SBB Briefing 2 Feb 12

Thurs day, 2 Feb 12
Santosh Rinku
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Dis play by region
HRC import prices ris ing in SE As ia, albeit s lowly $ S.Europe s crap s oftens , s ources s ee more price falls ahead $ Japanes e s crap export prices weaken further $ Brazil's CSN buys German s ection mill for 482.5m US longs price increas es face falling s crap price pres s ure $ SBB Steel News Update N. America 23 Jan 2012 More videos link >>
Asia Flat Products

Chines e mills expected to increas e HRC oers to Korea $ Market cool on Shagang's HRC price increas e $ Pakis tan ats prices increas e on weakening rupee $
Exchange rates
Long Products
North China billet prices continue to dip $ Chines e mills keep early-February rebar/rod prices s table $
2 Feb 2012 currency rate +/GBP/USD 1.585 +0.007 EUR/USD 1.318 -0.000 EUR/GBP 0.831 -0.004 EUR/JPY 100.3 -0.340 GBP/JPY 120.7 +0.156 USD/JPY 76.12 -0.252 USD/RMB 6.306 -0.002
Tubes & Pipes

China s ees s eamles s exports up 28% in 2011
Stainless & Specialty Steels

China's s tainles s at product exports fall 21% in December
Raw Materials & Scrap

Indian IO s candal: Karnataka miners braced for output drop Chinas iron ore imports from India s lump 25% in 2011 China's s crap imports grew 16% in 2011 China opting for chrome ore over FeCr: Macquarie Vale to commis s ion Subic Bay oating terminal in February?
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W orld price W orld HRC $/t W orld Rebar $/t Indexes SBB W orld Europe Flat Europe Long As ia Flat As ia Long N.America Flat N.America Long
+/708 +11 717 +8 251 174 235 206 321 225 260 +6 +6 +2 +1 +1 0 +6
Corporate & Industry

Japan eyes Jan-Mar s teel output ris e, fears higher s tocks Chinas Jan PMI recovers but s teel indus try unmoved Japanes e mills bemoan s urge in s teel imports in 2011 India's JSPL eyes s take in Odis ha's Gopalpur port
Europe Flat Products

Turkis h s heet prices at, trade weak $ US Steel Kos ice targets 4 million s hort tonnes in 2012 Ruukki aims at improving protability at 80% capacity UK Mir Steel faces court cas e over hot s trip mill owners hip Serbian s tate keeps Smederevo open, looks for inves tors
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Long Products
Turkis h mills open March oers , s ome Feb s till available $
Stainless & Specialty Steels

European s tainles s bar market enjoys renewed energy $ Outokumpu/Inoxum tie-up to create larges t s tainles s producer Outokumpu to cut 1,000 jobs as ceo s eeks to s tem los s es Sandvik Q4 prot dis appoints market, lowers growth

Black Sea s crap ves s el s inks en route to Izmir, reports Outokumpu to double ferrochrome capacity by 2015

French output up by 2.4% in 2011, not far from expectation Italian third country imports up 12.8% in 2011
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CIS Stainless & Specialty Steels

Special s teel maker Z latous t res tores production

ENRC produces les s ferro-alloys ENRC mines , s ells les s iron ore due to end-year repairs

UGMK s ees s olid dis tribution growth in Ukraine in 2012
North America Flat Products

South African plate oers to the US creating interes t $ US CRC lead times move toward 8 weeks , others mos tly s tatic Goldman Sachs rais es NA auto output es timate

US manufacturing index, new orders climb in January Canadian manufacturing index momentum s lows
Thursday, 2 Feb 12
Steel Business Brieng 2012
1/21
South America Long Products

Siemens to modernize two bar mills for Gerdau in Colombia Grupo Aon s eeks R$100m credit deal for Brazilian mill

Centaurus Metals s trengthens Brazil management team
Africa Raw Materials & Scrap

W eaker market reduces Merafes ferro-chrome output
Australasia Raw Materials & Scrap

Flat output, higher prices for Xs trata's Aus tralian met coal $ Indo Mines gets environmental approval for Java iron project IMX magnetite jv with Taifeng could be s alvaged
W orld Raw Materials & Scrap

Capes ize freight rates s craping bottom amid cargo lull $ = Steel Price Story
HRC import prices rising in SE Asia, albeit slowly

Chinese mill oers of 3mm thick commercial quality SS400B hot rolled coil to Southeast Asia are at $620630/tonne fob ($640-660/t cfr) this week, but there are no takers yet, Chinese trading sources tell Steel Business Brieng. "The market just opened this week (after the holidays). Buyers want to observe the market carefully," a Chinese trader says. "Prices are going up. But they will be slower than mills expect," another adds. He believes buyers are monitoring sentiment for their downstream steel products. "It will be clearer next week when the markets return to normal activity . Bookings in Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia and Thailand, have recently taken place for small quantities at $670-680/t cfr for thin guage re-rolling grade HRC from Korea and Japan, up by $20-30/t from previous bookings. Many regional importers continue to be in wait-and-see mode, trading sources suggest. "Buyers are not wholly accepting higher prices. However, prices will not go down further because the mills cannot aord to sell at lower levels," a T aiwanese trader says. "Booking prices for at steel products are improving while those for long products are still under some pressure," a Hong Kong trader says. "HRC prices have stabilized but we have to wait to see if there is a pick-up," another regional trader adds.
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S.Europe scrap softens, sources see more price falls ahead

Southern European scrap prices went down by 10/tonne following the international downturn and weak domestic fundamentals, with sentiment for prices to soften further over the coming weeks, Steel Business Brieng learns from market sources. Current transaction prices in Italy for grade E3 (heavy melting) scrap are reported to be 320/t ($422/t), for E8 (new arising) around 350/t, and for E40 (shredded) 330-340/t. In Spain, transaction prices are reported to be a little lower than Italian prices. For E8, prices are at 320325/t, while E40 is available at 305-310/t and E1 (the equivalent in Spain of E3) at 300/t. All delivered to mill. In T urkey, scrap prices went down a lot because demand for semi-nished products is still weak. Some Italian domestic buyers will not mind to push raw materials prices down to the level of settlements at the beginning of December, an Italian trader says. However, the current wintry conditions could disrupt deliveries and support prices if they continue, he adds. W expect another decrease of 10/t. But lets see because winter is stronger and collection is harder e than before. I think that we will see an inversion of trend with prices that will increase again in March when mills will re-start to produce more following the need of the constructor sector that is usually better in spring, a Spanish dealer says. Scrap availability in the domestic market is limited at the moment, but Spanish mills demand is also low.
Thursday, 2 Feb 12
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Japanese scrap export prices weaken further

Japanese scrap export prices to Korea continue to fall, but traders believe the market could turn soon, they tell Steel Business Brieng. The most recent bookings took place at around 30,500-31,000/tonne ($399-405/t) fob for Japanese grade H2 scrap for March shipment, down 500-1,000/t ($6.5-13/t) from two weeks ago, a mini-mill source in Seoul says. Hyundai Steels bidding prices for H2 late last week were 30,000/t fob. However, traders are reluctant to make new oers to Korean mini-mills as they feel prices could recover soon, one source says. They expect strong demand from local mini-mills ahead of 1 April when T okyo Electric Power Company will raise its charges for heavy power consumers. Moreover, export restrictions on scrap from far east Russia, which take eect 13 February, will cause Koreans to increase their purchases of Japanese scrap, SBB's sources suggest. Japanese scrap export prices may strengthen in the short-term but increments in prices will be limited, another Korean source says. US scrap export prices are weakening and Korean domestic scrap buying prices remain soft for the time being, he adds. Korean steelmaker SeAH Besteel will cut its scrap buying prices by KRW 10,000-15,000/t ($8.5-13/t) from 4 February More mini-mills led by Hyundai plan to slash their scrap buying prices by similar margins from . next week onwards, SBB hears.
Brazil's CSN buys German section mill for 482.5m

Brazilian steelmaker CSN has bought the German structurals mill Stahlwerk Thringen (SWT) from Spain's Alfonso Gallardo group in a 482.5m ($632m) deal, CSN tells Steel Business Brieng. The sale includes the 1.1m tonnes/year Unterwellenborn-based steelworks and its sales and distribution arm Gallardo Sections. The deal would reduce company debt by 485m and secure the future of the group, Gallardo said. CSN was formerly involved in buyout talks for the assets with Gallardo and agreed to buy the German mill plus other assets in Spain, before withdrawing from the 970m deal last year. CSNs only European steel operations at present are a cold rolling and coil-coating business in Portugal. Gallardo will continue producing sections at its Jerez de Los Caballeros mill, a company spokeswoman says. Gallardos ats re-rolling mill, Galvacolor, valued at 125m earlier last year, is still for sale. "W got the jewel in the crown," says Juarez Saliba, executive director of new business mergers and e acquisitions at CSN. He explained that negotiations with Gallardo were resumed in late October and focused specically on the two German assets. According to Saliba, the SWT is focused on Germany and Eastern Europe, which are in a better situation because of the crisis in the Eurozone. "The plant is running at 80% of installed capacity," he added. According to the CSN, the asset has a greater diversication of business that the competition, serving not only non-residential construction, but also focused in the areas of industrial equipment, engineering and transportation.
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US longs price increases face falling scrap price pressure

