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BHUTAN
BANGLADESH 16.11.07
INDIA
Dhaka
Barisal
15.11.07
Khulna
Bhola
INDIA Mongla
Barguna
Sundarban
Myanmar
PRODIPAN
Shaheb Bari Road
Moheswarpasha, Khulna-9203, Bangladesh
Email: ppnh@khulna.bangla.net/ mehdi.azam@yahoo.com
Editorial Sidr-2007: Hardiest Hit of
Climate Change !
The years of 1970, 1991 and 2007
will be memorized in history for
high-shocking cyclonic storms in the Tropical Cyclones & Global Climate Change
Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh and West
Bengal of India. Due to geographical Over the last 50 years the intensity and average wind
location, Bangladesh has to face a speed of cyclones has changed (Table 1; Table 2). In
host of natural calamities almost Bangladesh, cyclones originate in the Bay of Bengal,
every year, especially in the coastal proceeds to the coast, hit the coast and gradually turn into
areas occurring loss of valuable lives weak land depression. But recently the cyclones are
and assets. staying in the land for a longer time and keep on battering
the sea.
Statistics revealed that about 16%
cyclone, created in the Bay of It is general perception that different cyclonic storms and
Bengal, hit the coastal areas of tidal surges, including Sidr, were originated naturally.
Bangladesh. Following this trend Besides, natural factors, anthropogenic factors also were
there is a possibility of 1.12 cyclones responsible for such devastating phenomenon, like,
in a year to be occurred. In the last increasing sea surface temperature and ice-melting due to
30 years, nearly 900,000 people global warming. Thus it helps in formation of cyclone and
died by cyclones and six out of nine carries vast amount of to the coast when cyclone
depressions formed in the Bay of attacked. Ultimately the phenomenon increasing
Bengal normally cross the belt of frequency and intensity of cyclonic storm.
Bangladesh almost every year (Khan
and Sen, 2000). All of these severe
Table 1. Past 212 years recorded cyclones
cyclones took place during the end
of the year i.e. during October and Sl No. Duration No. of Cyclones
November. The repeating history of
01 1795-1845 3
misfortune came back again in last
02 1846-1896 3
November in the name of ‘cyclone
Sidr’. 03 1897-1947 13
04 1948-2007 52
This hand-out is trying to give a During 1795-2007 71
quick view on the Sidr and its
Source: BBS, 2002; Islam, 2005
immediate impact on coastal areas.
Advisor
Ferdausur Rahman
Editorial Panel
Mehdi Azam
Azmal-Al-Noor
Ripon Kumar Ghose
Sazzadur Rahman Alin
Published By
ALPCC Project, Prodipan
Why Bangladesh is Vulnerable: What Says Expert
Ali (1999) predicted that an increase in 2°C in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) increase in the probability of cyclone
formation from depression
Agrawala et al., (2003) commented that the possibility to increase in peak intensities of cyclone may be 5-10% higher
and storm surge increase 20-30% in Bangladesh than current situation
Increased SST above 26ºC will cause an increase in the formation of low pressure and depressions in sea
Theoretical considerations shows that a 1°C rise in SST will increase the cyclone intensity by 4%, 2°C rise by 10%
and 4°C rise by 22% (Emanuel, 1987)
A model analysis by Ali (1996) shows that storm surge heights will increase by 21% and 47% for a corresponding rise
in SST by 2°C and 4°C respectively for a particular location along the N-E coast of Bangladesh. The corresponding
increase in inland penetration of surges will increase respectively by 13% and 31% (Ali, 2000)
SIDR attacked during low tide, but considering its intensity if it was attacked during high tide condition then storm surge
and severity of damages could be doubled.
An increase in cyclone intensity will cause an increase in storm surge heights and the horizontal extent of flooding.
However, storm surge height of SIDR was comparatively low (10-15 ft) considering its intensity because it was
attacked during low tide (Table 2). Expert seems that, if it was happened in high tide, then storm surge height and
severity of damages could be more than doubled.
