KEN BLAKE, PH.D., DIRECTOR KEN.BLAKE@MTSU.EDU 615.898.2226 JASON REINEKE, PH.D., ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR JASON.REINEKE@MTSU.EDU 615.494.

7746

MTSU Poll Report, Spring 2012

Santorum and Romney lead Republican primary field in Tennessee. The two Republican front-runners are statistically tied among all Tennesseans and among the states independents. Santorum is the favorite among selfidentified Republicans, while Democrats would like to see Romney win the Tennessee Republican primary. (Contact: Jason Reineke, 615.494.7746) Presidential race tightens, but Republicans still appear to be in lead. All four Republicans lead Obama in the data but are statistically tied with him. Significant portions still undecided. (Contact: Jason Reineke, 615.494.7746) President Obamas job approval back to the norm in Tennessee. After a spike in disapproval in the Fall 2011 MTSU Poll, ratings of the president in the state have returned to the norm of about 50 percent disapproving and about 40 percent approving. (Contact: Jason Reineke, 615.494.7746) Most approve of and would re-elect Senator Corker. Among all Tennesseans, pluralities approve of the job Corker is doing and would vote for him over a Democratic challenger if the election were held today. Among likely voters, 51 percent say they would vote for Corker if the election were held today. (Contact: Jason Reineke, 615.494.7746) Most approve of Governor Haslam after first year in office. In a result almost identical to that of the Fall 2011 MTSU Poll, 51 percent approve of the job Haslam is doing, outnumbering by 3 to 1 those who disapprove. Even a plurality of the states self-identified Democrats approve. (Contact: Jason Reineke, 615.494.7746) Plurality approve of state Legislatures work. Forty-three percent of all Tennesseans approve. Approval is strongest in suburban and rural communities. Residents of the states large cities tend to disapprove. (Contact: Jason Reineke, 615.494.7746) Repeal of voter ID law has little support, but confusion about the law persists despite rising awareness. About four in five Tennesseans (83 percent) say they have heard that voters will be asked to show a photo ID at the polls starting this year, up significantly from last falls 71 percent. Furthermore, 82 percent consider the new law a good idea that should be kept in place, while 11 percent consider the law a bad idea that should be done away with. Confusion persists, however, about some of the laws specifics. (Contact: Ken Blake, 615.210.6187) Few think new teacher evals are helping, and most think class sizes should hold steady or shrink. