10 JUNE 2011

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Thought for the Day

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The past decade in Afghanistan has convinced many Americans of the folly of large-scale U.S. military intervention. The Pakistan experience shows that money often buys neither cooperation nor affection. The United States still needs to find a way to get troops out of Afghanistan and a means to deal with a wide range of enormous security challenges in Pakistan. Americans should not kid themselves. Enduring success in Afghanistan and Pakistan remains essential, but it is still a long ways off. ~Daniel Markey [For more, please see 9/11 Lessons: Afghanistan and Pakistan, under Special.

Flash Points
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AFGHANISTAN: An International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) soldier of undisclosed nationality was killed in an attack by unidentified militants in an unspecified area in the east of the country on 7 September. (Reuters) PAKISTAN: Two Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) passenger aircraft one bound for the UK city of Manchester and the other bound for Malaysia were forced to perform emergency landings in the Turkish city of Istanbul and the Malaysian capital Kuala Lumpur respectively on 7 September after the airline received emailed bomb threats. All passengers were safely evacuated from the aircraft and no viable devices were found onboard either during subsequent search operations. (Al-Jazeera/Reuters) KENYA: At least seven civilians were killed and four others were wounded in a suspected sectarian attack by a group of unidentified tribal militiamen in the Marti area of Isiolo district in Eastern Province early on 7 September. (Daily Nation) IRAQ: A senior Awakening Councils commander, identified as Sheikh Jassim al-Jubori, was killed and one of his bodyguards was wounded in an improvised explosive device (IED) attack by unidentified militants east of the city of Baqubah in Diyala province on 7 September. (Voices of Iraq) INDIA: Three people, including an internet caf owner identified as Mehmood Aziz, were arrested by security forces in the Kishtwar district of the state of Jammu and Kashmir late on 7 September on suspicion of connection to an email, allegedly sent by Harakat-ul-Jihad-ul-Islami (HUJI), claiming responsibility for an IED attack on the High Court building in the capital New Delhi earlier that day that killed at least 12 people. (Al-Jazeera/BBC) PHILIPPINES: Two local village officials, identified as Jose Pepito and Perlito de Leon, were shot dead by two unidentified militants on a motorcycle in the Tuburan area of Cawayan municipality in Masbate province late on 7 September. (Philippines Daily Inquirer) LIBYA: In an audio message broadcast early on 8 September on the Syrian-based Al-Rai television station, Muammar Ghadaffi called on Libyans to take up arms against the National Transitional Council (NTC) and accused the organisation of being a front for Western interests in the country. He also denied speculation that he had fled to neighbouring Niger. (Al-Jazeera/Reuters/BBC)

SYRIA: At least 20 people were killed and 20 others were wounded when security forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad supported by tanks and armoured vehicles launched a crackdown on a series of anti-government demonstrations held in the Bab Dreib and Bostan Diwan districts of the city of Homs in Homs governorate on 7 September. (Al-Jazeera/BBC/Reuters) ISRAEL/GAZA AND THE WEST BANK: A suspected member of the Al-Quds Brigades, the armed wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), identified by the group as Remah Fayez Al-Husseni, was killed and two others were wounded in an Israeli air strike targeting their vehicle west of the town of Deir elBalah in the centre of the Gaza Strip late on 7 September. (Maan News Agency/Reuters) UNITED STATES: The Department of the Treasury announced on 7 September that three men it suspected of links to Al-Qaeda identified as Libyan-born Abu Yahya al-Libi; Saudi-born Mauritanian national Abu al-Rahman Ould Muhammad al-Husayn Ould Muhammad Salim; and Pakistani national Mustafa Hajji Muhammad Khan had been added to its list of designated terrorists. (Reuters)

Top Headlines
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Another Deadly Bomb Blast in New Delhi Time | 7 September 2011 Ten people were killed and 61 injured by a bomb blast inside the Delhi High Court Complex in the capital on Wednesday morning. The militant group Harkat ul Jihad al Islami (HuJI) took responsibility for the blasts in an email sent to several Indian news organizations. The attack seemed to have been calculated to maximize the loss of life and to take advantage of gaps in the security screening process for this busy public building. ... [Article continues here: http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2011/09/07/another-deadly-bomb-blast-innew-delhi/?iid=pf-main-mostpop2] Hamas Surfaces In Worsening Israel-Turkey Ties Jerusalem Post | 8 September 2011 Israeli security officials reveal Turkish, Chinese Hamas presences. Hamas has established a command post in Turkey that it uses to recruit new operatives and oversee some of its operations in the Middle East, Israel's Security Agency, Shin Bet revealed. Hamass presence in Turkey came up during the Shin Bet investigation into the 13 terrorist cells that it recently discovered operating in the West Bank and Jerusalem. One of the cells was working to carry out a suicide-bomb attack in Jerusalem; the attack was thwarted. A senior Shin Bet official stressed, however, that the Hamas command post in Turkey was not directly involved in the cells that were captured, although one of the senior Hamas members who lives in Jordan also oversees operations in Syria, Turkey and China. Shin Bet officials said Hamas operations in China were financial and included money laundering and procurement of equipment. In Turkey, Hamas is believed to be active in recruiting operatives. Meanwhile, Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Yaalon accused Ankara of cooperating with Hamas and Iran. Hamass best-known overseas presence is in Damascus, home to its political leader Khaled Mashaal. Hamas is believed to be the strongest overseas in Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon but could potentially work together with other groups, such as Hezbollah, to increase its reach.

Special : 9/11 Lessons: Afghanistan and Pakistan

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9/11 Lessons: Afghanistan and Pakistan Council on Foreign Relations | By Daniel Markey, Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia August 26, 2011 A decade after 9/11, the United States is still at war in Afghanistan and lurches from crisis to crisis with Pakistan. Osama bin Laden is dead and al-Qaeda is weakened, but America's decade in South Asia has been full of mistakes. Successes have been too few, tallied slowly, and at grave cost. The initial U.S. invasion of Afghanistan was revolutionary in its combination of local militias and their warlord chiefs, U.S. Special Forces, and air power. In Pakistan, Washington demanded an end to Islamabad's relationship with the Taliban regime in Kabul, started a range of joint counterterror operations, and offered a generous package of assistance. At first, apparent progress masked deeper problems. In Afghanistan, the Taliban were routed, schools were opened, and elections held. In Pakistan, the military-led government signed up to the Bush administration's war on terror, netting a number of senior al-Qaeda leaders and scores of lower-level operatives. Yet many senior al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders evaded capture and used Pakistani safe havens to regroup and plot. The Afghan state and its security forces remained weak and corrupt. Pakistan failed to end its longstanding relationships with a range of dangerous militant groups. Worse, the veneer of success was intoxicating; it encouraged an expansion of U.S. ambition and rhetorical commitments even as the war in Iraq preoccupied the Bush administration. The resulting mismatch of sweeping, noble American aims with meager resources was disastrous. Washington failed to destroy al-Qaeda, failed to stem the Taliban's resurgence, and failed to clarify its goals or commitment to allies and adversaries. The Obama administration came into office in 2009 determined to reverse these losses with new leadership, attention, money, and troops. That effort has netted bin Laden and turned the tide on many Afghan battlefields. Still, Washington struggles to explain how military victories will translate into enduring security. Efforts to improve relations with Pakistan through aid and engagement have been overwhelmed by differences between Islamabad and Washington over whether and how to fight regional militants. The past decade in Afghanistan has convinced many Americans of the folly of large-scale U.S. military intervention. The Pakistan experience shows that money often buys neither cooperation nor affection. The United States still needs to find a way to get troops out of Afghanistan and a means to deal with a wide range of enormous security challenges in Pakistan. Americans should not kid themselves. Enduring success in Afghanistan and Pakistan remains essential, but it is still a long ways off. [Part of the series "Ten Lessons Since the 9/11 Attacks," in which CFR fellows identify the top threats and responses going forward. Read more in the series here: http://www.cfr.org/911/ten-lessons-since911-attacks/p25687.]

Counterterrorism News by Nation & Region

Afghanistan
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Four NATO Trucks Destroyed in Afghanistan Afghan Online Press | (Afghanistan), 7 September 2011 Taliban militants have destroyed four NATO trucks carrying supplies for US-led soldiers in Afghanistan in the eastern part of the country, Press TV reports. The attack occurred place in the city of Mohammad Aghe in the eastern province of Logar on Monday. The incident did not cause any casualties, Afghan officials said. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mojahid claimed that six NATO trucks had been damaged. NATO tankers and containers carrying fuel for US-led soldiers from Pakistan also come under attack by Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan militants in Afghanistan's neighbor. Hundreds of NATO tankers and containers have been destroyed in different parts of Pakistan over the past three years. The US military and NATO rely heavily on the Pakistani supply route into landlocked Afghanistan, more so now that Taliban attacks are increasing. Other routes, largely through Russia and the Central Asian states, have proved to be too costly, both politically and economically. [Article continues here: http://www.aopnews.com/today.html] Taleban Claim Killing 10 Security Forces In Afghan East Afghan Islamic Press news agency | Peshawar, in Pashto, 7 September 2011 Two explosions targeted security forces in eastern Khost Province in the early morning on 7 September, private Pakistan-based Afghan Islamic Press news agency reported. A local resident was quoted as saying the first explosion took place when a roadside mine exploded in the Mardikhel area while the second blast occurred when explosives placed on a tree went off as the security forces gathered at the scene. The eyewitness said he had seen a number of injured people being transported from the area but could not be more specific as the security forces immediately cordoned off the area and started firing in the air. A local health official told AIP that one body had been transferred from the scene of the incident. Meanwhile, Taleban spokesman Zabihollah Mojahed claimed responsibility for the explosions, saying 10 security forces had been killed and a number of others injured in the attack. Afghan Government Rejects UN torture Allegations Associated Press | 7 September 2011 The Afghan government on Wednesday strongly rejected allegations that its security agencies tortured detainees charges that were apparently raised in an unpublished U.N. report. The allegations prompted NATO to temporarily suspend some transfers of detainees from international to Afghan-run detention centers. They also threatened to further erode the already shaky relationship between President Hamid Karzai's government and the international community. Interior Minister Besmillah Mohammadi and Rahmatullah Nabil, head of the Afghan intelligence service, described the NATO decision to suspend detainee transfers as politically motivated and aimed at slowing down the transition of security responsibilities to the Afghan government. Afghanistan is gradually taking over responsibility for the country's security from the U.S.-led military coalition as foreign forces aim to withdraw all their combat troops by the end of 2014. The Afghan government "believes that any move to halt the transfer of prisoners under any false excuses is a serious blow to the transition process," Mohammadi and Nabil said in a joint statement. The two officials said that in the past, the United Nations in Afghanistan had assured the authorities that their detention facilities complied with international human rights standards. They also complained the U.N. had not given a copy of the report to the government. Some of the details of the report have leaked out ahead of its publication, prompting the responses. The U.N. has said it is still working on finalizing the report and will publish it once it has been completed.

Mohammadi said the government had found out about the allegations in the media. The report apparently included "claims of torture such as electric shocks, threats of sexual assault and physical torture such as the ripping out of nails in Afghan detention facilities." "The Afghan security agencies strongly reject the allegations," Mohammadi said, adding that international agencies, including the United Nations, had regularly visited Afghan detention facilities. Following such visits, they assured authorities of "their satisfactory findings as to the situation in the prisons and compliance with human rights standards," he said. [Article continues here:http://news.yahoo.com/afghan-government-rejects-un-torture-allegations130001115.html] Afghan Taliban Spokesman Comments on Turkish Prisoners Release SITE Monitoring Service | September 2011 Afghan Taliban spokesman Zabihulla remarked on the group's release of four Turkish engineers who were held for over eight months, and noted the well-treatment of the men during their detention. In a statement posted on the group's website on September 6, 2011, in Arabic and other languages, Zabihullah argued that just as the Afghan Taliban treated these and other captives well, the enemy should treat captive fighters well, also. He reiterated the Afghan Taliban's warning to foreign and Afghan companies not to work with the Afghan government, and stated: "However, some parties, due to their economic and political interests, do not pay attention to the warnings of the Islamic Emirate, and continue supporting the occupiers. Thus, the result of their violations will be the punishment and the capture of their employees by the mujahideen." On September 4, the Afghan Taliban announced that it released four Turkish engineers who worked for a Turkish company in the Batan area of Paktia province. The release, they said, was based on Islamic compassion and appreciate for Eid al-Fitr, which marks the end of the holy month of Ramadan.

Algeria
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Algerian Security Conference Focuses On Libya BBC World Service | 7 September 2011 Foreign ministers from North Africa were due to meet in the Algerian capital Algiers on 7 September to discuss ways of confronting terrorism and preventing the flow of weapons from Libya, BBCWS reported. High level delegations from France and the United States and diplomats from Mali, Niger and Mauritania were also due to attend the conference. Algeria has expressed concern that arms from Libya could fall into the hands of the north African branch of Al-Qa'idah (AQIM) which has been active in the Sahara, and has kidnapped westerners, the report noted. Algeria To Submit List Of Arms Smugglers At Conference Le Temps d'Algerie website | Algiers, in French, 6 September 2011 Algeria is expected to submit a list of weapons smugglers in the Sahel region to its partners in the fight against terrorism at the conference, Algerian privately-owned newspaper Le Temps d'Algerie reported on 6 September.

Bahrain
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Bahrain Panel: 101 Activists on Hunger Strike Associated Press | 7 September 2011 More than 100 jailed Bahraini activists including doctors who treated injured protesters during months of anti-government protests and crackdowns in the Gulf kingdom are on hunger strike, an international panel said Wednesday. The Bahrain Commission of Inquiry said in a statement that 84 opposition supporters are on hunger strike in prison. In addition, 17 detained activists have been hospitalized by the Interior Ministry for their refusal to eat. Hundreds of activists have been imprisoned since February when Shiite-led demonstrations for greater rights began in the Sunni-ruled Bahrain, the home of the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet. More than 30 people have been killed since protests inspired by Arab uprisings began in February. The five-member panel has been set up in June to investigate the unrest. Wednesday's statement said an international expert on hunger strikes will join the panel to visit the striking detainees and evaluate their condition. "Medical advice will be provided and the expert will discuss the challenges of hunger strike," the statement said, adding that the hunger strike started nine days ago. Among jailed activists on hunger strike are 20 doctors who are on trial in a special security court on charges of participating in efforts to overthrow Bahrain's 200-year-old monarchy. Other jailed opposition supporters have joined the strike, including two prominent Shiite activists, Abdul Jalil alSingace and Abdulhadi al-Khawaja. They were sentenced to life in prison in June for their role in protests. The doctors' trial is being closely watched by rights groups, which have criticized Bahrain's use of the security court that includes military prosecutors and civilians and military judges. The case against 11 health professionals was back in the special tribunal on Wednesday. No verdict is expected from the session. The Bahrain Commission of Inquiry includes international judicial and human rights experts. They started the probe with the consent of the Sunni rulers. The commission's findings are expected Oct. 30. Shiites comprise about 70 percent of Bahrain's 525,000 people, but are blocked from top political and security posts. [Article continues here: http://news.yahoo.com/bahrain-panel-101-activists-hunger-strike112949681.html]

Colombia
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Colombia's Complete Military Command Replaced Colombia Reports Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos announced Tuesday that the country's entire military command has been replaced amid growing concerns about increased violence by illegal armed groups. ... [Article continues here: http://www.colombiareports.com/colombia-news/news/18815-colombiascomplete-military-command-replaced.html]

Denmark
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Family Held by Somali Pirates Released Associated Press | 7 September 2011 Seven Danish hostages, including a family with teenage children, have been released by Somali pirates after more than six months in captivity, Denmark's Foreign Ministry said Wednesday. The Danes -- a couple with three children ages 12-16 and two crew members -- were captured in the Indian Ocean on Feb. 24 while sailing around the world in a yacht. "The seven Danes are doing well under the circumstances. They are expected back in Denmark in a short time," the ministry said in a brief statement. It gave no details of how they were released and made no mention of a ransom being paid. No one at the Foreign Ministry was immediately available for comment. Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen told public broadcaster DR that the Danes were on their way back in a chartered airplane paid for by their insurance company. Loekke Rasmussen said their release came after "a long period of negotiations." Jan Quist Johansen, his wife Birgit Marie Johansen, their sons Rune and Hjalte and daughter Naja, were captured along with the two adult Danish crew members when their 43-foot yacht was seized by pirates. The Johansens are from Kalundborg, 75 miles west of Copenhagen. They set out on their round-the-world journey in 2009. "Of course it is very cheerful news," said Ole Meridin Petersen, chairman of the Kalundborg yacht club, where Jan Quist Johansen was a member. "I can imagine that the hostages after their release need quite a lot of calm," Meridin Petersen told The Associated Press. The yacht was seized while the Johansens were sailing through the pirate-infested waters off East Africa. "The family very likely is aware that what they did was not so fortunate. They certainly feel pretty bad about it now," Meridin Petersen said. Hostages are held in hot, austere conditions in Somalia - typically for many months -- before a ransom is agreed on and paid, and the hijacked ships and crew are released. Last year, a British sailing couple were released after 388 days in captivity. Reports indicated that a ransom in the region of $1 million was paid for their release. Somalia hasn't had a functioning government since 1991, one of the reasons the piracy trade has flourished. [Article continues here: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/09/07/denmark-family-held-by-somalipirates-since-february-released/?test=latestnews]

France
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Western Governments Said Protecting Intelligence Officers From Scrutiny BBC World Service | 7 September 2011 Western governments have been accused by Europe's leading human rights body of shielding their intelligence services from accountability for serious violations, BBC World Service reported on 7 September. The report's author, the rapporteur for the Council of Europe, Dick Marty said these violations had occurred during anti-terrorist operations. He said a licence to abduct, torture or kill only existed in films and dictatorships but western governments were using the notion of state security to prevent parliaments and judges from scrutinising the work of intelligence officers.

India
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Deadly Explosion Strikes Courthouse in New Delhi New York Times | By Jim Yardley, 7 September 2011 An explosion ripped through a reception area of an Indian courthouse on Wednesday morning, killing at least 10 people and wounding more than 60 others in a bombing that renewed concerns about Indias vulnerability to terrorism. It was the second bombing of the courthouse in less than four months.

Relatives mourned a victim of the bombing, which struck a courthouse reception area. Harish Tyagi/European Pressphoto Agency.

Witnesses described a chaotic scene at the Delhi High Court after the blast at 10:14 a.m., outside a reception area used by litigants, lawyers and visitors to enter the courthouse. It was in shambles, said Ajay Mehrotra, a lawyer who witnessed the explosion. There was total chaos. There was blood. People were running for their lives. The Indian home minister, Palaniappan Chidambaram, called the explosion a terrorist attack and noted that New Delhi was already in a high state of alert with Parliament in session. Mr. Chidambaram said Indian intelligence agencies had received information in July about a possible terrorist threat to the city, which had been turned over to the local police. He did not elaborate about the intelligence report. On Thursday, three people were detained for questioning by the police, Reuters reported. The bomb blast took place just outside the reception center, Mr. Chidambaram said at a news conference. It is suspected that the bomb was placed in a briefcase. Reuters reported that a militant terrorist group called HuJI, for Harkat-ul-Jihad Islami, based largely in Pakistan, and also Bangladesh, had claimed responsibility for the attacks, citing security officials. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, speaking to reporters during a visit to Bangladesh, condemned the explosion as a cowardly act of a terrorist nature. We will deal with it, Mr. Singh said. We will never succumb to the pressure of terrorism. Indian authorities have come under renewed criticism in recent months about their preparedness to prevent terrorism. Terrorist attacks are a persistent concern in India, particularly in the countrys rapidly growing cities, which have endured a series of bombings in recent years. In July, more than 20 people were killed in Mumbai, the countrys financial capital, from three blasts timed to the evening rush hour. That attack raised painful memories of the bloody November 2008 attacks on Mumbai, in which militants trained in Pakistan swept through luxury hotels, a railway station and a Jewish center in a rampage that left more than 160 people dead.

Wednesdays attack at the Delhi High Court exposed anew the weaknesses in the courthouses security. In May, a smaller bomb detonated near a parked car outside the courthouse, causing no injuries. Witnesses told local media of seeing a black bag in flames after the blast. Rakesh Tiku, chairman of the Delhi Bar Association, criticized the Delhi police, saying the lowintensity blast in May should have served as an eye-opener. Mr. Tiku said hundreds of litigants and clerks passed through the gate where the blast took place each day, making it a vulnerable location. The Delhi High Court requested the Delhi police to install CCTV cameras as well as personnel to man the entrances three or four months ago, but no action has been taken, he said. The latest explosion occurred near Gate 5 of the High Court, outside a reception center where visitors wait for passes to enter the building. Lawyers said Wednesday was an especially busy day because the court heard public-interest litigation. What are the police doing? asked Mr. Mehrotra, the lawyer. The lives of lawyers, litigants and judges are at stake. Another witness, Brijmohan Sharma, described a very loud sound, the reverberations from which caused me to lose my balance. I got up and was surrounded by people running. He added: It was like a scene from a film. People were lying on the floor with their hands cut off, their legs broken and bleeding. The last serious attacks in New Delhi took place in 2008, when coordinated blasts in a park and in shopping areas killed more than 20 people and injured nearly 100. In those attacks, the Indian Mujahedeen, an Islamic militant group, claimed responsibility. The Delhi High Court is in the heart of the capital, a short walk from the citys landmark India Gate. Rahul Gupta, a local resident, said he was standing near the courthouse entrance when the ground shook from the blast, throwing people onto the road outside the reception area. Security is one area which no one can handle in Delhi at the moment, Mr. Gupta said. It is the fanatical people who are creating these types of problems and trying to create panic in the public. . The Indian government said that a preliminary analysis found a nitrate-based explosive with traces of pentaerythritol tetranitrate, or PETN, a powerful plastic explosive often used in terror plots. [Article continues here: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/08/world/asia/08india.html?_r=1&ref=world]

Ten Killed In Delhi Blast Multiple Sources At least 10 people were killed and 65 others injured in a bomb blast outside the Delhi High Court on the morning of 7 September, private Indian television channel IBN Live reported. The "terror strike" took place in a high security area with Parliament, the Prime Minister's Office and India Gate in the vicinity, the report said. (CNN-IBN website, New Delhi, in English 07 Sep 11). According to the website of the private Indian television channel NDT, the blast went off at the main entrance to the court on Shershah Suri Road, which is normally heavily guarded. The bomb went off just before the court was about to open, the report said. (NDTV website, Delhi, in English 07 Sep 11) Security officials were quoted by BBCWS as saying they suspected the explosives were hidden in a briefcase that had been placed beside the desk where passes were being handed out. An eyewitness told the BBC that it was a powerful blast, shaking the ground and buildings around him. (BBC World Service, 7 September 2011)

Delhi On High Alert In Wake Of Blast Multiple Sources The Indian capital has been put on high alert following the blast at the Delhi High Court, private English-language TV news Channel Times Now reported. (Times Now TV, New Delhi, in English 0530GMT 07 Sep 11) Hindi channel says received email from group claiming responsibility for attack. India's Hindi news channel Aaj Tak said on 7 September it had received an email claiming responsibility for the blast. According to the report, the email was sent from the ID harkatuljihadi2011@gmail.com. The channel said the police were investigating possible involvement of the Indian Mujahidin. (Aaj Tak TV, Delhi, in Hindi, 7 September 2011)

Police Probe Possible Links To Al-Qa'idah-Linked Group Noida IBN Live | in English, 7 September 2011 Police in Delhi are looking into claims that a Pakistan-based militant group linked to Al-Qa'idah, the Harkat-ul-Jihad Islami (HUJI), may have been involved in the attack, Noida IBN TV reported. According to the report, in an e-mail sent to a media house HUJI claimed it had carried out the attack in retaliation for the death sentence issued against Afzal Guru, the man found guilty of involvement in an attack on Delhi's parliament almost ten years ago. "We owe the responsibility of todays blasts at high court delhi..... our demand is that Afzal Guru's death sentence should be repealed immediately else we would target major high courts & THE SUPREME COURT OF INDIA," the e-mail read. According to the report, it was sent from the id: harkatuljihadi2011@gmail.com.

Home Minister Announces Probe Into Attack CNN-IBN website | New Delhi, in English, 7 September 2011 Indian Home Minister P Chidambaram, speaking in parliament, said that investigators did not yet know who was behind the attack but he blamed it on "terrorists" seeking to "destabilise the country". He said that the National Investigative Agency (NIA) would carry out a probe into the attack.

PM Denounces Blast As "Cowardly Act" Doordarshan news website | New Delhi, in English, 7 September 2011 Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on 7 September described the blast outside the Delhi High Court as a "cowardly act" and urged all political parties to unite and tackle any acts of terrorism, state-run Indian television channel DD News reported. "This is cowardly act of terrorist nature. We will deal with it. We will never succumb to the pressure of terrorism," Singh said. He said "this is a long war in which all political parties, all the people of India have to stand united so that the scourge of terrorism is crushed".

IED Explosion At Delhi High Court; Domestic Islamists Likely Culprits; Growing Signs Of Jihadist Agenda Sterling-Assynt | 7 September 2011 An IED placed inside a briefcase exploded at 10:17AM at an entrance to Delhi High Court where litigants collect their visitor passes. Wednesdays are reserved for public-interest litigation and so the area was crowded. It is likely that the briefcase was placed in the queue at reception before visitors pass through security checks. There is reportedly no CCTV coverage in this area, which will make identification of the perpetrator difficult.

The blast was of at least medium intensity and created a crater between three to four feet deep. At least eleven people have died and 65 others have been injured a toll that would probably have been higher if an international group had been responsible. There were no other explosions, which has the same implication. Mumbai has been placed on high alert following the attack, especially as the Home Ministry reported in August that coastal cities were under threat from pan-Islamic terror groups. No blame has yet been assigned. A minor explosion occurred on 25 May (also a Wednesday) in a car-park near the Court. That bomb was constructed using ammonium nitrate and is believed to have malfunctioned, causing no damage or injuries, which suggests similar origins to this one. There are reports of an email from Harkat-ul-Jihadi al-Islami (HuJI) claiming responsibility for todays explosion but we remain sceptical about this since the group has not previously made such claims via email. The nature of the bomb and the use of email to communicate suggest rather the involvement of the Indian Mujahideen (IM). Nonetheless, the unverified HuJI email demands that Afzal Gurus death sentence be repealed, and this may point towards the involvement of a jihadist agenda. Guru was involved in the December 2001 Parliamentary attacks in Delhi and had his mercy petition rejected by the Home Ministry on 10 August. Todays incident indicates an increase in successful attacks by local groups. A robust security force campaign following the 2008 Mumbai attacks diminished the capabilities of groups such as IM. They claimed responsibility for the December 2010 Varanasi bomb blast which killed one and injured twenty people. However IMs likely involvement in the July 2011 blasts in Mumbai and the attack today, points towards the rebuilding of its capabilities and possibly also the establishment of closer ties with jihadi groups. We do not expect a spate of attacks to follow imminently but such incidents will continue to occur, possibly on a larger scale, as IM continues to regroup following the security clampdown. Developments in the cases of Afzal Guru and Ajmal Kasab (the surviving gunman from 2008) will provide cause for further attacks. Given a recent warming in relations between India and Pakistan, the High Court attack will be unlikely to raise tensions between the two countries significantly. Indonesia
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Islamic Groups Continue To Harass Religious Minorities; Government Silence Further Encourages Attacks; Youths Beaten In East Jakarta Assynt S.E.Asia Vol VIII No17 | 7 September 2011 Hard-line Islamic groups continued to intimidate religious minorities without any response from the Government at either a local or national level. Yudhoyono relies on the support of Islamic parties in Parliament and is unlikely to take any decisive action against such incidents. This will further encourage radical groups and endangers the countrys reputation for religious tolerance. Three youths were beaten by members of the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) for allegedly being drunk. The attack took place in Jakartas business district, but it remains unlikely that the FPI will target foreigners and the security forces will not tolerate any threats to business interests. Nonetheless, such incidents highlight a worrying trend towards increasingly hard-line behaviour that remains unchecked by the Government. We previously reported that the light sentences handed down for the killing of three members of the Ahmadiyah sect will embolden radical groups (see our Report of 3 August). In this period, the Islamic Reform Movement (Garis) coerced Ahmadi youths in Cianjur, West Java, to join mainstream prayers. The Ahmadiyah sect, meanwhile, was banned from conducting religious activities during the Eid holidays by the South Sulawesi administration for fear of provoking violence.

