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Q4 2011
Ernst & Youngs Oil and Gas Eye index monitors the performance of AIM oil and gas companies on a weekly basis and can be viewed at www.ey.com/uk/ oilandgaseye. Movements and analysis of the index are reported in this quarterly publication. Oil and Gas Eye also provides regular analysis and commentary on activity driving the AIM market. The Oil and Gas Eye index is constructed on the same basis as the major indices with a normal value of 1,000 assigned to the index levels as of 1 January 2004. It is calculated using the top 20 AIMlisted oil and gas shares by market weight, representing around 57% of the total AIM oil and gas universe. Ernst & Young produces a similar index for the mining sector, which can be viewed at www.ey.com/uk/ miningeye. To receive copies of the Oil and Gas Eye, please contact Michael Simpson at +44 020 7951 8870 or email msimpson2@uk.ey.com; to receive copies of the Mining Eye, please contact Olivia Russell at +44 020 7951 5559 or orussell@uk.ey.com.
A positive end to a difficult year, but there are more challenges to come
Ernst & Youngs Oil and Gas Eye index posted a 24% gain in the last quarter of 2011, reflecting drilling successes and several possible takeover transactions. Nonetheless, the index ended 2011 22% lower than at the start of the year, and the outlook for 2012 remains challenging. One oil and gas IPO during the quarter raised just over 1m. Total oil and gas IPO fund-raising in 2011 was 223m, dwarfed by the 1b of secondary fund-raising. This emphasises the importance of continuing market access for the AIM oil and gas universe and, although a significant amount, this was 47% lower than the secondary fund-raising achieved in 2010. Credit markets are tight and continue to suffer under the cloud of the Eurozone debt crisis. Junior oil and gas companies seeking to deliver on exploration and development projects will need to consider a broad range of options in order to meet their funding requirements. Ironically, these difficult funding dynamics could have a positive impact on the index as they are likely to fuel greater corporate transaction activity in 2012. The largely wellcapitalized majors and national oil companies (NOCs) have a significant balance sheet advantage to exploit.
Index value
Ernst & Youngs Oil and Gas Eye index rose by 24% over the fourth quarter of 2011, recovering some of the losses of the previous two quarters. Despite the positive end to 2011, the performance of the index over the year as a whole was disappointing, compared with the strong recovery seen in 2009 and 2010. The Oil and Gas Eye index ended 2011 22% lower, compared with a gain of 47% in 2010. Volatility in global equity markets typically encourages investors toward larger stocks. However, junior oil and gas companies listed on AIM outperformed their larger peers in the final quarter of 2011, underpinned by drilling successes and potential takeover activity. The FTSE 350 Oil and Gas Producers index rose by 18% over the fourth quarter, ending the year 5% higher. Oil and gas companies listed on AIM also outperformed other sectors, with the FTSE AIM All-Share index rising by just 1% in the final three months of 2011 and ending the year 26% lower than the start. During the final quarter of 2011, uncertainty over the future level of oil demand, a relatively mild start to the winter heating season in the Northern hemisphere and a gradual return of production from Libya helped temper oil prices. The average Brent crude price in the fourth quarter was US$109.34 per barrel, almost 4% lower than the average in the previous quarter. The average Brent price in 2011 was US$111.40 per barrel. This is 40% higher than the average for 2010, reflecting the impact of geopolitical tensions and supply uncertainties during 2011. Stronger commodity prices supported investment levels, which returned to pre-recession levels. Global upstream spending is forecast to increase by a further 10% in 2012, suggesting a more positive outlook for oil companies. However, they are not immune to developments in the wider global economy.
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9 0 0 0 11 -11 l-11 -11 10 t-0 an- pr-1 ul-1 ct-1 ant pr -Ju J A O -J Oc -J 1-A 1 1 1 1111FTSE AIM All-Share (rebased)
In the Q1 2011 edition of the Oil and Gas Eye, we talked about the uncertain outlook for the global economy. At the end of the year there is even less clarity about shortterm growth prospects in many major economies. Europes recovery has come to a standstill, with the European Commission (EC) revising down forecasts for growth in the region by more than half. The ECs Autumn Economic Forecast, released in November, predicts GDP growth of 0.6% in the EU and 0.5% in the Euro area in 2012, substantial downgrades to GDP growth rates predicted by the EC in its Spring Economic Forecast. Since that forecast was published in May, the EC has concluded that the outlook has taken a turn for the worse. The Eurozone debt crisis continues to cast a shadow over equity markets despite the fiscal compact agreed upon by European leaders on December 9 to move toward
closer fiscal integration. The lack of a long-term solution to the crisis contributes to an increasing lack of investor appetite for exposure to European risk. Access to debt and equity funding, particularly for the independent oil and gas sector, is now extremely challenging. Just 15 AIM-listed oil and gas companies (13% of the universe) were successful in raising funds in the fourth quarter of 2011. Total secondary fund-raising by AIM-listed oil and gas companies in 2011 was 1,013.1m, 47% lower than the amount raised in 2010. In the face of tightening credit markets, junior oil and gas companies will have to consider a broad range of options in order to meet funding requirements. This situation is likely to result in an increase in transaction activity in 2012 as the largely well-capitalized majors and NOCs exploit their balance sheet advantage.
