Frost & Sullivan Workshop: Global Mobility and Megacities

Presentation at the 2011 EDTA Conference and Annual Meeting

April 19, 2011

Agenda for the day EDTA Conference, April 19, 2011

Presentation: Impact of Urbanization and Rise of Megacities on Vehicle and

Technology Planning 40 min 15 min 10 min

Video BMW short films: Workshop Tools : Introduction

Working session and brainstorm: Teams (5-6) to evaluate and analyze new opportunities and business models 20 min 30 min 05 min

Team Presentations Summary

Table of Contents

Mega-trends to Impact the Automotive Industry

Overview of Mega and Smart Cities

New Urban Mobility Business Models

New Product Development Opportunities and Impact of Urbanization on Technology

Discussions

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Mega-trends to Impact the Automotive Industry

Urbanization

Infrastructure

Geo-socialization

New Business Models

Power to the Middle Class and Gen Y

E-Mobility

Digital World (high speed

broadband, Wireless, etc)
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Health, Wellness and Well-being

High Speed Rail

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Table of Contents

Mega-trends to Impact the Automotive Industry

Urbanization & Overview of Mega and Smart Cities

New Urban Mobility Business Models

New Product Development Opportunities and Impact of Urbanization on Technology

Discussions

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Three Main Trends in Urbanisation: Development of Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors

MEGA CITY
City With A Minimum Population Of 10 Million EXAMPLE: Greater London

MEGA REGIONS
Cities Combining With Suburbs To Form Regions. (Population over 10 Million)

MEGA CORRIDORS
The Corridors Connecting Two Major Cities or Mega Regions EXAMPLE: Hong Kong-ShenzhenGuangzhou in China (Population 120 Million)

EXAMPLE: Johannesburg and Pretoria (forming Jo-Toria)

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Cities Globally Will Become Networked, Integrated and Branded Polarization of Vehicle Sizes Is Creating Demand for EVs in Mega Cities
1950s Urbanisation 2020s : Branded Cities
Living areas expanding well outside of the peninsular loop in San Francisco

Creation of the historic centre and districts

2000s Suburbanisation

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Urban sprawl, first highways and ring road

2015s Network City

Most offices moved to the first belt suburbs except non cost-sensitive activities: city centres becoming shopping areas (small scale deliveries) for expensive goods and living areas for double income, no kids households. cars needed to go to the working areas/malls outside first and second belt. Industry offices moved out to the first belt area as also medium income families while manufacturing facilities and low-medium income families relocated in the second and third belt areas with logistics centres created on 2nd belt periphery. Green wave families living outside cities in outer suburban area. Hypermarkets and malls mostly created inside the third belt low cost area (large scales deliveries). cars needed to go from outer suburban areas to join the intermodal public transport and working areas in third and second belt.

Third suburban area and cities along the highways created, ring road overblown by the urban sprawl

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Smart Cities Green Replaced by SMART Concepts

Smart Cities Energy, City Planning and ICT to define the future of Mobility

Smart Diamond to define Smart city

S Governance S Citizen S Business

S City Planning

S Buildings
Source: Frost & Sullivan

S Mobility

S Energy S ICT

These 3 elements Will define the Smart Mobility of the future

S Energy Renewable energy, Smart Grid Infrastructure S City Planning EV Charging, Smart Grid, Bus Rapid Transit, Parking Infrastructure, Congestion Charging S Information Communication & Technology Telematics, Navigation, Smart Metering, Internet Technologies
Legend: Citys Infrastructure Citys User community Citys Green Ecology

SMART CITY CASE STUDY: Amsterdam - Ordering over 200 Leafs from Nissan with key objective to reduce Particulate Matter in City
SMART MOBILITY 39% commute by bicycle 400+ Km of dedicated cycle route To familiarize electric bicycle taxis SMART LIVING SMART WORKING PLACE

200 charging stations by 2012; 10,000 EVs By 2015 Encourage car sharing
Cheaper parking slots at public transit stations to park cars and board trains

1200 homes to feature smart meters and energy management systems. 14% reduction in energy use is expected of this smart meter project

P+R

SMART PUBLIC SPACE

ITO tower is testing the use of smart meters and energy efficient appliances to cut energy consumption. Design aesthetics of building absorb natural light and air from the environment thereby keep artificial lighting and HVAC use to minimum. SMART COMMUTE to WORK

