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# 1

Exam MFE/3F
Sample Questions and Solutions

April 6, 2010
2

1. Consider a European call option and a European put option on a nondividend-paying
stock. You are given:

(i) The current price of the stock is 60.
(ii) The call option currently sells for 0.15 more than the put option.
(iii) Both the call option and put option will expire in 4 years.
(iv) Both the call option and put option have a strike price of 70.

Calculate the continuously compounded risk-free interest rate.

(A) 0.039
(B) 0.049
(C) 0.059
(D) 0.069
(E) 0.079

3

The put-call parity formula (for a European call and a European put on a stock with the
same strike price and maturity date) is
C P =
0,
( )
P
T
F K
= PV
0,T
(K)
= Ke
rT

= S
0
Ke
rT
,
because the stock pays no dividends

We are given that C P = 0.15, S
0
= 60, K = 70 and T = 4. Then, r = 0.039.

Remark 1: If the stock pays n dividends of fixed amounts D
1
, D
2
,, D
n
at fixed times t
1
,
t
2
,, t
n
prior to the option maturity date, T, then the put-call parity formula for European
put and call options is
C P = Ke
rT

= S
0
PV
0,T
(Div) Ke
rT
,
where PV
0,T
(Div)

=
n
i
i
rt
i
e D
1
is the present value of all dividends up to time T. The
difference, S
0
PV
0,T
(Div), is the prepaid forward price ) (
, 0
S F
P
T
.

Remark 2: The put-call parity formula above does not hold for American put and call
options. For the American case, the parity relationship becomes

S
0
PV
0,T
(Div) K C P S
0
Ke
rT
.

This result is given in Appendix 9A of McDonald (2006) but is not required for Exam
MFE/3F. Nevertheless, you may want to try proving the inequalities as follows:
For the first inequality, consider a portfolio consisting of a European call plus an amount
of cash equal to PV
0,T
(Div) + K.
For the second inequality, consider a portfolio of an American put option plus one share
of the stock.
0,
( )
P
T
F S
0,
( )
P
T
F S
0,
( )
P
T
F S
0,
( )
P
T
F S
4

2. Near market closing time on a given day, you lose access to stock prices, but some
European call and put prices for a stock are available as follows:

Strike Price Call Price Put Price
\$40 \$11 \$3
\$50 \$6 \$8
\$55 \$3 \$11

All six options have the same expiration date.

After reviewing the information above, John tells Mary and Peter that no arbitrage
opportunities can arise from these prices.

Mary disagrees with John. She argues that one could use the following portfolio to
obtain arbitrage profit: Long one call option with strike price 40; short three call
options with strike price 50; lend \$1; and long some calls with strike price 55.

Peter also disagrees with John. He claims that the following portfolio, which is
different from Marys, can produce arbitrage profit: Long 2 calls and short 2 puts
with strike price 55; long 1 call and short 1 put with strike price 40; lend \$2; and
short some calls and long the same number of puts with strike price 50.

Which of the following statements is true?

(A) Only John is correct.

(B) Only Mary is correct.

(C) Only Peter is correct.

(D) Both Mary and Peter are correct.

(E) None of them is correct.

5

The prices are not arbitrage-free. To show that Marys portfolio yields arbitrage profit,
we follow the analysis in Table 9.7 on page 302 of McDonald (2006).

Time 0
Time T
S
T
< 40 40 S
T
< 50 50 S
T
< 55 S
T
> 55
Strike 40
11 0 S
T
40 S
T
40 S
T
40
Sell 3 calls
Strike 50
+ 18 0 0 3(S
T
50) 3(S
T
50)
Lend \$1 1 e
rT
e
rT
e
rT
e
rT

strike 55
6 0 0 0 2(S
T
55)
Total 0 e
rT
> 0 e
rT
+ S
T
40
> 0
e
rT
+ 2(55 S
T
)
> 0
e
rT
> 0

Peters portfolio makes arbitrage profit, because:

Time-0 cash flow Time-T cash flow
Buy 2 calls & sells 2 puts
Strike 55
2(3 + 11) = 16 2(S
T
55)
Buy 1 call & sell 1 put
Strike 40
11 + 3 = 8

S
T
40
Lend \$2 2 2e
rT

Sell 3 calls & buy 3 puts
Strike 50
3(6 8) = 6 3(50 S
T
)
Total 0 2e
rT

Remarks: Note that Marys portfolio has no put options. The call option prices are not
arbitrage-free; they do not satisfy the convexity condition (9.17) on page 300 of
McDonald (2006). The time-T cash flow column in Peters portfolio is due to the identity
max[0, S K] max[0, K S] = S K

In Loss Models, the textbook for Exam C/4, max[0, o] is denoted as o
+
. It appears in the
context of stop-loss insurance, (S d)
+
, with S being the claim random variable and d the
deductible. The identity above is a particular case of
x = x
+
(x)
+
,
which says that every number is the difference between its positive part and negative
part.

6

3. An insurance company sells single premium deferred annuity contracts with return
linked to a stock index, the time-t value of one unit of which is denoted by S(t). The
contracts offer a minimum guarantee return rate of g%. At time 0, a single premium
of amount t is paid by the policyholder, and y% is deducted by the insurance
company. Thus, at the contract maturity date, T, the insurance company will pay the
policyholder
(1 y%) Max[S(T)/S(0), (1 + g%)
T
].

You are given the following information:
(i) The contract will mature in one year.
(ii) The minimum guarantee rate of return, g%, is 3%.
(iii) Dividends are incorporated in the stock index. That is, the stock index is
constructed with all stock dividends reinvested.
(iv) S(0) = 100.
(v) The price of a one-year European put option, with strike price of \$103, on the
stock index is \$15.21.

Determine y%, so that the insurance company does not make or lose money on this
contract.
7

Solution to (3)

The payoff at the contract maturity date is
(1 y%)Max[S(T)/S(0), (1 + g%)
T
]
= (1 y%)Max[S(1)/S(0), (1 + g%)
1
] because T = 1
= [t/S(0)](1 y%)Max[S(1), S(0)(1 + g%)]
= (t/100)(1 y%)Max[S(1), 103] because g = 3 & S(0)=100
= (t/100)(1 y%){S(1) + Max[0, 103 S(1)]}.

Now, Max[0, 103 S(1)] is the payoff of a one-year European put option, with strike
price \$103, on the stock index; the time-0 price of this option is given to be is \$15.21.
Dividends are incorporated in the stock index (i.e., o = 0); therefore, S(0) is the time-0
price for a time-1 payoff of amount S(1). Because of the no-arbitrage principle, the time-
0 price of the contract must be
(t/100)(1 y%){S(0) + 15.21}
= (t/100)(1 y%) 115.21.

Therefore, the break-even equation is
t = (t/100)(1 y%)115.21,
or
y% = 100 (1 1/1.1521)% = 13.202%

Remarks:
(i) Many stock indexes, such as S&P500, do not incorporate dividend reinvestments.
In such cases, the time-0 cost for receiving S(1) at time 1 is the prepaid forward
price
0,1
( )
P
F S , which is less than S(0).

(ii) The identities

Max[S(T), K] = K + Max[S(T) K, 0] = K + (S(T) K)
+

and

Max[S(T), K] = S(T) + Max[0, K S(T)] = S(T) + (K S(T))
+

can lead to a derivation of the put-call parity formula. Such identities are useful for
understanding Section 14.6 Exchange Options in McDonald (2006).

8

4. For a two-period binomial model, you are given:

(i) Each period is one year.
(ii) The current price for a nondividend-paying stock is 20.
(iii) u = 1.2840, where u is one plus the rate of capital gain on the stock per period if
the stock price goes up.
(iv) d = 0.8607, where d is one plus the rate of capital loss on the stock per period if
the stock price goes down.
(v) The continuously compounded risk-free interest rate is 5%.

Calculate the price of an American call option on the stock with a strike price of 22.

(A) 0
(B) 1
(C) 2
(D) 3
(E) 4

9

First, we construct the two-period binomial tree for the stock price.

The calculations for the stock prices at various nodes are as follows:

S
u
= 20 1.2840 = 25.680
S
d
= 20 0.8607 = 17.214
S
uu
= 25.68 1.2840 = 32.9731
S
ud
= S
du
= 17.214 1.2840 = 22.1028
S
dd
= 17.214 0.8607 = 14.8161

The risk-neutral probability for the stock price to go up is
4502 . 0
8607 . 0 2840 . 1
8607 . 0
*
05 . 0
=

=
e
d u
d e
p
rh
.
Thus, the risk-neutral probability for the stock price to go down is 0.5498.

If the option is exercised at time 2, the value of the call would be
C
uu
= (32.9731 22)
+
= 10.9731
C
ud
= (22.1028 22)
+
= 0.1028
C
dd
= (14.8161 22)
+
= 0

If the option is European, then C
u
= e
0.05
[0.4502C
uu
+ 0.5498C
ud
] = 4.7530 and
C
d
= e
0.05
[0.4502C
ud
+ 0.5498C
dd
] = 0.0440.
But since the option is American, we should compare C
u
and C
d
with the value of the
option if it is exercised at time 1, which is 3.68 and 0, respectively. Since 3.68 < 4.7530
and 0 < 0.0440, it is not optimal to exercise the option at time 1 whether the stock is in
the up or down state. Thus the value of the option at time 1 is either 4.7530 or 0.0440.

Finally, the value of the call is
C = e
0.05
[0.4502(4.7530) + 0.5498(0.0440)] = 2.0585.
20
17.214
25.680
22.1028
32.9731
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2
14.8161
10

Remark: Since the stock pays no dividends, the price of an American call is the same as
that of a European call. See pages 294-295 of McDonald (2006). The European option
price can be calculated using the binomial probability formula. See formula (11.17) on
page 358 and formula (19.1) on page 618 of McDonald (2006). The option price is

e
r(2h)
[
uu
C p
2
*
2
2
|
|
.
|

\
|
+
ud
C p p *) 1 ( *
1
2

|
|
.
|

\
|
+
dd
C p
2
*) 1 (
0
2

|
|
.
|

\
|
]
= e
0.1
[(0.4502)
2
10.9731 + 20.45020.54980.1028 + 0]
= 2.0507
11

5. Consider a 9-month dollar-denominated American put option on British pounds.
You are given that:

(i) The current exchange rate is 1.43 US dollars per pound.
(ii) The strike price of the put is 1.56 US dollars per pound.
(iii) The volatility of the exchange rate is o = 0.3.
(iv) The US dollar continuously compounded risk-free interest rate is 8%.
(v) The British pound continuously compounded risk-free interest rate is 9%.

Using a three-period binomial model, calculate the price of the put.

12

Solution to (5)

Each period is of length h = 0.25. Using the first two formulas on page 332 of McDonald
(2006):
u = exp[0.010.25 + 0.3 25 . 0 ] = exp(0.1475) = 1.158933,
d = exp[0.010.25 0.3 25 . 0 ] = exp(0.1525) = 0.858559.
Using formula (10.13), the risk-neutral probability of an up move is
4626 . 0
858559 . 0 158933 . 1
858559 . 0
*
25 . 0 01 . 0
=

=

e
p .
The risk-neutral probability of a down move is thus 0.5374. The 3-period binomial tree
for the exchange rate is shown below. The numbers within parentheses are the payoffs of
the put option if exercised.

The payoffs of the put at maturity (at time 3h) are
P
uuu
= 0, P
uud
= 0, P
udd
= 0.3384 and P
ddd
= 0.6550.

Now we calculate values of the put at time 2h for various states of the exchange rate.

If the put is European, then
P
uu
= 0,
P
ud
= e
0.02
[0.4626P
uud
+ 0.5374P
udd
] = 0.1783,
P
dd
= e
0.02
[0. 4626P
udd
+ 0.5374P
ddd
] = 0.4985.
But since the option is American, we should compare P
uu
, P
ud
and P
dd
with the values of
the option if it is exercised at time 2h, which are 0, 0.1371 and 0.5059, respectively.
Since 0.4985 < 0.5059, it is optimal to exercise the option at time 2h if the exchange rate
has gone down two times before. Thus the values of the option at time 2h are P
uu
= 0,
P
ud
= 0.1783 and P
dd
= 0.5059.

1.43
(0.13)
1.2277
(0.3323)
1.6573
(0)
1.4229
(0.1371)
1.2216
(0.3384)
1.9207
(0)
2.2259
(0)
Time 0 Time h Time 2h Time 3h
1.6490
(0)
1.0541
(0.5059)
0.9050
(0.6550)
13

Now we calculate values of the put at time h for various states of the exchange rate.

If the put is European, then
P
u
= e
0.02
[0.4626P
uu
+ 0.5374P
ud
] = 0.0939,
P
d
= e
0.02
[0.4626P
ud
+ 0.5374P
dd
] = 0.3474.
But since the option is American, we should compare P
u
and P
d
with the values of the
option if it is exercised at time h, which are 0 and 0.3323, respectively. Since 0.3474 >
0.3323, it is not optimal to exercise the option at time h. Thus the values of the option at
time h are P
u
= 0.0939 and P
d
= 0.3474.
Finally, discount and average P
u
and P
d
to get the time-0 price,
P = e
0.02
[0.4626P
u
+ 0.5374P
d
] = 0.2256.
Since it is greater than 0.13, it is not optimal to exercise the option at time 0 and hence
the price of the put is 0.2256.

Remarks:
(i) Because
h h r h h r
h h r h r
e e
e e
o o o + o
o o o

) ( ) (
) ( ) (
=
h h
h
e e
e
o o
o

1
=
h
e
o
+ 1
1
, we can also
calculate the risk-neutral probability p* as follows:
p* =
h
e
o
+ 1
1
=
25 . 0 3 . 0
1
1
e +
=
15 . 0
1
1
e +
= 0.46257.

(ii) 1 p* = 1
h
e
o
+ 1
1
=
h
h
e
e
o
o
+ 1
=
h
e
o
+ 1
1
.

(iii) Because o > 0, we have the inequalities

p* < < 1 p*.

14

6. You are considering the purchase of 100 units of a 3-month 25-strike European call
option on a stock.

You are given:
(i) The Black-Scholes framework holds.
(ii) The stock is currently selling for 20.
(iii) The stocks volatility is 24%.
(iv) The stock pays dividends continuously at a rate proportional to its price. The
dividend yield is 3%.
(v) The continuously compounded risk-free interest rate is 5%.

Calculate the price of the block of 100 options.

(A) 0.04
(B) 1.93
(C) 3.50
(D) 4.20
(E) 5.09

15

) ( ) ( ) , , , , , (
2 1
d N Ke d N Se T r K S C
rT T
=
o
o o (12.1)
with
T
T r K S
d
o
o o )
2
1
( ) / ln(
2
1
+ +
= (12.2a)
T d d o =
1 2
(12.2b)

Because S = \$20, K = \$25, o = 0.24, r = 0.05, T = 3/12 = 0.25, and o = 0.03, we have
25 . 0 24 . 0
25 . 0 ) 24 . 0
2
1
03 . 0 05 . 0 ( ) 25 / 20 ln(
2
1
+ +
= d = 1.75786
and
d
2
= 1.75786 25 . 0 24 . 0 = 1.87786

Because d
1
and d
2
are negative, use ) ( 1 ) (
1 1
d N d N = and ). ( 1 ) (
2 2
d N d N =
In Exam MFE/3F, round d
1
to 1.76 before looking up the standard normal distribution
table. Thus, N(d
1
) is 0392 . 0 9608 . 0 1 = . Similarly, round d
2
to 1.88, and N(d
2
) is thus
0301 . 0 9699 . 0 1 = .

Formula (12.1) becomes
0350 . 0 ) 0301 . 0 ( 25 ) 0392 . 0 ( 20
) 25 . 0 )( 05 . 0 ( ) 25 . 0 )( 03 . 0 (
= =

e e C

Cost of the block of 100 options = 100 0.0350 = \$3.50.
16

7. Company A is a U.S. international company, and Company B is a Japanese local
company. Company A is negotiating with Company B to sell its operation in
Tokyo to Company B. The deal will be settled in Japanese yen. To avoid a loss at
the time when the deal is closed due to a sudden devaluation of yen relative to
dollar, Company A has decided to buy at-the-money dollar-denominated yen put of
the European type to hedge this risk.

You are given the following information:
(i) The deal will be closed 3 months from now.
(ii) The sale price of the Tokyo operation has been settled at 120 billion Japanese
yen.
(iii) The continuously compounded risk-free interest rate in the U.S. is 3.5%.
(iv) The continuously compounded risk-free interest rate in Japan is 1.5%.
(v) The current exchange rate is 1 U.S. dollar = 120 Japanese yen.
(vi) The natural logarithm of the yen per dollar exchange rate is an arithmetic
Brownian motion with daily volatility 0.261712%.
(vii) 1 year = 365 days; 3 months = year.

Calculate Company As option cost.

17

Solution to (7)

Let X(t) be the exchange rate of U.S. dollar per Japanese yen at time t. That is, at time t,
1 = \$X(t).
We are given that X(0) = 1/120.

At time , Company A will receive 120 billion, which is exchanged to
\$[120 billion X()]. However, Company A would like to have
\$ Max[1 billion, 120 billion X()],
which can be decomposed as
\$120 billion X() + \$ Max[1 billion 120 billion X(), 0],
or
\$120 billion {X() + Max[120
1
X(), 0]}.

Thus, Company A purchases 120 billion units of a put option whose payoff three months
from now is
\$ Max[120
1
X(), 0].

The exchange rate can be viewed as the price, in US dollar, of a traded asset, which is the
Japanese yen. The continuously compounded risk-free interest rate in Japan can be
interpreted as o, the dividend yield of the asset. See also page 381 of McDonald (2006)
for the Garman-Kohlhagen model. Then, we have
r = 0.035, o = 0.015, S = X(0) = 1/120, K = 1/120, T = .

Because the logarithm of the exchange rate of yen per dollar is an arithmetic Brownian
motion, its negative, which is the logarithm of the exchange rate of dollar per yen, is also
an arithmetic Brownian motion and has the SAME volatility. Therefore, {X(t)} is a
geometric Brownian motion, and the put option can be priced using the Black-Scholes
formula for European put options. It remains to determine the value of o, which is given
by the equation
o
365
1
= 0.261712 %.
Hence,
o = 0.05.
Therefore,
d
1
=
T
T r
o
o + o ) 2 / (
2
=
4 / 1 05 . 0
4 / ) 2 / 05 . 0 015 . 0 035 . 0 (
2
+
= 0.2125
and

d
2
= d
1
o\T = 0.2125 0.05/2 = 0.1875.
By (12.3) of McDonald (2006), the time-0 price of 120 billion units of the put option is
\$120 billion [Ke
rT
N(d
2
) X(0)e
oT
N(d
1
)]
= \$ [e
rT
N(d
2
) e
oT
N(d
1
)] billion because K = X(0) = 1/120
= \$ {e
rT
[1 N(d
2
)] e
oT
[1 N(d
1
)]} billion
18

In Exam MFE/3F, you will be given a standard normal distribution table. Use the value
of N(0.21) for N(d
1
), and N(0.19) for N(d
1
).

Because N(0.21) = 0.5832, N(0.19) = 0.5753, e
rT
= e
0.0350.25

= 0.9963, and
e
oT
= e
0.0150.25

= 0.9963, Company As option cost is
0.9963 0.4247 0.9963 0.4168 = 0.005747 billion ~ \$5.75 million.

Remarks:
(i) Suppose that the problem is to be solved using options on the exchange rate of
Japanese yen per US dollar, i.e., using yen-denominated options. Let
\$1 = U(t)
at time t, i.e., U(t) = 1/X(t).

Because Company A is worried that the dollar may increase in value with respect to
the yen, it buys 1 billion units of a 3-month yen-denominated European call option,
with exercise price 120. The payoff of the option at time is
Max[U() 120, 0].

To apply the Black-Scholes call option formula (12.1) to determine the time-0 price
in yen, use
r = 0.015, o = 0.035, S = U(0) = 120, K = 120, T = , and o = 0.05.
Then, divide this price by 120 to get the time-0 option price in dollars. We get the
same price as above, because d
1
here is d
2
of above.

The above is a special case of formula (9.7) on page 292 of McDonald (2006).

(ii) There is a cheaper solution for Company A. At time 0, borrow
120exp( r

) billion,
and immediately convert this amount to US dollars. The loan is repaid with interest
at time when the deal is closed.
On the other hand, with the option purchase, Company A will benefit if the yen
increases in value with respect to the dollar.

19

8. You are considering the purchase of a 3-month 41.5-strike American call option on
a nondividend-paying stock.

You are given:
(i) The Black-Scholes framework holds.
(ii) The stock is currently selling for 40.
(iii) The stocks volatility is 30%.
(iv) The current call option delta is 0.5.

Determine the current price of the option.

(A) 20 20.453
}

15 . 0
2 /
d
2
x e
x

(B) 20 16.138
}

15 . 0
2 /
d
2
x e
x

(C) 20 40.453
}

15 . 0
2 /
d
2
x e
x

(D) 453 . 20 d 138 . 16
15 . 0
2 /
2

}

x e
x

(E)
}

15 . 0
2 /
d 453 . 40
2
x e
x
20.453

20

Since it is never optimal to exercise an American call option before maturity if the stock
pays no dividends, we can price the call option using the European call option formula
) ( ) (
2 1
d N Ke d SN C
rT
= ,
where
T
T r K S
d
o
o )
2
1
( ) / ln(
2
1
+ +
= and T d d o =
1 2
.

Because the call option delta is N(d
1
) and it is given to be 0.5, we have d
1
= 0.
Hence,
d
2
= 25 . 0 3 . 0 = 0.15 .

To find the continuously compounded risk-free interest rate, use the equation
0
25 . 0 3 . 0
25 . 0 ) 3 . 0
2
1
( ) 5 . 41 / 40 ln(
2
1
=
+ +
=
r
d ,

which gives r = 0.1023.

Thus,
C = 40N(0) 41.5e
0.1023 0.25
N(0.15)
= 20 40.453[1 N(0.15)]
= 40.453N(0.15) 20.453
=
}

t
15 . 0
2 /
d
2
453 . 40
2
x e
x
20.453
= 453 . 20 d 138 . 16
15 . 0
2 /
2

}

x e
x

21

9. Consider the Black-Scholes framework. A market-maker, who delta-hedges, sells a
three-month at-the-money European call option on a nondividend-paying stock.

