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JSW Steel
Performance Highlights
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
% chg (yoy) 35.3 20.9 (191)bp 74.8 2QFY2012 7,625 1,296 17.0 640 % chg (qoq) 3.1 (3.4) (106)bp 4.4
`698 -
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Adjusted PAT
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
JSW Steels 3QFY2012 standalone net sales were in-line with our estimate, while adjusted net profit was higher than our estimate. However, given the recent rise in the stock price, we recommend Neutral on the stock. Utilization levels rise on a qoq basis: JSW Steels net sales grew by 35.3% yoy to `7,860cr (in-line with our estimate of `7,645cr) on the back of a 20.0% increase in steel volumes and a 21.4% increase in realizations. Capacity utilization improved to 84% at Vijaynagar plant in 3QFY2012, compared to 30-60% during 2QFY2012. However, EBITDA margin slipped by 191bp yoy to 15.9% due to rising input costs. The company reported a tax reversal of `141cr in 3QFY2012 compared to tax payable of `147cr in 3QFY2011, which resulted in adjusted net profit growing by 74.8% yoy to `668cr. Iron ore availability remains a concern: The company reported that its usable iron ore inventory at Vijaynagar plant is expected to last for the next 3-4 months. However, it opined that continuing steel production would remain a challenge until the mining ban is lifted in Karnataka. Outlook and valuation: JSW Steels steel plant utilization improved qoq in 3QFY2012 on the back of increased availability of iron ore. However, we believe that sustaining steel production at current levels would remain a challenge until the mining ban is lifted in Karnataka. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 5.8x FY2012E and 5.0x FY2013E EV/EBITDA, which fairly discounts the anticipated volume growth of JSW Steel. Further, given the recent rise in the stock price, we recommend Neutral on the stock. Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Adj. net profit % chg Adj. EPS (`) OPM (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 37.7 5.2 20.2 36.8
3m (2.9)
1yr (6.2)
7.0 (22.9)
FY2010 18,897 19.0 1,321 7.0 63.8 21.5 11.0 1.5 16.1 10.7 1.5 7.0
FY2011 23,900 26.5 1,754 7.3 78.6 20.4 8.9 1.0 14.3 10.9 1.1 5.6
FY2012E 34,778 45.5 1,074 3.1 44.7 15.4 15.6 0.9 6.7 9.0 0.9 5.8
FY2013E 40,889 17.6 1,741 4.3 72.4 16.7 9.7 0.9 10.1 10.8 0.8 5.0
Bhavesh Chauhan
Tel: 022- 39357800 Ext: 6821 bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com
3QFY12 7,860 5,167 65.7 439 5.6 150 1.9 868 11.0 6,624 84.3 1,236 17 1,253 15.9 282 444 1 (500) 27 0.3 (141) (522.9) 668
3QFY11 5,808 3,598 62.0 301 5.2 128 2.2 650 11.2 4,807 82.8 1,000 36 1,036 17.8 132 346 8 566 9.7 147 26.1 382
yoy% 35.3 43.6 46.0 17.7 33.6 37.8 23.6 (53.3) 20.9 113.5 28.3 (90.4) (95.2) (195.8) 74.8
2QFY12 7,625 4,940 64.8 435 5.7 146 1.9 814 10.7 6,336 83.1 1,289 7 1,296 17.0 234 404 37 (513) 182 2.4 55 30.0 640
qoq% 3.1 4.6 0.9 2.7 6.6 4.5 (4.1) 138.5 (3.4) 20.2 10.0 (97.9) (85.1) (358.7) 4.4
Result highlights
Net sales rise on higher volumes and realizations: JSW Steels net sales grew by 35.3% yoy to `7,860cr (in-line with our estimate of `7,645cr). Net sales growth was driven by increased steel volumes (+20.0% yoy to 1.9mn tonnes) and realization (+21.4% yoy to `43,401/tonne). Capacity utilization improved to 84% at Vijaynagar plant in 3QFY2012 compared to 30-60% during 2QFY2012.
30
(30)
50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0
50
(`/tonne)
(%)
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
Revenue/tonne (LHS)
3QFY12
60 50 40
(%)
30 20 10 0
Revenue (LHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Costs rise in-line with realizations: Iron ore costs increased on account of shut down of captive mine, procurement through e-auctions and purchase from other states (which resulted in higher freight costs). Overall, the companys cost of production increased by 17.3% yoy to `34,716/tonne during the quarter. Hence, EBITDA/tonne grew by only 2.9% yoy to `6,565 and EBITDA margin slipped 191bp yoy to 15.9% during the quarter, although EBITDA increased by 20.9% yoy to `1,253cr.
