CLIMATE CHANGE AND OCEAN: FROM BALI & MANADO TO COPENHAGEN

Indonesia is going through a main player on environmental events after the last international event on United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Bali, December 2007 which produce Bali Roadmap. Nowadays, Indonesia is the nest of international event on environment issues is host of the World Ocean Conference (WOC) in Manado, May 11-15. The World Ocean Conference bring together ministers, high-level government officials and representatives from international organizations from around the world (121 countries) to focus on the implications of climate change for the worlds oceans and coastal communities, the role of the oceans in climate change phenomena, and the need for mitigation and adaptation measures to address climate change. At the same time, WOC is the host of Coral Triangle Initiative (CTI) Summit which will be attended by six head of states: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippine, Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, and East Timor. CTI Summit also attended by its partners is United States and Australia, as well as NGOs consortium. The Global Forum Working Group on Climate, Oceans, and Security at the 4th Global Conference on Oceans, Coasts, and Islands, April 7-11, 2008, Hanoi, Vietnam in its Policy Brief focused on the critical role that oceans play in regulating the global climate and moderating weather systems around the world. Changes in climate can have a profound impact on the functioning of ocean, coastal and island ecosystems. In particular, the following impacts are already being seen or can be anticipated. A few facts about the oceans: cover 70% of the surface of the Earth; have 1,100 times the heat capacity of the atmosphere (99.9% of the heat capacity of the Earth's fluids); contain 90,000 times as much water as the atmosphere (97% of the free water on the planet); and receive 78% of global precipitation. More than one third of the worlds population live in coastal areas and small islands that make up just over 4% of Earths total land area. Fisheries and fish products provide direct employment to 38 million people. Coastal tourism is one of the fastest growing sectors of global tourism and provides employment for many people and generates local incomes. More than a billion people rely on fish as their main or sole source of animal protein, especially in the coastal zone of developing countries. Fisheries and fish products provide direct employment to nearly 38 million people. The global economic costs related to pollution of coastal waters are $16 billion annually, much of which is due to human health impacts. Spiritual and cultural values are as important as other services for many local communities. Coastal and marine ecosystems provide a wide range of services to human beings. These include provisioning services such as supply of food, fuel wood, energy resources, natural products, and bioprospecting; regulating services, such as shoreline stabilization, flood prevention, storm protection, climate regulation, hydrological services, nutrient regulation, carbon sequestration, detoxification of polluted waters, and waste disposal; cultural and amenity services such as culture, tourism, and recreation; and supporting services such as habitat provision, nutrient cycling, primary productivity, and soil formation. These services are of high value not only to local communities living in the coastal zone (especially in developing countries) but also to national economies and global trade Marine and coastal ecosystems are also an important source of economic benefits, with capture fisheries alone worth approximately $81 billion in 2000; aquaculture $57 billion in 2000; offshore gas and oil $132 billion in 1995; marine tourism, much of it in the coast, $161 billion in 1995; and trade and shipping $155 billion in 1995. Much of this value comes from the overexploitation of marine and coastal ecosystems. However, the fast growing of carbon dioxide (mainly from burning coal, oil, and natural gas) and other human-induced (anthropogenic) since industrial revolution have doubled of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to the atmosphere. Before the Industrial Revolution, natural levels of CO 2 in the atmosphere

