Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Stephen Perno
Kaitlin Cherundolo
May 8, 2009
Table of Contents
Table of Contents.................................................................................................................2
Table of Figures...................................................................................................................4
Introduction..........................................................................................................................5
VIX: The Fear Index............................................................................................................5
What is the VIX?.................................................................................................................5
History of the VIX...............................................................................................................6
Calculating the VIX.............................................................................................................6
Interpreting the Numbers...................................................................................................13
Reputation as the Fear Index..........................................................................................13
Excel Graph Data: Correlative and Predictive Fit............................................................14
Extension to Other Volatility Indexes............................................................................17
The Volatility Smile..........................................................................................................17
Impact of Time to Expiry on Volatility.............................................................................24
Correlation Between % Short and Bond Rating................................................................26
Measuring the Problem......................................................................................................27
Dollar Error....................................................................................................................27
Minimax Dollar Error....................................................................................................27
Minimax Percentage Error.............................................................................................27
Pricing............................................................................................................................28
Stock Market Crash of 1987..........................................................................................28
Implied Binomial Trees.....................................................................................................28
Binomial Trees According to Black-Scholes.................................................................28
Market Behavior Tree....................................................................................................29
Uses of the Implied Binomial Tree Model....................................................................30
Conclusion.........................................................................................................................32
Bibliography......................................................................................................................34
Addendum..........................................................................................................................35
Table of Figures
Figure 1: At-The-Money Strike Price Table........................................................................9
Figure 2: Mid-Quote List and Left Term Calculation Table.............................................10
Figure 3: VIX vs. S&P 500Correlation.........................................................................14
Figure 4: VIX vs. S&P 500 (SPX) During LTCM and Russian Debt Crisis.....................14
Figure 5: Negative Correlation of VIX with S&P 500 (SPX)...........................................15
Figure 6: 2008-2009 VIX vs. S&P 500.............................................................................16
Figure 7: VIX Value vs. S&P 500 Value: Prediction........................................................16
Figure 8: Volatility Smile Graph.......................................................................................18
Figure 9: Microsoft Option Data.......................................................................................18
Figure 10: Microsoft Volatility Smile...............................................................................19
Figure 11: Citigroup Option Data......................................................................................19
Figure 12: Citigroup Volatility Smile................................................................................20
Figure 13: JP Morgan Option Data....................................................................................20
Figure 14: JP Morgan Volatility Smile..............................................................................20
Figure 15: General Motors Option Data............................................................................21
Figure 16: General Motors Volatility Smile......................................................................21
Figure 17: Amazon Option Data........................................................................................22
Figure 18: Amazon Volatility Smile..................................................................................22
Figure 19: Exxon Mobil Option Data................................................................................23
Figure 20: Exxon Mobil Volatility Smile..........................................................................23
Figure 21: JP Morgan Volatility Smile-- Impact of Time to Expiry.................................24
Figure 22: VOD Implied Volatility...................................................................................25
Introduction
Volatility has played a major role in shaping the stock market behavior amongst
particular markets like the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and others. Calculating the implied
volatility used to be done solely using the Black-Scholes method. The VIX, a ticker
symbol for the Chicago Boards of Option Exchange Volatility Index, and the volatility
smile, a characteristic of implied volatility plots in which out-of-the-money options
exhibit higher volatilities than at-the-money options, they both go against the Black
Scholes model to create the formula or method to measure the quantity or estimate the
behavior. This paper will intend on investigating those methodologies, by calculating the
VIX value step by step and studying the factors that affect the implied volatility in the
market today and how to account for that through modeling, and embarking on new
territory on volatility smiles and their relationship to other financial concepts like the
percent short and bond rating of a company.
2
= 2i e RT Q( K i )
1
T i Ki
T K0
where = VIX/100 and therefore VIX = 100*, and T is the maturity of the options. The
options can either be near-term options or next-term options. The difference between
them is that [n]ear-term options must have at least one week to expiration; a
requirement intended to minimize pricing anomalies that might occur close to expiration.
When the near-term options have less than a week to expiration, VIX rolls to the
second and third [] contract months.3 Going back to the formula, F is the forward
index level from the index prices or the spot (current) price of the index in question. Ki is
the strike price of i-th out-of-the-money option; it is a call if Ki > F and a put if Ki < F.
Ki is the interval between the strike prices calculated by halving the difference of the
two strikes surrounding Ki as shown here:
K i =
K i +1 K i 1
2
K0, in particular, is the first strike below the spot price F. R is the risk-free interest rate
and Q(Ki) is the mid-quote price for each out-of-the-money option with strike Ki, whether
it is for a call or a put.
There are two components to every option (call, put, etc.), the bid and ask prices. To
retrieve a certain overall price for an option, the mid-quote price, and an average of the
bid and ask prices must be done. The mid quote price of an option depends on the
location of the strike with respect to K0. Out-of-the-money puts come from strikes that
are less than K0 while out-of-the-money calls come from strikes that are greater than K0.
The mid-quote price for the puts is the put price, calculated from the bid price and the ask
price and the mid-quote price for the calls is the call price, also calculated from the bid
and ask price. For the strike K0 the mid quote price is the average of the call and put
prices both calculated from the bid and ask prices.
For example, consider a strike K0 of $920. Since K0 is the strike closest to the spot price
F, one must consider the bid and ask prices for both the call option and for the put option.
With that in mind, compute the mid-quote price for the call where the bid price is $35.20
and the ask price is $39.10.
35 .20 + 39 .10
= 37 .15
2
Now, compute the mid-quote price for the put option where the bid price is $35.20 and
the ask price $38.10.
mid quote
put
35 .20 + 38 .10
= 36 .65
2
Finally, to get the mid-quote price for K0, one must compute the average of the mid-quote
call and the mid-quote put prices.
3
Ibid.
mid quote K 0 =
37 .15 + 36 .65
= 36 .90
2
Further, consider any out-of-the-money option, say a put, with a strike price K = $915
where the bid price is $30.80 and the ask price is $36.30. The mid quote price for that
particular strike would only be
mid quote
putonly
30 .80 + 36 .30
= 33 .55
2
Now that the ingredients and preliminary explanations have been formulated, the
procedure to find the VIX value can begin. The VIX calculation will first need two
options with different maturities, one near-term and the other next-term. Starting with
options that have maturities 9 days and 37 days, assume that the options begin at
8:30AM Chicago time. The time of settlement for these options is assumed to be also
8:30AM Chicago time. In order to have accurate calculations, the time to maturity must
be converted to minutes per year. The new maturity T will then be
T = {MCurrent Day + MOther days + MSettlement Day} / Minutes in a year
where
MCurrent Day = # of minutes from start until midnight of the current day
MOther Days = # of minutes of days in between the current days and the settlement day
MSettlement Day = # of minutes from midnight until settlement time on the last day
Given the initial time is 8:30AM, T1 and T2 for the respective options are:
T1 = {(15.5 hrs*60 mins) + (8 days*24 hrs*60 mins) + (8.5 hrs*60 mins)} / (365 days*24
hrs*60 mins)
T1 = {930 + 11,520 + 510) / 525,600 = 0.0246575
T2 = {(15.5 hrs*60 mins) + (36 days*24 hrs*60 mins) + (8.5 hrs*60 mins)} / (365
days*24 hrs*60 mins)
T2 = {930 + 51,840 + 510) / 525,600 = 0.1013699
Assume R to be 0.38% for both options in this example. The riskless interest rate R is
retrieved by the bond-equivalent yield of the U.S. T-bill maturing closest to the [option]
expiration dates.4 So, the VIX calculation may use different riskless interest rates for
near- and next-term options.
The selected options for the calculation of the spot price F, are out-of-the-money calls
and puts centered around an at-the-money strike, K0. The at-the-money strike price can
be found by finding the strike price where the difference between the call and put prices
is the smallest. From the table below, the at-the-money strike price is 920.
NOTE: The dots in the various blocks means that values have been omitted to save space. Please see
http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/vixwhite.pdf for full tables.
Just to check that the strike price that was chosen was the right choice, one can calculate
the spot prices for both the near- and next-term options. Listed below they are:
F = Strike Price + eRT (Call Price Put Price)
F1 = 920 + e 0.0038 0.0246575) (37.15 36.65) = 920.50005
F2 = 920 + e(0.0038 0.1013699) (61.55 60.55) = 921.00039
(
K0 should be the strike price that is immediately below the spot prices so 920 is indeed
the strike price K0.
Next, choose out-of-the-money put options with strike prices less than K0. Start with the
put strike directly below K0 and move to consecutively lower strike prices. The
constraints throughout this process include omitting puts with a zero bid price and that
the collection of put options will cease when two puts with consecutive strike prices that
are zero are seen. Once those options are collected, follow the same procedure with the
call options with the same constraints. With the options that were collected, calculate the
mid-quote price as detailed above. For the strike price 920, K0, average the mid-quote
prices for both the call and the put option at strike to get the mid-quote price for 920.
Next, bring in the full formula and begin to compute values for individual terms in the
formula. Take the left hand side of our formula:
2 K i RT
2 e Q( K i )
T i Ki
Ibid.
Ki, as explained above, is the interval between the strike prices. Middle values of this
interval can be calculated by taking the difference of the strikes surrounding Ki and
dividing it by 2. The upper end strike and the lower end strike intervals can be calculated
simply by subtracting the end strike with the adjacent strike. For example if the listing of
put strikes were the following: 350, 355, 360, 365, 370, and 375, the interval for one of
the middle values, like 365, would be
K 365 Put =
370 360 10
=
=5
2
2
and for one of the end values like 350, the calculation for K350 Put would be
K 350 Put = 355 350 = 5
The interval is the same for this particular example set but each case is shown so to find
the interval at different locations in the strike distribution.
Knowing about the strike interval one can now begin to calculate values for the left term
of the VIX formula. For the near-term put at strike 400, the left term of the formula
would come out to be the following:
Each contribution from all the out-of-the-money puts and calls is then summed and
multiplied by 2/T1 for near-term options and 2/T2 for next-term options. A table of some
of these particular values and the subsequent end value is shown below.
Figure 2: Mid-Quote List and Left Term Calculation Table6
Ibid.
NOTE: The dots in the various blocks means that values have been omitted to save space. Please see
http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/vixwhite.pdf for full tables.
So the near-term total contribution of the strikes is 0.4727799 and the next-term total
contribution is 0.3668297.
For the right term of the VIX formula, directly plug in the variables to get the right term
values for both near- and next-term options.
With both the left hand term and the right hand term of the formula calculated, the
variance 2 for both types of options can finally be calculated.
In order to get the solitary volatility , take the square root of the variance. But before
that happens, compute the 30-day weighted average of the near-term and the next-term
options so to get one value to take the square root of. There are some things that need to
be considered when thinking about weighted averages. Firstly, if the near-term maturity
of one option is less than 30 days and the next-term maturity for the other option is
greater than 30 days, then the VIX calculation reflects an interpolation wherein each
individual option weight is less than or equal to 1 and the sum of the weights equal to 1.
Conversely, if both the near-term and the next-term options are greater than 30 days, then
the VIX calculation reflects an extrapolation wherein the sum of the option weights is
still equal to 1, but the near-term option weight is greater than 1, and the next-term option
weight is less than 0.
In this particular problem, the weighted average calculation calls for an interpolation.
The VIX value with the appropriate interpolation term under the radical is shown below
Where:
NT1 = # of minutes to settlement of the near-term options (12,960)
NT2 = # of minutes to settlement of the next-term options (53,280)
N30 = # of minutes in 30 days (30 1,440 = 43,200)
N365 = # of minutes in a 365-day year (365 1,440 = 525,600)
The equation with the values plugged in look like the following:
The specific weights that come into play with the different variances intend on narrowing
the disparity between the two variances. With T2 closer to 30 days at 37 days, its
contribution to the interpolation will be less than the contribution from T1 which is 9
days. Once the interpolated variances are found between the near-term and the next-term
options, one can take the square root of that value and multiply by 100 to get a final VIX
value of 61.22.