(%)
25
(US $/tonne)
150 100 50 0
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
EBITDA/tonne (LHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Forex loss leads to a decline in reported PAT: The company reported exceptional item related to forex loss of `500cr during the quarter. The company also reported a tax reversal of `141cr in 3QFY2012 compared to tax payable of `147cr in 3QFY2011, which resulted in adjusted net profit growing by 74.8% yoy to `668cr (higher than our estimate of `482cr). Reported PAT, however, declined by 56.0% yoy to `168cr.
(` cr)
3QFY12
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
margin (RHS)
Strategic initiatives to turnaround associate, JSW Ispat: JSW Steel is setting up a 1mn tonne coke oven battery, 4mn tonne pellet plant and cold rolling mill in an SPV called Amba River Coke (fully owned subsidiary of JSW Steel). These projects would be set up at JSW Ispats Dolvi plant for a capex of `2,140cr to improve JSW Ispats operational and financial performance.
3QFY12
(%)
(%)
Investment rationale
Strong volume growth over FY2011-15: JSW Steel had expanded its capacity by 3.2mn tonnes during 1QFY2012, taking its total capacity to 11mn tonnes the benefits of this will be fully reflected in FY2013. Further, the company plans to expand its steel capacity at Vijaynagar plant from 10mn tonnes to 12mn tonnes by FY2014.
Utilization levels remain at risk: JSW Steels Vijaynagar plants utilization levels improved to 84% during 3QFY2012 (30-60% in 2QFY2012) on account of higher availability of iron ore. Currently, the companys current iron ore inventory is expected to last 3-4 months. However, until the ban is lifted or some of the clean mines are allowed to operate in the region, it will be challenging for the company to sustain steel production utilization at 3QFY2012 levels.
Angel forecast
Bloomberg consensus
Variation (%)
44.7 72.4
51.0 85.3
(12.4) (15.2)
(`)
800 600 400 200 0 Apr-04 Feb-05 Dec-05 Oct-06 Aug-07 Jun-08 Apr-09 Feb-10 Dec-10 Oct-11
2x 7x 12x 17x
(` cr)
40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Apr-04 Feb-05 Dec-05 Oct-06 Aug-07 Jun-08 Apr-09 Feb-10 Dec-10 Oct-11
4x 6x 8x 10x 12x
(`)
2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Apr-04 Feb-05 Dec-05 Oct-06 Aug-07 Jun-08 Apr-09 Feb-10 Dec-10 Oct-11
0.5x 1.5x 2.5x 3.5x
102
13 -
(471) (1,314)
10
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio (%) Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating RoE Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage 1.5 3.2 4.8 2.1 5.2 1.7 1.7 3.7 2.5 0.7 2.4 3.5 0.9 2.9 2.4 1.0 2.7 3.1 0.9 65 12 41 29 0.8 72 11 46 32 0.8 71 11 43 32 0.8 69 12 40 36 0.9 70 12 40 34 0.9 70 12 40 34 17.4 25.7 24.7 8.6 14.5 10.7 10.7 17.3 16.1 10.9 16.8 14.3 9.0 12.3 6.7 10.8 12.9 10.1 22.2 68.4 0.6 9.5 4.8 1.5 16.3 12.6 77.0 0.7 6.3 6.2 2.1 6.6 14.7 70.6 0.7 7.6 4.8 1.7 12.4 13.9 68.0 0.8 7.8 3.9 0.7 10.6 9.4 68.0 1.0 6.6 5.1 0.9 8.0 10.6 68.0 1.1 7.7 4.6 1.0 11.0 87.2 77.3 127.3 14.0 406.3 41.2 38.2 67.5 1.0 401.8 68.8 63.8 154.8 9.5 480.0 78.6 78.6 148.5 10.0 704.6 48.2 44.7 142.5 10.0 742.0 78.0 72.4 188.9 10.0 809.2 9.0 5.5 1.7 2.0 2.0 7.0 1.1 18.3 10.3 1.7 0.1 1.8 9.6 1.1 11.0 4.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 7.0 1.0 8.9 4.7 1.0 1.4 1.1 5.6 0.8 15.6 4.9 0.9 1.4 0.9 5.8 0.8 9.7 3.7 0.9 1.4 0.8 5.0 0.8 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
JSW Steel No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
12