this: We then change the chart weve copied to the time frame we want. When finished we want to be sure to save all of them by clicking on Tools=>Save Current Layout, found on the platform page of the trading website. To create the Latitude Lines we use the same procedure as the stochastic 20/80 lines. We simply place them at whatever price level we want to use. It could be every ten pips on a 5 minute chart, or perhaps every twenty pips on a 15 minute chart. I color the first one blue and then Duplicate the rest of them at the selected levels.
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The next chart I want to show you is called a Heikin-Ashi chart. It also uses candlesticks but displays them differently. If prices are rising the color of the candlesticks tend to persist until prices change direction. Heres what it looks like.
Note how the candlesticks remained red all the way down, and then sort of stair-stepped all the way back up? And, look at all the Latitude lines that were crossed up and down! To create this chart is very easy. Simply click on Heikin-Ashi from the pull down menu at the top of the chart. Now I want to point out another use of moving averages on this type of chart. I learned this many years ago from a technical analyst I met in Honolulu at Shearson, Hammill. His name was Richard Donchian and he is now considered one of the pioneers in this business. Look at the top left of the chart above. Note the EMA (3) and SMA (18). Once these moving averages (MAs) cross over decisively, prices may be getting ready to reverse direction. If instead they simply bounce off one another they may still have a way to go in the current direction.
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The next, and last, thing I want to talk about is an indicator I have used for many years, both with stocks and the Forex markets. Its called a Moving Average Convergence and Divergence, or MACD for short. Rather than go into a detailed discussion of its use here, I would suggest you take a moment and watch this video. Its important because it is the first step we must take to help us determine the major direction of prices. Watch it now: http://www.forex-trading-made-ez.com/fxdayone.html Im sure youre beginning to wonder if were ever going to get to the trading business. But I can assure you all of this is necessary. You wouldnt fly a plane without instruments. The same is true of Forex. We need something to help us stay on course. Always keep in mind a fair amount of work goes in to producing a profit. Is it worth it?
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How long would you have to work to earn $500? A day? Two days? A week? I'm a great believer in the concept that we're paid for what we're worth. If we're out of work we're worth nothing! If we're a CEO we might be earning $500 an hour. So the effort we put in to earn $500 or more is equal to the time we spend doing the work to produce these results. I don't know how to put it any other way. Before we finish this chapter I want to touch on an important part of forex trading. I mentioned earlier the number of units you can buy depends on the leverage (margin) you are using. If you are using 50:1 leverage, as I do, you could buy or sell around 3,400 units for each $100 you have in your account. If you use, lets say, 20:1 leverage you could only buy or sell about 1,700 per $100. Many firms allow the use of as much as 400:1 margin. This is way too much and you risk the chance of losing most of your cash on just one bad trade. You may also be forced out of your trade by what is commonly called a margin call when your trade reaches a certain limit. All of that is unnecessary. I easily make 5% using just 50:1 margin. And most of the time Im only using a portion of my cash on each trade. Well cover more of this in later chapters, but for now just keep in mind the higher the leverage the riskier the trade. Ill leave you with this one thought. In October, 1929 the New York stock exchange collapsed. One of the causes of the collapse was the high volume of stocks that were purchased with only 10% down. In other words, a hundred dollar stock had only to move to $90 and you were wiped out!