As far as the index option prices, this means that the options were priced with about a
68% chance that the S&P 500s 30-day return will be above or below 17.67%.
Qualitatively, it means the depending on the number of the VIX, the more unstable the
S&P 500. Listed below is the subjective distribution of stability given particular values
of the VIX:
A good comfortable range to be in is between 18 and 27. That means that the economy is
stable and peoples feelings about the market are mainly complacent.
put options but with opposite trends. For a large downside volatility, a writer for a put
option will want to raise his price because of the high risk for drastic movement.
In it, multiple dates exhibit a negative correlation between the S&P 500 index price and
the VIX value. Some good examples include the beginning and the end of 1998,
September 11, 2001, and the dot-com crisis of 2002. The end of 1998 signified the crises
of Russian debt and the problems that arose with Long Term Capital Management. It
was during this time, among other times, that there was a high negative correlation
between the VIX values and the S&P 500 index prices. The table below shows the
disparity between the S&P 500 and the VIX between August 3, 1998 and the end of
November, 1998 when the Russian debt and the LTCM crisis was going on.
Figure 4: VIX vs. S&P 500 (SPX) During LTCM and Russian Debt Crisis10
THE CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX VIX. CBOE Home. Chicago Board of Options Exchange. 22
Mar. 2009 <http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/vixwhite.pdf>. (NOTE: Graphs were on an older version of
this page and have been eliminated in the update)
10
THE CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX VIX. (NOTE: Graphs were on an older version of this page and
have been eliminated in the update)
How much does this correlation extend for the 13 year period? In this next plot below,
see that the slope of the VIX values have a negative slope when comparing the daily VIX
changes and the daily index changes.
Figure 5: Negative Correlation of VIX with S&P 500 (SPX)11
11
Ibid. (NOTE: Graphs were on an older version of this page and have been eliminated in the update)
The data seem very suggestive to the VIX having a negative correlation with stock prices.
Does the same relationship hold for todays stock behavior? Indeed it does. Below is an
Excel plot of the VIX vs. the S&P 500 for the time period of 2008-2009.
Figure 6: 2008-2009 VIX vs. S&P 500
0.3
On a number of occasions, specifically the time around October 10 and November 24, the
VIX movement and the S&P 500 movement are opposites of each other.
It has been thoroughly established that the VIX correlates negatively with the index
options, but does it offer predictions for market movement? If it is, then investors would
know when significant changes would be happen so that they can either make profit in
option investments or hedge against bigger risks of loss. However, the evidence that has
been explored does not show any predictive qualities. In fact, a lot of the previous
assessments show that the VIX value change is a response to Index changes rather than a
prediction of the Index changes. The Excel plot below shows this evidencesee the
points below marked with *. The VIX value spikes a day or two after the S&P 500 index
drops.
0.2
So it turns out that this fear index, as investors call it, does not have any predictive
qualities. It does correlate well with Index prices but, as far as one can tell, it does not
provide any predictive evidence for market behavior.
Other critiques of the VIX value extend further than the predictive value. VIX measures
index option volatility over a 30-day interval. However, equity options have 2-6 month
maturities. There is no way to weigh that length of maturity into a 30-day VIX value
without having a gross amount of error. Also, volatility is usually high in technology
stocks and low in utility stocks. So the VIX may be too simplistic to estimate for all
types of stocks. Granted the VIX is supposed to measure the volatility in the S&P 500
market index in general, but the influence of the volatility on particular industries can
skew the VIX value.
The Volatility Smile is the phenomenon where, when the Black-Scholes implied
volatility is calculated using option prices based on the current market, the volatility of
in-the-money options and out-of-the-money options tends to be higher than at-the-money
options. When strike price is plotted against implied volatility, the graph looks something
like:
Figure 8: Volatility Smile Graph12
The Volatility Smile results from the probability of extreme moves. The greater the
difference of the strike price (K) from the initial stock price (S0) the higher the implied
volatility of the option.
Traders use the Black-Scholes pricing method to find the price of a put or call option.
When the options are priced using this method, they are priced with a consistent implied
volatility. That is, for options with the same underlying stock and time to expiry, but
different K, Black-Scholes assumes a constant . However, using data from actual stock
prices, it can be found that the volatility of the options is not consistent.
Using option data from April 16, 200913, the Black-Scholes function in Maple was used
to calculate the implied volatility of options with varied strike prices for six different
companies: Microsoft, Citigroup, JP Morgan, General Motors, Amazon and Exxon
Mobil. In these representations, it is important to note that plot of the volatility against
the strike price for the company does not always reflect a smile curve like the one in
Figure 8. There are two possible causes for this: 1) the option prices on
finance.yahoo.com are out of date and 2) not all companies trade in a strike price range
wide enough to reflect the entirety of the smile.
Figure 9: Microsoft Option Data14
12
Microsoft
Stock Price
Date of Expiry
RisklessIntrest Rate
16-Apr-09
$19.76
16-Oct-09
-0.029
Strike Price
$10.00
$13.00
$18.00
$21.00
$24.00
$30.00
Note that the Microsoft stock price at the time the graph was generated was $19.76. This
curve reflects the left hand side of the smile.
Figure 11: Citigroup Option Data15
Citigroup
Stock Price
Date of Expiry
Riskless Intrest Rate
15
16-Apr-09
$4.01
18-Sep-09
-0.335
Strike Price
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
$10.00
$15.00
Volatility
1.1584
1.20201
1.22284
1.28384
1.26572
1.28768
1.24566
1.34701
The price of Citigroup stock at the time the graph was generated was $4.01. Note that this
graph is unique (out of the ones studied) because it reflects the right side of the smile as
opposed to the left. It is believed this happened because of how low Citigroups stock is
that there are not any options with a strike price below the underlying.
Figure 13: JP Morgan Option Data16
JP Morgan
Stock Price
Date of Expiry
Riskless Intrest Rate
16-Apr-09
$33.24
18-Sep-09
-0.014
16
Ibid.
Strike Price
$7.50
$17.00
$23.00
$27.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
$50.00
$55.00
$60.00
$65.00
Volatility
1.31616
0.83719
0.85417
0.83692
0.73562
0.66598
0.62278
0.58113
0.53802
0.57696
0.56012
0.55616
JP Morgan has more call options available for trading, resulting in a wider range of strike
prices. Because of the more pronounced smile, it is believed that the option data for JP
Morgan was also more up-to-date when the graph was generated.
Figure 15: General Motors Option Data17
General Motors
Stock Price
Date of Expiry
Riskless Intrest Rate
16-Apr-09
$1.94
18-Sep-09
-0.755
17
Strike Price
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
Volatility
1.45429
1.54094
1.51958
1.49524
1.53495
General Motors has a very low underlying stock price of $1.94 and only five different
strike prices available for trade. However, the implied volatilities of these options are
more consistent than those of other companies. Something that is important to note,
however, is that the volatility is consistently very highapproximately 1.5.
Figure 17: Amazon Option Data18
Amazon
Stock Price
Date of Expiry
Riskless Intrest Rate
16-Apr-09
$77.25
16-Oct-09
-0.017
18
Strike Price
$40.00
$45.00
$50.00
$55.00
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
$85.00
$90.00
$95.00
$100.00
$120.00
Volatility
0.55971
0.59459
0.58462
0.62443
0.58119
0.61589
0.59057
0.56818
0.54467
0.54457
0.52042
0.48745
The plot of Amazons implied volatilities exhibits some of the characteristics of the
volatility smiles, but it seems that the option prices for 40 K 70 is outdated because
the graph is inconsistent.
Figure 19: Exxon Mobil Option Data19
Exxon Mobil
Stock Price
Date of Expiry
Riskless Intrest Rate
22-Apr-09
$64.75
16-May-09
-0.077
Strike Price
$50.00
$55.00
$60.00
$65.00
$70.00
$75.00
$80.00
19
Exxon Mobil calculation suggested by Richard Hurst. 22 April 2009. Data from finance.yahoo.com.
Volatility
0.68934
0.56726
0.40197
0.33733
0.32083
0.33593
0.39957
The Exxon Mobil volatility smile is an almost perfect example of the theoretical smile
shown in Figure 8. This is most likely attributed to the high volume of trading on Exxon
Mobil options as well as the moderate impact of the economy on the oil industry.
In the example of the impact of time to expiry below, as in the first example, the
downward slope of the implied volatilities is greater with a shorter time to expiry. In this
example, the range of strike prices is wide enough to show the full volatility smile, so you
can see that the options with the least time to expiry also have a steeper upwards slope.
Figure 22: VOD Implied Volatility20
20
Dermen, Emanuel. "Laughter in the Dark-- The Problem of the Volatility Smile." 26 May 2003. 17 Apr.
2009, 4.
Ticker Symbol
% Short
Amazon
Citigroup
General Motors
JP Morgan
AMZN
C
GM
JPM
NA
17.10%
1.90%
Microsoft
MSFT
1.30%
8.00%
Bond Rating
Baa2
A3
Ca
Aa3
Aaa
Its connection to the volatility smile is not exactly clear. The hypothesis was that, the
Exxon Mobil
XOM
0.70% Aaa
more shallow the smile, the better the company performed both in % short value and in
its bond rating. It turns out that for the limited number of companies with a somewhat
limited amount of strikes to evaluate per company, it seems as though the company with
the steeper smile ends up having a better performance report on the other quantities. The
reason there could be 2 reasons: 1) The bond ratings take a long time to evaluate, so
21
22
0.15%
0.02%
24.73%
0.01%
0.00%
0.00%
some long term ratings may either be out of date (though it is a good rating, Exxon
Mobils long term rating is Aaa as of June 6, 1995) and 2) Though the smile may be
steep, the volatility that it is approaching may not be as high as some companies with less
pronounced smiles or odd plots overall.
As far as is known for now, there can be no definitive correlation between the volatility
smile, the % short value, and the bond rating. More data needs to be collected
hopefully more accurate data to make a better assessment of this hypothesized
relationship.
Dollar Error23
To calculate dollar error, first select two options with the same underlying stock price, the
same time to expiry, and different strike prices. For a given volatility, calculate the
Black-Scholes price of each option.
Dollar error=|market BS price|
Record the maximum difference of the dollar errors from either option 1 or option 2.
Repeat this process, altering assumed volatility each time so that the volatilities
eventually range from 0 to by an interval of your choosing.
23
Rubenstein, Mark. "Implied Binomial Trees." Haas School of Business, University of California
Berkeley - MBA, MFE, PhD, and Undergraduate Programs. 15 Apr. 2009
24
Ibid.
25
Rubenstein, Mark..
corresponding option price.26 Symbolically, this means if DE is the dollar error, that at a
particular volatility :
DE [op 1]
DE [op 2]
=
price [op 1]
price [op 2]
Pricing27
In order to put a price on the MDE, Rubenstein proposed a scaled version of the MDE in
which:
Scaled MDE=(MDE*100)/concurrent underlying
This formula accounts for the difference in the original underlying stock prices. It would
seem that the higher the stock price, the greater the MDE.
26
Ibid.
Ibid.
28
Ibid.
29
Dermen, Emanuel, and Iraj Kani. "The Volatility Smile and Its Implied Tree." Jan. 1994. 15 Apr.
2009, 6.
27
30
The mean stock price for the above distribution is $116.18 with a standard deviation of
21.80%. This distribution reflects the implied tree distribution where the implied
volatility is skewed toward the lower index prices like those less than $100.
Figure 27: Lognormal Probability Distribution34
32
Dermen, Emanuel, and Iraj Kani. "The Volatility Smile and Its Implied Tree." Jan. 1994. 15 Apr. 2009,
14.
33
Ibid.
34
Dermen, Emanuel, and Iraj Kani. "The Volatility Smile and Its Implied Tree." Jan. 1994. 15 Apr. 2009,
14.
This distribution has the same mean stock price and standard deviation as the implied
probability distribution, but this particular plot reflects what should be happening in the
Black Schole model, where the random walk of index prices takes place.
Figure 28: (Implied-Lognormal) Probability Distribution35
35
Dermen, Emanuel, and Iraj Kani. "The Volatility Smile and Its Implied Tree." Jan. 1994. 15 Apr. 2009,
14.
