Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 27

CASE STUDY I

FAIRHOLME
Ignore the crowd.

CURRENT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY


Wehaveidentifiedapubliccompany:
Tradesatlessthanonethirdbookvalue Corebusinessesgenerating1%returnonassetsand10%returnonequity Fortressbalancesheet LargestU.S.retaildepositmarketshareandservesoneineverytwoU.S.households Operatesinall50statesandservesclientsinover100countries Essentialtoglobaleconomicsecurity

Soundinteresting?
FAIRHOLME

Ignore the crowd.

Wecertainlythinkso, andwearenotalone.

Bank of America is a strong, wellled company...I am impressed with the profitgenerating abilities of this franchise, and that they are acting aggressively to put their challenges behind them.
WarrenE.Buffett ChairmanandCEO,BerkshireHathaway August25,2011
FAIRHOLME

Ignore the crowd.

InvestmentThesisforBankofAmerica(BAC)
ReasonableExpectations

1% Returnon
Assets

10% Returnon
OwnersEquity

20% ImpliedAnnual
ReturnonInvestment

Thisisareasonable aftertaxprofitincurrent marketconditions.

Thisisareasonablereturn evenatheightenedcapital ratiosexpectedthiscycle.

Thisisareasonablereturn whenyoubuystockatless thanhalfbookvalue.

FAIRHOLME

Ignore the crowd.

BankofAmerica:A200YearHistory
ExtensiveReach,ExtraordinaryBreadth

FAIRHOLME

*BankofAmericawascreatedthroughnumerousmergersandacquisitions overthelasttwocenturies,someofwhicharedepictedabove.

Ignore the crowd.

BankofAmericasGlobalFranchise
5,702Branches,17,817ATMs,and58millionconsumerandsmallbusinessrelationships 17,300FinancialAdvisorsserveclientsinover100countries
$2,500,000

WORLDWIDE PRESENCE AND ASSET GROWTH

Dollars(inmillions)

$2,000,000

$1,500,000

$1,000,000

$500,000

$0
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

TotalAssets
*BankofAmericaconductsglobaloperationsintheblueshadedgeographicareasdenotedabove.

FAIRHOLME

Ignore the crowd.

InvestinginourCircleofCompetence
Experiencedwithfinancialcompanies Favorableearningspower
$60
Initiatedpurchaseafter thefinancialcrisis.

Fixableproblems Availableatattractiveprices

$50

DollarsPerShare

$40

$30

$20

$10

$0 2000 2001 2002 2003 BookValue


FAIRHOLME

2004

2005

2006 Cash

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

MarketPrice

Revenue
Ignore the crowd.

U.S.HousingMarketisStabilizing
NewSingleFamilyHomeSalesTrendingUpward

Source:NationalAssociationofHomeBuilders

FAIRHOLME

Ignore the crowd.

U.S.JobMarketisStrengthening
InitialJoblessClaimsTrendingLower
700

InitialJoblessClaims(inThousands)

650

600

550

500

450

400

350

300 January February March April May 2009 June 2010 July 2011 August September October November December

FAIRHOLME

Ignore the crowd.

FinancialSectorFundamentalsAreImproving
Youvegottoadmititsgettingbetter...
FDIC3Q2011QUARTERLY BANKING PROFILE:INSURED INSTITUTION PERFORMANCE
Netincomeroseto$35.3billionasprovisionexpensesfellfurther Loanlossprovisionsdeclinedforaneighthconsecutivequarter Reportedrevenuesincludeaccountinggainsatlargebanks Loanlossespostedfifthquarterlydeclineinarow Noncurrentloanlevelsfellforasixthconsecutivequarter Loanlossreservesdeclinedforsixthquarterinarow Internalcapitalgrowthimproved Commerciallendingactivityrose Flowoflargedenominationdepositsintolargebanksincreased

FAIRHOLME

Ignore the crowd.

