DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

17 November, 2011
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

MA RK ET
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF
Ron William, CMT, MSTA

S-TERM
MULTI-DAY

L-TERM
MULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/ POSITION SHORT 3

ENTRY LEVEL 1.3480

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS

STOP

1.3140/1.3000/1.2860 (Entered 16/11/2011) Await fresh signal. Await New Buy Trade Setup. Await fresh signal.

1.3650

USD/CAD AUD/USD GBP/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/GBP

LONG 3 SHORT 2

1.0250 1.0570

1.0360/1.0480/1.0670 (Entered on 10/11/2011) 1.0010/0.9710 (Entered 01/11/2011) Await fresh signal. Look to see how 104.00 fares.

1.0050 1.0360

SHORT 3 Sell stop 3

0.8555 1.2130

0.8455/0.8285/0.8068 (Entered 11/11/2011) 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.

0.8655 1.2230

Bijoy Kar, CFA

EUR/CHF GOLD SILVER

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

SHORT 3

34.1300

29.9700/26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011)

35.6880

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES

Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports. CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland info@migbank.com www.migbank.com

MIG BANK / Forex Broker14, rte des Gouttes dOr Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01

EUR/USD EUR/USD
EUR/USD (Daily)
BERMUDA TRIANGLE

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

17 November, 2011

FAILED
BREAKOUTS

Resuming sharp reversal into 1.3140.

EUR/USD is resuming its sharp reversal from key overhead resistance (primarily an important 2 year trend-line and its 200-day average). The bearish move is now being further anchored down by heightened European sovereign debt risk leads to greater contagion. Expect downside scope into 1.3146 (Oct swing low) and psychological level at 1.3000, then 1.2870 (2011 major low).

BREAKOUT ZONE (1.4000)

200-DMA (1.4102)

SHARP REVERSAL AT KEY RESISTANCE TARGETS 1.3000 & 1.2870

Further pressure may also weigh from broad risk-related proxies. The euro continues to share a high correlation with the S&P500 and AUD/USD. Inversely, the USD Index is holding above its long-term 200-day MA. The bulls are likely to recapture the recent 9-month highs near 80.

UPTREND (2 YEARS)

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD INDEX
200-DMA (75.72)
9 MONTH HIGH
EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9% CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%

Speculative (net long) liquidity flows have unwound from recent spike highs (3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely remain strong and help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic oversold extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).
Special Report: EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410.
+27% +19%
+10%
SO FAR

USD INDEX (4 YEARS)

VIDEO

MIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months. US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg

BREAKOUT ZONE
DEMARK BUY SIGNAL

3 STD ABOVE ONE YEAR AVERAGE

DEMARK BUY SIGNALS

13

KEY SUPPORT (73.50-73.00)

TRIGGER (15000)
COT LIQUIDITY
EXTREME NET US $ SHORT POSITIONS

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 1.3480, Objs:1.3140/1.3000/1.2860, Stop: 1.3650

USD Index daily, weekly chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 2

GBP/USD

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

17 November, 2011

Break back over 1.6127 fails to materialise.

GBP/USD saw a clear break under the 1.5871-77 floor that had been containing weakness off the recent 1.6167 high. Mondays failure to realise a return to 1.6200, to complete the rising phase off 1.5272, is another warning sign of a messy sideways market, with impulsive moves failing to materialise where expected. We now look to see if the 1.5632 region can contain the current push lower. Failure to hold above this level will warn that strength from 1.5272 is complete. The falling wedge that appears to be forming in the hourly timeframe is suggestive of an exhaustion of the recent down phase. GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP Sterling is expected to stay stronger then most, should the US Dollar enter into a strengthening phase.

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 3

USD/JPY
USD/JPY (Daily 1 YEAR)

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

17 November, 2011

POST INTERVENTION RETRACEMENT (PIR I)

Probability now favours retracement to pre-intervention levels.

USD/JPY is continuing to edge lower, with the growing probability of another price retracement back to pre-intervention levels (PIR) and potentially even

QUAKE SHOCK! 83.30

POST G7 MOVE (I) HIGH

a new post world war record low beneath 75.35 (PINL). Furthermore, sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying pressure remains overcrowded as everyone in the market continues to try and be the first to call the market bottom.
82.00

This may inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move

POST BOJ MOVE (II) HIGH

would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders, which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal.
80.24

The medium/long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a

USD/JPY Weekly (2007 2011)

ENDING DIAGONAL PATTERN BREAKOUT TARGET (85-79)

PIR II

POST BOJ MOVE (III) HIGH

major long-term 40 year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection points to trigger into November-December this year, offering a sustained move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30. Keep in mind that such a scenario would help reactivate the longer-term technical bias, including prior monthly DeMark exhaustion signals, within the ending diagonal pattern, launching a powerful recovery into 91.00.
Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY. Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal Webinar: USD/JPYs Long-Term Structural Change CNBC Report

MONTHLY DEMARK BUY SIGNAL

DEMARK BUY SIGNAL AHEAD OF NEW POST WWII LOW (75.35)

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup.

USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 426 4

USD/CHF

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

17 November, 2011

Below 0.9316 suggests a corrective phase is more likely.

Strategy to buy at 0.9110 removed. USD/CHF remains bound within the confines of the hourly channel which we highlighted yesterday. It has been decided to remove the strategy to buy at 0.9110, as a fall back down to this level, after pushing over 0.9200, would lead to a break down in positive structure, giving the long trade a weaker probability of success. In fact while below 0.9316 a return to the region close to 0.8242 remains possible. However, if a break above 0.9316 can be achieved without

breaking under 0.8568, a structural change will occur, increasing the probability of further gains ahead. USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP Focus still remains on Italian and Spanish sovereign yields. Also of interest is that French government bonds are widening across the whole curve versus their German counterparts, when compared to the spread just one month ago. This is a further warning sign, as shown in the chart to the left.

French vs German bond yields, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 5

USD/CAD
USD/CAD (Daily)
August High (1.0673)

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

17 November, 2011
USD/CAD (Weekly)

Bulls hold gains above psychological 1.0000 level.

USD/CADs short-term price activity remains positive, following the sharp bullish reversal from the psychological 1.0000 level (prior trading range). Positive momentum needs to confirm a daily close above 1.0264, then

200-DMA (0.9827)

CONFIRMATION ABOVE 1.0680 OPENS LARGER RECOVERY

1.0400 to rebuild the potential major upside reversal higher above the old resistance level at 1.0673 (August high & Congestion zone). A strong directional confirmation above here will open a much larger recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the rates ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle.

DEMARK BUY SIGNAL

Only a sustained close beneath parity will unlock bearish setbacks into the long-term 200-day MA at 0.9827 and 0.9726 (31 Aug low).
st

USD/CAD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

MAJOR RESISTANCE

CHF/CAD (Daily)
REVERSAL PATTERN

EUR/CAD is extending above its 200-day MA, within a large multi-month trading range. Key resistance continues to hold at 1.4379 (June swing high), which has for some time marked a strong distribution pattern. CHF/CAD has broken through support nearby the 200-day MA at 1.1326, following the dramatic price slide lower (triggered by the SNB intervention). The cross-rate has now retraced more than half of its 2011 gains.

50%

(1.3570)
61.8% 50%

(1.3379)

(1.1488)

61.8%

(1.0893)
200-DMA (1.1875)

EUR/CAD (Daily)

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Long 3: 1.0250, Objs:1.0360/1.0480/1.0670, Stop: 1.0050

EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 6

AUD/USD
AUD/USD
(1 YEAR)
DEMARK SELL SIGNALS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

17 November, 2011
AUD/USD
(Weekly)

Sharp setbacks weigh.

Lowered stop to 1.0360. AUD/USDs sharp setbacks continue to weigh. The move was triggered from key resistance at 1.0765 (01st Sept high) and is
STRUCTURAL LEVEL

now holding beneath the 200-day MA (1.0418). A sustained move below here is likely to mount downside pressure on the
3 YEAR UPTREND IS UNDER PRESSURE

38.2%

(0.9144)
50%

rates multi-year uptrend and puh back under parity, toward 0.9611. Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains stable against the New Zealand dollar. The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2320 and 1.2100. The Aussie dollar has reversed gains against the Japanese yen and is now trading back below the long-term 200-day MA which is currently at 82.95. Near-term support continues to hold at 77.63 (18 Oct low). A break here
th

(0.8546)
200-DMA (1.0413)
61.8%

(0.7947) KEY ZONE

AUD/USD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/NZD (Daily) AUD/JPY (Daily)
DEMARK SELL SIGNAL

will resume downside scope into 76.70 and signal further unwinding of risk
13

appetite.

200-DMA CAPS BEAR MKT 38.2%

(76.70)
50%

200DMA (82.95)

(72.58)
61.8%

(68.47)

RESUMPTION OF BREAKDOWN ADDS TO RISK AVERSION

KEY SUPPORT 1.2319 / 1.2100

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
SHORT 2: 1.0570, Obj: 1.0010/0.9710, Stop: 1.0360

AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 7

GBP/JPY

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

17 November, 2011

Hourly falling wedge warns of downside exhaustion.

Long stopped. Await fresh signal. GBP/JPY has broken clearly under the 122.38/65 platform over the last two sessions. This now warns of a breakdown in positive structure. However, the hourly timeframe is currently exhibiting a falling wedge formation which is suggestive of a degree of downside exhaustion. We will thus await a bounce higher ahead of the possible formulation of a short strategy. Strictly speaking a break under 120.85 needs to be witnessed, to completely break down the positive structure seen since 116.84. If a push below this key level can be realised then a return back down to 116.84 would become favoured. GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Long stopped. Await fresh signal.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 8

EUR/JPY

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

17 November, 2011

Initial signs of support seen close to 104.00.

