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REDUCE
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Infrastructure 344 0.3 57/14 23,935 2 17,749 5,382 CCON.BO CCCL@IN
`19 `17
12 Months
Consolidated Construction Consortium (CCCL) posted a disappointing set of numbers for 3QFY2012, as expected. The company reported a decline in revenue, with continued dismal performance at EBITDAM level, which along with interest cost burden led to loss at the earnings front. We are revising our estimates further downwards for FY2012 to factor in the poor performance on the revenue front during the quarter; however, we are keeping our FY2013 estimates unchanged. We recommend Reduce on the stock. Decline in revenue, continued abysmal EBITDAM performance -> Loss at earnings level (as expected): On the top-line front, the company posted a 10.0% yoy decline to `446.5cr, lower than our estimate of `535.9cr. On the EBITDAM front, CCCL continued its dismal performance and registered a dip of 510bp yoy to 4.6%, which was higher than our estimate of 3.2%. Interest cost came in at `18.3cr a yoy/qoq jump of 45.1%/6.4%, respectively, and in-line with our estimate of `18.6cr. Owing to poor show at the revenue and margin level, along with interest burden, the bottom line posted a loss of `3.2cr in 3QFY2012 vs. profit of `16.7cr in 3QFY2011 and against our estimate of loss of `5.2cr. Outlook and valuation: CCCL has been posting erratic numbers on the EBITDAM front and consequently has been performing poorly on the earnings front as well since the past few quarters. However, in 3QFY2012, the company performed badly on the revenue front as well. Further, slow-moving orders (`1,315cr, 22% of order book) and poor EBITDAM performance expected for another 3-4 quarters would result in subdued performance from CCCL going forward as well. Our target price for CCCL is `17/share based on 7.0x on its FY2013E EPS of `2.4, implying a downside of ~11% from current levels; hence, we recommend Reduce on the stock.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 50.7 21.3 13.9 14.2
3m 2.2
1yr 1.6
(9.5) (64.8)
FY2010 1,976 7.3 91.6 26.6 5.0 9.1 3.8 16.6 19.3 0.6 0.3 2.9
FY2011 2,199 11.3 46.9 (48.8) 2.5 7.0 7.3 7.7 13.2 0.5 0.3 4.5
FY2012E 2,258 2.7 (28.0) (1.5) 3.3 (4.6) 4.9 0.6 0.4 11.3
FY2013E 2,646 17.2 43.6 2.4 5.9 7.9 7.2 10.7 0.6 0.4 6.0
Shailesh Kanani
022-39357800 Ext: 6829 shailesh.kanani@angelbroking.com
Nitin Arora
022-39357800 Ext: 6842 nitin.arora@angelbroking.com
% Chg (yoy) (10.0) (4.9) (57.7) (510)bp 45.1 10.6 74.3 (97.2) (76.3) (74) -
% Chg (qoq) (16.7) (19.4) 171.5 320bp 6.4 3.0 71.6 (33.7) 100 -
% Chg (0.3) 5.2 (59.1) (510)bp 44.5 12.9 23.6 (63.8) (29) -
Projects update
On the Chennai Airport project, CCCL booked revenue of `105cr during the quarter. The company is hopeful of completing the balance project (~`50cr) by April 2012 and is expecting billing for the same by June 2012. On the 5MW solar power plant front, CCCL expects to achieve completion by February 2012 end. However, the Delhi car park project has not begun yet due to approval pending from Delhi Municipal Corporation, which is expected soon.
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
1QFY12
2QFY12
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
Earnings in red
On the EBITDAM front, CCCL continued its dismal performance and registered a dip of 510bp yoy to 4.6%, which was higher than our estimate of 3.2%. However, on a sequential basis, the company reported an improvement of 320bp. This improvement was on account of drop in material cost in absolute value during the current quarter as 1) substantial portion of steel and cement was procured on advance payments, which enabled to reduce price of procurement; 2) favorable conditions prevailed for procurement of cement at slightly better prices in view of the fact that cement companies were not operating at full capacity; 3) bulk material prices reduced from their peak due to better availability of materials. However, employee cost increased during the quarter by 2.3% on a yoy basis due to salary revisions, which took effect from July 2011, despite the fact that average employee strength stands reduced by 8.33%. Sales and administration cost during 3QFY2012 increased by 16.9%, owing to revision of sales tax rates in TNVAT coupled with implementation of the point of taxation rules requiring provisioning based on certification as opposed to payments and design fees incurred for some specified jobs. Interest cost came in at `18.3cr, a yoy/qoq jump of 45.1%/6.4%, respectively, and in-line with our estimate of `18.6cr. This was because 1) advance payments to procure steel and cement coupled with delayed payments from debtors resulted in higher borrowing; 2) overall borrowings increased from `518.2cr as of 2QFY2012 to `528.8cr during the current quarter; 3) higher utilization of CC limit and short-term loan facility during the current quarter; and 4) increased interest rate of borrowings. Owing to poor show at the revenue and margin level, along with interest burden, the bottom line posted loss of `3.2cr in 3QFY2012 vs. profit of `16.7cr in 3QFY2011 and against our estimate of loss of `5.2cr.