US longs mills began announcing price increases for February deliveries a few weeks ago, but scrap prices have softened since then, calling the mill increases into question. Many market players have aknowledged $30/short ton price increases on structurals and wire rod and a $15 increase on rebar, but some are unsure the price hikes will stick, particularly for wide ange beams. They got the increase of $30 through weeks ago, but that number is a joke, nobody is paying that ($870/s.t), one service center source says about WF beams. W are paying under $800 a ton." e A trader tells Steel Business Brieng that beam mills arent adhering to list prices, and hes sure prices did not go up the full amount that was announced. T wire rod buyers say theyre paying the $30 increase for February shipments. One said hes paying a wo little under $800/s.t for mesh quality rod, while the other said hes paying a price within the range of $790810/s.t for the same material. A wire rod trader, however, believes falling scrap prices and arriving imports attened February wire rod prices. Meanwhile, two service center sources and a mill source said the $30 merchant bar has gone on the books. One of the distributors says hes buying MBQ for close to the new list price with a little discounting Thursday, 2 Feb 12 Steel Business Brieng 2012 3/21
books. One of the distributors says hes buying MBQ for close to the new list price with a little discounting maybe $10-20 o. Rebar seems to be holding its more modest $15/s.t increase.
Chinese mills expected to increase HRC oers to Korea

Chinese steelmakers are likely to increase their new hot rolled coil export oer prices for April shipments, up by a minimum of $5-10/tonne from the previous month. Most mills have resumed work this week but new oers are limited because they are closely monitoring the market trend before deciding on new oer prices. Chinas Benxi Iron & Steel has quoted its export oers at $625-630/t fob for commodity grade HRC for April delivery, about $5/t higher than prices tabled before the Chinese New Y ear holiday, a Shanghai-based trader tells Steel Business Brieng. Other than Benxi's oer, we havent heard from the other Chinese mills this week. W believe the other mills will actively place their new oers from next week. e While Chinese mills will try to lift export prices by $5-10/t for April/May shipments on strengthening domestic prices, it is doubtful foreign buyers will accept higher prices, another Chinese trader believes. Demand in downstream steel industries is still sluggish, he explains. Given the regional market was about to close for lunar new year, Chinese mills quickly concluded their March shipment deals ahead of the holiday and contract prices were heard at around $630-640/t cfr Korea for commodity grade HRC. Some bookings were done slightly lower than these levels to Korea, another trader tells SBB.
Market cool on Shagang's HRC price increase

Eastern Chinese steel producer Shagang released its February at product list prices yesterday, increasing its hot rolled coil prices RMB 40/tonne ($6.30/t) and rolling over plate prices from January . After the adjustment, its Q235 5.5mm HRC price is tabled at RMB 4,300/t ($682/t) and its Q235 14-20mm commercial plate price remains unchanged at RMB 4,270/t. Both prices include 17% VAT . Although traders were hoping higher mill list prices could help drive up spot prices, sluggish buying continues to hinder any strong price rebound. Oers of Q235 5.5mm HRC and Q235 14-20mm plate in Shanghai, the nearest major steel market to Shagang, are around RMB 4,250-4,270/t and RMB 4,250-4,280/t with VAT These prices are about RMB 10. 20/t higher than before the holidays but unchanged since T uesday due to lack of buying interest. T raders expect that higher March list prices from major mills will serve as some encouragement for the spot market, but again may not be enough to ensure a strong increase. They are worried demand from the manufacturing sector will remain poor at least for the rst quarter: a recovery in the sector depends on more monetary loosening measures, which did not materialise as expected last month. Most traders contacted by Steel Business Brieng believe spot HRC and plate prices will stay rm this week, and possibly next, because inventories are still low. However, they say that it is dicult to predict the market trend beyond that once people have replenished as nobody is sure when end user demand will return.
The Chinese domestic HRC/plate prices RMB/tonne Incl. 17% VAT Excl. 17% VAT Shagang HRC Shagang plate Shanghai HRC Shanghai plate 4,300 4,270 4,250-4,270 4,250-4,280 3,675 3,650 3,632-3,650 3,632-3,658 [back to top]
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Pakistan ats prices increase on weakening rupee

Pakistans sole private sector ats producer International Steel Limited (ISL) has increased its cold rolled coil and hot dip galvanized coil prices by $10/tonne. Local demand is not particularly strong, but the market has accepted the hike nonetheless, as the producers input costs have increased. Meanwhile, state-owned Pakistan Steel is working at below 30% capacity . ISL is now selling 1mm thick HDG with 100-120gr coating at $1,110/t, including 19.5% sales tax. The companys 1mm thick CRC is sold at $870-890/t before tax, similar to Pakistan Steels price levels. An ISL executive notes that prime material hot rolled coil import prices are now no less than $775-800/t cfr, including tax, making CRC and HDG price hikes inevitable.
Thursday, 2 Feb 12 Steel Business Brieng 2012 4/21
Demand in Pakistan is weak; however, as economic activity is slow and the rupee is losing value against the dollar, sources tell Steel Business Brieng. The rupee has fallen to 90 per US dollar from 84 in November 2011. This situation is unlikely to change before April, by which point stock levels will have depleted following negligible buying activity throughout February and March, sources add.
North China billet prices continue to dip

Billet prices in north China remain soft and transactions slow following the long Chinese New Y ear holiday break, mill sources in the region say But enquiries are growing and some producers are predicting a price . increase later this week, Steel Business Brieng hears. In Hebei provinces T angshan city, ex-works prices for 150x150mm Q235 billet from major mills dipped further by RMB 10/tonne on T uesday evening and nally settled at RMB 3,660/t ($580/t). Prices continued to weaken by the same margin on W ednesday morning, reaching RMB 3,650/t ($579/t) on a cash-payment basis with 17% VAT . Billet prices lack [sucient] support to hold steady on thin trading, a billet maker in T angshan explains. Besides, the continuous decline in futures prices has also aected market sentiment. The May rebar contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at RMB 4,285/t ($679/t) on W ednesday, down nearly 0.3% from the previous days close. Meanwhile, some billet makers report an increase in numbers of enquiries from buyers. There could be a pick-up in prices at the end of this week as more customers return to the market, another local billet maker predicts. However, a Tianjin-based market observer argues that prices are more likely to remain weak in the shortterm since most traders and end-users are still adopting a wait-and-see attitude.
N.China 150x150mm Q235 billet prices SBB 2012 RMB/tonne 17% VAT incl. Tangs han 3,650 17% VAT excl. 3,120 [back to top]
Chinese mills keep early-February rebar/rod prices stable

Faced with slow post-holiday market activity after the week-long Chinese New Y ear break, leading Chinese steelmakers Shagang Group and Hebei Iron and Steel (Hegang) yesterday announced they would retain rebar and wire rod prices for early-February delivery . Eastern Chinas Shagang Group is keeping its 16-25mm HRB335 rebar price unchanged at RMB 4,380/tonne ($695/t) with 17% VAT The steelmaker is also keeping its 6.5mm Q235 wire rod price . unchanged at RMB 4,400/t ($698/t) with VAT . Other major longs producers in Shagangs eastern region, such as Zhongtian Iron & Steel and Y onggang Group, also chose to leave most of their prices unchanged. Meanwhile, Hegang a leader in the northern Chinese construction steel market also kept its latest list prices unchanged at RMB 4,030/t with VAT for 18-25mm HRB335 rebar and RMB 4,120/t ($653/t) with VAT for 6.5mm Q235 wire rod. Though spot market directions remain unclear amid a lack of end-user demand, some participants tentatively lifted oer prices yesterday to test sentiment. In Beijing, oers of 18-25mm diameter HRB335 rebar sourced from Hegang rose to RMB 4,090-4,110/tonne ($649-652/t) with 17% VAT, up by RMB 10-20/t ($3-5/t) from Mondays levels. Its usual to see an upward movement of steel prices in the short-term after the Chinese Spring Festival, a market source tells Steel Business Brieng. However, it remains unclear whether the trend could continue next week in light of thin trading amid slow winter demand, he adds.
Chinese 18-25mm HRB335 rebar prices SBB 2012 RMB/tonne Incl. 17% VAT Shagang ex-works Hegang ex-works Z hongtian ex-works Yonggang ex-works Beijing s pot market 4,380 4,030 4,260 4,300 4,090-4,110 Excl. 17% VAT 3,744 3,444 3,641 3,675 3,496-3,513 [back to top]
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China sees seamless exports up 28% in 2011