This is the difference between the two previous distributions. The most important set of
data to consider is the first set of positive bars show how the implied tree skews its
volatility values to lower index prices.
Figure 29: Implied Local Volatility36
The three-dimensional image above plots the index vs. volatility vs. time. In the Black
Scholes pricing model, this would be a flat plane. Using the implied market behavior tree,
it is a surface where the implied volatility is higher at a lower index and at a shorter time
to expiry. Not only can these distributions be plotted for smiles that are independent of
expiration time, but one can compute distributions where expiration time is significant,
such as European options as well as more exotic options at different expiration times.
Conclusion
The VIX, its history, a walkthrough of a detailed example of how to calculate the value of
the VIX, and the interpretation of the data gathered over the years on the VIX has been
presented here. The VIX is certainly negatively correlated to the S&P 500 market index
but it does not serve to predict the movement of the market. It must be remembered that
the VIX value was intended to measure the implied volatility of the S&P 500 index. Any
subjective speculations about its affect on the market or how it reacts to the markets
cannot be fully confirmed with this current analysis. Also, as more is learned about the
volatility smile phenomenon, scientists and economists continually work with modeling
the volatility smile and to effectively price options that accurately reflect market
behavior. The two main areas of study are the implied binomial tree, as shown above, and
stochastic models using differential equations. All in all, the VIX and the volatility smile
36
Ibid.
are both ways for economists to study the behavior of the market and discover how they
can potentially predict, if at all possible, the movement of the market. Only time will tell
the wondrous discoveries that will be made about the seemingly random movements of
volatility and the stock market.
Bibliography
Bringo, Damiano. "Volatility-Smile Modeling with Density-Mixture Stochastic
Differential Equations." 18 Dec. 2002. 15 Apr. 2009.
Dermen, Emanuel, and Iraj Kani. "The Volatility Smile and Its Implied Tree." Jan.
1994. 15 Apr. 2009 <http://www.ederman.com/new/docs/gs
volatility_smile.pdf>.
Dermen, Emanuel. "Laughter in the Dark-- The Problem of the Volatility Smile." 26
May 2003. 17 Apr. 2009.
Krupansky, Jack. "VIX - CBOE Volatility Index." Finaxyz. 30 Jan. 2006. 5 May 2009
<http://www.finaxyz.com/vix.htm>.
Moodys.com. 21 Apr. 2009 <http://www.moodys.com>.
Poon, Ser-Huang. "Volatility Smile and Skew." 28 Sept. 2008. 17 Apr. 2009.
Rubenstein, Mark. "Implied Binomial Trees." Haas School of Business,
University of California Berkeley - MBA, MFE, PhD, and Undergraduate
Programs. 15 Apr. 2009
<http://www.haas.berkeley.edu/groups/finance/WP/rpf232.pdf>.
THE CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX VIX. CBOE Home. Chicago Board of
Options Exchange. 22 Mar. 2009
<http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/vixwhite.pdf>.
"VIX." Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. 22 Mar. 2009
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIX>.
"Volatility Skew." Optionistics. 15 Apr. 2009
<http://www.optionistics.com/i/volatility_skew>.
"Volatility smile." Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. 15 Apr. 2009
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatility_smile>.
Addendum
Appendix A: VIX vs. S&P 500 Calculations and Graph
Date
Adj
Close
VIX
2/26/200
9
44.66
2/25/200
9
44.67
2/24/200
9
45.49
0.00022
39
0.01819
04
0.14560
38
2/23/200
9
52.62
Date
Adj
Close
2/26/200
9
752.8
3
2/25/200
9
764.9
2/24/200
9
773.1
4
0.06517
22
2/23/200
9
743.3
3
2/20/200
9
770.0
5
2/19/200
9
778.9
4
2/18/200
9
788.4
2
S&P500
0.0159056
68
0.0107150
38
2/20/200
9
49.3
2/19/200
9
47.08
2/18/200
9
48.46
0.04607
58
0.02889
04
0.00411
86
2/17/200
9
48.66
0.12528
65
2/17/200
9
789.1
7
2/13/200
9
42.93
0.03991
98
0.07651
2
0.04693
84
2/13/200
9
826.8
4
0.0393200
53
0.0353153
56
0.0114785
73
0.0120969
22
0.0009508
17
0.0466294
46
0.0100480
38
2/12/200
9
835.1
9
0.0017376
41
2/11/200
9
833.7
4
0.06712
74
0.00620
62
0.00826
64
0.00274
2/10/200
9
827.1
6
869.8
9
0.0079234
56
0.0503686
2
0.0014840
47
868.6
845.8
5
0.0265406
81
0.0162331
94
2/12/200
9
41.25
2/11/200
9
44.53
2/10/200
9
46.67
2/9/2009
43.64
2/6/2009
2/5/2009
43.37
43.73
2/9/2009
2/6/2009
2/5/2009
04
2/4/2009
43.85
2/3/2009
43.06
0.01818
02
0.05555
73
2/2/2009
45.52
1/30/200
9
44.84
1/29/200
9
42.63
1/28/200
9
39.66
1/27/200
9
42.25
1/26/200
9
45.69
1/23/200
9
47.27
1/22/200
9
47.29
1/21/200
9
46.42
1/20/200
9
56.65
1/16/200
9
1/15/200
9
1/14/200
9
1/13/200
9
1/12/200
9
46.11
51
49.14
43.27
45.84
0.0075176
62
2/4/2009
832.2
3
2/3/2009
838.5
1
0.01505
12
2/2/2009
825.4
4
0.05054
24
1/30/200
9
825.8
8
0.07221
51
0.06326
12
0.07827
51
0.03399
64
0.00042
3
1/29/200
9
845.1
4
0.0157099
3
0.0005329
07
0.0230528
1
0.0336810
51
1/28/200
9
874.0
9
0.0330068
34
1/27/200
9
845.7
1
0.0108663
12
1/26/200
9
836.5
7
0.0055378
56
1/23/200
9
831.9
5
0.01856
85
0.19916
16
1/22/200
9
827.5
0.0053632
36
0.0152784
58
1/21/200
9
840.2
4
0.20586
21
0.10079
58
0.03715
23
1/20/200
9
805.2
2
1/16/200
9
1/15/200
9
850.1
2
843.7
4
0.12721
38
0.05769
75
0.06815
18
1/14/200
9
842.6
2
0.0075331
26
0.0013283
05
0.0340324
84
1/13/200
9
1/12/200
9
871.7
9
870.2
6
0.0017565
52
0.0228226
0.0425720
33
0.0542619
84
1/9/2009
42.82
1/8/2009
42.56
1/7/2009
43.39
1/6/2009
38.56
1/5/2009
39.08
1/2/2009
39.19
12/31/20
08
40
12/30/20
08
41.63
12/29/20
08
43.9
12/26/20
08
43.38
12/24/20
08
44.21
12/23/20
08
45.02
12/22/20
08
44.56
12/19/20
08
44.93
12/18/20
08
47.34
12/17/20
08
12/16/20
49.84
52.37
0.00609
04
0.01931
42
26
0.0215332
08
1/9/2009
890.3
5
1/8/2009
909.7
3
1/7/2009
906.6
5
1/6/2009
934.7
1/5/2009
927.4
5
0.0077867
38
0.0046793
15
1/2/2009
931.8
0.0311188
29
12/31/20
08
903.2
5
0.0140590
65
12/30/20
08
890.6
4
0.01191
58
0.01895
25
0.01815
58
12/29/20
08
869.4
2
0.0241139
83
0.0038801
12
12/26/20
08
872.8
0.0053419
24
12/24/20
08
868.1
5
0.01027
02
0.00826
91
0.05224
99
0.05146
23
0.04951
6
-
12/23/20
08
863.1
6
12/22/20
08
871.6
3
12/19/20
08
887.8
8
12/18/20
08
885.2
8
12/17/20
08
12/16/20
904.4
2
913.1
0.11801
35
0.01339
54
0.00281
08
0.02045
78
0.03994
16
0.05309
33
0.0033913
64
0.0304691
34
0.0057644
37
0.0097649
48
0.0184715
77
0.0029326
2
0.0213898
75
0.0096391
59
0.0500848
0.08049
79
08
12/15/20
08
56.76
12/12/20
08
54.28
12/11/20
08
55.78
12/10/20
08
55.73
12/9/200
8
58.91
12/8/200
8
58.49
12/5/200
8
59.93
12/4/200
8
63.64
12/3/200
8
60.72
12/2/200
8
62.98
12/1/200
8
11/28/20
08
68.51
55.28
11/26/20
08
54.92
11/25/20
08
60.9
11/24/20
08
64.7
11/21/20
08
11/20/20
72.67
80.86
08
32
0.0127668
61
0.04467
6
0.02725
95
12/15/20
08
868.5
7
12/12/20
08
879.7
3
0.00089
68
0.05549
23
12/11/20
08
873.5
9
12/10/20
08
899.2
4
0.00715
51
0.02432
14
0.06006
5
12/9/200
8
888.6
7
0.0118239
99
0.0233889
12
12/8/200
8
909.7
0.0376688
78
12/5/200
8
876.0
7
0.04696
91
0.03654
41
0.08416
25
12/4/200
8
845.2
2
0.0358490
48
0.0297464
76
12/3/200
8
870.7
4
0.0255080
56
12/2/200
8
848.8
1
0.21456
85
0.00653
36
0.10335
56
0.06052
8
0.11616
74
0.10679
06
0.08514
12/1/200
8
11/28/20
08
816.2
1
896.2
4
0.0391636
94
0.0935365
59
0.0095969
17
11/26/20
08
887.6
8
0.0347184
27
11/25/20
08
857.3
9
0.0065293
94
11/24/20
08
851.8
1
0.0627142
7
11/21/20
08
11/20/20
800.0
3
752.4
0.0613279
68
-
0.0070038
84
0.0289388
04
08
68
08
11/19/20
08
806.5
8
11/18/20
08
859.1
2
11/19/20
08
74.26
11/18/20
08
67.64
0.09337
29
0.02207
85
11/17/20
08
69.15
0.04193
73
11/17/20
08
850.7
5
11/14/20
08
873.2
9
11/13/20
08
911.2
9
11/14/20
08
66.31
11/13/20
08
59.83
0.10283
35
0.10509
31
11/12/20
08
66.46
0.07853
92
11/12/20
08
852.3
11/11/20
08
61.44
0.02404
99
11/11/20
08
898.9
5
11/10/20
08
59.98
11/10/20
08
919.2
1
11/7/200
8
930.9
9
0.0694818
27
0.0631055
23
0.0097902
96
0.0261493
75
0.0425934
9
0.0669226
01
0.0532888
38
0.0222871
9
0.0127339
31
11/7/200
8
56.1
0.06687
54
0.12673
47
11/6/200
8
63.68
0.15456
95
11/6/200
8
904.8
8
11/5/200
8
54.56
11/5/200
8
952.7
7
11/4/200
8
47.73
11/4/200
8
1005.
75
11/3/200
8
53.68
11/3/200
8
966.3
0.0400144
66
0.0025322
36
10/31/20
08
968.7
5
0.0152485
74
10/30/20
08
954.0
9
10/29/20
08
930.0
9
0.0254766
51
0.0111409
26
10/31/20
08
59.89
10/30/20
08
62.9
0.13374
09
0.11748
04
0.10946
91
0.04903
66
0.10637
75
10/29/20
08
69.96
0.04382
82
0.0284461
98
0.0515711
93
0.0541152
79
10/28/20
08
10/27/20
08
66.96
0.17868
09
10/28/20
08
940.5
1
80.06
0.01168
43
10/27/20
08
848.9
2
10/24/20
08
876.7
7
10/23/20
08
908.1
1
10/24/20
08
79.13
10/23/20
08
67.8
0.15452
99
0.02692
05
10/22/20
08
69.65
0.27111
75
10/22/20
08
896.7
8
10/21/20
08
53.11
10/21/20
08
955.0
5
10/20/20
08
52.97
0.00263
95
0.28347
27
10/20/20
08
985.4
10/17/20
08
940.5
5
10/16/20
08
946.4
3
10/17/20
08
70.33
10/16/20
08
67.61
0.03944
25
0.02396
72
10/15/20
08
69.25
0.22802
91
10/15/20
08
907.8
4
10/14/20
08
55.13
10/14/20
08
998.0
1
10/13/20
08
54.99
0.00254
27
0.24062
94
10/13/20
08
1003.