Yearly reduction of parking spaces and increase of tariffs inside the city. 30 kmph speed limits on 80% of roads inside the city makes bicycles faster by at least 50% on a A-B trip.
154 shore power connections to charge inland cargo vessels and river cruisers to be installed by 2012

*****

Utrechtsestraat the popular narrow shopping street downtown is to feature energy efficient street lighting, Sustainable tram stops with solar powered displays and billboards Solar powered garbage bins with built in compacters will be installed on this street

25 MNCs have jointly signed to reduce home to work car miles by 10% by 2012. Incentive/free bicycles to employees Free & protected bike parks at offices to encourage cycle use. Work from home if necessary

Smart Market Opportunity: Convergence of Technology Will Lead to Convergence of Competition

Energy/Infrastructure Players
T&D Technology Power Electronics Renewable Energy Integrated Distribution Management Substation Automation AMI-Enabled Metering Etc.

IP Networks Digital Technology Analysis Software Wireless Communication Technology Integration Network Security Etc.

Building Automation Demand-Side Management Connectivity of devices Monitoring and Sensing Smart Grid Integration Etc.

IT Players

Automation/Building Control Players

Source: Frost & Sullivan.

Gen Y and the Rise of Middle Class

World Population in 2020 : 2.56 Billion Population in Age Group 15 to 34 Important Customer of the Future for City Cars
World Population: Breakdown by Region (Global), 2020
2 1.8 1.6 0.5 1.4 0.1 1.2 0.1 1 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.4
1.8

2010

2020
7.55 Billion
1.2

6.83 Billion
0.5

Around 37% of this Age Group Will Live in India and China Alone

Population (billion)

2.3

0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6

2.1

2.2

0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 North America 0.2 0.1 Latin America, C aribbean and Oceania 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5

0.6

2.6

0.2 0

0.3 0.1 Europe

12 . 21 . 26 . 17 .

0.4

0.3

0.4 0.2 C hina Rest of Asia

1.7

Africa

India

0-14 Years

15-34 Years

35-64 Years

65 Years and Above

Note: Gen Y : Population between 15 34 Years

Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations

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Generation Y: Goods and Services Catered to Values, Beliefs, Interest and Lifestyle
Personalisation and Individualisation
Techno Savvy and Connected 24 X 7 Gaming Gizmos Eco- Transport Civic and Environmentally Friendly Demanding and Impatient Fast and the Furious Instant Text Messaging

Personalised Search and News

Smart Phones Social Networking Profiles Bag-For-Life (Paper Bags Instead of Plastic) Facebook-on-the Move Instant Chat

Personalised Products Paperless Banking Microblogs

Speed Oriented Gaming (Car Racing)

Rise of the Middle Class in 2020: Over 1 Billion from India and China Alone
The middle class in Russia is defined as households with an annual income between $6000 and $30,000

140 Million

700 Million

400 Million

The middle class in China is defined as households with an annual income between $8,000 and $70,000

120 Million

The middle class in India is defined as households with an annual income between $5,000 and $220,000

The middle class in Brazil is defined as households with an annual income between $586 and $2,530

15 Million

Top 20 Megacities Regional Transportation Policies

Congestion , low emission zones and road user charging initiatives in the emerging economies will have a major impact on car mobility

Delhi Bus Rapid Transit Lanes

Mumbai

Beijing

Shanghai

Moscow

Seoul

New York

London

Tokyo

2011

2011

Metro/Subway

2011

Congestion Charging

Planned

Planned

2012

2012

Future

Planned

Future

Parking Cuts

Road use Charging/Ban

Yes

1 Week Day Ban

1 week Day Ban

1 Week Day Ban*

Future

EV/Hybrid Incentives

Bicycle Lanes

Emission Standard

Euro 4

Euro 4

Euro 4

Euro 4

Euro 3 Euro 4 by 2012

Euro 4

CAF 27.5mpg. 34.1 mpg by 2016

Euro 4 Euro 5 by 2011

25% reduction by 2015

Not planned

Existing currently

* Voluntary no road usage incentive

Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Top 20 Megacities Car Ownership Trend

Evolution of Megacities: Top 20 Megacities Car Ownership Growth (Global), 2009 - 2025

