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Initiating coverage
3rd March 2011
Company Overview
Oberoi Realty Limited (Oberoi) is a real estate player operating in Mumbai with the focus on premium development projects. It is primarily engaged in the development of residential, office space, hospitality, retail and social-infrastructure projects. It has a vast experience with strong execution capabilities and reputed brand name in Mumbai sub-urban market. It also develops land owned by a third party on a revenue-share basis.
Investment Thesis
Oberoi is a debt-free company operating in the lucrative Mumbai region and well positioned to take advantage of declining land prices by adding to its land bank. In addition, we believe it would be flexible on pricing in case the market witnesses any slowdown in volumes in the current environment. It currently rented few properties, Oberoi Mall (0.55mnsqft), Commerz-1 (0.38msf of commercial space) and Westin Hotel (0.36msf), which contribute approximately Rs1100mn (10% of total FY2010 revenues). Moreover, it expects to lease approximately 5.34mnsqft by the end of 2013, which is likely to give ample cushion to the company on cash inflow upfront, going forward. No leverage and positive operating cash flow gives a competitive edge to the company over its competitors for working capital requirement and further for the acquisition of land for high value projects. In addition, it is consistently reporting superior margins and profitability ratios over the past three years. Strong business insight in the past especially in relation to land acquisition at the right location and at low cost coupled with timely execution and delivery of projects highlights managements extensive experience and understanding of business & economic dynamics. We expect the company to showcase robust top-line growth. Revenues are likely to grow at a CAGR of 21% over FY2010-FY2012E while EBITDA income is expected to increase at a CAGR of 20% over the same period.
Price-Volume Graph
15000000 13500000 12000000 10500000 9000000 7500000 6000000 4500000 3000000 1500000 0 O ct-10 D e c-10 Ja n -11 310.0 290.0 270.0 250.0 230.0 210.0 190.0 170.0 150.0 R s.
Source: BSE
Performance Overview
Date End FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 (E) FY 2012 (E)
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Fig: Shareholding Pattern (Dec 10) Fig: Relative Performance
P e rce n ta g e
Promoter 79%
Sensex
Oberoi
D e c -1 0
Business Description
Business Segments
Residential
Office Space
Retail
Hospitality
N o v-1 0
Social Infra.
Sale
Sale/Lease
Sale/Lease
Owned
Lease
Oberois key projects in Mumbai are Oberoi Garden City (11.2mnsf) in Goregaon, Oberoi Splendor (3.1mnsf) in Andheri, Oasis (2.1mnsf) in Worli and Oberoi Exotica (3.2mnsf) in Mulund. It has 93% of its landbank in Mumbai while remaining 7% are in pune. It works with various reputed international architects and domestic architects and contractors. It plans to expand its footprint in other cities like Pune, Delhi, Banglore. It currently holds 31.7% interest in Pune project to develop Sangam City Township Pvt. Ltd, a SPV, to develop 56 acres of land.
Ja n -1 1
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Fig: Segment-wise Ongoing projects (%)
1% 37% 2% 3%
13%
2%
Residential
Investment Rationale
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Fig: Location-wise Landbank portfolio (%)
7% 12% 17%
8% 1%
18%
17% 63%
Residential Hospitality
Retail
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With home prices touching the roof, buyers seem to have started withdrawing from the market, indicated by a decline in home loan growth with various lenders. Sales are down in Mumbai and in the suburbs and developers have repayments to make. Hence, price cut looks largely evident which would attract fresh demand at lower price. Inspite of the interest rate hikes, anticipation of cooling down of property prices, lower absorption and decline in liquidity in recent few months, the company has witnessed robust queries and demand for its projects. We believe the company is well placed in below mentioned areas where significant residential activities have taken place since past few years. Details of ongoing and planned projects location-wise as well as segment-wise:
Particulars
Andheri kurla Goregoan Mulund worli Juhu Total Sqft (in mn)
0.1
0.2 1.3
5.8
5.7
3.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
1.3
0.3
1.7
18.2
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7.0
m sqft n
6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.4 Sep-10 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 FY2011 Office space Retail
FY2015 Hotel
30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% FY2009 FY2010 ROE FY2011E ROCE FY2012E 17%17% 25% 25% 18% 16% 17% 19%
Rs mn
7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E 1205 5237 3968
6438
FY2012E
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Flagship Project: Oberoi Garden city to add significant value to NAV
Oberoi Garden City, a flagship mixed development project spread across 75.2 acres of land with the saleable area of 11.2mnsqft in Goregaon, is likely to add significant value to the company in the near future. Currently, it is developing a township project wherein a residential block, retail mall, hotel and commercial space are already operational and planned. The details of the township project are as follows: Oberoi Exquisite-I: The Company has constructed more than 20% at the end of Q3 FY2011 and sold almost 54%. It has commenced recognizing the revenues from this project. Oberoi Townhouse (villas) It has sold 1 unit during 9MFY2011 out of total 7 units available for sale. Oberoi Mall: Current occupancy rate is 92%. It has generated rental income of Rs487.8mn during 9M FY2011. Commerz- I, Oberoi garden city: Current occupancy rate is 77% and is in advanced talk to further rent out 10% of the area by the end of FY2011. It has generated rental income of Rs340.6mn in 9M FY2011. Oberoi- Westin Hotel: The Company has made an investment in hotel project (269 rooms), which is operating with the occupancy rate of 60% with the Average Room Rate of Rs7800, contributed revenue of Rs430.7mn in 9M FY2011.