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were around 280 parts per million (ppm). Today we are seeing levels that are about 30% higher around 380 ppm and those levels are increasing faster and faster. We now know that this increase in CO2 has contributed to the warming we have seen in the oceans and in air temperatures worldwide. During the 20th century, this has corresponded to an average increase in ocean temperature increase around 0,6 Celsius. Climate models estimate that the global average temperature will rise about 1.4 - 5.8 Celsius over the next 100 years. Climate Change Impacts to Ocean and Coastal The scientists revealed that the impact increasing of GHG has growing global warming: melting of small glaciers and the melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Roughly one-third of the CO2 added to the atmosphere each year is absorbed by the ocean, where it reacts with seawater to form carbonic acid. This process is changing the chemistry of the ocean, making the waters more acidic. The average pH of the global ocean has already dropped from around 8.2 to 8.1; this process is commonly referred to as ocean acidification. The main questions about the CO2-driven acidification process concern the rate and distribution of the chemical changes resulting from increased CO2 absorption into the oceans. Though uncertainties remain, there are already reasonably accurate estimates of the penetration of anthropogenic CO2 into the ocean. 2 Because the processes by which the ocean buffers the CO input have time-scales ranging from decades to millennia, a rapid reversal of this process is unlikely even with immediate and radical cuts in anthropogenic CO2 emissions. As the ocean takes up CO from the atmosphere, water becomes more acidic and the concentration of carbonate ions in the water decreases. The term ocean acidification refers to the fact that the CO2 forms a weak acid (carbonic acid) in water, making the ocean more acidic. The basic chemistry is as follows: the ocean is a weakly-alkaline solution (with a pH of ~ 8.1), but this extra CO2 changes the carbonate chemistry of the surface ocean and drives the ocean pH lower, meaning that the ocean is becoming more acidic (less alkaline). Corals require these carbonate ions to form their calcium carbonate skeletons. As ocean acidification continues, some coral reefs may no longer be able to grow fast enough to keep up with the natural forces that break them down. There is evidence from the Great Barrier Reef in Australia that coral growth rates have already decreased by 15% in the last 15 years. The skeletons that the corals are currently building also may be weaker, making them more vulnerable to erosion, storm damage and predators. There is still a great deal to be learned about ocean acidification. The rise temperatures that corals normally see can cause them to bleach. If bleaching continues for a month or more, the corals can starve and die. Even if the corals do survive, this stress increases their susceptibility to disease and reduces their ability to reproduce normally for years. Coral reefs are vulnerable due to coral bleaching (which sometimes causes coral mortality) and the spread of pathogens leading to the spread of coral diseases. A report suggested that global warming will reduce the worlds major coral reefs in exceedingly short time framesone estimate suggests that all current coral reefs will disappear by 2040 due to warming sea temperatures. The worldwide coral bleaching events of 199798 stimulated a number of socioeconomic evaluations of coral reefs in affected regions. For example, in the Maldives, coral bleaching led to an estimated loss in 199899 tourism-related revenues of US$0.53.0 million. Palau (an island in western Micronesia), where many reefs suffered at least 50% coral mortality in the 199798 bleaching event, experienced a 510% drop in tourism in the years following the event. Totally, the massive coral bleaching in 1998 is expected to result in an estimated long-term damage over 20 years of between $600 million and $8 billion with
2

