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6 January, 2012
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MA
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
S-TERM
MULTI-DAY
L-TERM
MULTI-WEEK
STRATEGY/ POSITION
ENTRY LEVEL
OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS
STOP
SHORT 2 34.1300 Sell Stop 3 1.2130 LONG 3 119.40 Sell limit 3 0.9610
Await fresh signal. Await fresh signal. Mild bias to longs. Await new buy trade setup above 80.00. 0.9500/0.9306/0.9176 Awaiting new buy trade setup. Await fresh signal. 120.50/121.50/122.00 Possibly looking to buy short-term. Await signal. Look to sell higher. 1.2010/1.1526/1.1002 Stopped for profit at 1605. Two objectives met. 26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 34.1300 1.2250 118.90 0.9700
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports. CH-2008 Neuchtel info@migbank.com Switzerland www.migbank.com
EUR/USD EUR/USD
Prints a succession of lower lows.
EUR/USD has registered a lower high at 1.3199 and a fresh low in trade today.
This has also broken under the major low in 2011 at 1.2860, reaching 1.2763 thus far.
Inversely, the USD Index has extended its recovery higher to 80.85 so far (a move worth over 10% from the summer 2010 lows).
Speculative (net long) liquidity flows are strengthening once again and will continue to help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic oversold extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).
Special Report: EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410.
VIDEO
MIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months. US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
www.migbank.com
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 2
GBP/USD
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Await fresh signal. Mild bias to longs.
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 3
USD/JPY
Bears break from multi-day range.
USD/JPY has weakened sharply beneath 78.24 (DeMark Level), as price broke from a multi-day trading range (see hourly chart below). Confirmation beneath 77.25 (pivot level) now helps trigger a third price retracement, that we had been expecting, back to pre-intervention levels and potentially even a new post world war record low beneath 75.35.
Sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying pressure remains overcrowded as everyone continues to try and be the first to call the market bottom, within the end of this multi-year contracting pattern.
This may first inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders, which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal. The medium/long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a major long-term 40-year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection points to trigger over the next few weeks, offering a sustained move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.
Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY. Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal VIDEO Webinar: USD/JPYs Long-Term Structural Change Media Reports: CNBC / Squawk Box & Bloomberg
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Awaiting renewed buy trade setup above 80.00.
www.migbank.com
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 426 4
USD/CHF
region is expected to act as strong resistance. USD/CHF continues to be a tied to the fate of EUR/CHF and thus the ability of the SNB to successfully maintain its floor in EUR/CHF at 1.2000. We remain focused on the 1.2130 level in EUR/CHF, below which should increase the likelihood of selling towards the 1.2000 level. Fresh highs are still anticipated in 10 year Italian sovereign yields, with scope then for a minor pullback, maintaining downside pressure on USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP USD/CHF. 10 year yields in Spain and Italy are currently trading at 5.691% and 7.137% versus 6.478% and 7.355%, before the US Dollar based swap agreement. In both case we can see that the effects of the swap This reminds us that the
agreement was likely put in place due to a need for US Dollars by European financial institutions. This is a clear warning sign. These
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 0.9610, Objs: 0.9500/0.9306/0.9176, Stop: 0.9700
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 5
USD/CAD
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Awaiting new buy trade setup above 1.0425.
www.migbank.com
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 6
AUD/USD
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
www.migbank.com
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 7
GBP/JPY
weakness persist. This is in line with our longer-term view, where it is perceived that there is potential for a much larger recovery to develop with scope for a return GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP to 163.09 and then potentially on to 192.65. However, signs of basing are still not evident in the medium-term timeframe.
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Long 3 at 119.40, Objs: 120.50/121.50/122.00, Stop 118.90.
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 8
EUR/JPY
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Possibly looking to buy short term.
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 9
EUR/GBP
sought ahead of trade formulation. The change in characteristics of EUR/GBP is partly attributed to the breakdown in EUR/USD under 1.3146, which has assisted short positioning in other EUR crosses too. EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP As with all EUR crosses we need to keep a close eye on the core EuroZone sovereign bond markets. Within this environment Sterling may well be judged as a short-term safe haven, further adding to the potential for downside pressure ahead. Focus remains on the Italian bond market where yields are once again trading over 7.000%, with a host of rollover auctions scheduled for the first half of the year.
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Missed sell at 0.8425. Look to sell higher.
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 10
EUR/CHF
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 11
GOLD
Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage: Special Report Golds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600 Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box
(BLOOMBERG & CNBC REPORTS)
VIDEO
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Short stopped for profit at 1605. Initial two objectives met.
www.migbank.com
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 12
SILVER
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
SHORT 2: 34.1300, Objs: 26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 34.1300
www.migbank.com
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 13
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Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
www.migbank.com
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