United States Africa Command Public Affairs Office 3 February 2012

Please find attached news clips for February 3, 2012, along with upcoming events of interest and UN News Service briefs. Of interest in todays clips: -U.K. Foreign Minister visits Mogadishu and calls for greater pressure against al Shaabab. -U.S. condemns Northern Mali violence -Boko Haram spokesperson arrested in Nigeria -DRC election results show Kabila win African Football News: - African Cup disrupted by Egypt soccer riot; many point to politics - Nations Cup: Mali progress with 2-1 win over Botswana This message is best viewed in HTML format. U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Please send questions or comments to: publicaffairs@usafricom.mil 421-2687 (+49-711-729-2687) -------------------------------------------Top News related to U.S. Africa Command and Africa William Hague visits Somalia's Mogadishu (BBC) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16851216 February 2, 2012 William Hague has called for renewed pressure against Islamist militants during the first visit to Somalia by a British foreign secretary for 20 years. US Condemns Attacks in Northern Mali (VOA) http://blogs.voanews.com/breaking-news/2012/02/02/us-condemns-attacks-in-northern-mali Voice of America February 2, 2012 The United States has condemned attacks by armed groups on towns in northern Mali.
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Nigeria arrests Boko Haram spokesman Abul Qaqa (BBC) February 1, 2012 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16843938 Police in Nigeria say they have arrested the spokesman of the Boko Haram militant group which has carried out scores of attacks recently. Kabila's party and allies win parliamentary majority (France24) News Wires February 2, 2012 http://www.france24.com/en/20120202-dr-congo-kabila-legislative-elections-pprd-africa DR Congo President Joseph Kabila's People's Party for Reconstruction and Democracy and its allies won an absolute majority in November's contested legislative elections, results showed Thursday. ICC rejects Gaddafi daughter's appeal on jailed brother (Reuters) http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE81109720120202 February 2, 2012 AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - The International Criminal Court (ICC) said on Thursday it had rejected a request by former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi's daughter to submit information in the case of her brother, who is awaiting trial in Libya on rape and murder charges. South Sudan wants more talks to end oil transit row (Reuters) http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE8110B020120202 February 2, 2012 JUBA (Reuters) - South Sudan's President Salva Kiir said on Thursday he wants to end a row with Sudan over oil transit payments but has rejected a proposal requiring Juba to pay billions of dollars and keep exporting crude through the neighbouring country. The two neighbours are locked in a worsening row over disentangling their oil industries after the South split from Sudan and became independent in July, following decades of civil war that ended with a peace deal in 2005. Rival groups clash in Libyan capital (al Jazeera) http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/02/201221185618511575.html February 1, 2012 Fighting near office buildings and hotels in central Tripoli blamed on Zintan and Misrata brigades. African Cup soccer shadowed by violence in Egypt (AP World) http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/S/SOC_EGYPT_AFRICAN_CUP?SITE=AP&SEC TION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT Associated Press By Gerald Imray February 2, 2012

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FRANCEVILLE, Gabon (AP) -- With soccer reeling from the violence in Egypt, players on the other side of the continent at the African Cup of Nations tried to make sense of the "death and sadness" now gripping their sport. The Splintering of Al Shabaab (Foreign Affairs) http://www.foreignaffairs.com/print/134331 Foreign Affairs Magazine February 2, 2012 By Bronwyn Bruton and J. Peter Pham For five years, much of Somalia's long-suffering population has been caught in a deadly stalemate between al Shabaab. Peacekeepers are tasked with defending the country's weak Transitional Federal Government (TFG), which, despite years of backing from regional powers and the West, remains politically dysfunctional and incapable doing anything resembling governing. Kenya raid on Shabaab wins praise (Daily Nation) http://www.nation.co.ke/News/Kenya+raid+on+Shabaab+wins+praise/-/1056/1318212//view/printVersion/-/um1ltxz/-/index.html The Daily Nation February 1, 2012 Kenyas military operation has helped erode Al-Shabaabs control of southern Somalia, the chief US intelligence officer said on Tuesday. Sudan and Congo savaged as world shrugs (USA Today) http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/forum/story/2012-02-01/sudan-congo-humanrights-arab-spring/52922072/1 USA Today By Michael O'Hanlon and John Prendergast 2011 was a year of unprecedented action on behalf of freedom and human rights. When citizens flooded streets throughout the Middle East and North Africa, the U.S. and other countries dropped their long-standing presidential allies and demanded new leadership. U.S. troops war experience aids hostage rescues (AP) http://www.suntimes.com/news/world/10393562-418/us-troops-war-experience-aidshostage-rescues.html LA Sun Times By Jason Straziuso February 2, 2012 U.S. special forces units are compiling a string of successful hostage rescues, thanks to improved technology and a decade of wartime experience. China's commerce ministry to send work team to Libya (Xinhua) http://english.sina.com/china/2012/0201/436510.html Xinhua News Agency February 2, 2012

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China's Ministry of Commerce is to send a work team to Libya to exchange views on China's participation in the African country's post-war reconstruction. -----UN News Service Africa Briefs http://www.un.org/apps/news/region.asp?Region=AFRICA (Full Articles on UN Website) UN invites all Congolese to avoid violence, resolve poll disputes peacefully 2 February With the provisional results of national legislative elections in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) having now been announced, the United Nations today encouraged all actors to use legal channels for resolving any disputes and refrain from the use of force. Ethiopias anti-terrorism laws must not be misused to curb rights UN 2 February A group of independent United Nations human rights experts today spoke out against the ongoing use of anti-terrorism laws to curb freedom of expression in Ethiopia, where several journalists were recently given prison sentences under such legislation. UN official voices concern about possible excessive use of force by Senegalese forces 2 February The United Nations human rights chief today voiced concern about the possible use of excessive force by Senegalese authorities amid the protests that have erupted ahead of the presidential election scheduled for later this month. Cte dIvoire: UN disarmament operation continues near Abidjan 1 February A United Nations voluntary disarmament operation began today in a suburb north of the Ivorian city of Abidjan, aiming to collect illegal weapons still in circulation among the civilian population. ### Upcoming Events of Interest: WHEN: 3:30 - 5:00 p.m. WHAT: New America Foundation (NAF) Discussion on "550 Challenge: World Borderless by February 3, 2018" - promotes the expansion of Internet access to include everyone on earth by the 550th anniversary of Johannes Guttenberg's death. Gutenberg, who invented modern book printing, died on February 3, 1468 before the printing press got credit for ending the Dark Age and setting in motion 200 years of accelerated progress in art, literature, and learning known as the Renaissance. Speakers: Shalini Venturelli, Professor, American University; Rebecca MacKinnon (@rmack); Bernard L. Schwartz Senior Fellow, New America Foundation; John Perry Barlow (@jpbarlow), Cofounder, EFF; Moderator: Daniel Berninger, Founder, 550 Challenge