35
10/10/20
08
69.95
0.09014
84
10/10/20
08
899.2
2
10/9/200
8
63.92
0.10532
58
10/9/200
8
909.9
2
10/8/200
8
57.53
0.06926
61
10/8/200
8
984.9
4
0.03083
57
0.14243
6
10/7/200
8
10/6/200
8
996.2
3
1056.
89
10/7/200
8
10/6/200
8
53.68
52.05
0.1024573
28
0.0322797
47
0.0351208
16
0.0125549
47
0.0629531
25
0.0312839
55
0.0465828
4
0.0062322
01
0.0416288
6
0.0946951
45
0.0053363
84
0.1095719
59
0.0118289
63
0.0792240
42
0.0113974
29
0.0591077
58
0.0392793
10/3/200
8
45.14
0.00265
49
10/2/200
8
45.26
0.12830
55
10/2/200
8
1114.
28
10/1/200
8
39.81
10/1/200
8
1161.
06
9/30/200
8
39.39
0.01060
62
0.17066
04
9/30/200
8
1164.
74
9/29/200
8
9/26/200
8
1106.
42
1213.
27
9/25/200
8
1209.
18
9/24/200
8
1185.
87
9/29/200
8
9/26/200
8
10/3/200
8
1099.
23
01
0.0135985
22
0.0411249
25
0.0031645
05
0.0513683
08
0.0921896
16
0.0033767
5
9/25/200
8
32.82
9/24/200
8
35.19
0.29628
06
0.05685
37
0.06972
39
0.01494
88
9/23/200
8
35.72
0.05377
18
9/23/200
8
1188.
22
9/22/200
8
33.85
9/22/200
8
1207.
09
9/19/200
8
32.07
0.05401
8
0.03161
23
0.09007
82
0.0194657
61
0.0019797
07
0.0157561
15
0.0389868
11
9/19/200
8
1255.
08
0.0394674
21
9/18/200
8
1206.
51
0.17846
37
0.04516
9
9/17/200
8
1156.
39
0.0424288
11
0.0482880
65
9/16/200
8
1213.
6
0.21138
33
0.05076
01
0.00531
59
9/15/200
8
9/12/200
8
1192.
7
1251.
7
0.0173715
04
0.0482829
83
0.0021193
65
9/11/200
8
1249.
05
0.0137119
3
46.72
34.74
9/18/200
8
33.1
9/17/200
8
36.22
9/16/200
8
30.3
9/15/200
8
9/12/200
8
25.66
9/11/200
8
24.39
31.7
9/10/200
8
24.52
9/9/2008
25.47
0.03801
22
9/10/200
8
1232.
04
9/9/2008
1224.
51
0.0061305
68
0.0347344
63
9/8/2008
1267.
79
0.0203026
77
9/5/2008
1242.
31
9/4/2008
1236.
83
9/3/2008
1274.
98
9/2/2008
1277.
58
0.06089
71
0.01684
14
0.03627
73
0.02315
59
8/29/200
8
1282.
83
0.0044208
95
0.0303788
38
0.0020371
71
0.0041009
11
0.0138186
3
8/28/200
8
1300.
68
0.0147310
92
8/27/200
8
1281.
66
0.0079509
42
8/26/200
8
1271.
51
0.10870
42
0.05230
29
0.02982
33
0.04125
29
8/25/200
8
1266.
84
0.0036795
6
0.0198205
81
8/22/200
8
1292.
2
0.0112689
53
8/21/200
8
1277.
72
0.0024919
1
8/20/200
8
1274.
54
0.01419
81
0.06906
1
8/19/200
8
8/18/200
8
1266.
69
1278.
6
0.0061781
3
0.0093585
3
0.0152129
0.11778
3
0.01838
13
0.04120
35
9/8/2008
22.64
9/5/2008
23.06
9/4/2008
24.03
9/3/2008
21.43
0.11451
12
0.02579
6
9/2/2008
21.99
0.06287
25
8/29/200
8
20.65
8/28/200
8
19.43
8/27/200
8
19.76
8/26/200
8
20.49
8/25/200
8
20.97
8/22/200
8
18.81
8/21/200
8
19.82
8/20/200
8
20.42
8/19/200
8
8/18/200
8
21.28
20.98
6
8/15/200
8
19.58
8/14/200
8
20.34
0.03808
08
0.05778
64
8/13/200
8
21.55
8/12/200
8
21.17
8/11/200
8
20.12
8/8/2008
20.66
8/7/2008
21.15
8/6/2008
20.23
8/5/2008
21.14
8/4/2008
23.49
8/1/2008
7/31/200
8
22.57
7/30/200
8
22.94
21.21
8/15/200
8
1298.
2
0.0040677
29
8/14/200
8
1292.
93
0.01779
07
8/13/200
8
1285.
83
0.05087
07
0.02648
51
0.02344
04
0.04447
33
0.04400
03
0.10540
78
8/12/200
8
1289.
59
0.0055065
36
0.0029199
14
0.0121238
83
8/11/200
8
1305.
32
0.0069187
4
8/7/2008
1296.
32
1266.
07
0.0236118
67
0.0180965
8/6/2008
1289.
19
0.0033487
85
8/5/2008
1284.
88
8/4/2008
1249.
01
8/1/2008
7/31/200
8
1260.
31
1267.
38
0.0283140
91
0.0090064
85
0.0055940
55
0.0132309
7/30/200
8
1284.
26
0.0165344
93
7/29/200
8
1263.
2
7/28/200
8
1234.
37
0.0230874
65
0.0187716
43
7/25/200
8
1257.
76
7/24/200
8
1252.
54
0.03995
32
0.01626
05
0.07840
93
0.03793
24
0.09518
64
7/29/200
8
22.03
7/28/200
8
24.23
7/25/200
8
22.91
0.05601
8
0.02287
05
7/24/200
8
23.44
0.09526
75
8/8/2008
0.0041588
71
0.0233960
64
7/23/200
8
21.31
7/16/200
8
7/15/200
8
28.54
0.00611
91
0.08460
84
0.04246
92
0.03914
07
0.00359
21
0.12843
88
0.00210
45
7/22/200
8
21.18
7/21/200
8
23.05
7/18/200
8
24.05
7/14/200
8
28.48
0.03537
98
7/14/200
8
1228.
3
0.07162
07
0.01416
79
7/11/200
8
7/10/200
8
1239.
49
1253.
39
7/9/2008
1244.
69
7/8/2008
1273.
7
7/7/2008
1252.
31
7/3/2008
1262.
9
7/2/2008
1261.
52
7/17/200
8
7/11/200
8
7/10/200
8
25.01
25.1
27.49
25.59
7/9/2008
25.23
7/8/2008
23.15
7/7/2008
25.78
7/3/2008
24.79
7/2/2008
25.92
7/1/2008
6/30/200
8
23.65
6/27/200
8
23.95
23.44
0.08603
9
0.10760
42
0.03915
87
0.04457
45
0.09165
18
0.01260
52
0.02152
44
0.02068
89
7/23/200
8
1282.
19
7/22/200
8
1277
7/21/200
8
1260
0.0134018
56
0.0005395
37
7/18/200
8
1260.
68
0.0002856
01
7/17/200
8
1260.
32
0.0119410
12
7/16/200
8
7/15/200
8
1245.
36
1214.
91
0.0247546
45
0.0109611
0.0090689
05
0.0111518
76
0.0069653
78
0.0230395
48
7/1/2008
6/30/200
8
6/27/200
8
1284.
91
1280
1278.
38
0.0040559
76
0.0169362
05
0.0084208
18
0.0010933
21
0.0183713
34
0.0038285
99
0.0012664
27
0.0037243
41
6/26/200
8
23.93
6/25/200
8
21.14
0.12396
59
0.05878
64
0.00976
48
0.01010
78
6/26/200
8
1283.
15
6/25/200
8
1321.
97
6/24/200
8
1314.
29
6/23/200
8
1318
6/20/200
8
1317.
93
6/19/200
8
1342.
83
0.0298050
56
0.0058264
52
0.0028188
4
6/24/200
8
22.42
6/23/200
8
22.64
6/20/200
8
22.87
6/19/200
8
21.58
0.05805
9
0.03012
55
6/18/200
8
22.24
0.05119
86
6/18/200
8
1337.
81
6/17/200
8
1350.
93
0.0037453
79
0.0097592
96
0.0067943
91
6/16/200
8
1360.
14
8.08773E05
6/13/200
8
1360.
03
0.0149341
64
6/12/200
8
1339.
87
0.0032743
29
0.0170387
17
0.0024409
98
5.31122E05
0.0187170
03
6/17/200
8
21.13
6/16/200
8
20.95
6/13/200
8
21.22
6/12/200
8
23.33
0.00855
52
0.01280
55
0.09479
6
0.03330
13
6/11/200
8
24.12
0.03975
15
6/11/200
8
1335.
49
0.00259
18
0.01885
23
6/10/200
8
1358.
44
6/9/2008
1361.
76
6/6/2008
1360.
68
0.0007934
06
0.0313763
43
1404.
05
1377.
2
0.0193084
65
0.0003266
6/10/200
8
23.18
6/9/2008
23.12
6/6/2008
23.56
6/5/2008
6/4/2008
18.63
20.8
0.23477
72
0.11017
98
0.02729
21
6/5/2008
6/4/2008
6/3/2008
20.24
6/2/2008
19.83
5/30/200
8
17.83
5/29/200
8
18.14
5/28/200
8
5/27/200
8
19.07
19.64
0.02046
49
0.10631
35
0.01723
7
0.04999
7
0.02945
19
0.00459
3
6/3/2008
1377.
65
6/2/2008
1385.
67
97
0.0058046
28
0.0105598
51
5/30/200
8
1400.
38
0.0015150
22
5/29/200
8
1398.
26
0.0053207
25
5/28/200
8
5/27/200
8
1390.
84
1385.
35
5/23/200
8
1375.
93
0.0039550
66
0.0068229
49
0.0132984
91
5/22/200
8
1394.
35
5/23/200
8
19.55
5/22/200
8
18.05
0.07982
96
0.02947
81
5/21/200
8
18.59
0.05586
19
5/21/200
8
1390.
71
0.03296
05
0.03226
09
0.01037
54
0.08013
71
0.01795
78
5/20/200
8
5/19/200
8
5/16/200
8
1413.
4
1426.
63
1425.
35
0.0026139
49
0.0161837
41
0.0093168
7
0.0008976
22
0.0012495
97
5/15/200
8
1423.
57
0.0105289
03
5/14/200
8
1408.
66
5/13/200
8
1403.
04
0.0039975
87
0.0003848
05
5/12/200
8
1403.
58
5/9/2008
5/8/2008
1388.
28
1397.
5/20/200
8
5/19/200
8
5/16/200
8
17.58
17.01
16.47
5/15/200
8
16.3
5/14/200
8
17.66
5/13/200
8
17.98
5/12/200
8
17.79
0.01062
35
0.08715
19
5/9/2008
5/8/2008
19.41
19.4
0.00051
53
-
0.0109605
45
0.0067481
48
0.0036627
0.01686
73
5/7/2008
19.73
5/6/2008
18.21
5/5/2008
18.9
0.08016
94
0.03719
1
68
58
0.0182798
07
5/7/2008
1392.
57
5/6/2008
1418.
26
5/5/2008
1407.
49
0.0076227
92
0.0045438
67
5/2/2008
1413.
9
0.0032303
34
5/1/2008
1409.
34
5/2/2008
18.18
5/1/2008
18.88
0.03883
98
0.03778
11
0.09636
89
4/30/200
8
20.79
0.02681
13
4/30/200
8
1385.
