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Advertising and Marketing Research Hypotheses Development

Submitted By: Rasesh Patkar Roll No.: 22 T.Y.B.M.M. 2011-12 Kirti M. Doongursee College

HYPOTHESES DEVELOPMENT Definition A hypothesis consists either of a suggested explanation for an observable phenomenon or of a reasoned proposal predicting a possible casual correlation among multiple phenomenon. Hypothesis is a tentative theory or supposition provisionally adopted to explain certain facts and guide the investigation of others. Meaning The term derives from the Greek word, hypotithenai, meaning to put under or to suppose. A hypothesis can be considered to be an educated guess which is put forward as an answer to the proposed question. Observations lead to questions and questions are reworded to form a hypothesis. A hypothesis can be shown to be supported by evidence but it can never be proved.

Variables in Hypothesis Development A hypothesis should be in statement form that can be tested in an experiment. It includes two variables: An independent variable A dependent variable A variable is anything that changes in course of an investigation. In constructing a hypothesis, one variable at a time is selected and a suggestion is put forward as how this might influence the events under investigation. Independent Variable: Independent variable is also referred to as Manipulated or Experimental variable. It can be classified into two broad categories namely: A-biotic Biotic A-biotic These are the non-living factors in an environment. They include: Temperature Precipitation Humidity Oxygen Levels Sunlight intensity Salinity Light levels Turbidity Turbulence Chemical levels

The a-biotic factors will vary according to: The type of the environment in which they are found The latitude of the ecosystem Seasonal variations which may occur These factors consequently characterise an ecosystem and hence limit the range of organisms which will be represented in it. The range of any one or more abiotic factors influences the distribution and abundance of organisms. A-biotic factors also fetermine the rate at which the population interacts.

Biotic These are the factors which result from the living or biological components of the environment that can affect an organism and may include for example: Amount of food source Density of population- inter and intra species Interrelationships between organisms- inter and intra species Dependent Variable Dependent Variable is also referred to as Responding variable or the variable which is measured/directly observed by the experimenter. Organisms respond to the Independent variable in one of four ways: 1. 2. 3. 4. Behavioural response Psychological response Structural response Cultural response

Some of these responses can be short term and immediate and responses may in fact take several generations to respond to. Organisms may adapt to the environment and survive or they may not adapt and consequently not survive.

How Are Hypotheses Written? Chocolate may cause pimples. Salt in soil may affect plant growth. Plant growth may be affected by the color of the light. Bacterial growth may be affected by temperature. Ultra violet light may cause skin cancer. Temperature may cause leaves to change color. All of these are examples of hypotheses because they use the tentative word "may.". However, their form is not particularly useful. Using the word may does not suggest how you would go about proving it. If these statements had not been written carefully, they may not have even been hypotheses at all. For example, if we say "Trees will change color when it gets cold." we are making a prediction. Or if we write, "Ultraviolet light causes skin cancer." could be a conclusion. One way to prevent making such easy mistakes is to formalize the form of the hypothesis. Formalized Hypotheses example: If skin cancer is related to ultraviolet light, then people with a high exposure to uv light will have a higher frequency of skin cancer. If leaf color change is related to temperature, then exposing plants to low temperatures will result in changes in leaf color. Notice that these statements contain the words, if and then. They are necessary in a formalized hypothesis. But not all if-then statements are hypotheses. For example, "If I play the lottery, then I will get rich." This is a simple prediction. In a formalized hypothesis, a tentative relationship is stated. For example, if the frequency of winning is related to frequency of buying lottery tickets. "Then" is followed by a prediction of what will happen if you increase or decrease the frequency of buying lottery tickets. If you always ask yourself that if one thing is related to another, then you should be able to test it. Formalized hypotheses contain two variables. One is "independent" and the other is "dependent." The independent variable is the one you, the "scientist" control and the dependent variable is the one that you observe and/or measure the results. In the statements above the dependent variable is blue and the independent variable is red. The ultimate value of a formalized hypothesis is it forces us to think about what results we should look for in an experiment.