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Choppy Day
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Look at the choppy day chart again. Notice how even the trading line at the bottom is choppy compared to the long roll day. In a choppy market we have to be on our toes. We have to almost watch the screen constantly. Now look at the long roll day. There are wide swings up, then sizeable swings down. If we can catch just one of those swings we could make our five percent in one trade. But, heres the problem. Most traders are afraid to hold a trade for that long. Theyve been told, You cant go broke takin a profit! They simply cant believe prices will keep going their way. They get out too soon when they should actually be adding to their position. As I said earlier, they turn around at San Francisco instead of flying on to LA. Well, Im going to show you how to overcome that fear of losing a profit by explaining the nature of price moves in the Forex market. We already know we dont trade when news events are imminent. Not too long ago the Feds cut interest rates by percent. It shocked the dollar, plunging it to an all time low against the Euro. But what about normal price swings during the trading day. An interesting phenomenon often occurs. Take a look at the next page. Prices started swinging upwards right after noon, 12:00 p.m. Pacific time (GMT-8), December 23rd 2009. They began making higher highs each time. We should only be buying this kind of market. Had we done so, we would have caught a number of latitude lines. But, more importantly, we would have felt confident trading these swings. Why? Because each one rose more than the previous! Take a look at P1 to P2. It rose 14 pips. Here are the actual numbers: P1- P2 P3- P4 P5- P6 P7- P8 P9- P10 4324 to 4338, 4324 to 4343, 4331 to 4357, 4333 to 4371, 4348 to 4418, 14 pips 19 pips 26 pips 38 pips 70 pips
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This sort of thing happens all the time. As we get into the trading day the swings often become progressively wider. Then, as the day begins to finish up, the swings contract until theyre often nearly flat. Why is this important to know? Because price movements have a tendency to repeat themselves over and over as they trend up and down. In fact they tend to overshoot the next move in a busy market (and undershoot as the markets become quiet). Lets look at this a little closer. By the time prices have moved from P5 to P6 we are pretty much convinced they are in an uptrend. As prices begin to retract we start thinking about the next upswing. Where will prices stop retracting and start up again? Well, we dont know that right now. In fact we will only know that in hindsight when prices begin moving higher. How much higher?
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There are many ideas published on just this subject. How much does it take to convince you a turnaround has occurred? I personally use a figure that is 25% of the previous upswing, in this case P5 to P6, or 26 pips. This is simply my choice and many traders use 10%, 15%, 20%. It doesnt make a lot of difference except the lower the percentage the more likely you are to be filled prematurely. In other words youve jumped in too soon! The higher the percentage the more likely a reversal has actually occurred. In our case we take 26 (pips), multiplied by 25% and we get about 7 pips. We assume if prices move 7 pips up from their low they most likely will keep going. But that doesnt always happen. Many times they move up and then turn around on us and continue lower. Thats why we use a stop order. Whats that? Its an order we place underneath our trade which will sell us out if prices begin to fall. We actually have two orders in place when we are trading. The first is the target price where we will exit with a profit, and the stop order where we are sold out, usually at a loss. Many times, if prices move higher, we can move the stop order higher so we will lose less money if we are stopped out. Think of it this way. What if prices turn around after weve been filled. They start going down . . and down . . until we realize theyre going lower. So, we cant let prices go too far. Were losing money on every pip that prices go lower. If we dont have a stop loss order in place were going to be hurt. Thats especially true if our PC restarts or we lose the internet connection. Prices could fall sharply while were offline. Now lets go back to our trade. On the next page Ive enlarged the chart showing the P5 point, which Ive renamed P1, and P6, which is now P2. From now on thats how we view this kind of trade: P1-P2-P3. What were assuming will occur is the price movement from P1 to P2 will be at least as much as P3 to the next high (P4). We already know P1 to P2 is 26 pips. If P3 is 4333, and we add 26 pips we would place our target at 4359 (4333 + 26).
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But how are we going to determine P3 when prices are falling? What can we use to help us pinpoint that elusive P3 point? First of all, it doesnt have to be exact. We do know we want to enter the trade about 7 pips up from P3, whatever it might be. Do you remember when we were using latitude line trading we would place our order on the next higher line above prices? We can do the same thing with P3. Each time prices make a new low as they decline toward P3 we could simply add 7 to the new low. However, there are additional ways to help us determine if P3 is being made. One of them is to watch for a color change of the Heikin-Ashi candlesticks, as well as the MACD bars at the bottom. Note how the candlesticks changed color above? Later on, in my chapter on Tips and Tricks, Im going to show you how to refine and further determine if P3 has actually been made. But for now lets see how this trade would play out if 4333 became the actual low (which it was).