You are given:
(i) The continuously compounded risk-free interest rate is 10%.
(ii) The current stock price is 50.
(iii) The current call option delta is 0.6179.
(iv) There are 365 days in the year.

If, after one day, the market-maker has zero profit or loss, determine the stock price
move over the day.

(A) 0.41
(B) 0.52
(C) 0.63
(D) 0.75
(E) 1.11

22

Solution to (9)

According to the first paragraph on page 429 of McDonald (2006), such a stock price
move is given by plus or minus of
o S(0) h ,
where h = 1/365 and S(0) = 50. It remains to find o.

Because the stock pays no dividends (i.e., o = 0), it follows from the bottom of page 383
that A = N(d
1
). By the condition N(d
1
) = 0.6179, we get d
1
= 0.3. Because S = K and
o = 0, formula (12.2a) is
d
1
=
T
T r
o
o ) 2 / (
2
+

or
o
2

T
d
1
o + r = 0.
With d
1
= 0.3, r = 0.1, and T = 1/4, the quadratic equation becomes
o
2
0.6o + 0.1 = 0,
whose roots can be found by using the quadratic formula or by factorization,
(o 1)(o 0.2) = 0.
We reject o = 1 because such a volatility seems too large (and none of the five answers
fit). Hence,
o S(0) h = 0.2 50 0.052342 ~ 0.52.

Remarks: The Its Lemma in Chapter 20 of McDonald (2006) can help us understand
Section 13.4. Let C(S, t) be the price of the call option at time t if the stock price is S at
that time. We use the following notation
C
S
(S, t) = ) , ( t S C
S c
c
, C
SS
(S, t) = ) , (
2
2
t S C
S c
c
, C
t
(S, t) = ) , ( t S C
t c
c
,
A
t
= C
S
(S(t), t), I
t
= C
SS
(S(t), t), u
t
= C
t
(S(t), t).

At time t, the so-called market-maker sells one call option, and he delta-hedges, i.e., he
t
, shares of the stock. At time t + dt, the stock price moves to S(t + dt), and
option price becomes C(S(t + dt), t + dt). The interest expense for his position is
[A
t
S(t) C(S(t), t)](rdt).
Thus, his profit at time t + dt is
A
t
[S(t + dt) S(t)] [C(S(t + dt), t + dt) C(S(t), t)] [A
t
S(t) C(S(t), t)](rdt)
= A
t
dS(t) dC(S(t), t) [A
t
S(t) C(S(t), t)](rdt). (*)

We learn from Section 20.6 that
dC(S(t), t) = C
S
(S(t), t)dS(t) + C
SS
(S(t), t)[dS(t)]
2
+ C
t
(S(t), t)dt (20.28)
= A
t
dS(t) + I
t
[dS(t)]
2
+ u
t
dt. (**)

23

Because dS(t) = S(t)[o dt + o dZ(t)], it follows from the multiplication rules (20.17) that
[dS(t)]
2
= [S(t)]
2
o
2
dt, (***)
which should be compared with (13.8). Substituting (***) in (**) yields
dC(S(t), t) = A
t
dS(t) + I
t
[S(t)]
2
o
2
dt + u
t
dt,
application of which to (*) shows that the market-makers profit at time t + dt is
{I
t
[S(t)]
2
o
2
dt + u
t
dt} [A
t
S(t) C(S(t), t)](rdt)
= {I
t
[S(t)]
2
o
2
+ u
t
+ [A
t
S(t) C(S(t), t)]r}dt, (****)
which is the same as (13.9) if dt can be h.

Now, at time t, the value of stock price, S(t), is known. Hence, expression (****), the
market-makers profit at time t+dt, is not stochastic. If there are no riskless arbitrages,
then quantity within the braces in (****) must be zero,
C
t
(S, t) + o
2
S
2
C
SS
(S, t)

+ rSC
S
(S, t) rC(S, t) = 0,
which is the celebrated Black-Scholes equation (13.10) for the price of an option on a
nondividend-paying stock. Equation (21.11) in McDonald (2006) generalizes (13.10) to
the case where the stock pays dividends continuously and proportional to its price.

Let us consider the substitutions
dt h
dS(t) = S(t + dt) S(t) S(t + h) S(t),
dC(S(t), t) = C(S(t + dt), t + dt) C(S(t), t) C(S(t + h), t + h) C(S(t), t).
Then, equation (**) leads to the approximation formula
C(S(t + h), t + h) C(S(t), t) ~ A
t
|S(t + h) S(t)| + I
t
[S(t + h) S(t)|
2
+ u
t
h,
which is given near the top of page 665. Figure 13.3 on page 426 is an illustration of this
approximation. Note that in formula (13.6) on page 426, the equal sign, =, should be
replaced by an approximately equal sign such as ~.

Although (***) holds because {S(t)} is a geometric Brownian motion, the analogous
equation,
[S(t + h) S(t)|
2
= [o S(t)|
2
h, h > 0,
which should be compared with (13.8) on page 429, almost never holds. If it turns out
that it holds, then the market makers profit is approximated by the right-hand side of
(13.9). The expression is zero because of the Black-Scholes partial differential equation.

24

10. Consider the Black-Scholes framework. Let S(t) be the stock price at time t, t > 0.
Define X(t) = ln[S(t)].

You are given the following three statements concerning X(t).

(i) {X(t), t > 0} is an arithmetic Brownian motion.
(ii) Var[X(t + h) X(t)] = o
2
h, t > 0, h > 0.
(iii)

=

n
j
n
n T j X n jT X
1
2
)] / ) 1 (( ) / ( [ lim = o
2
T.
(A) Only (i) is true
(B) Only (ii) is true
(C) Only (i) and (ii) are true
(D) Only (i) and (iii) are true
(E) (i), (ii) and (iii) are true

25

(i) is true. That {S(t)} is a geometric Brownian motion means exactly that its logarithm is
an arithmetic Brownian motion. (Also see the solution to problem (11).)

(ii) is true. Because {X(t)} is an arithmetic Brownian motion, the increment, X(t + h)
X(t), is a normal random variable with variance o
2
h. This result can also be found at the
bottom of page 605.

(iii) is true. Because X(t) = ln S(t), we have
X(t + h) X(t) = h + o[Z(t + h) Z(t)],
where {Z(t)} is a (standard) Brownian motion and = o o o
2
. (Here, we assume
the stock price follows (20.25), but the actual value of is not important.) Then,
[X(t + h) X(t)]
2
=
2
h
2
+ 2ho[Z(t + h) Z(t)] + o
2
[Z(t + h) Z(t)]
2
.
With h = T/n,

=

n
j
n T j X n jT X
1
2
)] / ) 1 (( ) / ( [
=
2
T
2
/ n + 2(T/n) o [Z(T) Z(0)] + o
2

=

n
j
n T j Z n jT Z
1
2
)] / ) 1 (( ) / ( [ .
As n , the first two terms on the last line become 0, and the sum becomes T
according to formula (20.6) on page 653.

Remarks: What is called arithmetic Brownian motion is the textbook is called
Brownian motion by many other authors. What is called Brownian motion is the
textbook is called standard Brownian motion by others.
Statement (iii) is a non-trivial result: The limit of sums of stochastic terms turns
out to be deterministic. A consequence is that, if we can observe the prices of a stock
over a time interval, no matter how short the interval is, we can determine the value of o
by evaluating the quadratic variation of the natural logarithm of the stock prices. Of
course, this is under the assumption that the stock price follows a geometric Brownian
26

motion. This result is a reason why the true stock price process (20.25) and the risk-
neutral stock price process (20.26) must have the same o. A discussion on realized
quadratic variation can be found on page 755 of McDonald (2006).
A quick proof of the quadratic variation formula (20.6) can be obtained using
the multiplication rule (20.17c). The left-hand side of (20.6) can be seen as
}
T
t Z
0
2
)] ( d [ .
Formula (20.17c) states that
2
)] ( d [ t Z = dt. Thus,

}
T
t Z
0
2
)] ( d [ =
}
T
t
0
d = T.
27

11. Consider the Black-Scholes framework. You are given the following three
statements on variances, conditional on knowing S(t), the stock price at time t.

(i) Var[ln S(t + h) | S(t)] = o
2
h, h > 0.
(ii) Var
(

) (
) (
) ( d
t S
t S
t S
= o
2
dt
(iii)Var[S(t + dt) | S(t)] = S(t)
2
o
2
dt

(A) Only (i) is true
(B) Only (ii) is true
(C) Only (i) and (ii) are true
(D) Only (ii) and (iii) are true
(E) (i), (ii) and (iii) are true

28

Here are some facts about geometric Brownian motion. The solution of the stochastic
differential equation

) (
) ( d
t S
t S
= o dt + o dZ(t) (20.1)
is
S(t) = S(0) exp[(o o
2
)t + o Z(t)]. (*)
Formula (*), which can be verified to satisfy (20.1) by using Its Lemma, is equivalent
to formula (20.29), which is the solution of the stochastic differential equation (20.25). It
follows from (*) that
S(t + h) = S(t) exp[(o o
2
)h + o |Z(t + h) Z(t)]], h > 0. (**)
From page 650, we know that the random variable |Z(t + h) Z(t)] has the same
distribution as Z(h), i.e., it is normal with mean 0 and variance h.

(i) is true: The logarithm of equation (**) shows that given the value of S(t), ln[S(t + h)]
is a normal random variable with mean (ln[S(t)] + (o o
2
)h) and variance o
2
h. See
also the top paragraph on page 650 of McDonald (2006).

(ii) is true: Var
(

) (
) (
) ( d
t S
t S
t S
= Var[o dt + o dZ(t)|S(t)]
= Var[o dt + o dZ(t)|Z(t)],
because it follows from (*) that knowing the value of S(t) is equivalent to knowing the
value of Z(t). Now,
Var[odt + o dZ(t)|Z(t)] = Var[o dZ(t)|Z(t)]
= o
2
Var[dZ(t)|Z(t)]
= o
2
Var[dZ(t)] independent increments
= o
2
dt.

Remark: The unconditional variance also has the same answer: Var
(

) (
) ( d
t S
t S
= o
2
dt.
29

(iii) is true because (ii) is the same as
Var[dS(t) | S(t)] = S(t)
2
o
2
dt,
and
Var[dS(t) | S(t)] = Var[S(t + dt) S(t) | S(t)]
= Var[S(t + dt) | S(t)].

A direct derivation for (iii):
Var[S(t + dt) | S(t)] = Var[S(t + dt) S(t) | S(t)]
= Var[dS(t) | S(t)]
= Var[o S(t)dt + o S(t)dZ(t) | S(t)]
= Var[o S(t) dZ(t) | S(t)]
= [o S(t)]
2
Var[dZ(t) | S(t)]
= [o S(t)]
2
Var[Z(t + dt) Z(t) | S(t)]
= [o S(t)]
2
Var[Z(dt)]
= [o S(t)]
2
dt

We can also show that (iii) is true by means of the formula for the variance of a
lognormal random variable (McDonald 2006, eq. 18.14): It follows from formula (**) on
the last page that
Var[S(t + h) | S(t)] = Var[S(t) exp[(o o
2
)h + o |Z(t + h) Z(t)]] | S(t)]
= [S(t)]
2
exp[2(o o
2
)h] Var[exp[o |Z(t + h) Z(t)]] | S(t)]
= [S(t)]
2
exp[2(o o
2
)h] Var[exp[o Z(h)]]
= [S(t)]
2
exp[2(o o
2
)h]
2 2
( 1)
h h
e e
o o

= [S(t)]
2
exp[2(o o
2
)h]
2
2
( )
h
e h
o
o + .
Thus,
Var[S(t + dt) | S(t)] = [S(t)]
2
1 1 (dt o
2
),
which is (iii).
30

12. Consider two nondividend-paying assets X and Y. There is a single source of
uncertainty which is captured by a standard Brownian motion {Z(t)}. The prices of
the assets satisfy the stochastic differential equations

d ( )
( )
X t
X t
= 0.07dt + 0.12dZ(t)
and
d ( )
( )
Y t
Y t
where A and B are constants.

You are also given:

(i) d[ln Y(t)] = dt + 0.085dZ(t);

(ii) The continuously compounded risk-free interest rate is 4%.

Determine A.

(A) 0.0604
(B) 0.0613
(C) 0.0650
(D) 0.0700
(E) 0.0954

31

If f(x) is a twice-differentiable function of one variable, then Its Lemma (page 664)
simplifies as
df(Y(t)) = f (Y(t))dY(t) + f (Y(t))[dY(t)]
2
,
because ) (x f
t c
c
= 0.

If f(x) = ln x, then f (x) = 1/x and f (x) = 1/x
2
. Hence,
d[ln Y(t)] =
) (
1
t Y
dY(t) +
2
2
)] ( d [
)] ( [
1
2
1
t Y
t Y
|
|
.
|

\
|
. (1)
We are given that
dY(t) = Y(t)[Adt + BdZ(t)]. (2)
Thus,
[dY(t)]
2
2
= [Y(t)]
2
B
2
dt, (3)
by applying the multiplication rules (20.17) on pages 658 and 659. Substituting (2) and
(3) in (1) and simplifying yields
d [ln Y(t)] = (A
2
2
B
)dt + BdZ(t).
It thus follows from condition (i) that B = 0.085.

It is pointed out in Section 20.4 that two assets having the same source of randomness
must have the same Sharpe ratio. Thus,
(0.07 0.04)/0.12 = (A 0.04)/B = (A 0.04)/0.085
Therefore, A = 0.04 + 0.085(0.25) = 0.06125 ~ 0.0613
32

13. Let {Z(t)} be a standard Brownian motion. You are given:

(i) U(t) = 2Z(t) 2
(ii) V(t) = [Z(t)]
2
t
(iii) W(t) = t
2
Z(t)
}
t
s s sZ
0
d ) ( 2

Which of the processes defined above has / have zero drift?

(A) {V(t)} only

(B) {W(t)} only

(C) {U(t)} and {V(t)} only

(D) {V(t)} and {W(t)} only

(E) All three processes have zero drift.

33

Apply Its Lemma.

(i) dU(t) = 2dZ(t) 0 = 0dt + 2dZ(t).
Thus, the stochastic process {U(t)} has zero drift.

(ii) dV(t) = d[Z(t)]
2
dt.
d[Z(t)]
2
= 2Z(t)dZ(t) +
2
2
[dZ(t)]
2

= 2Z(t)dZ(t) + dt
by the multiplication rule (20.17c) on page 659. Thus,
dV(t) = 2Z(t)dZ(t).
The stochastic process {V(t)} has zero drift.

(iii) dW(t) = d[t
2
Z(t)] 2t Z(t)dt
Because
d[t
2
Z(t)] = t
2
dZ(t) + 2tZ(t)dt,
we have
dW(t) = t
2
dZ(t).
The process {W(t)} has zero drift.

34

14. You are using the Vasicek one-factor interest-rate model with the short-rate process
calibrated as
dr(t)

= 0.6[b r(t)]dt + odZ(t).
For t s T, let P(r, t, T) be the price at time t of a zero-coupon bond that pays \$1 at
time T, if the short-rate at time t is r. The price of each zero-coupon bond in the
Vasicek model follows an It process,
] , ), ( [
] , ), ( [
T t t r P
T t t r dP
= o[r(t), t, T] dt q[r(t), t, T] dZ(t), t s T.

You are given that o(0.04, 0, 2) = 0.04139761.
Find o(0.05, 1, 4).
35

Solution to (14)
For t < T, o(r, t, T) is the time-t continuously compounded expected rate of return
on the zero-coupon bond that matures for 1 at time T, with the short-rate at time t being r.
Because all bond prices are driven by a single source of uncertainties, {Z(t)}, the
no-arbitrage condition implies that the ratio,
) , , (
) , , (
T t r q
r T t r o
, does not depend on T. See
(24.16) on page 782 and (20.24) on page 660 of McDonald (2006).
In the Vasicek model, the ratio is set to be |, a constant. Thus, we have

) 2 , 0 , 04 . 0 (
04 . 0 ) 2 , 0 , 04 . 0 (
) 4 , 1 , 05 . 0 (
05 . 0 ) 4 , 1 , 05 . 0 (
q q
o
=
o
. (*)
To finish the problem, we need to know q, which is the coefficient of dZ(t) in
] , ), ( [
] , ), ( [
T t t r P
T t t r dP
. To evaluate the numerator, we apply Its Lemma:
dP[r(t), t, T] = P
t
[r(t), t, T]dt + P
r
[r(t), t, T]dr(t) + P
rr
[r(t), t, T][dr(t)]
2
,
which is a portion of (20.10). Because dr(t)

= a[b r(t)]dt + odZ(t), we have
[dr(t)]
2
= o
2
dt, which has no dZ term. Thus, we see that
q(r, t, T) = oP
r
(r, t, T)/P(r, t, T) which is a special case of (24.12)
= o
r c
c
ln|P(r, t, T)].
In the Vasicek model and in the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model, the zero-coupon bond
price is of the form
P(r, t, T) = A(t, T) e
B(t, T)r
;
hence,
q(r, t, T) = o
r c
c
ln|P(r, t, T)] = oB(t, T).
In fact, both A(t, T) and B(t, T) are functions of the time to maturity, T t. In the Vasicek
model, B(t, T) = [1 e
a(T t)
]/a. Thus, equation (*) becomes

) 0 2 ( ) 1 4 (
1
04 . 0 ) 2 , 0 , 04 . 0 (
1
05 . 0 ) 4 , 1 , 05 . 0 (

o
=

o
a a
e e
.
Because a = 0.6 and o(0.04, 0, 2) = 0.04139761, we get o(0.05, 1, 4) = 0.05167.

36

Remarks:

(i) The second equation in the problem is equation (24.1) [or (24.13)] of MacDonald
(2006). In its first printing, the minus sign on the right-hand side is a plus sign.

(ii) Unfortunately, zero-coupon bond prices are denoted as P(r, t, T) and also as
P(t, T, r) in McDonald (2006).

(iii)One can remember the formula,
B(t, T) = [1 e
a(T t)
]/a,
in the Vasicek model as
|force of interest = T t a
a

, the present value of a continuous
annuity-certain of rate 1, payable for T t years, and evaluated at force of interest a,
where a is the speed of mean reversion for the associated short-rate process.

(iv) If the zero-coupon bond prices are of the so-called affine form,
P(r , t, T) = A(t, T) e
B(t, T)r
,
where A(t, T) and B(t, T) are independent of r, then (24.12) becomes
q(r, t, T) = (r)B(t, T).
Thus, (24.17) is
|(r, t) =
) , , (
) , , (
T t r q
r T t r o
=
) , ( ) (
) , , (
T t B r
r T t r
o
o
,
from which we obtain
o(r, t, T) = r + |(r, t)o(r) B(t, T).
In the Vasicek model, (r) = , |(r, t) = |, and
o(r, t, T) = r + |B(t, T).

In the CIR model, (r) = r , |(r, t) =
o
| r
, and
o(r, t, T) = r + ) , ( T t rB | .

In either model, A(t, T) and B(t, T) depend on the variables t and T by means of their
difference T t, which is the time to maturity.

(v) Formula (24.20) on page 783 of McDonald (2006) is
P(r, t, T) = E*[exp(
}
T
t
s r ) ( ds) | r(t) = r],
where the asterisk signifies that the expectation is taken with respect to the risk-
neutral probability measure. Under the risk-neutral probability measure, the expected
rate of return on each asset is the risk-free interest rate. Now, (24.13) is
37

] , ), ( [
] , ), ( [
T t t r P
T t t r dP
= o[r(t), t, T] dt q[r(t), t, T] dZ(t)
= r(t) dt q[r(t), t, T] dZ(t) + {o[r(t), t, T] r(t)}dt
= r(t) dt q[r(t), t, T]{dZ(t)
] , ), ( [
) ( ] , ), ( [
T t t r q
t r T t t r o
dt}
= r(t) dt q[r(t), t, T]{dZ(t) |[r(t), t]dt}. (**)
Let us define the stochastic process { ( ) Z t

} by
) (
~
t Z = Z(t)
}
t
0
|[r(s), s]ds.
Then, applying
) (
~
t Z = dZ(t) |[r(t), t]dt (***)
to (**) yields

] , ), ( [
] , ), ( [
T t t r P
T t t r dP
= r(t)dt q[r(t), t, T]d ) (
~
t Z ,
which is analogous to (20.26) on page 661. The risk-neutral probability measure is
such that ) (
~
t Z is a standard Brownian motion.
Applying (***) to equation (24.2) yields
dr(t) = a[r(t)]dt + [r(t)]dZ(t)
= a[r(t)]dt + [r(t)]{d ) (
~
t Z + |[r(t), t]dt}
= {a[r(t)] + [r(t)]|[r(t), t]}dt + [r(t)]d ) (
~
t Z ,
which is (24.19) on page 783 of McDonald (2006).

38

15. You are given the following incomplete Black-Derman-Toy interest rate tree model
for the effective annual interest rates:

Calculate the price of a year-4 caplet for the notional amount of \$100. The cap rate
is 10.5%.

9%
9.3%
12.6%
13.5%
11%
17.2%

Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
16.8%
39

Solution to (15)
First, let us fill in the three missing interest rates in the B-D-T binomial tree. In terms of
the notation in Figure 24.4 of McDonald (2006), the missing interest rates are r
d
, r
ddd
, and
r
uud
. We can find these interest rates, because in each period, the interest rates in
different states are terms of a geometric progression.

% 6 . 10
135 . 0
172 . 0 135 . 0
= =
dd
dd
r
r

% 6 . 13
168 . 0
11 . 0
= =
uud
uud
uud
r
r
r

% 9 . 8
11 . 0
168 . 0 11 . 0
2
= =
|
|
.
|

\
|
ddd
ddd
r
r

The payment of a year-4 caplet is made at year 4 (time 4), and we consider its discounted
value at year 3 (time 3). At year 3 (time 3), the binomial model has four nodes; at that
time, a year-4 caplet has one of four values:

, 394 . 5
168 . 1
5 . 10 8 . 16
=

, 729 . 2
136 . 1
5 . 10 6 . 13
=

, 450 . 0
11 . 1
5 . 10 11
=

and 0 because r
ddd
= 8.9%
which is less than 10.5%.

For the Black-Derman-Toy model, the risk-neutral probability for an up move is .
We now calculate the caplets value in each of the three nodes at time 2:

4654 . 3
172 . 1
2 / ) 729 . 2 394 . 5 (
=
+
, 4004 . 1
135 . 1
2 / ) 450 . 0 729 . 2 (
=
+
, 2034 . 0
106 . 1
2 / ) 0 450 . 0 (
=
+
.

Then, we calculate the caplets value in each of the two nodes at time 1:

1607 . 2
126 . 1
2 / ) 4004 . 1 4654 . 3 (
=
+
, 7337 . 0
093 . 1
2 / ) 2034 . 0 40044 . 1 (
=
+
.
Finally, the time-0 price of the year-4 caplet is 3277 . 1
09 . 1
2 / ) 7337 . 0 1607 . 2 (
=
+
.

Remarks:
(i) The discussion on caps and caplets on page 805 of McDonald (2006) involves a loan.
This is not necessary.
(ii) If your copy of McDonald was printed before 2008, then you need to correct the
typographical errors on page 805; see
http://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/mcdonald/htm/typos2e_01.html
(iii)In the earlier version of this problem, we mistakenly used the term year-3 caplet for
year-4 caplet.
40

Alternative Solution: The payoff of the year-4 caplet is made at year 4 (at time 4). In a
binomial lattice, there are 16 paths from time 0 to time 4.
For the uuuu path, the payoff is (16.8 10.5)
+

For the uuud path, the payoff is also (16.8 10.5)
+

For the uudu path, the payoff is (13.6 10.5)
+

For the uudd path, the payoff is also (13.6 10.5)
+

:
:
We discount these payoffs by the one-period interest rates (annual interest rates) along
interest-rate paths, and then calculate their average with respect to the risk-neutral
probabilities. In the Black-Derman-Toy model, the risk-neutral probability for each
interest-rate path is the same. Thus, the time-0 price of the caplet is
16
1
{
168 . 1 172 . 1 126 . 1 09 . 1
) 5 . 10 8 . 16 (

+
+
168 . 1 172 . 1 126 . 1 09 . 1
) 5 . 10 8 . 16 (

+

+
136 . 1 172 . 1 126 . 1 09 . 1
) 5 . 10 6 . 13 (

+
+
136 . 1 172 . 1 126 . 1 09 . 1
) 5 . 10 6 . 13 (

+
+ }
=
8
1
{
168 . 1 172 . 1 126 . 1 09 . 1
) 5 . 10 8 . 16 (

+

+
136 . 1 172 . 1 126 . 1 09 . 1
) 5 . 10 6 . 13 (

+
+
136 . 1 135 . 1 126 . 1 09 . 1
) 5 . 10 6 . 13 (

+
+
136 . 1 135 . 1 093 . 1 09 . 1
) 5 . 10 6 . 13 (

+

+
11 . 1 135 . 1 126 . 1 09 . 1
) 5 . 10 11 (

+
+
11 . 1 135 . 1 093 . 1 09 . 1
) 5 . 10 11 (

+
+
11 . 1 106 . 1 093 . 1 09 . 1
) 5 . 10 11 (

+

+
09 . 1 106 . 1 093 . 1 09 . 1
) 5 . 10 9 (

+
} = 1.326829.

Remark: In this problem, the payoffs are path-independent. The backward induction
method in the earlier solution is more efficient. However, if the payoffs are path-
dependent, then the price will need to be calculated by the path-by-path method
illustrated in this alternative solution.
41

16. Assume that the Black-Scholes framework holds. Let S(t) be the price of a
nondividend-paying stock at time t, t 0. The stocks volatility is 20%, and the
continuously compounded risk-free interest rate is 4%.

You are interested in contingent claims with payoff being the stock price raised to
some power. For 0 s t < T, consider the equation
,
[ ( ) ] ( )
P x x
t T
F S T S t = ,
where the left-hand side is the prepaid forward price at time t of a contingent claim
that pays ( )
x
S T at time T. A solution for the equation is x = 1.

Determine another x that solves the equation.

(A) 4
(B) 2
(C) 1
(D) 2
(E) 4
42

It follows from (20.30) in Proposition 20.3 that

P
T t
F
,
[S(T)
x
] = S(t)
x
exp{[r + x(r o) + x(x 1)o
2
](T t)},
which equals S(t)
x
if and only if
r + x(r o) + x(x 1)o
2
= 0.
This is a quadratic equation of x. With o = 0, the quadratic equation becomes
0 = r + xr + x(x 1)o
2

= (x 1)(o
2
x + r).
Thus, the solutions are 1 and 2r/o
2
= 2(4%)/(20%)
2
= 2, which is (B).

Remarks:

(i) McDonald (2006, Section 20.7) has provided three derivations for (20.30). Here is
another derivation. Define Y = ln[S(T)/S(t)]. Then,

P
T t
F
,
[S(T)
x
] = E
t
-
[e
r(Tt)
S(T)
x
] Prepaid forward price
= E
t
-
[e
r(Tt)
(S(t)e
Y
)
x
] Definition of Y
= e
r(Tt)
S(t)
x
E
t
-
[e
xY
]. The value of S(t) is not
random at time t
The problem is to find x such that e
r(Tt)

E
t
-
[e
xY
] = 1. The expectation E
t
-
[e
xY
] is the
moment-generating function of the random variable Y at the value x. Under the risk-
neutral probability measure, Y is normal with mean (r o o
2
)(T t) and variance
o
2
(T t). Thus, by the moment-generating function formula for a normal random
variable,
E
t
-
[e
xY
] = exp[x(r o o
2
)(T t) + x
2
o
2
(T t)],
and the problem becomes finding x such that
0 = r(T t) + x(r o o
2
)(T t) + x
2
o
2
(T t),
which is the same quadratic equation as above.
(ii) Applying the quadratic formula, one finds that the two solutions of
r + x(r o) + x(x 1)o
2
= 0
are x = h
1
and x = h
2
of Section 12.6 in McDonald (2006). A reason for this
coincidence is that x = h
1
and x = h
2
are the values for which the stochastic process
{e
rt
S(t)
x
} becomes a martingale. Martingales are mentioned on page 651 of
McDonald (2006).
(iii)Before time T, the contingent claim does not pay anything. Thus, the prepaid forward
price at time t is in fact the time-t price of the contingent claim.
43

17. You are to estimate a nondividend-paying stocks annualized volatility using its
prices in the past nine months.

Month Stock Price (\$/share)
1 80
2 64
3 80
4 64
5 80
6 100
7 80
8 64
9 80

Calculate the historical volatility for this stock over the period.

(A) 83%
(B) 77%
(C) 24%
(D) 22%
(E) 20%
44

This problem is based on Sections 11.3 and 11.4 of McDonald (2006), in particular,
Table 11.1 on page 361.

Let {r
j
} denote the continuously compounded monthly returns. Thus, r
1
= ln(80/64),
r
2
= ln(64/80), r
3
= ln(80/64), r
4
= ln(64/80), r
5
= ln(80/100), r
6
= ln(100/80),
r
7
= ln(80/64), and r
8
= ln(64/80). Note that four of them are ln(1.25) and the other four
are ln(1.25); in particular, their mean is zero.

The (unbiased) sample variance of the non-annualized monthly returns is

n
j
j
r r
n
1
2
) (
1
1
=

=

8
1
2
) (
7
1
j
j
r r =

=
8
1
2
) (
7
1
j
j
r =
7
8
[ln(1.25)]
2
.
The annual standard deviation is related to the monthly standard deviation by formula
(11.5),
o =
h
h
o
,
where h = 1/12. Thus, the historical volatility is
12
7
8
ln(1.25) = 82.6%.

Remarks: Further discussion is given in Section 23.2 of McDonald (2006). Suppose that
we observe n continuously compounded returns over the time period [t, t + T]. Then,
h = T/n, and the historical annual variance of returns is estimated as

h
1

n
j
j
r r
n
1
2
) (
1
1
=
T
1

n
j
j
r r
n
n
1
2
) (
1
.
Now,
r =

=
n
j
j
r
n
1
1
=
n
1
) (
) (
ln
t
+ t
S
T S
,
which is close to zero when n is large. Thus, a simpler estimation formula is
h
1

n
j
j
r
n
1
2
) (
1
1
which is formula (23.2) on page 744, or equivalently,
T
1

n
j
j
r
n
n
1
2
) (
1
which is the formula in footnote 9 on page 756. The last formula is related to #10 in this
set of sample problems: With probability 1,

=

n
j
n
n T j S n jT S
1
2
)] / ) 1 (( ln ) / ( [ln lim = o
2
T.
45

18. A market-maker sells 1,000 1-year European gap call options, and delta-hedges the
position with shares.

You are given:
(i) Each gap call option is written on 1 share of a nondividend-paying stock.
(ii) The current price of the stock is 100.
(iii) The stocks volatility is 100%.
(iv) Each gap call option has a strike price of 130.
(v) Each gap call option has a payment trigger of 100.
(vi) The risk-free interest rate is 0%.

Under the Black-Scholes framework, determine the initial number of shares in the
delta-hedge.

(A) 586
(B) 594
(C) 684
(D) 692
(E) 797

46

Note that, in this problem, r = 0 and = 0.

By formula (14.15) in McDonald (2006), the time-0 price of the gap option is
C
gap
= SN(d
1
) 130N(d
2
) = [SN(d
1
) 100N(d
2
)] 30N(d
2
) = C 30N(d
2
),
where d
1
and d
2
are calculated with K = 100 (and r = = 0) and T = 1, and C denotes the
time-0 price of the plain-vanilla call option with exercise price 100.

In the Black-Scholes framework, delta of a derivative security of a stock is the partial
derivative of the security price with respect to the stock price. Thus,

gap
=
S c
c
C
gap
=
S c
c
C 30
S c
c
N(d
2
) =
C
30N'(d
2
)
S c
c
d
2

= N(d
1
) 30N'(d
2
)
T So
1
,
where N'(x) =
t 2
1
2 /
2
x
e

## is the density function of the standard normal.

Now, with S = K = 100, T = 1, and o = 1,
d
1
= [ln(S/K) + o
2
T/2]/( T o ) = (o
2
T/2)/( T o ) = T o = ,
and d
2
= d
1
T o = . Hence, at time 0

gap
= N(d
1
) 30N'(d
2
)
100
1
= N() 0.3N'() = N() 0.3
t 2
1
2 / ) (
2
2
1

e
= 0.6915 0.3
t 2
8825 . 0
= 0.6915 0.30.352 = 0.6915 0.1056 = 0.5859

Remark: The formula for the standard normal density function,
2 /
2
2
1
x
e

t
, can be
found in the Normal Table distributed to students.
47

19. Consider a forward start option which, 1 year from today, will give its owner a
1-year European call option with a strike price equal to the stock price at that time.

You are given:
(i) The European call option is on a stock that pays no dividends.
(ii) The stocks volatility is 30%.
(iii) The forward price for delivery of 1 share of the stock 1 year from today is
100.
(iv) The continuously compounded risk-free interest rate is 8%.

Under the Black-Scholes framework, determine the price today of the forward start
option.

(A) 11.90

(B) 13.10

(C) 14.50

(D) 15.70

(E) 16.80
48

This problem is based on Exercise 14.21 on page 465 of McDonald (2006).

Let S
1
denote the stock price at the end of one year. Apply the Black-Scholes formula to
calculate the price of the at-the-money call one year from today, conditioning on S
1
.

d
1
= [ln (S
1
/S
1
) + (r +
2
/2)T]/( T o ) = (r + o
2
/2)/ o = 0.417, which turns out to be
independent of S
1
.

d
2
= d
1
T o = d
1
o = 0.117

The value of the forward start option at time 1 is
C(S
1
) = S
1
N(d
1
) S
1
e
r
N(d
2
)
= S
1
[N(0.417) e
0.08
N(0.117)]
~ S
1
[N(0.42) e
0.08
N(0.12)]
= S
1
[0.6628 e
-0.08
0.5438]
= 0.157S
1
.
(Note that, when viewed from time 0, S
1
is a random variable.)

Thus, the time-0 price of the forward start option must be 0.157 multiplied by the time-0
price of a security that gives S
1
as payoff at time 1, i.e., multiplied by the prepaid forward
price ) (
1 , 0
S F
P
. Hence, the time-0 price of the forward start option is
0.157 ) (
1 , 0
S F
P
= 0.157e
0.08
) (
1 , 0
S F = 0.157e
0.08
100 = 14.5

Remark: A key to pricing the forward start option is that d
1
and d
2
turn out to be
independent of the stock price. This is the case if the strike price of the call option will
be set as a fixed percentage of the stock price at the issue date of the call option.
49

20. Assume the Black-Scholes framework. Consider a stock, and a European call
option and a European put option on the stock. The current stock price, call price,
and put price are 45.00, 4.45, and 1.90, respectively.

Investor A purchases two calls and one put. Investor B purchases two calls and
writes three puts.

The current elasticity of Investor As portfolio is 5.0. The current delta of Investor
Bs portfolio is 3.4.

Calculate the current put-option elasticity.

(A) 0.55
(B) 1.15
(C) 8.64
(D) 13.03
(E) 27.24

50

Applying the formula
A
portfolio
=
S c
c
portfolio value
to Investor Bs portfolio yields
3.4 = 2A
C
3A
P
. (1)

Applying the elasticity formula

O
portfolio
=
S ln c
c
ln[portfolio value] =
value portfolio
S

S c
c
portfolio value
to Investor As portfolio yields
5.0 =
P C
S
+ 2
(2A
C
+ A
P
) =
9 . 1 9 . 8
45
+
(2A
C
+ A
P
),
or

1.2 = 2A
C
+ A
P
. (2)

Now, (2) (1) 2.2 = 4A
P
.
Hence, time-0 put option elasticity = O
P
=
P
S
A
P
=
4
2 . 2
9 . 1
45
= 13.03, which is
(D).

Remarks:
(i) If the stock pays no dividends, and if the European call and put options have the
same expiration date and strike price, then A
C
A
P
= 1. In this problem, the put
and call do not have the same expiration date and strike price; so this relationship
does not hold.

(ii) If your copy of McDonald (2006) was printed before 2008, then you need to replace
the last paragraph of Section 12.3 on page 395 by
http://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/mcdonald/htm/erratum395.pdf
The n
i
in the new paragraph corresponds to the e
i
on page 389.

(iii) The statement on page 395 in McDonald (2006) that [t]he elasticity of a portfolio
is the weighted average of the elasticities of the portfolio components may remind
students, who are familiar with fixed income mathematics, the concept of duration.
Formula (3.5.8) on page 101 of Financial Economics: With Applications to
Investments, Insurance and Pensions (edited by H.H. Panjer and published by The
Actuarial Foundation in 1998) shows that the so-called Macaulay duration is an
elasticity.

(iv) In the Black-Scholes framework, the hedge ratio or delta of a portfolio is the partial
derivative of the portfolio price with respect to the stock price. In other continuous-
time frameworks (which are not in the syllabus of Exam MFE/3F), the hedge ratio
may not be given by a partial derivative; for an example, see formula (10.5.7) on
page 478 of Financial Economics: With Applications to Investments, Insurance and
Pensions.
51

21. The Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest-rate model has the short-rate process:

d ( ) [ ( )]d ( ) d ( ) r t a b r t t r t Z t o = + ,
where {Z(t)} is a standard Brownian motion.

For t s T, let ( , , ) P r t T be the price at time t of a zero-coupon bond that pays \$1 at
time T, if the short-rate at time t is r. The price of each zero-coupon bond in the
CIR model follows an It process:

d [ ( ), , ]
[ ( ), , ]d [ ( ), , ]d ( )
[ ( ), , ]
P r t t T
r t t T t q r t t T Z t
P r t t T
o = , . t T s

You are given o(0.05, 7, 9) = 0.06.

Calculate o(0.04, 11, 13).

(A) 0.042

(B) 0.045

(C) 0.048

(D) 0.050

(E) 0.052
52

As pointed out on pages 782 and 783 of McDonald (2006), the condition of no riskless
arbitrages implies that the Sharpe ratio does not depend on T,
( , , )
( , ).
( , , )
r t T r
r t
q r t T
o
|

= (24.17)
(Also see Section 20.4.) This result may not seem applicable because we are given an o
for t = 7 while asked to find an o for t = 11.

Now, equation (24.12) in McDonald (2006) is
( , , ) ( ) ( , , ) / ( , , ) ( ) ln[ ( , , )],
r
q r t T r P r t T P r t T r P r t T
r
o o
c
= =
c

the substitution of which in (24.17) yields
( , , ) ( , ) ( ) ln[ ( , , )] r t T r r t r P r t T
r
o | o
c
=
c
.
In the CIR model (McDonald 2006, p. 787), ( ) r r o o = , ( , ) r t r
|
|
o
= with | being
a constant, and ln[ ( , , )] ( , ). P r t T B t T
r
c
=
c
Thus,
( , , ) r t T r o = ( , ) ( ) ln[ ( , , )] r t r P r t T
r
| o
c

c

= r
|
o
r o [ ( , )] B t T
= ( , ) rB t T | ,
or
( , , )
1 ( , )
r t T
B t T
r
o
| = + .
Because ( , ) B t T depends on t and T through the difference , T t we have, for
1 1 2 2
, T t T t =

1 1 1 2 2 2
1 2
( , , ) ( , , )
.
r t T r t T
r r
o o
=
Hence,

0.04
(0.04, 11, 13) (0.05, 7, 9) 0.8 0.06 0.048.
0.05
o o = = =

Remarks: (i) In earlier printings of McDonald (2006), the minus sign in (24.1) was
given as a plus sign. Hence, there was no minus sign in (24.12) and | would be a
negative constant. However, these changes would not affect the answer to this question.
(ii) What McDonald calls Brownian motion is usually called standard Brownian motion
by other authors.
53

22. You are given:

(i) The true stochastic process of the short-rate is given by
| | d ( ) 0.09 0.5 ( ) d 0.3d ( ) r t r t t Z t = + ,
where {Z(t)} is a standard Brownian motion under the true probability
measure.

(ii) The risk-neutral process of the short-rate is given by
| | d ( ) 0.15 0.5 ( ) d ( ( ))d ( ) r t r t t r t Z t o = +

,
where )} (
~
{ t Z is a standard Brownian motion under the risk-neutral
probability measure.

(iii) g(r, t) denotes the price of an interest-rate derivative at time t, if the short-
rate at that time is r. The interest-rate derivative does not pay any
dividend or interest.

(iv) g(r(t), t) satisfies
dg(r(t), t) = (r(t), g(r(t), t))dt 0.4g(r(t), t)dZ(t).
Determine (r, g).

(A) (r 0.09)g

(B) (r 0.08)g

(C) (r 0.03)g

(D) (r + 0.08)g

(E) (r + 0.09)g

54

Formula (24.2) of McDonald (2006),
dr(t) = a(r(t)) dt + o(r(t)) dZ(t),
is the stochastic differential equation for r(t) under the true probability measure, while
formula (24.19),
,
is the stochastic differential equation for r(t) under the risk-neutral probability measure,
where |(r, t) is the Sharpe ratio. Hence,
o(r) = 0.3,
and
0.15 0.5r = a(r) + o(r)|(r, t)
= [0.09 0.5r| + o(r)|(r, t)
= [0.09 0.5r] + 0.3|(r, t).
Thus, |(r, t) = 0.2.

Now, for the model to be arbitrage free, the Sharpe ratio of the interest-rate derivative
should also be given by |(r, t). Rewriting (iv) as
d ( ( ), ) ( ( ), ( ( ), ))
d 0.4d ( )
( ( ), ) ( ( ), )
g r t t r t g r t t
t Z t
g r t t g r t t
= [cf. equation (24.13)]
and because there are no dividend or interest payments, we have

4 . 0
) , (
)) , ( , (
r
t r g
t r g r

## = |(r, t) [cf. equation (24.17)]

= 0.2.
Thus,
(r, g) = (r + 0.08)g.

Remark: d ( ) d ( ) ( ( ), )d Z t Z t r t t t = |

## . This should be compared with the formula on

page 662:
d ( ) d ( ) d d ( ) d
r
Z t Z t t Z t t
o
= + q = +
o

.
Note that the signs in front of the Sharpe ratios are different. The minus sign in front of
|(r(t), t)) is due the minus sign in front of q(r(t), t)) in (24.1). [If your copy of McDonald
(2006) has a plus sign in (24.1), then you have an earlier printing of the book.]

| | d ( ) ( ( )) ( ( )) ( ( ), ) d ( ( ))d ( ) r t a r t r t r t t t r t Z t o | o = + +

55

23. Consider a European call option on a nondividend-paying stock with exercise date
T, T > 0. Let S(t) be the price of one share of the stock at time t, t > 0. For
0 , t T s s

let C(s, t) be the price of one unit of the call option at time t, if the stock
price is s at that time. You are given:

(i)
d ( )
0.1d d ( )
( )
S t
t Z t
S t
o = + , where o is a positive constant and {Z(t)} is a
Brownian motion.

(ii)

(iii) C(S(0), 0) = 6.

(iv) At time t = 0, the cost of shares required to delta-hedge one unit of the call
option is 9.

(v) The continuously compounded risk-free interest rate is 4%.

Determine (S(0), 0).

(A) 0.10

(B) 0.12

(C) 0.13

(D) 0.15

(E) 0.16

d ( ( ), )
( ( ), )d ( ( ), )d ( ), 0
( ( ), )
C
C S t t
S t t t S t t Z t t T
C S t t
o = + s s
56

Equation (21.22) of McDonald (2006) is

option
( )
S
SV
r r
V
o o = ,
which, for this problem, translates to

( ) ( ( ), )
( ( ), ) 0.04 (0.1 0.04).
( ( ), )
S t S t t
S t t
C S t t

A
=

Because

(0) ( (0), 0) 9
1.5
( (0), 0) 6
S S
C S
A
= = ,
we have
(S(0), 0) = 0.04 + 1.5 (0.1 0.04) = 0.13
(which is the time-0 continuously compounded expected rate of return on the option).