Chinas seamless pipe export shipments last year rose at their fastest rate in three years. Exports jumped by 28% year-on-year to reach 4.87m tonnes during 2011, according to latest Chinese customs data. The sharp increase is mainly attributed to rising demand from the buoyant oil and gas sectors and Chinese mills continuing eorts to expand their export markets because there is excess supply in the domestic market. Seamless pipe exports were at their the highest level in the past three years. However, the 4.87mt total is lower than the over 6m t seen in the boom year of 2008 which is prior to the trade action in the United States and Europe against Chinese exports, which has eectively blocked out the majority of Chinas seamless products. Among all pipe products, the export of seamless pipes for usage in the energy sector was particularly strong due to the robust oil and gas industry Exports for oil and gas transportation pipes (line pipes) saw a . 36% y-o-y increase to 1.96mt in 2011. Oil country tubular goods (OCTG) exports rose by 13% y-o-y to 1.71m t during the same period. Shipments of line pipes and OCTG accounted for 75% of total seamless pipe exports last year, Steel Business Brieng notes. Market insiders believe Chinas seamless pipe exports are likely to see modest growth this year, compared with the relatively high level in 2011. Leading indicators have reduced their growth forecasts for global economic growth this year. As such, overseas demand for seamless pipes is likely to slow down this year, an industry analyst tells SBB.
China's seamless pipe trade In tonnes . Source: China Cus toms December 504,556 2011 4.87m 42%
SBB 2012
Exports Y-o-y chge Imports Y-o-y chge 19,204 -16% 2% [back to top] 28% 257,324
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China's stainless at product exports fall 21% in December

Chinas exports of stainless steel at rolled products dropped 21% month-on-month to 94,510 tonnes in December, according to data from the Chinese General Administration of Customs. The countrys imports of the same products also fell 18% m-o-m to 51,385 t in the month. Other than Korea, which registered m-o-m growth of 5%, exports to other main destinations like T aiwan, Vietnam and India all fell in the month. Imports from three of Chinas main import sources Korea, Japan and T aiwan all dropped in December. Asian stainless exporters had told Steel Business Brieng in November and December that export demand was poor due to uncertain global economic conditions and weak nickel prices which resulted in buyers staying away from the market. Exports may pick up January and February, however, as Chinese sellers reported renewed buying interest last month after nickel prices surged around $3,000/tonne in January . For the whole of 2011, China's exports rose 13% to 1.67m tonnes, while total imports fell 15% to 716,005 t.
China's stainless ats exports & imports in December Unit: Tonnes . Source: Chines e cus toms December Exports of which to: Korea Taiwan Vietnam India Imports of which from: Japan Korea Taiwan 16,689 10,874 8,834 -23 -40 -2 [back to top] 21,083 18,225 7,463 5,759 51,385 5 -46 -19 -29 -18 94,510 % m-o-m -21
Indian IO scandal: Karnataka miners braced for output drop

Should Indias Supreme Court permit a partial restart of iron ore mining operations in Karnataka, the state's ore output is unlikely to exceed 10-15 million tonnes in the rst year of production following the lifting of the mining ban, according to sources surveyed by Steel Business Brieng. This would
lifting of the mining ban, according to sources surveyed by Steel Business Brieng. This would represent a drop of as much as 75% from Karnataka's earlier ore production average of 40m t/y . It is widely expected that the court, in its next hearing into alleged illegal mining, will permit production to resume at some mines that the central empowered committee has deemed as operating legally . Production could then resume at more mines after the owners pay any penalties imposed for infringements considered minor. Mines that were being operated illegally are unlikely to be reopened, SBB learns. All the investigating authorities appear to be more reasonable now than earlier, a Bangalore-based miner explains. W think the court will allow some mines to resume production but output will denitely be e curtailed, he expects. A Hospet-based miner agrees, but cautions that, even were the court to rule in favour of miners, more time would be needed before ore production resumes. A decision to restart mines is one thing. But after that, the court will also set guidelines for operations and all this would take time, he says. A court hearing into the matter did not take place as scheduled on 20 January The court is expected to . convene this Friday (3 February), failing which it would hear into the matter only on 10 February, SBB is told.
Iron ore production in Karnataka (scal year base) Source: Indian Planning Commis ion report Unit: Million Tonnes Lumps 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 14.006 18.946 21.532 18.661 16 13.655 Fines 22.909 21.773 27.458 28.31 27.016 24 Concentrates 4.35 2.928 0.005 Total 39.843 40.719 48.99 46.971 43.016 37.66 [back to top]
Chinas iron ore imports from India slump 25% in 2011

Chinas iron ore imports from India plunged by 24.5% last year from 2010, reecting New Delhis imposition of higher export duties on iron ore exports and increased supplies from other countries including Australia and Brazil, Steel Business Brieng notes from the latest customs bureau data. In 2011, China imported 73.1m tonnes of iron ore from India, making it Chinas third-largest supply source, even though volume was down 23.7mt from the previous year. Indias ore has been losing its market share in China to other sources after the Indian government lifted the export tax to 20% eective 1 March 2011 up from 15% for lumps and 5% for nes previously Indian ore . has since been losing price competitiveness against Australian ore, especially during last years second half, as reported. India subsequently lifted ore export taris to 30% eective 30 December. In December, China bought 4.75mt from India almost unchanged from November. Meanwhile Chinas iron ore purchases from Australia, its largest supplier, rose 11.75% or by 31.2mt y-o-y to reach 296.7mt last year, even though the December volume dipped by 2.7% m-o-m to 29.29mt. From Brazil, China imported 142.73mt of iron ore last year to make for an increase of 9% or 11.81mt. The December import volume reached 13.72mt, some 7.8% more than in November. The top three supply countries, nonetheless, lost some of their share of Chinas iron ore market share to new supply sources such as South Africa, Iran, and Ukraine in 2011. Australia, Brazil and India accounted for 74.7% of Chinas total 686.06mt of iron ore imports last year, down from around 80% in 2010, SBB calculates.
China's top three iron ore sources Source: China Cus toms Aus tralia Brazil India 29.29 13.72 4.75
SBB 2012
Dec (in mill t) m-o-m change Jan-Dec Share -2.7% 296.68 43.24% 7.8% 142.73 0.2% 20.8% [back to top] 73.06 10.65%
China's scrap imports grew 16% in 2011

Chinas ferrous scrap imports reached 6.77m tonnes last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, according to China Customs data. The increase in the volume of scrap imports was a result of the narrowed price gap between domestic and imported scrap.
Imports for this year could remain strong, industry sources predict. The countrys growing crude steel output has also led to a larger demand for raw materials including scrap, Steel Business Brieng is told. Market sources generally believe that Chinas scrap importing is likely to maintain a growing trend in the next few years. Chinese mills are paying more attention to the international scrap market and are expanding their overseas supply channels. This will help the countrys scrap import volume to enjoy a steady increase, a scrap trader in east Chinas Jiangsu province says. The China Association of Metalscrap Utilization (CAMU) predicted at the beginning of last year that China will need to import more than 11m t of scrap in 2011 to make up for a shortfall in the domestic availability . But actual import volume is usually less than estimated due to the uncertainties in international trading, a CAMU source explains. Chinas scrap imports peaked 13.69m t in 2009 but plunged by 57% in 2010 to reach only 5.25m t mainly due to unfavorable prices of imported scrap that year, SBB notes.
China's ferrous scrap imports SBB 2012 Source: China Cus toms 2011 Scrap import volume Y-o-Y change 6.77m t 16% 2010 5.25m t -57% [back to top]
China opting for chrome ore over FeCr: Macquarie

China is choosing to satisfy more of its increasing demand for chrome units from overseas ore to produce chrome alloys domestically as its stainless production continues to increase, said Macquarie commodities research in a 30 January report seen by Steel Business Brieng. Chinas chrome ore imports increased 9% to a new record of 9.4m tonnes in 2011, while ferro-chrome imports fell by 1% to 1.8m t, which is also 17% below its peak in 2009, Macquarie noted. The increase was driven almost entirely by South Africa where imports rose 51% to 4.7m t last year, accounting for almost 50% of the total imports. This compares to a market share of 36% in 2010. At the same time, South African FeCr producers are struggling to control production costs, particularly power prices, which are rising steeply, while their main export market is stagnant as China switches from importing FeCr to importing chrome ore, it said. While the South African FeCr industry has called for restrictions on the export of chrome ore, Macquarie believes these are unlikely to be imposed and would be self-defeating as exporting chrome ore remains more protable than FeCr. As such we expect China to continue sourcing proportionally more of its increasing import demand for chrome units from ore ahead of alloys, said Macquarie. This has important implications, of course, for the FeCr industry, especially in South Africa.
Vale to commission Subic Bay oating terminal in February?