Iran
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Two Arrested "Al-Qa'idah Members" Iraqi, Three Iranian - Iran Official ISNA website | Tehran, in Persian, 7 September 2011 The public prosecutor of Iran's Kerman Province, Yadollah Movahhed, has announced the start of an investigation into the case of five people arrested on charges of having links to Al-Qa'idah, the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) reported on 7 September. Two of the detainees - arrested on 19 August are Iraqis and the other three are Iranian nationals, Movahhed told ISNA in an interview on 7 September. The prosecutor said the detained people are accused of carrying illegal arms and munitions and added that an investigation is ongoing into the possibility that they were members of a larger group. Israel
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Israel Uncovers Planned Hamas Bombing Spree On Israelis Xinhua | 8 September 2011 Hamas cells operating in the West Bank routed between May and August. The Israeli security agency Shin Bet has broken a network of Hamas cells operating in the West Bank and planning a series of attacks against Israeli targets, local media reported Wednesday. Dozens of Hamas members comprising 13 militant cells were arrested throughout the West Bank between May and August, Army Radio reported. One of the groups has carried out a bombing attack at the entrance to Jerusalem in March, in which a British woman was killed and several dozen civilians wounded. Another cell had planned to dispatch a suicide bomber to Jerusalem's Pisgat Ze'ev neighborhood on Aug. 21. The attack was thwarted at the last minute by Shin Bet agents assisted by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and police, according to Army radio. Other groups were in "various stages" of planning and preparing attacks, including bombings and the kidnapping of civilians or soldiers for the release of Palestinians jailed in Israel. The Shin Bet concluded, based on its interrogations of the group members, that the Hamas military leadership in Gaza and abroad is exerting considerable efforts to "rehabilitate" its presence in the West Bank with financing and weapon smuggling. The West Bank has remained relatively quiet in recent years. Israeli officials attributed the success in preventing violence in the area to the cooperation between the IDF and the Palestinian National Authority's security forces. Israeli Air Strike Kills One Gaza Militant Xinhua | 8 September 2011 Strike follows more rocket launches from Gaza, warnings of new battles. An Israeli air strike killed an Islamic Jihad militant and wounded three others in the central Gaza Strip town of Dier a-Balah, witnesses and medical sources said. Local witnesses said the militant died after his car was hit by a missile, adding that three other people were also wounded. The condition of the injured is stable, hospital sources said. Earlier Wednesday, an Israeli military spokesperson said a rocket was launched from the Gaza Strip into south Israel, adding the projectile landed in an open area and did not cause injuries or damage. None of the Palestinian armed factions has claimed responsibility for the rocket attack. Late on Tuesday, a Palestinian militant was killed and two others injured when Israeli warplanes targeted a group of gunmen east of Khanyounis City, south of the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip. The Gaza Strip witnessed an escalation of bloody violence between Israel and Gaza militant groups in August, leaving 26 Palestinians and three Israelis killed. The violence was triggered after eight Israelis were killed in well-coordinated operation in the Red Sea city of Eilat. Israel accused Palestinian militants of plotting and carrying out the attack which started from the bordering Sinai Peninsula in Egypt.

Libya
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Libyan 'Extremist' Britain Allowed To Stay Was Link To Al-Qaeda In Iran, Papers Show The Daily Telegraph | (London), By Richard Spencer, Tripoli

The extremist Ismail Kamoka spent several years sending funds to terrorist groups across the Middle East

An Alleged Libyan extremist who sought political asylum in Britain regularly travelled to Iran from 2002 to provide forged documents to extremists linked to al-Qaeda, secret files found in a Tripoli intelligence service building have disclosed. The documents, seen by The Daily Telegraph, unearth British intelligence suspicions about links between Iran and al-Qaeda dating back almost a decade. Other details to come out of the documents, sent by MI6 and found in the office of the former head of foreign intelligence and later foreign minister Moussa Koussa, who defected in March, include the revelation that Britain had begun co-operating with the Chinese security services on Islamic extremists. The extent of Iranian co-operation with al-Qaeda has been disputed in intelligence communities, though Iranians are thought to have provided weapons and explosives to the Taliban in Afghanistan. A number of al-Qaeda operatives, including members of the family of Osama bin Laden, fled to Tehran after the fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan, and their precise status in Iran has been unclear. The papers in Libya do not directly challenge the Iranian government, but suggest that al-Qaeda operatives had more freedom of movement there than previously thought. The extremist Ismail Kamoka spent several years sending funds to terrorist groups across the Middle East, including some linked to alQaeda, the files said. Mr Kamoka, who had been given indefinite leave to remain in Britain after arriving from Saudi Arabia in 1994 and claiming asylum, "travelled from the UK to Iran via Switzerland" in July 2002, according to one document... [Article continues here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8740771/Libyan-extremistBritain-allowed-to-stay-was-link-to-al-Qaeda-in-Iran-papers-show.html]

Nigeria
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Bomb Explodes In Violence-Torn Nigerian City: Residents AFP | 6 September 2011 A bomb went off Tuesday in Nigeria's northeastern city of Maiduguri disrupting a three-week lull in bombings in the violence-torn city, local residents said. ... [Article continues here: http://news.yahoo.com/bomb-explodes-violence-torn-nigerian-city-residents215718081.html] Pakistan
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Pakistan Bans Foreign Travel For Those Involved In Bin-Ladin Probe The News website | Islamabad, in English, 7 September 2011 A Pakistani commission investigating the circumstances surrounding the killing of Al-Qa'idah chief Usamah Bin-Ladin has banned foreign travel for everyone involved in the probe, Pakistani daily The News, part of the Jang group which owns Geo TV, reported on 7 September. The paper recalled that the commission had already directed the country's interior ministry and the intelligence service, ISI, to ensure that the Bin-Ladin family was not repatriated from Pakistan without the consent of the commission. More Than 20 Killed In Two Suicide Blasts In Pakistan's Quetta Express24/7 TV | Lahore, in English, 5 September 2011 At least 22 people were killed and several others injured in two explosions in the south-western Pakistani city of Quetta on 7 September, the website of the Dubai-based private Pakistani TV channel ARY News reported. According to the channel, one blast went off near the residence of the Frontier Constabulary and another one near the commissioner office in Quetta. According to the report, around 100 kilograms of explosives were used in each attack. (ARY News website, Dubai, in English 07 Sep 11) Private Pakistani English-language TV channel Express 24/7 carried a series of onscreen scrolls which said police had confirmed that the two blasts were suicide attacks. The report cited police sources as saying that 25 people were killed and more than 40 injured in the attacks. (Express24/7 TV, Lahore, in English 0654GMT 07 Sep 11) BBCM notes that the attacks came after the Pakistani intelligence agency said on 5 August that it had arrested Al-Qa'idah commander Younis Al-Mauritani and two of his accomplices in Quetta. Taleban Say Quetta Blasts Revenge For Recent Al-Qa'idah Arrests AFP | 7 September 2011 The Pakistani Taleban have claimed responsibility for the twin suicide bombs in Quetta on 7 September, saying they were carried out to avenge the recent arrests of Al-Qa'diah operatives in the city. "We carried out the attacks," Taleban spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan told AFP in a phone call from an undisclosed location. Twin Suicide Bombings In Pakistan Leave 23 Dead Miami Herald Twin suicide bombers attacked the home of a senior military officer Wednesday in the western city of Quetta, injuring him and killing at least 23 people, officials said, in a possible revenge attack for Pakistan's recent arrest of a senior al Qaida commander. ... [Article continues here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/09/07/2394264/twin-suicide-bombings-inpakistan.html]

Philippines
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Moro Splinter Group Threatens US Soldiers In Philippines, But Capabilities Limited; Government-Rebel Negotiations Remain Difficult Assynt | S.E.Asia Vol VIII No17, 7 September 2011 Ameril Umbra Kato, a former senior Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) field commander who resigned late last year because he rejects peace negotiations, has threatened to attack US troops, as well as Filipino security forces and other Government targets. US and Filipino troops are currently undertaking joint training exercises. This is an annual event, but the first time they have been conducted in central Mindanao. However, Katos splinter group, the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF), is believed to have as few as 200 members with generally unsophisticated weapons. Consequently, BIFFs ability to conduct an attack on US forces is likely to be limited. In this period Kato announced the creation of a political wing to his grouping, the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Movement, emphasising his split with MILF. Nevertheless, he has not been expelled from MILF, and so is protected by the current ceasefire with Manila, though MILF has strongly condemned Katos threat against US troops. It is possible that MILF leadership is content to allow him to operate relatively unimpeded, in order to gain greater leverage in its negotiations with the Government, since they can contrast their more compromising approach with BIFFs threatened violence. Meanwhile, negotiations between MILF and the Government continue. MILF dismissed the Governments latest proposal for an autonomous region, but both sides appear committed to continuing talks. Russia
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Suicide Bombings In Grozny Demonstrate Islamic Insurgencys Continuing Capabilities In Chechnya Stirling Assynt Reports | Report: FSU Vol IV No17, 7 September 2011 A series of suicide bombings in the Chechen capital on 31 August (which left nine casualties, including seven police officers) has severely undermined President Ramzan Karydovs claims to have successfully eradicated the Islamic insurgency in the Republic. The first suicide bomber reportedly detonated his explosives in a densely populated area only 150 metres from a local Parliament building, while two further jihadists targeted first-response units. Significantly, the attack occurred during the Muslim holiday of Eid, a three day celebration which marks the end of Ramadan during which the risk of jihadist attacks is heightened. Indeed, in addition to this strike in Grozny, jihadist militants carried out further attacks in Iraq, Nigeria and Algeria during Eid this year. Although no group has claimed responsibility for this incident, it bears the hallmark of the Caucasus Emirate, and so was likely orchestrated by the groups newly appointed deputy, Khuseyn Gakayev, and his brother Vadalov. Indeed, the Gakayev brothers are believed to have been behind the attack on the Chechen Parliament in October 2010, demonstrating the groups capabilities and intent to carry out such strikes. Moreover, the timing of these bombings only two months after the reconciliation of the Caucasus Emirates leader Doku Umarov with Chechen commanders (see our 3 August Report) supports this assessment and suggests that further incidents and suicide bombings are likely given this truce. Suspected Militant Killed In Russia's Southern Republic Interfax news agency | Moscow, in Russian, 7 September 2011 Russia's National Antiterrorist Committee said on 7 September a militant had been killed in the Republic of Kabarda-Balkaria, the corporate-owned Russian news agency Interfax reported.

Saudi Arabia
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Saudi Arabia Shopping Around For Nuke Technology Haaretz | 8 September 2011 Ties with Pakistan may remain close as Riyadh seeks nuclear assistance. Synopsis: This week brought news that Iran, on its own, has produced new, advanced nuclear centrifuges. According to a report of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran has begun to install the centrifuges in its uranium enrichment facility in Natanz. But the high-level source noted that development and production of the new centrifuges began more than seven years ago. That does not speak of a great technological capability on Iran's part. Israeli intelligence, like its American counterpart, views 2014 or 2015 as the date when Iran will be able to build nuclear weapons, says the source - if it wants to and no one blocks it. In Saudi Arabia, in contrast, they are a bit more disturbed by the developments in Iran. An American Department of Energy delegation visited Riyadh and met with Dr. Hashim Yamani, who heads the King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy. Saudi Arabia wants to equip itself with nuclear reactors to generate electricity. The United States is interested in selling Riyadh reactors for two reasons - fat contracts and the ability to keep close tabs on nuclear developments in Saudi Arabia. The American administration is concerned that with a nuclear program for civilian uses, Saudi Arabia would actually like to prepare the infrastructure so it could switch to producing nuclear weapons relatively quickly, should Iran possess such weapons. Defense minister, Sultan Bin Abdul Aziz, and the country's former intelligence chief, Turki Bin Faisal, reportedly favor the preparation of a secret nuclear program for military uses, in cooperation with a Sunni Muslim ally Pakistan, which possesses dozens of atomic bombs. Saudi Arabia reportedly funded Pakistan's nuclear weapons program in return for Pakistan's promise to aid the monarchy in this area if need be. Serbia
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Serbia Threatened By Terrorism, Says Dacic Tanjug | 8 September 2011 US officials warned Serbia of possible terrorist activity, particularly against foreign interests. After a warning coming from USA officials, Serbia will raise the level of security in all facilities believed to be a possible target of terrorists, the country's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Interior Ivica Dacic stated Wednesday in the Palace of Serbia. He stated that the security measures will primarily refer to the facilities of foreign countries in Serbia, and added that special attention will be paid to the security of air traffic. "US officials assume that there is a possibility of new terrorist attacks in the USA and other countries, including Serbia," Dacic said following a meeting with Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction Margareta Wahlstrom in Belgrade and a session of the republic headquarters for emergency situations. Somalia
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Six Killed In Mortar Attack In Somali Capital Shabeelle Media Network website | Mogadishu, in Somali, 7 September 2011 Six people were killed and several others injured after three mortars landed in Mogadishu's Arjantiin neighbourhood in Kaaraan District on the night of 6 September, the privately-owned Shabeelle website reported. It quoted an eyewitness as saying that "two of the three mortars fired have caused the casualties, inflicting fear in the residents who returned to their homes after Al-Shabab vacated the area early last month". Kaaraan District is one of the areas taken over by the government forces and AU peacekeepers.

