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Thursday, December 29, 2011


Morning forecast

QT Weather
weather at a glance
Argentine crops stressed Y-O-Y Comps O.K, 10-Year Bad Rain S, 7 days later into E and C?

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QT Weather brings you a comprehensive stream of market-relevant domestic and international weather information every day from expert meteorologist Allen Motew. Using radar analysis, USDA data, global satellite and remote sensing coverage, QT offers an extensive package of essential weather information.

The Damage Has Been Done

Last weeks rains were not enough but the heat was. Over the past two weeks crops have deteriorated significantly across Argentina, to the point where very few areas match or exceed the 10-year crop health mean. Serious deterioration is noted in numerous areas (see maps).

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Argentine crops from space2011 versus 2010

You be the judge...better or worse overall than last year (2010)? Better year-over-year crops do show in a wide swath from N Cordoba to N Uruguay (above), but many areas are showing significant year-over-year deterioration. When compared to the 10-year norm, significant problems exist (see following map).

Todays weather maps

About Allen Motew

Allen Motew has been an expert weather analyst for more than 35 years. With a Seal of Approval for Broadcasters from the American Meteorological Society, Allen specializes in global weather prediction, synoptic scale and mesonet analysis, and severe weather events. He is trained in forecasting hurricanes, tropical cyclones and international weather events for government and private industry interests from around the globe. A Chicago native, Allen broadcasts his local, domestic and international commodity weather forecasts from the Chicago Board of Trade.


Crops compared to the 10-year meanArgentine crops and pasture are far behind (as of Dec 3-18). Comparison to the 10-year mean shows the greatest deterioration in high producing areas as N Buenos Aires, most of Cordoba, NW Santa Fe/SE Santiago del Estero/SW Chaco and portions of C Santa Fe, Entre Rios, Uruguay and Rio Grande do Sul. Other areas of lesser deterioration are shown throughout Argentina as well as a few fortunate areas where crop health exceeds the mean. Note: since this graphic was released, further drying and deterioration has occurred.

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An E-W surface ridge, crossing from the S Atlantic westward into central Argentina will inhibit rain and moisture from reaching central and north Argentina for the next 5 days.

Todays weather maps

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Five day rain totalsrains reach southern, southwest (into S Cordoba?), and far west areas today and lasting over the weekend.

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Rain encroaches on central areas 8 days from now per the overnight GFS.

The 7 day temperature outlook shows above normal heat will continue on average over central and southern Argentina while normal to below is expected in coastal and eastern areas.

QT In formation Systems
Chicago Board of Trade 141 W. Jackson Blvd., Suite 1255 800.240.8761 ph 312-896-2050 fax www.qtweather.com www.qtinfo.com

Days 9-16 are promising, leaving scattered pockets of 2+ inch totals, but it appears, especially on corn that the damage is irreversible and yields are going to suffer. ALLEN MOTEW