There may be a delay for iron ore giant Vale to commission its oating transshipment terminal at Subic Bay in the Philippines in February, Steel Business Brieng learned from an industry source that is close to the Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority (SBMA). Vale and SBMA ocials held a discussion yesterday (31 January), and Vale ocials did an inspection on the facilities: I heard that there may be a delay for the commissioning of the oating terminal, but no idea why or till when, the source told SBB. He conrmed to SBB, however, that all the facilities at the oating terminal have completed installation and are ready for operations. Vale has been declining comment on the issues relating to such centres, just mentioning the Subic Bay terminal commissioning date as in February in a press release on 31 January It has been seeking to . establish iron ore transshipment and distribution centres in Asia with the strong resistance it has been facing from the Chinese authorities and shipping industry to unloading its very large ore carriers (VLOCs) at Chinese ports, as originally planned. Among the back-ups are the distribution centre in Malaysia to be commissioned in 2014 and the Subic Bay transshipment terminal, as SBB reported. Back-up plans are necessary after Chinas Ministry of T ransport issued a notice on 31 January, banning any odd-sized vessels from docking at Chinese ports on safety concerns, which was interpreted by a Hongkong-based shipping service provider as a reiteration from Beijing to ban VLOCs from arriving in China.
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Japan eyes Jan-Mar steel output rise, fears higher stocks

Japans steelmakers plan to produce 26.65m tonnes of crude steel during the current quarter, 2.5% more than a government prediction in late December and leading to fears of a rise in domestic stocks. The production forecast by the ministry of economy trade & industry (Meti) is 0.3% higher than actual October-December output, and seems to reect expectations among steelmakers of a rise in demand as Thailand recovers from last years oods, a Meti spokesman tells Steel Business Brieng. The plan for nished product output is also 6.6% higher than October-Decembers 22.57mt at 24.07mt, a much steeper increase than for raw steel. Meti suggests the mills continued to produce and stockpile semis last quarter while the nished product market was unstable, and now they aim to draw down their semis stocks. Overall, the mills production plans for this quarter seem excessive for current market conditions and producers may be anticipating improved global steel demand, Metis spokesman says. But the yen continues to strengthen and boosting steel exports signicantly may be dicult. W also worry about rising domestic stocks, and monitoring actual demand is very important to e determine production volume, he added. Japans ordinary steel stocks for domestic sales at producers and distributors at end-December edged up by 67,000t or 1.2% from end-November to reach 5.58mt, Japan Iron & Steel Federation data show. Meti has yet to prepare its production forecast for April- June, but the ministry spokesman said demand from post-quake reconstruction and rm demand from the auto sector will support basic demand. But the yen-dollar exchange and the eurozone crisis make predictions about the market dicult, he added.
Japan's Jan-Mar steel production plan Source: Meti Total Crude s teel total q-o-q y-o-y q-o-q (For domes tic) q-o-q (For export) q-o-q 26.65m t +0.3% -3.8% 5.3m t +2.6% +0.1% +8.1% [back to top] +6.6% +2.1% 7.81m t +7.2% +7.8% +2.7% +7% (ordinary) (s pecial)
Steel product total 24.07m t 18.77m t
16.26m t 12.76m t 3.51m t 6.02m t 1.79m t
Chinas Jan PMI recovers but steel industry unmoved

Chinas manufacturing sector recovered in January thanks to rmer domestic consumption because of the Chinese New Y ear holiday This was illustrated by the countrys latest purchasing managers index (PMI) for . January, released on 1 February by Chinas National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which climbed 0.2 of a point from December. Last month Chinas PMI stayed above the 50 benchmark to reach 50.5, leading NBS analyst for the PMI, Zhang Liqun, to remark on the countrys slow-but-steady manufacturing recovery since December. The January growth mainly reected improved domestic demand during the holiday though, he pointed out. But the recovery in Chinas PMI in January has not eased steel market concerns about manufacturings general poor health. Chinese industry analysts and traders tell Steel Business Brieng a slowdown in Q1 economic growth is palpable and thus the chill in the steel market will linger beyond this quarter. Indeed, in Januarys PMI the countrys new orders sub-index rose 0.6 of a point to 50.4, but the major contributors were commodities industries such as agricultural products, food and beverages, and textiles, SBB notes. The China Iron & Steel Association (CISA) also says in its latest report that given poor domestic and export demand, steel output is unlikely to rebound signicantly while market inventories, especially of construction products, will trend upwards during January-March. Thus, prices will continue to uctuate at current low levels, it warned. Chinas machinery industry federation, a Beijing-based grouping of 270 of the countrys major machinery makers, says the machinery sectors growth rate will slow to perhaps 18% this year from last years 25%.
Japanese mills bemoan surge in steel imports in 2011

A 22% year-on-year jump in Japans imports of carbon steel to 4.48m tonnes in 2011 has predictably sparked fear among local producers that the surge will increase and complaints about the strong Japanese currency . The Japan Iron & Steel Federation (JISF) data published W ednesday showed total iron and steel imports including special steel, pig iron, semis and others climbed 15% from 2010 to 8.3mt. The carbon steel total marked the rst time since 2005 that imports broke the 4m t-level, Steel Business Brieng notes. Imports grew especially from Korea chiey because of the yens appreciation and this condition will continue, said a JISF spokesman. An exchange rate of 70=$1 seems to have become the norm and imports will continue to enjoy competitiveness, he told SBB. Despite the rise, Japans total import volumes amounted to just one-fth of its total exports last year of 41.2mt, SBB notes. Koreas exports of carbon steel to Japan last year soared by nearly 30% y-o-y to 2.95mt and accounted for 88% of the total. Among the largest increases were for heavy plates where imports grew 161% y-o-y to 370,000t and for hot rolled coils where imports rose 24% to 1.02mt. The climb in plate shipments seems to reect aggressive export sales by Dongkuk Steel Mill, Posco and Hyundai Steel each of which has newly commissioned plate mills. The rise in HRC shipments would be from Posco and Hyundai that have also expanded HRC capacity, as SBB has reported.
Japan's leading steel suppliers Source: JISF 2011 Korea Taiwan China Grand total 2,951,848 818,219 638,146 4,483,496 Chge +29.9% +15.8% +6.4% +22.4% [back to top]
India's JSPL eyes stake in Odisha's Gopalpur port

Plans by Indias Jindal Steel & Power Ltd (JSPL) to acquire captive port facilities in the eastern state of Odisha (formerly Orissa) are seen as materializing through the rms acquisition of a 60% shareholding in Gopalpur Ports Ltd (GPL), operator of the existing Gopalpur port in the state. GPL is a 50:50 joint venture between Orissa Stevedores Ltd (OSL) and Noida-headquartered Sara International Ltd. The Odisha state government had selected the two partners in September 2006 through a tender to build a 40 million tonnes/year port at Gopalpur. Sara International is set to ooad its entire stake in the project to JSPL while OSL would sell 10% of its share to give the steelmaker a 60% majority shareholding in GPL. OSL would hold the remaining 40%, according to a report yesterday by Indian publisher Livemint. Though JSPL and Sara International ocials declined comment on the report, the steelmaker was in talks with the Odisha government last July to build a captive port to support the 6m t/y integrated steelworks it is building at Angul, some 280-300km north of Gopalpur, as Steel Business Brieng reported. At the time, JSPL estimated it would require adequate port facilities to handle imports of 5.5m t/y of coking coal, 7.46m t/y of non-coking coal, 2.6m t/y of limestone and 3.7m t/y of dolomite. It would also need facilities to handle outgoing shipments of about 4.93m t/y of coil and 900,000 t/y of plate from Angul. The steel cargoes were planned to be shipped mainly to Indias west coast.
Turkish sheet prices at, trade weak

Flat rolled steel trading in T urkey remains quiet and is unlikely to pick up anytime soon; buyers are unwilling to accept current price levels, which are not anticipated to decrease in the immediate future due to rising global prices. Domestic producers are oering hot rolled coil at $660-670/tonne ex-works. Ukrainian import oers stand at $620-630/t cfr, while Russian product is pegged at $650-660/t cfr and Romanian coil at $650/t cfr. The 9% duty on HRC imports from non-EU sources makes importing from these locations more costly than sourcing locally Most buyers have already secured some bookings for February and March delivery and are . therefore in no hurry to order. Heavy snow this week has hampered deliveries and industrial activity, sources tell Steel Business Brieng. This is expected to ease in a couple of weeks time, when market activity should pick up, they add.
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US Steel Kosice targets 4 million short tonnes in 2012

