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CHAPTER 1

Chapter Outline 1.1 Populations and Samples 1.2 Sampling a Population of Existing Units 1.3 Sampling a Process

1.4 Ratio, Interval, Ordinal, and Nominative Scales of Measurement (Optional) 1.5 An Introduction to Survey Sampling (Optional)

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he subject of statistics involves the study of how to collect, summarize, and interpret data. Data are numerical facts and gures from which conclusions can be drawn. Such conclusions are important to the decision-making processes of many professions and organizations. For example, government ofcials use conclusions drawn from the latest data on unemployment and ination to make policy decisions. Financial planners use recent trends in stock market prices to make investment decisions. Businesses decide which products to develop and market by using data that reveal consumer preferences. Production supervisors use manufacturing data to

evaluate, control, and improve product quality. Politicians rely on data from public opinion polls to formulate legislation and to devise campaign strategies. Physicians and hospitals use data on the effectiveness of drugs and surgical procedures to provide patients with the best possible treatment. In this chapter we begin to see how we collect and analyze data. As we proceed through the chapter, we introduce several case studies. These case studies (and others to be introduced later) are revisited throughout later chapters as we learn the statistical methods needed to analyze the cases. Briey, we will begin to study four cases:

The Cell Phone Case. A bank estimates its cellular phone costs and decides whether to outsource management of its wireless resources by studying the calling patterns of its employees. The Marketing Research Case. A bottling company investigates consumer reaction to a new bottle design for one of its popular soft drinks.

The Coffee Temperature Case. A fast-food restaurant studies and monitors the temperature of the coffee it serves. The Car Mileage Case. To determine if it qualies for a federal tax credit based on fuel economy, an automaker studies the gas mileage of its new midsize model.

Statistical methods are very useful for learning about populations, which can be dened in various ways. We begin with the following denition: A population is a set of existing units (usually people, objects, or events). Examples of populations include (1) all of last years graduates of Dartmouth Colleges Master of Business Administration program, (2) all consumers who bought a cellular phone last year, (3) all accounts receivable invoices accumulated last year by The Procter & Gamble Company, (4) all Lincoln Town Cars that were produced last year, and (5) all res reported last month to the Tulsa, Oklahoma, re department. We usually focus on studying one or more characteristics of the population units. Any characteristic of a population unit is called a variable. For instance, if we study the starting salaries of last years graduates of the Dartmouth College MBA program, the variable of interest is starting salary. If we study the gasoline mileages obtained in city driving by last years Lincoln Town Car, the variable of interest is gasoline mileage in city driving. We carry out a measurement to assign a value of a variable to each population unit. For example, we might measure the starting salary of an MBA graduate to the nearest dollar. Or we might measure the gasoline mileage obtained by a car in city driving to the nearest one-tenth of a mile per gallon by conducting a mileage test on a driving course prescribed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). If the possible measurements are numbers that represent quantities (that is, how much or how many), then the variable is said to be quantitative. For example, starting salary and gasoline mileage are both quantitative. However, if we simply record into which of several categories a population unit falls, then the variable is said to be qualitative or categorical. Examples of categorical variables include (1) a persons gender, (2) the make of an automobile, and (3) whether a person who purchases a product is satised with the product.1

1

Optional Section 1.4 discusses two types of quantitative variables (ratio and interval) and two types of qualitative variables (ordinal and nominative).

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4

Chapter 1 An Introduction to Business Statistics

If we measure each and every population unit, we have a population of measurements (sometimes called observations). If the population is small, it is reasonable to do this. For instance, if 150 students graduated last year from the Dartmouth College MBA program, it might be feasible to survey the graduates and to record all of their starting salaries. In general: If we examine all of the population measurements, we say that we are conducting a census of the population. Often the population that we wish to study is very large, and it is too time-consuming or costly to conduct a census. In such a situation, we select and analyze a subset (or portion) of the population units. A sample is a subset of the units in a population. For example, suppose that 8,742 students graduated last year from a large state university. It would probably be too time-consuming to take a census of the population of all of their starting salaries. Therefore, we would select a sample of graduates, and we would obtain and record their starting salaries. When we measure the units in a sample, we say that we have a sample of measurements. We often wish to describe a population or sample. Descriptive statistics is the science of describing the important aspects of a set of measurements. As an example, if we are studying a set of starting salaries, we might wish to describe (1) how large or small they tend to be, (2) what a typical salary might be, and (3) how much the salaries differ from each other. When the population of interest is small and we can conduct a census of the population, we will be able to directly describe the important aspects of the population measurements. However, if the population is large and we need to select a sample from it, then we use what we call statistical inference. Statistical inference is the science of using a sample of measurements to make generalizations about the important aspects of a population of measurements. For instance, we might use a sample of starting salaries to estimate the important aspects of a population of starting salaries. In the next section, we begin to look at how statistical inference is carried out.

Random samples If the information contained in a sample is to accurately reect the population under study, the sample should be randomly selected from the population. To intuitively illustrate random sampling, suppose that a small company employs 15 people and wishes to randomly select two of them to attend a convention. To make the random selections, we number the employees from 1 to 15, and we place in a hat 15 identical slips of paper numbered from 1 to 15. We thoroughly mix the slips of paper in the hat and, blindfolded, choose one. The number on the chosen slip of paper identies the rst randomly selected employee. Then, still blindfolded, we choose another slip of paper from the hat. The number on the second slip identies the second randomly selected employee. Of course, it is impractical to carry out such a procedure when the population is very large. It is easier to use a random number table. To show how to use such a table, we must more formally dene a random sample.2 A random sample is selected so that, on each selection from the population, every unit remaining in the population on that selection has the same chance of being chosen. To understand this denition, rst note that we can randomly select a sample with or without replacement. If we sample with replacement, we place the unit chosen on any particular selection back into the population. Thus we give this unit a chance to be chosen on any succeeding

2

Actually, there are several different kinds of random samples. The type we will dene is sometimes called a simple random sample. For brevitys sake, however, we will use the term random sample.

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1.2 Sampling a Population of Existing Units

selection. In such a case, all of the units in the population remain as candidates to be chosen for each and every selection. Randomly choosing two employees with replacement to attend a convention would make no sense because we wish to send two different employees to the convention. If we sample without replacement, we do not place the unit chosen on a particular selection back into the population. Thus we do not give this unit a chance to be selected on any succeeding selection. In this case, the units remaining as candidates for a particular selection are all of the units in the population except for those that have previously been selected. It is best to sample without replacement. Intuitively, because we will use the sample to learn about the population, sampling without replacement will give us the fullest possible look at the population. This is true because choosing the sample without replacement guarantees that all of the units in the sample will be different (and that we are looking at as many different units from the population as possible). In the following example, we illustrate how to use a random number table, or computergenerated random numbers, to select a random sample.

CHAPTER 1

Example 1.1 The Cell Phone Case: Estimating Cell Phone Costs3

Businesses and college students have at least two things in commonboth nd cellular phones to be nearly indispensable because of their convenience and mobility, and both often rack up unpleasantly high cell phone bills. Students high bills are usually the result of overagea student uses more minutes than his or her plan allows. Businesses also lose money due to overage, and, in addition, lose money due to underage when some employees do not use all of the (already paid-for) minutes allowed by their plans. Because cellular carriers offer more than 10,000 rate plans, it is nearly impossible for a business to intelligently choose calling plans that will meet its needs at a reasonable cost. Rising cell phone costs have forced companies having large numbers of cellular users to hire services to manage their cellular and other wireless resources. These cellular management services use sophisticated software and mathematical models to choose cost efcient cell phone plans for their clients. One such rm, MobileSense Inc. of Westlake Village, California, specializes in automated wireless cost management. According to Doug L. Stevens, Vice President of Sales and Marketing at MobileSense, cell phone carriers count on overage and underage to deliver almost half of their revenues. As a result, a companys typical cost of cell phone use can easily exceed 25 cents per minute. However, Mr. Stevens explains that by using MobileSense automated cost management to select calling plans, this cost can be reduced to 12 cents per minute or less. In this case we will demonstrate how a bank can use a random sample of cell phone users to study its cellular phone costs. Based on this cost information, the bank will decide whether to hire a cellular management service to choose calling plans for the banks employees. While the bank has over 10,000 employees on a variety of calling plans, the cellular management service suggests that by studying the calling patterns of cellular users on 500-minute plans, the bank can accurately assess whether its cell phone costs can be substantially reduced. The bank has 2,136 employees on a 500-minute-per-month plan with a monthly cost of $50. The overage charge is 40 cents per minute, and there are additional charges for long distance and roaming. The bank will estimate its cellular cost per minute for this plan by examining the number of minutes used last month by each of 100 randomly selected employees on this 500-minute plan. According to the cellular management service, if the cellular cost per minute for the random sample of 100 employees is over 18 cents per minute, the bank should benet from automated cellular management of its calling plans. In order to randomly select the sample of 100 cell phone users, the bank will make a numbered list of the 2,136 users on the 500-minute plan. This list is called a frame. The bank can then use a random number table, such as Table 1.1(a), to select the needed sample. To see how this is done, notice that any single-digit number in the table is assumed to have been randomly selected from the digits 0 to 9. Any two-digit number in the table is assumed to have been randomly selected from the numbers 00 to 99. Any three-digit number is assumed to have been randomly

3

The authors would like to thank Mr. Doug L. Stevens, Vice President of Sales and Marketing, at MobileSense Inc., Westlake Village, California, for his help in developing this case.

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T A B L E 1.1 Chapter 1 Random Numbers

(b) MINITAB output of 100 different, four-digit random numbers between 1 and 2136

705 1990 1007 111 1732 838 1053 582 757 354 663 1629 1332 1832 514 831 928 1131 766 1902 69 1650 272 1466 1787 1699 1567 40 182 1500 378 1128 2036 1257 169 1286 1209 2049 7 1227 2087 2098 567 1533 585 372 743 728 1046 918 1468 1703 1977 2091 1448 388 154 265 1581 1255 1097 1486 1144 1262 1102 116 1535 503 1709 222 1742 659 613 18 2107 397 1959 1299 1021 1569 1759 667 1160 660 468 609 43 1152 338 1477 320 1992 1099 407 277 532 1981 955 1885 1333

33276 03427 92737 85689 08178 51259 60268 94904 58586 09998 14346 74103 24200 87308 07351 85590 90511 27156 20285 74461 63990 44919 01915 17752 19509 61666 15227 64161 07684 86679 79936 69445 33488 52267 13916 16308 19885 04146 14513 06691 30168 25306 38005 00256 92420 56865 18663 36320 67689 47564 60756 55322 18594 83149 76988 90229 76468 94342 45834 60952 05859 72695 17617 93394 81056 92144 44819 29852 98736 13602 04734 26384 28728 15398 61280 90106 52180 30015 01511 97735 49442 01188 71585 23495 51851 59193 58151 35806 46557 50001 78188 90322 74952 89868 90707 40719 55157 64951 35749 58104 32812 44592 22851 18510 94953

selected from the numbers 000 to 999, and so forth. Note that the table entries are segmented into groups of ve to make the table easier to read. Because the total number of cell phone users on the 500-minute plan (2,136) is a four-digit number, we arbitrarily select any set of four digits in the table (we have circled these digits). This number, which is 0511, identies the rst randomly selected user. Then, moving in any direction from the 0511 (up, down, right, or leftit does not matter which), we select additional sets of four digits. These succeeding sets of digits identify additional randomly selected users. Here we arbitrarily move down from 0511 in the table. The rst seven sets of four digits we obtain are 0511 7156 0285 4461 3990 4919 1915

(See Table 1.1(a)these numbers are enclosed in a rectangle.) Since there are no users numbered 7156, 4461, 3990, or 4919 (remember only 2,136 users are on the 500-minute plan), we ignore these numbers. This implies that the rst three randomly selected users are those numbered 0511, 0285, and 1915. Continuing this procedure, we can obtain the entire random sample of 100 users. Notice that, because we are sampling without replacement, we should ignore any set of four digits previously selected from the random number table. While using a random number table is one way to select a random sample, this approach has a disadvantage that is illustrated by the current situation. Specically, since most four-digit random numbers are not between 0001 and 2136, obtaining 100 different, four-digit random numbers between 0001 and 2136 will require ignoring a large number of random numbers in the random number table, and we will in fact need to use a random number table that is larger than Table 1.1(a). Although larger random number tables are readily available in books of mathematical and statistical tables, a good alternative is to use a computer software package, which can generate random numbers that are between whatever values we specify. For example, Table 1.1(b) gives the MINITAB output of 100 different, four-digit random numbers that are between 0001 and 2136 (note that the leading 0s are not included in these four digit numbers). If used, the random numbers in Table 1.1(b) identify the 100 employees that should form the random sample. After the random sample of 100 employees is selected, the number of cellular minutes used by each employee during the month (the employees cellular usage) is found and recorded. The 100 cellular-usage gures are given in Table 1.2. Looking at this table, we can see that there is substantial overage and underagemany employees used far more than 500 minutes, while many others failed to use all of the 500 minutes allowed by their plan. In Chapter 2 we will use these 100 usage gures to estimate the cellular cost per minute for the 500-minute plan.

