Tata Motors Result Updated

3QFY2012 Result Update | Automobile
February 15, 2012
Tata Motors
ACCUMULATE
Performance Highlights
CMP
Target Price
Y/E March Consolidated (` cr)

Net sales
OPM (%)
Reported PAT
3QFY12 3QFY11
45,260
15.1
3,406
% chg (yoy)
Angel est.
% diff
44.0
81bp
40.5
42,421
11.8
2,560
6.7
329bp
33.0
31,442
14.3
2,424
Source: Company, Angel Research
Stellar show at JLR drives overall performance: Tata Motors (TTMT) reported an
extremely strong set of results, driven by stellar performance at JLR. The companys
top line grew by robust 44% yoy (25% qoq), led by 41.5% yoy (28.6% qoq) growth in
JLR sales, which were driven by a 36.7% yoy (26.9% qoq) jump in volumes and 3.1%
yoy (0.8% qoq) improvement in net average realization. The companys operating
margin surprised positively and stood at 15.1% on account of better-than-expected
performance at JLR (EBITDA margin at 18.2%), which benefitted from superior
product and geography mix, favorable forex and higher operating leverage. As a
result, net profit increased by strong 40.5% yoy (81.4% qoq) to `3,406cr.
Y/E March Standalone (` cr)
Net sales
OPM (%)
Reported PAT
3QFY12 3QFY11 % chg (yoy) Angel est. % diff

13,338
11,520
15.8
14,242
(6.3)
6.4
10.1
(376)bp
6.2 16bp
174
410
(57.6)
282 (38.4)
Standalone performance under pressure: TTMT posted disappointing standalone

results on account of unfavorable product mix, higher marketing spends in the
passenger vehicle (PV) business and raw-material cost pressures. The top line reported
healthy 15.8% yoy (3% qoq) growth, driven by 21.5% yoy (10% qoq) growth in
volumes. Net average realization, however, declined by 4.8% yoy (6.4% qoq) due to
higher proportion of PVs in the total volume mix. Operating margin continued to be
under stress and declined by 376bp yoy to 6.4%, led by higher marketing spends and
commodity cost pressures. Hence, net profit declined by 57.6% yoy to `174cr.
`286
`308
Investment Period
12 Months
Stock Info
Automobile
Sector
Market Cap (` cr)
90,890
Beta
1.6
52 Week High / Low
292/138
Avg. Daily Volume
1,311,048
Face Value (`)
10
BSE Sensex
18,202
Nifty
5,532
Reuters Code
TAMO.BO
Bloomberg Code
TTMT@IN
Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters
35.0
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
14.9
FII / NRIs / OCBs
42.1
Indian Public / Others
Abs. (%)
Sensex
Tata Motors
8.0
3m
7.8
58.0
1yr
3yr
(0.4)
88.9
15.7 938.8
Outlook and valuation: We have revised our consolidated earnings estimates