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WHERE: NAF, 1899 L Street, NW, Suite 400 CONTACT: 202-986-2700; web site: www.newamerica.net SOURCE: NAF - event announcement at: http://newamerica.net/events/2012/550_challenge ### -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------FULL TEXT William Hague visits Somalia's Mogadishu (BBC) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16851216 February 2, 2012 William Hague has called for renewed pressure against Islamist militants during the first visit to Somalia by a British foreign secretary for 20 years. His arrival in the capital, Mogadishu signals the start of a major diplomatic push to restore stability in Somalia. The British government is holding a conference in London on 23 February to try to find a political solution, and tackle piracy and extremism. The first UK envoy for two decades has also been appointed. Tight security Mr Hague said a British embassy would be established in Mogadishu once the security situation allowed, and until then ambassador Matt Baugh would be based in the Kenyan capital Nairobi. Suicide bombings and other attacks by Islamist militants make the city one of the most dangerous in the world. Security was tight for the visit of foreign secretary, who travelled in a fleet of armoured vehicles to meet Somalia's President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed. After the meeting at the presidential palace in Mogadishu, Mr Hague described Somalia as "the world's most failed state". He praised African Union troops for forcing al-Shabab militants out of the city. But he warned that much of the south remained in the hands of the militants, saying: "We need to step this up." The country has been torn apart by two decades of war, beset by drought and famine, and is home to a piracy industry that threatens shipping across the Indian Ocean.
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But analysts say the military fortunes of al-Shabab have dramatically worsened in the last year. Neighbouring Ethiopia and Kenya also have forces in Somalia - and have made advances on al-Shabab in the south and the west. Tackling root causes Mr Hague's visit follows another sign of growing international confidence in the improving security situation, at least in Mogadishu - the UN special envoy to Somalia has moved his office back from neighbouring Kenya to the city after an absence of 17 years. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited in August, and UN chief Ban KiMoon in December, the first visit by a UN secretary general in 18 years. UK International Development Secretary Andrew Mitchell visited Puntland, northern Somalia, over the weekend - after a August visit to Mogadishu. Correspondents say Britain now appears to driving a new international push to tackle the roots causes of Somalia's insecurity and conflict. Representatives from more than 40 nations have been invited to the London conference on Somalia later this month. "The conference will seek to generate a more effective and concerted international approach outside Somalia that addresses the root causes of the conflict; and a new political process inside Somalia that meets the needs of all Somalis," Mr Hague said in a statement. In 2010, MI5 director-general Jonathan Evans warned that it was "only a matter of time" before militants trained in Somali camps inspired acts of violence on the streets of the UK. ### US Condemns Attacks in Northern Mali (VOA) http://blogs.voanews.com/breaking-news/2012/02/02/us-condemns-attacks-in-northern-mali Voice of America February 2, 2012 The United States has condemned attacks by armed groups on towns in northern Mali. A spokeswoman for the State Department, Victoria Nuland, told reporters in Washington Thursday that the United States is concerned about the continued violence in northern Mali towns. She called for a resumption of dialogue toward a peaceful resolution to the ongoing conflict.
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Hundreds of protesters set up barricades and burned tires Thursday in the capital of Mali, following clashes between army troops and Tuareg rebels. Demonstrators brought Bamako to a virtual halt, as they protested the government's handling of a rebellion that has seized several northern towns. Mali's President Amadou Toumani replaced his defense and security ministers Thursday evening in an apparent effort to placate the demonstrators. Sadio Gassama became the new defense minister while Natie Plea became the new security minister, according to a presidential decree. On Wednesday, Malians attacked a Tuareg business and the home of a Tuareg family in the town of Kati. Later, President Amadou Toumani Toure delivered a televised address urging civilians to shun acts of retaliation. Tuareg rebels launched a new rebellion in the north on January 17. Since then, troops have clashed with rebels in several northern towns, including Aguelhok, where military officials say dozens of soldiers were killed. Hundreds of ethnic Tuaregs recently returned to northern Mali from Libya, where they fought alongside troops loyal to ousted leader Moammar Gadhafi. The government of Mali has been holding talks in recent months in an effort to defuse rising tensions in the north. Tuareg rebels say they are seeking independence from the southern-based government, which they say has ignored Mali's impoverished northern desert region. Tuareg nomads are present throughout the Sahel region of Africa. Both Mali and Niger have battled Tuareg uprisings in the last decade. ### Nigeria arrests Boko Haram spokesman Abul Qaqa (BBC) February 1, 2012 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16843938 Police in Nigeria say they have arrested the spokesman of the Boko Haram militant group which has carried out scores of attacks recently. A police official said the man, known by his nom de guerre Abul Qaqa, was arrested in the north-eastern city of Maiduguri, in Borno state. The official told the Associated Press news agency the militant was captured after police tracked his mobile phone.