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1.2 T A B L E 1.2

75 654 496 0 879 511 542 571 719 482 485 578 553 822 433 704 562 338 120 683

Sampling a Population of Existing Units A Sample of Cellular Usages (in minutes) for 100 Randomly Selected Employees Cell Use

37 504 0 705 420 535 49 503 468 212 547 670 198 814 521 585 505 529 730 418 753 490 507 20 648 341 461 737 853 399 93 225 157 513 41 530 496 444 18 376 897 509 672 546 528 216 241 372 479 323 694 247 296 801 359 512 624 555 144 173 797 597 774 721 367 491 885 290 24 669 477 173 479 273 948 0 259 830 513 611

Approximately random samples In general, to take a random sample we must have a list, or frame, of all the population units. This is needed because we must be able to number the population units in order to make random selections from them (by, for example, using a random number table). In Example 1.1, where we wished to study a population of 2,136 cell phone users who were on the banks 500-minute cellular plan, we were able to produce a frame (list) of the population units. Therefore, we were able to select a random sample. Sometimes, however, it is not possible to list and thus number all the units in a population. In such a situation we often select a systematic sample, which approximates a random sample.

Example 1.2 The Marketing Research Case: Rating a New Bottle Design4

The design of a package or bottle can have an important effect on a companys bottom line. For example, an article in the September 16, 2004, issue of USA Today reported that the introduction of a contoured 1.5-liter bottle for Coke drinks (including the reduced-calorie soft drink Coke C2) played a major role in Coca-Colas failure to meet third-quarter earnings forecasts in 2004. According to the article, Cokes biggest bottler, Coca-Cola Enterprises, said it would miss expectations because of the 1.5-liter bottle and the absence of common 2-liter and 12-pack sizes for C2 in supermarkets.5 In this case a brand group is studying whether changes should be made in the bottle design for a popular soft drink. To research consumer reaction to a new design, the brand group will use the mall intercept method6 in which shoppers at a large metropolitan shopping mall are intercepted and asked to participate in a consumer survey. Each shopper will be exposed to the new bottle design and asked to rate the bottle image. Bottle image will be measured by combining consumers responses to ve items, with each response measured using a 7-point Likert scale. The ve items and the scale of possible responses are shown in Figure 1.1. Here, since we describe the least favorable response and the most favorable response (and we do not describe the responses between them), we say that the scale is anchored at its ends. Responses to the ve items will be summed to obtain a composite score for each respondent. It follows that the minimum composite score possible is 5 and the maximum composite score possible is 35. Furthermore, experience has shown that the smallest acceptable composite score for a successful bottle design is 25. In this situation, it is not possible to list and number each and every shopper at the mall while the study is being conducted. Consequently, we cannot use random numbers (as we did in the cell phone case) to obtain a random sample of shoppers. Instead, we can select a systematic sample. To do this, every 100th shopper passing a specied location in the mall will be invited to participate in the survey. Here, selecting every 100th shopper is arbitrarywe could select

4

This case was motivated by an example in the book Essentials of Marketing Research by W. R. Dillon, T. J. Madden, and N. H. Firtle (Burr Ridge, IL: Richard D. Irwin, 1993). The authors also wish to thank Professor L. Unger of the Department of Marketing at Miami University for helpful discussions concerning how this type of marketing study would be carried out. Source: Coke says earnings will come up short, by Theresa Howard, USA Today, September 16, 2004, p. 801. This is a commonly used research design. For example, see the Burke Marketing Research website at http://burke.com/about/ inc_background.htm, Burke Marketing Research, March 26, 2005.

5 6

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F I G U R E 1.1 Chapter 1 The Bottle Design Survey Instrument

Please circle the response that most accurately describes whether you agree or disagree with each statement about the bottle you have examined.

Statement

The size of this bottle is convenient. The contoured shape of this bottle easy to handle. The label on this bottle is easy to read. This bottle is easy to open. Based on its overall appeal, I like this bottle design.

Strongly Disagree

1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6

Strongly Agree

7 7 7 7 7

T A B L E 1.3

A Sample of Bottle Design Ratings (Composite Scores for a Systematic Sample of 60 Shoppers) Design

34 32 24 32 31 32 33 25 30 28 28 30 33 27 20 30 33 34 29 33 34 31 31 32 26 22 31 31 32 30 33 27 32 33 28 30 28 32 30 29 26 32 25 33 35 27 29 31 32 32 33 34 32 29 33 29 31 31 34 33

every 200th, every 300th, and so forth. By selecting every 100th shopper, it is probably reasonable to believe that the responses of the survey participants are not related. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that the sampled shoppers obtained by the systematic sampling process make up an approximate random sample. During a Tuesday afternoon and evening, a sample of 60 shoppers is selected by using the systematic sampling process. Each shopper is asked to rate the bottle design by responding to the ve items in Figure 1.1, and a composite score is calculated for each shopper. The 60 composite scores obtained are given in Table 1.3. Since these scores range from 20 to 35, we might infer that most of the shoppers at the mall on the Tuesday afternoon and evening of the study would rate the new bottle design between 20 and 35. Furthermore, since 57 of the 60 composite scores are at least 25, we might estimate that the proportion of all shoppers at the mall on the Tuesday afternoon and evening who would give the bottle design a composite score of at least 25 is 57 60 .95. That is, we estimate that 95 percent of the shoppers would give the bottle design a composite score of at least 25. In Chapter 2 we will see how to estimate a typical composite score and we will further analyze the composite scores in Table 1.3. In some situations, we need to decide whether a sample taken from one population can be employed to make statistical inferences about another, related population. Often logical reasoning is used to do this. For instance, we might reason that the bottle design ratings given by shoppers at the mall on the Tuesday afternoon and evening of the research study would be representative of the ratings given by (1) shoppers at the same mall at other times, (2) shoppers at other malls, and (3) consumers in general. However, if we have no data or other information to back up this reasoning, making such generalizations is dangerous. In practice, marketing research rms choose locations and sampling times that data and experience indicate will produce a representative cross-section of consumers. To simplify our presentation, we will assume that this has been done in the bottle design case. Therefore, we will suppose that it is reasonable to use the 60 bottle design ratings in Table 1.3 to make statistical inferences about all consumers. To conclude this section, we emphasize the importance of taking a random (or approximately random) sample. Statistical theory tells us that, when we select a random (or approximately random) sample, we can use the sample to make valid statistical inferences about the sampled population. However, if the sample is not random, we cannot do this. A classic example occurred prior to the presidential election of 1936, when the Literary Digest predicted that Alf Landon would defeat Franklin D. Roosevelt by a margin of 57 percent to 43 percent. Instead, Roosevelt won the election in a landslide. Literary Digests error was to sample names from telephone books and club

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1.2 Sampling a Population of Existing Units

membership rosters. In 1936 the country had not yet recovered from the Great Depression, and many unemployed and low-income people did not have phones or belong to clubs. The Literary Digests sampling procedure excluded these people, who overwhelmingly voted for Roosevelt. At this time, George Gallup, founder of the Gallup Poll, was beginning to establish his survey business. He used an approximately random sample to correctly predict Roosevelts victory. As another example, todays television and radio stations, as well as newspaper columnists, use voluntary response samples. In such samples, participants self-selectthat is, whoever wishes to participate does so (usually expressing some opinion). These samples overrepresent people with strong (usually negative) opinions. For example, the advice columnist Ann Landers once asked her readers, If you had it to do over again, would you have children? Of the nearly 10,000 parents who voluntarily responded, 70 percent said that they would not. An approximately random sample taken a few months later found that 91 percent of parents would have children again. We further discuss random sampling in optional Section 1.5.

CONCEPTS 1.1 Dene a population. Give an example of a population that you might study when you start your career after graduating from college. 1.2 Dene what we mean by a variable, and explain the difference between a quantitative variable and a qualitative (categorical) variable. 1.3 Below we list several variables. Which of these variables are quantitative and which are qualitative? Explain. a The dollar amount on an accounts receivable invoice. b The net prot for a company in 2005. c The stock exchange on which a companys stock is traded. d The national debt of the United States in 2005. e The advertising medium (radio, television, or print) used to promote a product. 1.4 Explain the difference between a census and a sample. 1.5 Explain each of the following terms: a Descriptive statistics. c Random sample. b Statistical inference. d Systematic sample. 1.6 Explain why sampling without replacement is preferred to sampling with replacement. METHODS AND APPLICATIONS 1.7 The Forbes 2000 is a ranking of the worlds biggest companies (measured on a composite of sales, prots, assets and market values) by the editors of Forbes magazine. Below we give the best performing U.S. companies in the food, drink and tobacco industry from the Forbes 2000 as listed on the Forbes magazine website on February 2, 2005. BestPerf

Company

Altria Group (1) Coca-Cola (2) PepsiCo (3) Anheuser-Busch (4) Sara Lee (5) Coca-Cola Enterprises (6) General Mills (7) ConAgra Foods (8) Archer Daniels (9) Kellogg (10) HJ Heinz (11)

Sales (Billions $)

60.7 21.0 27.0 14.1 18.7 17.3 10.8 19.8 31.7 8.8 8.3

Prots (Billions $)

9.20 4.35 3.49 2.08 1.11 0.68 1.00 0.84 0.49 0.79 0.66

Company

Pepsi Bottling Group (12) Tyson Foods (13) Campbell Soup (14) Dean Foods (15) Hershey Foods (16) Wm Wrigley Jr (17) Constellation Brands (18) RJ Reynolds Tobacco (19) UST (20) Hormel Foods (21) Brown-Forman (22)

Sales (Billions $)

10.3 25.2 6.9 9.2 4.2 3.1 3.3 5.3 1.7 4.2 2.5

Prots (Billions $)

0.42 0.36 0.65 0.36 0.46 0.45 0.21 3.57 0.49 0.19 0.25

Consider the random numbers given in Table 1.1 (page 6). Starting in the upper left corner of Table 1.1 and moving down the two leftmost columns, we see that the rst three two-digit numbers obtained are 33 03 92

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T A B L E 1.4

Company

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Alcoa Anheuser-Busch BASF Berkshire Hathaway BHP Billiton BP Cardinal Health Cisco Systems Citigroup Continental Airlines Walt Disney FedEx General Electric Home Depot Illinois Tool Works

Chapter 1

The Most Admired Company in Each of 30 Industries as Listed on the Fortune magazine website on March 14, 2005

Industry

Metals Beverages Chemicals Insurance: P & C Mining, Crude-Oil Production Petroleum Rening Wholesalers: Health Care Network Communications Megabanks Airlines Entertainment Delivery Electronics Specialty Retailers Industrial & Farm Equipment 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Company

Intl. Business Machines International Paper Johnson & Johnson Lear Northwestern Mutual PepsiCo Procter & Gamble RWE Texas Instruments Toyota Motor United Technologies Verizon Communications Vinci Wal-Mart Stores Walgreen

Industry

Computers Forest & Paper Products Pharmaceuticals Motor Vehicle Parts Insurance: Life, Health Consumer Food Products Household and Personal Products Energy Semiconductors Motor Vehicles Aerospace and Defense Telecommunications Engineering, Construction General Merchandisers Food & Drug Stores

F I G U R E 1.2

Statement

The game console of the XYZ-Box is well designed. The game controller of the XYZ-Box is easy to handle. The XYZ-Box has high quality graphics capabilities. The XYZ-Box has high quality audio capabilities. The XYZ-Box serves as a complete entertainment center. There is a large selection of XYZ-Box games to choose from. I am totally satised with my XYZ-Box game system.