BACFundamentalsAreImproving
alittlebetterallthetime.
$600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000

FAIRXHoldingPeriod
$200,000 $100,000 $0 $4,000

LongTermDebtDecline 27%declinesinceQ12010

$2,000 $0

ChargeOffs 62%declinesinceQ12010 QoQdecreasesince2010

LongTermDebt $1,060,000 $1,040,000 $1,020,000 $1,000,000 $980,000 $960,000 $940,000 $920,000

ChargeOffs 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0

Deposits 6%increasesinceQ12010 Reflectsstrongcustomerbase

Capital SufficientTier1Capital

Tier1commonEquityRatio Deposits
*Seelastpageforsupplementaryinformation.

Tier1RiskBasedCapitalRatio

Dollars(inmillions)

TotalRiskBasedCapitalRatiocapitalratio*

FAIRHOLME

Ignore the crowd.

BACConsumerSpending ShowingSignsofImprovement
$41,000

BACConsumer Spending($MM)*

$39,000

$37,000

$35,000

$33,000

$31,000

$29,000

$27,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2009

2010

2011

*Source:BankofAmerica

FAIRHOLME

Ignore the crowd.

BACisPrudentlyAccumulatingCapital WellAboveRegulatoryMinimums
TIER 1COMMON EQUITY ($B)
$200 16% 14% $150 $200

TANGIBLE COMMON EQUITY ($B)*


16% 14% $150

9.86% $126.7 4.80%

12% 10%

6.64%

12% 10%

$100

8% 6% 4% 2%

$100

8%

2.93%
$50

$136.4

6% 4%

$50

$63.3

$50.7
$0 4Q08
Tangible Common Equity

2% 0% 4Q11
Tangible Common Equity Ratio

$0 4Q08
Tier 1 Common Equity

0% 4Q11
Tier 1 Common Equity Ratio

Ourcapitallevelsareamongthehighest theyveeverbeeninthisinstitutionshistory.
BrianMoynihan,PresidentandChiefExecutiveOfficer,BAC,August10,2011
*

RepresentsanonGAAPfinancialmeasure.

FAIRHOLME

Ignore the crowd.

CounttheCash
BACShortTermLiquidityhasdramaticallyimprovedsincethefinancialcrisis.
4Q2008
$250,000 $200,000 $150,000 BACShortTermLiquidity(inmillions) $100,000 $50,000 $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 Cash&TimeDeposits NetFederalFunds&Repos NetTradingAssets CommercialPaper&STBorrowings NetDerivativeAssets ExcessCash

1Q2009

4Q2011

FAIRHOLME

Ignore the crowd.

TrustButVerify
OurResearchhasbeenEnhancedbyUnprecedentedRegulatoryDisclosure

Youalsohavetorememberthatinourindustrywerenotalone, sowehaveregulatorsandothersthatlookoverourshoulders.
BrianMoynihan,PresidentandChiefExecutiveOfficer,BAC,August10,2011
FAIRHOLME

Ignore the crowd.

ComparedtoitsPeers, BACisExceptionallyCheap
2.0

Historical15yearPrice/BookAverageforKBWBankIndex=1.83
1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 WellsFargo
(MarketCap:$150+Billion)

BACPrice/Book =.29

J.P.Morgan
(MarketCap:$140+Billion)

Citigroup
(MarketCap:$80+Billion)

BankofAmerica
(MarketCap:$70+Billion)

5YearAveragePrice/Book

CurrentPrice/Book

MarketCapitalizationsasofJanuary30,2012.

FAIRHOLME

Ignore the crowd.

MarginofSafety:$7BuysYou$20+
Investingisallaboutwhatyougiveversuswhatyouget.*

GIVE =$7
FutureCash Flows

MarketCap:$70bn

In return for purchasing stock (above) at historic lows, an investor in BAC receives value (right) that far outweighs the cost. This provides downside protection as well as upside opportunity when the market returns to a weighing machine, BACs market cap will increase.

