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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December, 2011 Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December, 2011 Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December, 2011 Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

13 December, 2011

Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer. Ron William, CMT, MSTA Bijoy Kar, CFA
of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer. Ron William, CMT, MSTA Bijoy Kar, CFA
of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer. Ron William, CMT, MSTA Bijoy Kar, CFA
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
Bijoy Kar, CFA
Bijoy Kar, CFA

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

DISCLAIMER &

DISCLOSURES

Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report

MA

S-TERM

L-TERM

STRATEGY/

ENTRY

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS

STOP

MULTI-DAY

MULTI-WEEK

POSITION

LEVEL

 

EUR/USD

SHORT 3

1.3280

1.3140/1.2990/1.2870 (Entered 12/12/2012)

1.3460

GBP/USD

Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY

Await New Buy Trade Setup above 80.00.

USD/CHF

 



Buy limit 3

0.9335

0.9460/0.9630/0.9776

0.9250

USD/CAD

Awaiting New Buy Trade setup.

AUD/USD

Sell Stop 3

1.0050

0.9950/0.9660/0.9380

1.0210

GBP/JPY

Sell limit 3

123.00

122.00/121.00/120.00

124.00

EUR/JPY

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Sell at 0.8700 removed. Look to sell higher.

EUR/CHF

Sell limit 3

1.2480

1.2380/1.2226/1.1973

1.2580

GOLD

SHORT 3

1705

1605/1530/1300 (Entered 12/12/2012)

1750

SILVER

SHORT 3

34.1300

29.9700/26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011)

34.1300

 

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

MIG BANK / Forex Broker

14, rte des Gouttes d’Or

CH-2008 Neuchâtel

Switzerland

Tel +41 32 722 81 00

Fax +41 32 722 81 01

info@migbank.com

www.migbank.com

EUR/USD

EUR/USD

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

13 December, 2011

BERMUDA EUR/USD (Daily) FAILED TRIANGLE BREAKOUTS BREAKOUT ZONE (1.4000) 200-DMA 1.3000 (1.4074)
BERMUDA
EUR/USD (Daily)
FAILED
TRIANGLE
BREAKOUTS
BREAKOUT
ZONE
(1.4000)
200-DMA
1.3000
(1.4074)
(PSYCHOLOGICAL)
1.2870
(2011 MAJOR LOW)
UPTREND
(2 YEARS)
EUR/USD weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

Bears push into 1.3146 after rating warning from Moody’s.

EUR/USD bears have continued to push lower, after a recent warning from Moody’s which cited that it would review ratings for all European Union countries. In price terms, bears need to break near-term support at 1.3146 (Oct swing low).

We have opened short position favouring extended downside scope. Our cycle analysis suggests increased volatility over the next two weeks across “risk” proxies, including the equity and commodity markets.

A close beneath 1.3146 will re-establish the larger downtrend from April and target 1.3000 (psychological level), then 1.2870 (2011 major low).

Meanwhile, resistance can be found at 1.3550 (02 Dec high), then 1.3610 and 1.3730. Any rebound into these levels is likely to be short-lived.

USD INDEX USD INDEX EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9% CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF
USD INDEX
USD INDEX
EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%
CAD 9.1%,
SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%
(4 YEARS)
200-DMA
 Inversely, the USD Index is maintaining its recovery higher and still targets
its recent 9-month highs near 80, (a move worth almost 10%).
(75.84)
9 MONTH
HIGH
+19%
+27%
+10%
SO FAR
 Speculative (net long) liquidity flows have unwound from recent spike highs
(3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely remain
strong and help resume the USD’s major bull-run from its historic oversold
extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).
BREAKOUT ZONE
DEMARK™
Special Report: EUR/USD ˝A Fall From Grace˝ ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410.
VIDEO
BUY SIGNAL
MIG Bank Webinar: “Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.”
US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg
TRIGGER
+
(15000)
13 9
KEY SUPPORT
EXTREME NET
DEMARK™
(73.50-73.00)
COT LIQUIDITY
US $ SHORT
BUY SIGNALS
-
POSITIONS
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
USD Index daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
 SHORT 3: 1.3280, Obj: 1.3140/1.2990/1.2870, Stop: 1.3460
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454
www.migbank.com
www.migbank.com

2

GBP/USD

GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Finance LP GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP www.migbank.com DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December, 2011
Finance LP GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP www.migbank.com DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December, 2011
www.migbank.com
www.migbank.com

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

13 December, 2011

Range formed by a sequence of false breaks.