Strongly Disagree

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

Strongly Agree

7 7 7 7 7 7 7

Starting with these three random numbers, and moving down the two leftmost columns of Table 1.1 to nd more two-digit random numbers, use Table 1.1 to randomly select ve of these companies to be interviewed in detail about their business strategies. Hint: Note that we have numbered the companies in the Forbes list from 1 to 22. 1.8 Table 1.4 gives the most admired company in each of 30 industries as shown in the 2005 list of Global Most Admired Companies on the Fortune magazine website on March 14, 2005. Starting in the upper right corner of the random number table of Table 1.1 (page 6) and moving down the two rightmost columns, we see that the rst three two-digit numbers obtained are 88 22 52

Starting with these three random numbers, and moving down the two rightmost columns of Table 1.1 to nd more two-digit random numbers, use Table 1.1 to randomly select four of these industries for further study. MostProf 1.9 THE VIDEO GAME SATISFACTION RATING CASE VideoGame A company that produces and markets video game systems wishes to assess its customers level of satisfaction with a relatively new model, the XYZ-Box. In the six months since the introduction of the model, the company has received 73,219 warranty registrations from purchasers. The company will randomly select 65 of these registrations and will conduct telephone interviews with the purchasers. Specically, each purchaser will be asked to state his or her level of agreement with each of the seven statements listed on the survey instrument given in Figure 1.2. Here, the level of agreement for each statement is measured on a 7-point Likert scale. Purchaser satisfaction will be measured by adding the purchasers responses to the seven statements. It follows that for each consumer the minimum composite score possible is 7 and the maximum is 49. Furthermore, experience has shown that a purchaser of a video game system is very satised if his or her composite score is at least 42.

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1.2 T A B L E 1.5

39 45 38 42 42 41 38 42 46 44 40 39 40 42 45

Sampling a Population of Existing Units Composite Scores for the Video Game Satisfaction Rating Case VideoGame

44 42 46 40 47 44 43 45 45 40 46 41 43 39 43 46 45 45 46 43 47 43 41 40 43 44 41 38 43 36 44 44 45 44 46 48 44 41 45 44 44 44 46 39 41 44 42 47 43 45

11

T A B L E 1.6

1.6 6.6 5.6 5.1 3.9 4.6 6.5 6.4 8.6 4.2 5.8 3.4 9.3 7.4 1.8 6.2 5.4 4.9 5.4 .8 2.5 8.3 6.1 6.3 6.8 9.8 2.9 10.9 4.7 3.9

Waiting Times (in Minutes) for the Bank Customer Waiting Time Case WaitTime

3.2 6.5 2.3 8.7 4.7 3.6 2.7 3.7 .4 10.2 2.8 11.6 4.3 3.1 5.8 5.6 4.4 4.5 6.7 8.1 4.3 2.2 5.8 8.6 2.0 8.0 9.5 1.3 4.8 9.9 7.9 1.1 7.2 2.9 9.1 7.7 4.0 1.4 7.8 5.2 8.4 6.3 4.4 5.2 7.4 6.1 3.8 10.7 7.5 7.0 5.3 4.5 4.5 1.8 3.7 4.0 5.7 2.4 9.2 5.0 7.2 7.3 4.1 6.7 3.5 6.3 4.3 3.8 5.1 5.5

a Assume that the warranty registrations are numbered from 1 to 73,219 in a computer. Starting in the upper left corner of Table 1.1 and moving down the ve leftmost columns, we see that the rst three ve-digit numbers obtained are 33276 03427 92737

Starting with these three random numbers and moving down the ve leftmost columns of Table 1.1 to nd more ve-digit random numbers, use Table 1.1 to randomly select the numbers of the rst 10 warranty registrations to be included in the sample of 65 registrations. b Suppose that when the 65 customers are interviewed, their composite scores are obtained and are as given in Table 1.5. Using the data, estimate limits between which most of the 73,219 composite scores would fall. Also, estimate the proportion of the 73,219 composite scores that would be at least 42. 1.10 THE BANK CUSTOMER WAITING TIME CASE WaitTime A bank manager has developed a new system to reduce the time customers spend waiting to be served by tellers during peak business hours. Typical waiting times during peak business hours under the current system are roughly 9 to 10 minutes. The bank manager hopes that the new system will lower typical waiting times to less than six minutes. A 30-day trial of the new system is conducted. During the trial run, every 150th customer who arrives during peak business hours is selected until a systematic sample of 100 customers is obtained. Each of the sampled customers is observed, and the time spent waiting for teller service is recorded. The 100 waiting times obtained are given in Table 1.6. Moreover, the bank manager feels that this systematic sample is as representative as a random sample of waiting times would be. Using the data, estimate limits between which the waiting times of most of the customers arriving during peak business hours would be. Also, estimate the proportion of waiting times of customers arriving during peak business hours that are less than six minutes. 1.11 In an article titled Turned Off in the June 24, 1995, issue of USA Weekend, Dan Olmsted and Gigi Anders report on the results of a survey conducted by the magazine. Readers were invited to write in and answer several questions about sex and vulgarity on television. Olmsted and Anders summarized the survey results as follows: Nearly all of the 65,000 readers responding to our write-in survey say TV is too vulgar, too violent, and too racy. TV execs call it reality. Some of the key survey results were as follows:

Survey Results

96% are very or somewhat concerned about SEX on TV. 97% are very or somewhat concerned about VULGAR LANGUAGE on TV.

Note: Because participants were not chosen at random, the results of the write-in survey may not be scientic.

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Chapter 1 An Introduction to Business Statistics a Note the disclaimer at the bottom of the survey results. In a write-in survey, anyone who wishes to participate may respond to the survey questions. Therefore, the sample is not random and we say that the survey is not scientic. What kind of people would be most likely to respond to a survey about TV sex and violence? Do the survey results agree with your answer? b If a random sample of the general population were taken, do you think that its results would be the same? Why or why not? Similarly, for instance, do you think that 97 percent of the general population is very or somewhat concerned about violence on TV? c Another result obtained in the write-in survey is as follows: Should V-chips be installed on TV sets so parents could easily block violent programming? YES 90% NO 10%

If you planned to start a business manufacturing and marketing such V-chips (at a reasonable price), would you expect 90 percent of the general population to desire a V-chip? Why or why not?

A population is not always dened to be a set of existing units. Often we are interested in studying the population of all of the units that will be or could potentially be produced by a process. A process is a sequence of operations that takes inputs (labor, materials, methods, machines, and so on) and turns them into outputs (products, services, and the like). Processes produce output over time. For example, this years Lincoln Town Car manufacturing process produces Lincoln Town Cars over time. Early in the model year, Ford Motor Company might wish to study the population of the city driving mileages of all Lincoln Town Cars that will be produced during the model year. Or, even more hypothetically, Ford might wish to study the population of the city driving mileages of all Lincoln Town Cars that could potentially be produced by this model years manufacturing process. The rst population is called a nite population because only a nite number of cars will be produced during the year. Any population of existing units is also nite. The second population is called an innite population because the manufacturing process that produces this years model could in theory always be used to build one more car. That is, theoretically there is no limit to the number of cars that could be produced by this years process. There are a multitude of other examples of nite or innite hypothetical populations. For instance, we might study the population of all waiting times that will or could potentially be experienced by patients of a hospital emergency room. Or we might study the population of all the amounts of grape jelly that will be or could potentially be dispensed into 16-ounce jars by an automated lling machine. To study a population of potential process observations, we sample the processusually at equally spaced time pointsover time. This is illustrated in the following case.

7

According to the website of the Association of Trial Lawyers of America, Stella Liebeck of Albuquerque, New Mexico, was severely burned by McDonalds coffee in February 1992. Liebeck, who received third-degree burns over 6 percent of her body, was awarded $160,000 in compensatory damages and $480,000 in punitive damages. A postverdict investigation revealed that the coffee temperature at the local Albuquerque McDonalds had dropped from about 185F before the trial to about 158 after the trial. This case concerns coffee temperatures at a fast-food restaurant. Because of the possibility of future litigation and to possibly improve the coffees taste, the restaurant wishes to study and monitor the temperature of the coffee it serves. To do this, the restaurant personnel measure the temperature of the coffee being dispensed (in degrees Fahrenheit) at half-hour intervals from 10 A.M. to 9:30 P.M. on a given day. Table 1.7 gives the 24 temperature measurements obtained in the time order that they were observed. Here, time equals 1 at 10 A.M. and 24 at 9:30 P.M.

7

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1.3 T A B L E 1.7

Time

(10:00 A.M.) 1 2 3 4 (12:00 noon) 5 6 7 8

Coffee Temperature

163F 169 156 152 165 158 157 162

13

Coffee

Time

(6:00 P.M.) 17 18 19 20 (8:00 P.M.) 21 22 23 24

Time

(2:00 P.M.) 9 10 11 12 (4:00 P.M.) 13 14 15 16

Coffee Temperature

159F 154 167 161 152 165 161 154

Coffee Temperature

158F 170 155 162 156 167 155 164

Examining Table 1.7, we see that the coffee temperatures range from 152 to 170. Based on this, is it reasonable to conclude that the temperature of most of the coffee that will or could potentially be served by the restaurant will be between 152 and 170? The answer is yes if the restaurants coffee-making process operates consistently over time. That is, this process must be in a state of statistical control. A process is in statistical control if it does not exhibit any unusual process variations. Often, this means that the process displays a constant amount of variation around a constant, or horizontal, level. To assess whether a process is in statistical control, we sample the process often enough to detect unusual variations or instabilities. The fast-food restaurant has sampled the coffee-making process every half hour. In other situations, we sample processes with other frequenciesfor example, every minute, every hour, or every day. In Chapter 14, where we discuss a systematic method for studying processes called statistical process control (SPC), we consider how to determine the sampling frequency for a process. Using the observed process measurements, we can then construct a runs plot (sometimes called a time series plot). A runs plot is a graph of individual process measurements versus time. Figure 1.3 shows the MINITAB and Excel outputs of a runs plot of the temperature data. (Some people call such a plot a line chart when the plot points are connected by line segments as in the Excel output.) Here we plot each coffee temperature on the vertical scale versus its corresponding time index on the horizontal scale. For instance, the rst temperature (163) is plotted versus time equals 1, the second temperature (169) is plotted versus time equals 2, and so forth. The runs plot suggests that the temperatures exhibit a relatively constant amount of variation around a relatively constant level. That is, the center of the temperatures can be pretty much represented by a horizontal line (constant level)see the line drawn through the plotted pointsand the spread of the points around the line is staying about the same (constant variation). Note that the plot points tend to form a horizontal band. Therefore, the temperatures are in statistical control. In general, assume that we have sampled a process at different (usually equally spaced) time points and made a runs plot of the resulting sample measurements. If the plot indicates that the process is in statistical control, and if it is reasonable to believe that the process will remain in control, then it is probably reasonable to regard the sample measurements as an approximately random sample from the population of all possible process measurements. Furthermore, since the process is remaining in statistical control, the process performance is predictable. This allows us to make statistical inferences about the population of all possible process measurements that will or potentially could result from using the process. For example, assuming that the coffee-making process will remain in statistical control, it is reasonable to conclude that the temperature of most of the coffee that will be or could potentially be served will be between 152 and 170. To emphasize the importance of statistical control, suppose that another fast-food restaurant observes the 24 coffee temperatures that are plotted versus time in Figure 1.4. These temperatures also range between 152 and 170. However, we cannot infer from this that the temperature of most of the coffee that will be or could potentially be served by this other restaurant will be

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F I G U R E 1.3 Chapter 1 An Introduction to Business Statistics MINITAB and Excel Runs Plots of Coffee Temperatures: The Process Is in Statistical Control

190

Temperature

170 150

Constant level

130 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Time

(b) The Excel output

A 1 TEMP 163 2 169 3 4 156 152 5 165 158 7 157 8 9 162 159 11 154 167 12 161 13 152 14 165 15 B C D E F G H I

F I G U R E 1.4

F I G U R E 1.5

between 152 and 170. This is because the downward trend in the runs plot of Figure 1.4 indicates that the coffee-making process is out of control and will soon produce temperatures below 152. Another example of an out-of-control process is illustrated in Figure 1.5. Here, the coffee temperatures seem to uctuate around a constant level but with increasing variation (notice that the plotted temperatures fan out as time advances). In general, the specic pattern of out-of-control behavior can suggest the reason for this behavior. For example, the downward trend in the runs plot of Figure 1.4 might suggest that the restaurants coffeemaker has a defective heating element.