US Steel is aiming to produce 4 million short tonnes (3.6m tonnes) at its Slovakian integrated mill in 2012, the company said in an annual earnings call monitored by Steel Business Brieng. W e're gonna operate all 3 furnaces so that implies 3-something million or 4 million tons on an annual basis, the US Steel chairman and ceo John P. Surma comments. Last year around half of US Steel Kosice's output was hot-rolled material, SBB learnt. Unlike the loss-making Serbian mill, U.S. Steel Kosice has produced positive operating results in 2011, Surma said. Despite that the steelmaker is unsure its European unit will report prots in the rst quarter of 2012. "Our objective would be to chase a breakeven number for the rst quarter, Surma commented. "It's a really good objective but it's a stretch", he added. The company will still incur losses generated by US Steel Serbia in January, SBB learns. While European spot market prices are expected to increase in Q1 2012, contract prices are expected to weaken compared to Q4 2011, SBB heard in the call. "One of our other problems is, of course, that we ran really low levels in the fourth quarter and raw materials costs are coming down but we still have some higher cost material we've got to chew our way through now in the rst quarter," Surma explained. US Steel Kosice, US Steel's sole European integrated plant after the sale of its Serbian operation, has a combined capacity of 4.5m t/y, SBB notes.
Ruukki aims at improving protability at 80% capacity

The Finnish-based steel producer, Ruukki, is launching a project aimed at improving performances and securing protability when steel production capacity is a reduced at 80%, Steel Business Brieng learns from the company . Ruukki conrmed that it has produced at around 80% of its capacity in Q4 and overall crude production in 2011 remained stable at 2.2mt compared with 2010. In Q1 the capacity utilisation is expected to increase slightly, according to Sakari T amminen, president and ceo of the company . T improve its competitiveness, Ruukki Metals is expected to focus more on special steel products (higho strength, wear-resistant and coated steel products), which accounted for 31% of total sales in 2011, SBB understands. This represents a rise of 4 percentage points on 2010. A full analysis will be carried out during Q1 2012, but the company continues targeting to take this share to 60%, as previously reported. Meanwhile, the company is due to start discussions with its iron ore supplier, LKAB, over the delivery of material in Q2. The company signed a long-term agreement back in July 2011 that is still in place until the end of Q1. W havent started discussions with LKAB yet, we are not aware of how long the new e agreement will run for, T amminen commented in a conference call with analysts. Overall, the group posted a prot of 56 million ($74m) in 2011, up from the 38m prot posted in 2010.
UK Mir Steel faces court case over hot strip mill ownership
The UK-based hot rolled coils producer Mir Steel is expected to face a civil court case later this year as Lictor Anstalt, a Lichtenstein-based company, seeks to have its claimed ownership of the hot strip mill recognised, Steel Business Brieng learns from sources close to Lictor. In December the UK high court rejected a bid by Mir Steel to issue a summary judgment in its favour on the two claims. The case relating to an allegedly unlawful sale of steel-making equipment by a company in administration is expected to be heard in July 2012, according to the source and documents seen by SBB. If the court nds in Lictors favour, Mir Steel could be forced to pay up to 50m (60.1m) in compensation, SBB understands. When Libala, a company aliated to Mirinvest, bought the site in 2008, administrator Begbies T raynor said the sale included the plant (then known as Alphasteel) and certain other of its assets. Lictor Anstalt supplied the rolling equipment to the former owner of the plant in Newport, Alphasteel, between 1998 and 2000. At that time, the company owning the site agreed for Lictor Anstalt to retain ownership of the equipment, SBB learns from sources familiar with the matter. Lictor Anstalt is now seeking compensation from Mir Steel, which had not commented on the matter prior to SBBs deadline.
Serbian state keeps Smederevo open, looks for investors

The Republic of Serbia is going to continue operations at its Smederevo steelworks acquired earlier this week from US Steel, Nebojsa Ciric, the Serbian minister of economy and regional development said. Production at the loss-making mill is to be maintained, Steel Business Brieng reads on the ministry's website. "The motive of the state is not economic, but social, Ciric explains. The state wants to protect the jobs of 5,400 people working at the Smederevo works, SBB understands. One of the turnaround scenarios for the Serbian mill would be to invest 80million to expand its product portfolio to produce sheet for car making, the minister notes. This product positions US Steels plant in Slovakia in a better situation. US Steel however was not interested in investing more resources into the continuously underperforming site. Meanwhile, the Serbian government is looking for strategic investors even though US Steel's eorts to nd a better positioned buyer was unsuccessful earlier, SBB learns. Rinat Akhmetov, the owner of Ukrainian steelmaking group Metinvest Holding was said to be interested in the Serbian plant, local media reported. Metinvest Holding did not respond to requests for comment before SBB's press deadline.
Turkish mills open March oers, some Feb still available

T urkish producers were heard oering March production billet at $590-595/tonne FOB to traders on W ednesday when bad weather limited local sales of construction steel in the East Mediterraneans main producing regions, market players tell Steel Business Brieng. Mills state that they have lled February order books, but traders doubt this and one says an oer was received for 5,000t of February production rebar from a large steelworks at $650/t FOB. This is level on sales pushed through last week. W dont e think the T urkish mills have sold out for February; if Egyptians come in to the market for prompt shipments with some reasonable bids, then we expect some tonnage to be found for February, one trader says. A long product producer had received no bids late on T uesday from Egyptian traders even though producers in the North African country released their February production quotations for nished steel. The cold snap sweeping across Europe has put paid to the short-lived uptick in T urkish domestic buying activity last week; oers of billet are now $605-610/t ex-works Iskenderun but no deals have been reported at this level. For wire rod, the oers released are pegged at $700-710/t EXW Iskenderun, but again no deals are pushed through and for larger volumes potential buyers are chasing $10-15/t reductions.
European stainless bar market enjoys renewed energy

European austenitic stainless steel bar base prices SBB 2012 25-80mm dia bright bar, cents /kg delivered Nov 11 Type 304L 90 - 120 Dec 11 90 - 120 Jan 12 95 - 125 Feb 12 100 - 125 Mar 12* 100 - 125
* SBB forecas t, except announced s urcharges
There has been a condence boosting start to 2012 for the European stainless steel longs market, marred only by thoughts that this year could be a re-run of 2011, with a strong rst half and weaker H2. Distributors have been restocking after running down inventories through the closing months of 2011 as surcharges declined, although they have been exercising caution about stock levels both by volume and by value, Steel Business Brieng is told by market sources. Mill-direct business is said to be better than in Q4, although end users, mindful of the uncertainty surrounding surcharges, are also careful with stock levels. Mill delivery times have increased, and now range from eight weeks for rolled commodity bars, to as far forward as August for smaller forged bar. With surcharges now increasing there is the expectation that, even though base prices are not showing much change, margins should improve, particularly on special grades. Most sources tell SBB that the prevailing gloomy economic sentiment is at odds with their trading experience. They report good, stable demand in key markets such as oil/gas, power generation, machine building and automotive. Also in chemicals, with only construction singled out as under-performing. One south European mill says it has negotiated a 50/tonne increase on austenitics, and hopes to secure up to another 50/t during Q1. But this seems at odds with experience elsewhere, where increases are thought unlikely, or at best to be modest. One north European mill talks of perhaps achieving a 1-2% base price increase this quarter (so up about 25/t). T ransaction prices for type 304L bright bar, 25-80mm dia will be around 3,050-3,300/tonne this month, SBB calculates.
European ferritic stainless steel bar base prices SBB 2012 8-25mm dia drawn bar, cents /kg delivered Nov 11 Type 430F 130 - 150 Dec 11 120 - 140 Jan 12 125 - 145 Feb 12 125 - 150 Mar 12* 130 - 150 [back to top]
* SBB forecas t, except announced s urcharges [Steel Prices ] [related articles ] [print] [your comment]
Outokumpu/Inoxum tie-up to create largest stainless producer

The new venture between Finland's Outokumpu and Germany-based ThyssenKrupp will be the world's largest stainless producer, with a capacity of 3.095 million tonnes/year, once concluded in Q4 2012. The main goal of the new stainless venture will be to implement operational eciency improvements, including the reduction of costs and better utilisation of production capacities. The combination of ThyssenKrupps Inoxum and Outokumpu will make Outokumpu nancially stronger than it is today, ceo Mika Seitovirta said in a joint press conference with ThyssenKrupp's ceo Heinrich Hiesinger on W ednesday . The total estimated synergy cash savings estimated at 225-250 million per annum, 45% of which are expected by end-2014 and 70% by end-2015. A major part of the strategy is the reduction of its cost base in Germany, primarily by relocating production and shutting meltshops at Krefeld by end-2013 and Bochum by end-2016. The reduction in thin cold rolling capacity in Sweden is to start from 2014 onwards. In total, 1,500 jobs are to be cut as part of Outokumpu's cost-cutting measures. Outokumpus strategy is built on its integrated mills in north and southern Europe and in Alabama, US. It remains committed to the on-going Krefeld investment as part of the goal, Seitovirta emphasised. T erni in Italy remains a vital part and capacity utilisation will be higher than before, he added. Commenting on pending anti-trust approval, Outokumpu was condent that authorities would be responsive to the matter. Outokumpus managers believe the companies are complementary with Outokumpu serving mainly the industry and Inoxum serving mainly end-users, Kari Parvento, a member of the executive committee, told Steel Business Brieng. As a major shareholder in Outokumpu, ThyssenKrupp will aim to provide stability to the company, noted Hiesinger.
Outokumpu to cut 1,000 jobs as ceo seeks to stem losses