GBP/USD has formed a sequence of false breaks on the hourly chart. We now await to see if the most recent push lower, to 1.5538, will see any follow through. This sequence of lower lows and higher highs has formed a range bound market for the majority of December.

Demand for sterling is likely to be affected by the movement in selected core Euro-Zone sovereign markets. In particular we note that Italian 10 year yields are trading close to 7.00%. Daily structure is also suggestive of a return to test 7.00% and higher. A continuation of higher yields may see Sterling being adopted as a safe haven again. This reasoning would likely help to keep cable within its year long range.

With the above in mind, the region near 1.5400 may offer attractive levels to enter into medium-term long positions. Taking this approach will need to see levels closer to 1.5400 for a well placed stop. The range bound trade of the last few days is best avoided.

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY

Await fresh signal.

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424

3

USD/JPY

USD/JPY POST INTERVENTION RETRACEMENT (PIR I) QUAKE SHOCK! 83.30 POST G7 MOVE (I) HIGH 82.00
USD/JPY
POST INTERVENTION
RETRACEMENT (PIR I)
QUAKE
SHOCK!
83.30
POST
G7
MOVE (I)
HIGH
82.00
POST
BOJ
MOVE (II)
HIGH
80.24
POST
BOJ
USD/JPY Weekly
ENDING
MOVE (III)
(2007 – 2011)
PIR II
HIGH
DIAGONAL
PIR III
PATTERN
ANTICIPATES
BREAKOUT
(85-79)
MONTHLY
DEMARK™
DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL AHEAD
OF NEW POST WWII LOW (75.35)
USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com
www.migbank.com

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

13 December, 2011

Weakening beneath 78.24 (DeMark™ Level).

USD/JPY is still weak beneath 78.24 (DeMark™ Level). There is an ever growing probability of unfolding a third price retracement back to pre- intervention levels (PIR III) and potentially even a new post world war record low beneath 75.35 (PINL).

Sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying pressure remains overcrowded as everyone continues to try and be the first to call the market bottom.

This may inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,

which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal.

The medium/long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a major long-term 40-year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection points to trigger into December this year, offering a sustained move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.

Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY. Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal

Media Reports: CNBC

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY

Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup above 80.00.

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 426
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 426

4

USD/CHF

USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Finance LP USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP www.migbank.com DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December, 2011
Finance LP USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP www.migbank.com DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December, 2011
www.migbank.com
www.migbank.com

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

13 December, 2011

Over 0.9331 opens up a return to 0.9776.

USD/CHF saw a break over 0.9331 yesterday. This warns of a larger swing higher, back towards 0.9776. We now look to see if the region just above 0.9331 has the capacity to act as support for a further extension higher.

This pair is currently ignoring the early warning signs exhibited by the continued rise in some core Euro-Zone government bond markets. If the yield on 10 year Italian government bonds continues to rise towards 7.000% and higher, there is scope for a degree of downside pressure to return to USD/CHF. In the meantime, the above mentioned extension higher is favoured.

Referencing Spanish and Italian government bonds back to their respective levels prior to the six party central bank agreement, we note that most of the positive after effects have worn off, with yields trading at 5.881% and 6.684% versus 6.478% and 7.355%, before the agreement. (These yields were trading at 5.897% and 6.521% respectively at the same time yesterday.)