OwnersCapital:$200bn Reserves:$50bn

GET =$20+

FAIRHOLME

*BruceR.Berkowitz,MorningstarConference,June9,2011 MarketPricesasofJanuary30,2012.

Ignore the crowd.

Currentheadlinesremainscary[and]companystockpricesattimes becomeschizophrenic,butintheend,theyconsistently reverttoreasonableassessmentsofvalue.


BruceR.Berkowitz,LettertoClients,July2008

FAIRHOLME

Ignore the crowd.

MovingForward
Aspartofitsefforttogeneratelongtermshareholdergrowth,BACis continuingtoaggressivelyaddresslegacyCountrywidemortgageissues.

GlobalBanking &Markets LEGACY CONSUMER REAL ESTATE SERVICES

48,500DEDICATED EMPLOYEES

$2BILLION IN EXPENSES PER QUARTER

FAIRHOLME

Ignore the crowd.

MortgageBusinessTransformation
BACisfundamentallytransformingitsmortgagebusinesstoreducerisk, improveperformance,andeliminateinefficiencies.
FROM MORTGAGE MARKET SHARE DRIVEN MULTICHANNEL PRODUCTION ADDING MORTGAGE SERVICING RIGHTS (MSRS) REGULAR AND DEFAULT SERVICING
TOGETHER

TO INTEGRATED INTO CONSUMER FRANCHISE


38KHomeLoanreferralstoConsumerBankingin3Q11 162KConsumerBankingreferralstoHomeLoansin3Q11

DIRECT TO CONSUMER
ExitedWholesaleandCorrespondentchannels

REDUCING MSRS
Asof3Q11,completedsaleofservicingon150Kloans Additionalsalesexecutedin4Q11 ExitofCorrespondentchannelwillresultinaddinglessMSRsin thefuture

LEGACY ASSET SERVICING ESTABLISHED EXITING NONCORE ACTIVITIES (E.G.,BALBOA, REVERSE MORTGAGE,ETC.)
Ignore the crowd.

ANCILLARY BUSINESSES

FAIRHOLME

BuildingaStrongCushion
BACisconservativelymanagingitslegacymortgageexposuresbyincreasing chargeoffallowancesaswellasputbackandliabilityreserves.

ALLOWANCE FOR LOANS AND LEASES ($B) AND COVERAGE OF ANNUALIZED NET CHARGEOFFS
$50 2.4

REPRESENTATIONS AND WARRANTIES RESERVES ($B)*


$30

2.1 X
$40 2.0 $25

$30

1.6

$20

1.0 X $23.1

$33.8
1.2 $15

$15.9

$20

0.8 $10

$10

0.4

$5

$2.3
4Q 2008 4Q 2011

$0 4Q 2008 Allowance 4Q 2011 Allowance to Annualized Net Charge-offs

0.0 $0

*Representationsandwarrantiesreservesdonotincludelitigationaccrualsestablished.

FAIRHOLME

Ignore the crowd.

PowerfulFranchises
Withongoingreductionsinriskandexpenses,NewBACwillbepropelledbythe strongperformanceofitsprofitablefranchises.

DEPOSITS

CARD SERVICES

GLOBAL COMMERCIAL BANKING

GLOBAL WEALTH & GLOBAL BANKING & ConsumerRealEstateServicesMANAGEMENT INVESTMENT MARKETS


LegacyAssetServicing

CONSUMER REAL ESTATE SERVICES

FAIRHOLME

Ignore the crowd.

InSum
Its earnings power has been disguised by the intense provisioning for loan losses. But when the provisioning gets back to a normal level, youll start to see that incredible earnings power come down to the bottom line. And its as simple as that.

FAIRHOLME

Ignore the crowd.

Djvu?
Its earnings power has been disguised by the intense provisioning for loan losses. But when the provisioning gets back to a normal level, youll start to see that incredible earnings power come down to the bottom line. And its as simple as that.
BruceR.Berkowitz OutstandingInvestorDigest November25,1992

FAIRHOLME

Ignore the crowd.