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costs incurred through declines in tourism-generated income and employment, decreases in fish productivity, and loss of reefs functioning as a protective barrier. Recent risk analysis of coral reef, according to IPCC report, suggests that between 24% and 30% of the reefs in Asia are likely to be lost during the next 10 years and 30 years, respectively (14% and 18% for global), unless the stresses are removed and relatively large areas are protected. In other words, the loss of reefs in Asia may be as high as 88% (59% for global) in the next 30 years under IPCCs emission scenario. In the same time the unmanaged coastal development, marine pollution, over-exploitation (overfishing) and destructive fishing, and sediment and nutrients from inland provide a composite indicator of the potential risk to coral reef associated with human activity. According report on Marine and Coastal Ecosystems and Human Well Being (2006), all the worlds known tropical reef systems, 58% occur within 25 km of major urban centres having populations of 100,000 or more. In 1999, it was estimated that approximately 27% of the worlds known reefs had been badly degraded or destroyed in the last few decades. The coral reefs of the Caribbean Sea and portions of Southeast Asia have suffered the greatest rates of degradation and are expected to continue to be the most threatened. In the other impacts, according analysis of data from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) instrument on the OrbView-2 spacecraft, launched in 1997, revealed why a change in climate produces this effect on ocean plant life. When the climate warms, the temperature of the upper ocean also increases, making it "lighter" than the denser cold water beneath it. This results in a layering or "stratification" of ocean waters that creates an effective barrier between the surface layer and the nutrients below, cutting off phytoplankton's food supply. The shortage phytoplankton will impact to decrease fisheries availability and other ecosystems. Changes in ocean circulation, pH, and temperature are also likely to have additional effects on ocean biology that have not been quantified in these models and that may induce further CO2 feedbacks. These include changes in the community structure, net production, and bio-calcification. The effect of biocalcification is estimated to increase the ocean carbon sink by less than 2.5%. The quality and magnitude of biological changes will vary over space and time and is highly uncertain. While the combined inorganic and biological changes tend to reduce global uptake of anthropogenic carbon, the global net effect on carbon uptake of the ocean biological changes alone is unknown. Altered size and timing of phytoplankton blooms due to climate change can also potentially reduce fish production The decreasing fish stocks threaten food security in many coastal areas but have implications far beyond. Fisheries and tourism are major sources of employment, often in developing countries. Loss of habitat and degrading stocks could heavily impact on employment. Social, Economics and Security Impacts Hundreds of millions of people around the world depend on healthy coral reefs for food, and the socioeconomic impacts of reef declines are huge. As reef habitat is lost, there will be less fish and other food species. Climate impacts will make reefs less attractive to tourists and to divers in particular, thereby taking away valuable tourism-based income from small communities that depend on it. Nearly 40% of the people on Earth live within 100 km (60 mi) of the coastline, and many local and regional economies are based on goods and services provided by coastal ecosystems. Environmental degradation both on land (e.g., land clearing, agricultural and urban waste disposal) and in the ocean (unsustainable and destructive fishing practices) reduces the ability of reefs to support local economies. This economic loss can lead to even more destructive methods (e.g., blast fishing, cyanide fishing) to extract increasingly scarce resources from the reef and adjacent environments, just as the pressures of climate change may cause even more unsustainable land use. In turn, decreased socioeconomic value of

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the reef reduces the standard of living of the society that depends on it. Similarly, unmanaged increases in scuba diving and other tourist-related activities on reefs (including coastal development to support tourism) can lead to degradation of the very environment that attracts the tourists. Degraded reefs offer less protection from waves and storms, and this issue will become more important if sea levels continue to rise and storms become stronger. Without the protection of reefs, waves and storms will cause beaches to erode faster. This will cause an additional headache for the tourism industry, as well as for turtles and sea birds that rely on beach habitat for survival. Coasts are experiencing the adverse consequences of hazards related to climate and sea level (very high confidence scenario). Coasts are highly vulnerable to extreme events, such as storms, which impose substantial costs on coastal societies According IPCC fourth assessment report, annually about 120 million people are exposed to tropical cyclone hazards, which killed 250,000 people from 1980 to 2000. Coastal communities are at risk from natural (for example, hurricanes, cyclones, tsunamis, and floods) and human-induced disasters. Losses of habitats such as mangrove forests threaten the safety of people in 118 coastal countries. Mangroves and salt-marshes not only serve as a buffer from storm damage, but also provide areas for fish spawning and nursery areas for both inshore and offshore capture fisheries; they also absorb heavy metals and other toxic substances. Many of the worlds mangrove areas have become degraded due to population pressures, widespread habitat conversion, and pollution. For countries with available data (representing 54% of total current mangrove area) an estimated 35% of mangrove forests have disappeared in the last two decades at the rate of 2.1% per year, or 2,834 km2 per year, and mangroves have dramatically declined in nearly every country for which data have been compiled. In some countries, more than 80% of original mangrove cover has been lost due to deforestation. The leading human activities that contribute to mangrove loss are: 52% aquaculture (38% shrimp plus 14% fish), 26% forest use, and 11% freshwater diversion. Degradation of coastal ecosystems, especially wetlands and coral reefs, has serious implications for the well-being of societies dependent on the coastal ecosystems for goods and services. Increased flooding and the degradation of freshwater, fisheries and other resources could impact hundreds of millions of people, and socio-economic costs on coasts will escalate as a result of climate change. The impact of climate change on coasts is exacerbated by increasing human-induced pressures (very high confidence). Under the IPCC scenarios, the coastal population could grow from 1.2 billion people (in 1990) to 1.8 to 5.2 billion people by the 2080s, depending on assumptions about migration. Increasing numbers of people and assets at risk at the coast are subject to additional stresses due to land-use and hydrological changes in catchments, including dams that reduce sediment supply to the coast. Climate change therefore reinforces the desirability of managing coasts in an integrated manner. The rise of sea level is most vulnerable in Asias coastal mainly on people resettlement. Even under the st most conservative scenario, sea level will be about 40 cm higher than today by the end of 21 century and this is projected to increase the annual number of people flooded in coastal populations from 13 million to 94 million. Almost 60% of this increase will occur in South Asia (along coasts from Pakistan, through India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh to Burma), while about 20% will occur in South-East Asia, specifically from Thailand to Vietnam including Indonesia and the Philippines. In Indonesia the rise of sea level will submerge 2000 islands. The critical role of ocean in climate: first, anthropogenic (human causes) warming and sea level rise, which would continue for centuries due to the time scales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized. Second, according the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report that ocean warming, which may result in increased stratification and changed circulation patterns of ocean currents, decreased amounts of sea ice

