ABC News -Harris Survey

._. - - For Release:

----- Monday AM, March 10th, 1980

Vol. II No. 30 ISSN 0163-4846

FORD LEADS BOTH CARTER AND REAGAN)

ALTHOUGH STILL UNDECLARED CANDIDATE

By Louis Harris Former President Gerald Ford is the first choice of Republican and independent voters to head the GOP ticket--even though he has not yet declared himself a candidate for the Republican nomination. Ford also leads President Carter among the general electorate. A special ABC News - Harris Survey shows that a total of 33 percent of all Republicans and independents prefer Ford, compared with 27 percent for Ronald Reagan, 15 percent for John Anderson, and 14 percent for George Bush. Other GOP candidates trail far behind. Among just Republicans, Ford is also ahead--with 36 percent, followed by Reagan at 32 percent, Bush at 12 percent, and Anderson at 10 percent. When pitted against President Carter among a cross section of 1,498 likely voters, Ford runs ahead by a 54-44 percent margin. By contrast, among the same voters, Reagan trails Carter by 58-40 percent. Back in late November, at the start of the Iranian hostage crisis, Carter was ahead of Ford by 50-47 percent. Back then, Carter led Reagan by 53-44 percent. However, just a month ago, Carter led Reagan by a wider 64-32 percent, indicating some slippage in the President's strength over the past 30 days. These results bear out what Gerald Ford has claimed: that the polls would show him to be much more popular with the voters than Ronald Reagan. Significantly, he is ahead among just Republican voters, Republicans and independents, and in the contest with Carter he is running 14 points better than Reagan. The latest ABC News - Harris Survey, conducted by telephone nationwide among 1,498 voters, was conducted from March 5th throuah 8th. Among Republican and independent voters, Ford is ahead of Reagan in the East and the Midwest by substantial margins. However, Reagan edges the former President by one point in the South and is well ahead in the West. When analyzed by political philosophy, Ford leads Reagan among Republican and independent moderates, but runs 6 points behind Reagan among conservatives. By age, Ford is ahead among those under 50, but Reagan comes up ahead among older voters. Among independents, Ford holds an 8 point lead over Reagan, 29 to 21 percent, but Representative John Anderson runs a close third at 20 percent. A similar pattern is evident among the college educated: Ford leads Reagan by 27 to 22 percent, but Anderson is close on their heels as the preferred choice of 21 percent. With Ford not in the race, Reagan leads the GOP field with 39 percent, followed by Bush at 23 percent, and Anderson with 19 percent. The other Republican aspirants trail way behind. In just a three way contest, Reagan leads with 44 percent, with Bush second at 26 percent and Anderson at 22 percent. However, among independents, Reagan is ahead by 36 percent, Anderson second with 27 percent and Bush with 26 percent. It is evident that Anderson's support holds up better with Ford in the contest than is the case with Bush. Ford would hurt Bush's chances of winning the nomination most of all. In the test runs among the total electorate, Reagan runs behind Carter in every region of the country. By contrast, Ford is ahead of Carter in every region, except the South, where the two are in a 49-49 percent dead heat.

(over)

-2

One of the most dramatic differences between Ford and Reagan emerges in the nation's suburbs, the modern backbone of the Republican party. Ford is ahead of Carter in the suburbs by 60-38 percent. By contrast, Reagan is behind Carter there by 57-40 percent. Similarly, among the college educated, Reagan is behind Carter by 56-41 percent, but Ford leads among this key, swing vote by 58-41 percent. Even among conservatives,Reagan's most natural political base, the former California governor is ahead of Carter by only a narrow 51-47 percent. By contrast, Ford runs ahead of Carter among conservatives by 60-38 percent. It must be pointed out, of course, that this latest ABC News - Harris Survey is measuring voter reaction to a Gerald Ford who has not yet come into the race as an official candidate. By and large, what the survey measures is the memory of Ford, compared with Reagan and Carter who are declared candidates and have been the subject of controversial scrutiny by the voters and the media. In 1976, Ford lost two out of three debates with Jimmy Carter. In that election, Ford was widely criticized for his pardon of Richard Nixon. It remains to be seen how well Ford will hold up when asked about the many issues which are now quite different from the last time he was in the White House. His relative lack of articulate qualities in his delivery could hurt him in a debate against a candidate such as Anderson. However, at least as Gerald Ford contemplates coming into the race, he would start with a clear majority of the voters who would hope he would make it back to the White House. TAB L E S The latest ABC News - Harris Survey asked a cross section of 1,498 likely voters nationwide between March 5th and 8th: "Suppose for President it was between former Governor Ronald Reagan for the ReDublicans and President Jimmy Carter for the Democrats, if you had to choose right now, would you vote for Reagan or Carter?" PREFERENCE FOR REAGAN OR CARTER IN 1980 Reagan
% --%-

Carter 58 64 53

Not sure
%

March

1980

40
32

Februdry Late November 1979 March 1980 DEMOGRAPHICS Suburbs College Educated Conservatives

4
3

44

40 41 51

57 56 47

3 3 2

The cross section of voters was also asked: "Suppose for President it was between former President Gerald Ford for the Republicans and President JimMy Carter for the Democrats. If you had to decide right now, would you vote for Carter or for Ford?" PREFERENCE FOR FORD OR CARTER IN 1980
--%

Ford 54

Carter
%

Not sure
%

March

1980

44

February Late November 1979 X not asked TABLE CONTINUED

x
47

x
50

x
3

-3

PREFERENCE FOR FORD OR CARTER IN 1980 CONT'D. Ford March 1980 DEMOGRAPHICS Suburbs College Educated Conservatives 60 58 60 38 41 38
2 -%

Carter
%

Not sure
%

1
2

The ABC News - Harris Survey also asked a national cross section of 824
Republican and independent voters:
"For the Republican nomination for president, if you had to choose, which one of these candidates would be your first choice?" FIRST CHOICE FOR REPUBLICAN NOMINATION (WITH FORD) March 1980 REPUBLICANS ONLY TOTAL
%
%

November 1979 TOTAL

%

Ford Reagan Anderson Bush Connally Crane Dole Other None Not sure

36 32 10 12 3 1 1

33
27

25 30 2 6 10 1 1 12 2
11

15 14 4 2 1

*
2 3

*
1 3

FIRST CHOICE FOR REPUBLICAN NOMINATION (WITHOUT FORD) March 1980 REPUBLICANS ONLY TOTAL
%

November 1979 TOTAL

%

Reagan Bush Anderson Connally Crane Dole Other None Not sure (c) 1980 The Chicago Tribune World Rights Reserved Chicago Tribune-N.Y. News Syndicate, Inc. 220 East 42nd Street, New York, NY 10017 802108

46 22 14 7 2 3 X 3 3

39 23 19 7 2 2
X

39 8 3 14 1 3 16 3 13

4 4