Remark: Equation (21.20) on page 687 of McDonald (2006) should be the same as
(12.9) on page 393,
o
option
= |O| o,
and (21.21) should be changed to

o
o r
= sign(O)
option
option
o
o r
.
Note that O, o
option
, and o
option
are functions of t.
57

24. Consider the stochastic differential equation:
dX(t) = [o X(t)]dt + o dZ(t), t 0,
where , o and o are positive constants, and {Z(t)} is a standard Brownian motion.
The value of X(0) is known.

Find a solution.

(A) X(t) = X(0) e
t
+ o(1 e
t
)
(B) X(t) = X(0) +
}
o
t
s
0
d

+
}
o
t
s Z
0
) ( d

(C) X(t) = X(0) +
}
o
t
s s X
0
d ) (

+
}
o
t
s Z s X
0
) ( d ) (
(D) X(t) = X(0) + o(e
t
1) + ) ( d
0
s Z e
t
s
}

o
(E) X(t) = X(0) e
t
+ o(1 e
t
) +
}

o
t
s t
s Z e
0
) (
) ( d
58

The given stochastic differential equation is (20.9) in McDonald (2006).
Rewrite the equation as
dX(t) + X(t)dt = odt + o dZ(t).
If this were an ordinary differential equation, we would solve it by the method of
integrating factors. (Students of life contingencies have seen the method of integrating
factors in Exercise 4.22 on page 129 and Exercise 5.5 on page 158 of Actuarial
Mathematics, 2
nd
edition.) Let us give this a try. Multiply the equation by the integrating
factor e
t
, we have
e
t
dX(t) + e
t
X(t)dt = e
t
odt + e
t
o

dZ(t). (*)
We hope that the left-hand side is exactly d[e
t
X(t)]. To check this, consider f(x, t) = e
t
x,
whose relevant derivatives are f
x
(x, t) = e
t
, f
xx
(x, t) = 0, and f
t
(x, t) = e
t
x. By Its
Lemma,
df(X(t), t) = e
t
dX(t) + 0 + e
t
X(t)dt,
which is indeed the left-hand side of (*). Now, (*) can be written as
d[e
s
X(s)] = oe
s
ds + oe
s
dZ(s).
Integrating both sides from s = 0 to s = t, we have
) ( d ) 1 ( ) ( d d ) 0 ( ) (
0 0 0
0
s Z e e s Z e s e X e t X e
t
s t
t
s
t
s t
} } }

o + o = o + o = ,
or
e
t
X(t) = X(0) + o(e
t
1) + ) ( d
0
s Z e
t
s
}

o .
Multiplying both sides by e
t
and rearranging yields
X(t) = X(0)e
t
+ o(1 e
t
) +

) ( d
0
s Z e e
t
s t
}

o

= X(0)e
t
+ o(1 e
t
) + ) ( d
0
) (
s Z e
t
s t
}

o ,

which is (E).

59

Remarks: This question is the same as Exercise 20.9 on page 674. In the above, the
solution is derived by solving the stochastic differential equation, while in Exercise 20.9,
you are asked to use Its Lemma to verify that (E) satisfies the stochastic differential
equation.

If t = 0, then the right-hand side of (E) is X(0).

If t > 0, we differentiate (E). The first and second terms on the right-hand side are not
random and have derivatives X(0)e
t
and oe
t
, respectively. To differentiate the
stochastic integral in (E), we write
) ( d
0
) (
s Z e
t
s t
}

= ) ( d
0
s Z e e
t
s t
}

,
which is a product of a deterministic factor and a stochastic factor. Then,
). ( d d ) ( d
)] ( d [ ) ( d ) d (
) ( d d ) ( d ) d ( ) ( d d
0
0
0 0 0
t Z t s Z e e
t Z e e s Z e e
s Z e e s Z e e s Z e e
t
s t
t t
t
s t
t
s t
t
s t
t
s t
+
|
.
|

\
|
=
+ =
+ =
|
.
|

\
|
}
}
} } }

Thus,
), ( d d ] ) ( [
) ( d d d )] 1 ( ) ( [
) ( d d d ) ( d ) 0 (
) ( d d ) ( d d d ) 0 ( ) ( d
0
0
t Z t t X
t Z t e t e t X
t Z t e t s Z e e e X
t Z t s Z e e t e t e X t X
t t
t
t
s t t
t
s t t t
o o
o o o
o o o
o o o

+ =
+ + =
+ +
(

+ =
+ |
.
|

\
|
+ =

}
}

which is the same as the given stochastic differential equation.

60

25. Consider a chooser option (also known as an as-you-like-it option) on a
nondividend-paying stock. At time 1, its holder will choose whether it becomes a
European call option or a European put option, each of which will expire at time 3
with a strike price of \$100.

The chooser option price is \$20 at time t = 0.

The stock price is \$95 at time t = 0. Let C(T) denote the price of a European call
option at time t = 0 on the stock expiring at time T, T > 0, with a strike price of
\$100.

You are given:

(i) The risk-free interest rate is 0.

(ii) C(1) = \$4.

Determine C(3).

(A) \$ 9

(B) \$11

(C) \$13

(D) \$15

(E) \$17

61

Let C(S(t), t, T) denote the price at time-t of a European call option on the stock, with
exercise date T and exercise price K = 100. So,
C(T) = C(95, 0, T).
Similarly, let P(S(t), t, T) denote the time-t put option price.

At the choice date t = 1, the value of the chooser option is
Max[C(S(1), 1, 3), P(S(1),1, 3)],
which can expressed as
C(S(1), 1, 3)

+ Max[0, P(S(1),1, 3) C(S(1), 1, 3)]. (1)
Because the stock pays no dividends and the interest rate is zero,
P(S(1),1, 3) C(S(1), 1, 3) = K S(1)
by put-call parity. Thus, the second term of (1) simplifies as

Max[0, K S(1)],
which is the payoff of a European put option. As the time-1 value of the chooser option
is
C(S(1), 1, 3) + Max[0, K S(1)],
its time-0 price must be
C(S(0), 0, 3) + P(S(0), 0, 1),
which, by put-call parity, is

Thus,

C(3) = 20 (4 + 5) = 11.

Remark: The problem is a modification of Exercise 14.20.b.

( (0), 0, 3) [ ( (0), 0, 1) (0)]
(3) [ (1) 100 95] (3) (1) 5.
C S C S K S
C C C C
+ +
= + + = + +
62

26. Consider European and American options on a nondividend-paying stock.
You are given:

(i) All options have the same strike price of 100.

(ii) All options expire in six months.

(iii) The continuously compounded risk-free interest rate is 10%.

You are interested in the graph for the price of an option as a function of the current
stock price. In each of the following four charts IIV, the horizontal axis, S,
represents the current stock price, and the vertical axis, , t represents the price of an
option.

I. II.

III.

IV.

Match the option with the shaded region in which its graph lies. If there are two or
more possibilities, choose the chart with the smallest shaded region.
63

26. Continued

European Call American Call European Put American Put

(A)

I

I

III

III

(B)

II

I

IV

III

(C)

II

I

III

III

(D)

II

II

IV

III

(E)

II

II

IV

IV

64

By (9.9) on page 293 of McDonald (2006), we have
S(0) > C
Am
> C
Eu
> Max[0, ) (
, 0
S F
P
T
PV
0,T
(K)].

Because the stock pays no dividends, the above becomes

S(0) > C
Am
= C
Eu
> Max[0, S(0) PV
0,T
(K)].

Thus, the shaded region in II contains C
Am
and C
Eu
. (The shaded region in I also does,
but it is a larger region.)

By (9.10) on page 294 of McDonald (2006), we have
0, 0,
Max[0, PV ( ) ( )]
P
Am Eu T T
K P P K F S > > >

0,
Max[0, PV ( ) (0)]
T
K S =
because the stock pays no dividends. However, the region bounded above by t = K and
bounded below by t = Max[0, PV
0,T
(K) S] is not given by III or IV.

Because an American option can be exercised immediately, we have a tighter lower
bound for an American put,

P
Am
> Max[0, K S(0)].

Thus,

K > P
Am
> Max[0, K S(0)],

showing that the shaded region in III contains P
Am
.

For a European put, we can use put-call parity and the inequality S(0) > C
Eu
to get a
tighter upper bound,
PV
0,T
(K) > P
Eu
.
Thus,
PV
0,T
(K) > P
Eu
> Max[0, PV
0,T
(K) S(0)],

showing that the shaded region in IV contains P
Eu
.

0.1/ 2 0.05
1
2 0,
; PV ( ) 100 100 95.1229 95.12.
rT
T
T K Ke e e

= = = = = ~
65

Remarks:

(i) It turns out that II and IV can be found on page 156 of Capiski and Zastawniak
(2003) Mathematics for Finance: An Introduction to Financial Engineering,

(ii) The last inequality in (9.9) can be derived as follows. By put-call parity,
C
Eu
= P
Eu
+ ) (
, 0
S F
P
T
e
rT
K

> ) (
, 0
S F
P
T
e
rT
K because P
Eu
> 0.
We also have
C
Eu
> 0.
Thus,
C
Eu
> Max[0, ) (
, 0
S F
P
T
e
rT
K].

(iii) An alternative derivation of the inequality above is to use Jensens Inequality (see,
in particular, page 883).
C
Eu
E* Max(0, ( ) )
rT
e S T K

( =

| | Max(0, E* ( ) )
rT
e S T K

## > because of Jensens Inequality

Max(0, E* ( ) )
rT rT
e S T e K

( =

0,
Max(0, ( ) )
P rT
T
F S e K

= .
Here, E* signifies risk-neutral expectation.

(iv) That C
Eu
= C
Am
for nondividend-paying stocks can be shown by Jensens Inequality.
66

27. You are given the following information about a securities market:

(i) There are two nondividend-paying stocks, X and Y.

(ii) The current prices for X and Y are both \$100.

(iii) The continuously compounded risk-free interest rate is 10%.

(iv) There are three possible outcomes for the prices of X and Y one year from
now:

Outcome X Y
1 \$200 \$0
2 \$50 \$0
3 \$0 \$300

Let
X
C be the price of a European call option on X, and
Y
P be the price of a
European put option on Y. Both options expire in one year and have a strike price
of \$95.

Calculate
Y X
P C .

(A) \$4.30

(B) \$4.45

(C) \$4.59

(D) \$4.75

(E) \$4.94

67

We are given the price information for three securities:

1

B: e
0.1
1

1

200

X: 100 50

0

0

Y: 100 0

300

The problem is to find the price of the following security
10

?? 95

0
The time-1 payoffs come from:
(95 0)
+
(200 95)
+
= 95 105 = 10
(95 0)
+
(50 95)
+
= 95 0 = 95
(95 300)
+
(0 95)
+
= 0 0 = 0

So, this is a linear algebra problem. We can take advantage of the 0s in the time-1
payoffs. By considering linear combinations of securities B and Y, we have

1

0.1
1
3
:
300
Y
B e

1

0

68

We now consider linear combinations of this security, ,
300
Y
B and X. For replicating
the payoff of the put-minus-call security, the number of units of X and the number of
units of
300
Y
B are given by

1
200 1 10
50 1 95

| | | |
| |
\ . \ .
.
Thus, the time-0 price of the put-minus-call security is
1
0.1
1
3
200 1 10
(100, )
50 1 95
e

| | | |

| |
\ . \ .
.
Applying the 2-by-2 matrix inversion formula

1
1
a b d b
c d c a ad bc

| | | |
=
| |

\ . \ .

to the above, we have
0.1
1
3
1 1 10
1
(100, )
50 200 95 200 50
e

| | | |

| |

\ . \ .

105
1
(100, 0.571504085)
19500 150
| |
=
|
\ .

= 4.295531 ~ 4.30.

Remarks:
(i) We have priced the security without knowledge of the real probabilities. This is
analogous to pricing options in the Black-Scholes framework without the need to
know o, the continuously compounded expected return on the stock.
(ii) Matrix calculations can also be used to derive some of the results in Chapter 10 of
McDonald (2006). The price of a security that pays C
u
when the stock price goes
up and pays C
d
when the stock price goes down is

1
( 1)
h rh
u
h rh
d
C uSe e
S
C dSe e
o
o

| | | |
| |
\ . \ .

( ) ( )
1
( 1)
rh rh
u
r h r h h h
d
C e e
S
C uSe dSe dSe uSe
o o o o + +
| | | |
=
| |

\ . \ .

( )
1
( )
( )
u rh h h rh
r h
d
C
e de ue e
C u d e
o o
o +
| |
=
|

\ .

( ) ( )
( )
r h r h
u rh
d
C
e d u e
e
C u d u d
o o

| |
=
|

\ .

( * 1 *)
u rh
d
C
e p p
C

| |
=
|
\ .
.
69

(iii) The concept of state prices is introduced on page 370 of McDonald (2006). A state
price is the price of a security that pays 1 only when a particular state occurs. Let
us denote the three states at time 1 as H, M and L, and the corresponding state prices
as Q
H
, Q
M
and Q
L
.

1

Q
H
0

0

0

Q
M
1

0

0

Q
L
0

1

Then, the answer to the problem is
10Q
H
+ 95Q
M
+ 0Q
L
.

To find the state prices, observe that
0.1
200 50 0 100
0 0 300 100
H M L
H M L
H M L
Q Q Q e
Q Q Q
Q Q Q

+ + =

+ + =

+ + =

Hence,
1
0.1
1 200 0
( ) ( 100 100) 1 50 0 ( 0.4761 0.0953 0.3333)
1 0 300
H M L
Q Q Q e

| |
|
= =
|
|
\ .
.
70

28. Assume the Black-Scholes framework. You are given:

(i) S(t) is the price of a nondividend-paying stock at time t.

(ii) S(0) = 10

(iii) The stocks volatility is 20%.

(iv) The continuously compounded risk-free interest rate is 2%.

At time t = 0, you write a one-year European option that pays 100 if [S(1)]
2

is
greater than 100 and pays nothing otherwise.

Calculate the number of shares of the stock for your hedging program at time t = 0.

(A) 20

(B) 30

(C) 40

(D) 50

(E) 60

71

Note that [S(1)]
2
> 100 is equivalent to S(1) > 10. Thus, the option is a cash-or-nothing
option with strike price 10. The time-0 price of the option is
100 e
rT
N(d
2
).

To find the number of shares in the hedging program, we differentiate the price formula
with respect to S,

2
100 ( )
rT
e N d
S

c
c

=
2
2
100 ( )
rT
d
e N d
S

c
'
c
=
2
1
100 ( )
rT
e N d
S T o

' .

With T = 1, r = 0.02, o = 0, o = 0.2, S = S(0) = 10, K = K
2
= 10, we have d
2
= 0 and

2
1
100 ( )
rT
e N d
S T o

'
0.02
1
100 (0)
2
e N

' =

2
0 / 2
0.02
1
100
2 2
e
e
t

=

0.02
50
2
e
t

=
19.55. =

72

29. The following is a Black-Derman-Toy binomial tree for effective annual interest
rates.

Compute the volatility in year 1 of the 3-year zero-coupon bond generated by the
tree.

(A) 14%

(B) 18%

(C) 22%

(D) 26%

(E) 30%

5%
3%
r
0
r
ud
2%
6%
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2
73

According to formula (24.48) on page 800 in McDonald (2006), the volatility in year 1
of an n-year zero-coupon bond in a Black-Derman-Toy model is the number k such that
y(1, n, r
u
) = y(1, n, r
d
) e
2k
,
where y, the yield to maturity, is defined by
P(1, n, r) =
1
1
1 (1, , )
n
y n r

| |
|
+
\ .
.
Here, n = 3 [and hence k is given by the right-hand side of (24.53)]. To find P(1, 3, r
u
)
and P(1, 3, r
d
), we use the method of backward induction.

P(2, 3, r
uu
) =
1 1
1 1.06
uu
r
=
+
,
P(2, 3, r
dd
) =
1 1
1 1.02
dd
r
=
+
,
P(2, 3, r
du
) =
1 1 1
1 1.03464 1
ud uu dd
r r r
= =
+ +
,
P(1, 3, r
u
) =
1
1
u
r +
[ P(2, 3, r
uu
) + P(2, 3, r
ud
)] = 0.909483,
P(1, 3, r
d
) =
1
1
d
r +
[ P(2, 3, r
ud
) + P(2, 3, r
dd
)] = 0.945102.
Hence,
e
2k
=
(1, 3, )
(1, 3, )
u
d
y r
y r
=
1/ 2
1/ 2
[ (1, 3, )] 1
[ (1, 3, )] 1
u
d
P r
P r

=
0.048583
0.028633
,
resulting in k = 0.264348 ~ 26%.

Remarks: (i) The term year n can be ambiguous. In the Exam MLC/3L textbook
Actuarial Mathematics, it usually means the n-th year, depicting a period of time.
However, in many places in McDonald (2006), it means time n, depicting a particular
instant in time. (ii) It is stated on page 799 of McDonald (2006) that volatility in year 1
is the standard deviation of the natural log of the yield for the bond 1 year hence. This
statement is vague. The concrete interpretation of volatility in year 1 is the right-hand
side of (24.48) on page 800, with h = 1.
P(1, 3, r
u
)
P(1, 3, r
d
)
P(0, 3) P(2, 3, r
ud
)
P(2, 3, r
dd
)
P(2, 3, r
uu
)
74

30. You are given the following market data for zero-coupon bonds with a maturity
payoff of \$100.

Maturity (years) Bond Price (\$) Volatility in Year 1
1 94.34 N/A
2 88.50 10%

A 2-period Black-Derman-Toy interest tree is calibrated using the data from above:

Calculate r
d
, the effective annual rate in year 1 in the down state.

(A) 5.94%

(B) 6.60%

(C) 7.00%

(D) 7.27%

(E) 7.33%
r
u

r
d

r
0

Year 0 Year 1
75

In a BDT interest rate model, the risk-neutral probability of each up move is .

Because the volatility in year 1 of the 2-year zero-coupon bond is 10%, we have

o
1
= 10%.

This can be seen from simplifying the right-hand side of (24.51).

We are given P(0, 1) = 0.9434 and P(0, 2) = 0.8850, and they are related as follows:

P(0, 2) = P(0, 1)[P(1, 2, r
u
) + P(1, 2, r
d
)]
= P(0, 1)
1 1 1 1
2 1 2 1
u d
r r
(
+
(
+ +

= P(0, 1)
0.2
1 1 1 1
21 21
d d
r e r
(
+
(
+ +

.
Thus,

0.2
1 1
1 1
d d
r e r
+
+ +
=
2 0.8850
0.9434

= 1.8762,
or

0.2 0.2 2 0.2
2 (1 ) 1.8762[1 (1 ) ],
d d d
r e r e r e + + = + + +
which is equivalent to

0.2 2 0.2
1.8762 0.8762(1 ) 0.1238 0.
d d
e r e r + + =
The solution set of the quadratic equation is {0.0594, 0.9088}. Hence,

r
d
~ 5.94%.

1
2o
e r r
d u
=
r
d

r
0

Year 0 Year 1
76

31. You compute the current delta for a 50-60 bull spread with the following
information:

(i) The continuously compounded risk-free rate is 5%.

(ii) The underlying stock pays no dividends.

(iii) The current stock price is \$50 per share.

(iv) The stocks volatility is 20%.

(v) The time to expiration is 3 months.

How much does delta change after 1 month, if the stock price does not change?

(A) increases by 0.04

(B) increases by 0.02

(C) does not change, within rounding to 0.01

(D) decreases by 0.02

(E) decreases by 0.04
77

Assume that the bull spread is constructed by buying a 50-strike call and selling a 60-
strike call. (You may also assume that the spread is constructed by buying a 50-strike put
and selling a 60-strike put.)

Delta for the bull spread is equal to

(delta for the 50-strike call) (delta for the 60-strike call).

(You get the same delta value, if put options are used instead of call options.)

Call option delta = N(d
1
), where
T
T r K S
d
o
o )
2
1
( ) / ln(
2
1
+ +
=

50-strike call:
175 . 0
12 / 3 2 . 0
) 12 / 3 )( 2 . 0
2
1
05 . 0 ( ) 50 / 50 ln(
2
1
=
+ +
= d , N(d
1
) ~ N(0.18) = 0.5714

60-strike call:
6482 . 1
12 / 3 2 . 0
) 12 / 3 )( 2 . 0
2
1
05 . 0 ( ) 60 / 50 ln(
2
1
=
+ +
= d , N(d
1
) ~ N(1.65)
= 1 0.9505 = 0.0495
Delta of the bull spread = 0.5714 0.0495 = 0.5219.

After one month, 50-strike call:
1429 . 0
12 / 2 2 . 0
) 12 / 2 )( 2 . 0
2
1
05 . 0 ( ) 50 / 50 ln(
2
1
=
+ +
= d , N(d
1
) ~ N(0.14) = 0.5557

60-strike call:
0901 . 2
12 / 2 2 . 0
) 12 / 2 )( 2 . 0
2
1
05 . 0 ( ) 60 / 50 ln(
2
1
=
+ +
= d , N(d
1
) ~ N(2.09)
= 1 0.9817 = 0.0183

Delta of the bull spread after one month = 0.5557 0.0183 = 0.5374.

The change in delta = 0.5374 0.5219 = 0.0155 ~ 0.02.

78

32. At time t = 0, Jane invests the amount of W(0) in a mutual fund. The mutual fund
employs a proportional investment strategy: There is a fixed real number , such
that, at every point of time, 100% of the funds assets are invested in a
nondividend paying stock and 100(1 )% in a risk-free asset.

You are given:
(i) The continuously compounded rate of return on the risk-free asset is r.
(ii) The price of the stock, S(t), follows a geometric Brownian motion,

d ( )
( )
S t
S t
= o dt + o dZ(t), t > 0,
where {Z(t)} is a standard Brownian motion.

Let W(t) denote the Janes fund value at time t, t > 0.

Which of the following equations is true?

(A)

d ( )
( )
W t
W t

= [o + (1 )r]dt + odZ(t)
(B) W(t) = W(0)exp{[o + (1 )r]t + oZ(t)}
(C) W(t) = W(0)exp{[o + (1 )r o
2
]t + oZ(t)}
(D) W(t) = W(0)[S(t)/S(0)]

e
(1 )rt

(E) W(t) = W(0)[S(t)/S(0)]

exp[(1 )(r + o
2
)t]
79

A proportional investment strategy means that the mutual funds portfolio is continuously
re-balanced. There is an implicit assumption that there are no transaction costs.