Area Project : Oberoi Garden City Oberoi- Exquisite I(Goregaon-E) Oberoi- Exquisite II(Goregaon-E) Oberoi- Exquisite III(Goregaon-E) Oberoi Townhouse(villas)- Goregaon-E Commerz- I, Oberoi Garden City, Goregaon-E Commerz- II, Phase-I Oberoi Garden City, Goregaon-E Commerz- II, Phase-II Oberoi Garden City, Goregaon-E Oberoi Garden City, Oberoi Mall, Goregaon- E Oberoi Garden City - Westin Hotel ,Goregaon-E Oberoi Garden City, School, Goregaon- E Source: Company data, Wallfort Research mn sqft 1.37 1.33 2.50 0.03 0.36 0.73 1.66 0.53 0.38 0.53 Type Residential Residential Residential Residential Commercial Commercial Commercial Retail Hotel Social Infra Status Ongoing Ongoing Planned Completed Completed Ongoing Ongoing Completed Completed Completed Completion date Nov-13 March-14 June-15 N/A N/A Dec-11 Dec-12 N/A N/A N/A NAV (Rs mn) 7099 5794 10420 173 4478 4590 7300 6370 1297 2646
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Management believes that the construction activities is likely to start according to the planned schedule and also initiated advanced talks with a leading international hotel chain and a leading international general contractor for this mixed-use luxury project.
Area Oasis Realty Oasis- Residential, Worli Oasis- Commercial, Worli Oasis Realty- Retail Mall, Worli Oasis Hotel, Worli mn sqft 1.54 0.24 0.12 0.22 Type Residential Commercial Retail Hotel Status Initial stage Initial stage Initial stage Initial stage Completion date Dec-14 Dec-12 Dec-12 Dec-14 NAV (Rs mn) 23224 1176 911 684
We have not taken into consideration two planned projects in our valuation, primarily due to lack of visibility to start construction activities by the company on it. The summery of the ongoing projects and our NAV calculation is as follows:
Type of Oberoi Splender Oberoi- Splender I(Andheri-E) Oberoi- Splender II(Andheri-E), Grande at JVLR Oberoi Splender-Comm.I, Andheri-E Oberoi Splender Prisma-Comm.II, JVLR, Andheri-E Oberoi Splender - IT Tower, Andheri-E Oberoi Splender School, Andheri- E Source: Company data, Wallfort Research Project Residential Residential Commercial Commercial Commercial Social Infra Status Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing Planned Planned Selling price per sqft 16000.00 12000.00 n/a n/a n/a n/a Work completed till 31st Dec, 2010 86% Less than 20% Initial stage Initial stage n/a n/a Area Sold 90% 30% n/a n/a n/a n/a NAV (Rs mn) 4093 1323 1192 2780 n/a n/a
Proven management record, strong brand name enabled company to monetize its projects on a timely manner
Timely execution and delivering of projects coupled with companys cautious approach in acquiring land during 2007-08 (when the prices were at the pick), has proven track record and quality of the management in decision making. Furthermore, it has well established and respected brand name for its quality work and premium residential projects in north Mumbai area which we believe gives competitive edge to the company to attract the customers.