Oil and gas funds raised as a proportion of total funds raised on AIM
Source: Ernst & Young analysis of AIM market statistics
1,200 45% 40% 1,000 35% Oil and gas funds m 800 30% % of AIM funds 25% 600 20% 400 15% 10% 200 5% 0 0%
Winners in Q4 2011 had successful drilling results or received take over approaches
In October, New World Oil and Gas announced that it had signed two farm-in agreements to acquire working interests in Licenses 1/09 and 2/09 in the Jutland onshore area in southwestern Denmark. The two licenses comprise the Danica Jutland Project, which New World Oil and Gas assumed operatorship of in November. During the quarter, the company also announced that the Belize Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment had formally approved the assignment to a New World Oil and Gas subsidiary of an initial 12.5% working interest in the Blue Creek project located in the Peten Basin in northwest Belize. The share price of the company ended the quarter 94% higher than the start. In early October, it was announced that agreement had been reached on the terms of a recommended acquisition by Premier Oil of EnCore Oil. The acquisition will strengthen Premier Oils position in core areas, including an increased interest in the Catcher field and Cladhan discovery in the North Sea. The share price of EnCore Oil ended the fourth quarter 48% higher. Cove Energy announced in October that the Camarao exploration and appraisal well had found natural gas and confirmed gas reservoir connectivity between Camarao and the previously announced Windjammer and Lagosta discoveries offshore Mozambique. The following month Cove Energy announced that gas had also been discovered at the Barquentine-3 appraisal well and, as a result, the recoverable resource range for the Windjammer, Lagosta, Barquentine and Camarao (WLBC) complex would be upgraded to 15 to 30+ trillion cubic feet of gas. Cove Energy announced in December that it had opened a data room to certain parties who had expressed an interest in Coves participation in the Rovuma Area 1 project offshore Mozambique that contains WLBC and that early-stage discussions with major liquified natural gas (LNG) off-takers in Asia and Europe were taking place. The share price of the company gained 53% over the fourth quarter.
In Q4 2011, 50% of the companies in the AIM oil and gas universe recorded share price gains. The winners in this quarter were those companies that had successful drilling results or those who delivered shareholder value through acceptance of a takeover offer from a larger peer. The potential impact of a single well on smaller companies has long been an attraction for investors into the AIM oil and gas universe. The increasing likelihood of corporate transaction activity is an added incentive. Shares in Petroceltic International increased in price by 109% over the fourth quarter of 2011. In December, Petroceltic announced final flow test results from its AT-9 well at the Ain Tsila field in Algeria, indicating that gas flow rates were among the highest ever achieved from an Ordovician well in Algeria without fracture simulation. The AT-9 well is the third of Petroceltics nine appraisal wells to flow at very high rates and supports the production profile anticipated at field start up. Petroceltic International was one of two companies to enter the Oil and Gas Eye index at the end of the fourth quarter. It was joined by EnCore Oil, although the pending takeover of EnCore may make its entry short-lived. The share price of Dominion Petroleum ended the fourth quarter 97% higher compared with the start of the period. In October, it was announced that agreement had been reached for a recommended offer by Main Market-listed Ophir Energy for Dominion Petroleum. In December, Dominion announced that a majority of its shareholders had approved the deal. Completion of the acquisition remains subject to regulatory approvals .