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15

Visually inspecting a runs plot to check for statistical control can be tricky. One reason is that the scale of measurements on the vertical axis can inuence whether the data appear to form a horizontal band. We will study better methods for detecting out-of-control behavior in Chapter 14. For now, we will simply emphasize that a process must be in statistical control in order to make valid statistical inferences about the population of all possible process observations. Also, note that being in statistical control does not necessarily imply that a process is capable of producing output that meets our requirements. For example, suppose that marketing research suggests that the fast-food restaurants customers feel that coffee tastes best if its temperature is between 153 and 167. Since Table 1.7 indicates that the temperature of some of the coffee it serves is not in this range (note that two of the temperatures are 152, one is 169, and another is 170), the restaurant might take action to reduce the variation of the coffee temperatures. The marketing research, and coffee temperature cases are both examples of using the statistical process to make a statistical inference. In the next case, we formally describe and illustrate this process.

In 2005 the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) emphasized the importance of auto fuel economy. The Fuel Economy Guide, available at the DOE website, discusses the effects of gasoline consumption on U.S. energy security and the economy as follows.8

Buying a more fuel efcient vehicle can help strengthen our national energy security by reducing our dependence on foreign oil. Half of the oil used to produce the gasoline you put in your tank is imported. The United States uses about 20 million barrels of oil per day, two thirds of which is used for transportation. Petroleum imports cost us about $2 billion a weekthats money that could be used to fuel our own economy.

The Guide also discusses the effects of gasoline consumption on global warming:9

Burning fossil fuels such as gasoline or diesel adds greenhouse gasses, including carbon dioxide, to the earths atmosphere. Greenhouse gasses trap heat and thus warm the earth because they prevent a signicant proportion of infrared radiation from escaping into space. Vehicles with lower fuel economy burn more fuel, creating more carbon dioxide. Every gallon of gasoline your vehicle burns puts 20 pounds of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. You can reduce your contribution to global warming by choosing a vehicle with higher fuel economy. By choosing a vehicle that achieves 25 miles per gallon rather than 20 miles per gallon, you can prevent the release of about 15 tons of greenhouse gas pollution over the lifetime of your vehicle.

In this case study we consider a tax credit offered by the federal government to automakers for improving the fuel economy of midsize cars. According to The Fuel Economy Guide2005 Model Year, virtually every midsize car equipped with an automatic transmission has an EPA combined city and highway mileage estimate of 26 miles per gallon (mpg) or less. Furthermore, the EPA has concluded that a 5 mpg increase in fuel economy is signicant and feasible.10 Therefore, the government has decided to offer the tax credit to any automaker selling a midsize model with an automatic transmission that achieves an EPA combined city and highway mileage estimate of at least 31 mpg. To nd the combined city and highway mileage estimate for a particular car model, the EPA tests a sample of cars. The steps used to obtain this estimate are those used in the statistical process for making a statistical inference:

1

Describe the practical problem of interest and the associated population or process to be studied. Consider an automaker that has recently introduced a midsize model with an automatic transmission and wishes to demonstrate that this new model qualies for the tax credit. The automaker will study the population of all cars of this type that will be or could potentially be produced.

8 9

World Wide Web, http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/FEG2005intro.pdf, U.S. Department of Energy, January 25, 2005. World Wide Web, http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/FEG2005intro.pdf, U.S. Department of Energy, January 25, 2005. The authors wish to thank Jeff Alson of the EPA for this information.

10

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T A B L E 1.8 Chapter 1 A Sample of 49 Mileages (Time Order Is Given by Reading Down the Columns from Left to Right) GasMiles

32.0 31.4 30.8 32.8 32.0 31.5 32.4 31.0 29.8 31.1 32.3 32.7 31.2 30.6 31.7 31.4 32.2 31.5 31.7 30.6 32.6 31.4 31.8 31.9 32.8 31.5 31.6 30.6 32.2

An Introduction to Business Statistics F I G U R E 1.6 MegaStat Output of a Runs Plot of the 49 Mileages

34 33

30.8 31.7 30.1 31.6 32.1 33.3 31.3 31.0 32.0 32.4

30.9 30.4 32.5 30.3 31.3 32.1 32.5 31.8 30.4 30.5

Mpg

32 31 30 29 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49

Time

Describe the variable of interest and how it will be measured. The variable of interest is the EPA combined city and highway mileage of a car. This mileage is obtained by testing the car on a device similar to a giant treadmill. The device is used to simulate a 7.5-mile city driving trip and a 10-mile highway driving trip, and the resulting mileages are used to calculate the EPA combined mileage for the car.11 Describe the sampling procedure. The automaker selects a sample of 49 of the new midsize cars by randomly selecting one car from those produced during each of 49 consecutive production shifts. Here the sample size (49) is determined by statistical considerations to be discussed in Chapter 7. Each sampled car is subjected to the EPA test. The resulting sample of 49 combined city and highway mileages is given in Table 1.8 (in time order). Describe the statistical inference of interest. The sample of 49 mileages will be used to estimate the typical EPA combined mileage for the population of all possible new midsize cars. The estimate obtained is the EPA combined city and highway mileage estimate for the new midsize model. Describe how the statistical inference will be made and evaluate the reliability of the inference. Figure 1.6 gives the MegaStat output of a runs plot of the 49 mileages. The runs plot indicates that the mileages are in statistical control. If it is reasonable to believe that car mileages for this model will remain in control, we can make statistical inferences. For instance, because the mileages in Table 1.8 range from 29.8 to 33.3 mpg, we might infer that most of the new midsize cars will get combined city and highway mileages between 29.8 and 33.3 mpg. To estimate the typical EPA combined mileage for the population of all possible cars, we might visually draw a horizontal line through the middle of the plot points in Figure 1.6. When we do this, the horizontal line intersects the vertical axis at about 31.5 mpg. Therefore, we might conclude that the EPA combined city and highway mileage estimate for the new midsize model should be 31.5 mpg. Since this estimate exceeds the EPA standard of 31 mpg, we might also conclude that the automaker qualies for the tax credit. However, the estimate is intuitive, so we do not have any information about its reliability. In Chapter 2 we will study more precise ways to both dene and estimate a typical population value. Then in Chapters 3 through 7 we will study tools for assessing the reliability of estimation procedures and for estimating with condence.

11

Since the EPA estimates that 55 percent of all driving is city driving, it calculates combined mileage by adding 55 percent of the city mileage test result to 45 percent of the highway mileage test result.

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1.3 Sampling a Process

17

CONCEPTS 1.12 Dene a process. Then give an example of a process you might study when you start your career after graduating from college. 1.13 Explain what it means to say that a process is in statistical control. 1.14 What is a runs plot? What does a runs plot look like when we sample and plot a process that is in statistical control? METHODS AND APPLICATIONS 1.15 The data below give 18 measurements of a critical dimension for an automobile part (measurements in inches). Here one part has been randomly selected each hour from the previous hours production, and the measurements are given in time order. AutoPart1

Hour

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Measurement

3.005 3.020 2.980 3.015 2.995 3.010 3.000 2.985 3.025

Hour

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Measurement

3.005 3.015 2.995 3.020 3.000 2.990 2.985 3.020 2.985

Construct a runs plot and determine if the process appears to be in statistical control. 1.16 Table 1.9 presents the time (in days) needed to settle the 67 homeowners insurance claims handled by an Indiana insurance agent over a year. The claims are given in time order by loss date. ClaimSet a Figure 1.7 shows a MINITAB runs plot of the claims data in Table 1.9. Does the claimshandling process seem to be in statistical control? Why or why not?

T A B L E 1.9

Number of Days Required to Settle Homeowners Insurance Claims (Claims Made from July 2, 2004 to June 25, 2005) ClaimSet

Days to Settle

111 35 23 42 54 50 41 12 8 11 11 31 35 14 14 27 14 23 47 17 21 18 31

Claim

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Loss Date

7-2-04 7-6-04 7-11-04 7-12-04 7-16-04 7-27-04 8-1-04 8-13-04 8-20-04 8-20-04 8-28-04 9-3-04 9-10-04 9-17-04 9-18-04 9-29-04 10-4-04 10-6-04 10-15-04 10-23-04 10-25-04 10-30-04 11-2-04

Claim

24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46

Loss Date

11-5-04 11-13-04 11-21-04 11-23-04 11-25-04 12-1-04 12-8-04 12-10-04 12-20-04 12-23-04 12-31-04 12-31-04 12-31-04 1-5-05 1-8-05 1-16-05 1-18-05 1-22-05 1-25-05 1-27-05 2-5-05 2-9-05 2-23-05

Days to Settle

34 25 22 14 20 32 27 23 35 29 25 18 16 23 26 30 36 42 45 43 39 53 64

Claim

47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67

Loss Date

3-5-05 3-5-05 3-6-05 3-6-05 3-6-05 3-6-05 3-7-05 3-7-05 3-19-05 3-27-05 4-1-05 4-11-05 4-15-05 4-19-05 5-2-05 5-15-05 5-25-05 6-6-05 6-12-05 6-24-05 6-25-05

Days to Settle

70 67 81 92 96 85 83 102 23 11 8 11 35 29 80 18 58 4 5 15 19

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F I G U R E 1.7 Chapter 1 MINITAB Runs Plot of the Insurance Claims Data for Exercise 1.16 F I G U R E 1.8 An Introduction to Business Statistics Runs Plot of Daily Percentages of Customers Waiting More Than One Minute to Be Seated (for Exercise 1.17)

100 75 50 25 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Days to Settle

9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% MT T F S SMT T S M TWT F S S

Claim

b In March of 2005, Indiana was hit by a widespread ice storm that caused heavy damage to homes in the area. Did this ice storm have a signicant impact on the time needed to settle homeowners claims? Should the agent consider improving procedures for handling claims in emergency situations? Why or why not? 1.17 In the article Accelerating Improvement published in Quality Progress (October 1991), Gaudard, Coates, and Freeman describe a restaurant that caters to business travelers and has a self-service breakfast buffet. Interested in customer satisfaction, the manager conducts a survey over a three-week period and nds that the main customer complaint is having to wait too long to be seated. On each day from September 11, 1989, to October 1, 1989, a problem-solving team records the percentage of patrons who must wait more than one minute to be seated. A runs plot of the daily percentages is shown in Figure 1.8.12 What does the runs plot suggest? 1.18 THE TRASH BAG CASE13 TrashBag A company that produces and markets trash bags has developed an improved 30-gallon bag. The new bag is produced using a specially formulated plastic that is both stronger and more biodegradable than previously used plastics, and the company wishes to evaluate the strength of this bag. The breaking strength of a trash bag is considered to be the amount (in pounds) of a representative trash mix that when loaded into a bag suspended in the air will cause the bag to sustain signicant damage (such as ripping or tearing). The company has decided to carry out a 40-hour pilot production run of the new bags. Each hour, at a randomly selected time during the hour, a bag is taken off the production line. The bag is then subjected to a breaking strength test. The 40 breaking strengths obtained during the pilot production run are given in Table 1.10, and an Excel runs plot of these breaking strengths is given in Figure 1.9. a Do the 40 breaking strengths appear to be in statistical control? Explain. b Estimate limits between which most of the breaking strengths of all trash bags would fall. 1.19 THE BANK CUSTOMER WAITING TIME CASE WaitTime Recall that every 150th customer arriving during peak business hours was sampled until a systematic sample of 100 customers was obtained. This systematic sampling procedure is equivalent to sampling from a process. Figure 1.10 shows a MegaStat runs plot of the 100 waiting times in Table 1.6. Does the process appear to be in statistical control? Explain.