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More than 150 people were killed by Boko Haram militants last month. A series of co-ordinated explosions ripped apart police buildings, passport offices and immigration centres around the northern city of Kano. It was one of the bloodiest attacks by the group so far. Boko Haram has said it wants to overthrow the national government and install an Islamic state. Its members have frequently attacked police stations and other symbols of state power, but the group has also bombed churches and killed hundreds of people - including many Muslim and Christian civilians. Officials are trying to confirm the identity of the man arrested on Wednesday. "We are still taking to him. Since 'Abu Qaqa' is a pseudonym for the Boko Haram spokesman, we want to be sure of who we have with us," an unnamed official told Reuters news agency. Abul Qaqa has often spoken to journalists in the wake of militant attacks. ### Kabila's party and allies win parliamentary majority By News Wires the 02/02/2012 - 09:09 DR Congo President Joseph Kabila's People's Party for Reconstruction and Democracy and its allies won an absolute majority in November's contested legislative elections, results showed Thursday. AFP - DR Congo President Joseph Kabila's party and its allies won a parliamentary majority in November elections, results showed Thursday, some two months after polls slammed by the opposition and observers. The ruling People's Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD) and its allies captured an absolute majority of about 260 seats in the 500-seat National Assembly while the opposition took about 110 seats, according to figures released by the electoral commission. The rest of the seats are held by a number of very small parties which are not in official alliance with either camp. About 100 parties will be represented in the new parliament, many with just one or two seats. Kabila's party obtained 62 seats, the biggest number -- down from 111 in 2006 elections.

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Opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi's Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS), which had boycotted the 2006 polls, followed with 41 seats. He has dismissed the legislative elections as "rubbish". In the capital Kinshasa, Tshisekedi's UDPS party took five seats compared to the PPRD's four. The announcement of the results had been postponed several times amid criticism of the counting process. In total, almost 19,000 candidates vied at the polls for 500 seats in the parliament of the Democratic Republic of Congo, a vast central African country wracked by two wars from 1997 to 2003. Eastern provinces are still conflict-ridden, partly over control of considerable mineral wealth. Kabila, who has been in power since January 2001, took nearly 49 percent of the vote in the November 28 presidential vote that coincided with parliamentary elections. Tshisekedi came second with 32 percent, but claims he was denied victory by massive fraud and declared himself president days after Kabila took the oath of office. The vote which gave Kabila five more years in power sparked violent protests and was widely criticised for major irregularities by international monitors. Kabila himself admitted there were electoral flaws although he rejected claims that the polls lacked credibility. But Tshisekedi denounced widespread fraud in both elections, while foreign and Congolese observer teams also reported irregularities. Tshisekedi has called on Congolese troops to arrest Kabila "wherever he may be and bring him to me alive and tied-up so that we can prosecute him for the crimes he committed on Congolese soil." Human Rights Watch said security forces have killed at least 24 people and "arbitrarily" arrested dozens since Kabila's disputed victory was announced on December 9. The group said security forces fired on crowds to prevent protests against the result. London-based rights group Amnesty International has denounced what it said was a wave of political arrests, notably of opposition activists, since the elections. The latest results showed nearly 50 women elected to parliament, including Kabila's twin sister Jaynet, who stood as an independent candidate in the southeastern province of Katanga.
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Kabila's youngest brother, Zoe, was also elected in Katanga, as a candidate for the PPRD. The results do not include 17 seats in seven of the country's 169 voting districts, where the electoral commission had applied for the vote to be annulled over election violence or other forms of voter intimidation. ### ICC rejects Gaddafi daughter's appeal on jailed brother (Reuters) http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE81109720120202 Feb 2, 2012 AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - The International Criminal Court (ICC) said on Thursday it had rejected a request by former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi's daughter to submit information in the case of her brother, who is awaiting trial in Libya on rape and murder charges. Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, who was captured disguised as a Bedouin in the Sahara desert in November, has also been indicted by the ICC on charges of crimes against humanity stemming from Libya's civil war last year. On Tuesday, Aisha Gaddafi had asked the court if she could give information about attempts she has made to contact Saif al-Islam, and submitted a document suggesting the Libyan authorities were unwilling to let any foreign lawyer act for him. The court said on Thursday that it had rejected both Aisha's request and a similar one by human rights activist Mishana Hosseinioun. Both requests were "misplaced and contrary" to court procedures, a panel of judges said ruled. Libya's ruling National Transitional Council says Saif al-Islam should be tried at home and would be given a fair hearing. The ICC has reserved the right to insist that he be sent to The Hague. Saif al-Islam's supporters say they doubt he will be given a fair trial in Libya and that he should be tried instead by the ICC in The Hague. He faces the death penalty if found guilty by a Libyan court, but only a prison term if convicted by the ICC. The ICC has jurisdiction over the case because it issued a warrant last year for the arrest of Muammar Gaddafi, Saif al-Islam, and the Libyan leader's intelligence chief, Abdullah al-Senussi. ### South Sudan wants more talks to end oil transit row (Reuters) http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE8110B020120202 February 2, 2012
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JUBA (Reuters) - South Sudan's President Salva Kiir said on Thursday he wants to end a row with Sudan over oil transit payments but has rejected a proposal requiring Juba to pay billions of dollars and keep exporting crude through the neighbouring country. The two neighbours are locked in a worsening row over disentangling their oil industries after the South split from Sudan and became independent in July, following decades of civil war that ended with a peace deal in 2005. The landlocked new nation took three-quarters of the oil production - the lifeblood of both economies - but needs to pay for using northern pipelines and the Red Sea port of Port Sudan. Tension rose when Sudan said last month it started seizing southern oil as compensation for what it called unpaid pipeline transit fees. South Sudan responded last week by shutting down its entire output of 350,000 barrels a day. On Friday, Kiir met Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir on the sidelines of an African Union (AU) summit to discuss oil but failed to reach a deal. Kiir said he had rejected at the meeting a draft agreement by the AU because it would have required Juba to keep selling oil from some fields through Sudan's export facilities. "It is difficult for me to accept a deal that leaves our people vulnerable, dependent and paying billions they do not owe," Kiir said, according to the text of his speech published by the government. NEGOTIATIONS The agreement would also have required South Sudan to supply 35,000 barrels a day to Sudan's refineries, he said. The value of the oil would be deducted from payments of $5.4 billion South Sudan also would have to make under the proposal to help Sudan cope with the loss of southern oil. Kiir said the agreement had also not covered other conflicts such as marking the joint border and finding a solution for the disputed region of Abyei. "I want to be clear that the Republic of South Sudan is committed to continue negotiations but we would also be wise to pursue efforts to enhance our economic selfsufficiency, prosperity and national security should we not find common ground with Khartoum for now," he said. South Sudan said last month it would build an alternative pipeline to Kenya within eleven months to end dependency on Sudan's facilities. But analysts are sceptical the project will take off because it would have to cross rough terrain and may not be viable.
