M ASTER I N B USINESS A DMINISTRATION C O U R S E S Y L L A B U S

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS Course Code: Faculty: Class: Term and Sessions: Schedule: QA Ronald T. Chua (RTC) and Enrico C. Angtuaco (ECA) MBA September 2011-12 First Trimester 20 sessions; Second Trimester 10 sessions

COURSE DESCRIPTION
The objective of Quantitative Analysis is to provide students with a survey of statistical concepts, tools and techniques that are essential in management, finance and business applications. The course discusses a range of statistical methods for organizing, presenting, analyzing and interpreting data effectively for decision-making. The focus of the course is to help business executives identify meaningful trends and patterns for gaining managerial insights and for extracting crucial information necessary to effectively manage organizations. Students are assisted in developing skills and competencies in the use of software for performing basic quantitative data analysis on actual business problems and cases. The course is divided into five sections. Coverage includes exploratory data analysis, probability (including special probability models), basic concepts on sampling and statistical inference (which includes estimation, one-sample and two-sample hypothesis testing), regression and correlation analysis, as well as elementary time series analysis and forecasting as well as Payoff Tables and Decision Tree.

COURSE OBJECTIVES
At the end of the course, the students are expected to: Execute practical data analysis in a meaningful manner using the methods and techniques discussed in class;
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State basic concepts of probability, as well as discuss some important probability distributions and their applications in business and management; Draw conclusion regarding population parameters using sample statistics, confidence intervals, and hypothesis testing results; Estimate and explain the relationship between dependent and independent variables in a regression model; State principles and approaches on time series forecasting and applications in various areas of management; and, Be numeratework on quantitative data from business problems with ease and savvy.

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REFERENCES
Students can benefit from reading the following recommended references:1 (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) Albert, J. R. G. Basic Statistics for the Tertiary Level, 1st edition, Rex Bookstore. Bryant, P. G., and Smith, M. A. Practical Data Analysis: Case Studies in Business Statistics, Volumes 1 to 3, Mcgraw Hill. Levine, D. M., Stephan, D., Krehbiel, T. C., Berenson, M. L. (2005). Statistics: A ceHandbook for Managers, 1st edition, Pearson Prentice Hall. Bowerman, B. L., OConnell, R. T., Murphree, E. S. (2011). Business Statistics in Practice,6th edition, McGraw-Hill International Edition. Students are expected to read on the topics, from pertinent chapters of Bowerman et al. or a comparable text on business statistics before coming to class, and do the assigned cases/problem sets. Additional cases, data sets, and reading materials may be given in class. Students may also benefit from consulting a number of internet sites on basic statistical (e.g., http://davidmlane.com/hyperstat/index.html and http://www.stats.gla.ac.uk/steps/glossary/) .

COURSE OUTLINE
FUNDAMENTALS OF DATA ANALYSIS SUGGESTED READING: Bowerman et al (2011). chapters 13
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Session

Professor

Most of these books are available in the AIM library. Local reprints for the two Walpole books are available at major bookstores. The book by Dr. Albert is available in Makati outlets: of Rex Bookstore a) Unit UG-2, Star Centrum Bldg. ,Sen. Gil Puyat Ave. , Makati City , Tel. Nos.: 893-3744/ 818-5363; b) Rockwell, 1st Floor, Ateneo Professional School, Rockwell Center, Bel-Air, Makati City, Tel. No.: 729-2015 2

A. B.

Intro & Describing data, tabular and graphical Numerical measures of data

1 2, 3, 4

RTC RTC

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS SUGGESTED READING: Bowerman et al. (2011). chapters 46 A. B. C. Probability concepts Discrete probability distributions Continuous probability distributions 5 6, 7 8, 0 ECA ECA ECA

MIDTERM EXAM 10 Coverage: Describing data up to probabilities to continuous probability distributions

I.

SAMPLING AND STATISTICAL INFERENCE SUGGESTED READING: Bowerman et al. (2011). chapters 710, and 12 A. B. C. D. E. F. Sampling and sampling distributions Estimation and confidence intervals One-sample hypothesis testing Two-sample hypothesis testing Chi-square tests Case discussion on statistical inference 11, 12 13 14, 15 16, 17 18 19 RTC RTC RTC ECA ECA ECA

FINAL EXAM 20 Coverage: Data Analysis up to Chi-Square Tests (comprehensive) REGRESSION ANALYSIS SUGGESTED READING: Boweman et al. (2011). chapters 13-15 A. B. C. D.
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Simple Linear regression and correlation Multiple regression Logistic regression Case discussion on regression

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RTC RTC RTC RTC

ELEMENTARY TIME SERIES FORECASTING SUGGESTED READING: Boweman et al. (2011). chapter 16 A. Moving average, linear and nonlinear trends B. Seasonal indexes and deseasonalizing data DECISION TREE AND PAYOFF TABLES SUGGESTED READING: Bowerman et al. (2011). chapter 19 A. Decision Tables B. Decision Trees

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ECA ECA

III.

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ECA ECA

EXAM 30 Coverage: Linear regression and correlation analysis up to decision trees

COMPUTING TOOL
Students may use a number of software to perform execute basic statistical tools. Suggestions include (i) Excel and an Excel Add-On developed by Prentice Hall called PH-STAT, (ii) commercial statistical software
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such as SPSS or Stata, (iii) freeware such as the R statistical programming environment, which can be downloaded from http://cran.r-project.org., (iv) Mega-Stat, or (v) MINITAB

COURSE REQUIREMENTS
Quizzes -Midterm Exam --Final Exam ---Class participation, attendance, and attitude Group problem sets and written analyses of cases 15% 20% 30% 20% 15%

GROUP PROBLEM SETS / CASES

Students will be occasionally provided problem sets / cases that they will be asked to discuss in groups of five. Each group is to submit a one page written report for each case. Each report contains graphs, tables, charts, summary measures. The report is to be submitted on the assigned case day. Groups are to avoid technical jargon in reports (although such jargon is discussed in class and in the references). For instance, one may want to write that sales is expected to be 100, 000 with no money spent on advertising; sales is expected increase by 10 pesos for every peso spent in advertising rather than The estimated simple linear regression is SALES = 100,000 + 10*ADVERTISING, which has an intercept of 100,000 and a slope of 10. One group will be asked to randomly present the case in class for five to seven minutes (and everyone is expected to give comments on these presentations). The idea for such exercises is to enable students to see practical problems in business/management that involve data analysis, and to discover ways of dealing with such problems.

CLASSROOM POLICY
Students are expected to observe proper decorum in class, giving their full attention to a speaker, whether the lecturer or classmates. Cell phones are to be shut off, or put on silent mode during class hours. Students are discouraged from idle talk with seatmates. Leaving the room, for any reason whatsoever, during class is not allowed.

HONOR CODE
Cheating or any other form of academic dishonesty may result in a failing grade in this course and/or expulsion from the MBA Program.

Individual work should not be shared with any member of the learning team or class. Group work should be the collective output of the learning team. Learning teams should not share their answers with other learning teams. In the event that the answers of two or more learning teams are similar, all learning teams involved will get no credit for the group work. Students are expected to participate in class discussions and contribute to the overall learning of the class. Students should come prepared for class discussion by reading, at the very least, the assigned topics for the day, and by solving any assigned problems/cases for discussion.