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY



Buy limit 3 at 0.9335, Objs: 0.9460/0.9630/0.9776, Stop: 0.9250

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424

5

USD/CAD

USD/CAD (Daily) USD/CAD (Weekly) CONFIRMATION ABOVE 1.0680 OPENS 200-DMA LARGER (0.9870) RECOVERY DEMARK™ BUY
USD/CAD (Daily)
USD/CAD (Weekly)
CONFIRMATION
ABOVE 1.0680
OPENS
200-DMA
LARGER
(0.9870)
RECOVERY
DEMARK™
BUY SIGNAL
USD/CAD daily, weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP
MAJOR RESISTANCE
CHF/CAD (Daily)
REVERSAL
PATTERN
200-DMA
(1.3876)
50%
(1.3570)
61.8%
50%
(1.3379)
(1.1488)
61.8%
(1.0893)
EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily charts, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily charts, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily charts, Bloomberg Finance LP www.migbank.com Bulls rebound above 1.0200. DAILY TECHNICAL
EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily charts, Bloomberg Finance LP www.migbank.com Bulls rebound above 1.0200. DAILY TECHNICAL
www.migbank.com
www.migbank.com

Bulls rebound above 1.0200.

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

13 December, 2011

USD/CAD is maintaining its sharp bullish rebound above 1.0200. We are watching for further sustained price activity to open a buy trade setup.

A directional confirmation above 1.0680 is still needed to unlock the recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the rate’s ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott wave cycle.

Only a sustained close beneath 1.0080 and parity unlocks bearish setbacks into the long-term 200-day MA at 0.9870 and 0.9726 (31 st Aug low).

EUR/CAD is unwinding mildly ahead of the base of an important multi- month distribution pattern. A break beneath 1.3393-79 (19 th Sept low/61.8% Fib), signals an important breakdown into 1.3140 and would provide substantial correlation pressure onto EUR/USD.

CHF/CAD, which serves as a proxy for “risk appetite”, remains weak beneath its 200-day MA (which had provided support for most of the uptrend since mid-2010). Key support now holds at 1.0893 (61.8% Fib retrace). A break here would extend the sharp decline into 1.0332 (01 st March low) and help confirm further unwinding of global risk appetite.

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY

Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup.

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

6

AUD/USD

AUD/USD AUD/USD DEMARK™ (1 YEAR) SELL (Weekly) SIGNALS STRUCTURAL LEVEL 38.2% (0.9144) 3 YEAR 50%
AUD/USD
AUD/USD
DEMARK™
(1 YEAR)
SELL
(Weekly)
SIGNALS
STRUCTURAL
LEVEL
38.2%
(0.9144)
3 YEAR
50%
UPTREND
(0.8546)
IS UNDER
PRESSURE
200-DMA
61.8%
(1.0405)
(0.7947)
KEY
ZONE
AUD/USD daily, weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/NZD
AUD/JPY
DEMARK™
13
SELL SIGNAL
(Daily)
(Daily)
REVERSING
INTO
200-DMA
38.2%
(76.70)
200-
DMA
50%
(82.47)
(72.58)
61.8%
(68.47)
RESUMPTION OF
BREAKDOWN
ADDS TO
RISK AVERSION
KEY SUPPORT
1.2319 / 1.2100
AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily charts, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com
www.migbank.com

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

13 December, 2011

Sharp setbacks beneath 200-day MA at 1.0414.

AUD/USD has resumed its sharp setbacks beneath its 200-day MA which is

currently holding at 1.0414. This key level is likely to encourage further

downside scope over the multi-day-week horizon.

The bears must sustain below 1.0000 to further compound downside

pressure on the rate’s multi-year uptrend and push back towards 0.9611.

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains strong against the New Zealand

dollar. However, near-term price activity is mean reverting back into the 200-

day MA. Expect a sharp setback to ensue over the multi-day/week horizon.

The Aussie dollar pairing back its mild recovery against the Japanese yen,

while holding above the neck-line of its two-year distribution pattern. Watch

for further downside scope into support at 72.00 which would signal further

unwinding of global risk appetite.

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY

Sell stop 3: 1.0050, Obj: 0.9950/0.9660/0.9380, Stop: 1.0210.

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

7

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Finance LP GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP www.migbank.com DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December, 2011
Finance LP GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP www.migbank.com DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December, 2011
www.migbank.com
www.migbank.com

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

13 December, 2011

Fails to maintain break lower in the hourly timeframe.

GBP/JPY continues to trade in a similar manner to GBP/USD. Yesterdays downside test of the month long range failed, returning to trade within the range. However, the rise seen since 116.84 is deemed corrective in nature suggesting scope for a return to 119.38 and then 116.84 in the near-term, before a more lasting recovery.

As noted in prior reports, should this pair reach the 123.00 level, a degree of resistance would be anticipated. In the meantime, we remain wary of the short-term range bound environment but are re-instating the sell strategy at

123.00.

If the recent range bound trade is resolved to the downside, then the 120.00 level should provide a degree of support, from where a short-term leg higher would be favoured to develop.

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY

Sell limit 3 at 123.00, Objs: 122.00/121.00/120.00, Stop: 124.00

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424

8

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Finance LP EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP www.migbank.com DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December, 2011
Finance LP EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP www.migbank.com DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December, 2011
www.migbank.com
www.migbank.com

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

13 December, 2011

Trend channel contains hourly weakness.

EUR/JPY is likely to see a period of volatile trade due to its clear association with EUR/USD which is now approaching the key 1.3146 level. We are also wary of the possibility of coordinated intervention to maintain the stability of the Euro as a currency. This acts as a manipulation of the market, making technical analytics harder.

The clash in structure that we have noted in previous reports remains present, with the recent rise from 102.49 being deemed as corrective. However, the larger 100.76 111.60 rise is suggestive of a further leg higher back towards 111.60. Thus the directional clash in two timeframes is ever present.

As mentioned above, if EUR/USD breaks under 1.3146 this will end the rising phase seen since 2010 and would likely be associated with a fall back down to 100.76 in EUR/JPY and potentially lower.

It is preferred to see if a sustained break can be achieved under 1.3146 in EUR/USD, before committing to any directional bias.

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY

Await fresh signal.

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424

9

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Finance LP EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP www.migbank.com DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December, 2011
Finance LP EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP www.migbank.com DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December, 2011
www.migbank.com
www.migbank.com

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

13 December, 2011

Possible exhaustion pattern after break of trend-line support.

Sell strategy at 0.8700 removed. Negative bias remains.

EUR/GBP broke under 0.8486 yesterday. In doing so, a break under long- term trend-line support from 0.8068 has been achieved. However, we note that in the hourly and 5 minute timeframes, there are initial signs of exhaustion. It is anticipated that these patterns may lead to a repeat behaviour of this currency pair to exhibit a false break lower. Thus, although we have removed the prior sell strategy, we still await a recovery higher before participating in this market.

The message that we take away from the recent six party central bank coordination is that there is a demand for US Dollars amongst European banks. This fact is a warning sign and a clear weakness, suggesting scope for a credit contractionary phase. We continue to expect a continuation of rising yields in the Euro-Zone and it is within this environment that we see the potential for Sterling to be perceived as a safe haven.

Another trigger for participation in this possible break lower would be a lasting break under 1.3146 in EUR/USD, as this would likely have a knock on effect in all EUR crosses. We also note the continued trade under the 50 week and 200 day moving averages.

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY

Sell at 0.8700 removed. Look to sell higher.

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424

10

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Finance LP EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP www.migbank.com DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December, 2011
Finance LP EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP www.migbank.com DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December, 2011
www.migbank.com
www.migbank.com

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

13 December, 2011

Continues to trade within a tight range.

EUR/CHF saw an initial push higher above the 50 week moving average which again failed close to 1.2500, adding a further lower high to the sequence seen since the middle of October. Since reaching the 50 week moving average earlier in the year, it has acted as a decent region of resistance, warning that the larger down-trend may not be over. We will maintain our sell limit strategy at 1.2480 for now, as this represents a decent trade location during thin Christmas markets. However, we look to see if a break under 1.2226 can be achieved.

1.2226 will be used as a filter. Under 1.2226 we will swap our current sell limit strategy to a sell stop strategy at 1.2130, with objectives at 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 and a stop at 1.2230.

A rising sovereign yield environment may now be returning within the Euro- Zone, as discussed in other parts of this report. We look to see if Italian 10 year sovereign yields can return to the 7.000% handle. It is these kinds of pressures that may assist a return to and break of 1.2123/31. This represents the real goal of a lasting breakdown in the recent range bound structure.

The 1.2000 level is the only level that the SNB has suggested they will defend. There is thus likely to be a large cluster of stops under this level, which if triggered, could herald a return to the 1.0075 level.