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Sudan accused South Sudan on Wednesday of being "hostile" towards Khartoum in the oil talks. ### Rival groups clash in Libyan capital (Al Jazeera) http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/02/201221185618511575.html February 1, 2012 A gun battle between rival groups has raged near office buildings and five-star hotels in central Tripoli, in the latest sign of unrest in Libya following the overthrow and killing of Muammar Gaddafi. Witnesses said gunfire could be heard on Wednesday coming from near the beach house of Gaddafi's son, Saadi, on the Mediterranean Sea at Tripoli. Thick smoke spewed out from near the house, and ambulance sirens could be has heard as rival groups, using heavy machine guns, clashed in the mostly business district of Tripoli. Interior ministry forces had blocked a kilometre-long section of road alongside the beach, but they did not appear to be intervening. A Reuters reporter said two pick-up lorries, with anti-aircraft guns on the back, drove past towards the fighting. Naji Awad, an interior ministry official, said the fighting was between members of the Misrata and Zintan brigades, two cities that played crucial roles in the fight against Gaddafi's forces. "There are two groups fighting," Awad, who was monitoring the battle from near the fighting, said. "Misrata controls a police academy building up the road and they are fighting with Zintan. We do not know why they are fighting." Libya's ruling National Transitional Council (NTC) is struggling to impose its authority on the country and form a functioning national police force and army. Since Gaddafi was killed by opposition fighters in October, armed groups have clashed in areas around the country as they try to gain influence in the new Libya. Several groups from outside have set up bases in Tripoli. They clash with each other intermittently often because of disputes over who controls which neighbourhoods of the city. The violence on Wednesday was the first time in weeks that a major gun battle had broken out in the centre of Tripoli.
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### African Cup soccer shadowed by violence in Egypt (AP World) Associated Press http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/S/SOC_EGYPT_AFRICAN_CUP?SITE=AP&SEC TION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT By Gerald Imray February 2, 2012 FRANCEVILLE, Gabon (AP) -- With soccer reeling from the violence in Egypt, players on the other side of the continent at the African Cup of Nations tried to make sense of the "death and sadness" now gripping their sport. "While we are in the middle of playing in the most beautiful festival of African football, there are people dying in a stadium," Gabon goalkeeper Didier Ovono said. "I'm truly sad for the Egyptian people. Football should be a party, not somewhere for settling scores." At least 74 people were killed in clashes between rival fans at a league game Wednesday. The riot at the stadium in Port Said erupted when Al-Masry fans stormed the field following a rare 3-1 win against Al-Ahly, one of Egypt's most popular clubs. But the violence went beyond the deep rivalry between the teams. A network of rabid fans known as Ultras vowed vengeance, accusing the police of intentionally letting rivals attack them because they have been at the forefront of protests over the past year, first against former leader Hosni Mubarak and now the military. The African Cup, the continent's soccer showpiece, is down to the quarterfinals this weekend: co-host Gabon vs. Mali, Ghana vs. Tunisia, Ivory Coast vs. Equatorial Guinea and Zambia vs. Sudan. These are enticing matchups involving strong teams alongside hopeful - and so far successful - underdogs. But the celebrations will be put on hold when all four quarterfinals are preceded by a minute's silence in honor of the fans who died when they were beaten, stabbed and crushed against a wall after the game in Port Said. "It is not normal that players are attacked and that people must die in the stadium," Gabon coach Gernot Rohr said. "I think it is very, very sad, very bad for football." Ivory Coast coach Francois Zahoui called it a "tragedy" and "great pity." "We are there to give joy and spread enthusiasm to the people, and if around the stadium there is only death and sadness, then we feel bad," Zahoui said. FIFA President Sepp Blatter described the violence in Egypt as a "black day for football." Issa Hayatou, president of the African soccer federation, said the sport in Africa was "in a state of mourning."