United States
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Post-9/11 Intelligence Reform Takes Root, Problems Remain Reuters | 8 September 2011 U.S. intelligence agencies will forever be scarred by their failure to connect the dots and detect the September 11 plot, but a decade later efforts to break down barriers to information-sharing are taking root. Changing a culture of "need-to-know" to "need-to-share" does not come easily in spy circles. Some officials say they worry, a decade later, about a future attack in which it turns out that U.S. spy agencies had clues in their vast vaults of data but did not put them together, or even know they existed. Yet significant changes, both big and small, have broken down barriers between agencies, smoothed information-sharing and improved coordination, U.S. intelligence experts say. From issuing a blue badge to everyone working in the sprawling intelligence community to symbolize a common identity, to larger moves of mixing employees from different agencies, the goal is singular -- to prevent another attack. "We're much further ahead," David Shedd, Defense Intelligence Agency deputy director, said of the ability to connect the dots compared with 10 years ago. Still, signs of a plot to attack the United States could be missed again. "My worst fear, and I suspect probably one that would come true, is that in any future would-be or actual attack, God forbid, we will be able to find the dots again somewhere because of simply how much data is collected," Shedd said. The political response to the failure to stop the attack was the 2002 creation of the Department of Homeland Security, pulling together 22 agencies to form the third largest U.S. Cabinet department behind the Pentagon and Veterans Affairs. That was followed by the creation in late 2004 of the Director of National Intelligence to oversee all the spy agencies, as recommended by the bipartisan 9/11 commission. Previously, the CIA director held a dual role of also overseeing the multitude of intelligence agencies. But in the aftermath of the 2001 attacks, policymakers decided that was too big of a job for one person to do effectively. Critics argued then and now that the reforms were the government's usual response to crises -create more bureaucracy. But others see much-needed change. "It has been a tremendous improvement," said Lee Hamilton, who was the 9/11 commission vice chair. "It's not seamless, there are problems, and we've still got a ways to go." The 2001 attacks involving airliners hijacked by al Qaeda operatives killed nearly 3,000 people in New York, Pennsylvania and the Pentagon. Various U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies had come across bits of information suggesting an impending attack but failed to put the pieces together. The CIA had information about three of the 19 hijackers at least 20 months before the attacks; the National Security Agency had information linking one of the hijackers with al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden's network; the CIA knew one hijacker had entered the United States but did not tell the FBI; and an FBI agent warned of suspicious Middle Eastern men taking flying lessons. Have the reforms made America safer? Officials say yes, and point to the U.S. operation that killed bin Laden in Pakistan in May that demanded coordination among intelligence agencies and the military. But there is an inevitable caveat: no one can guarantee there will never be another attack on U.S. soil. On Christmas Day 2009, a Nigerian man linked to an al Qaeda off-shoot tried unsuccessfully to light explosives sewn into his underwear on a flight to Detroit from Amsterdam. It turned out U.S. authorities had pockets of information about him. President Barack Obama used a familiar September 11 phrase to describe the 2009 incident as "a failure to connect the dots of intelligence that existed across our intelligence community." Roger Cressey, a former White House National Security Council counterterrorism official, resurrected another September 11 phrase: "It was a failure of imagination." The intelligence community had not seen al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, a Yemen-based al Qaeda off-shoot, as capable of striking the U.S. homeland. If the "underwear bomber" threat had originated in Pakistan "they would have gone to battle stations immediately," Cressey said. Some proposed changes in how authorities would respond to another successful attack still are pending. For example, creation of

a common communication system for police, firefighters and other emergency personnel remains tangled up in political wrangling in Congress over how to implement it. "This is a no-brainer," Hamilton said. "The first responders at the scene of a disaster ought to be able to talk with one another. They cannot do it today in most jurisdictions." Former leaders of the 9/11 commission issued a report card saying nine of its 41 recommendations remain unfinished. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence has experienced growing pains as overseer of the 17 spy agencies, churning through four chiefs in six years. Tensions over turf, confusion about the DNI's role, and problems herding agencies with very powerful chiefs of their own all came to a crescendo when retired Admiral Dennis Blair, the third DNI, tried to assert authority over CIA station chiefs, who represent the agency in different countries. "The position of chief of station is one of the crown jewels of the CIA, and they don't want anyone playing with their crown jewels," said Mark Lowenthal, a former senior U.S. intelligence official. After a dust-up with CIA Director Leon Panetta, who now is defense secretary, it was Blair who was sent packing. "I think the mistake that some have made is to have viewed the DNI and the Director of CIA as an either/or proposition rather than the power of the two working together," the DIA's Shedd said in an interview in his office. "There is a history of where that hasn't worked so well, I believe it is working much better today," said Shedd, who has worked at the DNI, CIA and National Security Council. Intelligence experts say in the current administration, Obama's top homeland security and counterterrorism adviser John Brennan arguably has more power than any of them because he has the president's ear. It's a reminder that, bureaucratic reform or no, personalities count in making national security policy. The improved sharing of secret data has led to yet another set of problems. The deluge of bits and bytes has subjected intelligence analysts to information overload as they try to sift through it all for relevant pieces. "Our analysts still are spending way too much time on finding the information rather than on the analysis of the information," Shedd said. "There is just too much data to go find it all." The intelligence community wants a system developed that would automatically process information from multiple agencies and then make the connections for the analysts. But greater inroads into sharing data across agencies does not guarantee that another attack will be averted. The threat has evolved and officials now are increasingly concerned about a "lone wolf" plot by an individual, not tied to any militant group, that may be more difficult to uncover. "Those threats will not come to our attention because of an intelligence community intercept," said John Cohen, a senior Department of Homeland Security counterterrorism official. "They will come to our attention because of an alert police officer, an alert deputy sheriff, an alert store owner, an alert member of the public sees something that is suspicious and reports it," Cohen said. One measure of the success of post-9/11 reforms is that a decade later the United States has not had a similar attack. "Now that could be luck, that could be skill, we don't really know," Hamilton said. "But in all likelihood what we have done, including the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security and the transformation in intelligence and FBI, has certainly been helpful." [Article continues here: ]http://news.yahoo.com/post-9-11-u-intelligence-reforms-root-problems052514320.html Comment: the value added provided by the Office of the DNI remains an open question for many within the Intelligence Community (IC) and is a favored theme of corridor discussion in IC-member agencies. On the other hand, there is broad agreement among intelligence officials that the degree of cooperation and coordination between intelligence agencies, and the character of intelligence sharing, has vastly improved. The fact that there has not been a successful major attack on U.S. soil since 9/11 not for lack of plotting is in great part testimony to this more effective cooperation.

Jihadist Suggests Striking New York City Bridges All SITE Intelligence Group | 6 September 2011 A jihadist pointed to what he found to be a weak point of suspension bridges, and directed his message to "those who love blasting and explosions." In a message posted on the Shumukh al-Islam forum on September 6, 2011, the jihadist, "Abu Suleiman al-Nasser," gave a picture of the Verrazano Bridge in New York on which he drew a red box and arrow on the bridge's center. He then gave a map on which he circled the various bridges in New York City and its boroughs. A fellow jihadist offered his own idea, giving a picture of the Hoover Dam and explaining that there is "no target more important" than dams. He wrote that striking a dam may lead to the submerging of cities and the killing of thousands of people, and in the case of the Hoover Dam, would impact Las Vegas, the "capital of gambling and debauchery." Counterterror Veteran is New Deputy FBI Director Atlanta Journal Constitution | 1September2011 A 24-year FBI veteran with extensive counterterrorism experience, Sean Joyce, has been named the law enforcement agency's new deputy director. Elevated to the No. 2 post within the FBI by Director Robert Mueller, Joyce replaces Timothy Murphy, who is retiring after 23 years with the bureau. Since last year, Joyce has been executive assistant director of the national security branch, responsible for the FBI's national security and intelligence operations. He earned the Attorney General's Award for Exceptional Service in 2004 for work on a counterterrorism squad in Dallas. In 2008, he was named chief of the counterterrorism division's international terrorism operations section, with responsibility for international terrorism matters within the United States. [Complete article is available here: http://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/counterterror-veteran-isnew-1153018.html] Top CIA Official: Obama "Changed Virtually Nothing Salon | 1 September2011 PBS's Frontline is airing an examination of "Top Secret America" on September 6. The show includes a rare and lengthy interview with 34-year-CIA-veteran John Rizzo, who is described as "the most influential lawyer in CIA history." Here is one quote they include from Rizzo: "With a notable exception of the enhanced interrogation program, the incoming Obama administration changed virtually nothing with respect to existing CIA programs and operations. Things continued. Authorities were continued that were originally granted by President Bush beginning shortly after 9/11. Those were all picked up, reviewed and endorsed by the Obama administration." [Complete article is available here: http://www.salon.com/news/politics/barack_obama/?story=/opinion/greenwald/2011/09/01/obama]

General Counterterrorism News

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The Terrible Missed Chance Newsweek | 4 September 2011 Special Agent Harry Samit of the FBI's Minneapolis field office knew he was looking into the eyes of a terrorist. It was early afternoon on Friday, Aug. 17, 2001. Across from him sat Zacarias Moussaoui, a 33-year-old French-born student arrested the day before for overstaying his visa. Moussaoui had paid more than $8,000 in cash that summer to sit in a cockpit simulator in a flight school in the suburbs of Minneapolis and learn - in a matter of days - the basics of how to fly a 747-400. Samit, a former intelligence officer at the Navy's celebrated Top Gun flight school, felt sure the man across the desk from him was a Muslim extremist who was part of a plot to hijack a commercial jetliner filled with passengers. "The trick," Samit wrote, in a soon-to-be-released excerpt of a book he's written about the case, "was getting Moussaoui to admit this and reveal details and associates to allow us to stop the plot." Surely, the bureau brass in Washington would share his concern, Samit thought. He was wrong. That same day, halfway across the country in the fluorescent-lit hallways of the J. Edgar Hoover FBI headquarters building in Washington, counterterrorism supervisors were treating Samit's first reports about Moussaoui with skepticism, even contempt. Michael Maltbie, a D.C. counterterrorism specialist, insisted repeatedly in the days after the arrest that there was no clear link between Moussaoui and Al Qaeda - the link needed for a warrant. Maltbie thought Moussaoui was a "dirty bird," he later told investigators, but favored deporting him to France. Believing a hijacking might be imminent, Samit appealed to his boss in Minneapolis, Special Agent Greg Jones. Jones picked up the phone on Aug. 27 and called Maltbie at FBI HQ. Moussaoui, he said, might be part of a plot "to get control of an airplane and crash it into the World Trade Center or something like that." Maltbie scoffed. "You have a guy interested in this type of aircraft," Maltbie replied, according to FBI documents. "That is it." (Maltbie declined requests for an interview.) At least Maltbie was paying attention. Michael Rolince, who ran the FBI's International Terrorism Operations Section, was arguably the bureau's most important go-between with the White House on domestic terrorist threats in the summer of 2001. He tells Newsweek he spent "less than 20 seconds" being briefed on the Moussaoui case that August. His office was inundated with terrorism probes, he said; since Moussaoui was in custody already, he posed no immediate threat. "Did it rise to the level of something that I would take upstairs?" Rolince asks. "The answer is no." At CIA headquarters, alarm bells were ringing loudly. CIA Director George Tenet was briefed on Moussaoui within days of the arrest, receiving a paper with the eye-catching headline "Islamic Extremist Learns to Fly." But the FBI's acting director that summer and the bureau's most senior counterterrorism official were left in the dark. [Article continues here: http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2011/09/04/the-terrible-missedchance.html] Pan Am Flight 103 - Lockerbie Bombing - al-Megrahi CIA Files Webwire | 31 August2011 BACM Research/PaperlessArchives.com has announced the publishing of CIA files related to the Pan Am Flight 103, Lockerbie Bombing. The files can be downloaded at no cost at: http://www.paperlessarchives.com/panam103cia.html The files date from 1984 to 1999. These are the most recent files on Pan Am 103 released by the CIA. This set of files is unique because it includes memos on the direct handling of an intelligence source. This type of information is exempt from the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) and is not often released by the Agency.

The files cover information received by the CIA on Abdel Basset al-Megrahi. Al-Megrahi is the only person ever convicted in the Pan AM 103 case. The Scottish government in 2009 allowed alMegrahi to be released from custody and returned to Libya, because of his failing health. With the recent fall of Muammar Qaddafi's regime, there have been renewed calls for al-Megrahi to be returned to Scottish custody or extradited to the United States and put on trial. [Complete article is available here: http://www.webwire.com/ViewPressRel.asp?aId=144692] Getting The Caucasus Emirate Right CSIS | August 2011 This report aims to set straight a rather distorted record. It demonstrates the veracity of three vitally important facts usually obfuscated in discussions of the subject: (1) the longstanding and growing ties between the CE and its predecessor organization, the ChRI, on the one hand, and al Qaeda (AQ) and the global jihad, on the other hand; (2) the importance of the CE jihadi terrorist network as a united and organized political and military force promoting jihad in the region; and (3) the salience of local cultural and the Salifist jihadist theo-ideology and the influence of the global jihadi revolutionary movement/alliance as key, if not the main, factors drive the violence in the North Caucasus http://csis.org/files/publication/110829_Hahn_GettingCaucasusEmirateRt_Web.pdf 7 Things You Didnt Know About the War on Terror Foreign Policy | By Eric Schmitt and Thomas Shanker, 6 September 2011 From an attempt to negotiate with Osama bin Laden to a proposal to threaten to bomb Mecca, it's been a wild decade for the U.S. national security establishment.

Our new book, Counterstrike: The Untold Story of America's Secret Campaign Against Al Qaeda, is in many ways a summary of the past decade of our reporting on the military, intelligence community, and domestic law enforcement as it entered a new era of Darwinian evolution to counter violent extremism.

It also is our deep dive into a decade of American counterterrorism efforts -- from the work of commando trigger-pullers and spies on the ground up to senior political leaders who wanted to defend the nation (and get re-elected). Our efforts to report and write this book allowed us to uncover many new missions never discussed before -- and gave us an understanding of how the "war on terror" had changed over the last decade. Our book assesses the 10 years since 9/11 as the military divides the fight: into tactical missions on the battlefields of modern terrorism; then the operational advancements that provided the means to success while not securing final victory; and at the top, the strategic level of policy debates about how the nation should combat this threat to its security.

Here are seven vignettes from Counterstrike that offer glimpses into the thinking of policymakers and commanders in early days after the Sept. 11 attacks and how that thinking evolved over the following decade into a more whole-of-government approach to combating terrorists:

1. Bush Tried to Negotiate with al Qaeda The George W. Bush administration, like all of its predecessors, swore never to negotiate with terrorists. But it did undertake an extraordinary, and extraordinarily secret, outreach effort to open a line of communication with Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda's senior leadership. It was an attempt to replicate how the United States tried to sustain a dialogue with the Soviet Union, even during the darkest days of the Cold War, when White House and Kremlin leaders described in private and in public a set of acceptable behaviors -- and described with equal clarity the swift, vicious, even nuclear punishment for gross violations. In the months after the Sept. 11 attacks, Bush's national security staff, working through the intelligence agencies, made several attempts to get a private message to bin Laden and his inner circle. The messages were sent through business associates of the bin Laden family's vast financial empire as well as through some of the al Qaeda leader's closest relatives, a number of whom were receptive to opening a secret dialogue to restrain and contain their terrorist kinsman, whom they viewed as a blot on their name. (To be sure, other relatives were openly hostile to the American entreaties.) According to a senior American intelligence officer with first-hand knowledge of the effort, the response from Osama bin Laden was silence. And the effort was suspended.

2. Sometimes a Wedding Is Just a Wedding In the early days after the Sept. 11 attacks, the CIA and FBI vied to produce the most compelling intelligence reports that tracked suspected terrorist plots. The agencies often worked at cross purposes, sometimes unwittingly. At one point in early 2002, both agencies were tracking what American analysts said were growing preparations for a major "wedding" somewhere in the Midwest. (In terrorist vernacular, the word "wedding" is often code for a major attack.) Dribs and drabs on this "wedding" planning made their way to President Bush from both agencies, independent of each other, of course. Finally, over the Easter holiday, during a video-teleconference with top aides in Washington from his ranch in Crawford, Texas, Bush stopped the briefing, exasperated by the discrepancies in the rival agencies' reporting about the suspected threat. "George, Bob, get together and sort this out," Bush told his CIA director, George J. Tenet, and FBI director, Robert S. Mueller III. Bush's instincts were correct. When the analysts finally untangled their clues, it turned out that the ominous "wedding" really was just that: the matrimony of a young man and a young woman from two prominent Pakistani-American families. There was no threat. There was no plot.

3. The Threat to Bomb Mecca As fears of a second attack mounted following the 9/11 strikes, U.S. government planners frantically cast about for strategies to protect the country. Even the most far-fetched ideas had a hearing, however briefly. In one case, some government planners proposed that if al Qaeda appeared ready to attack America again, the United States should publicly threaten to bomb the city of Mecca in Saudi Arabia, the holiest site in all of Islam, in retaliation. "Just nuts!" one Pentagon aide wrote to himself when he heard the proposal. The idea was quickly and permanently shelved.

4. The SEAL Raid in Iran That Didn't Happen When U.S. forces routed the Taliban government in Afghanistan and forced bin Laden and his top lieutenants to flee, many senior al Qaeda leaders, including bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman alZawahri, escaped to neighboring Pakistan. But a separate group, including the al Qaeda leader's son, Saad bin Laden, fled to northern Iran, where American troops would not pursue them and the Iranians would likely not detain them. But the Shiite clerics running Iran placed the al Qaeda operatives and their family members under virtual house arrest, and they became a shield against possible attacks from the Sunni-based terrorist organization. One plan in particular illustrated the bold thinking and wildly unrealistic aims of the military's initial approach after 9/11 to kill or capture terrorist leaders. The plan called for hunting the eight to 10 senior al Qaeda leaders and operatives who had sought refuge in Chalus, an Iranian resort town on the Caspian Sea, where they had been detained. At the Joint Special Operations Command at Fort Bragg, N.C., military planners drew up options for Navy SEALs to sneak ashore at night using state-of-the-art mini-submarines. Once they landed, the SEALs would slip past Iranian guards to snatch the al Qaeda leaders. Another option called for Special Operations helicopters to spirit American commandos into the town and whisk them out again with their quarry. The Americans went as far as conducting two or three rehearsals at an undisclosed location along the U.S. Gulf Coast in early 2002. They conducted small-boat insertion exercises involving about 30 Special Operations personnel, most SEALs, and eventually concluded the mission was feasible if they were provided with more detailed intelligence on the locations of the al Qaeda members and the security around them. The logistics of the mission were daunting. Chalus sits at the edge of the Elburz coastal mountain range about 70 miles north of Tehran, and the failed rescue of the American hostages in Iran in April 1980 loomed large in commanders' memories. Eventually, Gen. Richard B. Myers, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, rejected the mission as too risky and too politically volatile. Many of the al Qaeda operatives are reportedly still there.

5. Intelligence Hauls of Unusual Size U.S. intelligence and military commandos have carried out tens of thousands of raids in the decade since 9/11. The amount of material seized from terrorist and insurgent targets has grown to a massive size. The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) operates exploitation triage centers and giant warehouses for storing intelligence products -- in war zones, rear headquarters in countries like Qatar, and back in the United States. One intelligence analyst said that walking into one of the warehouses for documents and media exploitation reminded him of the final scene in Raiders of the Lost Ark, when the captured Ark of the Covenant is crated up and rolled into a cavernous storage area that contains all the government's other dangerous secrets. All told, more than two million individual documents and electronic files have been catalogued by media type: hard copy, phone number, thumb drive. Each is inspected by a linguist working with a communications analyst or computer expert. The DIA analysts are joined by specialists from other agencies, including the FBI and the Drug Enforcement Administration. Yet given the overwhelming volume, no more than about 10 percent of the captured intelligence has ever been analyzed. Intelligence officers say they simply are overwhelmed, and untold quality leads may still be buried in the piles of computers, digital files, travel documents, and pocket litter.

6. The Digital Counterjihad Cyberspace is the terrorists' ultimate safe haven. It's where they recruit, raise money, and even plot attacks, using coded language while playing online video war games. The U.S. government fights back. One technique is called false band replacement, whereby the intelligence agencies infiltrate militants' networks and post their own material to counter extremist efforts on those same jihadist websites. The trick is to forge the onscreen trademarks -- "web watermarks" -- of al Qaeda media sites. This makes messages posted on these sites official, and sows dissent and confusion among the militants. This Internet spoofing can be used in support of more traditional combat missions. There is at least one case confirmed by American officials in which a jihadist website was hacked by American cyberwarriors to lure a high-value al Qaeda to a surreptitious meeting with extremist counterparts -- only to find a U.S. military team in waiting.

Getty images.

7. First, Kill the Mullahs U.S. counterterrorism officials have learned fighting terrorists effectively means targeting specific nodes of that network that support and enable militants who strap on suicide vests. This strategy focuses on neutralizing enablers such as the financiers, gun-runners, and logisticians. Among these terror linchpins are religious leaders who bless attacks. Heavenly reward will not await a suicide bomber unless his death and those of his victims is deemed halal, in keeping with Islam's sacred sharia law. Each militant network has a sharia emir, usually at the level of a sheikh or mullah. In Iraq, American commanders specifically killed emirs to throw a wrench in a suicide bombing networks. "Take him out, and suicide bombings from that network are frozen until he is replaced," said one military officer with command experience in Iraq. [Complete article is available here: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/09/06/7_things_you_didn_t_know_about_the_war_on_terror]

Dick Marty Rendition Report Condemns Cult of Secrecy BBC News | 8 September 2011 A report for Europe's human rights watchdog has called for greater scrutiny of secret services and support for whistleblowers. The Council of Europe investigated how countries like Britain, Germany, Romania and Lithuania assisted the US with the rendition of terror suspects. It said a "cult of secrecy" had helped Western governments cover up abuses. Defending "whistleblowers", it singled out US soldier Bradley Manning, accused of passing secrets to Wikileaks. He had "acted as a whistleblower and should be treated as such", CoE rapporteur Dick Marty wrote in the report, which was due to be submitted to the CoE's Parliamentary Assembly. The soldier is currently in a US military prison awaiting trial for passing restricted material to the controversial website. But the report praised Mr Manning, and Wikileaks itself, for uncovering evidence of rendition. The CoE represents 47 member-states, including both EU countries and Russia and other ex-Soviet states. Mr Marty's report focused on the record of Western states, explaining that it was based on investigations into European links to the controversial US policy of "rendition" for terrorism suspects. The CIA allegedly flew terror suspects around the world for interrogation in the years after 9/11, holding them in secret prisons in Europe and elsewhere. 'No licence to kill' In his 48-page report - entitled Abuse of State Secrecy and National Security - Mr Marty looked at the level of control exercised by European states over their security services. He urged all states to use independent parliamentary committees to oversee the work of their secret services, saying this was of "vital importance for the rule of law and democracy". Mr Marty argued that Western governments were using the notion of state secrecy to shield their intelligence services from accountability for serious violations committed during anti-terrorist operations. "We consider that this is simply unacceptable..." he wrote. "A 'licence to kill' (or to abduct and torture) only exists in certain films, and in dictatorial regimes. In democratic systems, parliaments, as representatives of the people, have a right and duty to know what the government is doing in the name of the people." Mr Marty praised investigative journalists and non-governmental organisations for their work in exposing abuses of authority. Stressing the "fundamental role" whistleblowers had to play in an open society, he warned against "a real cult of secrecy... as an instrument of power". While it was up to the courts to decide if Bradley Manning had committed any crime, he wrote, the CoE was "indebted to him" for the publication of a recording of a helicopter attack in Iraq "in which the crew seems to have intentionally targeted and killed civilians". Thanks to Mr Manning, he said, a large number of embassy reports had "allowed us to learn significant details of important recent events... which are obviously of general interest". "We therefore join Amnesty International in expressing our worries as to the treatment he receives," Mr Marty wrote in the draft report. [Article continues here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14820145] Comment: This report demonstrates that Dick Marty is not, as De Gaulle would say, a serious man. To suggest that Bradley Manning is a hero and intelligence agencies bent on defeating terrorists are criminals, should say it all. Manning knowingly violated his oath and willfully provided enormous amounts of classified material to WikiLeaks. For Marty, this is a good thing, in the name of transparency. Marty, always injudicious and anti-American in his remarks, is now moving at warp speed into crackpot territory.

Al Qaida & its Affiliates

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Al Qaeda Is Down, Not Out Los Angeles Times | By Amy Zegart, 7 September 2011 U.S. talk of defeating terrorism is dangerously premature. Talk of strategically defeating Al Qaeda is all the rage in the White House these days. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta used the "D-word" in July. President Obama declared in his new counterterrorism strategy, "We can say with growing confidence... that we have put Al Qaeda on the path to defeat." Compared to the woeful state of the economy, terrorism has become the administration's feelgood story of the year. "Defeat" is a big word. It is also dangerously misleading. Yes, the United States has made great strides in the last decade to harden targets, improve intelligence and degrade the capabilities of violent Islamist extremists. Osama bin Laden's death was a major accomplishment. But the fight is nowhere close to being won, and America's most perilous times may lie ahead. Three reasons explain why. The first is that strategically defeating Al Qaeda is not nearly as important as it sounds. After 9/11, Al Qaeda morphed into a more complicated, decentralized and elusive threat consisting of three elements: core Al Qaeda; affiliates or franchise groups operating in places like Yemen and Somalia with loose ties to the core group; and homegrown terrorists inspired by violent extremism, often through the Internet in the comfort of their own living rooms. Core Al Qaeda's capabilities started degrading in 2001, when the U.S. invaded Afghanistan, dismantled training camps, ousted the Taliban and sent Bin Laden running. The CIA has estimated the core group remaining in the Afghanistan/Pakistan region to number 50 to 100 fighters. The last time Bin Laden oversaw a successful operation was 2005, when Al Qaeda struck the London transit system. But plots by homegrowns and franchise groups have risen dramatically in recent years. The 2009 Ft. Hood shooting, the worst terrorist attack on U.S. soil since 9/11, was the work of a homegrown terrorist. The "mastermind" of the 2010 Times Square car bomb plot was a naturalized American citizen trained by the Pakistani Taliban, not Al Qaeda. Another franchise group, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, was behind the foiled 2009 Christmas Day "underwear bomber" aviation plot and the 2010 plot to explode tampered printer cartridges aboard cargo planes. The Bipartisan Policy Center reported 11 violent Islamist extremist terrorist incidents against the U.S. homeland in 2009, the most since 9/11. Nearly all involved what former CIA Director Mike Hayden calls "a witches' brew" of radicalized Americans and franchise groups. The second reason why talk of defeat is premature has to do with weapons. Terrorism against Americans is nothing new. The potential for terrorist groups to acquire weapons of mass destruction is. In 1995, a Japanese cult released sarin nerve gas in the Tokyo subway, killing 12 people and injuring thousands. It was the first WMD terrorist attack in modern history, and it sparked a wave of presidential terrorism commissions years before Bin Laden became a household name. It is this specter of the lone fanatic or small group armed with the world's most devastating weapons that keeps experts up at night. In 2005, 60 leading nuclear scientists and terrorism experts were asked how many believed the odds of a nuclear attack on the U.S. were negligible. Only three or four hands went up; most were far more pessimistic. Today, there is enough nuclear material to build 120,000 weapons. As long as fissile material is poorly stored and rogue states like Iran and North Korea continue their illicit weapons programs, nuclear terrorism remains a haunting possibility. The third reason is that the FBI has not yet become a first-rate domestic intelligence agency. Analysts, whose work is vital to success, are still second-class citizens, labeled "support staff" alongside secretaries and janitors, and passed over for key jobs, including running the bureau's intelligence units. The FBI's information technology is so antiquated, it belongs in a museum. And the old crime-fighting