The Finnish-based stainless producer, Outokumpu, is set to continue taking actions to restore protability . Its 2011 results are said to be unsatisfactory as the company closes in on combining ThyssenKrupps Inoxum into its operations, Steel Business Brieng learns. In 2011 the company registered operational losses 66m, compared with losses of 91m in 2010, but increased signicantly its cash ow. In 2012 Outokumpu is expected to reduce its workforce in Finland, Sweden, the UK and its European distribution operations by up to 1,500. Results weakened slightly in the last quarter of the year, with deliveries of nished products decreasing by 5% compared with Q3, to 523,000t. Since the end of December we have been noticing a slight re-stocking activity among clients, as well as a price recovery It is soon to say how the demand will develop, Kari Parvento, member of the executive . committee comments to SBB, citing nancial market uncertainty as a negative factor. W are aiming to turn the company around as quickly as possible, but we dont have a target for when e protability will be reached, he adds. In Q1 2012 higher volumes are expected to lead to Outokumpu's operational result being around breakeven or slightly positive, according to the company Outokumpu has been able to increase prices slightly in . both standard and special grades since the beginning of the year, the company added. The company is also pushing ahead investments in its ferrochrome operation (see related article) and in its quarto plate production. By 2014 the site at Degerfors, Sweden, is expected to see its capacity increase to 150,000 t/y, from 110,000 t/y, following a total investment of 104m.
Sandvik Q4 prot disappoints market, lowers growth

Sandvik, the specialty steel and toolmaker, issued fourth quarter net prots of SEK731 million ($109 million), down from SEK2.094 billion for the same period last year. Analysts said Sandvik, which is in the process of restructuring, said it was now looking at 2012 revenue growth of 8%. That represented a lowering of the former target which was also set at 8% -- but was a
growth of 8%. That represented a lowering of the former target which was also set at 8% -- but was a number that excluded any acquisitions. Sandvik said demand at its Sweden-based special steel production unit, Sandvik Materials T echnology (SMT) was patchy during the quarter compared with other units. In Sandvik Materials T echnology, the scenario was more fragmented, with high demand in the oil and gas industry oset by weakness in several other segments, ceo Olof Faxander said. The North American market was stable during the quarter, as was much of Europe and Asia, Faxander added. SMT order intake declined at xed exchange rates by 19% compared with the year-earlier period. Adjusted for changed metal prices, the reduction was 15%, Steel Business Brieng notes. The nancial constraints in China and the nancial turmoil in Europe had a negative impact on investment levels and production rates in several segments, Sandvik said. Activity in the nuclear power industry remained low. SMT recorded a Q4 operating loss of SEK841 million against prots last year of SEK326 million. Sandvik said changed metal prices had a negative impact of SEK125 million on the result. Sandvik said although SMT reported favourable demand from the aerospace and process industries, a further deterioration had been noted from the consumer and electronics industries as well as for low valueadded products.
Black Sea scrap vessel sinks en route to Izmir, reports

Cambodia-agged vessel Vera sank o the north-west coast of T urkey on T uesday en route to Aliaga, Izmir region, to deliver a cargo of Russia-origin scrap to one of the steelworks there, according to reports that Steel Business Brieng could not immediately conrm. Vera is 114m in length, according to vesseltracker.com. The ship is reported to have sunk o Zonguldak port late on T uesday and has a dry weight capacity of 2,850t. Shipments of A3 demolition scrap are made regularly from Rostov, Russia, to steelworks in the Marmara, Izmir and T urkish Black Sea coastal regions. The three largest mills with terminals in Nemrut Bay, Aliaga, are Habas, Ege Celik and Izmir Demir Celik. Bad weather in the Black Sea has already aected scrap shipments, with one trading group reporting its vessel struggling to load and leave a port in the Sea of Azov further north due to surface ice. A search conducted by T urkish maritime authorities for the eight missing Vera crew members is ongoing.
Outokumpu to double ferrochrome capacity by 2015

Outokumpu is pushing ahead its previously announced project to double ferrochrome capacity The . company expects the investment to benet the entire combined entity of Outokumpu and Thyssenkrupp's Inoxum, making it self-sucient in ferrochrome by 2015, Steel Business Brieng learns from the company . Outokumpu expects the new capacity to be operational by 2013 and production to be fully ramped up by 2015, when its annual ferrochrome capacity is likely to reach 530,000t. The overall cost of the expansion is expected to reach 440 million: so far, about 137m has been invested. Mika Seitovirta, ceo of the company, explained in a press conference this week that this investment and capacity expansion is expected to diversify the revenue base of the company going forward. Outkumpu controls a chromite mine in Kemi, Finland, with ore reserves of 36mt. It will be able to produce, after the expansion, 1.3mt/y of ore, SBB notes.
French output up by 2.4% in 2011, not far from expectation

In 2011 French crude production increased by 2.4% to 15.77 million tonnes compared with last year triggered by slightly better fundamentals, Steel Business Brieng learns from the latest data published by the local producers association, FFA. 2011 was quite good, but still 18% less respect the output registered in 2007. Since April steel production fallen, and the French Association amended the outlook for the whole year, an analyst says. Before April the outlook for the whole year was around +4%, and then the outlook was for an output slightly higher than last year ... so at the end the production was in line with revised expectations," he explains. According to the French association data, in 2011 EAF producers increased their production by 9.4% to 6.12 mt, while integrated producers cut their production by 1.6% to 9.65 mt. In December alone, crude steel production decreased by 1.5% y-on-y to 1.10 mt. The output produced by EAF steelmaker decreased by 6.7% to 368,100, while the crude output from the BF producer increased by 1.3% to 739,550t. In December in France as well as in the rest of Europe mills undertake long stoppages during the
In December in France as well as in the rest of Europe mills undertake long stoppages during the Christmas period, and this is particularly true when the economy is not great, a trader comments. According to the Federation, activity in the at sector has decreased since December, but the fundamentals are not bad, particularly in the mechanical industry In December, the long sector was stable . at a level that has not seen so low for some time.
Italian third country imports up 12.8% in 2011

In 2011, Italy's steel imports from non-European Union (EU) countries reached 8.76 million tonnes, increasing 12.8% compared with 2010. In the same period, steel exports to non-EU destinations rose 3.1% y-on-y to 4.95 mt, Steel Business Brieng learns from Federacciai, the countrys steel federation. Overall in terms of economy and fundamentals, the rst half year was better compared with the rst six months of last year, an analyst says. In 2011 Italy's at steel imports from non-EU sources reached 4.66 mt, up 25.1 % y-on-y, while exports fell 5.7% to 1.72 mt. Imports of semi-nished products fell 5.4% to 2.94 mt, while exports fell even further by 25.2% to 279,000t. Flat products were the most imported products; followed in absolute term by semi products which actually decreased y-on-y In Italy, the largest domestic re-roller increased its capacity and this partially explains . the increases, another analyst says. Last year, Italy's longs imports from third countries reached 638,000t, up 21.8 % y-on-y, while exports increased even more to 1.47 mt, up by 14.6%. Long products led the export and this due to the activities of exports into North Africa. The exchange rate helped [Italian] domestic long mills to sell abroad. W hope that our domestic mills will continue to gain e market share in the export market to help them to make prots because the domestic market is still fragile, he concluded.
Special steel maker Zlatoust restores production

Russias Zlatoust Steel Plant (ZMZ) increased production and shipments of saleable steel products by 30% year-on-year in 2011 to 501,300 tonnes and 493,300t respectively, Steel Business Brieng learns from the plant. The special steels producer in Russias Chelyabinsk region haS been ramping up output for the past three years. It made 144,000t of nished rolled products in 2009 as it battled with nancial problems, and increased output to 385,400t in 2010. The continual recovery is driven by strengthening demand for ZMZs higher value long products, the plant says. Production of stainless steel bars rose 70% to 13,600t, and that of cold-nished bars went up 120% to 13,000t. In 2010 and 2011, ZMZ suspended all four electric arc furnaces in one of its three melt shops, and combined the other two shops into a single steelmaking complex. It currently operates ve out of the remaining six EAFs, two 5-tonne and three 10-tonne, and doesnt plan to restart any of the idled furnaces at present, SBB understands. Last year, the mills crude steel production averaged 6,500-7,500 tonnes/month, whilst nished products output neared 40,000 t/m, with shortfall of billet being sourced from Mechels Chelyabinsk steelworks, with which it has a strategic partnership. ZMZ is now managed by NK-Invest, which succeeded Elektrostali Rossii (Estar) holding, after the latter collapsed in the wake of the 2009 economic crisis. NK-invest also presides over Russian billet producers Rostov Steel W orks (REMZ) and Volga-Fest.
ENRC produces less ferro-alloys

Eurasian Natural Resources Corp (ENRC) reported total saleable ferro-alloys production was down 2.9% in 2011, to 1.49m tonnes year-on-year, due to unscheduled equipment repairs, Steel Business Brieng learns from the company . The decrease aected high-carbon ferro-chrome, ferro-silicon and silico-manganese production, which were caused by an emergency halt and subsequent repairs of furnace 63 at its Aksu works and a production suspension at T uoli. Furnace 63 was back on stream in December, ENRC says. Q4 2011 production volumes decreased for most ferro-alloy products versus Q4 2010, except for increases of 4.8% for low-carbon ferro-chrome to 22,000t and of 5% for ferro-silico-chrome to 21,000t. MediumThursday, 2 Feb 12 Steel Business Brieng 2012 15/21
of 4.8% for low-carbon ferro-chrome to 22,000t and of 5% for ferro-silico-chrome to 21,000t. Mediumcarbon ferrochrome saleable output was stable at 13,000t. ENRC's ferro-alloys operations are mainly located in Kazakhstan, with an exception of T uoli, in Xinjiang province in China, where it holds 50%.
ENRC mines, sells less iron ore due to end-year repairs

Kazakh miner Eurasian Natural Resource Corp (ENRC) said on W ednesday its October-December output of saleable iron ore products decreased 6.6% against Q4 2010 to 3.87m tonnes, and 5% for the whole of 2011 to 16.11mt. It blamed the decline on unexpected repairs and logistics issues in the latter part of the year. Whilst production of saleable 65.5% Fe concentrate increased 10.8% to 2.23mt compared to Q4 2010, it fell 12.5% quarter-on-quarter. Output in Q4 2011 of 63% Fe pellets fell 22.9% to 1.64mt on the corresponding 2010 period, and 2% quarter-on-quarter, due to unscheduled pelletizing plant repairs. The company says that, with repairs over, it is looking forward to a stable level of pellet production in 2012. A decrease in mining and processing was also caused by temporary railway restrictions on transport of Kurzhunkul ore to the processing plant and overloading of ore storage facilities on production sites, the company says. Primary iron ore concentrate production at its mines in Kazakhstan was down in Q4 2011 by 3.8% to 4.22mt against the comparable period in 2010, Steel Business Brieng learns from the company . ENRC produces iron ore in Kazakhstan and Brazil. It mines and processes the bulk of its iron ore at Kazakh Sokolov-Sarbai mining production association (SSGPO), with Russian steelmaker Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel and Chinese exports taking the bulk of processed ore.
UGMK sees solid distribution growth in Ukraine in 2012

Distributors and traders may sell up to 2.5 million tonnes of steel products in 2012 in Ukraine, up 3.5% year-on-year, Steel Business Brieng learns from the distributor Ukrainian Mining & Metals Co (UGMK). In 2011, Ukrainian distributors and traders sold 2.2 mt, exceeding the previous years volumes by 31%. They accounted for roughly a quarter of domestic steel consumption, SBB calculates. The boost to the outsell market was driven by demand from steel fabricators and rail car manufacturers and power generating companies, whose steel consumption was growing at the fastest rate, whilst the construction and shipbuilding sectors developed very moderately, according to UGMK. UGMK itself aims to sell 485,000t in Ukraine in 2012 and thereby increase its share of the domestic outsell market to 22%, up from the current 15%. It also plans to sell around 140,000t in Belarus, it says. In 2011, the company raised its domestic shipments by 22% y-o-y to 340,000t, comprising 35.5% of its total sales volumes. UGMK sold 535,000t (or 55.5% of its sales) in Russia while Belarus accounted for 85,300t (or 9%). UGMK, established in 1998, now owns 30 sales outlets in 26 cities and towns in Ukraine. The company is an ocial distributor of Ukraine's Alchevsk and Dzerzhinsky Dneprovsky steelworks, both parts of Industrial Union of Donbass, and of Dnepropetrovsk pipe plant.
South African plate oers to the US creating interest

A competitive import oer for 3-6 inch steel plate from South African steelmaker Evraz Highveld has drummed up interest in the US market. The oers range from $1,030 to $1,120 per short ton cfr, depending on gauge, and is scheduled for April arrival. The oer for 3-4 inch plate is $1,030/s.t, 4-5 inch plate $1,070/s.t and 5-6 inch plate $1,120/s.t - all about $40 below domestic mill fob prices. The oer is pretty good, one plate source said. US mills capable of producing plate up to six inches thick include Evraz Claymont and ArcelorMittal. Other domestic mills such as Nucor and SSAB only produce plate up to three inches thick. Mills are aware of it, the source said. If they dont move it quickly enough, they will try to discount that. That is the fear in the market. As Steel Business Brieng reported earlier this week, plate imports have continued to be a concern in the rst and second quarters for domestic plate mills. Imports have been cited as one of the reasons why anticipated March price increases are now seen as doubtful.
Thursday, 2 Feb 12
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US CRC lead times move toward 8 weeks, others mostly static

US coldrolled sheet mill lead times have stretched toward eight weeks, while hotrolled and hot-dipped galvanized sheet lead times held steady week-on-week. According to The Steel Index - which like Steel Business Brieng is a unit of Platts - CRC lead times rose w-o-w to 7.9 weeks for the period ended January 29 - up from 7.5 in the prior week and 6.9 the week before. At the same time, HRC lead times held mostly rm at 5.5 weeks, down just slightly from 5.6, but still higher than the 5.1-week level of two weeks ago. HDG sheet lead times remained at 6.2 weeks, which was still down from 6.9 two weeks prior. Market sources, while not saying the top of US sheet pricing had been reached, said this week they feel a downturn could be in the ong, as SBB reported.
Goldman Sachs raises NA auto output estimate

North American auto production could outpace sales in 2012-2013, mostly due to foreign brand capacity additions and an increasing export market, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research says. The rm says in a recent research note that companies' global platforms have made North American vehicles "more relevant in other geographies," while an increase in domestic OEM manufacturing activity and currency issues also drive its opinion. Goldman Sachs has raised its 2012-2013 production forecast for the steel-intensive North American auto sector by some 600,000-700,000 units, to a range of 14.1m-14.9m. As Steel Business Brieng has reported, current estimates peg US sales to be in the range of 13.5m-14.5m units this year. "With much of the increased production coming from foreign brands, domestic suppliers are directly poised to benet over Ford and GM," the rm says in its note. "This, combined with supplier content opportunities from a multi-year product reinvestment cycle and share gains from smaller region players, underscores a very favorable growth environment..."
US manufacturing index, new orders climb in January

ISM Manufacturing Survey Index January 2012 Jan. 2012 Dec. 2011 Change PMI New orders Production Employment Supplier deliveries Inventories Cus tomers ' inventories Prices Backlog of orders Exports Imports 54.1 57.6 55.7 54.3 53.6 49.5 47.5 55.5 52.5 55.0 52.5 53.1 54.8 58.9 54.8 51.5 45.5 42.5 47.5 48.0 53.0 54.0 +1.0 +2.8 -3.2 -0.5 +2.1 +4.0 +5.0 +8.0 +4.5 +2.0 -1.5
A national US index indicates that the manufacturing sector grew at a faster rate in January, which continues a 30-month trend of expansion. The Institute for Supply Managements purchasing managers index grew to 54.1 in January, seasonally adjusted. This is a one-percentage-point change over Decembers gure, Steel Business Brieng nds. Ratings higher than 50 indicate expansion; below 50 denote contraction. Prices jumped 8 percentage points to 55.5, from a decreasing 47.5 in December. ISM names steel and stainless steel as two of the commodities that experienced price increases in January . New orders are also growing at an accelerated rate with a 2.4 point increase month-over-month. At 57.6, new orders represent the fastest growing category . The index shows that production is up but growing at a slower rate m-o-m arriving at 54.3 in January, compared to 58.9 in December.
January exports are growing at a faster rate with an index level of 55, and imports are also growing at a slower rate m-o-m with a 52.5 rating. Inventories contracted in January but at a slower rate than December. The 49.5 index gure continues a four-month trend of slipping inventory levels. Under guidance from the Department of Commerce, ISM decided to stop adjusting inventories for seasonal factors. Customers' inventories, prices, order backlogs, imports and exports also are not seasonally adjusted. The DOC also revised seasonally adjusted data for the last seven years and lowered its threshold for outliers to account for the steep declines in the 2008 recession.
Canadian manufacturing index momentum slows

The Royal Bank of Canadas manufacturing index recorded it slowest expansion since the bank started tracking manufacturing companies in October 2010. At 50.6, the January purchasing managers index is a 3.4-point decline compared to Decembers index. Index readings higher than 50 indicate improving business conditions; below 50 show deterioration. Reective of the rise in total new orders, Canadian manufacturers raised production and depleted stocks of nished goods in January However, output growth was only modest and the weakest in the 16-month . survey history Backlogs declined for the fourth consecutive month, with a number of panellists citing the . completion of large projects and weak growth of incoming new work, the report says. Employment in manufacturing also fell for the rst time in the surveys 16-month history . The Canadian manufacturing index weighs ve other indices: new orders, output, employment, suppliers delivery times and stocks of purchases, Steel Business Brieng notes.
Siemens to modernize two bar mills for Gerdau in Colombia