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Zambia, which opens the knockout stages in Bata, Equatorial Guinea on Saturday, knows of soccer tragedy. In 1993, a plane crash off the coast of the Gabonese capital Libreville venue for the Feb. 12 final - left 18 members of the national team dead. ### The Splintering of Al Shabaab (Foreign Affairs) http://www.foreignaffairs.com/print/134331 Foreign Affairs Magazine February 2, 2012 By Bronwyn Bruton and J. Peter Pham For the better part of five years, much of Somalia's long-suffering population has been caught in a deadly stalemate between al Shabaab, an al Qaeda-linked militant group, and African Union peacekeepers, known as AMISOM. The peacekeepers are tasked with defending the country's weak Transitional Federal Government (TFG), which, despite years of backing from regional powers and the West, remains politically dysfunctional and incapable doing anything resembling governing. Fielding an army of its own remains a distant aspiration. That is why quelling the insurgency has fallen entirely on AMISOM. Over the last 18 months or so the 12,000 strong force has honed its tactics and made gains, however stilting, against al Shabaab. Insistent that no American boots hit the ground in Somalia, Washington has backed the mission. (That is, of course, no American boots on the ground with the exception of last week, when a Navy Seal team rescued two aid workers in central Somalia, some 500 kilometers north of Mogadishu.) In return for their troop contributions to AMISOM, the United States has given Burundi and Uganda several hundred million dollars in salary, equipment, training, and logistical support. Perhaps more importantly, Washington now calls both countries allies. But other powers are involved in the battle now, too. In November, around one thousand Ethiopian troops entered central Somalia in an effort to distract al Shabaab from the floundering Kenyan incursion of around 1,500 troops into the far south. Kenya's decision to invade seems to have been a long time in the making, but it was not coordinated with Washington or AMISOM; more, it proved ill-timed, since it coincided with Somalia's rainy season. For the first two months, Kenya's heavy military equipment was, literally, stuck in the mud just inside Somalia's border. As the Kenyan government helplessly watched its bills pile up, al Shabaab's fighters kept just out of rifle range. Since December, when the rains ended and the Ethiopians stepped in, Kenya has fared somewhat better. But Nairobi has yet to articulate a coherent strategy and, worse, it is belatedly asking for Western assistance to cover the cost of the occupation. By some crude measures, the ad-hoc alliance between Kenya, Ethiopia, and AMISOM has strained al Shabaab, forcing the movement to contend with attacks on three separate fronts. Al Shabaab's decision to withdraw from Mogadishu last August might have been strategic, but its subsequent loss of Beletweyne and other towns along the Kenyan border
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has raised hopes that, although the group still controls large swathes of territory in southern Somalia, there may nevertheless be an end to the violence in sight. Washington would cheer al Shabaab's defeat, but, as is often the case in the Horn of Africa, the United States should be careful what it wishes for. Al Shabaab's leadership is already divided among nationalist factions of clan-based militia leaders, who are mainly determined to oust the TFG and put their own clans in power. They count upwards of 7,000 in their ranks and make up the bulk of the group's members. In the wake of a military defeat, the nationalists, who enjoy the support of substantial constituencies on the ground, are likely to cast off the al Shabaab banner, but will retain their importance as clan-based militia leaders and clerics. They will continue to play politics, and, depending on the incentives they're offered, will act as influential spoilers or peacemakers in any emergent political order. Some of these leaders, including Mukhtar Robow and Hassan Dahir Aweys, have been linked to al Qaeda, but the United States would do well to tolerate them, because the Somali public generally perceives them as legitimate. But there is a smaller group of hardliner al Shabaab radicals who, with their foreign supporters in the Gulf, have a transnational jihadist agenda and would prefer to target U.S. assets in the region. In a nightmare scenario, they might deploy a U.S.-passport holding Somali to attack inside the United States. Until now, the nationalists and radicals have been held together by mutual benefit -- the radicals have gained a foothold in Somalia's slippery clan system and in return, the nationalists have received funds and technical training from abroad, including from the Middle East and South Asia. The nationalists, who are worried about keeping up the flow of remittances to the Somali public, have mostly prevented the radicals from striking beyond Somalia. A break between the two factions would liberate the radicals from that constraint, while making Somalia a less attractive haven. The question then becomes whether al Shabaab's radicals would be able to re-implant themselves among the radicalized and disenfranchised youths in Kenya or the many frustrated opposition movements in East Africa -- for example, Uganda's militant Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). Addis Ababa, Kampala, and Nairobi all present attractive targets, but the entire eastern seaboard of Africa, and even Johannesburg, would theoretically be vulnerable to attack. It would be a strange twist of counterterrorist fate: the successful battle against Islamist militants would catalyze al Shabaab's evolution into a regional terrorist organization. Despite its areas of control, a majority of the Somali population actually despises al Shabaab. That is for a simple reason: the group is corrupt. Since gaining control of much of the Somali countryside in 2007, al Shabaab has invested tremendous time and energy in building up what is essentially a racket "taxing" businesses -- including on the proceeds of pirate operations, which are one of the most iconic, if not necessarily most lucrative of Somali enterprises -- in its areas of control. But while the militants fill their coffers, the population starves. And although al Shabaab controls the security situation in much of the country, it has never taken up the real responsibility of governing, preferring to leave the daily decisionmaking in the hands of the local clans.