upwards by 19.5%/32.4% for FY2012/13 on account of better-than-expected JLR
performance during the quarter. We broadly retain our standalone earnings estimates
and increase our JLR estimates over FY2012/13, driven by the increase in our volume
and EBITDA margin estimates. We have increased JLR volume estimates by ~12% for
FY2013 and margin estimates for JLR by ~100bp in FY2013. At `286, the stock is
trading at 7.4x FY2013E earnings. We maintain Accumulate on the stock with an
SOTP target price of `308.
Key financials (consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr)
Net Sales
% chg
Net Profit
% chg
EBITDA (%)
EPS (`)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY2010
92,519
30.5
1,526
8.4
5.3
53.5
10.0
21.3
8.9
1.2
14.8
FY2011
123,133
33.1
9,065
494.0
13.7
28.6
10.0
4.8
65.8
24.7
0.9
6.6
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
FY2012E
161,482
31.1
10,801
19.2
13.2
34.0
8.4
3.5
47.5
27.9
0.7
5.2
FY2013E
186,930
15.8
12,226
13.2
12.6
38.5
7.4
2.6
40.0
27.9
0.6
4.7
Yaresh Kothari
022-3935 7800 Ext: 6844
yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com
Tata Motors | 3QFY2012 Result Update
Exhibit 1: Quarterly performance (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr)
Net Sales
Consumption of RM
3QFY12
3QFY11
yoy chg (%)
2QFY12
qoq chg (%)
9MFY12
9MFY11
yoy chg (%)
13,338
11,520
15.8
12,954
3.0
38,190
33,185
15.1
25.3
8,075
3.1
23,239
18,427
26.1
60.9
55.5
1.8
1,999
1,672
5.2
5.0
2.5
4,428
5,151
11.6
15.5
6.0
5,832
4,516
15.3
13.6
8,322
6,644
(% of Sales)
62.4
57.7
Staff Costs
695
581
(% of Sales)
Purchases of TG
(% of Sales)
Other Expenses
(% of Sales)
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
5.2
5.0
1,538
1,423
62.3
19.6
683
8.1
1,501
13.4
1,822
5.3
11.6
19.6
(14.0)
11.5
12.4
1,931
1,703
14.5
14.8
12,486
10,351
20.6
12,081
3.4
35,498
29,766
19.3
852
1,168
(27.1)
873
(2.4)
2,691
3,419
(21.3)
14.1
6.4
10.1
7.0
10.3
Interest
186
275
(32.3)
212
(12.3)
651
896
(27.3)
Depreciation
421
337
25.0
387
8.9
1,173
976
20.2
Other Income
PBT (excl. Extr. Items)
Exceptional Items
PBT (incl. Extr. Items)
(% of Sales)
6.7
29.1
25
362.3
57
(56.0)
197
152
29.6
269
562
(52.0)
331
(18.5)
1,064
1,699
(37.4)
83
31
294
(72)
375
93
186
531
(64.9)
37
410.2
689
1,606
(57.1)
1.4
4.6
1.8
4.8
0.3
Provision for Taxation
13
121
(% of PBT)
6.7
22.8
174
410
1.3
3.6
0.8
634.8
633.1
634.8
2.7
6.5
Reported PAT
PATM
Equity capital (cr)
EPS (`)
(89.6)
(57.6)
(57.8)
(66)
(119.1)
12
368
(179.5)
(103.8)
1.7
22.9
102
70.2
677
1,238
1.8
3.7
634.8
633.1
10.7
19.6
1.6
70.2
(96.7)
(45.3)
(45.5)
Exhibit 2: Quarterly volume performance (Standalone)

Y/E March (units)
9MFY12
9MFY11 yoy chg (%)
M&HCV
53,982
50,883
6.1
54,334
(0.6)
157,431
149,616
5.2
LCV
89,636
74,677
20.0
89,960
(0.4)
256,629
201,844
27.1
143,618
125,560
14.4
144,294
(0.5)
414,060
351,460
17.8
13,745
9,472
45.1
12,003
14.5
36,375
29,013
25.4
Total Commercial Vehicles

Utility Vehicles
3QFY12
3QFY11 yoy chg (%)
2QFY12 qoq chg (%)
Cars
69,748
51,841
34.5
50,137
39.1
176,148
186,514
(5.6)
Total Passenger Vehicles
83,493
61,313
36.2
62,140
34.4
212,523
215,527
(1.4)
Exports (Inc Above )
14,135
15,962
(11.4)
16,004
(11.7)
45,025
42,658
5.5
227,111
186,873
21.5
206,434
10.0
626,583
566,987
10.5
Total Sales
Standalone performance under pressure: On a standalone basis, the companys

top line grew by healthy 15.8% yoy (3% qoq) to `13,338cr, driven by 21.5% yoy
(10% qoq) growth in volumes. Volume growth was led by strong 36.2% yoy (34.4%
qoq) growth in PV sales. Net average realization, however, declined by 4.8% yoy
(6.4% qoq) due to higher proportion of PVs in the total volume mix.
February 15, 2012
Operating margin declined substantially by 376bp yoy (35bp qoq) to 6.4% due to
raw-material cost pressures, higher marketing spends in the passenger car
business and higher discounts. As a result, operating profit declined by 27.1% yoy
(2.4% qoq) to `852cr. Reported net profit declined by 57.6% yoy to `174cr, led by
weak operating performance. TTMT reported forex loss of `83.3cr, which included
credit of `208.1cr as per change in accounting standards. Lower tax rate of 6.7%
also boosted standalone profits.
40.0
31.9
100,000
17.4
50,000
30.0
21.6
20.0
12.7
10.0
4.0
6.2
0.0
15.0
13.4
9.3
10.4 9.5
10.0
6.1
(10.0)
Exhibit 5: EBITDA margin dips on input cost pressures
Exhibit 6: Net profit down 57.6% yoy
EBITDA margin
68.9
70.9
71.0
72.9
Raw material cost/sales