59
4/29/200
8
20.24
0.03009
25
4/29/200
8
1390.
94
4/28/200
8
19.64
4/28/200
8
1396.
37
0.0169954
68
0.0038537
36
0.0038962
35
0.0010521
76
4/25/200
8
1397.
84
0.0064737
22
4/24/200
8
1388.
82
0.0064216
92
4/23/200
8
1379.
93
4/25/200
8
19.59
4/24/200
8
20.06
4/23/200
8
20.26
0.00254
91
0.02370
86
0.00992
07
0.02966
42
4/22/200
8
20.87
0.01788
78
4/22/200
8
1375.
94
4/21/200
8
20.5
0.01821
36
0.01185
2
0.00782
4
0.10399
57
4/21/200
8
1388.
17
0.0028956
39
0.0088491
99
0.0015547
96
4/18/200
8
1390.
33
0.0179765
28
4/17/200
8
1365.
56
0.0006226
49
4/16/200
8
1364.
71
0.0224377
17
4/18/200
8
20.13
4/17/200
8
20.37
4/16/200
8
20.53
4/15/200
8
4/14/200
8
22.78
0.04464
26
4/15/200
8
1334.
43
23.82
0.01522
87
4/14/200
8
1328.
32
0.06516
39
0.03706
61
4/11/200
8
1332.
83
4/10/200
8
1360.
55
4/9/2008
1354.
49
4/8/2008
1365.
54
0.0044640
3
0.0081249
55
0.0051130
83
4/7/2008
1372.
54
0.0015603
7
4/4/2008
1370.
4
0.0007957
05
4/3/2008
1369.
31
4/2/2008
1367.
53
0.0013007
7
0.0019359
25
4/1/2008
1370.
18
0.0352670
16
3/31/200
8
1322.
7
3/28/200
8
1315.
22
3/27/200
8
1325.
76
3/26/200
8
1341.
13
0.0056711
5
0.0079819
28
0.0115266
62
0.0088044
16
3/25/200
8
3/24/200
8
1352.
99
1349.
88
0.0023012
59
0.0152052
46
4/11/200
8
23.46
4/10/200
8
21.98
4/9/2008
22.81
4/8/2008
22.36
4/7/2008
22.42
4/4/2008
22.45
4/3/2008
23.21
4/2/2008
23.43
4/1/2008
22.68
3/31/200
8
25.61
3/28/200
8
25.71
3/27/200
8
25.88
3/26/200
8
26.08
3/25/200
8
3/24/200
8
25.72
25.73
0.01992
54
0.00267
98
0.00133
72
0.03329
26
0.00943
4
0.03253
38
0.12149
94
0.00389
71
0.00659
04
0.00769
83
0.01389
98
0.00038
87
0.03400
0.0045892
49
0.0033895
15
0.0205845
29
3/20/200
8
26.62
3/19/200
8
29.84
3/18/200
8
3/17/200
8
3/14/200
8
3/13/200
8
52
0.11418
7
3/20/200
8
1329.
51
3/19/200
8
1298.
42
25.79
0.14586
3
0.22322
11
3/18/200
8
1330.
74
32.24
0.03407
27
3/17/200
8
1276.
6
0.13261
49
0.00256
83
3/14/200
8
3/13/200
8
1288.
14
1315.
48
0.03210
43
0.10846
65
3/12/200
8
1308.
77
3/11/200
8
1320.
65
0.06649
19
0.00218
02
3/10/200
8
1273.
37
3/7/2008
1293.
37
3/6/2008
1304.
34
3/5/2008
1333.
7
3/4/2008
1326.
75
3/3/2008
1331.
34
31.16
27.29
3/12/200
8
27.22
3/11/200
8
26.36
3/10/200
8
29.38
3/7/2008
27.49
3/6/2008
27.55
3/5/2008
24.6
3/4/2008
25.52
3/3/2008
26.28
0.11325
61
0.03671
6
0.02934
57
0.00984
48
2/29/200
8
26.54
0.12037
68
2/29/200
8
1330.
63
23.53
0.03635
19
2/28/200
8
2/27/200
8
1367.
68
1380.
02
2/28/200
8
2/27/200
8
22.69
0.0236623
13
0.0245870
38
0.0415348
85
0.0089990
24
0.0210023
01
0.0051138
53
0.0090362
75
0.0364571
1
0.0155842
86
0.0084459
51
0.0222598
69
0.0052246
92
0.0034536
11
0.0005334
4
0.0274633
59
0.0089821
18
0.2
Daily Change
0.1
0
Appendix B: VIX vs. Dow Calculations and Graph
2/22/2008
4/12/2008
6/1/2008 Adj 7/21/2008
Adj
Date
Close
VIX
Date
Close
DOW
45.49
0.0002
2
0.0181
9
0.1456
-0.2
2/23/200
9
52.62
0.0651
72
2/23/200
9
7114.7
8
0.0460
76
0.0288
9
0.0041
2
2/20/200
9
7365.6
7
2/19/200
9
7465.9
5
0.0122
9
0.0109
5
0.0326
54
0.0346
6
0.0135
2
0.0119
4
2/18/200
9
7555.6
3
0.0004
01
2/26/200
9
44.66
-0.1
2/25/200
9
2/24/200
9
2/20/200
9
44.67
49.3
-0.3
2/19/200
9
47.08
2/18/200
9
48.46
2/26/200
9
7182.0
8
2/25/200
9
2/24/200
9
7270.8
9
7350.9
4
9/9/2008
Date
10/29
2/17/200
9
48.66
2/13/200
9
42.93
0.0386
7
0.0104
4
0.0008
5
0.1252
86
2/17/200
9
7552.6
2/13/200
9
7850.4
1
2/12/200
9
7932.7
6
2/11/200
9
7939.5
3
2/10/200
9
7888.8
8
2/9/2009
8270.8
7
0.0064
0.0472
9
0.0011
7
2/6/2009
8280.5
9
0.0266
2
2/5/2009
8063.0
7
2/4/2009
7956.6
6
0.0132
85
0.0151
8
2/3/2009
8078.3
6
2/12/200
9
41.25
2/11/200
9
44.53
0.0399
2
0.0765
1
0.0469
4
2/10/200
9
46.67
0.0671
27
2/9/2009
43.64
2/6/2009
43.37
0.0062
06
0.0082
7
0.0027
4
2/5/2009
43.73
2/4/2009
43.85
2/3/2009
43.06
0.0181
8
0.0555
6
2/2/2009
45.52
0.0150
51
2/2/2009
7936.8
3
1/30/200
9
44.84
0.0505
42
1/30/200
9
8000.8
6
0.0722
15
0.0632
6
0.0782
8
1/29/200
9
8149.0
1
0.0176
75
0.0080
4
0.0183
5
0.0274
1
1/28/200
9
8375.4
5
0.0242
57
1/27/200
9
1/26/200
9
8174.7
3
8116.0
3
1/23/200
9
8077.5
6
0.0072
07
0.0047
51
0.0055
9
1/29/200
9
42.63
1/28/200
9
39.66
1/27/200
9
1/26/200
9
1/23/200
9
42.25
45.69
47.27
-0.034
0.0004
2
1/22/200
9
47.29
1/21/200
9
46.42
1/20/200
9
1/16/200
9
1/15/200
9
1/14/200
9
1/13/200
9
1/12/200
9
1/22/200
9
8122.8
1/21/200
9
8228.1
0.2058
62
0.1008
0.0371
52
1/20/200
9
1/16/200
9
1/15/200
9
7949.0
9
8281.2
2
8212.4
9
43.27
0.1272
14
0.0577
1/14/200
9
1/13/200
9
8200.1
4
8448.5
6
45.84
0.0681
52
1/12/200
9
8473.9
7
1/9/2009
8599.1
8
1/8/2009
8742.4
6
1/7/2009
8769.7
1/6/2009
9015.1
-0.003
0.0146
7
0.0165
2
0.0031
1
0.0276
0.0069
25
1/5/2009
8952.8
9
0.0091
1/2/2009
9034.6
9
0.0290
06
12/31/20
08
8776.3
9
0.0123
82
12/30/20
08
8668.3
9
12/29/20
08
8483.9
3
0.0215
09
0.0037
2
12/26/20
08
12/24/20
8515.5
5
8468.4
0.0055
43
0.0058
56.65
46.11
51
49.14
1/9/2009
42.82
1/8/2009
42.56
1/7/2009
43.39
1/6/2009
38.56
1/5/2009
39.08
1/2/2009
39.19
12/31/20
08
40
12/30/20
08
41.63
12/29/20
08
43.9
12/26/20
08
12/24/20
0.0128
8
0.0185
68
0.1991
6
43.38
44.21
0.0060
9
0.0193
1
0.1180
14
0.0134
0.0028
1
0.0204
6
0.0399
4
0.0530
9
0.0119
16
0.0189
5
-
0.0344
98
0.0409
3
0.0083
34
0.0015
05
0.0298
4
0.0181
6
08
12/23/20
08
45.02
12/22/20
08
44.56
12/19/20
08
44.93
12/18/20
08
12/17/20
08
12/16/20
08
47.34
49.84
52.37
12/15/20
08
56.76
12/12/20
08
54.28
12/11/20
08
55.78
12/10/20
08
55.73
12/9/200
8
58.91
12/8/200
8
58.49
12/5/200
8
12/4/200
8
12/3/200
8
12/2/200
8
12/1/200
8
59.93
63.64
60.72
62.98
68.51
08
02
0.0118
3
0.0069
5
0.0030
1
0.0251
7
0.0112
5
0.0411
31
0.0075
8
0.0102
7
0.0082
7
0.0522
5
0.0514
6
0.0495
2
0.0805
12/23/20
08
8419.4
9
12/22/20
08
8519.6
9
12/19/20
08
8579.1
1
12/18/20
08
8604.9
9
12/17/20
08
12/16/20
08
8824.3
4
8924.1
4
0.0446
76
0.0272
6
12/15/20
08
8564.5
3
12/12/20
08
8629.6
8
0.0008
97
0.0554
9
12/11/20
08
8565.0
9
12/10/20
08
8761.4
2
0.0071
55
0.0243
2
0.0600
6
0.0469
69
0.0365
4
0.0841
6
0.2145
69
12/9/200
8
8691.3
3
0.0080
32
0.0275
6
12/8/200
8
8934.1
8
0.0340
12
12/5/200
8
12/4/200
8
8635.4
2
8376.2
4
0.0304
73
0.0254
12/3/200
8
8591.6
9
0.0202
94
12/2/200
8
12/1/200
8
8419.0
9
8149.0
9
0.0325
95
0.0801
0.0075
13
0.0226
6
11/28/20
08
11/28/20
08
8829.0
4
4
0.0116
69
11/26/20
08
8726.6
1
0.0287
29
11/25/20
08
8479.4
7
0.0042
64
11/24/20
08
8443.3
9
0.0481
57
11/21/20
08
8046.4
2
0.0633
76
0.0572
5
0.0520
7
11/26/20
08
54.92
11/25/20
08
60.9
11/24/20
08
64.7
11/21/20
08
72.67
0.0065
34
0.1033
6
0.0605
3
0.1161
7
0.1067
9
11/20/20
08
80.86
0.0851
47
11/20/20
08
7552.2
9
0.0933
73
0.0220
8
11/19/20
08
7997.2
8
11/18/20
08
8424.7
5
11/17/20
08
11/14/20
08
8273.5
8
8497.3
1
11/13/20
08
8835.2
5
55.28
11/19/20
08
74.26
11/18/20
08
67.64
11/17/20
08
11/14/20
08
11/13/20
08
59.83
0.0419
37
0.1028
34
0.1050
9
11/12/20
08
66.46
0.0785
39
11/12/20
08
8282.6
6
11/11/20
08
61.44
0.0240
5
11/11/20
08
8693.9
6
11/10/20
08
8870.5
4
11/7/200
8
8943.8
1
69.15
66.31
11/10/20
08
59.98
11/7/200
8
56.1
0.0668
75
0.1267
3
11/6/200
8
63.68
0.1545
7
11/6/200
8
8695.7
9
11/5/200
8
54.56
0.1337
41
11/5/200
8
9139.2
7
0.0181
06
0.0266
8
-0.039
0.0645
85
0.0484
6
0.0201
1
0.0082
3
0.0281
23
0.0497
4
0.0518
1
11/4/200
8
47.73
11/3/200
8
53.68
0.1174
8
0.1094
7
0.0490
4
0.1063
8
11/4/200
8
9625.2
8
11/3/200
8
9319.8
3
0.0322
49
0.0018
3
10/31/20
08
9336.9
3
0.0168
75
10/30/20
08
9180.6
9
10/29/20
08
8990.9
6
0.0208
83
0.0082
1
10/28/20
08
9065.1
2
10/31/20
08
59.89
10/30/20
08
62.9
10/29/20
08
69.96
10/28/20
08
66.96
0.0438
28
0.1786
8
10/27/20
08
80.06
0.0116
84
10/27/20
08
8175.7
7
10/24/20
08
8378.9
5
10/23/20
08
8691.2
5
0.1032
59
0.0245
5
0.0365
9
10/24/20
08
79.13
10/23/20
08
67.8
0.1545
3
0.0269
2
10/22/20
08
69.65
0.2711
17
10/22/20
08
8519.2
1
10/21/20
08
53.11
10/21/20
08
9045.2
1
10/20/20
08
52.97
0.0026
4
0.2834
7
10/20/20
08
9265.4
3
0.0394
43
0.0239
7
10/17/20
08
8852.2
2
10/16/20
08
8979.2
6
0.2280
29
0.0025
43
0.2406
3
10/15/20
08
10/14/20
08
8577.9
1
9310.9
9
0.0457
27
0.0820
1
0.0082
10/13/20
08
9387.6
1
0.1050
83
10/17/20
08
70.33
10/16/20
08
67.61
10/15/20
08
10/14/20
08
10/13/20
08
69.25
55.13
54.99
0.0199
93
0.0599
1
0.0240
5
0.0456
22
0.0142
5
10/10/20
08
69.95
0.0901
48
10/10/20
08
8451.1
9
10/9/200
8
63.92
0.1053
26
10/9/200
8
8579.1
9
10/8/200
8
57.53
0.0692
66
10/8/200
8
9258.1
10/7/200
8
53.68
0.0308
36
10/7/200
8
9447.1
1
10/6/200
8
52.05
10/6/200
8
9955.5
10/3/200
8
45.14
0.1424
36
0.0026
5
10/3/200
8
10325.