Performance of the Oil and Gas Eye index and oil price over Q4 2011
Source: Ernst & Young, Thomson Datastream
2,600 2,400 2,200 Index value 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000
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Fifty percent of companies in the AIM oil and gas universe registered a fall in their share price in the fourth quarter, primarily driven by disappointing drilling results. The share price of 3Legs Resources fell 62% during the fourth quarter. In November, the company announced that flow rates from its Warbino LE-1H2 horizontal well in Poland were lower than originally expected. The company added that it believes that the well could benefit from being shut in for an extended period of several months to recover from the fracture stimulation. In November, Argos Resources announced that it had decided not to participate in the current drilling campaign in the North Falkland Basin with the Ocean Guardian rig. The company said that weak capital markets and the restricted availability of the Ocean Guardian rig would not allow a meaningful
Performance of the Oil and Gas Eye index and FTSE 350 Oil & Gas Producers index
Source: Ernst & Young, Thomson Datastream
2,600 2,400
Index value
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On the Main Market, Exillon Energy was the best-performing company in the FTSE 350 Oil and Gas Producers index in the fourth quarter, with its share price rising by 24%. In October, the company announced that its EWSI-43 well had successfully found oil on the southeastern part of the East EWS I field in West Siberia. Later in the quarter, Exillon announced that the ETP III-76 well in the Timan-Pechora region of Russia had also successfully encountered oil. On completion of testing, both wells will be connected to existing production facilities. The share price of Royal Dutch Shell also increased over the fourth quarter. In November, Shell announced that the Iraqi Cabinet had approved an agreement with Shell and Mitsubishi Corporation to form a joint venture to gather natural gas from three major oil fields to meet growing domestic demand and the potential for gas exports in the future. The JV, which will be called Basrah Gas Company, will gather gas that is currently flared because of a lack of infrastructure to collect it. In December, Shell also announced that it had completed the sale of its 30% interest in two oil leases and related facilities in the Niger Delta. The price of London-listed Shell shares was 22% higher by the end of the fourth quarter. UK-based BG Group announced in November that an extended well test had increased the production potential of the Carioca discovery located in the Santos Basin offshore Brazil. The following month, the company announced that it had reached an agreement with the Republic of Kazakhstan and the contracting companies in the Karachaganak gas-condensate field in northwest Kazakhstan that will support the further development of the field. The agreement, effective from 30 June 2012 on satisfaction of conditions precedent,
involves Kazakhstans KazMunaiGas (KMG) acquiring a 10% interest in the project. This will be done by each of the contracting companies transferring 10% of their rights and interest in the Karachaganak Final Production Sharing Agreement (FPSA) to KMG. BGs share price rose by almost 11% over the fourth quarter. Heritage Oil was one of four Main Market oil and gas companies that suffered a fall in their share price over the fourth quarter. In November, Heritage Oil provided an update on its tax dispute with the Government of Uganda in response to the ruling of the Tax Appeals Tribunal in Uganda dismissing the application of its wholly owned subsidiary, Heritage Oil & Gas Limited. HOGL had challenged the Ugandan tax assessment on the disposal of HOGLs entire interests in Blocks 1 and 3A to Tullow Uganda Limited in July 2010. HOGL intends to appeal the ruling. International arbitration proceedings, which HOGL commenced against the Ugandan Government in May 2011, are ongoing in London. By the end of the quarter, Heritage Oils share price was 17% lower.
In December, Soco International announced that the Makouala Marine 1 exploration well located in the Congo Basin offshore the Republic of Congo (Brazzaville) had encountered hydrocarbons. However, the reservoir sands at the location were not as well-developed as predicted and there was insufficient overall pay thickness for commercial flow rates. The share price of Soco International fell by almost 11% over the quarter. Cairn Energy also experienced some exploration disappointments in the fourth quarter. In November, the company announced that the first phase of the companys exploration program in Greenland had encountered oil and gas shows across multiple basins, but no commercial discovery has yet been made. By the end of 2011, Cairn had drilled eight of the 14 wells drilled offshore Greenland since the 1970s. The company is undertaking further evaluation of its exploration program over the last two years against a backdrop of active farm-out discussions over certain areas for future exploration in Greenland. By the end of the quarter, Cairn Energys share price was more than 5% lower.
