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NOVEMBER 30, 2010

OIL SANDS / OIL & GAS PRODUCERS Justin Bouchard, P.Eng, CFA
justin.bouchard@raymondjames.ca 403.509.0523

Athabasca Oil Sands Corp.


ATH-TSX

Christopher Cox
christopher.cox@raymondjames.ca 403.509.0562

RATING & TARGET

Announces accelerated development plan


Event Monday(November29th)beforemarket,Athabascaannouncedanupdatetoits developmentplansonitsHangingstoneandDoverWestproperties. Action We reiterate our $17.00 target price and OUTPERFORM rating. We believe investorsarepayinglittleforthecompanyslargeundevelopedresourcebase. Analysis At Hangingstone, the company is now planning on submitting a regulatory applicationin2H11fora12,000bbl/dSAGDproject.Firststeamfromthisproject couldbeasearlyas2013.FuturedevelopmentfromHangingstonecouldleadto gross production of 70,000 bbl/d, with the second phase likely to be a 25,000 bbl/d project coming onstream as early as 2016. The company also indicated that it had acquired the remaining 25% interest in the Hangingstone acreage acquiredthroughtheExcelsioracquisition. AtDoverWest,thecompanywillalsobesubmittingaregulatoryapplicationin 2H11 for a12,000 bbl/dSAGD projectin the clastics this isinaddition to the two pilot projects previously announced in the Leduc carbonates. First steam fromtheprojectcouldcomeasearlyas2014. Inadditiontothesereviseddevelopmentplans,thecompanyalsoannouncedan aggressive exploration program for this winter. The company will employ 14 drilling rigs on its Birch, Grosmont, Hangingstone and Dover West properties, drilling~140coreholes,inadditiontoacquiringsome2Dand3Dseismic.Given the large amount of unexplored acreage on Birch, and the encouraging results todate, we expect a significant portion of this winters drilling program to be focusedonthatlease. We view this release as a positive for the stock as one of the overhangs has always been that first production from the nonJV lands wouldnt have been until2016orlaternotidealiftheput/callontheJVlandsweretobeexercised. Whilethecompanyhasalottoworkon,withanetcashpositionof$1,459mln and potentially another $2,000 mln from the exercise of the put/call on the JV lands, the company is in a strong position financially to move ahead with this accelerayeddevelopmentplan. Valuation Our$17.00targetpriceisbasedonourRiskAdjustedNAVof$17.50pershare. PublishedbyRaymondJamesLtd.,aCanadianinvestmentdealer. PleaseseeendofINsightforimportantdisclosures.www.raymondjames.ca

RATING
Target Price (6-12 mths) Closing Price Total Return to Target

OUTPERFORM 2 =
$17.00 = $12.82 33% 4956 (1361) 3595 387 $9.89 $18.11

MARKET DATA
Market Capitalization ($mln) Current Net Debt ($mln) Enterprise Value ($mln) Shares Outstanding (mln, f.d.) Avg Daily Dollar Volume (3mo, mln) 52 Week Range

KEY FINANCIAL METRICS


FY-Dec 31 CFPS (C$) P/CFPS NAVPS P/NAV Yield (%) 2009A n/a n/a 2010E n/a n/a $17.50 0.73 0% $76.36 $4.54 $0.97 0 0 0 0 n/a na 2011E n/a n/a

WTI (US$/bbl) $61.80 HHub (US$/mmbtu) $4.15 Exchng Rate (US$/C$) $0.85 Production Conv.Oil & NGL (bbl/d) 0 Nat. Gas (mmcf/d) 0 Oil Sands (bbl/d) 0 Total (boe/d) 0 EBITDA ($mln) n/a Net Debt/Trailing CF na

$80.00 $4.25 $0.97 0 0 0 0 n/a na

* All figures in C$ unless otherwise specified

COMPANY DESCRIPTION
Athabasca Oil Sands is a pure-play oil sands company w ith a 40% interest in tw o leases w ith PetroChina, along w ith interests in 4 other key leases. The company holds approximately 1.6 mln net acres of oil sands acreage, much of w hich is still unexplored. Athabasca has exposure to both clastic and carbonate bitumen bearing formations.

Publishing will insert chart here

All figures in C$, unless otherwise noted. Sources: Raymond James Ltd.,ThomsonOne, CapIQ

RJ INsight Page 2 of 2

Risks Someofthespecificriskfactorsthatpertaintotheprojectedsixtotwelvemonth stockpricetargetforAthabascaOilSandsCorp.include: 1.MajorassetriskWhenAthabascadecidestogoaheadwiththedevelopment ofanyofitspotentialoilsandsprojects,Athabascawillbecommittingtoamajor investment.Shouldtheeconomicsoftheprojectdeteriorateforwhateverreason, thecompanysinvestmentthereinmaybeimpairedanditsfuturemaybeatrisk; 2. Operational risks including asset reliability risks at oil sands projects in northern Alberta and reservoir performance risks for insitu projects in particular; 3. Project execution risks Athabascas current and future growth is entirely exposedtooilsandsprojectsinearlystagesofdevelopment,withinherentrisks such as cost overruns due to the changes in availability and costs of materials, equipmentandqualifiedpersonnel; 4. Marketing risks There are various marketing risks related to bitumen, including disruptions in supply and market accessibility; commodity price volatilityandcreditrisk;andvolatilityofdownstreammargins; 5.RegulatoryrisksThedevelopmentofanyofAthabascasfutureprojectsare dependent on Athabasca and its partners receiving the necessary regulatory approvals. A failure to obtain these approvals on a timely basis or with acceptable terms and conditions could result in delays, abandonment or restructuring of the project and increased costs, all of which could have a materialadverseeffectonAthabasca; 6. Environmental risks including costs of new equipment and associated constructioncostsformaintainingenvironmentalintegrity; 7. Risks related to commodity prices, exchange rates, interest rates, political factors,governmentregulationandgeneraleconomicconditions.

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AthabascaOilSandsCorp.

ATH

TSX

1a,1b,1e
RATING & TARGET CHANGES Date Price Rating May-31-10 $10.25 2

ATHABASCA OIL SANDS CORP. | ATH-TSX


$18.00 $16.00 $14.00 $12.00 $10.00 $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 $0.00
pr -1 0 pr -1 0 M ay -1 0 M ay -1 0 Ju n10 Ju n10 Ju l-1 0 Ju l-1 0 Ju l-1 0 A ug -1 0 A ug -1 0 Se p10 Se p10 O ct -1 0 O ct -1 0 N ov -1 0 N ov -1 0

Target $17.00

Close

Target

Rating

1-STRONG BUY 2-OUTPERFORM 3-MARKET PERFORM 4-UNDERPERFORM 0-UNDER REVIEW

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