BanksHaveBeenHereBefore
WiseinvestorsdonotpermitMr.Marketsdailyfluctuations toaffecttheirunderstandingoffundamentalvalue.
1,800% 1,600% 1,400%

CumulativeReturn

1,200% 1,000% 800% 600% 400% 200% %

StartedtoBuy WellsFargo

WellsFargo

S&P500

FAIRHOLME

Ignore the crowd.

StayingtheCourse
CourageofConviction
Our inclination remains to run from the popular and embrace the hated where prices tend to reflect such mistrustwe eventually get it right by seeing beyond temporary conditions and by avoiding diversification that leads to mediocrity.
BruceR.Berkowitz SemiAnnualReport May31,2011

FAIRHOLME

Ignore the crowd.

This presentation uses Bank of America as a case study to illustrate Fairholme Capital Managements investment strategy for the Fairholme Fund. In this presentation, we show Fairholme Fund shareholders why we Ignore the crowd with regard to our portfolio positions that are currently out of favor in the market. However, nothing in this presentation should be taken as a recommendation to anyone to buy, hold, or sell certain securities or any other investment mentioned herein. Our opinion of a companys prospects should not be considered a guarantee of future events. Investors are reminded that there can be no assurance that past performance will continue, and that a mutual funds current and future portfolio holdings always are subject to risk. As with all mutual funds, investing in the Fairholme Fund involves risk including potential loss of principal. Opinions expressed are those of the author and/or Fairholme Capital Management, L.L.C. and should not be considered a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. The Fairholme Funds holdings and sector weightings are subject to change. As of November 30, 2011, Bank of America securities comprised 5.5% of the Fairholme Funds total net assets. The Fairholme Funds portfolio holdings are generally disclosed as required by law or regulation on a quarterly basis through reports to shareholders or filings with the SEC within 60 days after quarter end. A complete list of the Fairholme Funds top ten holdings is available on our website at www.fairholmefunds.com. The Fairholme Fund is nondiversified, which means that it invests in a smaller number of securities when compared to more diversified funds. Therefore, the Fairholme Fund is exposed to greater individual security volatility than diversified funds. The Fairholme Fund can invest in foreign securities which may involve greater volatility and political, economic, and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. The Fairholme Fund may also invest in special situations to achieve its objectives. These strategies may involve greater risks than other fund strategies. Investments in debt securities typically decrease in value when interest rates rise. This risk is usually greater for longerterm debt securities. Lowerrated and nonrated securities present greater loss to principal than higherrated securities. Tier 1 Capital: a regulatory measure of a banks financial strength. It is composed of core capital, which is principally common stock and retained earnings. Tier 1 Common Equity Ratio: the measurement of a bank's core equity capital compared with its total riskweighted assets. This is the measure of a bank's financial strength. The Tier 1 common capital ratio excludes any preferred shares or noncontrolling interests when determining the calculation. Tier 1 RiskBased Capital Ratio: the ratio of Tier 1 capital to its Riskweighted assets. Riskweighted asset is a bank's assets or offbalance sheet exposures, weighted according to risk. The historical return shown for Wells Fargo is based on Closing Price of its Common Stock. The chart refers to the purchase and sale of Wells Fargo stock by Fairholme Funds portfolio manager while he was a portfolio manager for Shearson Lehman Brothers. Wells Fargo securities were not among the Fairholme Funds top ten holdings as of November 30, 2011, and were not held by Fund as of its last shareholder report dated May 31, 2011. The Fairholme Funds investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses should be considered carefully before investing. The prospectus contains this and other important information about the Fairholme Fund, and may be obtained by calling shareholder services at (866) 2022263 or by visiting our website at www.fairholmefunds.com. Read it carefully before investing. Fairholme Distributors, Inc. (01/12)

FAIRHOLME

Ignore the crowd.

Vous aimerez peut-être aussi