70.4
70.9
69.6
74.3
700
70.0
600
60.0
500
50.0
Net profit margin (RHS)
6.0
5.0
4.5
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.6
4.0
3.4
3.0
300
30.0
12.6
9.3
11.1
9.7
10.1
10.0
8.4
8.1
1.3
200
6.7
6.4
0.0
(%)
4.9
400
40.0
100
February 15, 2012
0.0
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
2.0
1.0
0.8
3QFY10
20.0
Net profit (LHS)
(` cr)
74.3
4QFY10
80.0
5.0
(4.8)
(5.0)
(%)
8.2
7.6
0.0
3QFY10
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
16.2
3QFY12
150,000
(%)
20.0
2QFY12
50.0
47.6
yoy growth (RHS)
1QFY12
60.0
Net average realisation/unit
4QFY11
(`)
630,000
620,000
610,000
600,000
590,000
580,000
570,000
560,000
550,000
540,000
530,000
520,000
3QFY11
63.0 55.6
200,000
(%)
70.0
2QFY11
yoy growth (RHS)
250,000
1QFY11
Total volume
(units)
Exhibit 4: Net average down 4.8% yoy
4QFY10
Exhibit 3: Strong volume growth led by PV sales
Exhibit 7: Quarterly performance (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr)
3QFY12
3QFY11 yoy chg (%)
2QFY12 qoq chg (%)
9MFY12
9MFY11 yoy chg (%)
Net Sales
45,260
31,442
44.0
36,198
25.0
114,747
86,841
32.1
Consumption of RM
27,096
17,823
52.0
21,335
27.0
67,772
48,400
40.0
59.9
56.7
59.1
42.2
3,207
2,427
11.9
8,665
6,850
7.6
6.0
3.4
8,296
7,339
7.2
6.4
11.6
14,446
11,906
12.6
10.4
(% of Sales)
Staff Costs
(% of Sales)
Purchase of Goods
(% of Sales)
7.1
7.7
2,899
2,419
58.9
32.2
2,866
19.8
2,804
22.1
4,689
7.9
13.0
6.4
7.7
5,232
4,284
11.6
13.6
38,433
26,953
42.6
31,694
21.3
99,180
74,495
33.1
6,827
4,489
52.1
4,504
51.6
15,567
12,346
26.1
EBITDA margin (%)
15.1
14.3
13.6
14.2
Interest
577
499
15.5
525
9.9
1,868
1,592
17.3
1,616
1,239
30.4
1,331
21.4
4,090
3,345
22.3
24
10
142.7
61
(60.5)
161
64
151.5
4,658
2,760
68.7
2,709
72.0
9,770
7,472
30.7
660
(54)
64.7
2,270
98.0
9,110
7,526
7.9
8.7
Other Expenses
(% of Sales)
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
Depreciation
Other Income
PBT (excl. Extr. Items)
Exceptional Items
PBT (incl. Extr. Items)
(% of Sales)
Provision for Taxation
(% of PBT)
PAT
164
33
4,494
2,728
9.9
8.7
1,071
319
23.8
11.7
7.7
26.5
13.0
12.4
439
6.3
235.9
3,423
2,409
PATM
7.6
7.7
Minority Interest
21
11
93.7
Associate Companies Profit
42.1
21.3
21.0
363
195.0
1,786
928
16.0
49.0
19.6
12.3
1,907
79.5
7,324
6,598
6.4
7.6
58
28
105.9
5.3
34
(37.5)
92.5
11.0
26
(85.5)
(3.5)
17
67
(73.9)
PAT after MI
3,406
2,424
40.5
1,877
81.4
7,283
6,636
9.7
Equity shares (cr)
634.8
633.1
634.8
633.1
Reported EPS (`)
10.7
7.7
22.9
21.0
634.8
40.1
5.9
81.4
9.5
Consolidated performance
Stellar show at JLR drives overall performance: Consolidated top line registered
impressive 44% yoy (25% qoq) growth to `45,260cr, aided by 41.5% yoy (28.6%
qoq) growth in JLR revenue. JLR revenue was driven by a 36.7% yoy (26.9% qoq)
jump in volumes to 86,322units and 3.1% yoy (0.8% qoq) improvement in net
average realization. New launches like Jaguar XF 2.2 and Evoque led to strong
volume performance at JLR during the quarter. Volume growth continued to be
driven by growth in emerging markets, with China and Russia reporting 81% and
34% yoy growth, respectively.
February 15, 2012
Exhibit 8: Net sales up 44% yoy, aided by 41.5% jump in JLR revenue
(` cr)
84.7
Net sales (LHS)
(%)
90.0
Net sales growth (RHS)
80.0
65.0
70.0
60.0
47.1
44.0
36.5
23.7
20.7
24.1
50.0
40.0
25.8
30.0
20.0
10.0
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
0.0
3QFY10
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
On the operating front, margin surprised positively and stood at 15.1%, registering
an 81bp yoy and 264bp qoq expansion. Margin expansion was led by JLR, while
standalone operations continued to be under pressure. JLRs EBITDA margin
expanded strongly by 260bp qoq to 18.2%, benefitting from improving product
and geography mix and favorable currency movement. Reported net profit,
therefore, posted strong 40.5% yoy (81.4% qoq) growth to `3,406cr. During
3QFY2012, there was forex credit of `660.6cr on account of change in accounting
standards (AS-11).
Exhibit 9: EBITDA margin surprises positively

