GIA End of Year Survey: I.

Global Barometer of Hope and Despair, 2011

Since 1977, GIA carries out an annual survey to measure the world's expectations in the new year. In 2011, 50 countries participated, including the world's youngest nation, South Sudan; more than 52,000 respondents were interviewed. Infinite Insight carried out the survey in Kenya and South Sudan. d 2011 has been a turbulent year in most parts of the world: global economic crisis, several countries being on the brink of bankruptcy the Arab Spring; bankruptcy; continued NATO operations in Afghanistan; the death of Osama bin Laden and the tsunami with consecutive nuclear accident in Japan... Globally, pessimists now outnumber optimists: the net score contracted from +2% in 2010 to -2% in 2011; i.e. while 3 % 32% of the world's population expect 2011 to be a year of economic prosperity, 34% anticipate an economic downturn. Nigerians emerge as the most optimistic, with a positive net score of 80%; the French, with a negative net score of 80%, the most pessimistic. Focus on Africa: Nigerians over the years have proven themselves indefatigable optimists again and again, even in the face of adversity; it comes as no surprise that, once more, Nigerians display this remarkable show of confidence, despite ethnic and religious strife and terrorist attacks (Boko Haram) being on the rise. Understandably, the world's youngest country, South Sudan, is still elated over its independence: opportunities and prospects still seem to beckon even : though the details of economic recovery and statehood have yet to be worked out. The picture could not be more divergent when comparing two countries that featured prominently in the Arab Spring: Tunisians, having expelled their dictator and having conducted orderly general elections, now feel confident about their country's economic prospects as well as their personal wellbeing. Egyptians, on the other hand, experience continued unre and a doubtful unrest future with the future role of the country's military undecided; hence, Egyptians are pessimistic both about the country's economic prospects and their personal wellbeing. With the elections coming up in 2012 (the date as yet being undecided), the country's currency on a rollercoaster ride soaring inflation and the country's ride, military action in Somalia, Kenyans do not feel confident about the economy , and only mildly hopeful about their personal prospects in the coming year. South Africa, a member of the BRICS economies, would be the most affected African country by the global economic crisis; hence, South African Africans take a dim view of the economy, although they try to be confident about their personal situation.

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Focus on Kenya & South Sudan: With Kenya being involved in military action against Al Shabaab in Somalia, Kenyans worry about reprisal terrorist attacks and the effects this will have on the economy in general and the tourism industry in particular. Bordering on Somalia and harbouring the world's largest refugee camp, Dadaab, North Eastern province would be the first to feel the backlash of terrorist reprisals. Coast province is most dependent on tourism; hence, the mood is bleakest. In contrast, Nyanza, Central and Eastern provinces feel much more upbeat about their economic prospects in the new year. In South Sudan, the most optimistic regions are the areas around Malakal and Yambio; while uncertainty is highest in Rumbek. South Sudan, of course, remains one of the least developed countries in Africa; whether the optimism of its citizens is justified will largely depend on whether the new government will be able to contain factional infighting and corruption, integrate migrants from the north and reach a lasting agreement with Khartoum on sharing oil revenues. Impact of the GIA Global Barometer of Hope and Despair Despair: Jean-Marc Leger, President of WIN/GIA, summarised the findings of the 34th End of Year Survey as follows: "The survey findings show that globally the glass is half full on hopes about economic upturn. Nearly as many express hope about economy in 2012 as those who express despair. But the regional picture is quite different. Europeans are overwhelmingly gloomy, Americans are less so, while both Asia and Africa are hopeful about Americans economic prospects in 2012. In a world which is no longer Euro Euro-American centric, global polls serve a useful service by placing such distinctions in their right perspective. perspective."
(Source: Global WIN/GIA press release)

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GIA End of Year Survey: II. Global Barometer of Happiness, 2011

While the world may be worried about economic prospects in the coming year, doom and gloom do not weigh down personal happiness: Net Hope stands at -2%, Net Happiness with ones life 2%, at +40%. Even the French, who expect the worst of the economy (Net Hope: 80%), still come in at global average when asked about their happiness. In fact, only Romania recorded a negative net score while Georgia score, and Egypt came in with neutral net scores scores. Focus on Africa: Five out of the eight African countries in the sample come in with higher Net Happiness Scores than the global average: Nigeria, in line with its high Net Hope Score, leads the pack again with 83%, followed by Ghana with 72% wed Egypt, on the other hand, achieves a balance between happiness and unhappiness; its net score is zero

Between these extremes, more than half of the populations of all but one of the remaining countries claim to be happy; in Kenya, j just 47% express happiness with their lives lives.

The reasons for Kenyans unhappiness are not altogether clear and neither are the reasons for Nigerians confidence Less than half of Kenyans claim to be happy; however, while people seem to be happy and content with their lives in Central, Nyanza and Rift Valley provinces, they appear depressed in Coast Coast. In contrast, in South Sudan, 6 out of 10 feel happy making Kenyans look positively grim and morose in comparison.

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Net Happiness by Demographics:

The GIA End of Year Survey does not define happiness; in fact, it raises questions more than it answers them them. The survey identifies a handful demographic parameters, that may promote or impede happiness: globally, these seem to be religious belief and belonging to the upper echelons of society society. In contrast to the global population, however, Africans of the high income classes are less happy than members of the middle income classes; this is especially pronounced in Kenya Kenya. Although in line with global and African trends, education and employment status have an especially strong impact on happiness in Kenya and comparatively little impact in Nigeria possibly, Kenyans feel less comfortable hustling in the informal sector than Nigerians do do. Generally, religious belief seems to have positive effects on happiness; in Kenya, however, Muslims are particularly unhappy; whereas they are exuberant in Nigeria Nigeria.

Note on Methodology: The global barometer of hope and despair is an annual tradition initiated under the chairmanship of Dr. George Gallup in 1977 and is conducted every year since then. This year it was carried out by associates of WIN WIN-Gallup International in 58 countries around the world. A total of 52,287 persons were interviewed globally. In each country a national probability sample of around 1000 men and women was interviewed either face to face, via telephone or online. Field work was conducted during November December 2011. In general the error margin for surveys of this kind is ield November-December 3-5% at 95% confidence level. 5%

Disclaimer: Gallup International Association or its members are not related to Gallup Inc., headquartered in Washington D.C which is no longer a member of Gallup International Association. Gallup International Association does not accept responsibil responsibility for opinion polling other than its own. We require that our surveys be credited fully as Gallup International (not Gallup or Gallup Poll). For further details see website: www.Gallup www.Gallup-international.com

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