4QFY11
3QFY12
1QFY12
2QFY12
(3.5)
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY12
FY2013E Variation (%) (3.9) (9.7) (20)bp 40.0 40.0 Earlier Estimates 2,646 156 5.9 80 44 2.4 Revised Estimates 2,646 156 5.9 80 44 2.4 Variation (%) 2,258 74 3.3 73 (28) (1.5)
Revised Estimates
CCCL has been posting erratic numbers on the EBITDAM front and consequently has been performing poorly on the earnings front as well since the past few quarters. However, in 3QFY2012, the company performed badly on the revenue front as well. Further, slow-moving orders (`1,315cr, 22% of order book) and poor EBITDAM performance expected for another 3-4 quarters would result in subdued performance from CCCL going forward as well. Our target price for CCCL is `17/share based on 7.0x on its FY2013E EPS of `2.4, implying a downside of ~11% from current levels; hence, we recommend Reduce on the stock.
(1.5) 2.4
Recommendation rationale
Slow-moving orders: As of 3QFY2012, of its total order book of `5,906cr, CCCL had ~`1,315cr (22% of order book) worth of slow-moving orders in the infrastructure segment, which would keep its revenue growth under check for the next few quarters. EBITDAM to remain under pressure: Since the past few quarters, CCCL has been reporting EBITDAM of 1.4-4.8%, owing to: 1) managements error in estimating commodity prices for fixed price contracts; 2) high labor and procurement costs; 3) low-margin legacy orders; and 4) higher employee and sales and administration cost. Further, as per management, pressure on EBITDAM is expected to remain for the next few quarters, which continues to be an overhang on the stock. Return ratios take a hit: In the past, CCCL has enjoyed superior return ratios, because of which the stock traded at a premium to its peers. Currently, the companys return ratios have taken a hit due its poor performance. Going ahead, we see pressure on return ratios to continue and expect some improvement only in FY2013.
35.3
27.8
17.5
14.9
16.6
FY2008
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
13,832 13,763 16,017 43,905 53,779 60,258 1,816 5,074 3,476 7,850 2,209 4,889 1,952 4,946 3,573 2,602 5,562 2,503 5,749 3,609 2,585 6,485
9,585 10,592
10
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROACE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROAE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) W. cap cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage 0.1 0.2 14.2 0.1 0.5 6.5 0.3 0.9 5.2 0.6 2.3 2.8 0.8 6.7 0.8 1.0 3.8 1.7 19.2 120 2 77 62 14.4 143 2 93 73 11.3 169 2 100 97 10.7 185 2 94 121 9.6 197 1 97 139 10.0 185 1 91 130 35.3 43.6 27.8 17.5 20.8 14.9 19.3 23.3 16.6 13.2 15.0 7.7 4.9 5.3 (4.6) 10.7 11.4 7.2 11.1 0.7 3.9 31.3 6.9 0.1 33.7 6.5 0.7 3.2 13.6 7.5 0.1 14.3 8.5 0.6 2.7 15.0 7.8 0.2 16.5 6.3 0.6 2.4 9.4 8.0 0.4 9.9 2.6 2.2 2.1 11.6 31.4 0.7 (2.1) 5.2 0.7 2.2 7.7 8.6 0.9 6.8 6.2 4.8 5.1 0.5 24.6 3.9 3.9 4.4 0.5 27.9 5.0 5.0 5.6 0.5 31.9 2.5 2.5 3.3 0.5 34.0 (1.5) (1.5) (0.6) 0.6 31.8 2.4 2.4 3.4 0.6 33.6 3.9 3.6 0.8 2.7 0.3 2.3 0.6 4.8 4.2 0.7 2.7 0.2 3.2 0.5 3.8 3.3 0.6 2.7 0.3 2.9 0.5 7.3 5.6 0.5 2.7 0.3 4.5 0.6 0.6 3.0 0.4 11.3 0.7 7.9 5.5 0.6 3.0 0.4 6.0 0.7 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
11
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Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
CCCL No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
12