Ian Pearson A trip to the future

Economic problems?
1.3Tn UK debt (200k per high rate taxpayer) will take decades to pay off. But most people are still in work and a spending backlog is growing so recovery could be swift Background growth potential is still there with new tech and new markets coming, and the crisis will accelerate transition to a better economy With poor management practices and inefficient companies purged, and society having re-appraised core values, the future might be pretty good.

Accelerating business life

how can we recover a sensible work-life balance?

You

Faster and Faster

Your Competitors

You cant capture market share by working harder since your competitors are too

Population churn
Re-migration Ageing workforce Emigration Inter-generational conflict

Mobility and volatility Immigration

Brain drain

Will this lead to retirement home UK & Ireland?

Inter-generational conflict
Ageing population and increasing life-spans
will cause big pensions problem Fewer young people will have to pay more taxes They will also see older people holding most political power The able young might emigrate Remigration of immigrant populations as their homelands get richer Retirement home UK could be left with the old, the unemployed and the unskilled

The web is now past critical mass

Kick off zone

Web presence
Personal sites & blogs Dot coms Portals Customer based value Socialising/dating

Mash sites On-line games Virtual environments

Semantic web

2000

2005

2010

2015

If it wont work now, it never will!

AI & Robotics

Tomorrow
Human

Far future

Today
Human Machine

Machine The information economy will move into the machine world.

OB1 - optical brain mk1 A conscious computer

1 trillion neurons in 100ml gel 1 billion times more powerful than brain, with up to 2 million emotions & unlimited senses Could be fully sentient Could be benign or malicious Can be linked to other devices via the net Optical hormone playback Sensory stimulus

Gel

Sensory echo

Internal sensing
sensory encoding

Neural response

Neural interference processing vortex

neural vortex generation

Smart bacteria
could exist in both real world and cyberspace

Custom DNA

1 micron

Molecular circuitry assembled by cell

Bacteria linked together via infrared, to make sophisticated self organising circuits

Care economy
Value of physical/ intellectual work Value of community & social wellbeing

time
More face to face interaction, needing emotional and human skills This may favour women and older people. Companies need to adapt to work more closely with the community.

Revaluation of human skills

Today, people often work as smart machines Tomorrow, they will have to focus on interpersonal skills Interpersonal skills increase as people age, allowing older people to do useful work We will see more status for women too

Skills for the job the feminisation of work

Agricultural Age Strength Dexterity Hunting Fighting Navigation Team Working Industrial Age Strength Dexterity Engineering Fighting Political Intellect Management Leadership Information Age Engineering Global politics Peacekeeping Intellect Creativity Design Management Administration Leadership Marketing & sales Networking HR Care Age Caring Networking Human interfacing Community Empathy Counselling Peacekeeping Leadership Motivation Marketing & sales Creativity

Future office
AI and robotics will change the whole
nature of work and society

People will focus on interpersonal

services, much of it face to face, so we will need more meeting facilities telework centres, binding local communities together

Other work can be done from home or

Telework centre

This futuristic view is out of date already. We will actually need more meeting places and fewer computers. Centres will double as both work and social places.

Any questions yet?

Maslows hierarchy of needs: Where the value is

Self actualisation Esteem Social Safety/Security Physiological Self actualisation Esteem Social Safety/Security Physiological

Fastest market growth is at the top of the hierarchy, heading already towards care economy

Business will change faster

Company structures are changing fast Elite wont want to be employees Ageing workforce

You should not focus on being best-in-class. You need agility. Optimisation is only a good strategy in a stable environment.

Increasing regulation
Technology Industry convergence change Ongoing Increasing globalisation social More potential engineering to exploit Need to control Improving pressures on Increasing focus surveillance environment on quality of life capability

Winners and losers

Centralised manufacturing High Street shops Knowledge based jobs Bricklaying/plumbing etc Administration Architecture Driving Machine operation Companies Finance Agents IT Energy production Desktop manufacturing Try-on outlets Human skill based jobs Modular prefab construction Personal services Virtual world design Advice/Counselling Caring Entertainment, sport, arts Freelancing Social organisations Health care Regulation Law

More winners and losers

Real Full time work Traditionally male jobs Global food production Music industry Content sales Speed and agility Middle age Off the shelf Unskilled work Highly skilled work Virtual/dual Multiple employers Traditionally female jobs Local food production Direct music sales Loss leader for experience Experience and wisdom Older people Personalisation Personality based work Consultancy and guidance

Creative remuneration
Rapidly growing design-differentiated market

Pay Top 1% Bottom 99%

the elite really understand what the human market wants

Globalisation reduces most people to a commodity

Machine intelligence erodes the value of most commodity level skills

2005

2010

2015

2020

Globalisation
Brazil, Russia, India & China are rising, but the information economy wont last for ever
Machine intelligence changes nature of work. Increasingly fierce competition from high education, low wage economies Work dominated by face to face interaction so cant be done remotely Care economy

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Environment: Be concerned but Dont Panic

Expect many new technologies to help, but human footprint increases even faster as nations develop economically. Increasing environmental activism will often make things worse

Environmental quality

Global average wealth

Technology (will probably

save the day, but no guarantee)

2005

2010

2015

2020

Transport sustainability
we need more advanced tech, not to go backwards 0-60 in 4s, quiet, zero emissions Slow, dirty, dangerous, expensive

Sustainability & quality of life

Slow, dirty, expensive & inefficient

Fast, clean, cheap safe, efficient

Technology level

Mobility
Electronically driven cars operated as public
fleets could provide high social inclusivity and mobility while greatly reducing congestion, accidents, and carbon emissions. You would simply ask the computer for a car to somewhere and it would pick you up and take you there safely and efficiently, just like a taxi, but without the driver.