Gerdau Diaco, the Colombian branch of the Brazilian steel group, is to upgrade two bar mills at its T uta and T ocancip steelworks, Steel Business Brieng learns from the Austrian plantmaker Siemens VAI which will supply equipment for the upgrades. The modernized rolling mills are scheduled to come into operation at the end of 2012, and will be designed to produce rebar in dierent diameters. At Diacos T uta bar mill, the roughing mill will be equipped with a new billet feeder and a new pinch roll. The remainder of the rolling line will be completely renovated, and equipped with new stands. At the T ocancip works, the rolling mill will be equipped with new main drive for the rougher and mechanical equipment. In the cooling section, Siemens will install a new cooling bed and shears. Gerdau tells SBB the upgrade will not result in an increase in production capacity .
Grupo Aon seeks R$100m credit deal for Brazilian mill

Spanish company Grupo Hierros An is negotiating a credit line of around R$100m (US$58m) with a local bank to build a new steelworks at Pecm, northern Brazilian state of Cear, Steel Business Brieng learns. The company reported an initial investment of R$300m, of which we would contribute with a third", says Francisco Rivnio, the superintendent of the nancial institution Banco do Nordeste. He adds that this is a project that the bank is supporting, given the good impact it will bring to the region. The state government will also fund 10% of the project, which will receive a total investment of about US$578m. The new mill, which will be built on a 1.5 million square meter site close to the city's port, will have a capacity of 2m tonnes/year, with initial production expected to begin in mid- to late-2013. Grupo Hierros An is owned by Spanish businessmen Manuel An who, in 2007, oversaw the sale of Spanish steel producer Siderrgica An to Barcelona-based steel group Celsa. As part of its Brazilian investment plan, Grupo Hierros An is investing a further US$260m in a cement works.
Centaurus Metals strengthens Brazil management team

International iron ore company Centaurus Metals has announced two new appointments, further strengthening its in-country management team in southeastern Brazil as it moves towards domestic production from its agship Jambreiro Project and advances its iron ore export strategy at the Serra da Lontra project. Alexandro Avila de Moura has been appointed as the rms general manager of operations, based in Belo Horizonte. Before joining Centaurus, Moura was coo and gm of operations at Brazil's MMX Minerao. Antonio Celso Pereira has been appointed as the gm of logistics, based in Salvador. Pereira was previously the director for commercial operations and business development at the Bahia public port authority Codeba. Steel Business Brieng learns that Centaurus is targeting the completion of a bankable feasibility study on a proposed 2m tonnes/year iron ore operation at Jambreiro by the end of the third quarter, paving the way for development to commence by early 2013. At Serra da Lontra, a major resource drilling program is underway targeting a maiden JORC resource by May as the foundation for a planned iron ore export business.
Weaker market reduces Merafes ferro-chrome output

W eaker market conditions and scheduled maintenance in the high electricity tari months in South Africa saw ferro-chrome producer Merafe Resources output reduced in the second half of 2011, it said in a statement. Capacity utilisation for the world's largest ferro-chrome producer was only at 65% for 2011 and production volumes were 12% lower compared to 2010. Ferro-chrome production levels were adversely aected by industrial action during the H2 2011, which saw operations running at reduced capacity for 38 days. Merafe said in the statement sent to Steel Business Brieng that average ferro-chrome prices for 2011 were $1.25/pound compared to $1.24/lb in 2010. As a result of weaker demand for stainless steel, the European benchmark price for the rst quarter 2012 was $1.15/lb, a reduction of $0.05/lb from the fourth quarter 2011. Merafe produced 263,000 tonnes of ferro-chrome in the year ending December 2011, which was down from 300,000t in 2010.
Flat output, higher prices for Xstrata's Australian met coal

Coking coal production at Xstrata's Australian operations in 2011 was slightly down on the previous year but prices were much stronger due to the impact of the Queensland oods. In its annual production report released this week, the Anglo-Swiss company reported coking coal production of 7.6 million tonnes for the full year compared with 7.7mt in 2010. At the same time output of semi-soft coking coal from Australia fell 19% to 5.3mt from 6.6mt the previous year. Xstrata said the average price achieved for its Australian coking coal in 2011 was US$265/t fob, up almost 30% on average prices of $204.3/t for 2010. Semi-soft coking coal price gains were even higher, jumping 47% to an average of $202.5/t fob compared with $137.3/t the year before. Xstrata noted that it had maintained coking coal production volumes after a "rapid recovery" from ooding in Queensland in the January-March quarter. Unlike most other major producers in central Queensland, Xstrata did not declare force majeure on coking coal shipments in early 2011. Force majeure was declared, however, on the predominantly thermal coal producing Rolleston mine for a short period because of ooding on the Blackwater railway line, the company previously told Steel Business Brieng. The mining company is due to begin producing thermal and semi-soft coking coal from its Ravensworth North mine in New South W ales in the second half of this year. The operation will produce around 2m t/y of semi-soft coking coal for export to India, China and other Asian markets. The companys coal is sold by its major shareholder, trading house Glencore.
Indo Mines gets environmental approval for Java iron project

Indonesia-focused Australian miner Indo Mines has received the nal environmental approval for its Jogjakarta iron ore project in southern Java, the company said in a statement on W ednesday . The approval allows the Perth-based company to proceed with the project, which is targeting annual production of 2m tonnes/year of concentrate.
Indo Mines holds 70% of the project and will also study the prospect of producing pig iron from Jogjakarta in later years. Steel Business Brieng notes that Jogjakarta is aiming to be one of the lowest decile cost producers of iron concentrate and pig iron and the company expects otake will go into the burgeoning Indonesian steel industry and wider Asian markets."
IMX magnetite jv with Taifeng could be salvaged

IMX Resources has inked new otake agreements for magnetite ore from its Cairn Hill project in South Australia that could potentially salvage its relationship with Chinese joint venture partner T aifeng Yuangchuang International Development. The Perth-based company is selling cargoes to new customers at a near 10% discount to the contract terms originally agreed with T aifeng. This is an improvement on the 30% discount on cargoes that IMX was forced to sell last year when T aifeng defaulted on its contracted volumes. It is understood that some of the new customers are the same ones that bought the cheaper cargoes and IMX hopes to turn one-o shipments into term contracts. IMX has also agreed a A$20m ($21.2m) loan secured against the assets of the Cairn Hill joint venture, which is likely to ensure that 49% partner T aifeng remains committed to the jv. Earlier this month T aifeng said it needed to consider its participation in Cairn Hill before committing any more capital, forcing IMX to fund the project on its own. Sources believe higher than expected production costs at Cairn Hill, along with lower than expected ore prices, undermined T aifeng's ability to fund the project, causing it to play for time. If the dispute had not been resolved the two partners were likely to have ended up in court but this is not expected to occur now. The $20m loan will allow operations to continue at current output levels of around 140,000 tonnes/month. Ore from Cairn Hill, near W oomera, is railed to the port of Adelaide in containers, Steel Business Brieng notes.
Capesize freight rates scraping bottom amid cargo lull

Capesize freight rates remain depressed as a result of slower xing activity and easing congestion o major Chinese discharge ports, market sources tell Steel Business Brieng. Cyclones aecting W estern Australia and severe weather disrupting Brazilian ports mean fewer cargoes have been hitting the water. Rain has also been crimping shipments out of Colombia and the eastern Australian coal port of Newcastle. Chinese New Y ear celebrations have further stymied xing activity of late, with iron ore buyers and traders out of the market. While people are gradually returning to work, the market is delicately poised with many participants waiting for clearer direction before committing. People generally pictured a slowdown at the start of the year, but its been absolutely awful ... Chinese New Y ear added to the malaise and it has not really sparked back to life, Peter Norfolk, research director of brokerage FIS, said. Congestion o Chinese ports has come down dramatically of late. W had 90 Capesizes waiting to berth e before Chinese New Y ear, thats now down to 56, Derek Langston, senior director, SSY Consultancy & Research, added. When you add that to the Capesize newbuilding programme, you have a substantial amount of tonnage in the market, which is helping to depress levels, he said. Last year was a record for Capesize deliveries, with 249 vessels hitting the market, Langston continued. Freight rates from T ubara to China were pegged at $19.28/tonne, while T ubara-Rotterdam rates were $8.56/t. W est Australia-China movements were around $7.61/t, down from an average of about $9.50/t since the start of 2010: the average rate for the route since the start of 2006 is $15/t. See also: "Global shipbuilding heads for the doldrums", SBB Insight, 26 January
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SBB Briefing 2 Feb 12

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HRC import prices rising in SE Asia, albeit slowly

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