At each point of time t, the instantaneous rate of return of the mutual fund is

d ( )
( )
W t
W t

=
d ( )
( )
S t
S t
+ (1 )rdt
= [odt + odZ(t)] + (1 )rdt
= [o + (1 )r]dt + odZ(t). (1)

We know
S(t) = S(0)exp[(o o
2
)t + oZ(t)]. (2)
The solution to (1) is similar,
W(t) = W(0)exp{[o + (1 )r (o)
2
]t + oZ(t)}. (3)

Raising equation (2) to power and applying it to (3) yields
W(t) = W(0)[S(t)/S(0)]

exp{[(1 )r (o)
2
+ o
2
]t}
= W(0)[S(t)/S(0)]

exp[(1 )(r + o
2
)t], (4)
which is (E).

Remarks:
(i) There is no restriction that the proportionality constant is to be between 0 and 1. If
< 0, the mutual fund shorts the stock; if > 1, the mutual fund borrows money to
buy more shares of the stock.

(ii) If the stock pays dividends continuously, with amount oS(t)dt between time t and time
t+dt, then we have equation (20.25) of McDonald (2006),
d ( )
( )
S t
S t
= (o o)dt + o dZ(t),
whose solution is
S(t) = S(0)exp[(o o o
2
)t + oZ(t)]. (5)
Since

d ( )
( )
W t
W t
=
d ( )
( )
S t
S t
o
(
+
(

dt + (1 )rdt
= [o + (1 )r]dt + odZ(t),
formula (3) remains valid. Raising equation (5) to power and applying it to (3)
yields
W(t) = W(0)[S(t)/S(0)]

exp{[(1 )r (o)
2
+ o + o
2
)]t}
= W(0)[S(t)/S(0)]

exp{[o + (1 )(r + o
2
)]t}. (6)

80

Note that as in (4), Z(t) and o do not appear explicitly in (6). As a check for the
validity of (6), let us verify that

0,
P
t
F [W(t)] = W(0). (7)
Since

0,
P
t
F [W(t)] = W(0)S(0)

exp{[o + (1 )(r + o
2
)]t}
0,
P
t
F [S(t)

],
equation (7) immediately follows from (20.30) of McDonald (2006).

(iii)It follows from (6) that
W(t) = W(0)[S(t)/S(0)]

if and only if is a solution of the quadratic equation
o + (1 )(r + o
2
) = 0. (8)
The solutions of (8) are = h
1
> 1 and = h
2
< 0 as defined in Section 12.6. Section
12.6 is not currently in the syllabus of Exam MFE/3F.

(iv) Another way to write (6) is
W(t) = W(0)[e
ot
S(t)/S(0)]

[e
rt
]
(1)
exp[(1 )o
2
t].

81

33. You own one share of a nondividend-paying stock. Because you worry that its
price may drop over the next year, you decide to employ a rolling insurance
strategy, which entails obtaining one 3-month European put option on the stock
every three months, with the first one being bought immediately.

You are given:
(i) The continuously compounded risk-free interest rate is 8%.
(ii) The stocks volatility is 30%.
(iii) The current stock price is 45.
(iv) The strike price for each option is 90% of the then-current stock price.

Your broker will sell you the four options but will charge you for their total cost
now.

Under the Black-Scholes framework, how much do you now pay your broker?

(A) 1.59

(B) 2.24

(C) 2.85

(D) 3.48

(E) 3.61

82

The problem is a variation of Exercise 14.22, whose solution uses the concept of the
forward start option in Exercise 14.21.

Let us first calculate the current price of a 3-month European put with strike price being
90% of the current stock price S.
With K = 0.9S, r = 0.08, o = 0.3, and T = , we have
d
1
=
2
ln( / 0.9 ) ( ) ln(0.9) (0.08 0.09)
0.9107
0.3
S S r T
T
+ + o + +
= =
o

d
2
= d
1
T o = d
1
0.3 = 0.7607
N(d
1
) ~ N(0.91) = 1 N(0.91) = 1 0.8186 = 0.1814
N(d
2
) ~ N(0.76) = 1 N(0.76) = 1 0.7764 = 0.2236

Put price = Ke
rT
N(d
2
) SN(d
1
) = 0.9Se
0.08 0.25
0.2236 S0.1814 = 0.0159S

For the rolling insurance strategy, four put options are needed. Their costs are
0.0159S(0) at time 0, 0.0159S() at time , 0.0159S() at time , and 0.0159S() at
time . Their total price at time 0 is the sum of their prepaid forward prices.

Since the stock pays no dividends, we have
, for all T > 0.
Hence, the sum of the four prepaid forward prices is
0.0159S(0) 4 = 0.0159 45 4 = 2.85.

0,
( ( )) (0)
P
T
F S T S =
83

34. The cubic variation of the standard Brownian motion for the time interval [0, T] is
defined analogously to the quadratic variation as
3
1
lim { [ ] [( 1) ]}
n
n
j
Z jh Z j h

,
where h = T/n.

What is the distribution of the cubic variation?

(A) N(0, 0)
(B) N(0, T
1/2
)
(C) N(0, T)
(D) N(0, T
3/2
)
(E) N( / 2 T , T)
84

It is stated on page 653 of McDonald (2006) that higher-order [than quadratic]
variations are zero.

Let us change the last formula on page 652 by using an exponent of 3:

Taking absolute value, we have

Thus,

Alternative argument:
.
Now,
3
[d ( )] Z t =
2
[d ( )] Z t dZ(t)
= dt dZ(t) (20.17c)
= 0 (20.17a)
Hence,

3
0 0
[d ( )] 0 0.
T T
Z t = =
} }

3
1
3
1
3/ 2 3
1
3/ 2 3
1
lim { [ ] [( 1) ]}
lim ( )
lim
lim ( / ) ( 1) .
n
n
j
n
jh
n
j
n
jh
n
j
n
n
j
Z jh Z j h
hY
h Y
T n

=

=
=
=

3/ 2
3/ 2 3 3/ 2 3 3/ 2
1/ 2
1 1 1
( / ) ( 1) ( / ) ( 1) ( / ) .
n n n
j j j
T
T n T n T n
n
= = =
s = =

3
1
lim { [ ] [( 1) ]} 0.
n
n
j
Z jh Z j h

=
=

3 3
0
1
lim { [ ] [( 1) ]} [d ( )]
n
T
n
j
Z jh Z j h Z t

=
=

}
85

35. The stochastic process {R(t)} is given by

where {Z(t)} is a standard Brownian motion.

Define X(t) = [R(t)]
2
.

Find dX(t).

(A) | |
3
4
0.1 ( ) 2 ( ) d 0.2 ( ) d ( ) X t X t t X t Z t
(
+

(B) | |
3
4
0.11 ( ) 2 ( ) d 0.2 ( ) d ( ) X t X t t X t Z t
(
+

(C) | |
3
4
0.12 ( ) 2 ( ) d 0.2 ( ) d ( ) X t X t t X t X t
(
+

(D)
{ }
3
4
0.01 [0.1 2 (0)] ( )d 0.2[ ( )] d ( )
t
R e X t t X t Z t

+ +

(E)
| |
3
4
0.1 2 (0) ( )d 0.2[ ( )] d ( )
t
R e X t t X t Z t

+

0
( ) (0) 0.05(1 ) 0.1 ( )d ( ),
t
t t s t
R t R e e e R s Z s

= + +
}
86

By Its lemma, dX(t) = 2R(t)dR(t) + [dR(t)]
2
.

To find dR(t), write the integral
0
( )d ( )
t
s t
e R s Z s

}
as .

Then,

(The above shows that R(t) can be interpreted as a C-I-R short-rate.)

Thus,
[dR(t)]
2
=
2
] ) ( 1 . 0 [ t R dt = 0.01R(t)dt,
and
2 3/ 2
3/ 4
d ( ) 2 ( ){[0.05 ( )]d 0.1 ( )d ( )} 0.01 ( )d
{0.11 ( ) 2[ ( )] }d 0.2[ ( )] d ( )
0.11 ( ) 2 ( ) d 0.2[ ( )] d ( ).
X t R t R t t R t Z t R t t
R t R t t R t Z t
X t X t t X t Z t
= + +
= +
(
= +

Remark: This question is a version of Exercise 20.9 (McDonald 2006, p. 675).
0
( )d ( )
t
t s
e e R s Z s

}
0
d ( ) (0) d 0.05 d 0.1 d ( )d ( ) 0.1 ( )d ( )
(0) d 0.05 d [ ( ) (0) 0.05(1 )]d 0.1 ( )d ( )
[0.05 ( )]d 0.1 ( )d ( ).
t
t t t s t t
t t t t
R t R e t e t e t e R s Z s e e R t Z t
R e t e t R t R e e t R t Z t
R t t R t Z t

= + +
= + +
= +
}
87

36. Assume the Black-Scholes framework. Consider a derivative security of a stock.
You are given:

(i) The continuously compounded risk-free interest rate is 0.04.

(ii) The volatility of the stock is o.

(iii) The stock does not pay dividends.

(iv) The derivative security also does not pay dividends.

(v) S(t) denotes the time-t price of the stock.

(iv) The time-t price of the derivative security is
2
/
)] ( [
o k
t S

, where k is a positive
constant.

Find k.

(A) 0.04
(B) 0.05
(C) 0.06
(D) 0.07
(E) 0.08

88

We are given that the time-t price of the derivative security is of the form
V[S(t), t] = [S(t)]
a
,
where a is a negative constant.

The function V must satisfy the Black-Scholes partial differential equation (21.11)
rV
s
V
S
s
V
S r
t
V
=
c
c
+
c
c
+
c
c
2
2
2 2
2
1
) ( o .
Here, o = 0 because the stock does not pay dividends.

Because V(s, t) =
a
s , we have V
t
= 0, V
s
=
1 a
as

, V
ss
=
2
( 1)
a
a a s

. Thus,
( ) ( )
1 2 2 2
1
0 ( 0) ( 1)
2
a a a
r S aS S a a S rS

+ + o = ,
or

2
1
( 1)
2
ra a a r + o = ,
which is a quadratic equation of a. One obvious solution is a = 1 (which is not negative).
The other solutions is
a =
2
2
o
r
.
Consequently, k = 2r = 2(0.04) = 0.08.

Alternative Solution:
Let V[S(t), t] denote the time-t price of a derivative security that does not pay dividends.
Then, for t T,
V[S(t), t] =
,
( [ ( ), ])
P
t T
F V S T T .
In particular,
V[S(0), 0] =
0,
( [ ( ), ])
P
T
F V S T T .
We are given that V[S(t), t] = [ ( )]
a
S t , where a = k/o
2
. Thus, the equation above is
[ (0)]
a
S =
0,
([ ( )] )
P a
T
F S T
= e
rT
[ (0)]
a
S exp{[a(r o) + a(a 1)o
2
]T}
by (20.30). Hence we have the following quadratic equation for a:
r + a(r o) + a(a 1)o
2
= 0.
whose solutions, with o = 0, are a = 1 and a = 2r/o
2
.
89

Remarks:

(i) If o > 0, the solutions of the quadratic equation are a = h
1
> 1 and a = h
2
< 0 as
defined in Section 12.6 of McDonald (2006). Section 12.6 is not currently in the
syllabus of Exam MFE/3F.

(ii) For those who know martingale theory, the alternative solution above is equivalent
to seeking a such that, under the risk-neutral probability measure, the stochastic
process {e
rt
[S(t)]
a
; t 0} is a martingale.

(iii) If the derivative security pays dividends, then its price, V, does not satisfy the
partial differential equation (21.11). If the dividend payment between time t and
time t + dt is I(t)dt, then the Black-Scholes equation (21.31) on page 691 will need
to be modified as
E
t
-
[dV + I(t)dt] = V (rdt).

90

37. The price of a stock is governed by the stochastic differential equation:

where {Z(t)} is a standard Brownian motion. Consider the geometric average
.

Find the variance of ln[G].

(A) 0.03
(B) 0.04
(C) 0.05
(D) 0.06
(E) 0.07

d ( )
0.03d 0.2d ( ),
( )
S t
t Z t
S t
= +
3 / 1
)] 3 ( ) 2 ( ) 1 ( [ S S S G =
91

We are to find the variance of
ln G =
1
3
[ln S(1) + ln S(2) + ln S(3)].
If
t 0,
then it follows from equation (20.29) (with o = 0) that
ln S(t) = ln S(0) +
2
( )t o + o Z(t), t 0.
Hence,
Var[ln G] =
2
1
3
Var[ln S(1) + ln S(2) + ln S(3)]
=
2
9
o
Var[Z(1) + Z(2) + Z(3)].
Although Z(1), Z(2), and Z(3) are not uncorrelated random variables, the increments,
Z(1) Z(0), Z(2) Z(1), and Z(3) Z(2), are independent N(0, 1) random variables
(McDonald 2006, page 650). Put
Z
1
= Z(1) Z(0) = Z(1) because Z(0) = 0,
Z
2
= Z(2) Z(1),
and
Z
3
= Z(3) Z(2).
Then,
Z(1) + Z(2) + Z(3) = 3Z
1
+ 2Z
2
+ 1Z
3
.
Thus,
Var[ln G] =
2
9
o
[Var(3Z
1
) + Var(2Z
2
) + Var(Z
3
)]
= ] 1 2 3 [
9
2 2 2
2
+ +
o
= ~ 0.06.

Remarks:
(i) Consider the more general geometric average which uses N equally spaced stock
prices from 0 to T, with the first price observation at time T/N,
G =
1/
1
( / )
N
N
j
S jT N
=
(

[
.
Then,
Var[ln G] =
2
2
1 1
1
Var ln ( / ) Var ( / )
N N
j j
S jT N Z jT N
N N
o
= =
( (
=
( (

.

With the definition
Z
j
= Z(jT/N) Z((j1)T/N), j = 1, 2, ... , N,
we have
d ( )
d d ( ),
( )
S t
t Z t
S t
= + o
2 2
14 14 (0.2)
0.06222
9 9

= =
o
92

1 1
( / ) ( 1 ) .
N N
j
j j
Z jT N N j Z
= =
= +

Because {Z
j
} are independent N(0, T/N) random variables, we obtain
Var[ln G]
2
2
2
1
( 1 ) Var[ ]
N
j
j
N j Z
N
o
=
= +

2
2
2
1
2
2
2
2
( 1 )
( 1)(2 1)
6
( 1)(2 1)
,
6
N
j
T
N j
N N
N N N T
N N
N N T
N
o
o
o
=
= +
+ +
=
+ +
=

which can be checked using formula (14.19) on page 466.

(ii) Since
1
1
ln ln ( / )
N
j
G S jT N
N
=
=

is a normal random variable, the random variable G is
a lognormal random variable. The mean of ln G can be similarly derived. In fact,
McDonald (2006, page 466) wrote: Deriving these results is easier than you might
guess.

(iii)As N tends to infinity, G becomes

0
1
exp ln ( ) d
T
S
T
(
t t
(

}
.
The integral of a Brownian motion, called an integrated Brownian motion, is treated
in textbooks on stochastic processes.

(iv) The determination of the distribution of an arithmetic average (the above is about the
distribution of a geometric average) is a very difficult problem. See footnote 3 on
page 446 of McDonald (2006) and also #56 in this set of sample questions.
93

38. For t s T, let P(t, T, r ) be the price at time t of a zero-coupon bond that pays \$1 at
time T, if the short-rate at time t is r.

You are given:

(i) P(t, T, r) = A(t, T)exp[B(t, T)r] for some functions A(t, T) and B(t, T).

(ii) B(0, 3) = 2.

Based on P(0, 3, 0.05), you use the delta-gamma approximation to estimate
P(0, 3, 0.03), and denote the value as P
Est
(0, 3, 0.03)

Find
(0, 3, 0.03)
(0, 3, 0.05)
Est
P
P
.

(A) 1.0240
(B) 1.0408
(C) 1.0416
(D) 1.0480
(E) 1.0560
94

The term delta-gamma approximations for bonds can be found on page 784 of
McDonald (2006).

By Taylor series,
P(t, T, r
0
+ c) ~ P(t, T, r
0
) +
1
1!
P
r
(t, T, r
0
)c +
1
2!
P
rr
(t, T, r
0
)c
2
+ ,
where
P
r
(t, T, r) = A(t, T)B(t, T)e
B(t, T)r
= B(t, T)P(t, T, r)
and
P
rr
(t, T, r) = B(t, T)P
r
(t, T, r) = [B(t, T)]
2
P(t, T, r).
Thus,

0
0
( , , )
( , , )
P t T r
P t T r
c +
~ 1 B(t, T)c + [B(t, T)c]
2
+
and

(0, 3, 0.03)
(0, 3, 0.05)
Est
P
P
= 1 (2 0.02) + (2 0.02)
2

= 1.0408

95

39. A discrete-time model is used to model both the price of a nondividend-paying
stock and the short-term (risk-free) interest rate. Each period is one year.

At time 0, the stock price is S
0
= 100 and the effective annual interest rate is
r
0
= 5%.

At time 1, there are only two states of the world, denoted by u and d. The stock
prices are S
u
= 110 and S
d
= 95. The effective annual interest rates are r
u
= 6% and
r
d
= 4%.

Let C(K) be the price of a 2-year K-strike European call option on the stock.
Let P(K) be the price of a 2-year K-strike European put option on the stock.

Determine P(108) C(108).

(A) 2.85
(B) 2.34
(C) 2.11
(D) 1.95
(E) 1.08

96

We are given that the securities model is a discrete-time model, with each period being
one year. Even though there are only two states of the world at time 1, we cannot assume
that the model is binomial after time 1. However, the difference, P(K) C(K), suggests
put-call parity.

From the identity
x
+
(x)
+
= x,
we have
[K S(T)]
+
[S(T) K]
+
= K S(T),
which yields
P(K) C(K) =
0,2
( )
P
F K
0,2
( )
P
F S
= PV
0,2
(K) S(0)
= KP(0, 2) S(0).

Thus, the problem is to find P(0, 2), the price of the 2-year zero-coupon bond:
P(0, 2) =
0
1
1 r +
| | * (1, 2, ) (1 *) (1, 2, ) p P u p P d +
0
1 * 1 *
=
1 1 1
u d
p p
r r r
(
+
(
+ + +

.

To find the risk-neutral probability p*, we use
S
0
=
0
1
1 r +

or
100 =
1
1.05
| | * 110 (1 *) 95 p p + .
This yields p* = , with which we obtain
P(0, 2)
1 2/ 3 1/ 3
=
1.05 1.06 1.04
(
+
(

= 0.904232.
Hence,
P(108) C(108) = 108 0.904232 100 = 2.34294.

| | * (1 *)
u d
p S p S +
105 95 2
110 95 3

97

40. The following four charts are profit diagrams for four option strategies: Bull
purchase or sale of two 1-year European options.
Portfolio I
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Stock Price
P
r
o
f
i
t
One Year
Six Months
Three Months
Expiration
Portfolio II
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Stock Price
P
r
o
f
i
t
One Year
Six Months
Three Months
Expiration
Portfolio III
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Stock Price
P
r
o
f
i
t
One Year
Six Months
Three Months
Expiration
Portfolio IV
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Stock Price
P
r
o
f
i
t
One Year
Six Months
Three Months
Expiration

Match the charts with the option strategies.

(A) I II III IV
(B) I III II IV
(C) III IV I II
(D) IV II III I
(E) IV III II I

98

Profit diagrams are discussed Section 12.4 of McDonald (2006). Definitions of the
option strategies can be found in the Glossary near the end of the textbook. See also
Figure 3.17 on page 87.

The payoff function of a straddle is
t(s) = (K s)
+
+ (s K)
+
= |s K| .

The payoff function of a strangle is
t(s) = (K
1
s)
+
+ (s K
2
)
+

where K
1
< K
2
.

The payoff function of a collar is
t(s) = (K
1
s)
+
(s K
2
)
+

where K
1
< K
2
.

The payoff function of a bull spread is
t(s) =

(s K
1
)
+
(s K
2
)
+

where K
1
< K
2
. Because x
+
= (x)
+
+ x, we have
t(s) =

(K
1
s)
+
(K
2
s)
+
+ K
2
K
1
.

The payoff function of a bear spread is
t(s) =

(s K
2
)
+
(s K
1
)
+

where K
1
< K
2
.

99

41. Assume the Black-Scholes framework. Consider a 1-year European contingent
claim on a stock.

You are given:

(i) The time-0 stock price is 45.

(ii) The stocks volatility is 25%.

(iii) The stock pays dividends continuously at a rate proportional to its price. The
dividend yield is 3%.

(iv) The continuously compounded risk-free interest rate is 7%.

(v) The time-1 payoff of the contingent claim is as follows:

Calculate the time-0 contingent-claim elasticity.

(A) 0.24

(B) 0.29

(C) 0.34

(D) 0.39

(E) 0.44
S(1)
42
payoff
42
100

The payoff function of the contingent claim is
t(s) = min(42, s) = 42 + min(0, s 42) = 42 max(0, 42 s) = 42 (42 s)
+

The time-0 price of the contingent claim is
V(0) =
0,1
[ ( (1))]
P
F S t
= PV(42)
0,1
[(42 (1)) ]
P
F S
+

= 42e
0.07
P(45, 42, 0.25, 0.07, 1, 0.03).

We have d
1
~ 0.56 and d
2
~ 0.31, giving N(d
1
) ~ 0.2877 and N(d
2
) ~ 0.3783.

Hence, the time-0 put price is
P(45, 42, 0.25, 0.07, 1, 0.03) = 42e
0.07
(0.3783) 45e
0.03
(0.2877) = 2.2506,
which implies
V(0) = 42e
0.07
2.2506 = 36.9099.

Elasticity =
ln
ln
V
S
c
c

=
V S
S V
c

c

=
V
S
V
A
=
Put
S
V
A .

Time-0 elasticity =
1
(0)
( )
(0)
T
S
e N d
V
o

=
0.03
45
0.2877
36.9099
e

= 0.34.