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1. A low is made at 4333. 7 pips up from the low we place a buy order at 4340 (4333 plus 7) for X number of units. Well get to that in a minute. 2. The next upswing should be at least 26 pips (P1 to P2). 4333 plus 26 is 4359. That will be our target. Thats where we will place our exit order. 3. If we enter the trade at 4340, and exit at 4359 we will make 19 pips. 4. But wait. Theres more. If prices do continue higher we can add to our position with what we call an add-on. Since we are now ahead on the trade it is relatively painless. We do it by placing another buy order about half way up from our entry point to our target. In this case about 4350. I usually use about the same number of units as the original entry order. But this can vary depending on how confident I am of the trade and how close Im getting to earning my five percent. I may end up simply adding half my original position. 5. At the same time that I place the trade I need to figure out how far I can let prices fall before I must abandon the trade if they turn on me and start down. I use a figure slightly below what Im assuming P3 to be. I usually use two times the spread. If the spread is 0.9, I will place my stop 2 pips below the P3 low of 4333, or 4331. 6. Now, how do we figure out how much well lose? Its going to be the difference between the entry point and our stop order, times the number of units were using. Lets say we are working with $500. The most we are willing to lose is 2%, which would be $10. The number of pips we will lose is 9 (7 plus the 2 pip spread). We take $10 and divide it by 9. That gives us the unit value of each pip. We get $1.11. This is equal to 11,111 units, which I would round off to 11,000 units since Im a conservative trader. We can check this by multiplying $1.10 by 9. We get $9.99. 7. How much will we make if the trade is successful? Our original position will make $20.90 (19 times $1.10). Our add-on another $4.95 if we used just half the number of units (9 times $0.55). With just one trade weve made 5.2% ($25.85 divided by $500)!
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Keep in mind prices actually rose to 4371, 12 pips higher than expected. Of course this doesnt always work out this way. Still, it gives us a good shot at a trade when it does. Also keep in mind this strategy works equally well if prices are declining. We simply do everything weve been doing only in the opposite direction. Now heres the videos for this chapter. Start with the first one which will show you the forex calculator I created to speed up the calculations I just showed you. http://www.forex-trading-made-ez.com/fxdaythree07.html Below is a form Ive also created that helps me keep track of all the numbers weve been talking about. A blank form which you can reproduce may also be found in the appendix on the back page. Using this form I know where to get in (EP = entry point), where to get out (TGT), where I want to abandon the position (STOP), and how many pips Ill make (GAIN) if Im successful. Ill also know how many pips my entry point is from the high or low (PTE = pips to entry), as well how many units I want to use. The PTE is helpful when youre trying to trail your order up or down from a high or low.
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What Im doing here is looking back at previous swings and estimating the up and down movement of the earlier price swings. Today Im starting with 20/20. It doesnt have to be exact. If prices are swinging higher and higher I might use 25/20. I usually start out with 20, 25, or 30, if I cant really estimate earlier swings. Within a few entries it will average out.
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Next, Im going to enter the high and low that I want to start with. Im going to use the chart and figures we used earlier on pages 35-36.
The difference between the high and low is 14. Im going to start by creating a new average (AVG) using the previous average of 20. To average these swings I rely on a calculator I created (AVG.exe) that helps me do the math. Youll be able to download it later, but here is the basic formula in longhand. First of all, to get a simple average of past swings, we could just add up the last three up or down swings and divide by three. A better way is to "smooth" the figure by multiplying the previous up or down average by two, adding today's swing, and then dividing it by three.