Share price movements of FTSE 350 oil and gas producers over Q4 2011
Source: Thomson Datastream
Soco International
Heritage Oil
Salamander Energy
Exillon Energy
Essar Energy
Ophir Energy
Cairn Energy
BG Group
Tullow Oil
Afren
Premier Oil
BP
Enquest
-40%
The AIM oil and gas universe (including oilfield services companies) stood 117 strong at the end of Q4 2011, compared with 112 at the end of the third quarter and 99 at the start of 2011. The increase in the fourth quarter reflects the admission of three new companies to trading on AIM and the lifting of temporary suspensions of two companies. In the only oil and gas IPO of the quarter, Magnolia Petroleum raised 1.2m (before expenses) from its listing on AIM in November. The company, which was founded in 2008, is focused on oil and gas development in North Dakota and Oklahoma. Shares in Wentworth Resources were admitted to trading on AIM in October following an introduction. The company has interests in three adjacent East African hydrocarbon concessions in Tanzania and Mozambique and also has interests in midstream and downstream assets in Tanzania, including the Mtwara power plant. Jupiter Energy was the second company to be introduced to AIM in the fourth quarter, and its shares began trading on AIM in
November. The company, which owns 100% of Block 31 located in the Mangistau Basin in Kazakhstan, has a primary listing on the Australian Stock Exchange. The temporary suspension of trading in shares in Baltic Oil Terminals was lifted on 15 December following publication of the companys annual audited accounts and semiannual report. In September, IGas Energy announced the temporary suspension of the trading in its shares on AIM following the signing of a sale and purchase agreement for the acquisition of Star Energy from PETRONAS. This suspension was lifted on 23 November after IGas Energy published an admission document giving details of the proposed acquisition. IGas Energy announced in December that it had completed the acquisition of Star Energy Group. The funds raised from new issues on AIM by oil and gas companies in 2011 totaled a modest 223.1m, which was nonetheless 69% higher than the amount raised in the previous year. The annual picture masks a
declining trend, with the 1.2m raised from new issues during the fourth quarter being significantly lower than amounts raised in each of the first three quarters of 2011. There were six IPOs across other sectors on Londons junior market in the fourth quarter. Funds raised from new issues by all companies listed on AIM were 77.3m in the final quarter of 2011, which was 72% lower than the amount raised in the third quarter.
AIM
New issues 2011 total Q4 2011 Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q1 2011 2010 total Q4 2010 Q3 2010 Q2 2010 Q1 2010 223.1 1.2 93.4 65.5 63.0 131.9 103.9 22.0 0.0 6.0 Further issues 1,013.1 265.8 168.7 268.6 309.9 1,902.7 927.1 326.2 467.0 182.3
Main Market
New issues 234.7 0.0 234.7 0.0 0.0 1,271.7 0.0 0.0 1,271.7 0.0 Further issues 457.0 0.0 203.9 233.1 20.0 1,092.9 6.8 0.0 21.3 1,064.8
Note: New issues include placings, introductions, transfers and readmissions (money-raising and non-money-raising).
Q3 2011
Energy XXI (Bermuda) Ltd Indus Gas Ltd Bankers Petroleum Ltd Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd Green Dragon Gas Ltd Bowleven Plc Rockhopper Exploration Plc Coastal Energy Company Cove Energy Plc Faroe Petroleum Plc Ithaca Energy Inc. Chariot Oil & Gas Ltd Jubilant Energy N.V. Aurelian Oil & Gas Plc Nautical Petroleum Plc Geopark Holdings Ltd Range Resources Ltd Gulfsands Petroleum Plc Petroceltic International Plc Valiant Petroleum Plc
MV m
1,518 1,326 1,088 1,056 900 724 694 575 477 342 340 335 283 282 275 269 260 258 233 233
Q4 2011
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd Indus Gas Ltd Energy XXI (Bermuda) Ltd Green Dragon Gas Ltd Coastal Energy Company Bankers Petroleum Ltd Rockhopper Exploration Plc Cove Energy Plc Faroe Petroleum Plc Ithaca Energy Inc. Nautical Petroleum Plc Xcite Energy Ltd Chariot Oil & Gas Ltd Gulfsands Petroleum Plc Geopark Holdings Ltd Bowleven Plc Borders & Southern Petroleum Plc Valiant Petroleum Plc Range Resources Ltd Jubilant Energy N.V.