38
10/2/200
8
45.26
0.1283
06
10/2/200
8
10482.
85
0.0106
06
0.1706
6
10/1/200
8
10831.
07
9/30/200
8
10850.
66
9/29/200
8
9/26/200
8
10365.
45
11143.
13
9/25/200
8
11022.
06
9/24/200
8
10825.
17
10/1/200
8
39.81
9/30/200
8
39.39
9/29/200
8
9/26/200
8
0.0150
3
0.0761
6
0.0202
1
0.0524
2
0.0364
8
0.0151
4
0.0326
8
0.0018
1
0.0457
48
0.0723
5
0.0109
24
9/25/200
8
32.82
9/24/200
8
35.19
0.2962
81
0.0568
54
0.0697
2
0.0149
5
9/23/200
8
35.72
0.0537
72
9/23/200
8
10854.
17
0.0540
18
0.0316
1
0.0900
8
9/22/200
8
11015.
69
0.0180
25
0.0026
8
0.0147
7
0.0332
8
9/19/200
8
11388.
44
0.0329
15
9/18/200
8
11019.
69
0.0379
19
46.72
34.74
9/22/200
8
33.85
9/19/200
8
32.07
9/18/200
8
33.1
9/17/200
8
36.22
9/16/200
8
0.0414
8
9/17/200
8
10609.
66
30.3
0.1784
64
0.0451
7
9/16/200
8
11059.
02
9/15/200
8
31.7
0.2113
83
9/15/200
8
10917.
51
9/12/200
8
25.66
9/12/200
8
11421.
99
9/11/200
8
24.39
9/11/200
8
11433.
71
0.0145
18
9/10/200
8
24.52
0.0507
6
0.0053
2
0.0380
1
0.0128
78
0.0451
7
0.0010
3
9/10/200
8
11268.
92
9/9/2008
25.47
9/9/2008
11230.
73
0.0033
95
0.0246
3
0.1177
83
0.0183
8
0.0412
9/3/2008
11188.
23
11532.
88
9/2/2008
11516.
92
8/29/200
8
11543.
55
8/28/200
8
11715.
18
0.0183
2
8/27/200
8
11502.
51
0.0078
24
20.49
0.0608
97
0.0168
4
0.0362
8
0.0231
6
0.0254
97
0.0029
21
0.0303
4
0.0013
85
0.0023
1
0.0147
6
8/26/200
8
11412.
87
20.97
18.81
0.1087
04
-
8/25/200
8
8/22/200
11386.
25
11628.
0.0023
35
0.0210
1
0.0171
9/8/2008
22.64
9/5/2008
23.06
9/4/2008
24.03
9/3/2008
21.43
0.1145
11
0.0258
9/2/2008
21.99
0.0628
72
8/29/200
8
20.65
8/28/200
8
19.43
8/27/200
8
19.76
8/26/200
8
8/25/200
8
8/22/200
9/8/2008
9/5/2008
9/4/2008
11510.
74
11220.
96
8
8/21/200
8
19.82
8/20/200
8
20.42
8/19/200
8
8/18/200
8
0.0523
0.0298
2
0.0412
5
06
61
8/21/200
8
11430.
21
0.0011
19
8/20/200
8
11417.
43
8/19/200
8
8/18/200
8
11348.
55
11479.
39
0.0060
51
0.0114
6
0.0156
8/15/200
8
11659.
9
0.0037
78
8/14/200
8
11615.
93
8/15/200
8
19.58
8/14/200
8
20.34
0.0141
98
0.0690
61
0.0380
8
0.0577
9
8/13/200
8
21.55
0.0177
91
8/13/200
8
11532.
96
8/12/200
8
21.17
8/12/200
8
11642.
47
8/11/200
8
20.12
8/11/200
8
11782.
35
0.0040
85
8/8/2008
20.66
0.0508
71
0.0264
9
0.0234
4
0.0071
68
0.0094
5
0.0119
4
8/8/2008
11734.
32
8/7/2008
21.15
0.0444
73
8/6/2008
20.23
0.0261
51
0.0194
6
0.0034
63
8/5/2008
21.14
21.28
20.98
8/4/2008
23.49
8/1/2008
22.57
7/31/200
8
22.94
7/30/200
8
21.21
-0.044
0.1054
1
0.0399
53
0.0162
6
0.0784
09
0.0379
3
8/6/2008
11431.
43
11656.
07
8/5/2008
11615.
77
8/4/2008
11284.
15
8/1/2008
11326.
32
7/31/200
8
11378.
02
0.0289
65
0.0037
3
0.0045
5
0.0179
1
7/30/200
8
11583.
69
0.0161
99
8/7/2008
7/29/200
8
7/28/200
8
7/25/200
8
7/24/200
8
7/23/200
8
22.03
24.23
22.91
0.0951
9
0.0560
18
0.0228
7
7/29/200
8
7/28/200
8
11397.
56
11131.
08
0.0236
58
0.0213
7/25/200
8
11370.
69
7/24/200
8
7/23/200
8
11349.
28
11632.
38
0.0018
85
0.0246
4
0.0025
72
7/22/200
8
11602.
5
7/21/200
8
11467.
34
0.0117
18
0.0025
5
7/18/200
8
11496.
57
0.0043
51
7/17/200
8
11446.
66
0.0182
83
7/16/200
8
11239.
28
7/21/200
8
23.05
7/18/200
8
24.05
7/17/200
8
25.01
7/16/200
8
25.1
0.0952
68
0.0061
19
0.0846
1
0.0424
7
0.0391
4
0.0035
9
0.1284
4
7/15/200
8
28.54
0.0021
05
7/15/200
8
10962.
54
28.48
0.0353
8
7/14/200
8
11055.
19
0.0716
21
0.0141
68
7/11/200
8
7/10/200
8
11100.
54
11229.
02
7/22/200
8
7/14/200
8
7/11/200
8
7/10/200
8
23.44
21.31
21.18
27.49
25.59
7/9/2008
25.23
7/8/2008
23.15
7/7/2008
25.78
7/3/2008
24.79
0.0860
39
0.1076
0.0391
59
0.0445
7
7/8/2008
11147.
44
11384.
21
7/7/2008
11231.
96
0.0249
31
0.0084
2
0.0040
9
0.0115
1
0.0072
92
0.0210
2
0.0134
64
0.0050
2
7/3/2008
11288.
53
0.0064
9
7/9/2008
7/2/2008
25.92
7/1/2008
6/30/200
8
23.65
6/27/200
8
23.95
23.44
6/26/200
8
23.93
6/25/200
8
21.14
6/24/200
8
22.42
6/23/200
8
22.64
6/20/200
8
22.87
0.0916
52
0.0126
1
0.0215
24
0.0206
9
7/2/2008
11215.
51
7/1/2008
6/30/200
8
11382.
26
11350.
01
6/27/200
8
11346.
51
0.1239
66
0.0587
9
0.0097
6
0.0101
1
6/26/200
8
11453.
42
6/25/200
8
11811.
83
6/24/200
8
11807.
43
6/23/200
8
11842.
36
6/20/200
8
11842.
69
6/19/200
8
12063.
09
0.0147
6
0.0028
37
0.0003
08
0.0093
8
0.0308
1
0.0003
73
0.0029
5
-2.8E05
0.0184
4
6/19/200
8
21.58
0.0580
59
0.0301
3
6/18/200
8
22.24
0.0511
99
6/18/200
8
12029.
06
6/17/200
8
21.13
0.0085
55
0.0128
1
0.0948
0.0333
0.0397
52
0.0025
92
0.0188
5
0.2347
6/17/200
8
12160.
3
6/16/200
8
6/13/200
8
6/12/200
8
6/11/200
8
6/10/200
8
12269.
08
12307.
35
12141.
58
12083.
77
12289.
76
0.0028
25
0.0108
5
0.0089
1
0.0031
1
0.0135
61
0.0047
73
0.0169
0.0007
68
6/9/2008
6/6/2008
12280.
32
12209.
0.0057
58
-
6/16/200
8
6/13/200
8
6/12/200
8
6/11/200
8
6/10/200
8
6/9/2008
6/6/2008
20.95
21.22
23.33
24.12
23.18
23.12
23.56
6/5/2008
18.63
6/4/2008
20.8
6/3/2008
20.24
6/2/2008
19.83
5/30/200
8
5/29/200
8
5/28/200
8
5/27/200
8
17.83
18.14
19.07
19.64
77
0.1101
8
0.0272
92
0.0204
65
0.1063
14
0.0172
4
-0.05
0.0294
5
0.0045
93
81
6/5/2008
6/4/2008
12604.
45
12390.
48
6/2/2008
12402.
85
12503.
82
5/30/200
8
5/29/200
8
12638.
32
12646.
22
5/28/200
8
5/27/200
8
12594.
03
12548.
35
5/23/200
8
12479.
63
5/22/200
8
12625.
62
6/3/2008
0.0318
1
0.0171
21
-0.001
0.0081
1
0.0107
0.0006
2
0.0041
35
0.0036
34
0.0054
91
0.0116
3
5/23/200
8
19.55
5/22/200
8
18.05
0.0798
3
0.0294
8
5/21/200
8
18.59
0.0558
62
5/21/200
8
12601.
19
0.0329
6
0.0322
61
5/20/200
8
5/19/200
8
12828.
68
13028.
16
0.0103
75
0.0801
4
0.0179
6
5/16/200
8
12986.
8
0.0019
37
0.0178
9
0.0154
3
0.0031
8
0.0004
5
5/15/200
8
12992.
66
0.0072
83
5/14/200
8
12898.