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(since 1978 annual average Arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7% per decade), increased coral bleaching and mortality, pole-ward migrations of species and increased algal blooms and sea level rise (between 1961 and 2003, global average sea level rose at an annual rate of 1.8mmthe estimated global average sea level in the next century is 0.18 to 0.59 meters). Third, increases in coastal flooding and storm intensity. Fourth, potentially changing current patterns; and fifth, ocean acidification, which poses adverse effects on calcifying species such as corals, echinoderms, crustaceans, and mollusks as well as certain phytoplankton, and puts at risk the ecological functions of reefs in maintaining biodiversity and coastal protection. The security of coastal populations is at risk due to sea level rise, increased intensity and frequency of storms, increased scarcity of freshwater due to impacts of the greenhouse effect on the hydrological cycle, and the threat of large-scale climate change-induced population movements. In its IPCC report, amid growing global concern, called urgent attention to significant social impacts of climate change, and in particular the growing climate divide that exists between the developed and the developing world- that is to say, the impact of the damage acting as the catalyst for global climate change has been created by the developed world but its impacts will be felt most readily by the developing world. The countries of the industrialized "North" have 20% of the world's people but use about 80% of the world's resources. By global standards, they live extremely well. It's nice living the good life, but if everyone consumed as much as the North Americans and Western Europeans consume - and billions of people aspire to do just that - there probably would not be enough clean water and other vital natural resources to go around. Developing nations in Africa (which account for less than three percent of global carbon emissions) and Asia would be most affected and the developed wealthy nations far from the equator least affected. Asia will be particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, especially major population centers at low elevations including: Mumbai, India; Shanghai, China; Jakarta, Indonesia; Tokyo, Japan; and Dhaka, Bangladesh. The five most vulnerable countries with large populations are China, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Indonesia. The countries most threatened when looking at largest total land area are Russia, Canada, the United States, China, and Indonesia. The impact of climate change on developing nations, especially Small Island Developing States (SIDS), is significant and the implications of these potential effects range from changes in ocean chemistry and forecasted sea level rise to impacts on ecosystems, human health, and the displacement of coastal peoples. The need to address these issues in the oceans community is a vital first step in combating the potentially devastating effects of climate change with specific attention to the developing world and SIDS. Mitigation and Adaptation Articulate the central role of oceans in climate and emphasize that continued levels of ocean absorption of anthropogenic CO2 emissions to date lead to a level of ocean acidification that could produce irreversible impacts for millennia. Understand and develop policy responses to global ocean changes (ocean warming, ocean acidification, changes in currents, and changes in Polar Regions). Properly manage mitigation efforts that use the oceans (carbon capture and storage and ocean fertilization). Encourage alternative forms of energy using the oceans (wind power, tidal energy and power from waves and ocean currents).

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Encourage a wide range of adaptation efforts (soft, hard, floating) in the context of integrated ecosystembased management. Adaptation will depend heavily upon coastal systems that can adapt naturally to changes in sea level, wind, currents, and wave patterns. Address the climate divide and promote international commitments and funding mechanisms, including public/private partnerships, to respond to the differential effects of climate change on different regions and peoples. Understanding of the differential effects on different regions of the world, especially developing countries and SIDS, needs to be enhanced, including an estimation of costs in terms of adaptation financing. Innovative financial instruments and funding mechanisms are urgently needed to cover the costs of adaptation for those countries contributing proportionally little to climate change and lacking the resources to cope with its impacts. Industrialized nations need to provide assistance to developing countries, which also have to be compensated for reducing and avoiding deforestation (including the conversion of mangroves to aquaculture and other uses) in order to fulfill the goal of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 below the threshold level and therefore avoiding any major risks of severe climate change impacts. International law addressing climate change-induced population movements also needs to be developed. Enhance capacity building to address climate change effects. There is an urgent need for capacity building on mitigation and adaptation measures, especially on energy technology research, development, and demonstration and deployment of advanced technologies. This must be emphasized to high-level decision makers. Develop public outreach and education strategies. Stakeholders and the public need further encouragement to deepen their awareness of the relationship between climate change and the oceans, as well as the socioeconomic and security impacts climate change will have on their lives. Limitations Mechanism However, unlike as terrestrials issues on climate change offset the environmental costs of such mitigation measures are highly uncertain, their effects cannot be contained to a particular local. One of the main difficulties in estimating mitigation is the lag between the emission of fossil-fuel carbon and its uptake by the ocean and other reservoirs. Because the mechanisms in the ocean and the biosphere which will act to neutralize and sequester anthropogenic CO2 are far slower than the rate of input, the fossil fuel CO2 already added will remain in the atmosphere and continue to be absorbed by the ocean for millennia. In addition, as the pH restoration of the ocean is controlled by the dissolution of calcium carbonate sediments on the seabed, the recovery from ocean acidification also has a time scale of thousands of years. Ongoing research on the impacts of mitigation measures on marine ecosystems needs to be undertaken alongside the legal and international relations aspects. Clearly that without adaptation and mitigation, unsustainable use of marine ecosystem and coastal services can result in threatened food security for coastal communities due to overexploited fish stocks; loss of habitat that in turn causes damage to the thriving tourism industry; health impacts through increasing loads of waste released into coastal waters; and vulnerability of coastal communities to natural and human-induced disasters. Ocean and coastal leaders are at the front line of climate change effects, and are in a unique position to address these effects. They can also lend a moral voice to the climate negotiations, especially emphasizing the need to address global equity and climate divide issues, and in defining a clear vision and call to action. The climate issues that ocean and coastal leaders around the world will need to face will ineradicably change the nature of coastal and ocean management, introducing increased uncertainty, the need to incorporate climate change planning into all existing management processes, the need to

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develop and apply new tools related to vulnerability assessment, and the need to make difficult choices in what in many cases will be no-win situations involving significant adverse impacts to vulnerable ecosystems and communities. Policy responses would benefit from addressing a range of uncertainties, including the understanding of the benefits and costs of marine protected areas and the outcomes for ecosystem conditions of integrated coastal management and integrated coastal zone management. Improved knowledge would enable better-defined trade-offs. Policies are currently weak or widely lacking, particularly in areas such as the impacts from agriculture in marine and coastal areas; addressing new and emerging issues (for example, offshore wind farms); compliance relating to high-seas initiatives and agreements; and genetic resources. Existing policy and legislation often still lack consistent implementation and enforcement because funding, political will, and human resources are scarce. The WOC will produce Manado Ocean Declaration, a non-binding but is expected to form the basis for negotiations at the Conference of the Parties (COP 15) UNFCCC, in Copenhagen, December 2009. Four further sessions will be held prior to Copenhagen: 1-12 June in Bonn; 10-14 August in Bonn (informal meeting); 28 September-9 October in Bangkok and 2-6 November (location to be confirmed.). Although with limitations of the goals attainment on climate change negotiations on the next round of the UNFCCC, the opportunities for regional and international cooperation is key chance for tackling climate change with all stakeholders role. Exchange of data and information, capacity building, technology transfer, research and sustainable funding are essential. Good luck to conference. #

The writer is consultant of Coral Reef Rehabilitation and Management Program (COREMAP II), partnership between Ministry of Marine & Fisheries and Asian Development Bank (ADB). This opinion is individual expression.

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