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ACCUMULATE
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Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code IT 216,134 1.0 1,247/903 202,784 1 16,466 4,967 TCS.BO TCS@IN
`1,104 `1,262
12 months
For 3QFY2012, TCS reported a modest set of numbers, in-line with streets expectations on the revenue and operating fronts; however, the company underperformed on the profit front due to huge forex loss. The major highlight of the result was that the addition of two new clients in the US$100mn plus revenue bracket. Management has highlighted that on an overall basis budgets for CY2012 are flat, with the deal pipeline remaining strong. TCS continues to remain our preferred pick along with HCL Tech in the IT pack. We recommend Accumulate on the stock. Quarterly highlights: For 3QFY2012, TCS posted revenue of US$2,586mn, up 2.4% qoq, majorly led by volume growth. INR revenue stood at `13,204cr, up 13.5% qoq. EBITDA and EBIT margin increased by 193bp and 214bp qoq to 31.0% and 29.2%, respectively, aided by 282bp qoq positive impact of INR depreciation against USD. PAT came in at `2,887cr, negatively impacted by forex loss of `300cr, which led to net loss of `92cr in other income. Outlook and valuation: Management indicated that it would hire 15,000 gross employees in 4QFY2012, which implies TCS exceeding its gross hiring target of 60,000 for FY2012 by ~6,000 employees. Even with aggressive hiring plans, management targets to maintain utilization levels excluding trainees at 82-84% in FY2012. Also, the company has already made offers to 43,600 freshers and expects joining ratio of ~70%, with most of them getting inducted in 2QFY2012 and 3QFY2012. The company bagged 10 large deals in 3QFY2012. Thus, over FY2011-13E, we expect TCSs revenue to post a 19.9% CAGR (USD terms), surpassing even the US$10bn revenue mark in FY2012 itself, after achieving the US$8bn milestone in FY2011. EBITDA and PAT are expected to grow at a CAGR of 25.3% and 20.6%, respectively, over FY2011-13E. We value TCS at 19.5x (40% premium to Sensex) FY2013E EPS of `64.7 with a target price of `1,262 and recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock. Key financials (Consolidated, IFRS)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EBITDA margin (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY2009* 27,813 21.9 5,172 3.0 25.8 26.4 41.8 13.8 33.0 28.9 7.7 29.7 FY2010* 30,028 8.0 6,873 32.9 28.9 35.1 31.4 10.3 32.8 28.8 6.9 23.9 FY2011 37,324 24.3 8,715 26.8 30.0 44.5 24.8 8.5 34.3 32.0 5.6 18.6 FY2012E 49,412 32.4 10,776 23.6 30.1 55.1 20.1 7.0 34.9 33.6 4.2 13.9 FY2013E 58,798 19.0 12,669 17.6 29.9 64.7 17.1 5.7 33.3 32.1 3.5 11.6
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 74.1 7.7 13.4 4.8
3m (3.3) (1.4)
Ankita Somani
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6819 ankita.somani@angelbroking.com
3QFY12 13,204 6,860 6,344 2,252 4,092 230 3,862 (92) 3,770 854 2,916 29 2,887 14.7 48.0 31.0 29.2 22.0
2QFY12 11,631 6,214 5,417 2,037 3,380 229 3,151 100 3,251 791 2,460 24 2,436 12.4 46.6 29.1 27.1 20.8
% chg (qoq) 13.5 10.4 17.1 10.6 21.1 0.7 22.5 16.0 7.9 18.5 24.1 18.5 18.5 147bp 193bp 214bp 125bp
3QFY11 9,663 5,150 4,513 1,596 2,917 186 2,732 182 2,914 549 2,365 19 2,346 12.0 46.7 30.2 28.3 23.8
% chg (yoy) 36.6 33.2 40.6 41.1 40.3 24.1 41.4 29.4 55.5 23.3 55.6 23.0 23.0 134bp 80bp 98bp (181)bp
9MFY12 35,632 18,954 16,678 6,175 10,503 664 9,839 296 10,136 2,351 7,784 81 7,703 39.4 46.8 29.5 27.6 21.4
9MFY11 27,166 14,559 12,607 4,498 8,109 509 7,600 309 7,909 1,497 6,412 78 6,335 32.4 46.4 29.9 28.0 23.1
% chg (yoy) 31.2 30.2 32.3 37.3 29.5 30.4 29.5 28.2 57.1 21.4 4.6 21.6 21.6 40bp (37)bp (36)bp (162)bp
Broad-based growth
For 3QFY2012, TCS reported modest performance with USD revenue at US$2,586mn, up 2.4% qoq, on the back of volume growth of 3.2% qoq and price realization growth of 1.98% qoq. USD revenue was negatively impacted by 210bp qoq due to cross-currency movement. Going ahead, the company expects pricing to remain stable. In constant currency (CC) terms, revenue came in at US$2,640mn, up 4.6% qoq. In INR terms, revenue came in at `13,204cr, up 13.5% qoq registering higher growth as against USD revenue due to qoq INR depreciation against USD in 3QFY2012. TCS has closed 10 large deals in 3QFY2012, of which three were from the U.S., four from Europe and the U.K. and the rest from emerging economies. These 10 deals span across industry segments two in banking, two in retail, and one each in manufacturing, hi-tech, insurance, life sciences, telecom and utilities.
6.3
(%)
5.7 4
Offshoring of volume (3.2% qoq growth in 2QFY2011), steep INR depreciation against USD and improvement in blended pricing (1.98% qoq) led to considerable INR revenue growth of 13.5% in 2QFY2012, offsetting the 0.6% qoq negative effect due to offshore effort mix shift.
(%)
8 6 4 2 0 (2) Volume Forex movement Pricing (0.6) Effort mix shift offshore Total revenue growth 3.2 2.0
TCSs performance during the quarter was backed by strong demand across all industry segments (excluding telecom and utilities). BFSI, TCSs anchor industry segment, continued to generate incremental revenue and reported 2.0% qoq growth. The companys growth was led by the media and entertainment and retail and distribution industry segments, revenue of which grew by 7.3% and 4.1% qoq, respectively. Other segments such as travel and hospitality, manufacturing, hi-tech and lifesciences and healthcare registered revenue growth of 2.4% qoq each. Revenue from energy and utilities posted a 2.3% qoq decline due to high base effect as this segment registered double-digit growth in 2QFY2012. Revenue from telecom remained sluggish during the quarter, but management has indicated that it is witnessing transformation deals in the telecom industry, majorly in emerging economies, and expects revenue from this segment to pick up from now on.
% chg (qoq) 2.0 2.4 (4.3) 2.4 4.1 2.4 (2.3) 7.3 2.4
% chg (yoy) 17.1 30.7 1.4 22.9 36.1 34.8 12.4 15.4 42.3
Service line wise, global consulting and infrastructure services emerged as the primary growth drivers for the company by posting whopping 10.3% and 13.1% qoq growth in revenue, respectively. Revenue from enterprise solutions, assurance services, BPO and application development and maintenance (ADM) grew by 5.2%, 2.4%, 1.5% and 0.8% qoq, respectively.
% chg (qoq) 0.8 (4.1) 5.2 2.4 (1.8) 13.1 10.3 (2.7) 1.5
% chg (yoy) 17.9 0.1 43.2 29.1 15.6 21.8 46.9 14.6 14.3
Geography wise, growth was witnessed across all geographies except Middle East and Africa (MEA). Revenue from developed economies such as U.S., Latin America and Continental Europe grew by 2.2%, 5.9% and 6.5%, respectively. Emerging economies such India and Asia posted 3.7% and 3.8% qoq growth in revenue, respectively.
(%)
80 78 76 74 72 3QFY11 77.1
For 3QFY2012, utilization level including and excluding trainees declined by 240bp and 110bp qoq to 74.0% and 82.0%, respectively, due to strong hiring done in 2QFY2012 and 3QFY2012.
Margins enhance
TCSs EBITDA and EBIT margin increased by 193bp and 214bp qoq to 31.0% and 29.2%, respectively, aided by INR depreciation against USD, which offsetted the negative impact due to lower productivity and higher SG&A costs.
(%)
28 27 26 25 24
3QFY11
1QFY12
3QFY12
EBIT margin witnessed a 282bp positive impact due to INR depreciation. This effect was slightly overshadowed by the negative impact of 10bp and 94bp qoq due to effort shift to GDC, lower productivity and higher SG&A. All in all, the companys EBIT margin improved by 214bp qoq during the quarter.
(bp)
150 75 0 (75) (150) Rupee dep/(app) Provision for bad debt (10) (94) Shift to GDC Others Productivity and SG&A Total impact (10) 46
234 61 63 51 16 9 959 35
quantum. Thus, growth momentum for the company is expected to remain intact. Accordingly, over FY2011-13E, we expect TCSs revenue to post a 19.9% CAGR (USD terms), surpassing even the US$10bn revenue mark in FY2012 itself, after achieving the US$8bn milestone in FY2011. On account of tailwinds such as 1) strong growth even on the back of 29% growth in FY2011, 2) headroom to scale up utilization levels, 3) SGA expense optimization and 4) INR depreciation as a strong lever, we expect the company to absorb the impact of wage hikes gradually. We expect the EBIT margins downside to be limited to 32bp yoy and settle at 27.9% by FY2013. Managements commentary has turned slightly cautious for the discretionary spend coming in and it is witnessing delays in ramp ups. However, no project cuts are being seen. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 17.1x FY2013E EPS. We value TCS at 19.5x (i.e., at 40% premium to Sensex) FY2013E EPS of `64.7 with a target price of `1,262 and recommend Accumulate on the stock.
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Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation ratio(x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BVPS Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total assets Per share data (`) EPS Cash EPS Dividend Book value Dupont analysis Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) EBIT margin (EBIT/Sales) Asset turnover ratio (Sales/Assets) Leverage ratio (Assets/Equity) Operating ROE Return ratios (%) RoCE (pre-tax) Angel RoIC RoE Turnover ratios(x) Asset turnover (fixed assets) Receivables days 7.4 81 7.2 71 7.2 80 7.5 77 7.7 77 28.9 33.5 33.0 28.8 41.5 32.8 32.0 41.1 34.3 33.6 42.8 34.9 32.1 43.1 33.3 0.9 0.9 0.2 1.2 1.5 33.4 0.9 1.0 0.3 1.1 1.3 33.3 0.8 1.1 0.3 1.1 1.3 34.8 0.8 1.0 0.3 1.2 1.3 35.2 0.7 1.1 0.3 1.2 1.3 33.7 26.4 29.4 8.2 80.0 35.1 38.8 11.0 107.0 44.5 48.2 23.4 129.8 55.1 59.9 26.9 157.9 64.7 70.7 28.1 194.6 41.8 37.6 13.8 0.7 7.7 29.7 9.3 31.4 28.5 10.3 1.0 6.9 23.9 7.5 24.8 22.9 8.5 2.1 5.6 18.6 6.4 20.1 18.4 7.0 2.4 4.2 13.9 5.0 17.1 15.6 5.7 2.5 3.5 11.6 4.0 FY2009*^ FY2010* FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
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E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
TCS No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
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