38
0.0106
24
0.0871
5/13/200
8
5/12/200
8
12832.
18
12876.
05
0.0051
46
0.0034
1
0.0101
61
5/20/200
8
5/19/200
8
17.58
17.01
5/16/200
8
16.47
5/15/200
8
16.3
5/14/200
8
17.66
5/13/200
8
5/12/200
8
17.98
17.79
5
5/9/2008
19.41
5/8/2008
19.4
5/7/2008
19.73
5/6/2008
18.21
5/5/2008
18.9
5/2/2008
18.18
5/1/2008
18.88
4/30/200
8
4/29/200
8
20.79
20.24
4/28/200
8
19.64
4/25/200
8
19.59
4/24/200
8
4/23/200
8
4/22/200
8
4/21/200
8
20.06
20.26
20.87
20.5
4/18/200
8
20.13
4/17/200
8
4/16/200
20.37
20.53
0.0005
15
0.0168
7
0.0094
4
5/9/2008
12745.
88
5/8/2008
12866.
78
5/7/2008
12814.
35
5/6/2008
13020.
83
5/5/2008
12969.
54
0.0039
47
0.0068
1
5/2/2008
13058.
2
0.0036
98
5/1/2008
13010
0.0268
11
0.0300
93
4/30/200
8
4/29/200
8
12820.
13
12831.
94
0.0025
49
0.0237
1
0.0099
2
0.0296
6
0.0178
88
0.0182
14
0.0118
5
0.0078
2
-0.104
4/28/200
8
12871.
75
0.0147
02
0.0009
2
0.0031
0.0015
6
4/25/200
8
12891.
86
0.0033
34
4/24/200
8
12848.
95
0.0066
94
4/23/200
8
4/22/200
8
4/21/200
8
12763.
22
12720.
23
12825.
02
0.0033
74
0.0082
0.0019
4/18/200
8
12849.
36
0.0179
72
4/17/200
8
4/16/200
12620.
49
12619.
9.67E05
0.0205
0.0801
69
0.0371
9
0.0388
4
0.0377
8
0.0963
7
0.0040
83
0.0159
8
8
4/15/200
8
4/14/200
8
4/11/200
8
22.78
23.82
23.46
4/10/200
8
21.98
4/9/2008
22.81
4/8/2008
22.36
4/7/2008
22.42
4/4/2008
22.45
0.0446
4
0.0152
29
0.0651
64
0.0370
7
3/28/200
8
25.71
0.0199
25
0.0026
8
0.0013
4
0.0332
9
0.0094
3
0.0325
34
0.1215
0.0039
0.0065
9
3/27/200
8
25.88
0.0077
4/3/2008
23.21
4/2/2008
23.43
4/1/2008
3/31/200
8
22.68
25.61
3/26/200
8
26.08
3/25/200
8
25.72
3/24/200
8
25.73
3/20/200
8
26.62
0.0139
0.0003
9
0.0340
1
0.1141
9
27
4/15/200
8
4/14/200
8
4/11/200
8
12362.
47
12302.
06
12325.
42
0.0048
99
0.0019
0.0206
4/10/200
8
12581.
98
4/9/2008
12527.
26
4/8/2008
12576.
44
0.0043
59
0.0039
2
0.0028
6
4/7/2008
12612.
43
4/4/2008
12609.
42
0.0002
39
0.0013
2
4/1/2008
3/31/200
8
12626.
03
12608.
92
12654.
36
12262.
89
3/28/200
8
12216.
4
3/27/200
8
12302.
46
3/26/200
8
12422.
86
3/25/200
8
12532.
6
0.0013
56
0.0036
0.0314
24
0.0037
98
0.0070
2
0.0097
4
0.0087
9
0.0012
8
3/24/200
8
12548.
64
0.0150
4
3/20/200
8
12361.
32
0.0213
95
4/3/2008
4/2/2008
3/19/200
8
3/18/200
8
3/17/200
8
3/14/200
8
3/13/200
8
3/12/200
8
29.84
25.79
32.24
31.16
27.29
27.22
3/11/200
8
26.36
3/10/200
8
29.38
3/7/2008
27.49
3/6/2008
27.55
3/5/2008
24.6
0.1458
63
0.2232
2
0.0340
73
3/19/200
8
12099.
66
3/18/200
8
3/17/200
8
12392.
66
11972.
25
0.1326
15
0.0025
68
3/14/200
8
3/13/200
8
11951.
09
12145.
74
0.0321
04
0.1084
7
3/12/200
8
12110.
24
3/11/200
8
12156.
81
0.0664
92
0.0021
8
3/10/200
8
11740.
15
3/7/2008
11893.
69
3/6/2008
12040.
39
3/5/2008
12254.
99
3/4/2008
12213.
8
3/3/2008
12258.
9
3/4/2008
25.52
3/3/2008
26.28
0.1132
56
0.0367
2
0.0293
5
0.0098
4
2/29/200
8
26.54
0.1203
77
2/29/200
8
12266.
39
23.53
0.0363
52
2/28/200
8
2/27/200
8
12582.
18
12694.
28
2/28/200
8
2/27/200
8
22.69
0.0239
3
0.0345
13
0.0017
69
0.0161
6
0.0029
27
0.0038
4
0.0348
75
0.0129
9
0.0122
6
0.0176
7
0.0033
67
0.0036
9
0.0006
1
0.0254
2
0.0088
7
0.2
Daily Change
0.1
0
Appendix C: VIX vs. S&P 500 Prediction Calculations and Graph
2/22/2008
4/12/2008
6/1/2008
7/21/2008
9/9/2008
Date
VIX
Log Change
S&P
500
1/2/2009
39.19
12/1/2008
40
11/3/2008
55.28
0.020457842
0.323531725
0.080098367
10/1/2008
59.89
0.418997569
968.75
1330.63
1378.55
-0.1
-0.2 39.39
9/2/2008
8/1/2008
20.65
7/1/2008
6/2/2008
5/1/2008
22.94
23.95
17.83
4/1/2008
20.79
3/3/2008
25.61
0.645796658
0.105166792
0.043086212
0.295085892
-0.15358967
0.208510798
0.035670129
2/1/2008
1/2/2008
26.54
26.2
0.012893618
0.152244102
-0.3
Log Change
931.8
0.031118829
903.25
1164.74
0.007791136
0.077798346
0.184246584
0.096570689
1282.83
0.012116797
1267.38
1280
1400.38
-0.0099083
-0.08988355
0.010617587
1385.59
0.04645094
0.005977412
0.035379708
-0.06311391
896.24
1322.7
Date
10/2
12/3/2007
22.5
11/1/2007
10/1/2007
22.87
18.53
9/4/2007
18
8/1/2007
0.016310699
1468.36
1481.14
1549.38
1526.75
0.035168284
23.38
0.210434968
0.029019282
0.261509198
0.005970167
-0.00866593
0.045042789
0.014713558
1473.99
7/2/2007
23.52
0.370989742
1455.27
6/1/2007
16.23
1503.35
5/1/2007
13.05
1530.62
0.032030724
4/2/2007
3/1/2007
14.22
14.64
0.218073248
0.085861291
0.029108084
-0.05190786
0.012781559
0.032504501
0.017976931
1482.37
1420.86
2/1/2007
15.42
1406.82
1/3/2007
12/1/2006
10.42
11.56
1438.24
1418.3
0.013961173
0.012536836
11/1/2006
10.91
1400.63
0.016332505
10/2/2006
11.1
1377.94
0.031021837
9/1/2006
8/1/2006
7/3/2006
11.98
12.31
14.95
1335.85
1303.82
1276.66
0.024269376
0.021051125
0.005072924
6/1/2006
13.08
0.391938332
0.103823827
0.057871063
0.017265308
0.076293484
0.027173348
-0.19429936
0.133626954
0.228633044
0.042379836
0.009930484
0.022088306
1270.2
5/1/2006
4/3/2006
16.44
11.59
1270.09
1310.61
3/1/2006
2/1/2006
1/3/2006
12/1/2005
11.39
12.34
12.95
12.07
1294.87
1280.66
1280.08
1248.29
0.011034734
0.000452994
0.025147961
-0.00095285
11/1/2005
12.06
0.349574732
0.01740688
0.080110241
-0.04824977
0.070372753
0.000828844
0.239264973
8.66043E-05
0.031404914
0.012082374
1249.48
10/3/2005
15.32
1207.01
9/1/2005
11.92
0.250941503
0.055479152
0.034581238
0.017899994
8/1/2005
12.6
1220.33
7/1/2005
11.57
6/1/2005
12.04
5/2/2005
13.29
0.085281273
0.039818899
0.098777433
0.141494337
1228.81
1234.18
0.006924907
0.011285468
1191.33
0.035336452
0.000142687
1191.5
0.029512223
4/1/2005
15.31
0.088021328
1156.85
3/1/2005
14.02
1180.59
2/1/2005
12.08
1/3/2005
12/1/2004
12.82
13.29
11/1/2004
10/1/2004
13.24
16.27
9/1/2004
13.34
8/2/2004
15.29
0.148933689
0.059455259
0.036005421
0.003769322
0.206080371
0.198555881
0.136431979
0.001960144
7/1/2004
15.32
6/1/2004
14.34
5/3/2004
15.5
0.066106329
0.077787189
0.103487795
4/1/2004
17.19
0.026526754
1107.3
3/1/2004
2/2/2004
16.74
14.55
1/2/2004
12/1/2003
11/3/2003
16.63
18.31
16.32
10/1/2003
16.1
0.140210071
-0.1336173
0.096239065
0.115056009
0.013572078
0.344426322
9/2/2003
22.72
8/1/2003
18.63
7/1/2003
6/2/2003
19.49
19.52
5/1/2003
19.47
4/1/2003
21.21
3/3/2003
29.15
2/3/2003
29.63
0.198472409
0.045128329
0.001538067
0.002564762
0.085597949
0.317982144
0.016332449
0.050668732
1/2/2003
31.17
0.08535032
855.7
12/2/2002
28.62
11/1/2002
10/1/2002
27.5
31.14
0.039919769
0.124307162
-0.2426061
1203.6
0.020313519
0.019302752
1181.27
1211.92
0.018726935
0.025615748
0.031942491
1173.82
1130.2
0.037868779
0.013916956
1114.58
0.009320337
1104.24
1101.72
0.002284721
0.034892238
1140.84
0.017829189
1120.68
1126.21
1144.94
0.012011024
0.016933393
0.016494221
0.012135101
1131.13
1111.92
1058.2
0.017128882
0.049518899
0.007103225
1050.71
995.97
0.053504268
0.012016233
1008.01
0.017715344
990.31
974.5
0.016093506
0.011258626
963.59
0.049645665
916.92
0.07792735
848.18
879.82
0.008322874
0.017149844
0.027797494
0.062229277
936.31
885.76
0.055500585
0.082914421
841.15
9/3/2002
8/1/2002
39.69
32.64
0.195560737
0.018865566
815.28
916.07
7/1/2002
32.03
0.23192379
911.62
6/3/2002
25.4
0.240017401
989.82
5/1/2002
19.98
-0.09221138
1067.14
4/1/2002
21.91
1076.92
3/1/2002
17.4
0.230472947
0.215760038
2/1/2002
21.59
1106.73
1/2/2002
21.09
12/3/2001
23.8
11/1/2001
10/1/2001
24.92
33.56
0.02343125
0.120886586
0.045985113
0.297664188
0.049788875
9/4/2001
31.93
0.247875313
1040.94
8/1/2001
24.92
0.142051882
1133.58
7/2/2001
21.62
1211.23
6/1/2001
19.06
5/1/2001
22.64
4/2/2001
25.48
0.126026914
0.172126355
0.118175577
0.116910511
3/1/2001
2/1/2001
1/2/2001
28.64
28.35
22.02
1160.33
1239.94
1366.01
12/1/2000
26.85
0.010177312
0.252675899
-0.19831469
0.099196304
11/1/2000
29.65
0.226945034
1314.95
10/2/2000
23.63
0.138683388
1429.4
9/1/2000
20.57
1436.51
8/1/2000
16.84
0.200076695
0.208307194
7/3/2000
20.74
1430.83
6/1/2000
19.54
5/1/2000
4/3/2000
23.65
26.2
0.059600556
0.190899468
0.102396296
0.101550987
1147.39
0.116561168
0.004869544
0.082299872
0.075214343
0.009122942
0.063384683
1130.2
0.036080076
0.020984887
0.015696374
1148.08
0.007545292
1139.45
1059.78
1224.38
0.07248435
0.017937188
0.085256615
0.066255606
0.010798221
0.025354152
1255.82
0.005077288
1249.46
0.074007011
0.066358544
-0.09683109
0.034050246
1320.28
1517.68
1454.6
1420.6
1452.43
0.004045193
0.083456134
0.004961785
0.054966292
0.058928158
0.016476253
0.023651631
0.022158698
-
0.012755275
0.065420674
1498.58
0.0641378
0.032789823
0.085433556
0.135050508
1394.46
0.031279977
0.092323812
0.020313063
0.052244823
1469.25
1388.91
0.0562328
0.018882473
1362.93
0.038512581
0.007740923
1282.71
0.155572144
0.185556401
1328.72
0.060661767
0.028967267
0.006273778
0.032570815
0.012683484
0.074936765
0.181174439
1301.84
1335.18
0.060243597
0.07226352
0.063078611
0.075507553
0.378363178
0.078181298
0.579689455
1238.33
1279.64