(%)
80.0
70.0
EBITDA margin
67.1
65.2
63.4
64.6
Exhibit 10: Strong net profit growth of 40.5% yoy
64.7
65.2
65.7
67.2
66.4
3,000
50.0
2,500
40.0
2,000
20.0
11.4
10.9
14.2
13.9
14.3
12.5
12.6
12.4
15.1
7.8
3,500
60.0
30.0
Net profit (LHS)
(` cr)
4,000
Raw material cost/sales
1,500
7.4
7.7
Net profit margin (RHS)

7.7
7.5
7.4
(%)
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.2
6.0
5.0
4.0
2.5
3.0
1,000
2.0
February 15, 2012
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
0.0
2QFY11
1QFY11
1.0
0.0
4QFY10
500
3QFY10
10.0
Exhibit 11: Quarterly performance - JLR

Y/E March (GBP mn)
3QFY12
3QFY11
yoy chg (%)
2QFY12
qoq chg (%)
9MFY12
9MFY11
yoy chg (%)
Revenue
3,749
2,650
41.5
2,915
28.6
9,367
7,135
31.3
Raw-material cost
2,386
1,660
43.7
1,902
25.4
6,062
4,446
36.3
Employee expenses
254
196
29.6
235
8.1
699
575
21.6
Other expenditure
427
298
43.3
324
31.8
1,081
909
18.9
Total expenditure
3,067
2,154
42.4
2,461
24.6
7,842
5,930
32.2
81.8
81.3
0.5
84.4
(2.6)
83.7
83.1
0.7
% of sales
EBITDA
682
496
37.5
454
50.2
1,525
1,205
26.6
% of sales
18.2
18.7
(0.5)
15.6
2.6
16.3
16.9
(0.6)
Other income
Product development expense
43
43
34
26.5
103
76
35.5
Depreciation
136
114
19.3
113
20.4
342
299
14.4
EBIT
503
339
48.4
307
63.8
1,080
830
30.1
19
(57.9)
31
(74.2)
60
22
172.7
495
320
54.7
276
79.3
1,019
808
26.1
Interest
PBT (pre-exceptional)
Exceptional item
14
(24.0)
(158.3)
(60.0)
(123.3)
(43.0)
8.0
(637.5)
PBT
509
296
72
216
135.6
976
816
19.6
% of sales
13.6
11.2
2.4
7.4
6.2
10.4
11.4
(1.0)
Taxes
116
1,557.1
44
163.6
191
42
354.8
% of PBT
22.8
2.4
20.4
20.4
2.4
19.6
5.1
14.4
PAT
393
289
36
172
128.5
785
774
1.4
Stellar JLR performance: JLR reported net sales of GBP 3,749mn, up by 41.5% yoy
(28.6% qoq), boosted by strong volume growth of 36.7% yoy and 3% yoy
improvement in net average realization. Gross margin increased by 160bp
sequentially, driven by increased net average realization, superior product mix and
lower raw-material costs.
While according to IFRS, EBITDA margin stood at 18.2%, up 260bp qoq, under
Indian GAAP EBITDA margin came in at 20.1%. This difference is due to GBP60mn
of benefit in Indian GAAP on account of forex losses on debt, which are expensed
under IFRS, while under Indian GAAP they are passed through the balance sheet.
Reported PAT grew by 36% yoy (128.5% qoq) to GBP393mn on better operating
performance and lower interest outgo.
Management expects JLR to sustain its volume traction, led by recent launches like
Evoque and Jaguar XF 2.2 and expanding dealer network and increasing
marketing efforts. During the quarter, Freelander volumes were impacted by shift
in production towards Evoque.
February 15, 2012
Land Rover
65.3
55.1
60
41.9
45.2
42.3
50.7
46.4
52.4
UK
Europe
Russia
China
Others
20
15
40
30
10
11.9
13.2
12.6
13.0
3QFY10
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
10
3QFY12
11.9
2QFY12
14.1
1QFY12
10.9
13.9
4QFY11
13.4
1QFY11
20
North America
4QFY10
50
46.1
('000 units)
25
3QFY11
Jaguar
('000 units)
70
Exhibit 13: JLRs performance Region wise
2QFY11
Exhibit 12: JLRs quarterly performance
Exhibit 14: Performance of subsidiaries