Population (Million) Tokyo New York London Mexico City Shanghai So Paulo Buenos Aires Mumbai Beijing Delhi Moscow Guangzhou 38.5 25.9 14.4 21.0 21.0 21.5 13.8 26.4 20.0 22.5 14.5 11.8

Per capita 2025 (USD) 46,494 67,591 57,746 33,795 32,952 28,001 43,581 21,224 25,000 21,335 42,759 36,332

Cars per 1000 2009 353 230 400 209 32 150 190 24 35 117 307 43

Cars per 1000 2025 340 220 340 270 122 335 350 72 155 250 475 173

Seoul

9.7

43,860

239

320

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Agenda

Key Trends in Urbanization

Overview of Mega and Smart Cities

New Urban Mobility Business Models

New Product Development Opportunities and Impact of Urbanization on Technology

Discussions

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High Speed Rail to Come to US

Overview of 13 high-speed rail corridors across 31 states.
Evolution of Megacities: High Speed Rain in U.S. (2009-2025)

California to connect Bay Area with LA through an ambitious $42bn program with construction starting in 2 years

Impact to Personal Mobility and Auto Industry 1. Air travel will diminish rapidly between the high speed rail link cities 2. Train operators could start offering integrated transport e.g. Car sharing 3. Will take congestion off highways, people will drive less long distance 4. Attractive cities for car sharing 5. Small city car sales will grow in these cities

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Car Sharing in North America

4.4 million members Forecast by 2016. Around 88% of NA Car Sharing Members are in the United States across 26 Car Sharing Programs
Evolution of Megacities: Car Sharing in North America (US and Canada), 2009 - 2025

2016 Potential
More than $ 3.3 billion in revenues

More than 4.4 million members

More than 72,000 vehicles in car sharing

Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Mobility Integrators (MI) New Players Entering the Market

MIs to Offer Innovative mobility solutions to complement commuters inter-modality and multimodality travel split

Telecom Operators

Transport Operators
Rail

Bus

Online Mobility Booking Agencies:

Long Distance Mobility

Car sharing

The Concept of a Dynamic Transport Solution Integrating Different Modes Under a Single Entity to make Personal Transportation Easy and Simple

Mobility Integrator

Bikes

Short Distance Urban Mobility

Payment Engine

Technology Solutions Provider

Technology Evolution

MOBILE 2.0 WEB 2.0

MIs will start exploiting the Web 2.0 and Mobile 2.0 Internet service to offer mobility-based applications (apps) on smart phones.

Source: Frost & Sullivan *The company logos mentioned are only for descriptive purpose

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Case Study - Mu by Peugeot (Mobility Integration by OEM)

Integrated Mobility On-demand Solutions Under One Roof

Evolution of Megacities: Case Study Mu by Peugeot (Global), 2009

Travel Services

Driving Behavior and Rewards

Generate income from the stock of vehicles sitting at dealerships

Working Concept
Pay subscription charges to get charging units

Create an account to use this scheme

Weekend Services

by

Peugeot

Personal Transport Solutions

Earn mobility (reward) points that can be used for select services

Hire services or products based on balance in charging units

Current Points of Sale Vehicle Accessories

Decrease spending by using the same infrastructure and staff
Brest Rennes Nantes

Servic e Units
Partnering with travel agencies, driving schools amongst others. Booking services on train, airplane travel and hotels. Discounts, prizes and member advantages.

Hiring Units
Micro-mobility solutions such as bicycles and scooters. Rental cars and vans. Vehicle accessories such as roof-boxes, cycle racks and child seats.

Paris
Lyon London Bristol

Expected to be expanded in key EU cities in 2010-2011

Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Agenda

Key Trends in Urbanization

Overview of Mega and Smart Cities

New Urban Mobility Business Models

New Product Development Opportunities and Impact of Urbanization on Technology

Discussions

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In Future, There Will be Shift from Cities Designed around Cars to Cars Designed around [Mega] Cities :
OEMS to Develop New Vehicles and Platforms
Evolution of Megacities: City Cars (Global), 2009 - 2025

City Cars In sync with the city Multiple Variants Pixo, Note and Cube Compact Vehicle length and width: less than 4,000mm x 1,675mm Low emissions: 1-litre engine, Electric vehicles in future Tight turning circle of 4.5m and power assisted steering for easy maneuvering in city traffic Parking system, Start Stop system, Nissan Connect, foldable rear seats, customizable setting

Megacity Vehicle be launched in 2013. Electro-mobility Zero emission vehicles (lithium ion battery with about 35 kWh capacity )

Electric driveline - Electric motor for quicker acceleration and zip drive.
Lighter drive Carbon fiber-reinforced plastic (CFRP) passenger cell and aluminum chassis.