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Peers Comparison
Particulars (Rs mn) (FY2010) Revenues y-o-y growth Oberoi 7836 84% 4672 60% 4574 58% 14.1 25% N/A 0.00 HDIL 15021 (13%) 7893 53% 5722 38% 16.0 10% 1.50 0.80 Orbit 4871 72% 1893 39% 950 20% 20.2 14% 1.79 1.05 DLF 74209 (26%) 35012 47% 17300 23% 10.2 7% 2.60 0.70
Fig: Quarterly Performance Highlights (Rs mn) Particulars Net Sales Total Expenditure (% of sales) EBIDTA EBIDTA Margin Adjusted net profit Net profit Margin Q3FY11 3,952 1,518 38% 2,434 62% 2,017 51% Q3FY10 2,075 758 37% 1,317 63% 1,272 61% Y-o-Y 90% 100% N/A 85% (100bps) 59% (1000bps) Q2FY11 1,700 694 41% 1,005 59% 954 56% Q-o-Q 132% 119% N/A 142% 300bps 111% (500bps) 9MFY11 7,250 2,967 41% 4,284 59% 3,767 52% 9MFY10 6,174 2,564 42% 3,610 58% 3,486 56% Y-o-Y 17% 16% N/A 19% 100bps 8% (400bps)
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Oberoi has been allowed by Supreme Court (SC) to start construction for its Mulund project (Exotica). However, SC asked Oberoi to take prior permission from Ministry of Environment & Forest (MoEF), which may take few more months for clearance and therefore, Oberoi expects to launch the project by Q1 2012. There is still arbitration going on for the acquisition of Juhu Hotel (Tulip Star). Management is trying to settle the things out of the court for this deal. We have not valued this project in our valuation.
Financial Projections
We expect the company to showcase robust top-line growth. Revenues are likely to grow at a CAGR of 21% over FY2010-FY2012E. We anticipate the company to register revenues of Rs10,605mn and Rs13,775mn in FY2011E and FY2012E, respectively.
FY2010
FY2011E
FY2012E
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Fig: Residential- Sales Volume trend
2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 mn sqft 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011E FY 2012E 1.01 0.80 0.62 1.3
1.83
0.82
Due to its lower land costs and balanced revenue stream (Rental and investment income), we anticipate Oberois EBITDA income of Rs6,298mn in FY2011E and Rs8,077mn in FY2012E. However, we expect EBITDA margin to suppress for FY2011E and FY2012E to 59.4% and 58.6%, respectively, primarily due to the increase in raw material costs and ramp up in construction activities to complete most of the projects. We expect adjusted net income to increase by 21.4% y-o-y to Rs5,554mn in FY2011E and 27.5% y-o-y to Rs7,081mn in FY2012E, on account of zero levered balance-sheet while net profit margin to decline at 52.4% and 51.4% in FY2011E and FY2012E, respectively, due to the carry-on effect of anticipated decline in EBITDA margins over the same period. Hence, we expect EPS of Rs15.3 and Rs19.5 for FY2011E and FY2012E, respectively.