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

 

Sell limit 3 at 1.2480, Objs: 1.2380/1.2226/1.1973, Stop: 1.2580.

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424

11

GOLD

GOLD KEY LEVELS RISK ZONE III DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 DOUBLE UPSIDE: $1760 /$1800 TOP
GOLD KEY LEVELS
RISK ZONE III
DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530
DOUBLE
UPSIDE:
$1760 /$1800
TOP
20%
DEMARK™ SIGNAL
SO FAR
WARNED OF
$1800
GOLD’S
OVERBOUGHT
$1760
CONDITIONS
$1600
34%
$1532
200-DMA
NOT BROKEN
IN 3 YEARS!
26%
CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530
UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINE
INTO $1300 & $1040-1000
TREND
CHANNEL
(12 YEARS)
COT NET LONG
SPECULATOR
POSITIONS
I
25%
OVER 2 YEARS OF
SIZEABLE LONG
GOLD
POSITIONS
UNDER THREAT
IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS
II
Gold weekly, daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com
www.migbank.com

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

13 December, 2011

Bearish breakout from triangle pattern targets $1600.

Gold’s bearish breakout from a multi-month triangle pattern targets initial

support at $1600/17. This is likely to accelerate from inter-market weakness

across related risk proxies such as EUR/USD and equity markets.

Moreover, there is still heightened risk for a much larger decline if we

confirm a weekly close beneath $1600/16 and $1530 (200-day MA/swing

low), which has not been breached in 3 years!

A number of “bargain hunting” trend-followers will be watching this

benchmark “line in the sand” for repeat support or a potential big squeeze

lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000 (12-year channelfloor).

Speculative (net long) flows also support this view having recently breached

a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold

positions. This will trigger a temporary, but dramatic setback that would

ultimately offer a unique buying opportunity into summer 2012.

Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY



SHORT 3: 1705, Obj: 1605, 1530, 1300, Stop: 1750

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

12

SILVER

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

13 December, 2011

Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! DEMARK™ 13 SELL Silver (Daily) I DEMARK™ SELL SIGNALS 200
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High!
DEMARK™
13
SELL
Silver (Daily)
I
DEMARK™
SELL SIGNALS
200 DMA
II
(36.9204)
KEY
SUPPORT
(26.0700)
38.2%
(32.3135)
Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio
50%
(26.9150)
61.8%
(21.5165)
13 YEAR LEVEL
UNWINDING 70% FROM
OVERSOLD TERRITORY
OVER 30 YEAR BASE PATTERN
BULL
MARKET
FROM
1999
Silver Monthly (since 1980)

Key support at $30.0000.

Silver is holding around key support at 30.0000. Only a sustained close below here would trigger a test of the previous swing low at 26.0700.

Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following the major sell-off in September. Such a dramatic move traditionally produces

volatile trading ranges. This allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.

Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8% Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silver’s long- term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual resumption higher.

Continue to watch the gold-silver “mint” ratio which has now accelerated higher by 70%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks. This also helps explain recent divergences between gold and silver.

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY



SHORT 3: 34.1300, Obj: 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 34.1300

Spot Silver daily and weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP
Spot Silver
daily and weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP
Spot Silver daily and weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP www.migbank.com Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:
Spot Silver daily and weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP www.migbank.com Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:
www.migbank.com
www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

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TERMS

DISCLAIMER

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before making any investment decision.

All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim. www.migbank.com DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December,
is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim. www.migbank.com DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December,
www.migbank.com
www.migbank.com

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

13 December, 2011

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Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

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CONTACT

CONTACT Howard Friend www.migbank.com Chief Market Strate g ist h.friend@migbank.com Ron William Technical Strate
CONTACT Howard Friend www.migbank.com Chief Market Strate g ist h.friend@migbank.com Ron William Technical Strate
CONTACT Howard Friend www.migbank.com Chief Market Strate g ist h.friend@migbank.com Ron William Technical Strate

Howard Friend

www.migbank.com

Chief Market Strategist h.friend@migbank.com

Ron William Technical Strategist r.william@migbank.com

Bjioy Kar Technical Strategist b.kar@migbank.com

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

13 December, 2011

14, rte des Gouttes d’Or CH-2008 Neuchâtel Tel.+41 32 722 81 00

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