Tata Nano to be launched as City Car in EU and NA (low cost car in India) Compact Vehicle length and width: 3099mm x 1,495mm Low emissions; sub 1 liter engine (624cc). Electric vehicle in future. Turning radius: 4m. Low vehicle weight: 600 kg (1,300lb)

Logos are only for descriptive purpose. Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Characteristics of The Sub-A Segment

Microcar Market: Characteristics of Sub-A Segment (Europe), 2010
Technical Specification Sub-A Segment A-Segment

Reference Model Gordon Murray T.27 Length (mm) 2,500 TATA Motors Nano EV 3,090 Mitsubishi i-MiEV 3,475

Width (mm) Height (mm)

Power Capacity (kW) Seating Capacity (nos.) Maximum Speed (kmph)

1,300 1,600
15-40 1-4

1,487 1,585

1,475 1,610
47 4 ~130

75-140 (Average Top Speed = 110)

Maximum Driving Range (km)

100-160 (Average Driving Range = 130)

~160
Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Impact on Vehicle Technology Planning

Opportunity for OEMs to Develop Technologies for Customers Unmet Needs

Evolution of Megacities: Impact on Vehicle Technology Planning (Global), 1950 - 2025

CO2 less than 80 gm/km vehicles

Vehicle length of less than 3500mm

Voice recognition technology

Limited boot space and more head and leg room

Start Stop System for frequent stop in traffic Customised and personalised comfort functions Autonomous parking assist

Panoramic roofs

Lightweight construction

Low speed collision avoidance for enhanced safety and pedestrian protection

Simple and easy to use HMI 3G/Wi-Fi Connectivity - V2V and V2X communication Ergonomically designed comfortable seats for long commuting hours

Facebook on wheels, Internet in cars

Turning radius <4.3m to drive in congested streets

Navigation systems with route guidance and traffic information

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Smart vehicle access

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E-Mobility
Over 40 Million Electric 2 Wheelers and 4 Wheelers will be Sold Annually Around the Globe in 2020 and over 60% of these will be sold in Large Cities
Evolution of Megacities: E-Mobility (Global), 2009 - 2025

Total 30 million 2 Wheelers (2020)

Total 10 Million 4 Wheelers (2020)

Sanyo Enable

XM 3000 Electric Moped

The GEM Peapod

The Smith Newton

Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Connected Mobility

Smart Connectivity Between Home and Office and from Personal Device to Car with Cloud Character will Become Increasingly Important in Car of the Future

Internet Radio Cloud Computing

Smarter Home EV Infrastructure

Infotainment and Mobile Phone

Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Future IT Mobility Solutions for Integrated and Interoperable Transport Infrastructure:

RTI: Ticketing, scheduling, CCTV and incident management, UTMC integration Smart Ticketing/AFC: Innovative payment, integration with RTI EVs IT: grid/energy management, billing systems, comms & cloud

Connectivity: opportunity for built, bought & beamed in, providing a hybrid open architecture service and network comms V2V: ANPR, DSRC, vehicle positioning

LMS: Signalling, infotainment, diagnostics, energy management &GPS

Car Sharing: technology to locate, reserve and unlock nearest car on mobile, provide info via apps/GPS Congestion Charging: technology migration from ANPR Tag& Beacon GPS, and advanced payment and info on mobile

Commercial Vehicle Telematics: Vehicle/driver Source: ETSI management, and on board tracking, computer, navigation
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Source: ETSI

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Mega-City App Store

From Car Sharing to Diagnostics to EVs, Apps for Cars are becoming a Value Added Development
Evolution of Megacities: App store from Megacity Vehicles (Global), 1950 - 2025