Techniques and Methods used in Hypothesis Framing 1. Manipulation Hypothesis Useful when effect of manipulating a variable on organisms is being studied. The IF will HAPPEN when ALTER statement Example: The plant will grow faster if watering frequency is increased 2. Choice Hypothesis Useful when investigating the preferences of an organism Given the choice THE will PREFER the OTHER PREFERENCE statement Example: Snails prefer wet soil to dry soil 3. Observational Hypothesis Useful when studying organisms in the field and when conditions cannot be changed; can also be a comparative statement. ORGANISM X is STATEMENT ABOUT DISTRIBUTION, DENSITY, and SIZE, ETC. Example: More pyretherum is grown in cool temperature regions that hot regions Types of Hypothesis We have two types of hypothesis: Null Hypothesis Ho: represents the status quo, the conservative theory from previous experience that we accept until proven false. (Trial defendant assumed not guilty unless otherwise proved) Ho always contains the = sign. We always assume that Ho is true. It states that there is no difference between a parameter and a hypothesized value Ho: : = : o or Ho: p = po

Alternative Hypothesis Ha: a theory that contradicts the null hypothesis, by specifying a DIFFERENCE between the parameter and the hypothesized value. It contains the claim, or what the researcher wants to prove. or Ho: : < : o or Ho: : > : o

Ho: : : o

Example: A chemical company claims its products will increase the life of car batteries. The mean lifetime of cars batteries is 36 months........Test the companys claim.

The Characteristics of a Good Hypothesis 1. It must explain and not just paraphrase. For example, why does alcohol cause drowsiness? Because when people drink, they get sleepy. 2. It must explain all the facts, or it is wrong or partly right. 3. It must not contradict itself i.e. must be consistent 4. It should be in accord with accepted principles. For example, the cat got up into the roof by floating upwards is just not acceptable. 5. It must be simple and not far-fetched and exaggerated in order to explain all the facts. 6. The explanation should not be contentious and in much need of justification as the original set of facts. 7. It must be testable i.e. capable of testing. Popper denounced the adoption of Marx and Freuds hypotheses as scientific theories as he realised that all history could be explained in terms of class struggle and that all human behaviour could be explained in terms of Freud. They were no tests they failed because no test actually tested on them. Other historical and psychological hypotheses explained all the data just as successfully. 8. It should be less complicated then what is explains. 9. It should be appropriate to its audience in terms and, if possible, concepts. A Bad Hypothesis These gain acceptance because they are attractive. Some people will only accept the hypothesis that reflects their own social or political bias. For example, racism, sexism, etc. Some expound hypotheses that explain things the way they would like things to be. Some people believe that everyone is manipulative so they explain human behaviour in this way. Others believe that people are genuine and come up with a completely different theory of human behaviour.

Hypothesis and Advertising research Advertising research is all about formulating theories and finding out facts and hypotheses development is the first step in formulating a theory. With cutthroat competition in the market, it has become essential for advertisers to venture into new product lines and innovative products. However, large amount of research is required to launch such products. Hypotheses regarding how the consumers will react, what the consumers are expecting, the product will be suitable to consumers living in X conditions, etc play an important role in making the product a success or a failure. Advertising Researchers should have the knack of framing good hypotheses as the entire process of Research and Development depends upon these hypotheses. A wrong hypothesis can distort the entire research process. Case Study: A research on In-Game Advertising In-game advertising (IGA) is the phenomenon where dynamic or static advertisements are placed in computer and video games. A research was undertaken to relationship between attitude toward in-game advertising and advertising effectiveness in terms of recall and recognition. The hypothesis was predicted a positive relationship between attitude toward in-game advertising and advertising effectiveness in terms of recall and recognition. However, after conducting research with a sample of 32 members, the outcome was quite opposite. User factors such as age, game experience, game likeability, and item specific factors such as characteristics of the display panel and relevance of the product to the game were found to play an important role in improving advertising effectiveness. Contrary to earlier studies, attitude towards in-game advertising was lower than expected, especially amongst the experienced game players. Scope for Hypothesis Development in future The scope for hypothesis development is ever increasing as research never tends to cease. On the contrary, with the increase in consumerism and competition, research will always escalate.