Remark: We can also work with t(s) = s (s 42)
+
; then
V(0) = 45e
0.03
C(45, 42, 0.25, 0.07, 1, 0.03)
and

call 1 1
( ) ( ).
T T T T
V
e e e N d e N d
S
o o o o
c
= A = =
c
101

42. Prices for 6-month 60-strike European up-and-out call options on a stock S are
available. Below is a table of option prices with respect to various H, the level of the
barrier. Here, S(0) = 50.

H Price of up-and-out call

60 0
70 0.1294
80 0.7583
90 1.6616
4.0861

Consider a special 6-month 60-strike European knock-in, partial knock-out call
option that knocks in at H
1
= 70, and partially knocks out at H
2
= 80. The strike
price of the option is 60. The following table summarizes the payoff at the exercise
date:

H
1
Not Hit
H
1
Hit
H
2
Not Hit H
2
Hit
0 2 max[S(0.5) 60, 0] max[S(0.5) 60, 0]

Calculate the price of the option.

(A) 0.6289

(B) 1.3872

(C) 2.1455

(D) 4.5856

(E) It cannot be determined from the information given above.
102

The knock-in, knock-out call can be thought of as a portfolio of
buying 2 ordinary up-and-in call with strike 60 and barrier H
1
,
writing 1 ordinary up-and-in call with strike 60 and barrier H
2
.

Recall also that up-and-in call + up-and-out call = ordinary call.

Let the price of the ordinary call with strike 60 be p (actually it is 4.0861),
then the price of the UIC (H
1
= 70) is p 0.1294
and the price of the UIC (H
1
= 80) is p 0.7583.

The price of the knock-in, knock out call is 2(p 0.1294) (p 0.7583) = 4.5856 .

Alternative Solution:
Let M(T) =
0
max ( )
t T
S t
s s
be the running maximum of the stock price up to time T.
Let I[.] denote the indicator function.

For various H, the first table gives the time-0 price of payoff of the form
.

The payoff described by the second table is

Thus, the time-0 price of this payoff is 4.0861 2 0.1294 0.7583 + = 4.5856 .

[ ()] [ () 60] I H M S
+
>
{ }
{ }{ }
{ }
{ }
{ }
[70 ()] 2 [80 ()] [80 ()] [ () 60]
1 [70 ()] 1 [80 ()] [ () 60]
1 [70 ()] [80 ()] [70 ()] [80 ()] [ () 60]
1 2 [70 ()] [80 ()] [ () 60]
[ ()] 2 [70 ()] [80 ()]
I M I M I M S
I M I M S
I M I M I M I M S
I M I M S
I M I M I M
+
+
+
+
s > + s
= > + >
= > + > > >
= > + >
= > > + > [ () 60] S
+

103

43. Let x(t) be the dollar/euro exchange rate at time t. That is, at time t, 1 = \$x(t).
Let the constant r be the dollar-denominated continuously compounded risk-free
interest rate. Let the constant r

## be the euro-denominated continuously

compounded risk-free interest rate.

You are given

d ( )
( )
x t
x t
= (r r

)dt + o dZ(t),
where {Z(t)} is a standard Brownian motion and o is a constant.

Let y(t) be the euro/dollar exchange rate at time t. Thus, y(t) = 1/x(t).

Which of the following equation is true?

(A)
d ( )
( )
y t
y t
= (r

r)dt o dZ(t)

(B)
d ( )
( )
y t
y t
= (r

r)dt + o dZ(t)

(C)
d ( )
( )
y t
y t
= (r

r o
2
)dt o dZ(t)

(D)
d ( )
( )
y t
y t
= (r

r + o
2
)dt + o dZ(t)

(E)
d ( )
( )
y t
y t
= (r

r + o
2
)dt o dZ(t)

104

Consider the function f(x, t) = 1/x. Then, f
t
= 0, f
x
= x
2
, f
xx
= 2x
3
.

By Its Lemma,
dy(t) = df(x(t), t)
= f
t
dt + f
x
dx(t) + f
xx
[dx(t)]
2

= 0 + [x(t)
2
]dx(t) + [2x(t)
3
][dx(t)]
2

= x(t)
1
[dx(t)/x(t)] + x(t)
1
[dx(t)/x(t)]
2

= y(t)[(r r

)dt + o dZ(t)]
2

= y(t)[(r r

## )dt + o dZ(t)] + y(t)[o

2
dt],
rearrangement of which yields

d ( )
( )
y t
y t
= (r

r + o
2
)dt o dZ(t),
which is (E).

Alternative Solution Here, we use the correspondence between

and
W(t) = W(0)exp[( v
2
)t + vZ(t)].
Thus, the condition given is
x(t) = x(0)exp[(r r

o
2
)t + oZ(t)].

Because y(t) = 1/x(t), we have
y(t) = y(0)exp{[(r r

o
2
)t + o Z(t)]}
= y(0)exp[(r

r + o
2
(o)
2
)t + (o)Z(t)],
which is (E).

Remarks:
The equation

d ( )
( )
x t
x t
= (r r

)dt + o dZ(t)

can be understood in the following way. Suppose that, at time t, an investor pays \$x(t) to
purchase 1. Then, his instantaneous profit is the sum of two quantities:

(1) instantaneous change in the exchange rate, \$[x(t+dt) x(t)], or \$ dx(t),

(2) r

## dt, which is the instantaneous interest on 1.

Hence, in US dollars, his instantaneous profit is

dx(t) + r

dt x(t+dt)
= dx(t) + r

dt [x(t) + dx(t)]
= dx(t) + x(t)r

dt, if dt dx(t) = 0.

d ( )
d d ( )
( )
W t
t Z t
W t
= +v
105

Under the risk-neutral probability measure, the expectation of the instantaneous rate
of return is the risk-free interest rate. Hence,

E[dx(t) + x(t)r

## dt | x(t)] = x(t) (rdt),

from which we obtain
r

)dt.
Furthermore, we now see that {Z(t)} is a (standard) Brownian motion under the
dollar-investors risk-neutral probability measure.

By similar reasoning, we would expect

d ( )
( )
y t
y t
= (r

r)dt + dZ

(t),

where {Z

## (t)} is a (standard) Brownian motion under the euro-investors risk-neutral

probability measure and e is a constant. It follows from (E) that = o and
Z

(t) = Z(t) o t.
Let W be a contingent claim in dollars payable at time t. Then, its time-0 price in
dollars is
E[e
rt
W],
where the expectation is taken with respect to the dollar-investors risk-neutral
probability measure. Alternatively, let us calculate the price by the following four steps:

Step 1: We convert the time-t payoff to euros,
y(t)W.

Step 2: We discount the amount back to time 0 using the euro-denominated risk-free
interest rate,
exp(r

t) y(t)W.

Step 3: We take expectation with respect to the euro-investors risk-neutral probability
measure to obtain the contingent claims time-0 price in euros,
E

[exp(r

t) y(t)W].
Here, E

## signifies that the expectation is taken with respect to the euro-

investors risk-neutral probability measure.

Step 4: We convert the price in euros to a price in dollars using the time-0 exchange
rate x(0).

We now verify that both methods give the same price, i.e., we check that the
following formula holds:
x(0)E

[exp(r

t) y(t)W] = E[e
rt
W].
This we do by using Girsanovs Theorem (McDonald 2006, p. 662). It follows
from Z

## (t) = Z(t) o t and footnote 9 on page 662 that

E

[y(t)W] = E[,(t)y(t)W],
d ( )
E ( ) (
( )
x t
x t r
x t
(
=
(

106

where
,(t) = exp[(o)Z(t) (o)
2
t] = exp[o Z(t) o
2
t].

Because
y(t) = y(0)exp[(r

r + o
2
)t o Z(t)],
we see that
exp(r

t)y(t),(t) = y(0)exp(rt).
Since x(0)y(0) = 1, we indeed have the identity
x(0)E

[exp(r

t) y(t)W] = E[e
rt
W].

If W is the payoff of a call option on euros,
W = [x(t) K]
+
,
then

x(0)E

[exp(r

t) y(t)W] = E[e
rt
W]
is a special case of identity (9.7) on page 292. A derivation of (9.7) is as follows. It is
not necessary to assume that the exchange rate follows a geometric Brownian motion.
Also, both risk-free interest rates can be stochastic.

The payoff of a t-year K-strike dollar-dominated call option on euros is
\$[x(t) K]
+

= [\$x(t) \$K]
+

= [1 \$K]
+

= [1 y(t)K]
+

= K [1/K y(t)]
+
,
which is K times the payoff of a t-year (1/K)-strike euro-dominated put option on dollars.
Let C
\$
(x(0), K, t) denote the time-0 price of a t-year K-strike dollar-dominated call option
on euros, and let P

## (y(0), H, t) denote the time-0 price of a t-year H-strike euro-

dominated put option on dollars. It follows from the time-t identity
\$[x(t) K]
+
= K [1/K y(t)]
+

that we have the time-0 identity
\$ C
\$
(x(0), K, t) = K P

(y(0), 1/K, t)
= \$ x(0) K P

(y(0), 1/K, t)
= \$ x(0) K P

## (1/x(0), 1/K, t),

which is formula (9.7) on page 292.

107

For Questions 44 and 45, consider the following three-period binomial tree model for a
stock that pays dividends continuously at a rate proportional to its price. The length of
each period is 1 year, the continuously compounded risk-free interest rate is 10%, and the
continuous dividend yield on the stock is 6.5%.

44. Calculate the price of a 3-year at-the-money American put option on the stock.

(A) 15.86

(B) 27.40

(C) 32.60

(D) 39.73

(E) 57.49

45. Approximate the value of gamma at time 0 for the 3-year at-the-money American
put on the stock using the method in Appendix 13.B of McDonald (2006).

(A) 0.0038

(B) 0.0041

(C) 0.0044

(D) 0.0047

(E) 0.0050
300
375

210
468.75

262.5

147
585.9375

328.125

183.75

102.9
108

By formula (10.5), the risk-neutral probability of an up move is
.

Remark

If the put option is European, not American, then the simplest method is to use the
binomial formula [p. 358, (11.17); p. 618, (19.1)]:
e
r(3h)
(

+ +
|
|
.
|

\
|
+
|
|
.
|

\
|
0 0 ) 75 . 183 300 ( *) 1 ( *
2
3
) 9 . 102 300 ( *) 1 (
3
3
2 3
p p p
= e
r(3h)
(1 p*)
2
[(1 p*) 197.1 + 3 p* 116.25)]
= e
r(3h)
(1 p*)
2
(197.1 + 151.65p*)
= e
0.1 3
0.38978
2
289.63951 = 32.5997

Formula (13.16) is
d u
d u
S S
A A
= I . By formula (13.15) (or (10.1)), .
) (

d u S
C C
e
d u h

= A

908670 . 0
147 5 . 262
153 0002 . 41
186279 . 0
5 . 262 75 . 468
0002 . 41 0
1 065 . 0
1 065 . 0
=

= A
=

= A

e
S S
P P
e
e
S S
P P
e
dd ud
dd ud h
d
ud uu
ud uu h
u

Hence,
004378 . 0
210 375
908670 . 0 186279 . 0
=

+
= I

Remark: This is an approximation, because we wish to know gamma at time 0, not at
time 1, and at the stock price S
0
= 300.
61022 . 0
210 375
210 300
*
1 ) 065 . 0 1 . 0 ( ) (
0
) (
=

=

e
S S
S e S
d u
d e
p
d u
d
h r h r
300
(39.7263)
375
(14.46034)

210
(76.5997)
90
468.75
(0)

262.5
(41.0002)

147
(133.702)
153
585.9375
(0)

328.125
(0)

183.75
(116.25)

102.9
(197.1)
Option prices in bold italic signify
that exercise is optimal at that node.
109

46. You are to price options on a futures contract. The movements of the futures price
are modeled by a binomial tree. You are given:

(i) Each period is 6 months.
(ii) u/d = 4/3, where u is one plus the rate of gain on the futures price if it goes up,
and d is one plus the rate of loss if it goes down.
(iii) The risk-neutral probability of an up move is 1/3.
(iv) The initial futures price is 80.
(v) The continuously compounded risk-free interest rate is 5%.

Let C
I
be the price of a 1-year 85-strike European call option on the futures
contract, and C
II
be the price of an otherwise identical American call option.

Determine C
II
C
I
.

(A) 0
(B) 0.022
(C) 0.044
(D) 0.066
(E) 0.088

110

By formula (10.14), the risk-neutral probability of an up move is
.
Substituting p* = 1/3 and u/d = 4/3, we have
.
Hence, and .

The two-period binomial tree for the futures price and prices of European and American
options at t = 0.5 and t = 1 is given below. The calculation of the European option prices
at t = 0.5 is given by
455145 . 0 *)] 1 ( 0 * 4 . 1 [
72841 . 10 *)] 1 ( 4 . 1 * 2 . 30 [
5 . 0 05 . 0
5 . 0 05 . 0
= +
= +

p p e
p p e

Thus, C
II
C
I
= e
0.050.5
(11 10.72841) p* = 0.088.

Remarks:
(i) . 78378 . 3 *)] 1 ( 455145 . 0 * 72841 . 10 [
5 . 0 05 . 0
= + =

p p e C
I

. 87207 . 3 *)] 1 ( 455145 . 0 * 11 [
5 . 0 05 . 0
= + =

p p e C
II

(ii) A futures price can be treated like a stock with o = r. With this observation, we can
obtain (10.14) from (10.5),
.
1
*
) ( ) (
d u
d
d u
d e
d u
d e
p
h r r h r

=
o

Another application is the determination of the price sensitivity of a futures option
with respect to a change in the futures price. We learn from page 317 that the price
sensitivity of a stock option with respect to a change in the stock price is
( )
h u d
C C
e
S u d
o

( )
rh u d
C C
e
F u d

## , which is the same

as the expression
rh
e

## A given in footnote 7 on page 333.

1 /
1 / 1 1
*

=
d u
d
d u
d
p
1 3 / 4
1 / 1
3
1

=
d
9 . 0 = d (4/ 3) 1.2 u d = =
80
96
(10.72841)
11

72
(0.455145)

115.2
(30.2)

86.4
(1.4)

64.8
(0)
An option price in bold italic signifies
that exercise is optimal at that node.
111

47. Several months ago, an investor sold 100 units of a one-year European call option
on a nondividend-paying stock. She immediately delta-hedged the commitment
with shares of the stock, but has not ever re-balanced her portfolio. She now
decides to close out all positions.

You are given the following information:

(i) The risk-free interest rate is constant.

(ii)
Several months ago Now

Stock price \$40.00 \$50.00
Call option price \$ 8.88 \$14.42
Put option price \$ 1.63 \$ 0.26
Call option delta 0.794

The put option in the table above is a European option on the same stock and
with the same strike price and expiration date as the call option.

Calculate her profit.

(A) \$11

(B) \$24

(C) \$126

(D) \$217

(E) \$240

112

Let the date several months ago be 0. Let the current date be t.

Delta-hedging at time 0 means that the investors cash position at time 0 was
100[C(0) A
C
(0)S(0)].
After closing out all positions at time t, her profit is
100{[C(0) A
C
(0)S(0)]e
rt
[C(t) A
C
(0)S(t)]}.

To find the accumulation factor e
rt
, we can use put-call parity:
C(0) P(0) = S(0) Ke
rT
,
C(t) P(t) = S(t) Ke
r(Tt)
,
where T is the option expiration date. Then,
e
rt
=
( ) ( ) ( )
(0) (0) (0)
S t C t P t
S C P
+
+
=
50 14.42 0.26
40 8.88 1.63
+
+
=
35.84
32.75
= 1.0943511.

Thus, her profit is
100{[C(0) A
C
(0)S(0)]e
rt
[C(t) A
C
(0)S(t)]}
= 100{[8.88 0.794 40] 1.09435 [14.42 0.794 50]}
= 24.13 ~ 24

Alternative Solution: Consider profit as the sum of (i) capital gain and (ii) interest:
(i) capital gain = 100{[C(0) C(t)] A
C
(0)[S(0) S(t)]}
(ii) interest = 100[C(0) A
C
(0)S(0)](e
rt
1).
Now,
capital gain = 100{[C(0) C(t)] A
C
(0)[S(0) S(t)]}
= 100{[8.88 14.42] 0.794[40 50]}
= 100{5.54 + 7.94} = 240.00.
To determine the amount of interest, we first calculate her cash position at time 0:
100[C(0) A
C
(0)S(0)] = 100[8.88 400.794]
= 100[8.88 31.76] = 2288.00.
Hence,
interest = 2288(1.09435 1) = 215.87.
Thus, the investors profit is 240.00 215.87 = 24.13 ~ 24.

Third Solution: Use the table format in Section 13.3 of McDonald (2006).

Position Cost at time 0 Value at time t
Short 100 calls 100 8.88 = 888 100 14.42 = 1442
100A shares of stock 100 0.794 40 = 3176 100 0.794 50 = 3970
Borrowing 3176 888 = 2288 2288e
rt
= 2503.8753
Overall 0 24.13

113

Remark: The problem can still be solved if the short-rate is deterministic (but not
necessarily constant). Then, the accumulation factor e
rt
is replaced by
0
exp[ ( )d ]
t
r s s
}
,
which can be determined using the put-call parity formulas
C(0) P(0) = S(0) K
0
exp[ ( )d ]
T
r s s
}
,
C(t) P(t) = S(t) Kexp[ ( )d ]
T
t
r s s
}
.
If interest rates are stochastic, the problem as stated cannot be solved.
114

48. The prices of two nondividend-paying stocks are governed by the following
stochastic differential equations:

1
1
d ( )
0.06d 0.02d ( ),
( )
S t
t Z t
S t
= +

2
2
d ( )
0.03d d ( ),
( )
S t
t k Z t
S t
= +

where Z(t) is a standard Brownian motion and k is a constant.

The current stock prices are
1
(0) 100 S = and
2
(0) 50. S =

The continuously compounded risk-free interest rate is 4%.

You now want to construct a zero-investment, risk-free portfolio with the two
stocks and risk-free bonds.

If there is exactly one share of Stock 1 in the portfolio, determine the number of
shares of Stock 2 that you are now to buy. (A negative number means shorting
Stock 2.)

(A) 4

(B) 2

(C) 1

(D) 1

(E) 4

115

The problem is a variation of Exercise 20.12 where one asset is perfectly negatively
correlated with another.

The no-arbitrage argument in Section 20.4 The Sharpe Ratio shows that

02 . 0
04 . 0 06 . 0
=
k
04 . 0 03 . 0

or k = 0.01, and that the current number of shares of Stock 2 in the hedged portfolio is

) 0 (
) 0 (
2
1 1
S k
S

o
=
50 ) 01 . 0 (
100 02 . 0

= 4,
which means buying four shares of Stock 2.

Alternative Solution: Construct the zero-investment, risk-free portfolio by following
formula (21.7) or formula (24.4):
I(t) = S
1
(t) + N(t)S
2
(t) + W(t),
where N(t) is the number of shares of Stock 2 in the portfolio at time t and W(t) is the
amount of short-term bonds so that I(t) = 0, i.e.,
W(t) = [S
1
(t) + N(t)S
2
(t)].
Our goal is to find N(0). Now, the instantaneous change in the portfolio value is
dI(t) = dS
1
(t) + N(t)dS
2
(t) + W(t)rdt
= S
1
(t)[0.06dt + 0.02dZ(t)] + N(t)S
2
(t)[0.03dt + kdZ(t)] + 0.04W(t)dt
= o(t)dt + |(t)dZ(t),
where
o(t) = 0.06S
1
(t) + 0.03N(t)S
2
(t) 0.04[S
1
(t) + N(t)S
2
(t)]
= 0.02S
1
(t) 0.01N(t)S
2
(t),
and
|(t) = 0.02S
1
(t) + kN(t)S
2
(t).

The portfolio is risk-free means that N(t) is such that |(t) = 0. Since I(t) = 0, the no-
arbitrage condition and the risk-free condition mean that we must also have o(t) = 0, or

) ( 01 . 0
) ( 02 . 0
) (
2
1
t S
t S
t N = .
In particular,
4
5 . 0
2
) 0 ( 01 . 0
) 0 ( 02 . 0
) 0 (
2
1
= = =
S
S
N .

Remark: Equation (21.20) on page 687 of McDonald (2006) should be the same as
(12.9) on page 393,
o
option
= |O| o.
Thus, (21.21) should be changed to
= sign(O)
option
option
o
o r
.
o
o r
116

49. You use the usual method in McDonald and the following information to construct
a one-period binomial tree for modeling the price movements of a nondividend-
paying stock. (The tree is sometimes called a forward tree).

(i) The period is 3 months.

(ii) The initial stock price is \$100.

(iii) The stocks volatility is 30%.

(iv) The continuously compounded risk-free interest rate is 4%.

At the beginning of the period, an investor owns an American put option on the
stock. The option expires at the end of the period.

Determine the smallest integer-valued strike price for which an investor will
exercise the put option at the beginning of the period.

(A) 114

(B) 115

(C) 116

(D) 117

(E) 118
117

= 1.173511
= 0.869358
S = initial stock price = 100

The problem is to find the smallest integer K satisfying
K S > e
rh
[p* Max(K Su, 0) + (1 p*) Max(K Sd, 0)]. (1)

Because the RHS of (1) is nonnegative (the payoff of an option is nonnegative), we have
the condition
K S > 0. (2)

As d < 1, it follows from condition (2) that
Max(K Sd, 0) = K Sd,
and inequality (1) becomes
K S > e
rh
[p* Max(K Su, 0) + (1 p*) (K Sd)]. (3)

If K Su, the right-hand side of (3) is
e
rh
[p* (K Su) + (1 p*) (K Sd)]
= e
rh
K e
oh
S
= e
rh
K S,
because the stock pays no dividends. Thus, if K Su, inequality (3) always holds, and
the put option is exercised early.

We now investigate whether there is any K, S < K < Su, such that inequality (3) holds. If
Su > K, then Max(K Su, 0) = 0 and inequality (3) simplifies as
K S > e
rh
(1 p*) (K Sd),
or
K >
) * 1 ( 1
) * 1 ( 1
p e
d p e
rh
rh

S. (4)

The fraction
) * 1 ( 1
) * 1 ( 1
p e
d p e
rh
rh

## can be simplified as follows, but this step is not

necessary. In McDonalds forward-tree model,
1 p* = p*
h
e
o
,
from which we obtain
1 p* =
h
e
o
+ 1
1
.
( ) (0.04/ 4) (0.3/ 2) 0.16 r h h rh h
u e e e e
o o o + + +
= = = =
( ) (0.04/ 4) (0.3/ 2) 0.14 r h h rh h
d e e e e
o o o
= = = =
118

Hence,
) * 1 ( 1
) * 1 ( 1
p e
d p e
rh
rh

=
rh h
rh h
e e
d e e
o
o
+
+
1
1

=
rh h
h h
e e
e e
o
o o
+
+
1
1
because o = 0
=
rh h
e e
o
+ 1
1
.
Therefore, inequality (4) becomes
K >
rh h
e e
o
+ 1
1
S
=
01 . 0 15 . 0
1
1

+ e e
S = 1.148556100 = 114.8556.
Thus, the answer to the problem is 114.8556( = 115, which is (B).

Alternative Solution:
= 1.173511
= 0.869358
S = initial stock price = 100
p* = = 0.46257.
Then, inequality (1) is
K 100 > e
0.01
[0.4626 (K 117.35)
+
+ 0.5374 (K 86.94)
+
], (5)
and we check three cases: K 86.94, K 117.35, and 86.94 < K < 117.35.

For K 86.94, inequality (5) cannot hold, because its LHS < 0 and its RHS = 0.
For K 117.35, (5) always holds, because its LHS = K 100 while
its RHS = e
0.01
K 100.
For 86.94 < K < 117.35, inequality (5) becomes
K 100 > e
0.01
0.5374 (K 86.94),
or
K >
0.01
0.01
100 0.5374 86.94
1 0.5374
e
e

= 114.85.

Third Solution: Use the method of trial and error. For K = 114, 115, , check whether
inequality (5) holds.

Remark: An American call option on a nondividend-paying stock is never exercised
early. This problem shows that the corresponding statement for American puts is not
true.
( ) (0.04/ 4) (0.3/ 2) 0.16 r h h rh h
u e e e e
o o o + + +
= = = =
( ) (0.04/ 4) (0.3/ 2) 0.14 r h h rh h
d e e e e
o o o
= = = =
0.3/ 2 0.15
1 1 1 1
1+1.1618
1 1
1
h
e e
e
o
= = =
+ +
+
119

50. Assume the Black-Scholes framework.

You are given the following information for a stock that pays dividends
continuously at a rate proportional to its price.

(i) The current stock price is 0.25.

(ii) The stocks volatility is 0.35.

(iii) The continuously compounded expected rate of stock-price appreciation is
15%.

Calculate the upper limit of the 90% lognormal confidence interval for the price of
the stock in 6 months.

(A) 0.393
(B) 0.425
(C) 0.451
(D) 0.486
(E) 0.529
120

This problem is a modification of #4 in the May 2007 Exam C.

The conditions given are:
(i) S
0
= 0.25,
(ii) o = 0.35,
(iii) o o = 0.15.

We are to seek the number
0.5
U
S such that
0.5 0.5
Pr( )
U
S S < = 0.95.
The random variable
0.5
ln( / 0.25) S is normally distributed with

2
mean (0.15 0.35 ) 0.5 0.044375,
standard deviation 0.35 0.5 0.24749.
= =
= =

Because N
1
(0.95) = 1.645, we have

1
0.044375 0.24749 (0.95) 0.4515 N

+ = .
Thus,

0.5
U
S =
0.4515
0.25 0.3927 e = .

Remark The term confidence interval as used in Section 18.4 seems incorrect, because
S
t
is a random variable, not an unknown, but constant, parameter. The expression
Pr( ) 1
L U
t t t
S S S p < < =
gives the probability that the random variable S
t
is between
L
t
S and
U
t
S , not the
confidence for S
t
to be between
L
t
S and
U
t
S .

121

51. Assume the Black-Scholes framework.

The price of a nondividend-paying stock in seven consecutive months is:

Month Price
1 54
2 56
3 48
4 55
5 60
6 58
7 62

Estimate the continuously compounded expected rate of return on the stock.

(A) Less than 0.28

(B) At least 0.28, but less than 0.29

(C) At least 0.29, but less than 0.30

(D) At least 0.30, but less than 0.31

(E) At least 0.31
122

This problem is a modification of #34 in the May 2007 Exam C. Note that you are given
monthly prices, but you are asked to find an annual rate.

It is assumed that the stock price process is given by

d ( )
( )
S t
S t
= o dt + o dZ(t), t > 0.
We are to estimate o, using observed values of S(jh), j = 0, 1, 2, .. , n, where h = 1/12 and
n = 6. The solution to the stochastic differential equation is
S(t) = S(0)exp[(o o
2
)t + o Z(t)].
Thus, ln[S((j+1)h)/S(jh)], j = 0, 1, 2, , are i.i.d. normal random variables with mean
(o o
2
)h and variance o
2
h.

Let {r
j
} denote the observed continuously compounded monthly returns:
r
1
= ln(56/54) = 0.03637,
r
2
= ln(48/56) = 0.15415,
r
3
= ln(55/48) = 0.13613,
r
4
= ln(60/55) = 0.08701,
r
5
= ln(58/60) = 0.03390,
r
6
= ln(62/58) = 0.06669.
The sample mean is
r =

=
n
j
j
r
n
1
1
=
n
1
0
( )
ln
( )
nh
S t
S t
=
1
6
62
ln
54
= 0.023025.
The (unbiased) sample variance is

n
j
j
r r
n
1
2
) (
1
1
=
2 2
1
1
( )
1
n
j
j
r nr
n
=
(
(

=
6
2 2
1
1
( ) 6
5
j
j
r r
=
(
(
(

= 0.01071.

Thus, o = (o o
2
) + o
2
is estimated by
(0.023025 + 0.01071) 12 = 0.3405.

123

Remarks:
(i) Let T = nh. Then the estimator of o o
2
is

r
h
=
1
nh
( )
ln
(0)
S T
S
=
ln[ ( )] ln[ (0)]
0
S T S
T

.
This is a special case of the result that the drift of an arithmetic Brownian motion is
estimated by the slope of the straight line joining its first and last observed values.
Observed values of the arithmetic Brownian motion in between are not used.

(ii) An (unbiased) estimator of o
2
is

h
1
2 2
1
1
( )
1
n
j
j
r nr
n
=
(
(

=
T
1
2
2
1
1 ( )
( ) ln
1 1 (0)
n
j
j
n S T
r
n n S
=

(

`
(

)

T
1
1
n
n
2
1
( )
n
j
j
r
=

## for large n (small h)

=
T
1
1
n
n
2
1
{ln[ ( / ) / (( 1) / )]}
n
j
S jT n S j T n
=

,
which can be found in footnote 9 on page 756 of McDonald (2006). It is equivalent
to formula (23.2) on page 744 of McDonald (2006), which is
=
1
h
1
1 n
2
1
{ln[ ( / ) / (( 1) / )]}
n
j
S jT n S j T n
=

.

(iii) An important result (McDonald 2006, p. 653, p. 755) is: With probability 1,
lim
n

2
1
{ln[ ( / ) / (( 1) / )]}
n
j
S jT n S j T n
=

= o
2
T,
showing that the exact value of o can be obtained by means of a single sample path
of the stock price. Here is an implication of this result. Suppose that an actuary
uses a so-called regime-switching model to model the price of a stock (or stock
index), with each regime being characterized by a different o. In such a model, the
current regime can be determined by this formula. If the price of the stock can be
observed over a time interval, no matter how short the time interval is, then o is
revealed immediately by determining the quadratic variation of the logarithm of the
stock price.

2

H
o
124

52. The price of a stock is to be estimated using simulation. It is known that:

(i) The time-t stock price, S
t
, follows the lognormal distribution:

0
ln
t
S
S
| |
|
\ .
~ N
2 2
(( ) , ) t t o o o

(ii) S
0
= 50, o = 0.15, and o = 0.30.

The following are three uniform (0, 1) random numbers

0.9830 0.0384 0.7794

Use each of these three numbers to simulate a time-2 stock price.

Calculate the mean of the three simulated prices.

(A) Less than 75

(B) At least 75, but less than 85

(C) At least 85, but less than 95

(D) At least 95, but less than 115

(E) At least 115
125

This problem is a modification of #19 in the May 2007 Exam C.

U ~ Uniform (0, 1)
N
1
(U) ~ N(0, 1)
a + bN
1
(U) ~ N(a, b
2
)

The random variable
2
ln( / 50) S has a normal distribution with mean
2
(0.15 0.3 ) 2 0.21 = and variance 0.3
2
2 = 0.18, and thus a standard deviation of
0.4243.

The three uniform random numbers become the following three values from the standard
normal: 2.12, 1.77, 0.77. Upon multiplying each by the standard deviation of 0.4243
and adding the mean of 0.21, the resulting normal values are 1.109, 0.541, and 0.537.
The simulated stock prices are obtained by exponentiating these numbers and multiplying
by 50. This yields 151.57, 29.11, and 85.54. The average of these three numbers is
88.74.
126

53. Assume the Black-Scholes framework. For a European put option and a European
gap call option on a stock, you are given:

(i) The expiry date for both options is T.

(ii) The put option has a strike price of 40.

(iii) The gap call option has strike price 45 and payment trigger 40.

(iv) The time-0 gamma of the put option is 0.07.

(v) The time-0 gamma of the gap call option is 0.08.

Consider a European cash-or-nothing call option that pays 1000 at time T if the
stock price at that time is higher than 40.

Find the time-0 gamma of the cash-or-nothing call option.

(A) 5

(B) 2

(C) 2

(D) 5

(E) 8

127

Let I[.] be the indicator function, i.e., I[A] = 1 if the event A is true, and I[A] = 0 if the
event A is false. Let K
1
be the strike price and K
2
be the payment trigger of the gap call
option. The payoff of the gap call option is

[S(T) K
1
] I[S(T) > K
2
] = [S(T) K
2
] I[S(T) > K
2
] + (K
2
K
1
) I[S(T) > K
2
].

Because differentiation is a linear operation, each Greek (except for omega or elasticity)
of a portfolio is the sum of the corresponding Greeks for the components of the portfolio
(McDonald 2006, page 395). Thus,

Gap call gamma = Call gamma + (K
2
K
1
) Cash-or-nothing call gamma

As pointed out on line 12 of page 384 of McDonald (2006), call gamma equals put
gamma. (To see this, differentiate the put-call parity formula twice with respect to S.)

Because K
2
K
1
= 40 45 = 5, call gamma = put gamma = 0.07, and
gap call gamma = 0.08, we have
Cash-or-nothing call gamma = =

5
07 . 0 08 . 0
0.002

Hence the answer is 1000 (0.002) = 2.

Remark: Another decomposition of the payoff of the gap call option is the following:

[S(T) K
1
] I[S(T) > K
2
] = S(T) I[S(T) > K
2
] K
1
I[S(T) > K
2
].

See page 707 of McDonald (2006). Such a decomposition, however, is not useful here.
(K
2
K
1
) times the payoff of
a cash-or-nothing call
that pays \$1 if S(T) > K
2

payoff of
a K
2
-strike call
K
1
times the payoff of
a cash-or-nothing call
that pays \$1 if S(T) > K
2

payoff of an
asset-or-nothing call
128

54. Assume the Black-Scholes framework. Consider two nondividend-paying stocks
whose time-t prices are denoted by S
1
(t) and S
2
(t), respectively.

You are given:

(i) S
1
(0) = 10 and S
2
(0) = 20.

(ii) Stock 1s volatility is 0.18.

(iii) Stock 2s volatility is 0.25.

(iv) The correlation between the continuously compounded returns of the two
stocks is 0.40.

(v) The continuously compounded risk-free interest rate is 5%.

(vi) A one-year European option with payoff max{min[2S
1
(1), S
2
(1)] 17, 0} has
a current (time-0) price of 1.632.

Consider a European option that gives its holder the right to sell either two shares of
Stock 1 or one share of Stock 2 at a price of 17 one year from now.

Calculate the current (time-0) price of this option.

(A) 0.66

(B) 1.12

(C) 1.49

(D) 5.18

(E) 7.86
129

At the option-exercise date, the option holder will sell two shares of Stock 1 or one share
of Stock 2, depending on which trade is of lower cost. Thus, the time-1 payoff of the
option is
max{17 min[2S
1
(1), S
2
(1)], 0},
which is the payoff of a 17-strike put on min[2S
1
(1), S
2
(1)]. Define
M(T) = min[2S
1
(T), S
2
(T)].

Consider put-call parity with respect to M(T):

c(K, T) p(K, T) =
rT P
T
Ke M F

) (
, 0
.

Here, K = 17 and T = 1. It is given in (vi) that c(17, 1) = 1.632. is the time-0
price of the security with time-1 payoff

M(1) = min[2S
1
(1), S
2
(1)] = 2S
1
(1) max[2S
1
(1) S
2
(1), 0].

Since max[2S
1
(1) S
2
(1), 0] is the payoff of an exchange option, its price can be obtained
using (14.16) and (14.17):

3618 . 0 ) 25 . 0 )( 18 . 0 )( 4 . 0 ( 2 25 . 0 18 . 0
2 2
= + = o
2
1 2
1
ln[2 (0) / (0)]
0.1809 0.18
S S T
d T
T
+ o
= = o = ~
o
, N(d
1
) = 0.5714
2 1
0.18 d d T T = o = o ~ , N(d
2
) = 1 0.5714 = 0.4286

Price of the exchange option = 2S
1
(0)N(d
1
) S
2
(0)N(d
2
) = 20N(d
1
) 20N(d
2
) = 2.856

Thus,
0,1 0,1 1
( ) 2 ( ) 2.856 2 10 2.856 17.144
P P
F M F S = = =
and
p(17, 1) = 1.632 17.144 + 17e
0.05
= 0.6589.

Remarks: (i) The exchange option above is an at-the-money exchange option because
2S
1
(0) = S
2
(ii) Further discussion on exchange options can be found in Section 22.6, which is not
part of the MFE/3F syllabus. Q and S in Section 22.6 correspond to 2S
1
and S
2
in this
problem.

) (
1 , 0
M F
P
130

55. Assume the Black-Scholes framework. Consider a 9-month at-the-money European
put option on a futures contract. You are given:

(i) The continuously compounded risk-free interest rate is 10%.

(ii) The strike price of the option is 20.

(iii) The price of the put option is 1.625.

If three months later the futures price is 17.7, what is the price of the put option at
that time?

(A) 2.09

(B) 2.25

(C) 2.45

(D) 2.66

(E) 2.83

131

By (12.7), the price of the put option is
)], ( ) ( [
1 2
d FN d KN e P
rT
=

where
2
1
ln( / ) F K T
d
T
+ o
=
o
, and T d d o =
1 2
.
With F = K, we have ln(F / K) = 0,
2
1

T
d T
T
o
= = o
o
,
2
d T = o , and
[ ( ) ( )] [2 ( ) 1]
rT rT
P Fe N T N T Fe N T

= o o = o .

Putting P = 1.6, r = 0.1, T = 0.75, and F = 20, we get
0.1 0.75
1.625 20 [2 ( 0.75) 1]
( 0.75) 0.5438
0.75 0.11
0.254
e N
N

= o
o =
o =
o =

After 3 months, we have F = 17.7 and T = 0.5; hence
2 2
1
ln( / ) ln(17.7 / 20) 0.254 0.5
0.5904 0.59
0.254 0.5
F K T
d
T
+ o +
= = = ~
o

N(d
1
) ~ 0.7224

7700 . 0 5 . 0 254 . 0 5904 . 0
1 2
= = = T d d o

N(d
2
) ~ 0.7794

The put price at that time is
P = e
rT
[KN(d
2
) FN(d
1
)]
= e
0.1 0.5
[20 0.7794 17.7 0.7224]
= 2.66489

132

Remarks:
(i) A somewhat related problem is #8 in the May 2007 MFE exam. Also see the box
on page 299 and the one on page 603 of McDonald (2006).
(ii) For European call and put options on a futures contract with the same exercise date,
the call price and put price are the same if and only if both are at-the-money
options. The result follows from put-call parity. See the first equation in Table 9.9
on page 305 of McDonald (2006).
(iii) The point above can be generalized. It follows from the identity
[S
1
(T) S
2
(T)]
+
+ S
2
(T) = [S
2
(T) S
1
(T)]
+
+ S
1
(T)
that

0, 1 2
(( ) )
P
T
F S S
+
+
0, 2
( )
P
T
F S =
0, 2 1
(( ) )
P
T
F S S
+
+
0, 1
( )
P
T
F S .
0, 1 2
(( ) )
P
T
F S S
+
and
0, 2 1
(( ) )
P
T
F S S
+
are time-0 prices of exchange options. The two exchange options
have the same price if and only if the two prepaid forward prices,
0, 1
( )
P
T
F S and
0, 2
( )
P
T
F S , are the same.

133

56. Assume the Black-Scholes framework. For a stock that pays dividends
continuously at a rate proportional to its price, you are given:

(i) The current stock price is 5.

(ii) The stocks volatility is 0.2.

(iii) The continuously compounded expected rate of stock-price appreciation is
5%.

Consider a 2-year arithmetic average strike option. The strike price is
)] 2 ( ) 1 ( [
2
1
) 2 ( S S A + = .

Calculate Var[A(2)].

(A) 1.51

(B) 5.57

(C) 10.29

(D) 22.29

(E) 30.57

134

Var[A(2)] =
2
1
2
| |
|
\ .
{E[(S(1) + S(2))
2
] (E[S(1) + S(2)])
2
}.

The second expectation is easier to evaluate. By (20.29) on page 665 of McDonald
(2006),
S(t) = S(0)exp[(o o o
2
)t + o Z(t)].
Thus,
E[S(t)] = S(0)exp[(o o o
2
)t]E[e
o Z(t)
]
= S(0)exp[(o o)t]
E[S(1) + S(2)] = E[S(1)] + E[S(2)]
= 5(e
0.05
+ e
0.1
),
because condition (iii) means that o o = 0.05.

We now evaluate the first expectation, E[(S(1) + S(2))
2
]. Because
2
( 1)
exp{( ) [ ( 1) ( )]}
( )
S t
Z t Z t
S t
+
= o o + o +
and because {Z(t + 1) Z(t), t = 0, 1, 2, ...} are i.i.d. N(0, 1) random variables (the
second and third points at the bottom of page 650), we see that
( 1)
, 0, 1, 2,
( )
S t
t
S t
+
=
`
)
is a sequence of i.i.d. random variables. Thus,
E[(S(1) + S(2))
2
] =
2
2
(2)
E (1) 1
(1)
S
S
S
(
| |
(
+
|
(
\ .

=
2 2
2
(1) (2)
(0) E E 1
(0) (1)
S S
S
S S
( (
| | | |
( (
+
| |
( (
\ . \ .

=
2 2
2
(1) (1)
(0) E E 1
(0) (0)
S S
S
S S
( (
| | | |
( (
+
| |
( (
\ . \ .

.

By the last equation on page 667, we have

( )
E
(0)
a
S t
S
(
| |
(
|
(
\ .

=
2
[ ( ) ( 1) ] a a a t
e
o + o
.
(This formula can also be obtained from (18.18) and (18.13). A formula equivalent to
(18.13) will be provided to candidates writing Exam MFE/3F. See the last formula on
135

the first page in http://www.soa.org/files/pdf/edu-2009-fall-mfe-table.pdf ) With a = 2
and t = 1, the formula becomes
(
(

|
|
.
|

\
|
2
) 0 (
) 1 (
E
S
S
= exp[20.05 + 0.2
2
] = e
0.14
.
Furthermore,

2 2
0.05 0.14
(1) (1) (1)
E 1 1 2E E 1 2
(0) (0) (0)
S S S
e e
S S S
( (
| | ( | |
( (
+ = + + = + +
| | (
( (
\ . \ .

.

Hence,
E[(S(1) + S(2))
2
] = 5
2
e
0.14
(1 + 2e
0.05
+ e
0.14
) = 122.29757.

Finally,
Var[A(2)] = {122.29757 [5(e
0.05
+ e
0.1
)]
2
} = 1.51038.

Alternative Solution:

Var[S(1) + S(2)] = Var[S(1)] + Var[S(2)] + 2Cov[S(1), S(2)].

Because S(t) is a lognormal random variable, the two variances can be evaluated using
the following formula, which is a consequence of (18.14) on page 595.
Var[S(t)] = Var[S(0)exp[(o o o
2
)t + o Z(t)]
= S
2
(0)exp[2(o o o
2
)t]Var[e
o Z(t)
]
= S
2
(0)exp[2(o o o
2
)t]exp(o
2
t)[exp(o
2
t) 1]
= S
2
(0) e
2(o o)t
[exp(o
2
t) 1].
(As a check, we can use the well-known formula for the square of the coefficient of
variation of a lognormal random variable. In this case, it takes the form

2
Var[ ( )]
{E[ ( )]}
S t
S t
=
2
t
e
o
1.
This matches with the results above. The coefficient of variation is in the syllabus of
Exam C/4.)
136

To evaluate the covariance, we can use the formula
Cov(X, Y) = E[XY] E[X]E[Y].
In this case, however, there is a better covariance formula:
Cov(X, Y) = Cov[X, E(Y | X)].
Thus,
Cov[S(1), S(2)] = Cov[S(1), E[S(2)|S(1)]]
= Cov[S(1), S(1)E[S(2)/S(1)|S(1)]]
= Cov[S(1), S(1)E[S(1)/S(0)]]
= E[S(1)/S(0)]Cov[S(1), S(1)]
= e
o o
Var[S(1)].
Hence,
Var[S(1) + S(2)] = (1 + 2e
o o
)Var[S(1)] + Var[S(2)]
= [S(0)]
2
[(1 + 2e
o o
)e
2(o o)
(
2
e
o
1) + e
4(o o)
( 1)]
= 25[(1 + 2e
0.05
)e
0.1
(e
0.04
1) + e
0.2
(e
0.08
1)]
= 6.041516,
and
Var[A(2)] = Var[S(1) + S(2)]/4
= 6.041516 / 4
= 1.510379.