12

The source of Figure 1.9 is M. Gaudard, R. Coates, and L. Freeman, Accelerating Improvement, Quality Progress, October 1991, pp. 8188. 1991 American Society for Quality Control. Used with permission. This case is based on conversations by the authors with several employees working for a leading producer of trash bags. For purposes of condentiality, we have withheld the companys name.

13

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1.4 T A B L E 1.10 Ratio, Interval, Ordinal, and Nominative Scales of Measurement (Optional) Trash Bag Breaking Strengths TrashBag

50.7 48.2 51.5 49.0 51.7 53.2 51.1 52.6 51.2 49.5 49.4 51.9 52.0 48.8 46.8 51.3 49.3 54.0 49.2 51.4

19

F I G U R E 1.9

A 1 Strength 48.5 2 52.3 3 53.5 4 50.5 5 50.3 6 49.6 7 8 51.0 48.3 9 10 50.6 11 50.2 12 52.5 47.5 13 14 50.9 15 49.8 50.0 16 50.8 17 53.0 18 50.9 19 49.9 20 50.1 21

B C D E F G H I J

48.5 52.3 53.5 50.5 50.3 49.6 51.0 48.3 50.6 50.2

52.5 47.5 50.9 49.8 50.0 50.8 53.0 50.9 49.9 50.1

F I G U R E 1.10

12 10

Waiting Time

8 6 4 2 0 1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91

Customer

In Section 1.1 we said that a variable is quantitative if its possible values are numbers that represent quantities (that is, how much or how many). In general, a quantitative variable is measured on a scale having a xed unit of measurement between its possible values. For example, if we measure employees salaries to the nearest dollar, then one dollar is the xed unit of measurement between different employees salaries. There are two types of quantitative variables: ratio and interval. A ratio variable is a quantitative variable measured on a scale such that ratios of its values are meaningful and there is an inherently dened zero value. Variables such as salary, height, weight, time, and distance are ratio variables. For example, a distance of zero miles is no distance at all, and a town that is 30 miles away is twice as far as a town that is 15 miles away. An interval variable is a quantitative variable where ratios of its values are not meaningful and there is not an inherently dened zero value. Temperature (on the Fahrenheit scale) is an interval variable. For example, zero degrees Fahrenheit does not represent no heat at all, just that it is very cold. Thus, there is no inherently dened zero value. Furthermore, ratios of temperatures are not meaningful. For example, it makes no sense to say that 60 is twice as warm as

Strength

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Chapter 1 An Introduction to Business Statistics

30. In practice, there are very few interval variables other than temperature. Almost all quantitative variables are ratio variables. In Section 1.1 we also said that if we simply record into which of several categories a population (or sample) unit falls, then the variable is qualitative (or categorical). There are two types of qualitative variables: ordinal and nominative. An ordinal variable is a qualitative variable for which there is a meaningful ordering, or ranking, of the categories. The measurements of an ordinal variable may be nonnumerical or numerical. For example, a student may be asked to rate the teaching effectiveness of a college professor as excellent, good, average, poor, or unsatisfactory. Here, one category is higher than the next one; that is, excellent is a higher rating than good, good is a higher rating than average, and so on. Therefore, teaching effectiveness is an ordinal variable having nonnumerical measurements. On the other hand, if (as is often done) we substitute the numbers 4, 3, 2, 1, and 0 for the ratings excellent through unsatisfactory, then teaching effectiveness is an ordinal variable having numerical measurements. In practice, both numbers and associated words are often presented to respondents asked to rate a person or item. When numbers are used, statisticians debate whether the ordinal variable is somewhat quantitative. For example, statisticians who claim that teaching effectiveness rated as 4, 3, 2, 1, or 0 is not somewhat quantitative argue that the difference between 4 (excellent) and 3 (good) may not be the same as the difference between 3 (good) and 2 (average). Other statisticians argue that as soon as respondents (students) see equally spaced numbers (even though the numbers are described by words), their responses are affected enough to make the variable (teaching effectiveness) somewhat quantitative. Generally speaking, the specic words associated with the numbers probably substantially affect whether an ordinal variable may be considered somewhat quantitative. It is important to note, however, that in practice numerical ordinal ratings are often analyzed as though they are quantitative. Specically, various arithmetic operations (as discussed in Chapters 2 through 14) are often performed on numerical ordinal ratings. For example, a professors teaching effectiveness average and a students grade point average are calculated. In Chapter 15 we will learn how to use nonparametric statistics to analyze an ordinal variable without considering the variable to be somewhat quantitative and performing such arithmetic operations. To conclude this section, we consider the second type of qualitative variable. A nominative variable is a qualitative variable for which there is no meaningful ordering, or ranking, of the categories. A persons gender, the color of a car, and an employees state of residence are nominative variables.

CONCEPTS 1.20 Discuss the difference between a ratio variable and an interval variable. 1.21 Discuss the difference between an ordinal variable and a nominative variable. METHODS AND APPLICATIONS 1.22 Classify each of the following qualitative variables as ordinal or nominative. Explain your answers.

Qualitative Variable

Statistics course letter grade Door choice on Lets Make A Deal Television show classications Personal computer ownership Restaurant rating Income tax ling status

Categories

A B C D F Door #1 Door #2 TV-G TV-PG TV-14 TV-MA Yes No ***** **** *** ** * Married ling jointly Married ling separately Single Head of household Qualifying widow(er)

1.23 Classify each of the following qualitative variables as ordinal or nominative. Explain your answers.

Qualitative Variable

Personal computer operating system Motion picture classications Level of education Rankings of top 10 college football teams Exchange on which a stock is traded Zip code

Categories

DOS Windows 98 Windows 2000 Windows NT Other G PG PG-13 R NC-17 X Elementary Middle school High school College Graduate school 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 AMEX NYSE NASDAQ 45056 90015 etc. Other

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1.5 An Introduction to Survey Sampling (Optional)

21

Random sampling is not the only kind of sampling. Methods for obtaining a sample are called sampling designs, and the sample we take is sometimes called a sample survey. In this section we explain three sampling designs that are alternatives to random samplingstratied random sampling, cluster sampling, and systematic sampling. One common sampling design involves separately sampling important groups within a population. Then, the samples are combined to form the entire sample. This approach is the idea behind stratied random sampling. In order to select a stratied random sample, we divide the population into nonoverlapping groups of similar units (people, objects, etc.). These groups are called strata. Then a random sample is selected from each stratum, and these samples are combined to form the full sample. It is wise to stratify when the population consists of two or more groups that differ with respect to the variable of interest. For instance, consumers could be divided into strata based on gender, age, ethnic group, or income. As an example, suppose that a department store chain proposes to open a new store in a location that would serve customers who live in a geographical region that consists of (1) an industrial city, (2) a suburban community, and (3) a rural area. In order to assess the potential protability of the proposed store, the chain wishes to study the incomes of all households in the region. In addition, the chain wishes to estimate the proportion and the total number of households whose members would be likely to shop at the store. The department store chain feels that the industrial city, the suburban community, and the rural area differ with respect to income and the stores potential desirability. Therefore, it uses these subpopulations as strata and takes a stratied random sample. Taking a stratied sample can be advantageous because such a sample takes advantage of the fact that units in the same stratum are similar to each other. It follows that a stratied sample can provide more accurate information than a random sample of the same size. As a simple example, if all of the units in each stratum were exactly the same, then examining only one unit in each stratum would allow us to describe the entire population. Furthermore, stratication can make a sample easier (or possible) to select. Recall that, in order to take a random sample, we must have a frame, or list, of all of the population units. Although a frame might not exist for the overall population, a frame might exist for each stratum. For example, suppose nearly all the households in the department stores geographical region have telephones. Although there might not be a telephone directory for the overall geographical region, there might be separate telephone directories for the industrial city, the suburb, and the rural area. Although we do not discuss how to analyze data from a stratied random sample in the main body of this text, we do so in Appendix F (Part I) on the CD-ROM that accompanies this book. For a more complete discussion of stratied random sampling, see Mendenhall, Schaeffer, and OH (1986). Sometimes it is advantageous to select a sample in stages. This is a common practice when selecting a sample from a very large geographical region. In such a case, a frame often does not exist. For instance, there is no single list of all registered voters in the United States. There is also no single list of all households in the United States. In this kind of situation, we can use multistage cluster sampling. To illustrate this procedure, suppose we wish to take a sample of registered voters from all registered voters in the United States. We might proceed as follows: Stage 1: Randomly select a sample of counties from all of the counties in the United States. Stage 2: Randomly select a sample of townships from each county selected in Stage 1. Stage 3: Randomly select a sample of voting precincts from each township selected in Stage 2. Stage 4: Randomly select a sample of registered voters from each voting precinct selected in Stage 3. We use the term cluster sampling to describe this type of sampling because at each stage we cluster the voters into subpopulations. For instance, in Stage 1 we cluster the voters into counties, and in Stage 2 we cluster the voters in each selected county into townships. Also, notice that the random sampling at each stage can be carried out because there are lists of (1) all counties in the United States, (2) all townships in each county, (3) all voting precincts in each township, and (4) all registered voters in each voting precinct.

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As another example, consider sampling the households in the United States. We might use Stages 1 and 2 above to select counties and townships within the selected counties. Then, if there is a telephone directory of the households in each township, we can randomly sample households from each selected township by using its telephone directory. Because most households today have telephones, and telephone directories are readily available, most national polls are now conducted by telephone. It is sometimes a good idea to combine stratication with multistage cluster sampling. For example, suppose a national polling organization wants to estimate the proportion of all registered voters who favor a particular presidential candidate. Because the presidential preferences of voters might tend to vary by geographical region, the polling organization might divide the United States into regions (say, Eastern, Midwestern, Southern, and Western regions). The polling organization might then use these regions as strata, and might take a multistage cluster sample from each stratum (region). The analysis of data produced by multistage cluster sampling can be quite complicated. We explain how to analyze data produced by one- and two-stage cluster sampling in Appendix F (Part 2) on the CD-ROM that accompanies this book. This appendix also includes a discussion of an additional survey sampling technique called ratio estimation. For a more detailed discussion of cluster sampling and ratio estimation, see Mendenhall, Schaeffer, and Ott (1986). In order to select a random sample, we must number the units in a frame of all the population units. Then we use a random number table (or a random number generator on a computer) to make the selections. However, numbering all the population units can be quite time-consuming. Moreover, random sampling is used in the various stages of many complex sampling designs (requiring the numbering of numerous populations). Therefore, it is useful to have an alternative to random sampling. One such alternative is called systematic sampling. In order to systematically select a sample of n units without replacement from a frame of N units, we divide N by n and round the result down to the nearest whole number. Calling the rounded result , we then randomly select one unit from the rst units in the framethis is the rst unit in the systematic sample. The remaining units in the sample are obtained by selecting every th unit following the rst (randomly selected) unit. For example, suppose we wish to sample a population of N 14,327 allergists to investigate how often they have prescribed a particular drug during the last year. A medical society has a directory listing the 14,327 allergists, and we draw a systematic sample of 500 allergists from this frame. Here we compute 14,327 500 28.654, which is 28 when rounded down. Therefore, we number the rst 28 allergists in the directory from 1 to 28, and we use a random number table to randomly select one of the rst 28 allergists. Suppose we select allergist number 19. We interview allergist 19 and every 28th allergist in the frame thereafter, so we choose allergists 19, 47, 75, and so forth until we obtain our sample of 500 allergists. In this scheme, we must number the rst 28 allergists, but we do not have to number the rest because we can count off every 28th allergist in the directory. Alternatively, we can measure the approximate amount of space in the directory that it takes to list 28 allergists. This measurement can then be used to select every 28th allergist. In this book we concentrate on showing how to analyze data produced by random sampling. However, if the order of the population units in a frame is random with respect to the characteristic under study, then a systematic sample should be (approximately) a random sample and we can analyze the data produced by the systematic sample by using the same methods employed to analyze random samples. For instance, it would seem reasonable to assume that the alphabetically ordered allergists in a medical directory would be random (that is, have nothing to do with) the number of times the allergists prescribed a particular drug. Similarly, the alphabetically ordered people in a telephone directory would probably be random with respect to many of the peoples characteristics that we might wish to study. When we employ random sampling, we eliminate bias in the choice of the sample from a frame. However, a proper sampling design does not guarantee that the sample will produce accurate information. One potential problem is undercoverage. Undercoverage occurs when some population units are excluded from the process of selecting the sample. This problem occurs when we do not have a complete, accurate list of all the population units. For example, although telephone polls today are common, 7 to 8 percent of the people in the United States do not have telephones. In general, undercoverage usually causes low-income people to be

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Chapter Summary

23

underrepresented. If underrepresented groups differ from the rest of the population with respect to the characteristic under study, the survey results will be biased. Another potentially serious problem is nonresponse. Nonresponse occurs when a population unit selected as part of the sample cannot be contacted or refuses to participate. In some surveys, 35 percent or more of the selected individuals cannot be contactedeven when several callbacks are made. In such a case, other participants are often substituted for the people who cannot be contacted. If the substitute participants differ from the originally selected participants with respect to the characteristic under study, the survey will again be biased. Third, when people are asked potentially embarrassing questions, their responses might not be truthful. We then have what we call response bias. Fourth, the wording of the questions asked can inuence the answers received. Slanted questions often evoke biased responses. For example, consider the following question: Which of the following best describes your views on gun control?