Key Subsidiaries (` cr)
3QFY2012
3QFY2011
Net sales
EBITDA
EBITDAM (%)
Net profit
Net sales
EBITDA
EBITDAM (%)
Net profit
Tata Motor Finance
524
95
18.2
71
332
36
10.9
33
Tata Technologies
439
79
17.9
58
313
39
12.5
28
Tata Daewoo
705
32
4.5
(1)
659
25
3.8
(3)
TML Drivelines
174
106
60.9
61
146
81
55.7
42
1,842
312
16.9
189
1,450
181
12.5
99
Subsidiary Total
Outlook and valuation

We have revised our consolidated earnings estimates upwards by 19.5%/32.4%
for FY2012/13 on account better-than-expected JLR performance during the
quarter. We broadly retain our standalone earnings estimates and increase our JLR
estimates over FY2012/13, driven by the increase in our volume and EBITDA
margin estimates. We have increased JLR volume estimates by ~12% for FY2013
and margin estimates for JLR by ~100bp in FY2013.
Exhibit 15: Change in estimates (consolidated)

Y/E March
Earlier estimates
Revised estimates
% chg
FY2012E
FY2013E
FY2012E
FY2013E
FY2012E
FY2013E
144,712
162,452
161,482
186,930
11.6
15.1
OPM (%)
12.0
11.6
13.2
12.6
114bp
104bp
EPS (`)
28.5
29.1
34.0
38.5
19.5
32.4
Net sales (` cr)
At `286, the stock is trading at 7.4x and 4.7x FY2013E earnings and EV/EBITDA,
respectively. We maintain Accumulate on the stock with an SOTP target price of
`308. We have valued the domestic core business at `67/share, implying 10x
FY2013E earnings. Our embedded value of the subsidiaries and investments in
TTMT's books (including JLR) works out to `241/share. We have valued JLR at 7x
FY2013E earnings, implying a ~30% discount to the average multiple of its peers.
February 15, 2012
Exhibit 16: SOTP valuation

Particulars
Parameter
Value/Share (`)
Standalone
FY2013E (10x P/E)
67
JLR
FY2013E (7x PAT)
223
Key subsidiaries and others
18
Target price
308
Exhibit 17: JLR peer valuation

P/E (x)
P/B (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/Sales (x)
CY12E CY13E CY12E CY13E CY12E CY13E CY12E CY13E

Audi
11.1
9.5
2.1
1.9
2.7
2.4
0.7
0.6
BMW
9.6
9.1
1.5
1.3
7.6
7.5
0.6
0.6
Daimler
9.0
7.9
1.2
1.1
8.6
7.7
0.5
0.4
Volkswagen
6.9
6.1
0.9
0.8
6.1
5.5
0.4
0.3
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Key downside risk to our estimates: Lower-than-expected growth in JLR due to

uncertainty in key markets (Europe, U.K. and U.S.) will negatively affect our volume
growth estimates. Further, softening of domestic interest rates poses an upside risk
to our domestic volume estimates.
Exhibit 18: Angel vs. consensus forecast
Net sales (` cr)
Angel estimates
Consensus
FY12E
FY13E
FY12E
FY13E
FY12E
FY13E
161,482
186,930
153,822
174,617
5.0
7.1
34.0
38.5
32.4
35.3
5.2
9.1
EPS (`)
Variation (%)
Exhibit 19: Key assumptions

