Huancayo 5-6 de marzo, 2007

Proyecto de cooperacin CONAM SMHI: - presentacin de resultados

1. Cmo contaminado es Huancayo? - informacin de monitoreo - las fuentes emisoras y su impacto 2. Qu implicaciones tiene esto? - para la salud de la poblacin - en trminos econmicos

Lars Cecilia H

Tom Osvaldo

3. Consecuencias para el Plan de Accin? Carlos - informacin nueva - recomendaciones de actividades y acciones Milagro Gianni/Lars?

Lima 7 de marzo, 2007

Proyecto de cooperacin CONAM SMHI: - presentacin de resultados

1. Niveles de contaminacin en Huancayo, Chimbote y Lima centro - informacin de monitoreo - las fuentes emisoras y su impacto 2. Estudios relacionando la calidad del aire y la salud - experiences from the Swedish counterpart - el caso Chimbote 3. Antecedentes para la definicin del Plan de Accin para Chimbote - la situacin actual y posibilidades de mejoras - el anlisis de costos y las recomendaciones
4. Objetivos para la segunda fase de la cooperacin (2007-2009)
Lars

Tom Laura

Gianni Osvaldo

Milagro

Chimbote 8 de marzo, 2007

Proyecto de cooperacin CONAM SMHI: - presentacin de resultados

1. Cmo contaminado es Chimbote? - informacin de monitoreo - las fuentes emisoras y su impacto 2. Efectos a la salud de la poblacin - Health Impact Assessment - estudio epidemiolgico de Chimbote 3. Antecedentes para la definicin del Plan de Accin para Chimbote - la situacin actual y posibilidades de mejoras - el anlisis de costos y las recomendaciones
Lars David A

Tom Laura

Pedro Gianni Osvaldo

4. Objetivos para la segunda fase de la cooperacin (2007-2009)

Milagro

Health effects from air pollution: PM PM, main source traffic and long-range transport Short-term effects with no known threshold (studied at long-term average 13 ug/m3 PM2.5 and up; WHO AQG) Critical effects: increased mortality, increased respiratory and cardiovascular morbidity Estimate: 0.5% increase in short-term mortality per 10 ug/m3 PM10

Health effects from air pollution: PM, cont.

Long-term effects above 10 ug/m3 PM2.5 (WHO AQG) Critical effect: increased mortality Estimate: 6% increase in long-term mortality per 10 ug/m3 in the range 7.5-80 ug/m3 (Pope/WHO) PM, main source wind-blown dust (coarse particles) Short-term effects: mortality ?, respiratory morbidity, cardiovascular morbidity? Long-term effects unknown

Health effects from air pollution: Ozone

Short-term effects with variable individual threshold, modified by excercise, from about 100 ug/m3 and up (WHO AQG): airway inflammation, decrease in lung function Estimated baseline 70 ug/m3 Critical effect,: increased respiratory morbidity, increased mortality Estimate 0.3-0.5% increase in daily mortality per 10 ug/m3 Long-term effects unknown (and difficult to study)

Health effects from air pollution: Nitrogen oxides

Nitrogen oxides (NOx) = NO + NO2 NO2 toxic to the airways. Fysiological effect of NO. In urban areas both NO2 and NOx (and also CO) serve as markers for air pollution from traffic and other combustion. NOx contributes to other pollution. Short-term effects (WHO AQG): Critical effect,: increased respiratory morbidity above 200 ug/m3 NO2 (for 1 hour)

Health effects from air pollution: Nitrogen oxides, cont.

Long-term effects: Respiratory effects above 40 ug/m3 NO2 (WHO AQG). New studies show mortality effects above about 30 ug/m3 (when a marker for air pollution from traffic) and reduced lung function growth in children.

Health effects from air pollution: Sulphur dioxide (SO2)

SO2 toxic to the airways. For urban an industrial sources may also be a marker of complex mixtures of pollutants, including PM and metals. Short-term effects (WHO AQG): Critical effect,: increased respiratory morbidity above 500 ug/m3 SO2 (in exercising asthmatics after 10 minutes). Long-term effects: Decreased childhood respiratory disease and all age mortality at decreased levels in Hong Kong (causal?). No consensus on quantification of effects.

Health effects from air pollution Sulphur dioxide, cont.