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A central tenet of counterinsurgency strategy is that an insurgency's final defeat requires a credible political alternative to step into the ensuing power vacuum. In Somalia, the problem is that the TFG is not up to the task. Corruption is rampant with the TFG, too: a confidential donor-supported audit showed that 96 percent of bilateral aid awarded between 2009-2010 simply disappeared. Without military protection from AMISOM, which has created a sort of "green zone" around the presidential palace, the transition government's hotels and offices would be overrun. The bottom line is that the TFG is, on its best day, little more than a drain down which international funds disappear. The TFG's myriad failures is what made it possible -- or, as Addis Ababa and Nairobi saw it, necessary -- for Ethiopian and Kenyan troops to invade. Both countries have backed political and military proxies in Somalia to protect their interests. These proxies, including the Sufi militia Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama and regional administrations, such as those in Azania and Jubbaland, intend to compete rather than cooperate with the TFG for international resources and influence. Some have tried to depict al Shabaab as a transnational terrorist organization, but that is largely a misconception. Recently, a group of senior leaders of the nationalist wing independently announced their intention to re-name al Shabaab the "Islamic Emirate of Somalia" and henceforth focus on local governance -- a direct challenge to those who would see the group move closer to al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and other nearby terrorist networks. Indeed, over its seven-year history, al Shabaab's actions have largely been domestically oriented, invested more in the nationalist goal of removing AMISOM and the TFG from Mogadishu than in fighting a war with the rest of the world. Yet, as al Shabaab splinters, the group's radical core will seek new allies. These will most likely be drawn from the growing cohort of politically disaffected youth throughout East Africa. They need not be Somali. One can already witness the early stages of this process in the rush by the Nairobi-based Muslim Youth Center (commonly known as the "Pumwani Muslim Youth") to become al Shabaab's mouthpiece in Kenya. But deeper networks are forming out of sight and further afield, as the UN Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea documented last year in its report to the Security Council, which also noted that non-Somali Kenyan nationals already constitute the largest non-Somali group in al Shabaab. Al Shabaab could even reach across the Gulf of Aden to expand the links it already has with al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, which could provide new sources of funding and a renewed connection with al Qaeda core. Or it could seek to link up with al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb or with Nigeria's increasingly dangerous Boko Haram sect, with which it already has some interactions. Ultimately, the newly independent radicals could seek to be the official local franchise of al Qaeda, or worse -- they could eschew the Middle Eastern influence and weave regional grievances into their own new jihadist narrative. Over the past six years, U.S. development and humanitarian assistance to Somalia has declined dramatically (even in the wake of the worst famine in decades), there have been uncountable civilian casualties resulting from indiscriminate fire, millions of people have
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been starved from their homes, and there have been no state-building efforts worth the name. Although there have been perfunctory nods to governance and peace building, U.S. policy has largely revolved around counterterrorism. And true, beating the terrorists in Somalia might, in some sense, win the war. But it will not keep the peace. If the United States were to attempt some modest steps toward assisting the Somalis to resolve their conflicts and reconstitute their government -- as it certainly should -- the effort would more effectively be made in coordination with its existing partners among the Muslim countries. Turkey, for example, is an increasingly popular presence in Somalia and is one of the few countries to even dare open an embassy in Mogadishu. And even then, the effort should fall under the mantle of humanitarian and development assistance, not as a footnote in a global counterterrorism campaign. It might not be possible to keep the radical elements of al Shabaab from scattering across the Horn of Africa. The group's vital networks already extend far beyond Somalia. Much of its funding, and all of its popular support, come from abroad. In that sense, al Shabaab's adventure in Somalia has served al Qaeda's purpose. It has provided an old and fairly tarnished group of foreign radicals with new prestige, allowing them to inspire and radicalize new cohorts of disaffected youth across East Africa, and particularly in Kenya. Somalia is not -- and never has been -- a hospitable haven for al Qaeda, and its utility is now clearly exhausted. The next and more dangerous stage of the jihad lies in Kenya, Libya, Nigeria, and Uganda. The best that Washington can do now is to close the book on its ill-fated war in Somalia. The easiest way to do this would be to signal a willingness to live with al Shabaab's disaffected nationalist branch, provided that they open the parts of Somalia that they control to humanitarian relief and make a break with the group's hardcore leadership and its ambitions of transnational jihad. This will not solve the problem of keeping hardliners from branching out and creating a regional terrorist threat -- that ship has already sailed. But it is the only way to end the conflict in Somalia. Opening a path for parts of al Shabaab to participate in the political process may be distasteful to the West, but the White House should bear in mind that the basic outline of the Somali conflict has not changed. The population remains disaffected from the TFG. Heavily splintered, clan factions are quickly evolving into autonomous political entities. National reconciliation remains a fantasy, so there is no simple military solution to the crisis. In a sense, with the gains made in recent months, there are now two al Shabaabs, and if Washington and the UN ignore that, it will be at the cost of another decade of chaos, anguish, and death. Figuring out how to engage one, however, while declaring a new and separate war on the other, might actually start paving a path to peace that is more than just a fantasy. ### Kenya raid on Shabaab wins praise (Daily Nation)

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http://www.nation.co.ke/News/Kenya+raid+on+Shabaab+wins+praise/-/1056/1318212//view/printVersion/-/um1ltxz/-/index.html The Daily Nation February 1, 2012 Kenyas military operation has helped erode Al-Shabaabs control of southern Somalia, the chief US intelligence officer said on Tuesday. The Islamist insurgents have been weakened by internal divisions and diminished local support due in part from military pressure from Kenya, Ethiopia, African Union forces and Somali government troops, director of national intelligence James Clapper said in an assessment of threats to US security. The annual report cautions, however, that Kenya and other Al-Shabaab opponents must win support of local clans to consolidate the gains. Cycle of weak governance Overall, the American intelligence network projects continued instability in Somalia. We see few signs that Somalia will escape the cycle of weak governance, Mr Clappers report declares. The countrys government almost certainly will be bogged down with political infighting and corruption that impede efforts to improve security. Al-Shabaab and other affiliates of Al-Qaeda now pose a greater threat to US interests than do the Pakistan-based remnants of Osama bin Ladens original organisation. The intelligence projection also says South Sudan this year will face serious challenges that threaten to destabilise its fragile, untested and poorly resourced government. It says ethnic disputes will undermine national cohesion, and the government will struggle to provide security. ### Sudan and Congo savaged as world shrugs (USA Today) http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/forum/story/2012-02-01/sudan-congo-humanrights-arab-spring/52922072/1 USA Today By Michael O'Hanlon and John Prendergast 2011 was a year of unprecedented action on behalf of freedom and human rights. When citizens flooded streets throughout the Middle East and North Africa, the U.S. and other countries dropped their long-standing presidential allies and demanded new leadership. When massive human rights abuses loomed in Libya and Ivory Coast, the international community acted decisively. That backdrop makes it all the more puzzling why the two countries where human rights abuses are worst in the world Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo have received such comparatively tepid international responses.

