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we minimize the sum of the squared differences between the actual sales and the sales indicated by the model. The difference is the error of the forecast.
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Example
Example
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Example
Example
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Example
If there are 23 housing starts in January of 1996, we would expect to sell about
Coefficient of determination
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Comments on Regression
Regression models are very useful for forecasting when there is a strong relationship and a time lag between the dependent variable and the iindependent variable. If there is no time lag between dependent and independent variables, i.e., they occur in the same time period, we cannot forecast future values of the dependent value unless we use a forecast of the independent variable, which may introduce additional error in the forecast of the dependent variable. If causal relationships do not exist, regression is not the best forecasting method.
Trend process
Double Exponential Smoothing Double Moving Average (Regression)
Seasonal process
Winters Method
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Example
Example
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a=
1 T b d t 2 (T + 1) T t =1
Ft + k = a + bk
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