EUR/JPY is currently testing the region close to 104.00. A degree of

support was anticipated here. Failure to hold above 103.41 will lead to a complete breakdown in positive structure, with a return to 100.76 then favoured. Back over 106.74 is required to neutralise the outlook in the short-term. A sustained hold over the 200 day moving average will turn the mediumterm outlook more bullish. We will now monitor the price action close to 104.00 to try and determine if a short-term buying opportunity will present itself.

EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Look to see how the 104.00 region fares.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 9

EUR/GBP

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

17 November, 2011

Return to 0.8486 and then lower now favoured.

EUR/GBP has failed to hold back over old trend line support in recent sessions. This now warns of a return to 0.8486 and then potentially lower. Weakness is still being contained by an hourly falling channel, with the support of this structure currently near 0.8450. A sustained break under 0.8486 will open up a return to the January 2011 low at 0.8285. If a large move to the downside were to materialise in this environment, it is likely to be associated with Sterling being perceived as a safe haven. In this respect we need to monitor the yields on Italian, French and Spanish government bonds, noting that the ten year yield in both Italian and Spanish sovereigns are trading above 6.00%. EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP In the near-term, a break back over 0.8652 is required to neutralise the outlook once again Failure to hold under the old double bottom and trend-line will warn of a false break lower, with a danger that trade returns back into the old range.

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Short 3 at 0.8555, Objs: 0.8455/0.8285/0.8068, Stop: 0.8655

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 10

EUR/CHF

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

17 November, 2011

Approaches the 1.2500 region once again.

EUR/CHF is maintaining its tight trading range just under the 1.2500 level. It is anticipated that this zone may see a degree of resistance, particularly in light of the movement in periphery yield spreads versus bunds. Over time, this may lead to a renewed desire for a safe haven, with downside pressure returning to EUR/CHF. We would prefer to trade this from a momentum perspective, awaiting a return to the 1.2000 region. Should a re-test of the 1.2000 region take place with a fall under 1.1973 also following, this would warn of the end of the recovery seen since 1.0075, increasing the probability of a return to this level. EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP It remains to be seen if the SNB will be able to hold back the possible flow of funds into Swiss Francs, that may occur, if further stresses lead to yet higher yields in Italian government bonds.

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Sell stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2230.

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 11

GOLD
GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS
DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 UPSIDE: $1760 / $1844

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

17 November, 2011

RISK ZONE III

DOUBLE TOP

Positive for the short-term.

Short-term price activity is weakening into resistance at 1600. This may start to weigh on constructive recovery that we have seen over the last few weeks, following Golds dramtic 20% capitulation. Speculative (net long) flows remain a concern having recently breached a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold

DEMARK SIGNAL WARNED OF GOLDS OVERBOUGHT CONDITIONS

20% SO FAR

$1760 $1704

$1600

34%
$1532
BREAKOUT 200-DMA NOT BROKEN IN 3 YEARS!

positions. There is heightened risk of a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly close beneath $1600 and $1554-30 (200-day MA/swing low), which has not been breached in 3 years!

26%
CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530 UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINE INTO $1300 & $1040-1000 TREND CHANNEL
(12 YEARS)

A number of bargain hunting trend-followers will be watching this benchmark line in the sand for repeat support or a potential big squeeze lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000. Remember, this would still offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.
Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:

COT NET LONG SPECULATOR POSITIONS

Special Report Golds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600 Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box
(BLOOMBERG & CNBC REPORTS)

VIDEO

MIG Bank Gold Webinar video

I
25%
OVER 2 YEARS OF SIZEABLE LONG GOLD POSITIONS UNDER THREAT IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS

II

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.

Gold weekly, daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 12

SILVER
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! Silver (Daily)
DEMARK SELL SIGNALS DEMARK SELL SIGNAL

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

17 November, 2011

13

Key support at $26.0700.

Silver has developed a short-term recovery from its previous swing low at 26.0700. However, macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following the major sell-off in September. Such a dramatic move traditionally produces volatile trading ranges. This

200 DMA (36.5125)

II

allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.

KEY SUPPORT (26.0700)

Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the

38.2%

(32.3135)

multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8% Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silvers long-

Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio

50%

term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual resumption higher. Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio which has now accelerated

(26.9150)

61.8%

(21.5165) 13 YEAR LEVEL

UNWINDING 67% FROM OVERSOLD TERRITORY

higher by 67%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.

OVER

30 YEAR BASE PATTERN

BULL MARKET FROM 1999

Silver Monthly (since 1980)

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 34.1300, Obj: 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 35.6880

Spot Silver daily, weekly chart and Gold/Silver mint ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 13

LEGAL TERMS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

17 November, 2011

DISCLAIMER
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever. The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before making any investment decision. All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

Limitation of liability
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Material Interests
MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright
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Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

www.migbank.com

14

CONTACT

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

17 November, 2011

Howard Friend www.migbank.com Chief Market Strategist h.friend@migbank.com

Ron William Technical Strategist r.william@migbank.com

Bjioy Kar Technical Strategist b.kar@migbank.com

MIG BANK info@migbank.com www.migbank.com

14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Tel.+41 32 722 81 00 15