Conclusion
It is clear that Bangladesh has to face the crucial effects (cyclones, tidal surges, sea level rise etc.) of current trends of
climate change. But Bangladesh or even any country in the world cannot overcome this problem overnight. So, global
communities are paying their attention to minimize the impacts of climate change and one of its ultimate results, cyclone &
tidal surge. The output to minimize the impacts is either mitigation or adaptation. In that context, Bangladesh needs to
consider both mitigation and adaptation options, even though the country has very limited scope for mitigation. This is
because mitigation involves global efforts to execute and adaptation is more local. So, effective adaptation policies and
mitigation measures should be developed and implemented to minimize climate change impacts on Bangladesh. If
Bangladesh fails to implement the adaptation measures carefully, the people in coastal areas will loss their means of
subsistence within a short period of 100 years and thus will keep their future generations in danger. Therefore,
Bangladesh government needs to pay keen attention to the issue and should develop strategy to minimize the impacts of
climate change through developing adaptive mechanisms and thus safe its citizen.
References
Ali, A. (2000) “Vulnerability of Bangladesh Coastal Region to Climate Change with Adaptation Options”, Space Research and Remote Sensing
Organization, Ministry of Defense, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh.
Ali, A. (1996 “Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Climate Change and Sea Level Rise through Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surges”, Water, Air and Soil
Pollution, Vol. 94d, pp.171-179.
BBS (2002) “Statistical Yearbook 2002”, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Planning, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh.
EU (1998) “Draft Final Report on Cyclone Shelter Preparatory Study (CPSP) Stage I: Feasibility Study”, Vol. 3, European commission.
Emanuel, K.A. (1987) “The Dependence of Hurricane Intensity”, Nature, Vol. 329, pp. 483-485.
ILO (2008) “Preliminary Assessment of the Impact of Cyclone SIDR on Decent Employment and Proposed Recovery Strategy” International Labour
Office in Bangladesh, pp.61.
Islam, R. (2005) “Where Land Meets the Sea”, University Press Limited, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Khan, N.A. and Sen, S. (2000) “Of Popular Wisdom: Indigenous Knowledge and Practices in Bangladesh. BARCIK, pp. 147-149.
MoFDM (2007) “ Draft National Plan for Disaster Management 2007-2015”, Ministry of Food and Disaster Management, Government of the People’s
Republic of Bangladesh. pp. 108.
UNDP (2008) “Response & Action Plan Report of Cyclone SIDR 2007” United Nations Development Programme, Bangladesh.
Case Study
Abu Taher
of Southkhali, Sharonkhola in Bagerhat
lost his
brother, sister, mother &
grand mother
by the Sidr 2007
Abu Taher of 5 years, was running together with his parents and other members of the
family towards the nearest cyclone shelter after hearing the warning earlier at noon. But
they saw the shelter was locked and there was no man belonging the key to open the
shelter. So they had to back to their home.
Realizing the severity of the storm, at 7.30 pm they tried second time to enter in to the
cyclone shelter but due to strong wind they were unable to move. In the mean time, the
devastation of cyclone started; trees, houses were breaking down with strong wind. “At
9.30 pm tidal flash was approaching in to our village. Around 10-12 people including all
of my 7 family members climbed on bamboo made Matcha of my house. Within an hour
my house was washed away by the tidal surge which separated my family members from
each other” - Alamgir Hossain, the father of Abu Taher explained his horrible
experience of the SIDR night.
Alamgir Hossain was of 42 years age, by profession he was a fisherman. He was the
resident of Dashkin Southkhali, ward no 10 of Sharonkhola, Bagerhat. He could save
himself by catching a branch of a tree. “My little child Abu Taher was frightened and
puzzled with the situation. I discovered him on the plinth of the broken house next
morning. The little Taher was alive but did not explain what happened to him”. By the
SIDR, Taher lost his elder brother, elder sister, mother and grand mother. Alamgir
Hossain could rescue one of his daughters after seven days; she was alive. All the dead
bodies were buried in the plinth of his own house. His house was completely washed
away by the SIDR. By the US Army he got a temporary house (tent) where he was living
with his son and daughter. The tent was just at the side of the graveyard.
Table 3. Official Damage Report by Cyclone Sidr 2007
Source: Ministry of Food and Disaster Management (MoFDM) Relief Control Cell (RCC); Date: December 31, 2007