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In the past quarter-century, Sudan and Congo have collectively sustained roughly 7.75 million war-related deaths and unrivaled additional human suffering from the use of rape as a war weapon, the recruitment of child soldiers, mass displacement and chronic poverty. By contrast, fewer than 1,000 people died in Egypt in 2011 in a year where the violent suppression of protests nonetheless sparked a revolution and a global outrage that brought down a longstanding autocrat. In Libya, no more than a few thousand people had died from the violence when President Obama and other NATO leaders and the Arab League admirably chose to support the resistance and protect beleaguered populations. Even after a year of war, perhaps 10,000 to 20,000 died in all tragic figures, to be sure, but the sort of thing that routinely happens in a month or two in Congo or Sudan. In Yemen and Syria, where many eyes are focused these days, the 2011 tolls were perhaps 1,000 and 5,000 respectively. Yet we quite properly and actively debate how to urgently bring the killing to an end as soon as possible. Time for 'basic decency' At a time when the U.S. involvement in Iraq's war has ended and the Afghanistan mission is beginning to decline in scale, 2012 offers the world a chance to amend its past failings and show the people of Sudan and Congo the kind of basic decency that motivated intervention in Libya. Policymakers pin their hopes on the separation of South Sudan from the main part of the country in 2011 and recent elections in Congo as signs of progress. But this is pure hopefulness, not policy. The two Sudans are in active dispute over several regions along their new border, where the Abyei area was ethnically cleansed by the Khartoum regime. And now, internally, the Sudan government aims to do the same to the non-Arab populations in South Kordofan and Blue Nile regions. In Congo, the December election was quite possibly stolen by President Joseph Kabila's cronies, and fighting continues in the east over the illegal extraction of one of the richest non-petroleum natural resource bases in the world. The United Nations peacekeeping mission in Congo is large by global standards but deploys fewer than 20,000 foreign troops for a country the size of Western Europe and twice the population of either Iraq or Afghanistan. Darfur and South Sudan have similarly undermanned peacekeeping missions, leaving them front row seats for some of the world's worst war crimes. Though more peacekeepers could help protect civilians, the peacekeepers need a peace to keep. Sudan's border populations need an international community willing to break the Khartoum government's blockade on humanitarian aid and to protect them from relentless indiscriminate aerial bombardment. They need a diplomatic surge involving China and the U.S. in support of African mediation. It should apply pressure, including through the threat of biting sanctions, aimed at addressing the myriad conflicts within Sudan and the brewing resumption of war between Sudan and newly independent South Sudan.
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Equal treatment The Congolese people need an international community willing to stand up to a government that likely stole the election, just as was the case when Russia's Vladimir Putin, Afghanistan's Hamid Karzai and other world leaders took liberties with their countries' respective votes in recent years. They need international action to deal with the government forces and other armed groups that profit from massive and violent smuggling of minerals that power our cellphones, laptops, and other household products unnecessarily tainted with this conflict mineral trade. Again, economic pressure could be our greatest point of realistic leverage. In both Congo and South Sudan, a serious and expanded investment in professionalizing army and police forces will be crucial to future stability. The details of what can help promote human rights and freedoms in Sudan and Congo can be debated, but it is uncontestable that united global action is imperative. Libya, Egypt, Ivory Coast and other examples demonstrate that decisive international action led by top government officials can make a huge difference. The long-suffering people of Sudan and Congo hope they are next in line. Michael O'Hanlon is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a former Peace Corps volunteer in Congo and author most recently of The Wounded Giant: America's Armed Forces in an Age of Austerity. John Prendergast is co-founder of the Enough Projectand co-author most recently ofUnlikely Brothers. ### U.S. troops war experience aids hostage rescues (AP) http://www.suntimes.com/news/world/10393562-418/us-troops-war-experience-aidshostage-rescues.html LA Sun Times By JASON STRAZIUSO February 2, 2012 NAIROBI, Kenya Roy Hallums was enduring his 311th day of captivity, blindfolded, his hands and feet bound, stuffed into a hole under the floor of a farm building outside Baghdad. He heard a commotion upstairs and managed to get the blindfold off. Delta Force troops broke open the hatch. An American soldier jumped down. He looks at me and points and says, Are you Roy? I say yes, and he yells back up the stairs: Jackpot! Hallums recalled in a phone interview with The Associated Press six years after his rescue. Another mission by elite U.S. troops took place just last week, this time in Somalia, resulting in an American and a Danish hostage being rescued and nine kidnappers killed.