culture still lives. There is now a move afoot to shrink new classified facilities so that agents don't have to "waste time" away from their cases to read intelligence documents there. "Strategically defeating Al Qaeda" sounds too good to be true. Because it is. Amy Zegart is a senior fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution and the author of "Eyes on Spies: Congress and the United States Intelligence Community." US Counterterror Chief: Al-Qaida On 'Steady Slide.' Boston.com | 31 August 2011 White House counterterrorism chief John Brennan said al-Qaida is "on a steady slide" after the death of al-Qaida's latest second-in-command in Pakistan. Brennan told The Associated Press on Wednesday that it's a "huge blow" in the first official White House comment since Atiyah Abd al-Rahman's reported killing by CIA drone strike in Pakistan's tribal areas last week. "Al-Qaida is sort of on the ropes and taking a lot of shots to the body and the head," Brennan said. "This is a time not to step back and let them recover," a message he says he's sending to his counterparts in Pakistan. [Article continues here: http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2011/08/31/us_counterterror_chief_al_qaida_o n_steady_slide/] Al-Qaeda (A.K.A. Al-Qaida, Al-Qaida) Council on Foreign Relations | 29 August 2011 Al-Qaeda, an international terrorist network, is considered the top terrorist threat to the United States. The group is wanted for its September 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, as well as a host of lesser attacks. To escape the post-9/11 U.S.-led war in Afghanistan, al-Qaeda's central leadership fled eastward into Pakistan, securing a safe haven in loosely governed areas there. In July 2007, U.S. intelligence agencies found that the organization was regrouping and regaining strength in these tribal areas along the border with Afghanistan, though targeted killings of senior al-Qaeda leaders have since diminished the group's command and control capabilities. In February 2009, Director of National Intelligence Dennis C. Blair told lawmakers that the group's core "is less capable and effective than it was a year ago." The killing of al-Qaeda's top leader Osama bin Laden by U.S. forces in Pakistan in May 2011 served a significant blow to the organization, but analysts say al-Qaeda remains deadly with its networks spread all over the world. Plus, a number of affiliated groups have gained prominence in recent years, complicating the task of containing the organization... [Article continues here: http://www.cfr.org/terrorist-organizations/al-qaeda-k-al-qaida-al-qaida/p9126] Al Qaeda In The Islamic Maghreb CSIS | 1 September 2011 Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) emerged from a decades-long militant Islamist tradition in Algeria. In 1998, the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (Groupe Salafiste pour la Prdication et le Combat, or GSPC) broke away from the Armed Islamic Group (GIA) because of the GIAs extensive targeting of civilians. Gradually, the GSPC evolved to encompass global jihadist ideology in addition to its historical focus on overturning the Algerian state. In 2006, the GSPC officially affiliated with al Qaeda core, soon rebranding itself as al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. In the following years, AQIM was able to conduct a small number of large-scale attacks, most notably its 2007 bombing of the UN headquarters in Algiers. In recent years, counterterrorism pressure and weak governance have combined to shift the center of AQIMs presence to the Sahara-Sahel region. AQIM continues to make its presence known through smuggling operations, kidnappings, and clashes with security forces in the desert. In the coming years, general instability within the region could allow AQIM to further expand its influence... [Complete article is available here: http://csis.org/files/publication/110901_Thornberry_AQIM_WEB.pdf.]

AQ Strategy The Assynt Report | 11 August 2011 Executive Summary Al-Qaedas broad objectives remain unchanged in the wake of bin Ladens death. There are nonetheless growing questions over al-Qaedas capability. Longstanding paranoia over the use of electronic communications is heightened by the ongoing US drone campaign whilst attacks against the West have generally been disrupted at an early stage. The Pakistani Talibans attack on a Karachi naval base in May 2011 was a significant military success and the first major act of revenge for bin Ladens killing. Further attempts to avenge his loss are certain. All parts of al-Qaeda are working within a cohesive framework with the ultimate aim of restoring the Islamic Caliphate (Khilafa). The strategic plan to support this aim was drafted by 40 of al-Qaedas brightest thinkers in Kandahar, Afghanistan, in November 1999. This plan consists of four phases, each seven years long, leading to the dissolution of corrupt regimes and the union of all newly-liberated states within the Khilafa. Apart from mounting strategic operations, al-Qaedas role is to be the inspiration for a truly global jihadist movement. It seeks to achieve this through: provision of training; being a role model for others to follow; extending acceptance and adoption of its tactics, particularly suicide bombings; and professionalising jihadist media to build a common brand and message between hitherto separate groups. Between the late 1990s and 2003, the organisation was primarily devoted to classic international terrorism. Most effort is now spent fighting insurgencies from North Africa to South Asia. The way in which this strategy helps to spread the struggle has been seen in North-West Africa, where the initial development of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb was in part fed by men returning from fighting with al-Qaeda in Iraq. Since mid-2009, al-Qaeda and its affiliates have increasingly encouraged jihadistsympathisers resident in Western countries to engage in violence themselves, without central direction or training, making surveillance more difficult. One of the keys to awakening the spirit of jihad was the success in portraying the US and its allies as Crusaders in the Muslim world. Al-Qaedas strategy essentially requires that this process be kept running until the forces of jihad have grown large enough to launch successful liberation operations. Despite its successes in Afghanistan, al-Qaedas credibility has suffered both from its failure to land another strategic blow on the West on the scale of 9/11 and also excessive Muslim casualties in some operations. Similarly, al-Qaeda in Iraq was set back by its excessive sectarian zeal and local resentment at the foreign fighter presence. In turn, this affected the movements funding from the Gulf.

Analysis: Sub-Saharan African Leaders, Media Focus On Threats Prior to 9/11 OSC Feature | Sub-Sahara Africa -- OSC Analysis, 6 September 2011 Statements by Sub-Saharan African leaders and African media reports on terrorism prior to the 10th anniversary of 9/11 focus on the growing threats from local extremists and Al-Qa'ida affiliates, particularly in West Africa, with little direct commentary on the anniversary or US counterterrorism policies. This focus on domestic threats suggests that counterterrorism messages expressing solidarity with African nations and acknowledging the evolving terrorist threat on the continent would have the greatest resonance with African audiences.

Leaders Stressing Determination To Counter Local Threats African leaders' public statements reflect an ongoing concern about the threat of terrorism on the continent and a strong commitment to find ways to combat this threat. Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan emphasized the government's "commitment to vigorously combat" terrorism following the 26 August bombing of the UN office in Abuja by Nigerian extremist group Boko Haram, reported the Paris-based news agency AFP. President Jonathan is hosting Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and other foreign dignitaries for a three-day forum on terrorism and economic crimes, the widely read Lagos-based independent daily The Guardian reported on 4 September. Malian President Amadou Toumani Toure launched a Special Program for Peace, Security, and Development on 9 August, stating that development remained "the most viable solution" to counter threats to the country's stability, reported Mali's state-owned daily L'Essor.[ 3] The program aimed to undermine support for Al-Qa'ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), according to Burkinabe web portal Lefaso.net on 11 August. Somali Prime Minister Abdiweli Muhammad Gas stated on 23 August that the Transitional Federal Government planned to remove Al-Shabaab from the central and southern regions in Somalia with the goal of restoring "peace within one year so the country can hold national elections," according to the Puntland-based Garowe Online.

Experts, Media Highlight New Capabilities, Tactics African experts and media outlets are warning about the evolving nature of terrorist organizations on the continent, the terrorists' pursuit of new targets and tactics, and their potential for taking advantage of regional instability. Leading South African think tank, the Institute for Security Studies, stated on 29 August that Boko Haram's attack on the UN in Abuja "completes Boko Haram's metamorphosis into an international terrorist group." Since December 2010, Boko Haram had killed over 600 people in over 70 attacks against Nigerian targets, according to the think tank, but had not previously targeted Western or international interests. A 26 August article on the popular Malian web portal Maliweb voiced concern that AQIM could benefit from Tuareg mercenaries, many of whom were recently returning from fighting in Libya, and could benefit from an increase in arms trafficking through the Sahel during the Libyan conflict. Uganda's privately owned Daily Monitor reported on 19 August that AU forces in Somalia warned that Al-Shabaab planned to increase the number of kidnappings and bomb attacks as part of its new strategy to shift from controlling territory in Mogadishu to conducting more of an insurgent campaign. Concern Over Al-Qa'ida Presence, Terrorist Collaboration West African official statements and media reports reflect a growing concern over an increased AlQa'ida presence in West Africa and collaboration with AQIM, Al-Shabaab, and Boko Haram. Nigerian security services reported that the suspected mastermind behind the 26 August bombing of the UN office in Abuja was a Boko Haram member with close links to AlQa'ida and Al-Shabaab, according Nigeria's privately owned Daily Sun. A 28 August report in the privately owned daily Nigerian Tribune claimed that the 26 August bombing in Abuja was part of Al-Qa'ida's plans to mark the 10th anniversary of 9/11 and called Boko Haram Al-Qa'ida's "ally in the region."

An 8 August commentary in Burkina Faso's L'Observateur Paalga said that reports of Boko Haram collaboration with Al-Shabaab and AQIM could indicate that "Al-Qa'ida is extending its African tentacles." Abdourahmane Dieng, security division chief of the Economic Community of West African States, said the collaboration represented a "very serious threat," according to Senegal's progovernment Le Soleil on 5 August.

Messages Likely To Resonate With African Audience Sub-Saharan Africa's increasing concern about the shifting nature and potential strengthening of the terrorist threat on the continent suggests that messages directly addressing the impact of terrorism on Africans, the increasingly complex nature of the threat, and the need for multilateral cooperation against terrorism are most likely to resonate with Africans. Messages expressing solidarity and sympathy for Africans affected by Boko Haram, AlShabaab, and AQIM would almost certainly resonate with a broad African audience. African political and military leaders would probably welcome acknowledgement of the complex and changing nature of terrorism on the continent and recognition of their initiatives and commitment to countering violent extremism. African leaders' and media's concern about potential collaboration between Boko Haram, Al-Shabaab, and AQIM suggest that they would be open to improving multilateral and cross-regional sharing of lessons learned and strategies to counter the intensification of terrorism within Africa.

Aviation and Maritime Security

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Bomb Threats Force Jets To Land Associated Press | 7 September 2011 Both landed safely, one landed in Ankara Ataturk International Airport and the other at Kuala Lumpur. Two flights operated by Pakistan's state-owned airline received bombs threats on Wednesday, and both landed safely, one in Turkey, the other in Malaysia, officials said. No bombs were found. The first flight was headed for Manchester, England, when it was notified of the threat near the Bulgarian capital of Sofia. The crew contacted the control tower in Istanbul to seek permission for the landing, state-run Anatolia news agency reported. Authorities quickly evacuated all 378 passengers from the Boeing 777-300ER aircraft after it parked at a remote corner of the International Ataturk Airport, and bomb squads began searching the plane with sniffer dogs, Anatolia reported. PIA spokesman Mashood Tajwar confirmed the flight received a threat and landed. All passengers were safe. A police search turned up no bomb, officials said. Later, a second PIA flight from Islamabad to Kuala Lumpur also received a bomb threat. It landed in Kuala Lumpur and all the passengers disembarked safely, said Tajwar. The U.K.-bound Pakistan International Airlines plane was forced to make an emergency landing at Ataturk Airport in Istanbul after receiving a bomb threat. Malaysia's airports authority said the passengers were being screened and the plane was isolated in a parking area while being searched by police. No bomb was found. It said the plane carried 164 passengers and 13 crew. Azmi Murad, senior general manager for the authority, said the Pakistani airline informed it that the warning came by email. Mr. Tajwar gave no details on the nature of the threat or how it was delivered. Pakistan is home to al Qaeda's top leadership. Militants who trained there have been responsible for many of the attacks and failed plots in the U.S. and Europe since Sept. 11, 2001, when planes hijacked by al Qaeda militants destroyed the World Trade Center in New York and crashed into the Pentagon. The bomb threats came four days before the 10th anniversary of 9/11, but there was no apparent link to Islamist militants, who typically do not alert authorities in advance. The FBI and Homeland Security department issued warnings last weekend about al Qaeda threats to small airlines.

