Impressions after Iowa and New Hampshire

1) Ron Paul is doing the hardest thing to do in politics changing the composition of the electorate. Paul easily carried the first time participants in Iowa and first time GOP primary voters in New Hampshire. First time Iowa GOP caucus-goers (38%) Ron Paul Mitt Romney Rick Santorum Newt Gingrich Jon Huntsman Rick Perry Michele Bachmann 33% 17% 23% 11% 1% 10% 5% First time New Hampshire GOP primary voters (12%) 38% 24% 8% 3% 21% -2%

Most simply put, Ron Paul is not a Republican; he just chose to run in the Republican primary. Most of his supporters have weak to non-existent ties inside the Republican Party. Having said that, it also means our understanding of the exit polls needs to incorporate and filter in the impact of these Paul voters. So, for example, it is not a significant problem that Romney did not capture more than one-third of the Independent vote in New Hampshire, as the Independents are not the same profile of Independents who voted in 2000 or 2008. It would be interesting to run the New Hampshire exit polls dropping out the Paul voters and comparing the remaining interviews to past GOP primary exit polls in the state.

Impressions after Iowa and New Hampshire

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2) Historic turn-out is still historic turn-out. We have had two nominating contests in a row that have now produced the highest turn-out ever for Republicans. This field is generally weaker than in 2008, and the level of turn-out is a big deal which is being missed and underplayed by the press. High turn-out during the primary season is generally a harbinger of high turn-out in the general election. One needs to be constantly reminded of how significant the turn-out was in 2008. 1996 2000 2008 96,451 87,666 119,188 208,740 238,206 238,979 96.2 mill. 105.4 mill. 122.2 mill. 131.3 mill. Turn-out 2004 2012 122,255 248,497

Iowa GOP Caucus N.H. GOP Primary General Election

The fact that Republicans are so far showing up in greater numbers is important and encouraging for this fall.

3) One number that jumped off the exit poll to me was Romneys

percentage of the Republican vote (49%). As McCains pollster, lost to many in the euphoria of the 2000 New Hampshire primary night is that McCain, during a massive win, only carried Republicans by seven points. Romneys margins among actual Republicans are impressive, and they take on added importance as one heads to the first closed primary in Florida. It is worth tracking, so, we put the following table together from 2008.

Impressions after Iowa and New Hampshire

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John McCain Mitt Romney Mike Huckabee Rudy Giuliani Ron Paul Fred Thompson

2008 exit poll data by state among Republicans New Hampshire South Carolina Florida 34% 31% 33% 35% 15% 33% 13% 32% 15% 10% 2% 16% 5% 2% 2% 1% 17% 2%

4) The biggest story in the exit poll to me seems to have been largely

lost. Only one of the four candidates was broadly acceptable to the primary electorate Mitt Romney. Here are the numbers from New Hampshire. Satisfied if candidate wins nomination Satisfied Not satisfied Net Difference 61% 37% +24% 42% 56% -14% 36% 60% -24% 35% 63% -28%

Mitt Romney Ron Paul Rick Santorum Newt Gingrich

I sure hope in South Carolina they repeat this battery of questions about if you would be satisfied or not if each of the different candidates wins the nomination. The results in South Carolina to this question will be much more predictive moving forward than the New Hampshire results. New Hampshire is simply too different to have much bearing on what comes next, but the results to this set of questions in South Carolina would be enormously important and revealing. Importantly, nomination battles tend to narrow down, but sooner or later you cannot win unless you are broadly acceptable to a majority of Republican primary voters.
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