Remark: #37 in this set of sample questions is on determining the variance of a
geometric average. It is an easier problem.
2
2
e
o
137

57. Michael uses the following method to simulate 8 standard normal random variates:

Step 1: Simulate 8 uniform (0, 1) random numbers U
1
, U
2
, ... , U
8
.

Step 2: Apply the stratified sampling method to the random numbers so that U
i

and U
i+4
are transformed to random numbers V
i
and V
i+4
that are uniformly
distributed over the interval ((i1)/4, i/4), i = 1, 2, 3, 4. In each of the four
quartiles, a smaller value of U results in a smaller value of V.

Step 3: Compute 8 standard normal random variates by Z
i
= N
1
(V
i
), where N
1
is
the inverse of the cumulative standard normal distribution function.

Michael draws the following 8 uniform (0, 1) random numbers:

i 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
U
i
0.4880 0.7894 0.8628 0.4482 0.3172 0.8944 0.5013 0.3015

Find the difference between the largest and the smallest simulated normal random
variates.

(A) 0.35

(B) 0.78

(C) 1.30

(D) 1.77

(E) 2.50

138

The following transformation in McDonald (2006, page 632),

1
100
i
i u +
, i = 1, 2, 3, , 100,
is now changed to

or 4
1
4
i i
i U
+
+
, i = 1, 2, 3, 4.

Since the smallest Z comes from the first quartile, it must come from U
1
or U
5
.
Since U
5
< U
1
, we use U
5
to compute the smallest Z:
V
5
=
4
3172 . 0 1 1 +
= 0.0793,
Z
5
= N
1
(0.0793) = N
1
(0.9207) = 1.41.

Since the largest Z comes from the fourth quartile, it must come from U
4
and U
8
.
Since U
4
> U
8
, we use U
4
to compute the largest Z:
V
4
=
4
4482 . 0 1 4 +
= 0.86205 ~ 0.8621,
Z
4
= N
1
(0.8621) = 1.09.

The difference between the largest and the smallest normal random variates is
Z
4
Z
5
=1.09 (1.41) = 2.50.
Remark:
The simulated standard normal random variates are as follows:

i 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
U
i
0.4880 0.7894 0.8628 0.4482 0.3172 0.8944 0.5013 0.3015
no stratified
sampling
0.030 0.804 1.093 0.130 0.476 1.250 0.003 0.520
V
i
0.1220 0.4474 0.7157 0.8621 0.0793 0.4736 0.6253 0.8254
Z
i
1.165 0.132 0.570 1.090 1.410 0.066 0.319 0.936

Observe that there is no U in the first quartile, 4 Us in the second quartile, 1 U in the
third quartile, and 3 Us in the fourth quartile. Hence, the Vs seem to be more uniform.
139

For Questions 58 and 59, you are to assume the Black-Scholes framework.

Let ( ) C K denote the Black-Scholes price for a 3-month K-strike European call option on
a nondividend-paying stock.

Let

( ) C K denote the Monte Carlo price for a 3-month K-strike European call option on
the stock, calculated by using 5 random 3-month stock prices simulated under the risk-
neutral probability measure.

You are to estimate the price of a 3-month 42-strike European call option on the stock
using the formula
C*(42) =

(42) C + |[C(40)

(40) C ],
where the coefficient | is such that the variance of C*(42) is minimized.

You are given:
(i) The continuously compounded risk-free interest rate is 8%.
(ii) C(40) = 2.7847.
(iii) Both Monte Carlo prices,

(40) C and

## (42), C are calculated using the

following 5 random 3-month stock prices:
33.29, 37.30, 40.35, 43.65, 48.90

58. Based on the 5 simulated stock prices, estimate |.

(A) Less than 0.75

(B) At least 0.75, but less than 0.8

(C) At least 0.8, but less than 0.85

(D) At least 0.85, but less than 0.9

(E) At least 0.9

59. Based on the 5 simulated stock prices, compute C*(42).

(A) Less than 1.7

(B) At least 1.7, but less than 1.9

(C) At least 1.9, but less than 2.2

(D) At least 2.2, but less than 2.6

(E) At least 2.6
140

Var[C*(42)] = Var[

(42)] C + |
2
Var[

(40)] C 2|Cov[

(42) C ,

(40) C ],
the polynomial is attained at
| = Cov[

(40) C ,

(42) C ]/Var[

(40)] C .

For a pair of random variables X and Y, we estimate the ratio, Cov[X, Y]/Var[X], using the
formula

1 1
2 2 2
1 1
( )( )
( )
n n
i i i i
i i
n n
i i
i i
X X Y Y X Y nXY
X X X nX
= =
= =

=

.
We now treat the payoff of the 40-strike option (whose correct price, C(40), is known) as
X, and the payoff of the 42-strike option as Y. We do not need to discount the payoffs
because the effect of discounting is canceled in the formula above.

Simulated S(0.25) max(S(0.25) 40, 0) max(S(0.25) 42, 0)
33.29 0 0
37.30 0 0
40.35 0.35 0
43.65 3.65 1.65
48.90 8.9 6.9

We have , 58 . 2
5
9 . 8 65 . 3 35 . 0
=
+ +
= X , 71 . 1
5
9 . 6 65 . 1
=
+
= Y
, 655 . 92 9 . 8 65 . 3 35 . 0
2 2 2
1
2
= + + =

=
n
i
i
X and 4325 . 67 9 . 6 9 . 8 65 . 1 65 . 3
1
= + =

=
n
i
i i
Y X .

So, the estimate for the minimum-variance coefficient | is

2
67.4325 5 2.58 1.71
0.764211
92.655 5 2.58

=

.

Remark: The estimate for the minimum-variance coefficient | can be obtained by using
the statistics mode of a scientific calculator very easily. In the following we use TI30X
IIB as an illustration.

Step 1: Press [2nd][DATA] and select 2-VAR.

Step 2: Enter the five data points by the following keystroke:

141

[ENTER][DATA] 0 0 0 0 0.35 0 3.65 1.65 8.9 6.9 [Enter]

Step 3: Press [STATVAR] and look for the value of a.

Step 4: Press [2nd][STATVAR] and select Y to exit the statistics mode.
You can also find X , Y ,

=
n
i
i i
Y X
1
,

=
n
i
i
X
1
2
etc in [STATVAR] too.

Below are keystrokes for TI30XS multiview

Step 1: Enter the five data points by the following keystrokes:

[DATA] 0 0 0.35 3.65 8.9 0 0 0 1.65 6.9 [Enter]
Step 2: Press [2nd][STAT] and select 2-VAR.

Step 3: Select L1 and L2 for x and y data. Then select Calc and [ENTER]

Step 4: Look for the value of a by scrolling down.

The plain-vanilla Monte Carlo estimates of the two call option prices are:

For K = 40: e
0.08 0.25
=
+ +
5
9 . 8 65 . 3 35 . 0
2.528913
For K = 42: e
0.08 0.25
=
+
5
9 . 6 65 . 1
1.676140

The minimum-variance control variate estimate is
C*(42) =

(42) C + |[C(40)

(40) C ]
= 1.6761 + 0.764211 (2.7847 2.5289)
= 1.872.

142

60. The short-rate process {r(t)} in a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model follows

dr(t) = [0.011 0.1r(t)]dt + 0.08 dZ(t),

where {Z(t)} is a standard Brownian motion under the true probability measure.

For t T s , let ( , , ) P r t T denote the price at time t of a zero-coupon bond that pays 1
at time T, if the short-rate at time t is r.

You are given:
(i) The Sharpe ratio takes the form

(ii)

for each r > 0.

Find the constant c.

(A) 0.02
(B) 0.07
(C) 0.12
(D) 0.18
(E) 0.24
) (t r
. ) , ( r c t r = |
1 . 0 )] 0, , ( ln[
1
lim =

T r P
T
T
143

From the stochastic differential equation,
a(b r) = 0.011 0.1r;
hence,
a = 0.1 and b = 0.11.
Also, o = 0.08.

Let y(r, 0, T) be the continuously compounded yield rate of P(r, 0, T), i.e.,
e
y(r, 0, T)T
= P(r, 0, T).
Then condition (ii) is
lim ( , 0, )
T
y r T

=
ln ( , 0, )
lim
T
P r T
T

= 0.1.

According to lines 10 to 12 on page 788 of McDonald (2006),
lim ( , 0, )
T
y r T

=
2

ab
a + |

= ,
where | is a positive constant such that the Sharpe ratio takes the form

Hence,
.
We now solve for :

Condition (i) is

Thus,
c = | / o
= 0.01909 / 0.08
= 0.2386.

2 2
2
( ) 2
ab
a a + + | | o
. / ) , ( o | | r t r =
2 2
) 08 . 0 ( 2 ) 1 . 0 ( 1 . 0
) 11 . 0 )( 1 . 0 ( 2
1 . 0
+ +
=
| |
|
01909 . 0
0356 . 0 ) 1 . 0 ( 44 . 0
0128 . 0 ) 1 . 0 ( 0484 . 0 ) 1 . 0 ( 44 . 0 ) 1 . 0 (
22 . 0 ) 08 . 0 ( 2 ) 1 . 0 ( ) 1 . 0 (
2 2
2 2
=
=
+ = +
= + +
|
|
| | |
| |
. ) , ( r c t r = |
144

Remarks: (i) The answer can be obtained by trial-and-error. There is no need to solve
(ii) If your textbook is an earlier printing of the second edition, you will find the
corrected formulas in
http://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/mcdonald/htm/p780-88.pdf
(iii) Let
1
( , , ) ln ( , , ) y r t T P r t T
T t
=

.
We shall show that
= .
Under the CIR model, the zero-coupon bond price is of the affine form
P(r, t, T) = A(t, T)e
B(t, T)r
.
Hence,

1
( , , ) ln ( , ) ( , )
r
y r t T A t T B t T
T t T t
= +

. (1)

Observe that
)
`

+ +

+
+

=
(

+ +
=

+
t T
e a a
t T
ab
e a
e
t T
ab
T t A
t T
t T
t T
t T a
] 2 ) 1 )( ln[(
2
2 ln 2
2 ) 1 )( (
2
ln
) (
2
) , ( ln
1
) (
2
) (
2 / ) )( (
2
| |
o
| o
|

where > 0. By applying lHpitals rule to the last term above, we get

( ) ( )
( )
( ) ( )
ln[( )( 1) 2] ( )
lim lim
( )( 1) 2
( )
lim
( )(1 ) 2
( )
( )(1 0) 2 0
.
T t T t
T t
T T
T t T t
T
a e a e
T t
a e
a
a e e
a
a

+ + +
=

+ +
+
=
+ +
+
=
+ +
=
| |
|
|
|
|
|

So,

2 2
) (

2

0
2
) , ( ln
1
lim
o
| |
o

=
(

+
+ =

a ab a ab
T t A
t T
T
.

We now consider the last term in (1). Since
lim ( , , )
T
y r t T

2 2
2
( ) 2
ab
a a + + | | o
145

,
2 ) 1 )( (
) 1 ( 2
2 ) 1 )( (
) 1 ( 2
) , (
) ( ) (
) (
) (
) (
t T t T
t T
t T
t T
e e a
e
e a
e
T t B

+ +

=
+ +

=
| |

we have

2
) , ( lim
+
=

| a
T t B
T

and the limit of the second term in (1) is 0. Gathering all the results above,
2
( )
lim ( , , )
T
ab a
y r t T

=
|
o
,
where

2 2
2 ) ( o | + = a .

To obtain the expression in McDonald (2006), consider

2 2
2 2
( ) [( ) ] ( 2)

( )
ab a a ab a ab
a a
a
+
= =
+ +
+
| | |
| |
o o |
.
Thus we have
=
2

ab
a + |

= .
Note that this long term interest rate does not depend on r or on t.
lim ( , , )
T
y r t T

2 2
2
( ) 2
ab
a a + + | | o
146

61. Assume the Black-Scholes framework.

You are given:

(i) S(t) is the price of a stock at time t.

(ii) The stock pays dividends continuously at a rate proportional to its price. The
dividend yield is 1%.

(iii) The stock-price process is given by
) ( d 25 . 0 d 05 . 0
) (
) ( d
t Z t
t S
t S
+ =
where {Z(t)} is a standard Brownian motion under the true probability
measure.

(iv) Under the risk-neutral probability measure, the mean of Z(0.5) is 0.03.

Calculate the continuously compounded risk-free interest rate.

(A) 0.030
(B) 0.035
(C) 0.040
(D) 0.045
(E) 0.050
147

Let o, o, and o be the stocks expected rate of (total) return, dividend yield, and
volatility, respectively.
From (ii), o = 0.01.
From (iii), o o = 0.05; hence, o = 0.06.
Also from (iii), o = 0.25.

Thus, the Sharpe ratio is

0.06
0.24 4
0.25
r r
r
o
q
o

= = = . (1)

According to Section 20.5 in McDonald (2006), the stochastic process { ( )} Z t

defined by
( ) ( ) Z t Z t t q = +

(2)
is a standard Brownian motion under the risk-neutral probability measure; see, in
particular, the third paragraph on page 662. Thus,
E* 0 )] (
~
[ = t Z , (3)
where the asterisk signifies that the expectation is taken with respect to the risk-neutral
probability measure.

The left-hand side of equation (3) is
E*[Z(t)] + qt = E*[Z(t)] + (0.24 4 ) r t (4)
by (1). With t = 0.5 and applying condition (iii), we obtain from (3) and (4) that
0.03 + (0.24 4r)(0.5) = 0,
yielding r = 0.045.

Remark In Section 24.1 of McDonald (2006), the Sharpe ratio is not a constant but
depends on time t and the short-rate. Equation (2) becomes
) (
~
t Z = Z(t)
}
t
0
|[r(s), s]ds. (5)
{Z(t)} is a standard Brownian motion under the true probability measure, and { ( )} Z t

is a
standard Brownian motion under the risk-neutral probability measure. Note that in (5)
there is a minus sign, instead of a plus sign as in (2); this is due to the minus sign in
(24.1).
148

62. Assume the Black-Scholes framework.

Let S(t) be the time-t price of a stock that pays dividends continuously at a rate
proportional to its price.

You are given:
(i)
d ( )
( )
S t
S t
= dt + 0.4d ( ) Z t

,
where { ( )} Z t

## is a standard Brownian motion under the risk-neutral probability

measure;

(ii) for 0 s t s T, the time-t forward price for a forward contract that delivers the
square of the stock price at time T is

F
t,T
(S
2
) = S
2
(t)exp[0.18(T t)].

Calculate .

(A) 0.01

(B) 0.04

(C) 0.07

(D) 0.10

(E) 0.40

149

By comparing the stochastic differential equation in (i) with equation (20.26) in
McDonald (2006), we have
= r o
and
o = 0.4.

The time-t prepaid forward price for the forward contract that delivers S
2
at time T is
= ) (
2
,
S F
P
T t
e
r(T t)
F
t,T
(S
2
) = S
2
(t)exp[(0.18 r)(T t)].

The prepaid forward price is the price of a derivative security which does not pay
dividends. Thus, it satisfies the Black-Scholes partial differential equation (21.11),
rV
s
V
s
s
V
s r
t
V
=
c
c
+
c
c
+
c
c
2
2
2 2
2
1
) ( o .
The partial derivatives of V(s, t) = s
2
exp[(0.18 r)(T t)], t T, for the partial
differential equation are:
V
t
= (r 0.18)V(s, t),
V
s
= 2sexp[(0.18 r)(T t)] =
2 ( , ) V s t
s
,
V
ss
= 2exp[(0.18 r)(T t)] =
2
2 ( , ) V s t
s
.
Substituting these derivatives into the partial differential equation yields
2 2
2
2 ( , ) 1 2 ( , )
( 0.18) ( , ) ( ) ( , )
2
V s t V s t
r V s t r s s rV s t
s
s
o + + =

2
( 0.18) 2( ) r r r o + + =
r o =
2
0.18
2
o
= 0.01.

Alternatively, we compare the formula in condition (ii) (with t = 0) with McDonalds
formula (20.31) (with a = 2) to obtain the equation
0.18 = 2(r o) + 2(2 1)o
2
,
which again yields
r o =
2
0.18
2
o
.

150

Remarks:
(i) An easy way to obtain (20.31) is to use the fact
F
0,T
(S
a
) = E*[[ ( )] ]
a
S T ,
where the asterisk signifies that the expectation is taken with respect to the risk-neutral
probability measure. Under the risk-neutral probability measure, ln[S(T)/S(0)] is a
normal random variable with mean (r o o
2
)T and variance o
2
T. Thus, by (18.13)
or by the moment-generating function formula for a normal random variable, we have
F
0,T
(S
a
) = E*[[ ( )] ]
a
S T
=
2
[ (0)] S exp[a(r o o
2
)T + a
2
o
2
T],
which is (20.31).

(ii) While the prepaid forward price satisfies the partial differential equation (21.11), the
forward price satisfies the partial differential equation (21.34). In other words,
substituting V(t, s) = s
2
exp[0.18(T t)] and its partial derivatives into (21.34) is a way to
obtain r o. Equation (21.34) is not in the current syllabus of Exam MFE/3F.

(iii) Another way to determine r o is to use the fact that, for a security that does not pay
dividends, its discounted price is a martingale. Thus, the stochastic process
2
,
{ ( ); 0 }
rt P
t T
e F S t T

s s

is a martingale. Because

2 2 0.18
,
( ) [ ( )]
rt P t rT
t T
e F S S t e e

= ,
the martingale condition is that

2 0
[ (0)] S e =
2 0.18
E*[[ ( )] ]
t
S t e

=
0.18 2
E*[[ ( )] ]
t
e S t

,
=
0.18t
e
2
[ (0)] S exp[2(r o o
2
)t + 2
2
o
2
t].
Thus, the martingale condition becomes
0 = 0.18t + 2(r o o
2
)t + 2
2
o
2
t,
r o =
2
0.18
2
o
.
This method is beyond the current syllabus of Exam MFE/3F.
151

63. Define

(i) W(t) = t
2
.

(ii) X(t) = [t], where [t] is the greatest integer part of t; for example, [3.14] = 3,
[9.99] = 9, and [4] = 4.

(iii) Y(t) = 2t + 0.9Z(t), where {Z(t): t > 0} is a standard Brownian motion.

Let ) (
2
U V
T
denote the quadratic variation of a process U over the time interval
[0, T].

Rank the quadratic variations of W, X and Y over the time interval [0, 2.4].

(A) ) (
2
4 . 2
W V < ) (
2
4 . 2
Y V < ) (
2
4 . 2
X V

(B) ) (
2
4 . 2
W V < ) (
2
4 . 2
X V < ) (
2
4 . 2
Y V

(C) ) (
2
4 . 2
X V < ) (
2
4 . 2
W V < ) (
2
4 . 2
Y V

(D) ) (
2
4 . 2
X V < ) (
2
4 . 2
Y V < ) (
2
4 . 2
W V

(E) None of the above.

152

For a process {U(t)}, the quadratic variation over [0, T], T > 0, can be calculated as
}
T
t U
0
2
)] ( d [ .

(i) Since
dW(t) = 2tdt,
we have
[dW(t)]
2
= 4t
2
(dt)
2

which is zero, because dt dt = 0 by (20.17b) on page 658 of McDonald (2006).
This means ) (
2
4 . 2
W V = 0 )] ( d [
4 . 2
0
2
=
}
t W .

(ii) X(t) = 0 for 0 s t < 1, X(t) = 1 for 1 s t < 2, X(t) = 2 for 2 s t < 3, etc.
For t 0, dX(t) = 0 except for the points 1, 2, 3, . At the points 1, 2, 3, , the
square of the increment is 1
2
= 1. Thus,

2
2.4
( ) V X

= 1 + 1 = 2.

(iii) By Its lemma,
dY(t) = 2dt + 0.9dZ(t).
By (20.17a, b, c) in McDonald (2006),
[dY(t)]
2
= 0.9
2
dt
Thus,

2.4 2.4
2 2
0 0
[d ( )] 0.9 d 0.81 2.4 1.944 Y t t = = =
} }
.
153

64. Let S(t) denote the time-t price of a stock. Let Y(t) = [S (t)]
2
. You are given

d ( )
( )
Y t
Y t
= 1.2dt 0.5dZ(t), Y(0) = 64,

where {Z(t): t > 0} is a standard Brownian motion.

Let (L, U) be the 90% lognormal confidence interval for S(2).

Find U.

(A) 27.97

(B) 33.38

(C) 41.93

(D) 46.87

(E) 53.35

154

For a given value of V(0), the solution to the stochastic differential equation

d ( )
( )
V t
V t
= dt + | dZ(t), t 0, (1)
is
V(t) = V(0) exp[( |
2
)t + | Z(t)], t 0. (2)
That formula (2) satisfies equation (1) is a consequence of Its Lemma. See also
Example 20.1 on p. 665 in McDonald (2006)

It follows from (2) that
Y(t) = 64exp[(1.2 (0.5)
2
t 0.5Z(t)] = 64exp[1.075t 0.5Z(t)].

Since Y(t) = [S(t)]
2
,
S(t) = 8exp[0.5375t 0.25Z(t)]. (3)

Because Z(2) ~ Normal(0, 2) and because N
1
(0.95) = 1.645, we have
Pr( 2 645 . 1 ) 2 ( 2 645 . 1 < < Z ) = 0.90.
Hence,
Pr ( (2) ) L S U < < = 0.90,
if
U = 8 exp(1.075 + 0.25 1.645 2 ) = 41.9315
and
L = 8 exp(1.075 0.25 1.645 2 ) = 13.1031.

Remarks: (i) It is more correct to write the probability as a conditional probability,
Pr(13.1031 < S(2) < 41.9315 | S(0) = 8) = 0.90.
(ii) The term confidence interval as used in Section 18.4 seems incorrect, because S(2)
is a random variable, not an unknown, but constant, parameter. The expression
Pr ( (2) ) L S U < < = 0.90
gives the probability that the random variable S(2) is between L and U, not the
confidence for S(2) to be between L and U.
(iii) By matching the right-hand side of (20.32) (with a = 2) with the right-hand side of
the given stochastic differential equation, we have o = 0.25 and o o = 0.56875. It
then follows from (20.29) that
S(t) = 8 exp[(0.56875 (0.25)
2
)t 0.25Z(t)],
which is (3) above.