Fig: Net profit trend
8077 6298 Rs mn 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2515 4574 5554 7081
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011E
FY2012E
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Valuation
We initiate coverage on the company with a BUY recommendation and target price of Rs299, indicating a potential upside of 29.0% from current levels Considering company's superior project profile, low cost project acquisition strategy and execution focus, we believe target price at par with NAV is fairly valued. Its strong presence in the Mumbai market gives better visibility of demand. Particulars Residential GAV Commercial GAV Retail Malls Hotel/Hospitality Social Infra Total GAV Less: Unpaid amount on landbank Less: Debt Add: Cash Total NAV No. of shares (in mn) NAV per share Rs mn 59474 21516 7281 1981 2646 92898 0 0 16000 108898 364 299
7346
25995 50168
23% 64%
9389 Oberoi Garden City- Goregaon- East Oasis Realty- Worli- Annie Besant Rd Oberoi Splender- Andheri-East Oberoi Exotica- I & II, Mulund-West
Residential GAV Hotel/Hospitality Commercial GAV Social Infra Retail Malls
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Financials
Income Statement Date End Net Sales Expenditure EBIDTA Depreciation EBIT Interest Profit before Tax Tax Reported Net Profit No of Equity Shares* Adjusted EPS *IPO adjusted Balance Sheet FY 09 26 13839 571 14436 0 107 107 14543 2736 3851 6586 150 7122 272 1669 2725 5 31 3962 7800 7 14543 (Rs.mn) FY 12E 3642 37927 0 41568 0 0 0 41568 7268 10539 17807 790 8975 604 14433 9642 17 167 10536 22969 2.0 41568 Net profit after tax Depreciation Other adjutsments Change in w. capital Net cash from Opr. Act.(A) Net cash from invt. Act.(B) Net cash from fin. Act.(c) Inc/(dec) in cash Cash at the beginning Cash at the end FY 09 4254 1693 2561 73 2488 4 2484 177 2307 324.6 7.7 FY 10 7836 3164 4672 91 4582 0 4581 226 4355 324.6 14.1 FY 11E 10605 4306 6298 114 6184 0 6184 980 5204 364.2 15.3 (Rs.mn) FY 12E 13775 5697 8077 148 7929 0 7929 1250 6679 364.2 19.4 Category Margin Ratio EBIDTA Margin Operating Margin Net profit Margin Profitability Ratios ROCE RONW ROA Du Pont Analysis PAT / PBT PBT / EBIT EBIT / Net Sales Net Sales / Total Assets Total Assets / Equity ROE Valuation Ratios Share Capital Reserves Preference Networth Secured Loans Unsecured Loans Total Loan Total Liab. Net Block Cap WIP Total Fixed Assets Investment Current Assets Inventory Sundry Debtors Cash & Bank Bal Loan and Advances Other current assets Current Liabilities Provisions Sundry Creditors Net Current Assets Deff. tax asset/ liab. (net) Total Assets 6226 404 3631 6240 17 97 6746 9675 2.0 18637 7669 494 13264 7954 17 131 8259 21008 2.0 34487 2887 15392 359 18637 0 0 0 18637 3068 5103 8171 790 3642 30845 0 34487 0 0 0 34487 5075 7612 12687 790 EV/EBITDA EV/ Net Sales Leverage Ratios Debt-Equity Ratio Debt-Asset Ratio Turnover Ratios Fixed Assts Working Capital Inventory Total Assets Liquidity Ratios Current Ratio Quick Ratio Interest Coverage 2.5 0.8 3.0 Cashflow statement 2523 73 4723 (1322) 1205 1652 (1648) 1208 461 1669 4576 91 0 513 5237 (2832) (443) 1961 1669 3631 5554 114 0 (1700) 3968 (4631) 10296 9633 3631 13264 1.9 1.0 0.0 1.9 1.0 0.0 1.8 1.0 0.0 (Rs mn) 7081 148 0 (792) 6438 (5268) 0 1170 13264 14433 1.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 1.0 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.4 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.9 17.9 16.3 9.7 12.1 7.2 9.5 5.5 as at 31st March FY 10 FY 11E 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 1.3 17% 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.3 1.4 25% 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 1.2 16% 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.3 1.3 17% 17% 17% 17% 25% 25% 25% 18% 16% 16% 19% 17% 17% 58% 56% 59% 60% 58% 58% 59% 58% 52% 59% 58% 51% Ratio Analysis FY 09 FY 10 FY 11E FY 12E
* Other Adjustment = Share in Profits/(Losses) of Associates (net) + Share of loss transferred to minority + Preacqusition profits adjusted against goodwill
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Kavin C Bloomer
Tilokchand P. Ostwal
Jimmy Bilimoria
Source:Company data
Independent Director
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Disclaimer: This Document has been prepared by Wallfort Research (Wallfort Financial Services LTD).The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Wallfort Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Wallfort Research opinion and is meant for general information only. Wallfort Research desk, its directors, officers or employees shall not in anyway be responsible for the contents stated herein. Wallfort Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation to buy any securities. Wallfort Research, its affiliates and their employees may from time to time hold positions in securities referred to herein. Wallfort Research or its affiliates may from time to time solicit from or perform investment banking or other services for any company mentioned in this document. Disclosure: Wallfort Financial Services Ltd. may hold a position in the stock(s) recommended above.
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