1 2

The government should take away our guns, leaving us defenseless against heavily armed criminals. We have the right to keep and bear arms.

CONCEPTS 1.24 When is it appropriate to use stratied random sampling? What are strata, and how should strata be selected? 1.25 When is cluster sampling used? Why do we describe this type of sampling by using the term cluster? 1.26 Explain each of the following terms: a Undercoverage b Nonresponse c Response bias

1.27 Explain how to take a systematic sample of 100 companies from the 1,853 companies that are members of an industry trade association. 1.28 Explain how a stratied random sample is selected. Discuss how you might dene the strata to survey student opinion on a proposal to charge all students a $100 fee for a new university-run bus system that will provide transportation between off-campus apartments and campus locations. 1.29 Marketing researchers often use city blocks as clusters in cluster sampling. Using this fact, explain how a market researcher might use multistage cluster sampling to select a sample of consumers from all cities having a population of more than 10,000 in a large state having many such cities.

Chapter Summary

This chapter has introduced the idea of using sample data to make statistical inferencesthat is, drawing conclusions about populations and processes by using sample data. We began by learning that a population is a set of existing units that we wish to study. We saw that, since many populations are too large to examine in their entirety, we often study a population by selecting a sample, which is a subset of the population units. Next we learned that, if the information contained in a sample is to accurately represent the population, then the sample should be randomly selected from the population, and we saw how random numbers (obtained from a random number table) can be used to select a random sample. We also learned that selecting a random sample requires a frame (that is, a list of all of the population units) and that, since a frame does not always exist, we sometimes select a systematic sample. We continued this chapter by studying processes. We learned that to make statistical inferences about the population of all possible values of a variable that could be observed when using a process, the process must be in statistical control. We learned that a process is in statistical control if it does not exhibit any unusual process variations, and we demonstrated how we might sample a process and how to use a runs plot to try to judge whether a process is in control. Next, in optional Section 1.4 we studied different types of quantitative and qualitative variables. We learned that there are two types of quantitative variablesratio variables, which are measured on a scale such that ratios of its values are meaningful and there is an inherently dened zero value, and interval variables, for which ratios are not meaningful and there is no inherently dened zero value. We also saw that there are two types of qualitative variablesordinal variables, for which there is a meaningful ordering of the categories, and nominative variables, for which there is no meaningful ordering of the categories. We concluded this chapter with optional Section 1.5, which discusses survey sampling. We introduced stratied random sampling, in which we divide a population into groups (strata)

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Chapter 1 An Introduction to Business Statistics sample. Finally, we discussed some potential problems encountered when conducting a sample surveyundercoverage, nonresponse, response bias, and slanted questions. and then select a random sample from each group. We also introduced multistage cluster sampling, which involves selecting a sample in stages, and we explained how to select a systematic

Glossary of Terms

categorical (qualitative) variable: A variable having values that indicate into which of several categories a population unit belongs. (page 3) census: An examination of all the units in a population. (page 4) cluster sampling (multistage cluster sampling): A sampling design in which we sequentially cluster population uints into subpopulations. (page 21) descriptive statistics: The science of describing the important aspects of a set of measurements. (page 4) nite population: A population that contains a nite number of units. (page 12) frame: A list of all of the units in a population. This is needed in order to select a random sample. (page 5) innite population: A population that is dened so that there is no limit to the number of units that could potentially belong to the population. (page 12) interval variable: A quantitative variable such that ratios of its values are not meaningful and for which there is not an inherently dened zero value. (page 19) measurement: The process of assigning a value of a variable to each of the units in a population or sample. (page 3) nominative variable: A qualitative variable for which there is no meaningful ordering, or ranking, of the categories. (page 20) nonresponse: A situation in which population units selected to participate in a survey do not respond to the survey instrument. (page 23) ordinal variable: A qualitative variable for which there is a meaningful ordering or ranking of the categories. (page 20) population: A set of existing units (people, objects, events, or the like) that we wish to study. (page 3) process: A sequence of operations that takes inputs and turns them into outputs. (page 12) qualitative (categorical) variable: A variable having values that indicate into which of several categories a population unit belongs. (page 20) quantitative variable: A variable having values that are numbers representing quantities. (page 19) random number table: A table containing random digits that is often used to select a random sample. (page 4) random sample: A sample selected so that, on each selection from the population, every unit remaining in the population on that selection has the same chance of being chosen. (page 4) ratio variable: A quantitative variable such that ratios of its values are meaningful and for which there is an inherently dened zero value. (page 19) response bias: A situation in which survey participants do not respond truthfully to the survey questions. (page 23) runs plot: A graph of individual process measurements versus time. (page 13) sample: A subset of the units in a population. (page 4) sampling without replacement: A sampling procedure in which we do not place previously selected units back into the population and, therefore, do not give these units a chance to be chosen on succeeding selections. (page 5) sampling with replacement: A sampling procedure in which we place any unit that has been chosen back into the population to give the unit a chance to be chosen on succeeding selections. (page 4) statistical control: A state in which a process does not exhibit any unusual variations. Often this means that the process displays a uniform amount of variation around a constant, or horizontal, level. (page 13) statistical inference: The science of using a sample of measurements to make generalizations about the important aspects of a population. (page 4) statistical process control (SPC): A method for analyzing process data in which we monitor and study the process variation. The goal is to stabilize (and reduce) the amount of process variation. (page 13) strata: The subpopulations in a stratied sampling design. (page 21) stratied random sampling: A sampling design in which we divide a population into nonoverlapping subpopulations and then select a random sample from each subpopulation (stratum). (page 21) systematic sample: A sample taken by moving systematically through the population. For instance, we might randomly select one of the rst 200 population units and then systematically sample every 200th population unit thereafter. (page 7) undercoverage: A situation in sampling in which some groups of population units are underrepresented. (page 22) variable: A characteristic of a population unit. (page 3)

Supplementary Exercises

1.30 Some television stations attempt to gauge public opinion by posing a question on the air and asking viewers to call to give their opinions. Suppose that a particular television station asks viewers whether they support or oppose a proposed federal gun control law. Viewers are to call one of two 800 numbers to register support or opposition. When the results are tabulated, the station reports that 78 percent of those who called are opposed to the proposed law. What do you think of the sampling method used by the station? Do you think that the percentage of the entire population that opposes the proposed law is as high as the 78 percent of the sample that was opposed? 1.31 In early 1995, The Milwaukee Sentinel, a morning newspaper in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and The Milwaukee Journal, an afternoon newspaper, merged to form The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Several weeks after the merger, a Milwaukee television station, WITI-TV, conducted a telephone

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Supplementary Exercises call-in survey asking whether viewers liked the new Journal Sentinel. The survey was not scientic because any viewer wishing to call in could do so. On April 26, 1995, Tim Cuprisin, in his Inside TV & Radio column in the Journal Sentinel, wrote the following comment: WE DIDNT CALL: WITI-TV (Channel 6) did one of those pollswhich they admit are unscienticlast week and found that 388 viewers like the new Journal Sentinel and 2,629 dont like it. We did our own unscientic poll on whether those Channel 6 surveys accurately reect public opinion. The results: a full 100 percent of the respondents say absolutely, positively not. Is Cuprisins comment justied? Write a short paragraph explaining your answer. 1.32 Table 1.11 gives the 35 best companies to work for as rated on the Fortune magazine website on March 14, 2005. Use random numbers to select a random sample of 10 of these companies. Justify that your sample is random by carefully explaining how you obtained it. List the random numbers you used and show how they gave your random sample. 1.33 A bank wishes to study the amount of time it takes to complete a withdrawal transaction from one of its ATMs (automated teller machines). On a particular day, 63 withdrawal transactions are observed between 10 A.M. and noon. The time required to complete each transaction is given in Table 1.12. Figure 1.11 shows an Excel runs plot of the 63 transaction times. Do the transaction times seem to be in statistical control? Why or why not? ATMTime T A B L E 1.12

Transaction

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

25

T A B L E 1.11 Fortunes 35 Best Companies to Work for in March 2005 (for Exercise 1.32)

Rank

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Company

Wegmans Food Markets W.L. Gore Republic Bancorp Genentech Xilinx J.M. Smucker S.C. Johnson & Son Grifn Hospital Alston & Bird Vision Service Plan Starbucks Quicken Loans Adobe Systems CDW Container Store SAS Institute Qualcomm Robert W. Baird QuikTrip HomeBanc Mortgage David Weekley Homes TD Industries Valero Energy Network Appliance JM Family Enterprises American Century Investments Cisco Systems American Cast Iron Pipe Stew Leonards Whole Foods Market Baptist Health South Florida Arnold & Porter Amgen American Fidelity Assurance Goldman Sachs Group

Time

32 32 41 51 42 39 33 43 35 33 33 32 42 34 37 37 33 35 40 36 32

ATMTime

Transaction

43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63

Transaction

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42

Time

34 32 34 35 33 42 46 52 36 37 32 39 36 41 32 33 34 38 32 35 33

Time

37 32 33 33 40 35 33 39 34 34 33 38 41 34 35 35 37 39 44 40 39

27 28 29 30 31

F I G U R E 1.11

B C D E F G H I

A 1 ATM TIME 32 2 32 3 4 41 51 5 42 6 39 7 33 8 9 43 35 10 11 33 33 12 32 13 42 14

32 33 34

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 TRANSACTION NUMBER

ATM TIME

35

Source: World Wide Web, http://www.fortune.com/ fortune/bestcompanies/ subs/2005/fulllist/ 0,22864,,00.html, March 14, 2005.

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F I G U R E 1.12 Chapter 1 An Introduction to Business Statistics Runs Plot of the Cleveland Indians Winning Percentages from 1915 through 2004 (for Exercise 1.34)

0.75 0.65 WINPCT 0.55 0.45 0.35 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

1.34 Figure 1.12 gives a runs plot of the Cleveland Indians winning percentages from 1915 (when the team was renamed as the Indians) to 2004. Many longtime Indians fans believe that the April 1959 trade of Rocky Colavito, a feared home-run hitter, for Detroits Harvey Kuehn, a good average hitter without exceptional power, sent the team into a decline that lasted more than 30 years. Does the runs plot provide any evidence to support this opinion? Why or why not? 1.35 THE TRASH BAG CASE TrashBag Recall that the company will carry out a 40-hour pilot production run of the new bags and will randomly select one bag each hour to be subjected to a breaking strength test. a Explain how the company can use random numbers to randomly select the times during the 40 hours of the pilot production run at which bags will be tested. Hint: Suppose that a randomly selected time will be determined to the nearest minute. b Use the following random numbers (obtained from Table 1.1) to select the times during the rst ve hours at which the rst ve bags to be tested will be taken from the production line: 61, 15, 64, 07, 86, 87, 57, 64, 66, 42, 59, 51.