0.038060601
0.032815091
0.040190831
1229.23
0.054843528
1163.63
0.057444072
1098.67
0.077233407
1017.01
957.28
0.229717532
0.078519478
1120.67
0.060526299
-0.15758607
0.011683381
1090.82
1111.75
1101.75
0.009035526
0.04873843
1049.34
0.068078429
980.28
0.010098973
970.43
0.015609171
27.43
0.006588259
0.134121398
0.266708949
0.146186823
0.111813798
0.133166895
0.246278885
0.038680395
0.019005643
955.4
35.09
0.426342693
914.62
0.043621422
0.035086042
3/1/2000
23.67
2/1/2000
23.37
1/3/2000
24.95
12/1/1999
11/1/1999
23.4
24.18
10/1/1999
22.2
9/1/1999
25.41
8/2/1999
24.45
7/1/1999
24.64
6/1/1999
21.09
5/3/1999
4/1/1999
25.39
25.07
3/1/1999
23.26
2/1/1999
1/4/1999
27.88
26.25
12/1/1998
24.42
11/2/1998
26.01
10/1/1998
28.05
9/1/1998
8/3/1998
40.95
44.28
7/1/1998
24.8
6/1/1998
19.71
5/1/1998
21.32
4/1/1998
3/2/1998
21.18
24.22
2/2/1998
18.55
1/2/1998
21.47
12/1/1997
24.01
11/3/1997
10/1/1997
1366.42
1320.41
1372.71
1286.37
1133.84
0.05300824
0.025287466
0.037241816
9/2/1997
22.91
8/1/1997
24.76
7/1/1997
6/2/1997
21.48
21.53
5/1/1997
19.19
4/1/1997
3/3/1997
2/3/1997
1/2/1997
20.06
22.14
21.1
19.47
12/2/1996
20.92
11/1/1996
10/1/1996
17.14
18.11
9/3/1996
8/1/1996
16.95
17.01
7/1/1996
19.46
6/3/1996
5/1/1996
13.68
16.07
4/1/1996
3/1/1996
2/1/1996
1/2/1996
12/1/1995
15.83
18.88
17.04
12.53
12.52
11/1/1995
11.58
10/2/1995
9/1/1995
13.83
12.74
8/1/1995
7/3/1995
11.52
13.49
6/1/1995
5/1/1995
11.38
13.77
4/3/1995
3/1/1995
11.75
13.37
2/1/1995
11.75
1/3/1995
12/1/1994
11/1/1994
0.077655951
947.28
0.142107178
0.002325042
0.115058001
0.044338473
0.098658145
0.048112887
0.080398221
-0.07183082
899.47
0.051789019
0.059182865
954.31
885.14
0.075242742
0.042535055
848.28
0.056925444
801.34
757.12
790.82
786.16
0.199290726
0.055049359
0.066196438
0.003533573
-0.13455967
740.74
0.056763565
-0.04354862
0.005910048
0.059510648
0.021739987
757.02
705.27
0.070808965
0.025766182
687.33
651.99
0.352426165
0.161019268
0.015047306
0.176196287
0.102539639
0.307437752
0.000798403
0.078047894
0.177560674
639.95
0.052785302
0.018639176
0.046827521
670.63
669.12
0.002254153
0.02259616
654.17
645.5
640.43
636.02
615.93
0.013342046
0.007885385
0.006909816
0.032096689
0.017293479
605.37
581.5
584.41
561.88
562.06
544.75
533.4
0.021055362
0.035667976
514.71
500.71
0.027576544
0.026962467
487.39
0.035438711
11.96
13.2
0.082093496
0.100661995
0.157864015
0.170091242
0.190634884
0.158639072
0.129160151
0.129160151
0.017714508
0.098649081
-0.189242
0.040228869
0.004991819
0.039314487
0.000320302
0.031281632
470.42
459.27
15.95
0.091180786
453.69
0.02398764
0.012224127
0.040306091
10/3/1994
14.56
0.019418086
472.35
9/1/1994
8/1/1994
14.28
11.97
462.71
475.49
7/1/1994
11.13
0.176456437
0.072759354
0.296404033
6/1/1994
14.97
444.27
5/2/1994
4/4/1994
13.03
13.77
0.138793807
0.055237922
-0.39549057
3/1/1994
20.45
0.318637122
445.77
2/1/1994
14.87
467.14
1/3/1994
10.63
481.61
0.031983824
12/1/1993
11/1/1993
11.66
13.76
466.45
461.79
0.010040591
-0.01299474
10/1/1993
11.46
0.335665568
0.092483989
0.165601652
0.182903121
0.125317119
0.012320937
0.011464639
0.046825875
0.030505659
467.83
9/1/1993
8/2/1993
12.99
11.85
0.091851963
0.010178205
458.93
463.56
7/1/1993
11.73
448.13
6/1/1993
5/3/1993
11.26
13.47
4/1/1993
12.42
3/1/1993
2/1/1993
12.53
13.16
1/4/1993
12/1/1992
12.42
12.57
11/2/1992
10/1/1992
9/1/1992
13.01
16.15
14.28
0.04089304
0.179208368
0.081156914
0.008817692
0.049056157
0.057873849
0.012004946
-0.03440527
0.216201757
0.123060093
0.050261835
0.019207289
0.010038133
0.033852458
0.005341299
8/3/1992
13.58
414.03
7/1/1992
13.17
6/1/1992
13.35
5/1/1992
13.86
4/1/1992
15.53
3/2/1992
2/3/1992
16.18
16.68
0.030656606
0.013574869
0.037490609
0.113766643
0.041002274
0.030434485
-
458.26
456.5
450.91
450.53
450.19
0.020619728
0.027245343
0.036909143
0.031004223
0.027156214
440.19
0.000754952
0.022463264
0.025745373
451.67
443.38
0.018524635
0.010429042
438.78
435.71
0.007021264
0.010057059
431.35
418.68
417.8
0.029812921
0.002104056
0.009064414
0.024290181
424.21
408.14
0.038618363
0.017511285
415.35
0.000963507
414.95
0.027510774
403.69
412.7
-0.02207368
0.009543823
0.042259809
1/2/1992
17.4
12/2/1991
11/1/1991
19.31
20.26
10/1/1991
15.48
9/3/1991
15.85
8/1/1991
14.46
7/1/1991
6/3/1991
15.18
19.55
5/1/1991
4/1/1991
15.93
18.24
3/4/1991
2/1/1991
16.88
21.23
1/2/1991
12/3/1990
20.91
26.38
11/1/1990
22.16
10/1/1990
30.04
9/4/1990
29.11
8/1/1990
7/2/1990
29.9
21.11
6/1/1990
15.5
5/1/1990
17.37
4/2/1990
19.52
3/1/1990
19.73
2/1/1990
1/2/1990
21.99
25.36
-0.10415289
0.048025402
0.269099631
0.023620632
408.78
0.020124912
417.09
375.22
0.105789505
-0.04489662
392.45
0.091783284
0.048592555
0.252996514
0.204771163
0.135412861
0.077487495
0.229285787
0.015187762
0.232378634
0.174317285
0.304240965
387.86
0.011764691
0.019329331
395.43
0.019458251
387.81
371.16
0.043882292
-0.04907751
389.83
375.34
0.037878465
0.000319761
375.22
367.07
0.021959955
0.065114417
343.93
330.22
0.040679049
0.024524557
322.22
0.031448069
0.026776723
304
0.058206841
0.006720786
0.052540678
0.099062825
-0.00523686
0.008926024
0.348111619
0.308906838
0.113904556
0.116695001
0.010700739
0.108447485
0.142585325
#DIV/0!
306.05
322.56
356.15
358.02
361.23
330.8
0.088000911
0.027255168
339.94
0.023965543
331.89
329.08
0.008502706
#DIV/0!
1600
1400
Stock Value
1200
1000
Volatility Smile
Stephen Perno
Kaitlin Cherundolo
April 22, 2009
600
200
Microsoft
Option Data from April 16, 2009 with expiry October 16, 2009.
The first step is to solve for the riskless interest rate, 'r':
0
8/30/89
5/26/92
2/20/95
11/16/97
8/12/00
Date
>
>
Then we use the BlackScholes function in Maple to find the implied volatilities for the
options at various strike prices. The following is the call option data at six different strike
prices:
>
>
>
>
Citigroup
Option Data from April 16, 2009 with expiry September 18, 2009.
The first step is to solve for the riskless interest rate, 'r':
>
>
Then we use the BlackScholes function in Maple to find the implied volatilities for the
options at various strike prices. The following is the call option data at eight different
strike prices:
>
>
>
>
JP Morgan
Option Data from April 16, 2009 with expiry September 18, 2009.
The first step is to solve for the riskless interest rate, 'r':
>
>
Then we use the BlackScholes function in Maple to find the implied volatilities for the
options at various strike prices. The following is the call option data at eleven different
strike prices:
>
>
>
>
Compute the same interest rate r and use the strikes and option prices to calculate the
implied volatility for expiry June 19, 2009.
>
>
>
>
>
>
Finally, compute the last interest rate r and use the strikes and option prices to calculate
the implied volatility for expiry September 18, 2009.
>
>
>
>
>
>
Combine the plots into one complete plot and notice how the volatility smile with the
greatest volatility and the steepest slope is the one closest to expiry.
>
>
To find the riskless interest rate, r, we use the equation for r solved through the Put-Call
Parity.
>
Create two arrays choosing strike prices K that have high volumes (can be found on the
right side of the chart of option data) for the one array and a different array of the option
prices x for the chosen strike prices.
>
Create the for loop to compute the implied volatility for each pair of strike and option
prices.
>
Create yet another array this time pairing the particular implied volatilities with their
respective strike prices which can be plotted.
>
Plot the volatility smile being sure not to forget to set the ranges for both the volatility
and for the strike prices.
>
C, the at-the-money Put price P, the time to maturity T, and the at-the-money strike price
K. The at-the-money numbers can be found in the options page of your company at the
border of the highlighted and non-highlighted prices. Try to keep T as accurate as
possible (denom = 12 for months, 52 for weeks, 252 for days)
Name of Company:Exxon Mobil
>
To find the riskless interest rate, r, we use the equation for r solved through the Put-Call
Parity.
>
Create two arrays choosing strike prices K that have high volumes (can be found on the
right side of the chart of option data) for the one array and a different array of the option
prices x for the chosen strike prices.
>
Create the for loop to compute the implied volatility for each pair of strike and option
prices.
>
Create yet another array this time pairing the particular implied volatilities with their
respective strike prices which can be plotted.
>
Plot the volatility smile being sure not to forget to set the ranges for both the volatility
and for the strike prices.
>
>