Car Sharing Vehicle Access

News Online radio news, RSS feeds reader

Remote Vehicle Horn/Light Flash Security App,

Integrated Telematics eCall/bCall/Toll ing

EV Billing

3D Navigation with Video Support

Multimodal Transport apps for real time bus/transit

Social Networking e.g. Twitter, Facebook,

Remote Car Starter/ Security

Diagnostics TPMS, service/oil notifications,

Interior PreCondition App

Real time Traffic Information

Car/Van Pooling car and van pooling apps,

IP TV live tv using internet, eg. .SPB TV,

Vehicle Access converting phone in to smart key

Real Time Video Traffic Feeds

Charging Station Locator

Dynamic POI Finder

Car Sharing Choosing, Reservation and locating cars,

Internet Radio e.g. Pandora, RadioTime

Vehicle Locator

Emergency Assistance App

State of Charge Monitoring App

Turn by Turn Navigation

Mobility

Entertainment

Vehicle Access/ Security

Telematics

Electric Vehicles

Navigation

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Source: Frost & Sullivan

Future of Urban Mobility Conclusions and Recommendations

More than 60% of the population will live in cities by 2025 Over 30 Megacities, 110 Smart/Sustainable Cities and Mega Corridors New integrated urban mobility models will emerge including car sharing

Impact on Personal Mobility

Multimodal Mobility

E - Mobility

Small and Micro Mobility

Shared Mobility (Car Sharing/Pooling)

OEMs to develop new Mega City vehicles Mega City vehicle s will have new Urban technologies

Last Mile Connectivity

New Technology in Cars (e.g. Internet Radio)

V2V & V2I Communication & Wireless Connectivity

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Thank you!

Urban Mobility Tracker, Q1 report

page 35

Agenda for the day EDTA Conference, April 19, 2011

Presentation: Impact of Urbanization and Rise of Megacities on Vehicle and

Technology Planning 40 min 15 min 10 min

Video BMW short films: Workshop Tools : Introduction

Working session and brainstorm: Teams (5-6) to evaluate and analyze new opportunities and business models 20 min 30 min 05 min

Team Presentations Summary

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Objectives of the Workshop

Aim : Evaluate new business models and out of box business opportunities for your industry in relation to MC & Future Mobility

Methodology :
Brainstorm within your group for 20 minutes using the Optopus Capture the results in a flip chart

Short-list 2 or 3 opportunities and use the Option Evaluation Grid to conduct the scoring
Nominate a leader to present your group findings Please present using weather forecast presentation tips (5 minutes, top level and most relevant points)

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The OPTOPUS (or Option Octopus) Brainstorming Tool for Generation Strategic Market Opportunities
Market Sectors Geography Customer Segments

Divestment or Outsource

OPTIONS

Value Creation

Acquisition
Alliance

Value Delivery

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The OPTOPUS (or Option Octopus) Brainstorming Tool

The Option Octopus (Optopus) is a tool to provide a more structured approach to the brainstorming of strategic options. The Optopus assumes that there are 8 main categories of growth option into which any ideas can be mapped. As such, the Optopus enables the mapping of options under the 8 key headings and is therefore a simple framework around which growth options can be brainstormed and listed.

The 8 arms of the Optopus: Geography Options for growth via expansion into new geographical regions Market Sectors Options for growth via expansion into new market sectors Divestment/Outsource Change of business direction (e.g. outsourcing production) Acquisition Options for growth via merger or acquisition activities Alliance Options for growth via implementation of strategic alliances/partnerships Value Delivery Growth via the development of new channels to market Value Creation Growth via the provision of additional services etc. (up-sell/cross-sell) Customer Segments Options for growth via targeting new customers or applications

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Strategic Option Grid - Tool for Evaluating Options

Options
Criteria Strategic Attractiveness Financial Attractiveness Implementation Difficulty Uncertainty and Risk Acceptability to Stakeholders

Option1

Option 2

Option 3

The Strategic Options Grid is a detailed tool that is ideal for analyzing and prioritizing mutually exclusive strategic options. This tool assumes that the overall strategic attractiveness of an option can be evaluated by looking at 5 distinct variables: market attractiveness; financial attractiveness; implementation difficulty; risk/uncertainty; and strategic fit/stakeholder attractiveness.

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BMW Films - Mobility

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Contacts

Robert Duronio Consulting Director Automotive & Transportation P: 703.870.5801 Email: robert.duronio@frost.com

Brian Drake Director, Business Development Automotive & Transportation P: 248.836.8260 Email: brian.drake@frost.com

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