Y/E March (units)
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
M&HCV
179,415
122,077
167,829
209,522
219,998
237,598
LCV
173,434
167,834
233,697
287,463
353,579
406,616
Total CV
352,849
289,911
401,526
496,985
573,578
644,214
50,299
39,917
34,124
43,063
52,537
57,791
Cars
179,268
166,920
176,683
192,842
187,057
205,762
Nano
30,353
70,432
70,000
77,000
229,567
206,837
241,160
306,337
309,594
340,553
UV
Total PV
Exports (Inc Above )
Total volume
JLR volume
54,272
31,611
34,141
58,044
63,268
69,595
582,416
496,748
642,686
803,322
883,171
984,767
243,621
306,557
331,082
February 15, 2012
Exhibit 20: One-year forward EV/EBITDA

(` cr)
250,000
EV (` cr)
2x
4x
Exhibit 21: Tata Motors vs. Sensex

6x
8x
Tata Motors
250
Sensex
200
200,000
Feb-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Dec-10
Mar-11
Sep-10
May-10
Feb-10
Oct-09
Jul-09
Mar-09
Sep-08
Dec-08
Feb-08
May-08
Oct-07
Apr-07
Feb-12
May-11
Aug-10
Nov-09
Feb-09
Jun-08
Sep-07
Dec-06
Mar-06
Jun-05
50
Sep-04
50,000
Dec-03
100
Apr-03
100,000
Jul-07
150
150,000
Exhibit 22: Automobile Recommendation summary

CMP Tgt. price
(`)
(`)
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Upside
(%)
FY12E
FY13E
32
9.4
13.3
15.9
795
Company
Reco.
Ashok Leyland
Accumulate
29
Bajaj Auto
Neutral
1,746
Hero MotoCorp
Neutral
2,093
Maruti Suzuki
Neutral
1,304
MM
Accumulate
735
Tata Motors
Accumulate
286
308
TVS Motor
Buy
54
66
RoE (%)
FY11-13E EPS
FY12E
FY13E
FY12E
FY13E
CAGR (%)
10.7
7.0
5.8
14.2
15.9
7.3
14.9
10.8
9.4
55.0
44.7
11.0
17.8
15.5
10.4
8.7
66.2
55.0
21.0
27.2
16.4
18.1
10.0
9.6
14.4
1.1
8.1
16.4
14.5
9.7
8.1
22.8
20.9
8.4
7.6
8.4
7.4
5.2
4.7
47.5
40.0
16.1
23.2
10.0
8.9
5.1
4.2
23.2
22.0
17.6
February 15, 2012
Profit & loss statement (consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr)
Gross sales
Less: Excise duty
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
40,089 74,093 95,567 127,420 167,165 193,510

4,668
3,212
3,048
4,286
5,684
6,579
Net Sales
35,422 70,881 92,519 123,133 161,482 186,930
Total operating income
35,422 70,881 92,519 123,133 161,482 186,930
% chg
10.5
100.1
30.5
33.1
31.1
15.8
Total Expenditure
31,490 69,371 84,747 106,316 140,247 163,302
Net Raw Materials
24,376 48,025 61,495
79,008 104,156 121,505
Other Mfg costs
1,515
2,325
2,954
3,512
5,167
5,982
Personnel
2,745
7,297
8,943
9,343
12,434
14,581
Other
2,854 11,724 11,355
14,453
18,490
21,235
EBITDA
3,932
1,509
7,772
16,817
21,235
23,628
% chg
4.9
(61.6)
414.9
116.4
26.3
11.3
(% of Net Sales)
11.1
2.1
8.4
13.7
13.2
12.6
Depreciation & Amortization
782
2,507
3,887
4,656
5,554
6,357
3,150
(997)
3,885
12,162
15,681
17,271
3.0
213.1
28.9
10.1
EBIT
% chg
(% of Net Sales)
8.9
(1.4)
4.2
9.9
9.7
9.2
Interest & other Charges
913
2,171
2,465
2,385
2,463
2,263
Other Income
619
748
1,058
452
412
485
20.1
(35.1)
30.0
4.3
3.0
3.1
2,856 (2,420)
2,478
10,228
13,630
15,493
312.8
33.3
13.7
(291) (1,045)
(209)
3,523
10,437
13,630
15,493
(% of PBT)
Recurring PBT
% chg
(7.4)
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.)
(230)
PBT (reported)
3,086 (2,129)
Tax
852
336
1,006
1,216
2,794
3,254
(% of PBT)
27.6
(15.8)
28.6
11.7
20.5
21.0
2,235 (2,465)
PAT (reported)
2,517
9,221
10,836
12,240
65
(52)
85
101
50
80
132
(11)
30
49
85
94
PAT after MI (reported)
2,168 (2,505)
2,571
9,274
10,801
12,226
ADJ. PAT
1,937 (2,796)
1,526
9,065
10,801
12,226
% chg
(10.6)
494.0
19.2
13.2
5.5
(3.9)
1.6
7.4
6.7
6.5
11.2
(9.7)
9.0
29.2
34.0
38.5
10.0
(10.9)
5.3
28.6
34.0
38.5
(82.1)
434.1
19.2
13.2
Add: Share of earnings of asso.