In this book we use three types of software to carry out statistical analysisMINITAB, Excel, and MegaStat. MINITAB is a computer package designed expressly for conducting statistical analysis. It is widely used at many colleges and universities, and in a large number of business organizations. Excel is, of course, a general purpose electronic spreadsheet program and analytical tool. The analysis ToolPak in Excel includes many procedures for performing various kinds of basic statistical analyses. MegaStat is an add-in package that is specically designed for performing statistical analysis in the Excel spreadsheet environment. The principal advantage of Excel is that, because of its broad acceptance among students and professionals as a multipurpose analytical tool, it is both well known and widely available. The advantage of a special-purpose statistical software package like MINITAB is that it provides a far wider range of statistical procedures and it offers the experienced analyst a range of options to better control the analysis. The advantages of MegaStat include (1) its ability to perform a number of statistical calculations that are not automatically done by the procedures in the Excel ToolPak, and (2) features that make it easier to use than Excel for a wide variety of statistical analyses. In addition, the output obtained by using MegaStat is automatically placed in a standard Excel spreadsheet and can be edited by using any of the features in Excel. MegaStat can be copied from the CD-ROM included with this book. MINITAB, Excel, and MegaStat, through built-in functions, programming languages, and macros, offer almost limitless power. Here, we will limit our attention to procedures that are easily accessible via menus without resort to any special programming or advanced features. Commonly used features of MINITAB, Excel, and MegaStat are presented in this chapter along with an initial applicationto produce a time series or runs plot. You will nd that the limited instructions included here, along with the built-in help features of all three software packages, will serve as a starting point from which you can discover a variety of other procedures and options. Much more detailed descriptions of MINITAB can be found in other sources, in particular in the manual Meet MINITAB: Release 14 for Windows. This manual is available in print and as a .pdf le,

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Appendix 1.1 viewable using Adobe Acrobat Reader, on the MINITAB Inc. website (http://www.minitab.com/products/minitab/ 14/documentation/aspx). Similarly, there are a number of alternative reference materials for Microsoft Excel. Of course, an understanding of the related statistical Getting Started With MINITAB

27

concepts is essential to the effective use of any statistical software package. The instructions in this book are based on MINITAB (Version 14) for Windows and Microsoft Excel 2003 as found in Microsoft Ofce 2003.

We begin with a look at some features of MINITAB that are common to most analyses. When the instructions call for a sequence of selections from a series of menus, the sequence will be presented in the following form: Stat : Basic Statistics : Descriptive Statistics This notation indicates that Stat is the rst selection from the Minitab menu bar, next Basic Statistics is Starting MINITAB Procedures for starting MINITAB may vary from one installation to the next. If you are using a public computing laboratory, you may have to consult local documentation. For typical MINITAB installations, you will generally be able to start MINITAB with a sequence of selections from the Microsoft Windows Start menu something like the following: selected from the Stat pull-down menu, and nally Descriptive Statistics is selected from the Basic Statistics pull-down menu.

You can also start MINITAB with a previously saved MINITAB worksheet (like Coffee.mtw or one of the many other data les from the CD-ROM included with this text) from the Windows Explorer by double-clicking on the worksheets icon.

After you start MINITAB, the display is partitioned into two working windows. These windows serve the following functions:

The Session window is the area where MINITAB commands and basic output are displayed. The Data window is a spreadsheet-style display where data can be entered and edited.

Help resources Like most Windows programs, MINITAB includes on-line help via a Help Menu. The Help feature includes standard Contents and Search entries as well as Tutorials that introduce MINITAB concepts and walk through some typical MINITAB sessions. Also included is a StatGuide that provides guidance for interpreting statistical tables and graphs in a practical, easy-to-understand way.

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Chapter 1 An Introduction to Business Statistics Entering data (entering the coffee temperature data in Table 1.7) from the keyboard:

In the Data window, click on the cell directly below C1 and type a name for the variable, Temp, and press the Enter key. Starting in line 1 under column C1, type the values for the variable (coffee temperatures from Table 1.7 on page 13) down the column, pressing the Enter key after each number is typed.

Select File : Save Current Worksheet As. In the Save Worksheet As dialog box, use the Save in pull-down menu to select the destination drive and folder. (Here we have selected the oppy drive, A:) Enter the desired le name in the File name box. (Here we have chosen the name Coffee. Minitab will automatically add the extension .mtw.) Click Save in the Save Worksheet As dialog box.

Retrieving a Minitab worksheet containing the coffee temperature data in Table 1.7 (data le: Coffee.mtw):

Select File : Open Worksheet In the Open Worksheet dialog box, use the Look in pull-down menu to select the source drive and folder. (Here we have selected the oppy drive, A:) Select the desired le name in the File name box. (Here we have chosen the Minitab worksheet Coffee.Mtw) Click Open in the Open Worksheet dialog box. Minitab may display a dialog box with the message, A copy of the content of this le will be added to the current project. If so, click OK.

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Creating a runs (or time series) plot similar to Figure 1.3(a) on page 14 (data le: Coffee.mtw):

Select Graph : Time Series Plot. In the Time Series Plots dialog box, select Simple, which produces a time series plot of data in a single column. Click OK in the Time Series Plots dialog box. In the Time Series PlotSimple dialog box, enter the name of the variable, Temp, into the Series box. Do this either by typing its name, by clicking on its name in the variables box on the left and then clicking on the Select button, or by double-clicking on its name in the variables box on the left. Click OK in the Time Series PlotSimple dialog box.

The runs (or time series) plot will appear in a graphics window.

The graph can be edited by right-clicking on the portion you wish to edit. For instance, here we have right-clicked on the data region. Selecting Edit Data Region from the pop up window yields a dialog box that allows you to edit this region. The x and y scales, x and y axis labels, title, plot symbols, connecting lines, data region, gure region, and so forth can all be edited by right-clicking on that particular portion of the graph.

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Chapter 1 For instance, here we have right-clicked on the data region and then selected Edit Data Region from the pop up menu. The Edit Data Region dialog box allows us to edit various attributes of this region. As shown, selecting Custom and clicking on the Background Color arrow allows us to change the background color of the data region. An Introduction to Business Statistics

Printing a high-resolution graph similar to Figure 1.3(a) on page 14 (data le: Coffee.mtw):

Click in the graphics window to select it as the active window. Select File : Print Graph to print the graph. Select the appropriate printer and click OK in the Print dialog box. When nished with the graph window, you can close it by clicking on the button in the upper right corner of the graphics window.

Select File : Save Graph As. In the Save Graph As dialog box, use the Save in pull-down menu to select the destination drive and folder (here we have selected the oppy drive, A:). Enter the desired le name in the File name box (here we have chosen the name Coffee). MINITAB will automatically add the extension .MGF. Click Save in the Save Graph As dialog box.

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Printing data from the Session (shown) or Data window (data le: Coffee.mtw): To print selected text from the Session window:

Use the mouse to select the desired text. Select File : Print Session Window. In the Print dialog box, note that the Print range Selection option is selected. To print the entire Session window, select Print range All. Click OK in Print dialog box.

Click in the Data window to select it as active. Select File : Print Worksheet. Click OK in the Data Window Print Options dialog box. Click OK in the Print dialog box.

Including MINITAB output in reports The immediately preceding examples show how to print various types of output directly from MINITAB. Printing is a useful way to capture a quick hard-copy record of an analysis result. However, you may prefer at times to collect selected analysis results and arrange them with related narrative documentation in a report that can be saved and printed as a unit. This is easily accomplished by copying

selected MINITAB results to the Windows clipboard and pasting them into your favorite word processor. Once copied to a word processor document, MINITAB results can be documented, edited, resized, and rearranged as desired into a cohesive record of your analysis. The following sequence of examples illustrates the process of collecting MINITAB output into a Microsoft Word document.

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Chapter 1 An Introduction to Business Statistics Copying session window output to a word processor document:

Be sure to have a word processing document open to receive the results. Use the scroll bar on the right side of the Session window to locate the results to be copied and drag the mouse to select the desired output (selected output will be reverse-highlighted in black). Copy the selected output to the Windows clipboard by clicking the Copy icon on the MINITAB toolbar. Switch to your word processor document by clicking the button on the Windows task bar (here labeled MS Word Report.doc...). Click in your word processing document to position the cursor at the desired insertion point. Click the Paste button on the word processor power bar. Return to your MINITAB session by clicking the MINITAB button on the Windows task bar.

Be sure to have a word processing document open to receive the results. Copy the selected contents of the highresolution graphics window to the Windows clipboard by right-clicking in the graphics window and then clicking Copy Graph on the pop up menu. Switch to your word processor document by clicking the button on the Windows task bar (here labeled MS Word Report.doc...). Click in your word processing document to position the cursor at the desired insertion point. Click the Paste button on the word processor power bar. Return to your MINITAB session by clicking the MINITAB button on the Windows task bar.

Results Here is how the copied results might appear in Microsoft Word. These results can be edited, resized, repositioned, and combined with your own additional documentation to create a cohesive record of your analysis.

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We complete this appendix by demonstrating how MINITAB can be used to generate a set of random numbers (as in Example 1.1 on page 5). To create 100 random numbers between 1 and 2136 similar to those in Table 1.1 (page 6):

Select Calc : Random Data : Integer In the Integer Distribution dialog box, enter 100 into the Generate rows of data window. Enter C1 into the Store in column(s) window. Enter 1 into the Minimum value box and enter 2136 into the Maximum value box. Click OK in the Integer Distribution dialog box.

The 100 random numbers will be placed in the Data Window in column C1. These numbers are generated with replacement. Repeated numbers would be skipped if the random numbers are being used to sample without replacement.

We begin with a look at some features of Excel that are common to many analyses. When the instructions call for a sequence of selections from a series of menus, the sequence will be presented in the following form: Tools : Data Analysis : Descriptive Statistics This notation indicates that Tools is the rst selection from the Excel menu bar, next Data Analysis is selected from the Tools pull-down menu, and nally Descriptive Statistics is selected from the Data Analysis menu window. For many of the statistical and graphical procedures in Excel, it is necessary to provide a range of cells to specify the location of data in the spreadsheet. Generally, the range may be specied either by typing the cell locations directly into a dialog box or by dragging the selected range with the mouse. Though, for the experienced user, it is usually easier to use the mouse to select a range, the instructions that follow will, for precision and clarity, specify ranges by typing in cell locations. The selected range may include column or variable labels labels at the tops of columns that serve to identify variables. When the selected range includes such labels, it is important to select the Labels check box in the analysis dialog box. Starting Excel Procedures for starting Excel may vary from one installation to the next. If you are using a public computing laboratory, you may wish to consult local documentation. For typical Excel installations, you will generally be able to start Excel with a sequence of selections from the Microsoft Windows Start menu something like the following:

You can also start Excel with a previously saved Excel spreadsheet (like Coffee.xls or one of the other data les from the CD-ROM included with this text) from the Windows Explorer by doubleclicking on the spreadsheet les icon.

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Chapter 1 An Introduction to Business Statistics After starting Excel, the display will generally show a blank Excel workbook. Help resources Like most Windows programs, Excel includes on-line help via a Help Menu that includes an Excel help wizard as well as a Contents and Index entry.

Entering data (entering the coffee temperature data in Table 1.7) from the keyboard (data le: Coffee.xls):

In a new Excel workbook, click on cell A1 in Sheet1 and type a labelthat is, a variable name(here, Temp) for the coffee temperatures. Beginning in cell A2 (directly under the column label Temp) type the values for the variable (coffee temperatures from Table 1.7 on page 13) down the column, pressing the Enter key following each entry.

Select File: Save As. In the Save As dialog box, use the Save in drop-down menu to select the destination drive and folder (here we have selected the oppy drive, A:). Enter the desired le name in the File name box (here we have chosen the name Coffee). Excel will automatically add the extension .xls. Click Save in the Save As dialog box.

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Retrieving an Excel spreadsheet containing the coffee temperature data in Table 1.7 on page 13 (data le: Coffee.xls):

Select File : Open In the Open dialog box, use the Look in drop-down menu to select the source drive and folder (here we have selected the oppy drive, A:). Select the desired le name in the File name box (here we have chosen the Excel spreadsheet Coffee.xls). Click the Open button in the Open dialog box.

Creating a runs plot similar to Figure 1.3 (b) on page 14 (data le: Coffee.xls):

Click the Chart Wizard button on the Excel toolbar. In the Chart WizardStep 1 of 4 dialog box, click on Line in the Chart type menu and click Next>. In the Step 2 dialog box, be sure that the range in the Data Range box is the correct range for the data and label. If not, enter the correct range (here A1:A25) in the Data Range box. Under the Series in option, select Columns and click Next>. In the Step 3 dialog box, click Next>. In the Step 4 dialog box, click Finish.

The graph can be repositioned on the spreadsheet by dragging it with the mouse. The graph can be resized by dragging the sizing handles around the edge of the graph. Many formatting options are available by right-clicking various graph elements.

Printing a spreadsheet with embedded graph similar to Figure 1.3 (b) (data le: Coffee.xls):

Click outside the graph for printing to include the data and the graph. (Click on the graph to select only the graph for printing.) Select File : Print. Click OK in the Print dialog box.

There are many print options available in Excel for printinga selected range, selected sheets, or an entire workbookmaking it possible to build and print fairly sophisticated reports directly from Excel.

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Chapter 1 An Introduction to Business Statistics unit. Simply copy Excel results, selected spreadsheet ranges and graphs, to the Windows clipboard. Then paste them into an open word processing document. Once copied to a word processor document, Excel results can be documented, edited, resized, and rearranged as desired into a cohesive record of your analysis. The cut and paste process is quite similar to the Minitab examples at the end of Appendix 1.1. Including Excel output in reports The preceding example showed how to print selected analysis results from Excel. Printing is a useful way to capture a quick hardcopy record of an analysis result and Excel offers a variety of options for building sophisticated reports. However, you may at times prefer to collect selected analysis results and arrange them with related narrative in a word processing document that can be saved and printed as a

MegaStat, which was developed by Professor J. B. Orris of Butler University, is an Excel add-in that performs statistical analyses within an Excel workbook. After it is installed, it appears on the Excel menu and works like When you click on MegaStat on the Excel menu bar, the MegaStat menu appears as shown to the right. Most of the menu options display submenus. If a menu item is followed by an ellipsis (...), clicking it will display a dialog box for that option. any other Excel option. Instructions for installing MegaStat can be found on the CD-ROM that accompanies this text.

A dialog box allows you to specify the data to be used and other inputs and options. A typical dialog box is shown to the right. After you have selected the needed data and options, click OK. The dialog box disappears, and MegaStat performs the analysis. Before we look at specic dialog boxes, we will describe some features that are common to all of the options. MegaStat use is intuitive and very much like other Excel operations; however, there are some features unique to MegaStat.

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Appendix 1.3 Data selection Most MegaStat dialog boxes have elds where you select input ranges that contain the data to be used. Such a eld is shown in the dialog box just Getting Started with MegaStat

37

illustratedit is the long horizontal window with the label Input range to its right. Input ranges can be selected using four methods:

Pointing and dragging with the mouse. Simply select the desired data by pointing to it, left-clicking on the rst data item, and dragging the cursor to select the rest of the data as illustrated above. Since the dialog box pops up on the screen, it may block some of your data. You can move a dialog box around on the screen by placing the mouse pointer over the title bar (colored area at the top) and then clicking and holding the left mouse button while dragging the dialog box to a new location. You can even drag it partially off the screen. You will also notice that when you start selecting data by dragging the mouse pointer, the dialog box will collapse to a smaller size to help you see the underlying data. It will automatically return to full size when you release the mouse button. You can also collapse and uncollapse the dialog box manually by clicking the collapse (-) button at the right end of the eld. Clicking the button again will uncollapse the dialog box. (Never use the button to try to collapse or uncollapse a dialog box.) Using MegaStats AutoExpand feature. Pointing and dragging to select data can be tedious if you have a lot of data. When you drag the mouse down it is easy to overshoot the selection, and

then you have to drag the mouse back until you get the area correctly selected. AutoExpand allows you to select data rapidly without having to drag through the entire column of data. Here is how it works: a Make sure the input box has the focus (that is, click in it to make the input box active). An input box has the focus when the insertion pointer is blinking in it. b Click in one cell of the column you want. If more than one column is being selected, drag the mouse across the columns. c Right-click over the input eld or left-click the label Input range to the right of the input box. The data range will expand to include all of the rows in the region where you selected one row.

This procedure is illustrated on the next page. In the left screenshot, we have left-clicked on one cell in the column of data labeled WaitTime. In the right screenshot, we see the result after we rightclick over the input eld or left-click on the label Input range. Notice that the entire column of data has been selected in the right screenshot. This can be seen by examining the input eld or by looking at the column of data.

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Chapter 1 An Introduction to Business Statistics

With a little practice you nd this is a very efcient way to select data. The only time you cannot use it is when you want to use a partial column of data. You should also be aware that the AutoExpand stops when it nds a blank cell; thus any summations or other calculations at the bottom of a column would be selected. Note: When using these methods of data selection, you may select variables in an alternate sequence by holding the CTRL key while making multiple selections. 3 Typing the name of a named range. If you have previously identied a range of cells using Excels name box, you may use that name to specify a data range in a MegaStat dialog box. This method can be very useful if you are using the same data for several different statistical procedures. Typing a range address. You may type any valid Excel range addressfor example, A1:A101into the input eld. This is the most cumbersome way to specify data ranges, but it certainly works.

rule is that text cells are labels, and numeric cells are data. Output When you click OK in a MegaStat dialog box, it performs some statistical analysis and needs a place to put its output. It looks for a worksheet named Output in the current Excel application. If it nds one, it goes to the end of it and appends its output; if it doesnt nd an Output worksheet, it creates one. MegaStat never changes the users worksheets; it only sends output to its Output sheet. MegaStat attempts to format the output, but remember that the Output sheet is just a standard Excel worksheet and can be modied in any way. You can adjust column widths and change any formatting that you think needs improvement. You can insert, delete, and modify cells. You can copy all or part of the output to another worksheet or to another application such as a word processor. When the program generates output, it adjusts column widths for the current output. If you have previous output from a different option already in the Output sheet, the column widths for the previous output may be altered. You can attempt to x this by manually adjusting the column widths. Alternatively, you can make it a practice to always start a new Output sheet. The Utilities menu has options for deleting the Output sheet, for making a copy of it, and for starting a new one. An example We now give an example of using MegaStat to carry out statistical analysis. When the instructions call for a sequence of selections from a series of menus, the sequence will be presented in the following form: MegaStat: Probability: Counting Rules This notation says that MegaStat is the rst selection from the Excel menu bar; next Probability is selected from the MegaStat pull-down menu; and nally Counting Rules is selected from the Probability submenu.

Data labels For most procedures, the rst cell in each input range can be a label. If the rst cell in a range is text, it is considered a label; if the rst cell is a numeric value, it is considered data. If you want to use numbers as variable labels, you must enter the numbers as text by preceding them with a single quote markfor instance, 2. Even though Excel stores times and dates as numbers, MegaStat will recognize them as labels if they are formatted as time/date values. If data labels are not part of the input range, the program automatically uses the cell immediately above the data range as a label if it contains a text value. If an option can consider the entire first row (or column) of an input range as labels, any numeric value in the row will cause the entire row to be treated as data. Finally, if the program detects sequential integers (1,2,3,...) in a location where you might want labels, it will display a warning message. Otherwise, the

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Appendix 1.3 Getting Started with MegaStat

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Creating a runs plot similar to Figure 1.6 on page 16 (data le: GasMiles.xls):

In the Descriptive Statistics dialog box, enter the mileage data in Table 1.8 on page 16 into column A with the label MPG in cell A1 and with the 49 mileages in cells A2 through A50. Select MegaStat : Descriptive Statistics. Enter the range A1: A50 into the Input range box. The easiest way to do this is to use the MegaStat AutoExpand feature. Simply select one cell in column A (cell A4, for instance) by clicking on the cell. Then, either right-click in the Input range box or left-click on the label Input range to the right of the Input range box. Check the Runs Plot check box. Click OK in the Descriptive statistics dialog box.

MegaStat places the resulting analysis (in this case the runs plot) in an output worksheet. This is a standard Excel worksheet, which can be edited using any of the usual Excel features. For instance, by right-clicking on various portions of the runs plot graphic, you can edit the plot in many ways. Here we have right-clicked on the chart area. By now selecting Format Chart Area, we are able to edit the graphic in a variety of ways.

In the Format Chart Area dialog box, we can add color to the runs plot, change fonts, and edit the plot in many other ways.

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Chapter 1 An Introduction to Business Statistics When we right-click on the chart area and obtain the previously shown pull-down menu, we can alternatively select Chart Options. The Chart Options dialog box allows us to edit chart titles, axes and axis labels, data labels, and many other chart features.

We complete this appendix by demonstrating how MegaStat can be used to generate a set of random numbers (as in Example 1.1 on page 5). To create 100 random numbers between 1 and 2136 similar to those in Table 1.1 (page 6):

Select MegaStat : Generate Random Numbers In the Random Number Generation dialog box, enter 100 into the Number of values to be generated window. Click the right arrow button to select 0 Decimal Places. Select the Uniform tab, and enter 1 into the Minimum box and enter 2136 into the Maximum box. Click OK in the Random Number Generation dialog box.

The 100 random numbers will be placed in the Output Sheet. These numbers are generated with replacement. Repeated numbers would be skipped if the random numbers are being used to sample without replacement.

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Appendix 1.4 Introduction to Internet Exercises

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The Internet and the World Wide Web provide a rich source of data and information on a limitless variety of subjects, among them government statistics, data about rms, and data about consumers. Though you probably have experience using the Internet, in this book we will use the Internet as a source of data for statistical analysis. We do this through Internet exercises in many chapters of this book. These exercises will ask you to go to a website, nd appropriate data (and perhaps copy it) and then analyze the data. The BSC: The McGraw-Hill/Irwin Business Statistics Center The BSC is a collection of Internet-based resources for teaching and learning about business statistics. It includes links to statistical publications, websites, software, and data sources. To go to the BSC, enter the Web address http://www.mhhe.com/business/opsci/bstat/ into your browser. There are also links to the BSC on the CD-ROM included with this text. To see a list of databases accessible through the BSC, click on the Data Bases button on the BSC home screen. Updated links to data and additional Internet exercises can also be found at this texts website http://www.mhhe.com/business/opsci/bowerman/. by Major Groups. (Note that in Chapter 17 we explain how price indexes are constructed.) Construct runs plots of (1) the price index for all items over time (years), (2) the price index for food over time, (3) the price index for fuel oil over time, and (4) the price index for electricity over time. For each runs plot, describe apparent trends in the price index. b By opening the Frequently requested tables from the Statistical Abstract, nd the table of Crimes and Crime Rates, by Type. Repeat the analysis of part (a) for each of (1) total violent crime rate (per 100,000 population) over time, (2) murder rate (per 100,000 population) over time, and (3) robbery rate (per 100,000 population) over time.

1.31

Internet Exercise

The website maintained by Fortune magazine (http:// www.fortune.com) offers a wide selection of interesting business data. Included is the famous Fortune 500 List as well as many other company lists (Americas Most Admired Companies, The Fortune Global 500, etc.). a Go to the Fortune website and nd the Fortune 500 list. Consider the rst 50 companies (ranked 1 through 50 by revenue) and select a random sample of 10 of the top 50 companies, using either a random number table (Table 1.1 on page 6) or the sampling capabilities of Microsoft Excel. Justify that your sample is a random sample by explaining exactly how the sample was selected. Go to the Fortune website and nd the Fortune Global 500 list. Select a systematic sample of 10 companies from this list. Explain exactly how the sample was selected.

1.30

Internet Exercise

The website maintained by the U.S. Census Bureau provides a multitude of social, economic, and government data. In particular, this website houses selected data from the most recent Statistical Abstract of the United States (http://www.census.gov/statab/www/). Among these selected features are Frequently Requested Tables that can be accessed simply by clicking on the label. a Go to the U.S. Census Bureau website and open the Frequently requested tables from the Statistical Abstract. Find the table of Consumer Price Indexes

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