WHO AQG: 500 ug/m3 for 10 minutes Long-term effects: not known

Health effects from air pollution: Hydrogen sulphide Hydrogen sulphide (H2S) En las Guidelines de la OMS, se recomienda un lmite de 7 g/m3 (promedio 30 minutos) para evitar molestias de olor. Para efectos sobre la salud, la OMS recomienda un lmite de 150 g/m3 para niveles promedio diario.

Comparability of exposure and effects in Peru

Air pollution has a (mostly) marginal effect on health: a perfectly healthy person is very unlikely to die or develop serious disease due to air pollution. Most studies of health effects from air pollution are from North America and Europe.

Comparability of exposure and effects in Peru, cont.

Comparability:

Mixture of biological fuels in engines and for heating, and for pollutants. Relevant for emissions from burning fossil and Population exposure. Ratio population/fixed site exposure level may be higher in Peru due to more open housing Biological effect. Relativelike optimal nutrition (not studied). risk may be higher in Peru due to lack of protective factors Outcome measure. More severe outcomes are likelymost more comparable than less severe. Death is probably the Range. Risk relations should not be applied outside the studied range.
In addition, absolute risk elevation may be higher in Peru due to poorer general health status (not studied). comparable. The observation and reporting of more indirect indicators of morbidity may be very different in different countries. structure (not studied). coarse particles from road dust and of crustal origin.

Calculating extent of health effects

Input data: Population in age classes (local) Mortality in age classes (local) Air pollution level (local) Exposure-risk relation (international) Analysis: Life table (e.g. AirQ by WHO)

Health effects by air pollution in Huancayo: Population data

Population Huancayo, 5-year intervals

2005 Census
Age

80-84 60-64 40-44 20-24 0-4 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 HUANCAYO

Population

Population Chilca, 5-year intervals

80-84
Age

Population El Tambo, 5-year intervals

80-84
Age

60-64 40-44 20-24 0-4 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 CHILCA

60-64 40-44 20-24 0-4 0 5000 10000 Population 15000 20000 EL TAMBO

Population

Health effects by air pollution in Huancayo: Mortality

Correspond to life expectancy at birth: 72.6, 77.0 and 82.6 in Huancayo, El Tambo and Chilca

Health effects by air pollution in Huancayo

Exposure level: 35, 27 and 27 ug/m3 PM2.5 in Huancayo, El Tambo and Chilca Exposure-risk relation: A decrease with 10 ug/m3 PM2.5 gives a decreased overall mortality in ages 30 years and up of 6%. This relation is valid in the range 7.5 to 80 ug/m3.

Health effects by air pollution in Huancayo

Estimated possible gain in life expectancy at birth: 2.0, 1.5 and 1.2 years in Huancayo, El Tambo and Chilca

Health effects by air pollution in Huancayo

Comments: Mortality data is obviously faulty Population overreported? Deaths underreported?

But: Estimate of possible gain in life expectancy not very sensitive to faults in mortality.

Health effects by air pollution in Chimbote: Population data

Population Chimbote, 5-year intervals

80-84
Age

2005 Census
CHIMBOTE

60-64 40-44 20-24 0-4 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

2005 Census

Population

Population Coishco, 5-year intervals

Population Nuevo Chimbote, 5-year intervals

80-84
Age Age

80-84 60-64 40-44 20-24 0-4 0 500 1000 Population 1500 2000 0 5000 10000 15000 NUEVO CHIMBOTE

60-64 40-44 20-24 0-4 COISHCO

Population

Health effects by air pollution in Chimbote: Mortality

Correspond to life expectancy at birth: 62.4, 75.7 and 69.1 in Chimbote, Coishco and Nuevo Chimbote

Health effects by air pollution in Chimbote

Exposure level: 35, 35 and 22 ug/m3 PM2.5 in Chimbote, Coishco and Nuevo Chimbote Exposure-risk relation: A decrease with 10 ug/m3 PM2.5 gives a decreased overall mortality in ages 30 years and up of 6%. This relation is valid in the range 7.5 to 80 ug/m3.

Health effects by air pollution in Chimbote

Estimated possible gain in life expectancy at birth: 1.8, 2.0 and 1.2 years in Chimbote, Coishco and Nuevo Chimbote

Health effects by air pollution in Chimbote

Comments: Mortality data is probably faulty Population wrong reported? Deaths wrong reported?

But: Estimate of possible gain in life expectancy not very sensitive to faults in mortality.