Less: Minority interest (MI)
(% of Net Sales)
Basic EPS (`)
Fully Diluted EPS (`)
% chg
February 15, 2012
FY08
10
Balance sheet (consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr)
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
571
635
635
635
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital
386
514
Reserves & Surplus
8,312
5,427
7,827 18,537 25,660 34,186
Shareholders Funds
8,698
5,941
8,398 19,171 26,294 34,821
468
403
Minority Interest
Total Loans
Deferred Tax Liability
Total Liabilities
214
247
247
247
11,585 34,974 35,108 32,791 30,791 28,291

974
680
1,154
1,464
1,464
1,464
21,725 41,998 44,873 53,673 58,796 64,823
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block
6,060 33,269 34,232 39,699 45,252 51,609
Net Block
6,915 25,200 29,590 31,764 40,188 46,184
Capital Work-in-Progress
5,948 10,533
Goodwill
Investments
Current Assets
Cash
Loans & Advances
Other
Current liabilities
Net Current Assets
Mis. Exp. not written off
Total Assets
February 15, 2012
12,976 58,469 63,823 71,463 85,440 97,792
Less: Acc. Depreciation
8,916 11,729 11,107 11,735
566
3,719
3,423
3,585
3,585
3,585
2,666
1,257
2,219
2,544
2,646
2,723
19,244 33,322 42,446 51,035 62,258 69,761

3,833
4,121
8,743 10,948
7,578
6,381
10,056 13,456 15,199 19,139 25,030 28,974

5,355 15,745 18,503 20,948 29,650 34,405
13,621 32,120 41,721 46,984 60,987 69,164
5,623
1,202
725
4,051
1,270
597
86
21,725 41,998 44,873 53,673 58,796 64,823
11
Cash flow statement (consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr)
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
Profit before tax
3,086
(2,129)
3,523
10,437
13,630
15,493
782
2,507
3,887
4,656
5,554
6,357
4,003
4,709
5,099
(1,122)
(589)
(523)
(1,063)
Depreciation
Change in Working Capital
Less: Others
(820)
(3,263) (1,448)
Other income
(619)
(748) (1,058)
(452)
(412)
(485)
Direct taxes paid
(852)
(336) (1,006)
(1,216)
(2,794)
(3,254)
11,240
15,388
17,588
Cash Flow from Operations
739
8,997
(5,983) (50,078) (3,736) (10,453) (13,356) (12,980)
(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments
(1,491)
1,408
(962)
(325)
(102)
(77)
619
748
1,058
452
412
485
Other
Cash Flow from Investing
Issue of Equity
(6,855) (47,922) (3,640) (10,327) (13,045) (12,572)

-
3,958
1,405
4,700
4,283
23,389
135
(2,317)
(2,000)
(2,500)
688
677
365
1,002
3,713
3,713
Other
1,018 (19,448)
3,113
2,094
Cash Flow from Financing
3,953
47,471 (1,209)
1,291
(5,713)
(6,213)
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)
February 15, 2012
5,581
(Inc.)/Dec. in Fixed Assets
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash
2,679
288
4,148
2,205
(3,370)
(1,197)
Opening Cash balances
1,154
3,833
4,121
8,743
10,948
7,578
Closing Cash balances
3,833
4,121
8,743
10,948
7,578
6,381
12
Key ratios
Y/E March
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11 FY12E FY13E
P/E (on FDEPS)
28.5
53.5
10.0
8.4
7.4
P/CEPS
18.3
1762
15.1
6.6
5.6
4.9
P/BV
6.4
12.6
10.0
4.8
3.5
2.6
Dividend yield (%)
1.0
0.4
1.1
1.4
3.5
3.5
Valuation Ratio (x)
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
EV / Total Assets
2.4
1.6
1.2
0.9
0.7
0.6
24.4
79.8
14.8
6.6
5.2
4.7
4.4
2.9
2.6
2.1
1.9
1.7
10.0 (10.9)
5.3
28.6
34.0
38.5
Per Share Data (`)