Solar Farming
Solar farms

Sahara: 9M sq km Solar power = 8.5kWh/

Supercables Hydrogen Electricity

sq m/day at 12% efficiency Over 600TW capability Total human usage today = 13.5TW The Sahara alone could supply 40x more energy than we need for the whole planet

Global land management

With increasing global wealth, we need to make much more effort to use limited land on the basis of global needs. i.e. use farmland to grow food and desert for energy Abandon biofuels

Physical infrastructure Nature Energy Housing Food

Technology progress gives us more function for less resource

But it isnt over yet!!!

Rapid obsolescence
Impact = device population x device impact Device size and power consumption slow Number of devices

fast

time
The faster we go through the obsolescence cycle, the smaller the overall environmental impact

Electronic jewellery
Social status Medical monitoring, alarms Communication, data distribution Sensing Mobile website Networking Digital image augmentation Digital bubble Decoration Identification, security Tribal signalling

Any form

Miniaturisation will bring everyday IT down to lapel-pin size. Combinations of devices can monitor and relay a wide variety of data.

Any more questions?

Jewellery nets

Wireless links Wireless LAN link to web and between clusters

Direct inter-device networking will become an important alternative internet platform

Digital bubble

Digital bubbles will change how people network and socialise by enabling intelligent exchange of appropriate information and filtering out junk

Active skin
Epidermis

Dermis

Wearable layer Detachable layer Transfer layer Mid-term layer Skin Permanent layer

Skin-based electronics can link blood chemistry and nerve signals to external computers and systems Even thought recognition is starting to appear now
Emotiv Epoc headset for computer games

34

Display evolution

80 inch display, 180

Will also see lots of very large wall displays, coffee table displays, digital windows, recipe tablets etc. All context aware.

Active contact lens

(Pearson 1991)

laser focusing micromirror lasers Gaze direction sensor

Resolution limited by the eye Allows natural distance perception Tiny environmental footprint
Laser Processing

retina
Laser

Micromirror Inductive power supply Comms & ctrl

Gaze direction sensor

Diamond Laser substrate

Virtual worlds
adding value to the real world

Nervous system links will give a full sensory experience

Duality
People and buildings can
emit an interactive digital aura over wireless LANs appearance

This gives a dual

Can blend games into real world You can choose how you appear Everyone can see the world differently Fight off aliens while your partner chooses an outfit.

Digital mirror, active make-up

Can show yourself as you want to be seen, not as you are You can choose how each person sees you Can be used with active makeup, to change look all through the day

The new high street

Full web presence Location based overlay Amazon Froogle Tesco Amazon Waterstones eBay You?

Next

Dabs eBay

Physical

M&S

WH Smith

Dixons

Virtuous circle for web development

Ease of use Cross gadget integration High speed mobility & positioning Ubiquity More social entrepreneurs

Improving interfaces & displays

Now default platform

Sociopolitical Power Domains

Tribalism is built in to human nature and fits the web perfectly. Expect Local Community political platforms govt Networks to migrate onto the web, where grassroots power can be mobilised quickly. Geographic Cyberspace World
Network Communities

Global government Geographic tribalism

Social world

Values tribalism

Future power will be web based

Country A Cybercommunity X

Global pressure groups will be able to apply pressure instantaneously, using billions of peoples economic and IT muscle. Will it be grass roots democracy or mob rule?

Country B

Cybercommunity Y

Country C

Cybercommunity Z

Real World

Cyberspace

The Stepford Society

making it almost impossible for generally lawabiding people to commit an offence
Road tolling via satellite tracking Speed cameras everywhere DNA Databases Identity cards 25% of the worlds CCTV Face recognition systems Tax enforcement via integrated databases Speed limits built into car management system Government knows everywhere you go Extensive & permanent police records

Anti-tech backlash

One stop shop for all government data Monitoring of e-cash Number-plate recognition Abuse of Millimetre wave cameras

Extensive monitoring of all electronic activity

Criminals will just ignore these systems, using stolen phones, LCD plates, ID theft Criminals will have total freedom, we will have none

Privacy
Surveillance is already very intense, especially in the UK, but people are getting increasingly upset about the erosion of privacy and freedom If there is a backlash against it, you dont want your company to be on the wrong side of the fence

Thank you
idpearson@gmail.com www.futurizon.com