MV m
1,236 1,139 1,080 741 680 551 499 372 310 264 249 238 228 224 205 203 196 187 172 160
Q1 2012
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd Energy XXI (Bermuda) Ltd Indus Gas Ltd Coastal Energy Company Rockhopper Exploration Plc Green Dragon Gas Ltd Bankers Petroleum Ltd Cove Energy Plc Ithaca Energy Inc. Faroe Petroleum Plc Borders & Southern Petroleum Plc EnCore Oil Plc Nautical Petroleum Plc Gulfsands Petroleum Plc Bowleven Plc Petroceltic International Plc Chariot Oil & Gas Ltd Geopark Holdings Ltd Valiant Petroleum Plc Xcite Energy Ltd
MV m
1,623 1,452 1,308 1,069 768 734 674 570 351 329 272 231 225 218 198 197 194 187 179 170
Exits EnCore Oil Plc Petro Matad Ltd Xcite Energy Ltd
Entrants Petroceltic International Plc Range Resources Ltd Valiant Petroleum Plc
Q4 2011 Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q1 2011 Q4 2010 Q3 2010 Q2 2010 Q1 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001
Further issues
3 8 2 2 2 1 0 1 0 13 17 28 38 20 5 6 3
Oil and gas No. of companies/issues
1.21 93.4 65.5 63.0 103.9 22.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 190.4 233.8 287.5 470.6 374.0 27.8 29.1 1.0
Oil and gas Funds raised (m)
77.3 271.3 182.9 76.5 541.3 290.6 144.6 237.4 740.4 1,079.4 6,828.6 9,908.6 6,460.8 2,776.0 1,095.4 490.1 593.1
All AIM Funds raised (m)
17.6% 24.2% 8.7% 13.3% 5.7% 3.2% 0.0% 7.1% 0.0% 11.3% 6.0% 6.1% 7.3% 5.6% 3.1% 3.7% 1.7%
Oil and gas as % of all AIM No. of companies/issues
1.6% 34.4% 35.8% 82.3% 19.2% 7.6% 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 17.6% 3.4% 2.9% 7.3% 13.5% 2.5% 5.9% 0.2%
Oil and gas as % of all AIM Funds raised
Q4 2011 Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q1 2011 Q4 2010 Q3 2010 Q2 2010 Q1 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 Total issues Q4 2011 Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q1 2011 Q4 2010 Q3 2010 Q2 2010 Q1 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001
265.8 168.7 268.6 309.9 927.1 326.2 467.0 180.6 1,125.2 693.1 858.6 1,262.3 527.0 328.9 193.4 22.7 8.3
Oil and gas Funds raised (m)
548 485 588 753 741 594 679 580 2,596 3,148 3,904 3,389 2,506 2,024 1,473 1,126 1,026
All AIM No. of companies/issues
758.8 413.8 954.0 1,600.6 2,557.1 982.4 1,404.3 694.0 4,771.2 3,214.5 9,610.2 5,734.3 2,481.2 1,880.3 999.7 485.8 535.3
All AIM Funds raised (m)
20.8% 15.9% 10.4% 13.5% 16.3% 9.8% 9.1% 11.7% 10.1% 7.6% 7.4% 7.7% 7.4% 7.1% 5.4% 6.0% 3.8%
Oil and gas as % of all AIM No. of companies/issues
35.0% 40.8% 28.2% 19.4% 36.3% 33.2% 33.3% 26.0% 23.6% 21.6% 8.9% 22.0% 21.2% 17.5% 19.3% 4.7% 1.6%
Oil and gas as % of all AIM Funds raised
267.0 262.1 334.1 372.9 1,031.0 348.2 467.0 186.6 1,125.2 883.5 1,092.5 1,549.8 997.6 702.9 221.2 51.8 9.3
565 518 611 768 776 625 697 594 2,631 3,263 4,188 3,851 3,025 2,380 1,636 1,287 1,203
836.1 685.2 1,136.9 1,677.1 3,098.4 1,273.0 1,548.9 931.4 5,511.7 4293.9 16,423.7 15,642.9 8,942.4 4,656.2 2,095.2 975.8 1,128.4
20.7% 16.4% 10.3% 13.5% 15.9% 9.4% 8.9% 11.6% 10.0% 7.7% 7.3% 7.5% 7.4% 6.9% 5.2% 5.7% 3.5%
31.9% 38.3% 29.4% 22.2% 33.3% 27.4% 30.2% 20.0% 20.4% 20.6% 6.7% 9.9% 11.2% 15.1% 10.6% 5.3% 0.8%
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Ernst & Young LLP 2011. All rights reserved. The UK rm Ernst & Young LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC300001 and is a member rm of Ernst & Young Global Limited.
Other recent Ernst & Young oil and gas publications are detailed below. Publications can be viewed and downloaded at www.ey.com/oilandgas, or contact Michael Simpson at msimpson2@uk.ey.com for copies.
Available now
Oil and Gas Eye Q4 2011 Oil and Gas Eye Q3 2011
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Other recent Ernst & Young oil and gas publications are detailed below. Publications can be viewed and downloaded at www.ey.com/oilandgas, or contact Michael Simpson at msimpson2@uk.ey.com for copies.
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