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U.S. special forces units are compiling a string of successful hostage rescues, thanks to improved technology and a decade of wartime experience. But despite technological advances like thermal imaging and surveillance drones, the raids remain high-risk. Success or failure can depend on a snap decision made by a rescuer with bullets flying all around, or determination by kidnappers to kill any captives before they can be freed. In 2010, the U.S. Navys SEAL Team 6 tried to rescue Linda Norgrove, a Scottish aid worker, from her Taliban captors in Afghanistan. She was killed by a grenade thrown in haste by one of the American commandoes. The kidnappings of foreigners living or traveling overseas continues unabated, as it has for decades. While the probability of a person being kidnapping is low, abductions do occur regularly, especially in high-risk nations like Somalia, Pakistan, Mexico and Colombia. Even those who are supremely aware of the risks can disappear. In December 2006, Felix Batista, an American anti-kidnapping expert and negotiator for hostage releases, was kidnapped in Saltillo, Mexico, and hasnt been heard from since. Just last Tuesday, armed tribesmen in Yemen kidnapped six United Nations workers: an Iraqi, a Palestinian, a Colombian, a German and two Yemenis. On Jan. 20, kidnappers grabbed an American and held him for a week before releasing him, perhaps after a ransom was paid. U.S. troops have been tasked with rescues mostly in areas where American forces were already stationed, like Afghanistan, Iraq and around Somalia, said Taryn Evans, an expert on kidnappings at AKE, a risk mitigation company outside London. As theyve gotten more experienced, theyve gotten better. In 2009, SEAL sharpshooters killed three Somali pirates holding the American captain of the Maersk Alabama hostage in a lifeboat. And late last month, U.S. Navy SEALs parachuted into Somalia under cover of night, then moved on foot to where captors were holding an American woman and a Danish man who had been kidnapped together in October. The SEALs killed nine captors and rescued the two hostages while suffering no casualties themselves in the Jan. 25 operation. Their skill in carrying out such missions has been honed by Americas two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, said Seth Jones, a civilian adviser to the commanding general of the U.S. special operations forces in Afghanistan from 2009-2011. They have conducted so many operations in these areas, from hostage rescues to strike operations to capture-kill missions. What it does is significantly improves the competence of special operations, Jones told The Associated Press. He said commando missions are now routine.

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Though Navy SEAL Team 6 rescued the American and the Dane, one American kidnapped in January in Somalia remains behind. His captors told AP they moved him several times in the hours immediately after the SEAL raid, out of fear the U.S. military could try another rescue attempt. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State William Burns said this week the U.S. is very concerned about the remaining hostage and that Washington is following the case closely and taking it very seriously. Its an essential obligation for any government to do everything we can to protect our citizens and thats exactly what President Obama did when he ordered the successful hostage rescue in Somalia, Burns said. Rescues entail risk, but Hallums, who was kidnapped by a gang in November 2004, is thankful the U.S. military carries them out. Without a rescue attempt, the former contractor from Memphis, Tennessee, said: I was going to be dead for sure. Hallums captors were demanding $12 million for his release. His Saudi Arabia-based employer which provided support services for U.S. troops offered $1 million. Hallums noted that a successful rescue requires the work of many more people than the commandoes who carry out the raid. The FBI, CIA and National Security Agency all work to gather information, data that is then turned over to military intelligence, where an operations officer devises a rescue plan. You hear about SEAL Team 6 but behind them theres hundreds of people working to get information that they can take out and execute the rescue, Hallums said. Conducting a rescue involves life-and-death calculations. The teams must assess the risk of the raid, both to the military personnel and the hostages themselves. Is it certain that the hostage is at the location? How many people are on guard? Are they alert 24 hours a day? Are the guards armed and are they likely to shoot at the invading force? One other important part of the equation: Would the guards shoot and kill the hostage if they knew a rescue was under way? A rescue team arriving in noisy helicopters can doom the hostages they want to rescue. Thats what happened when Colombian army troops, who have a lot of experience in hostage situations, went in to rescue 13 hostages including a state governor and a former defense minister in 2003 in the jungles of northern Colombia. The rebels holding the hostages heard the helicopters approaching and began executing the hostages. Just three survived. The rescuers arrived to find bodies scattered all over.

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In 2009, an Afghan translator kidnapped alongside a New York Times reporter was killed in a hail of bullets during a rescue attempt by British commandoes. Such deaths underscore the dangers of hostage rescues. You dont want dead SEALs. That has a whole range of military and political ramifications, said Jones, who has a book called Hunting in the Shadows: The Pursuit of al Qaida since 9/11 coming out in May. You also dont want dead hostages. Sometimes you get this stuff wrong, since youre always dealing in probability. Jones said he lacks data to know if the number of hostage rescues is rising, but that special operations activities are increasing overall. The military at large is undergoing financial cutbacks, he noted, but the budget for special operations forces is intact. Technology has improved the chances of success. Aerial drones can monitor guard activity and provide a layout of the location. Watching a pattern of life allows the military to make educated guesses about the chances for success. But even with that advantage, Evans said no mission is guaranteed success. The Somali captors could have shot and killed the American and Danish hostages during last weeks raid if they had seen the SEALs coming, she said. Thats why most people try to reach a negotiated rescue a ransom payment instead. But Hallums said even though hostage rescues are risky, sometimes they have to be done. Theres risk, but look at the risk I was in. I was going to be dead for sure 100 percent, Hallums said. So its better odds with them coming in to try and help you out. Because otherwise you have no chance. ### China's commerce ministry to send work team to Libya (Xinhua) http://english.sina.com/china/2012/0201/436510.html Xinhua News Agency February 2, 2012 BEIJING, Feb 01, 2012 (Xinhua via COMTEX News Network) -- China's Ministry of Commerce is to send a work team to Libya to exchange views on China's participation in the African country's post-war reconstruction. The work team, led by Wang Shenyang, director of the ministry's foreign investment and economic cooperation department, will visit Libya from Feb. 4 to Feb. 8, the ministry said in a statement on its website. The team also includes representatives from Chinese companies that have business operations in Libya.

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The visit was first planned in October, but was delayed due to the Libyan civil war. The work team will visit Tripoli and Benghazi to check the damage to Chinese companies' assets caused by Libya's political conflicts and exchange views with Libyan officials on the future operation of projects which Chinese companies had already undertaken before the civil war, according to the statement. Making appropriate arrangements for the projects' implementation is beneficial to the improvement of Libyan people's livelihoods as the projects mainly involve housing, railways and telecommunications, the ministry said in the statement. China encourages Chinese companies to participate in Libya's reconstruction and it is willing to deepen economic and trade ties with Libya, the ministry said. ### END REPORT

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