EPS (Basic)
EPS (fully diluted)
6.8
(9.8)
5.3
31.8
37.9
38.5
15.6
0.2
19.0
43.2
51.5
58.6
3.0
1.2
3.0
4.0
10.0
10.0
27.3
18.4
25.9
60.0
82.4
109.3
EBIT margin
8.9
(1.4)
4.2
9.9
9.7
9.2
Tax retention ratio
0.7
1.2
0.7
0.9
0.8
0.8
Asset turnover (x)
2.4
2.7
2.6
3.3
3.7
3.6
Cash EPS
DPS
Book Value
DuPont Analysis
ROIC (Post-tax)
Cost of Debt (Post Tax)
Leverage (x)
Operating ROE
15.8
(4.5)
7.9
29.1
28.2
26.2
7.0
10.8
5.0
6.2
6.2
6.1
0.6
2.4
3.7
1.6
0.9
0.7
21.1 (40.6)
18.7
65.3
47.5
39.4
Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax)
16.7
(3.1)
8.9
24.7
27.9
27.9
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)
20.7
(2.7)
11.5
30.4
32.4
31.1
ROE
23.6 (38.2)
21.3
65.8
47.5
40.0
Turnover ratios (x)

Asset Turnover (Gross Block)
3.0
2.0
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.0
Inventory / Sales (days)
33
37
44
38
38
41
Receivables (days)
19
18
24
21
23
23
116
123
134
110
110
110
39
(3)
(22)
(22)
(15)
(12)
Payables (days)
Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days)
Solvency ratios (x)
February 15, 2012
Net debt to equity
0.6
5.0
2.9
1.0
0.8
0.6
Net debt to EBITDA
1.3
19.6
3.1
1.1
1.0
0.8
Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest)
3.5
(0.5)
1.6
5.1
6.4
7.6
13
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
Tata Motors
1. Analyst ownership of the stock
No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock
No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock
No
4. Broking relationship with company covered
No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
February 15, 2012
Buy (> 15%)

Reduce (-5% to 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)

Sell (< -15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
14

Tata Motors Result Updated

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3QFY2012 Result Update | Automobile

February 15, 2012

Y/E March Consolidated (` cr)

Source: Company, Angel Research

3QFY12 3QFY11 % chg (yoy) Angel est. % diff

Source: Company, Angel Research

Standalone performance under pressure: TTMT posted disappointing standalone

52 Week High / Low

Avg. Daily Volume

Face Value (`)

Shareholding Pattern (%)

MF / Banks / Indian Fls

FII / NRIs / OCBs

Indian Public / Others

Outlook and valuation: We have revised our consolidated earnings estimates

Key financials (consolidated)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Tata Motors | 3QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 1: Quarterly performance (Standalone)

yoy chg (%)

qoq chg (%)

yoy chg (%)

Provision for Taxation

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: Quarterly volume performance (Standalone)

9MFY11 yoy chg (%)

Total Commercial Vehicles

3QFY11 yoy chg (%)

2QFY12 qoq chg (%)

Total Passenger Vehicles

Exports (Inc Above )

Standalone performance under pressure: On a standalone basis, the companys

February 15, 2012

Tata Motors | 3QFY2012 Result Update

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 5: EBITDA margin dips on input cost pressures

Exhibit 6: Net profit down 57.6% yoy

Raw material cost/sales

Net profit margin (RHS)

February 15, 2012

Source: Company, Angel Research

Net profit (LHS)

Source: Company, Angel Research

yoy growth (RHS)

Net average realisation/unit

yoy growth (RHS)

Exhibit 4: Net average down 4.8% yoy

Exhibit 3: Strong volume growth led by PV sales

Source: Company, Angel Research

Tata Motors | 3QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 7: Quarterly performance (Consolidated)

3QFY11 yoy chg (%)

2QFY12 qoq chg (%)

9MFY11 yoy chg (%)

EBITDA margin (%)

Associate Companies Profit

Equity shares (cr)

Reported EPS (`)

Source: Company, Angel Research

February 15, 2012

Tata Motors | 3QFY2012 Result Update

Net sales (LHS)