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For example, if we take the UP avg. of 20 and multiply it by 2, we get 40. Add that to the upswing of 14, we get 55. Divide 55 by three we get 18, rounded off. That figure becomes our new average (estimate) of how far our next upswing might go. (In our example youll notice the entry at 14:30 just happened to be the same as 12:55.) Before I explain more, this is a good time to watch this video: http://www.forex-trading-made-ez.com/fxdayfivef/fxdayfivef.htm
There are several ways you can use this log to help you see what prices might be doing. For example, take a look at the target figure of 4349 at 17:05. We get that by adding the previous up average of 18 to the 17:05 low of 4331. You would not want to be buying as prices approached the 4349 level. At the same time, remember back on page 38 where we were trying to determine if P3 was a valid turning point? Well, the target at 18:50 was 4341. Since prices had reached that level (and fallen 8 pips lower to 4333) we could begin getting ready for our trade to the upside. Each one of the targets we calculated on this log were reached or exceeded.
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If you want to use AVG.exe to speed up your calculations simply download it as shown in Chapter 11. When used, it doesnt matter if the swings are going up or down. Just follow the instructions. If it asks for the high number put in the last high. The same for the low. Then simply place the figures in the log. Ive also reproduced a blank copy of my log in the appendix. Here are the training videos for this strategy: http://www.forex-trading-made-ez.com/trend.html
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So, lets learn all about Oscar. Its an oscillator that swings up and down as prices move up and down. Were looking for it to change direction right about the time prices change direction. If so, we can be fairly confident what direction to trade. Especially if we are trying to determine P3 in our P1- P2 - P3 strategy. Lets start with the log. As an airline pilot you wouldnt believe how many logs I had to fill out. At the end of a flight all I wanted to do was go home. No, I had to fill out a flight log, a fuel log, a maintenance log . . even my own personal log book. So, you can see why I tend to keep track of prices. In the case of Forex trading it forces us to face facts. If prices are moving against us, we must we must take action.. If prices are making money for us, we capitalize on it by adding to our position if Oscar is telling us its okay to do so. Well see that by the fact the Oscar numbers may still be rising or falling. To get started, we look back at the last eight entries (periods) of our log. We want to select the highest and lowest price for the last eight periods to place in our program. It doesnt matter if its a five, fifteen, or a three hour period. We go back eight lines. Turn to the previous page. Go down to 04:45. Count back eight periods. The high for the past eight periods (including the prices at 04:45) was 3698. The low for the past eight periods is 3553 (just happened to be at 4:45). The last price (close) at 4:45 is 3562. We then enter these numbers into our Oscar.exe calculator, (which youll be able to download shortly), and come up with a figure which we place in the OSC column. This number can be anything between zero and 100 but rarely goes higher than 90 or lower that 10. It doesnt matter. What we are really looking for are numbers that change direction. If youd like to stop here and learn the formula for Oscar please visit: http://www.forex-trading-made-ez.com/osc.html
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Lets say the numbers reach 60, then fall back to 50 and continue falling. Chances are prices are changing direction. If they simply fall to perhaps 58 or 57 it might be just a blip or false move that is not significant. We need to watch what it does next. In other words, its not mechanical. We want to watch whatever other trading tools we might be using, such as moving averages, higher highs, lower lows, and also the trading line at the bottom of our chart. There are also a few tricks we need to know about the calculator. For example, lets say we are doing several periods at a time (in case we get behind). If we press 0 (zero) when prompted for previous oscar the program will enter the last OSC that was obtained, automatically. To exit simply press Control C and Enter. When I get up in the morning, maybe around six oclock, the first thing I do is look at the 15 minute chart. I analyze the swings that have occurred from midnight on. I then place my cursor over each candlestick and record the high, low, close on my log. This takes me about 30 minutes to do and is really just busy work. But believe me, when Im through Im wide awake! Of course I have to start with a previous Oscar figure. Thats really not a big deal, since within 6-8 periods Oscar will work itself out. I simply use 50 as a starting point at the first period and then go line by line selecting the high and low of past lines. A more accurate way is to simply place 50 on the seventh line down and start from there. That way you can easily see the highest high and lowest low for the past eight entries. As I said, what Im really looking for are numbers that change direction. If instead, Oscar doesnt move much, especially during slow or inactive periods such as off hour trading, its not too reliable. Now we need to download Oscar. Simply click or copy this URL to your browser and save the zip file to the root directory of your PC, usually the c:\ drive. http://www.forex-trading-made-ez.com/OSCAR.zip
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You will get a window that looks like this: Click Save, and save it to your C:\ drive. After the download is complete, click on Open and unzip the file. If your PC does not have a zip program you can get it here at no charge: http://www.pkware.com/download-software You will see two files. The file you want to use is Oscar.exe. Simply click on it to start Oscar. If you have a 64 bit PC you may want to Run the program from this site: http://www.forex-trading-made-ez.com/OSCAR.exe By the way, to speed things up, so I dont have to count back, I made a template out of cardboard that I place over my log sheet like this:
Here is a list of video tutorials that demonstrate the power of Oscar. http://www.forex-trading-made-ez.com/fx010209.html http://www.forex-trading-made-ez.com/fx010509.html
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http://www.forex-trading-made-ez.com/fx012809.html http://www.forex-trading-made-ez.com/fx012209.html http://www.forex-trading-made-ez.com/fx012009.html http://www.forex-trading-made-ez.com/fx011209.html You might also be interested to see a sample of a site we update daily at our Membership Club using Oscar: http://www.forex-trading-made-ez.com/1006.html To learn more about our Membership Site and forum please visit us here: http://www.forex-trading-made-ez.com/fxmembershipclub.html
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Forex trading is really very simple to learn. On the other hand, discipline is far more difficult. I dont think you can be taught discipline. You just have to learn it in whatever way your personality dictates. And one of the best ways to learn discipline is to lose a chunk of money. I dont want that to happen to you, but when it does, profit from it. What did I do that I could have avoided? What was I thinking of when I put on that trade? Did I jump in too soon? Was I too aggressive? Did I overtrade? Was I trying to get back money I just lost? Things like that. Im going to help you as best I can to control the emotional part of trading. But I can only do so much. Youll have to carry the ball the rest of the way. Remember, our goal is to simply make five percent a day. Weve seen what we can achieve if we can do that. Dont lose sight of your goal. I have this recurrent dream. I learned it from Richard Dennis, a legendary and perhaps the greatest commodity futures trader in the world. Starting with just $400 he traded it up to several hundred million. Dennis believed he could take a group of newbies Turtles, he called them and train them to do what he did. The rest was history. They went on to do just that! Its my dream of turning hundreds of Turtles all over the world into millionaires. I hope youll keep that in mind as you continue to read. Earlier I mentioned that currency trading is simple. Thats true. But you can make it as complex as you want it to be. What Im saying is, do you want to learn everything there is to know about the Forex markets, or do you just want to make some money? If the latter is the case then youre in for a surprise. Ive said before I honestly dont know that much about the markets myself, so that makes my job simple. I just have to teach you how to make money! However, if you insist, I can tell you the best book on the market to learn all about this business is Day Trading The Currency Market, by Kathy Lien.
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You can get it at www.amazon.com for under fifty bucks. Now, let me start by explaining how all this works. We are basically buying and selling a line on a chart, just like we would buy and sell a house. Its no different. Were hoping our line will give us a profit, the same way were hoping our house will increase in value. The only difference is the time frame. A few minutes with Forex a few years with a home. We begin with a small position until weve made some money. If the trade starts to fail we dump it with a small loss something more difficult to do if were buying and selling real estate. If our trade is successful we stick with it. We may even add to it. But basically we just want to make a series of small profits until we reach five percent for the day. Weve seen earlier how we can make a profit just by buying or selling the latitude lines. Its somewhat easy to do if we have everything set up properly and wait for the market to come to us. But that means watching our screen almost minute-by-minute for the right moment to arrive. Thats why Ive also tried to show you some longer term approaches.
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After the download is complete, click on Open and unzip the file. You will see two files. The file you will use is Forex.exe. You can move it to your desktop if you like.
To open the program double click Forex.exe. To exit, simply press CTRL + C. Do the same with this file labeled AVG.zip http://www.forex-trading-made-ez.com/AVG.zip
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You will use this program to help you with the calculations used in Chapter 8. Once again, you can move this file to your desktop as a shortcut If you would rather not go to the trouble of downloading the Forex.exe, you can also use my online calculator here: http://www.forex-trading-made-ez.com/forexcalculator.htm The online calculator allows you to adjust for whatever spread is being used. The Forex.exe program is fixed at 1.2 pip spread. This is not that important since you can adjust for it yourself when you make the trade. Here is the list of all videos made in 2008: http://www.forex-trading-made-ez.com/vid2008.pdf
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This is an actual duplicate of a 15 minute candlestick chart, in P&F form. Youll notice we draw Xs as prices go up, and Os when they decline. They reverse when prices rise or fall three boxes. There cannot be just two boxes of X or Os.
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The charts have no time frame -- a swing can be five minutes or an hour or more although I often place a number at the bottom to show the time. When drawing a P&F chart of a five minute candlestick chart I generally use a two pip box. Heres an example of a five minute choppy day chart:
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Note how erratic prices are. Its hard to predict their direction. But one thing is pretty certain. Once prices change direction they tend to keep on going. What this means is once prices reverse direction we have a reasonable chance of making at least five or more pips on the move. On the other hand go back to the previous chart on page 57. We see prices are trending higher and higher. Then notice how they are unable to better the 5765 level. In fact prices fell to the 5745 level, tried one more time to break 5765 and then began to slide where they broke down through the previous low. Another feature of P&F charts is their tendency to stay within, or breakthrough, a line drawn at a 45 degree angle to a previous move. Like this:
Im hoping youll see the value of these charts as I do. If nothing else, try using them on an hourly, three hour or even a daily chart. They can give you the big picture.
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try using different price scales for different charts until you find the ones that seem to fit. If youd like to learn more about P&F visit this site. Excellent background material. http://www.investorsintelligence.com/x/default.html By the way, if you dont have any graph paper handy, Ive included a blank copy you can reproduce at the end of this manual. Now, here are the videos for this chapter. Training Videos: Using Point and Figure http://www.forex-trading-made-ez.com/p-f.html
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First, when my trade is executed prices may swing immediately against me by the amount I expect to earn. If I placed my stop too close, especially in an active market, I might get stopped out needlessly. However, you must have a stop loss in place when the trade is executed -- for one important reason. What if your computer restarts, crashes, or you lose the internet connection? Without a protective stop youre going to be hurt badly if prices suddenly move in the wrong direction before you can get back online. However, once the trade is in place, and moving in my direction, I start changing the stop to within 5-10 pips from the current price and continue moving it until my exit point is reached or Im stopped out. The actual distance will vary depending on the volatility. Thats how you stay out of trouble. Thats how you avoid a bad day! Now, let me clarify the strategy I am teaching you. It's basically very simple. Make FIVE percent on your money and quit for the day. Do that successfully for fifteen days and you've doubled your money! What does it take? Just 20-25 pips a day. Four, 5-6 pip trades. Or, three trades: A 10 pip trade and two 5-6 pip trades. Or, two, 10 - 12 pip trades, etc. Maybe just one long-roll trade that yields 25-30 pips. Personally, I like the four, 5-6 pip plan best. It's so easy to make 5 pips. Just get in front of a trend with a buy or sell stop, and get out five pips later. Or, the one I often make, a ten pip latitude line trade with an add-on half way up or down. The only problem is it may take a little more time waiting for the right moment. (Umm, that sounds like the TV commercial!) But, for me, I'm at my PC answering emails anyway. Plus, I'm retired. When you're retired you can work for yourself, when you please, however you please!
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Don't get hung up on the details. I can make 5-10 pips using just Point and Figure. If I do that 3-4 times Im home free. But I dont have to make 5% every day. Im happy with whatever I can get. You should be too as long as you are making progress. That brings up another good point. Ive said you should quit whenever you lose 10% of your money. Actually, I quit long before that. If you cant seem to make any progress for the day, go ahead and quit. It usually just gets worse if you dont. A trick that I use works like this. Lets say Im working with $1,000. Yesterday I made my five percent, or $50. Im now starting my trading day with $1,050. I begin trading and get stopped out. I start to lose several times in a row. No matter what the markets are telling me, nor what my emotions are telling me to do, I will not let my losses fall back lower than what I started with yesterday: $1,000. Its as if yesterday never happened, and tomorrow is a whole new ball game. Youre starting all over again with $1,000. Does that make sense to you? Try it if you have trouble controlling your losses. Here is the list of all videos made in 2009: http://www.forex-trading-made-ez.com/vid2009.pdf
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Second, I generally use a 5 minute chart to trade with. I will check longer term charts, 15, 30, and sometimes the 60 minute chart to see the overall direction, but I will usually use just the 5 min. P1, P2, P3 numbers to enter into the Forex calculator. Still, if prices are really volatile I'll use a 15 min. chart. Third, I want to see the EMA's in my favor (rising or declining, red or green on top, etc.) and generally not going sideways as that would indicate a more choppy situation. Fourth, if I can draw channels, like youll see in some of my videos, that will often show P3 touching the sides of the channel. Fifth, it helps if the trading line is reaching a top or bottom, but this doesn't always happen. Instead, it may simply change direction, often right in the middle of the move. Sixth, (and this takes awhile to get used to), I use the timeless strategy I showed you earlier called point and figure (P&F) to help me see how far prices have moved. Seventh, as Charles Lindsay points out in his book "Trident, A trading Strategy" a valid turning point must have a lower low on each side of a peak, and a higher high on each side of a bottom. I think that goes without saying. Eighth, and the one I've found to be very effective in calling the turns, is Oscar using the 15 minute chart. Ninth, for some unknown reason, it seems every time I think I have P3 nailed, if I just wait for a bit, a new P3 will form that WILL be the valid turning point. I tend to think that's how the markets (label that "brokers") take advantage of us. They know we are often short on patience, and can't wait to get into a trade. Tenth, If I have a pretty good log going of price swings (as shown in Chapter 8) it will often help me confirm that a P3 has been made. Finally, and I think this is important. When we are successful we'll only make 75% of the total move. (Remember, we're not in the first 25% of the move.) So, let's say we get stopped out, start over and ARE successful. Now we make 50% of the move.
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That's usually more than enough to offset our loss and make our five percent. Along the same line of reasoning, if we happen to miss the entry point (EP) we can often get in at a higher or lower figure and still make 5%, especially if we use an add-on. All of these things help me judge a turnaround, but of course are never a sure thing. Thats why I use very tight stops. How do I handle add-ons? These are additional trades, usually on a long roll move but often on a latitude line trade also that I add on when Ive already got a good profit going for me. If I do add to my trade, Im very careful not to let it turn my original position into a loss. At worst I will usually break even on my original trade and lose on my add-on. I usually add-on just half of what I originally bought or sold, so I dont get hurt too badly. Im also constantly aware of how much Im going to make. As soon as I see prices are getting close to earning five percent, I quickly revise my target accordingly. I cant emphasize this enough. Make your five percent and go home! Another thing we saw when opening our account was the need to select what margin or leverage you wish to use. What this means is basically how large a position you can carry for the amount of money you have in your account. Ive never used more than 50:1 leverage, compared to some firms that allow up to 200:1 and more. A higher amount can often result in a margin call, in which case your entire position is closed out. I dont ever recall having a margin call simply because of my use of very tight stops. Let me tell you about a trick I use to calculate my five percent profit. Lets say Im working with $1,000. I multiply that by 5% and get $50. Seems simple enough. But, what I actually do is multiply $1,000 by 1.05. Now I know the minimum amount I want to reach, $1,050. I then multiply $1,000 again, only this time by 1.059. I get $1,059. Now I know the parameters Im shooting for.
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In this case somewhere between $50 and $59 dollars. Thats my target zone. Thats why youll often see me making 5.4, 5.7, or perhaps 5.9 percent. Sometimes I get into a monster of a trade. I know its going to continue making money for me so instead of getting out at 5% I just keeping moving my stop in tune with prices. Often Ill end up with 10, 20, even 30% for the day. I get so excited, do you know what I do? I pretend Ive made five, 5% days, and take the next five days or so off! Its the only way I can get a vacation! Im often asked whats the best time to trade? Lately, it seems anytime you have the time. Im not trying to be humorous. Its true! I often make a trade or two at midnight then one in the morning or even the afternoon. As long as there is activity, and the spread is no more than 3, Ive been able to trade anytime of the day or night. However, a very slow time is the period between 4 p.m. and 11 p.m. Eastern. I would avoid those times as Ive said earlier. My time zone here in Seattle is GMT-8. Lets finish up this chapter by watching some videos. Training Videos: Tips and Tricks http://www.forex-trading-made-ez.com/fx110308f/fx110308f.htm http://www.forex-trading-made-ez.com/fx090408/fx090408.htm http://www.forex-trading-made-ez.com/fx081808/fx081808.htm http://www.forex-trading-made-ez.com/fx090808f/fx090808f.htm
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Its because they want to limit their exposure to risk! To control our risk we must do the same. No matter how much cash you have burning a hole in your pocket you cant violate the rules I gave you back at the beginning of this manual: Let me refresh your memory: 1. We never risk more than 2% on any one trade. 2. We quit for the day if weve made five percent on our money. 3. We quit for the day if weve lost ten percent. 4. We also quit at 3:00 PM Eastern no matter where we are simply because the markets slow down around that time when the New York trade goes home. Lastly, you must want to be a winner! Bruce Lee was told by doctors he might never walk again. Nearly broke and crippled, he visualized writing down all these negative thoughts on a piece of paper. Then, hed see himself crumpling it up and throwing it in the trash. Six months later he was a martial arts legend. Bruce Lee was the hardest working person Ive ever known. He never stopped learning. He never stopped innovating, and he never gave up his quest for doing the best he could. Bruce once explained, If you always put limits on yourself, both physical or otherwise, you might as well call it quits. I hope youll take those words to heart and let me know what plateau youve achieved in your reach for success in the Foreign Exchange Markets. All the best with your trading,
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In reading his book I learned much about technical analysis, including the use of stop orders not only to exit a trade but enter one as well. I began charting all the popular stocks of the day using the methods described by Edwards and Magee in their investment classic, Technical Analysis of Stock Trends. Later I began charting and trading commodity futures. As time passed, however, the markets became too wild for my style of trading. There was a time when silver plunged down the limit each day for about a month, wiping out even the Hunt brothers who, it was said, were intent on cornering the markets. Like all airline pilots, forced to retire at age sixty by Federal law, (recently changed, but not retroactive), we decided to move to the Pacific Northwest, not only for a change of scenery, but to avoid the early morning trading hours dictated by the time zones. Hawaii is six hours behind New York during daylight saving time and getting up at 3 AM each morning is no picnic. Now happily settled with my wife Jo Ann, a former PanAm flight attendant, two cats, and a black Lab we have the best of all worlds. Its a little rainy at times and the commutes are as bad as anywhere. But who cares when youre retired. The change of seasons (something we missed in Hawaii) and the joy of holidays are ever present. Best wishes to you and yours, from Seattle.
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