Commentary & Opinion

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From Terror Group Founder To Libyan Rebel Military Commander ABCNews | 29August 2011 The same man who triumphantly led Libyan rebels into Gadhafi's compound last week first came to the attention of the U.S. intelligence community years ago - as a founder of a terror group. Abdelhakim Belhaj, who was recently appointed to Tripoli's rebel military council, was one of the original founders of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, an anti-Gadhafi group which was later designated by the U.S. State Department as a terrorist organization with links to al Qaeda, according to U.S. government reports. "We proudly announce the liberation of Libya and that Libya has become free and that the rule of the tyrant and the era of oppression is behind us," a victorious Belhaj told reporters after the storming of Gadhafi's Bab al-Aziziya compound last week. Ousting Gadhafi had been the main objective of the LIFG since its inception in the early 1990s, even if some of the fighters believed that meant putting Americans in the crossfire. The group carried out operations against the Libyan government including at least four suspected assassination attempts against Gadhafi in the 1990s and was also believed to be connected to a series of suicide bombings in Casablanca, Morocco, in 2003, the U.S. State Department reported. As relations between the U.S. and Gadhafi improved in the mid-2000s, some LIFG leaders cultivated relationships with top al Qaeda leaders including Osama bin Laden and were suspected of funneling fighters to Iraq to carry out operations against U.S. soldiers. When the LIFG was designated a terror organization in 2004, it was meant as a "gesture of solidarity" with the Libyan government, according to a March 2011 congressional report. Contrary to several U.S. government reports, Libyan rebel ambassador to the U.S., Ali Aujali, told ABC News that the LIFG was never connected to al Qaeda and did not carry out terrorist operations. "They were only opposed to Gadhafi during his rule and paid the price for that by being oppressed by the regime," Aujali said. The CIA first publicly voiced its concerns about the connection between the LIFG and al Qaeda in 2004 when then-director George Tenet testified before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and listed the LIFG among groups that represented an "immediate threat... [that] has benefited from al Qaeda links." [Article continues here: http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/terror-group-founder-libyan-rebel-militarycommander/story?id=14405319] Interview With Saudi Sheik Wajdi Al-Ghazawi MemriTV.com Sheik Wajdi al-Ghazawi, owner of al-Fajr TV, criticizes extremist atmosphere in Saudi Arabia and says: after 9/11, "They Handed Out Sweets on the Streets of Mecca" Following are excerpts from a statement by Saudi Sheik Wajdi Al-Ghazawi, owner of Al-Fajr TV, which was posted on YouTube on August 4, 2011: Wajdi Al-Ghazawi: When Al-Qaeda and Osama Bin Laden were at the height of their might, they were extremely popular in Saudi Arabia. From mosque pulpits across Saudi Arabia, preachers would pray for their success. Moreover, from the pulpits of the most important mosques the Al-Haram Mosque in Mecca and the Nabawi Mosque in Al-Madina direct prayers for the success of Al-Qaeda were made, during the days of the bombing of Tora Bora: "Oh Allah, help our brothers in Afghanistan." These supplications were made during evening prayers, as well as Friday prayers. The preachers would pray for them, in violation of the ministry's instructions. When the twin towers in New York were attacked, they handed out sweets on the streets of Mecca. By Allah, they did. I witnessed this myself. The young people bowed in prayer and hugged one

another out of joy. People were in heaven because of these young men, who "destroyed America and bombed this idol." Am I right or not? Was it like that or not? Back then, when the Taliban broke off a piece of the nose of the Buddha statue, which was hewn in the mountain, an entire sermon was dedicated to it in the mosque in Mecca, and the preacher was later reprimanded for this sermon. The entire Saudi people supported and loved Al-Qaeda. This went on until our brothers in Al-Qaeda and I don't know what was going through their minds began to carry out operations inside Saudi Arabia. That's when we all raised our hands, and said: "You've gone too far. We won't support you in this." The atmosphere here in Saudi Arabia is one of extremism. It is characterized by focusing on minor details. Many things are forbidden. Yes, maybe they are indeed forbidden, but by forcing people to avoid them, and by acting as if these were major sins, an atmosphere was created that gave rise to extremist youth, who might act recklessly at the most trivial provocation. For instance, we blew out of proportion the issue of music, the issue of smoking, or the issue of hanging pictures in public places. True, there are clear texts on these issues, but the young people embraced these issues as if they were fighting usury, fornication, or alcohol. No, these are not among the seven major sins. So our society has become extreme. This extremist atmosphere has given rise to people who accuse others of heresy, and people who purport to be waging Jihad. It has created genes that gave rise to cells of Al-Qaeda and other terrorists. We must examine our breeding ground, in which these young men were sown. By Allah, what can possibly emerge from such an atmosphere? Muftis who accuse others of heresy, sheiks who incite, and young people who bomb. Am I right or not? [Complete clip is available here: http://www.memritv.org/clip/en/3099.htm]

Legal Aspects & Lawfare

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Revisiting A Stale Counterterrorism Law Council on Foreign Relations | 1 September 2011 Nearly a decade after 9/11, the United States still relies on the 2001 Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF) for the killing and detention of those considered responsible for or associated with the terrorist attacks. But CFR national security law expert John Bellinger says it is becoming increasingly difficult for the Obama administration to justify some of its counterterrorism operations under this limited statutory authority. It has been used in defense of actions including drone attacks on individuals as well as the targeting of groups in Yemen and Somalia that may have "only the most tenuous affiliation or association" to the 9/11 attack. A revised AUMF should clarify those operations as well as the issue of detention, specifically "which individuals can be detained, for how long, and subject to what processes." There also needs to be greater effort at the international level, he adds, to "fill the gaps in the law that covers conflicts between states and non-state actors [Complete article is available here: http://www.cfr.org/counterterrorism/revisiting-stalecounterterrorism-law/p25742]

Narco-Terrorism
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FARC Step Up Extortion; Multinationals Targeted InsightCrime.org The recent arrest of the FARC's alleged "extortion mastermind" is shows that the guerrillas are intent on expanding a revenue stream which will make Colombia's government very nervous: the extortion of multinational companies, with a special focus on the oil sector.... [Complete article is available here: http://www.insightcrime.org/insight-latest-news/item/1515-farc-stepup-extortion-multinationals-targeted]

Mexico's Cartels Move Into Extortion At a construction site of an apartment building in the heart of the Mexican capital, a company engineer runs through his weekly payroll sheet. He has salaries written out for carpenters, bricklayers and electricians. At the bottom of the sheet is a notation of $200 for security services next to a nickname, El Indio the Indian. ... [Complete article is available here: http://www.tucsonsentinel.com/nationworld/report/090611_mexico_cartels_bribes/mexicos-cartelsmove-into-extortion/]

Seven Die In Mexican Pacific Port City Latin American Herald Tribune Seven people died in separate shootings in Mazatlan, a port city in the northwestern Mexican state of Sinaloa, with some of the incidents drug-related, a police spokesman told Efe. ... [Complete article is available here: http://www.laht.com/article.asp?CategoryId=14091&ArticleId=423061]

Tijuana Violence Slows As One Cartel Takes Control BorderlandBeat.com Mexico's famously seedy border city of Tijuana is enjoying a lull in drug murders as the country's most powerful cartel gains the upper hand over its rivals. ... [Complete article is available here: http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2011/09/tijuana-violence-slows-asone-cartel.html]

Network Notes
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Canadian data, foreign threats: Spying in the digital age (Suggested by a reader in Lithuania thanks!) Globe and Mail | By Colin Freeze, 31 July 2010

A government spy agency thats prohibited from monitoring Canadian citizens is now using information about Canadians to zero in on foreign threats. The ambiguous statement, found in a new government report detailing the activities of Communications Security Establishment Canada, could sanction a range of intelligence-gathering activities including the controversial practice of mining metadata from digital communications. Metadata often called data about data are found in e-mails and their attachments, and contain digital signatures that can reveal when, where and by whom documents were created. The collection of metadata has caused controversy in other countries, but never in Canada, where the Communications Security Establishment Canada operates as an ultra-secretive agency. About the only thing that is known about the classified practices is that they were halted and resumed after some major changes, including directives signed by Defence Minister Peter MacKay. I cannot comment on specific operational activities, Adrian Simpson, a CSEC spokesman, told The Globe. He stressed that reviews upheld that the activities in question were carried out in accordance with the law, ministerial requirements and CSECs policies and procedures. CSEC is prohibited from directing its activities at Canadians, anyone in Canada or Canadians anywhere in the world, he said. For decades, signals-intelligence agencies in the West have been allowed to safeguard national security by eavesdropping on foreigners conversations. Spies can whatever phone lines and satellite signals they can, so long as they never listen in on fellow citizens. But in the digital age, governments run increasingly sophisticated dragnets, scooping up and scouring through millions of intercepted Internet conversations daily. Such practices create legal ambiguities. The whole issue of what constitutes boundaries for signals-intelligence agencies in cyberspace is a big debate right now, said Rafal Rohozinski, a security expert affiliated with the University of Torontos Munk School. A watchdog agency that reviews the CSECs activities released an annual report to Parliament on July 20. When other means have been exhausted, CSEC may use information about Canadians when it has reasonable grounds to believe that using this information may assist in identifying and obtaining foreign intelligence, it reads. Sometimes, collecting metadata is relatively benign. It can involve aggregating sets of data to spot trends, much like the way meteorologists discern national forecasts from localized information. For example, while CSEC cant usually monitor the communications of specific Canadian terror suspects, it can glean insights by zooming out for big-picture patterns. One way to do that, Mr. Rohozinski said, would be to look at data flows between Canadian cities and Yemen, where an Internetsavvy al-Qaeda offshoot works to recruit Westerners.

Metadata, however, can be more revealing. Documents that circulate on the Internet travel around like postmarked letters marked with return addresses e-mails and attachments have embedded codes that speak to the who, where and when behind their creation. The U.S. National Security Agency found itself mired in controversy a few years go, after it skirted domestic-spying bans by secretly upholding that this sort of American metadata was fair game, distinct from communication contents. Theres little to suggest the CSEC would go that far. The federal agencys activities are reviewed by a watchdog body now headed by a former Federal Court of Appeal judge. Robert Dcary, appointed last year, wrote in his annual report that he was satisfied the CSEC activities in question are lawful, even if his predecessors felt them borderline.. This was the first review of these activities since their resumption under new policies, the watchdogs report says. It concludes that the surveillance activities are in accordance with the law and follow major changes to certain policies, procedures and practices. Much of the concern arises from the possibility that CSEC could hand over metadata intelligence to domestic law-enforcement and security agencies. As it stands, the RCMP and CSIS have to develop their domestic investigations before coming to CSEC usually with warrants if they want specific intelligence. The rules guiding handovers are strict because, even though all agencies run surveillance operations, they do so under vastly different mandates and legal standards. The spy agency, however, stood by its practices. CSEC is extremely diligent when it comes to the privacy of Canadians, Mr. Simpson said. [complete article is available here: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/canadian-dataforeign-threats-spying-in-the-digital-age/article2113772/] Cyber Attacks Against NATO, Then And Now New Atlanticist | 6 September 2011 Now that NATOs Operation UNIFIED PROTECTOR over Libya is winding down, it is worth noting how few cyber incidents were directed in protest against the Alliance. Certainly, there was a cyber component to the liberation of Libya, but it was more about content and Internet freedom (the most newsworthy elements here were the role of social media and the Libyan government taking large parts of the nation offline). But compared to past history, NATO cyber defenders had a relatively easy time. NATO has not, however, had an easy 2011. Although there were three significant incidents we know about, none seemed to have been in direct response to operations over Libya [Complete article is available here: http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/cyber-attacks-against-nato-thenand-now] The Calm Before The Storm Foreign Policy | By Joel Brenner, 6 September 2011 Cyberwar is already happening -- and it's about to get much, much worse. A veteran cyberwarrior explains how America can prepare itself. Revelations of wholesale electronic fraud and massive data heists have become weekly, even daily affairs. A multinational electronics corporation loses personal information on more than 100 million customers. Cyberthieves break into an international bank, counterfeit credit balances, and loot ATMs in four countries, grabbing $9 million in just a few hours. International gangs spread malicious code that conscripts unwitting computers into zombie armies of hundreds of thousands of similarly enslaved machines. Criminals then rent these armies, called "botnets," as easily as you can buy a timesharing arrangement in a beach condo. No wonder the vast majority of Internet traffic is spam.

Yet the loss of personal information and related criminal fraud, intolerable as they are, are the least threatening face of electronic insecurity. The U.S. military's secret network is penetrated. Americans' corporate pockets are being picked clean of the intellectual property that makes the United States tick. And the electricity grid that keeps the lights on and makes everything move is dangerously insecure. In one remote attack on the Pentagon's information systems about 10 years ago, the Chinese hauled away up to 20 terabytes of information. If the information had been on paper, they'd have needed a line of moving vans stretching from the Pentagon to freighters docked 50 miles away in Baltimore harbor just to haul it away. Had they done so, the military district of Washington would've become an active theater of operations for the first time since 1865, and the Navy would've blockaded the Chesapeake Bay. But the Chinese did it electronically, so who noticed? Corporate espionage by both competitors and foreign intelligence services or their surrogates is also increasing. Intelligence officials see this but can't speak openly about the specifics, and I'm seeing it now in my law practice. The victims rarely admit it, for understandable reasons. Oracle, which successfully sued SAP for theft of its software code, was a prominent exception. Google was another. When the Chinese penetrated Google in late 2009 -- yes, that operation was Chinese, and yes, it was done with the blessing of a member of the Politburo -- they weren't after customer information. They were after the source code that makes Google unique. Nor was Google the only victim: Thousands of U.S. and Western firms were penetrated in that affair. Foreign governments -- and not only the Chinese -- understand that they cannot compete with the United States militarily and politically if they cannot compete with it economically, so their intelligence services want to steal its corporate intellectual property. This is the technology that gives America its competitive edge, and often it has nothing to do with defense. Ordinary companies with valuable technology are now being targeted by nation-states. This is a new era. National security and economic security have converged. The danger is not limited to the loss of technology and information, however. The owners and operators of the North American electricity grid are hooking up their control systems to the Internet as fast as they can. Exposing the grid to the Internet makes it marginally more efficient, but it also makes it dramatically more vulnerable to disruption. If you can remotely penetrate an electronic system to steal information, you can remotely penetrate it to shut it down or make it go haywire. This is why there is no longer a meaningful difference between information security and operational security. And the biggest operational risk is the grid. In contemporary society, nothing moves without electricity. If the grid goes out, the country stops. As the Stuxnet affair demonstrated, remotely engineered disruption of industrial control systems is now a reality. That episode involved the successful electronic attack on the centrifuges in the Iranian nuclear program. Only a first-class intelligence agency could have pulled that off, but the blueprint for doing it -- the code itself -- is now public. Many American industrial control systems run on the same kind of equipment the Iranians were using, but unlike the controls on the Iranian centrifuges, the controls on the U.S. grid are now being connected to the Internet, making them easier to disrupt. Stuxnet was a watershed; there will be copycats. Other industrial control systems will also be targets. Some already are. Air traffic control, railroad switches, and water and sewage systems are all electronically controlled now, and many are vulnerable. If an intruder can break into the right server electronically, he can remotely shut down production, send your goods to the wrong destination, and even unlock your doors -- and delete your log entries so he leaves no record of ever having been there. The United States does not lack enemies who would attack it this way. Seized al Qaeda computers contain details of U.S. industrial control systems. In 2003, a group affiliated with the Pakistani terrorist organization Lashkar-e-Taiba -- the same gang that engineered the 2008 terrorist assaults in Mumbai -- plotted to attack the Australian grid. Other groups conspired to attack the British grid in 2004, 2006, and 2009. Yet the owners and operators of the North American grid continue willy-

nilly to expose their control systems to the Internet instead of isolating and hardening it. This is folly of a high order. Important conclusions for public and corporate policy follow from this vulnerable state of affairs. First, cyber insecurity has operational consequences. In the current and foreseeable states of technology, a high degree of assurance against electronic penetration of anything connected to the Internet is not achievable. Large, efficient, electronically connected organizations and nations are therefore vulnerable to remotely engineered disruption as well as information theft. Second, this risk cannot be eliminated -- but it can be reduced and managed. As a nation, the United States should start by isolating the grid's controls from the Internet. Undoubtedly, there are marginal efficiencies to be gained by seamless connectivity over a publicly accessible infrastructure, but these gains are usually exaggerated and the risk this connectivity creates is staggering. The government and the major telecommunications carriers must also make the investment required to re-create the massive redundancies that made the wired telephone network so robust. Resilience and swift recovery should be the goal. If the consequences of cyberattacks were reduced, penetration would cease to matter. Third, companies that wait for the government to "solve" their own security problems do so at their peril. The government is broke and the IT backbone is 85 percent private, so the government doesn't control it. The government's role in altering the status quo will be limited to setting standards, using its purchasing power to move vendors toward better security, and getting its own house in order. The government can neither secure corporate intellectual property nor protect firms against operational disruption. Fourth, in a world in which everything cannot be protected, companies must determine for themselves what intellectual property and physical assets to isolate and safeguard. Those that approach this task seriously will quickly learn that technology is only one aspect of their insecurity and, in many cases, the easiest to deal with. Unless technology is integrated with personnel practices and operational security, it opens vulnerabilities that its users rarely understand. This kind of integration requires the automated enforcement of reasonable security policies and systematic workforce training; and that occurs only when management, the lawyers, and the technologists work closely together. This is an oldfashioned management challenge -- not a technological one. For their part, corporate boards need to take IT security seriously and launch audits that examine how their systems are actually implemented and used, not merely how they are designed. Because as the techies like to put it, the weakest link in any system is not the silicon-based unit on the desk; it's the carbon-based unit in the chair. Joel Brenner is author of the forthcoming America the Vulnerable: Inside the New Threat Matrix of Digital Espionage, Crime, and Warfare. He has served as the inspector general of the National Security Agency, the national counterintelligence executive, and the NSA's senior counsel. He now practices law at Cooley LLP in Washington, D.C. Cyberattacks Decline Slightly, Symantec Report Finds Dark Reading | 1 September 2011 Organizations worldwide are suffering damages as a result of cyberattacks, but, interestingly, there has been a slight decline in these attacks during the past 12 months, according to a new report from Symantec. More than 90 percent of the more than 3,300 respondents across 36 countries said they experienced tangible losses as a result of a hack, with 84 percent reporting financial loss to the cost of a breach. Around one-fifth lost at least $195,000 in breaches during the past 12 months. Meanwhile, Symantec attributes the unexpected bright spot of a decline in breaches to organizations employing better cybersecurity defenses: More than 70 percent of organizations saw attacks in the past 12 months, a decline of 5 percent from 2010. And those that experienced an increasing frequency of attacks dropped from 29 percent in 2010 to 21 percent this year. While 100 percent last year reported losses from cyberattacks, 92 percent did so in 2011. The trend seems counterintuitive given the rash of high-profile breaches this year. More

Hackers Steal SSL Certificates for CIA, MI6, Mossad ComputerWorld | 4 September 2011 The tally of digital certificates stolen from a Dutch company in July has exploded to more than 500, including ones for intelligence services like the CIA, the U.K.'s MI6 and Israel's Mossad, a Mozilla developer said Sunday. The confirmed count of fraudulently-issued SSL (secure socket layer) certificates now stands at 531, said Gervase Markham, a Mozilla developer who is part of the team that has been working to modify Firefox to block all sites signed with the purloined certificates. Among the affected domains, said Markham, are those for the CIA, MI6, Mossad, Microsoft, Yahoo, Skype, Facebook, Twitter and Microsoft's Windows Update service. "Now that someone (presumably from Iran) has obtained a legit HTTPS cert for CIA.gov, I wonder if the US gov will pay attention to this mess," Christopher Soghoian, a Washington D.C.-based researcher noted for his work on online privacy, said in a tweet Saturday. [Article continues here: http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9219727/Hackers_steal_SSL_certificates_for_CIA_MI6_Moss ad?taxonomyId=85] DOD Works To Boost Smartphone Security AFPS | 29 August 2011 As the Defense Department seeks innovation made possible by smartphones and other mobile computing platforms, it's also working to ensure DOD users of those devices employ them securely, a defense official said. "Because of the pervasiveness of the [mobile computing] market, everyone has one, everyone wants one, but we often don't look at how the device works - we take it home and start loading pictures on it," Robert E. Young, division chief of outreach and communications for the Defense-wide Information Assurance Program, said during a recent interview with the Pentagon Channel and American Forces Press Service. "We do want this innovation in the Department of Defense so we don't want to say no," he added, "but we want to do it safely and securely. Issues that concern the department, Young said, include the huge memory capacities of some of the new smart devices and users' general lack of knowledge about how smartphones and tablets work and how they could be compromised. "With all the different operating systems out there," Young said, "every patch, every update changes each device and the vulnerabilities within [and users] are going to have to weigh that risk." Young said the department is evaluating how people are really using the devices - whether they're using smartphones to check email or tablets to read memorandums or policies. "What are you doing with the device? Is the camera disabled, are you taking pictures of people? I take a picture of you, I upload it and now you're tagged and all of a sudden everyone knows where you are. So it leads to a digital footprint that connects to the device - anywhere, anytime, any device," he said. "In a split-second it's up and online," he added. "And once on the net - always on the net." Part of the answer is to educate, and raise mobile technology awareness for military members, DOD's civilian workforce and their families, Young said. As part of this effort, he added, the department is taking a cohesive approach to adopting mobile technology. "We have a Commercial Mobile Device Working Group and we take best practices from [the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency], the [Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity] and from our intelligence community partners" and share information, Young said. [Article continues here: http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=65182]

Science and Technology

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"Stealth" Boat Could Revolutionize Naval Warfare NBCDFW | 30 August 2011 A stealth boat that moves through water at high speeds and with near invisibility could revolutionize the Navy's ability to carry out special operations on water. The craft, called The Ghost, moves by generating a layer of gas around submerged surfaces, greatly reducing friction. It's unique design makes it ideal for special operations, according to DiscoveryNews. The ship can reach speeds of 60 miles per hour and has a shape designed to reduce its visibility to radar, similar to the Navy's "Sea Shadow" project of the 1980s. Gregory Sancoff, president and chief executive officer of Juliet Marine, said the U.S. government is interested and his company is working with a defense contractor to build a 150-foot model. The friction reducing gas technology, called supercavitation, works by generating a low-pressure zone around the ship's surface. The Ghost keeps a low radar profile the same way stealth planes do, by making the radar waves bounce off of its surface. Sancoff said The Ghost is ideal for missions close to coasts, such as getting special operations teams into and out of areas quickly. It could also be deployed against pirates and even used to attack on aircraft carriers and destroyers. [Article continues here: http://www.nbcdfw.com/news/tech/Stealth-Boat-Could-Revolutionize-NavalWarfare-128682913.html]

WMD Terrorism
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FARC Step Up Extortion; Multinationals Targeted InsightCrime.org The recent arrest of the FARC's alleged "extortion mastermind" is shows that the guerrillas are intent on expanding a revenue stream which will make Colombia's government very nervous: the extortion of multinational companies, with a special focus on the oil sector. ... [Article continues here: http://www.insightcrime.org/insight-latest-news/item/1515-farc-step-upextortion-multinationals-targeted]

Education
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To Defeat Terrorists, Start Using The Library: Scott Helfstein Scott Helfstein - Aug 30, 2011 The information glut that marks the 21st century is evidenced in some unexpected places. Last month, my organization, the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, released a report that sharply disputed conventional wisdom about terrorism along the Afghanistan-Pakistani frontier. The report argued that the Haqqani Network, a border- spanning tribal group with deep ties to Pakistans government, had been more influential than the Taliban in aiding al-Qaedas rise. How did we support this thesis, which has vast implications for reconciliation efforts in the region as well as for the distribution of U.S. military aid? Not with data culled from clandestine operations in Pakistans tribal areas or from Osama bin Ladens computer hard drive. The report was based on the public statements and writings of individual extremists over the past 30 years. Rather than ferreting out secret information, researchers merely took extremists at their voluminous word.

It seems terrorists, too, are susceptible to the syndrome known as Too Much Information. The revolution in information technology has opened a new vein of intelligence collection and analysis that in many instances can prove more useful than traditional forms of spycraft. In the world of espionage, information and the clandestine means of gathering it are both treasured. Open source intelligence, by contrast, is a commodity with little inherent value. Instead, the capacity to organize and analyze these public streams of information becomes a key asset. This represents a drastic shift, with farreaching implications for intelligence agencies. Google Intelligence In another recent effort , the Combating Terrorism Center used Google Trends -- hardly a cloak-anddagger operation -- to assess the popularity of the Muslim Brotherhood in the midst of the Egyptian uprisings. In the U.S., fears of the Brotherhoods Islamist agenda dominated public discussion. Not so in Egypt , where Google Trends indicated that during the revolution, Internet searches for non-Brotherhood political figures dwarfed those for the Brotherhood. Do such open-source data provide scientific proof of public consciousness? No, but they challenge hard-baked conventional wisdom and provide a corrective to guesswork. By tapping the open source of Google Trends, we threw light on a complex mass phenomenon for which traditional intelligence gathering was ill- suited. Google Trends is just one tool available to open-source analysts, with new information caches constantly emerging. Technological platforms such as search engines and social networks receive a tremendous amount of attention, but they are among a multitude of sources. Newspapers, magazines, blogs, news websites, radio and television interviews can be just as valuable. In 2009, we surveyed Arabic-language news to produce a report on victims of al-Qaeda violence. The results showed that 85 percent of the casualties were citizens of Muslim-majority nations. That simple exercise in data collection and analysis sparked a valuable debate in Muslim countries about the tactics, goals and morality of the terrorist organization. In a battle for hearts and minds, thats a powerful effect. Al-Qaeda spokesman Adam Gadahn took the report seriously enough to respond publicly, defending his organization. Capturing and organizing thousands of Twitter messages or conversation streams from hundreds of social networks requires language competency and the analytical skills to draw conclusions from large unstructured data sources. The report on al-Qaedas violence was coded and analyzed by just three people. Some open-source collection and analysis can be very labor- intensive, though there is an increasing array of technological tools to help. They havent surpassed the capacity of trained individuals, but they do represent a new frontier of intelligence gathering, one that is worthy of investment. Understanding Libya In some cases, open source may be the only means of gathering intelligence, particularly in closed societies where repressive governments rely on networks of informants to cultivate fear and stifle communication. When civil violence broke out in Libya, the intelligence community struggled to keep pace with the complex political cross-currents of secular, Islamic and radical factions. In many cases, the local and international news media became the best real-time information sources. Open-source analysis has its limits. A few years back, a team of mathematical and computer modelers used such data to predict the location of Bin Laden. Their analysis placed him far from his actual compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan. In such tactical and operational matters, secret intelligence plays a far more important role. In the future, however, as digital media, social networking and camera phones proliferate, leveraging open-source channels will grow even more important. U.S. intelligence agencies should reorient their budgets, personnel and operations to properly exploit them. The world is telling us much. Its wise to listen.

Scott Helfstein is director of research for the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point and provides advice on international affairs in the public and private sectors. The opinions expressed are his own and not those of the U.S. Military Academy, the Army or the Department of Defense ) [Complete report is available here: http://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/the-haqqani-nexus-and-the-evolutionof-%20%20Haqqani:%20http://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/the-haqqani-nexus-and-the-evolution-of%20%20http://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/the-haqqani-nexus-and-the-evolution-of-al-qaida. To contact the author of this article: Scott Helfstein at scott.helfstein@gmail.com.]

Events
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Nothing to report today.

Counterterrorism Humor: Who Would Have Guessed?

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FAIR USE NOTICE: All original content and/or articles and graphics in this message are copyrighted, unless specifically noted otherwise. All rights to these copyrighted items are reserved. Articles and graphics have been placed within for educational and discussion purposes only, in compliance with "Fair Use" criteria established in Section 107 of the Copyright Act of 1976. The principle of "Fair Use" was established as law by Section 107 of The Copyright Act of 1976. "Fair Use" legally eliminates the need to obtain permission or pay royalties for the use of previously copyrighted materials if the purposes of display include "criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, and research." Section 107 establishes four criteria for determining whether the use of a work in any particular case qualifies as a "fair use". A work used does not necessarily have to satisfy all four criteria to qualify as an instance of "fair use". Rather, "fair use" is determined by the overall extent to which the cited work does or does not substantially satisfy the criteria in their totality. If you wish to use copyrighted material for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use,' you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml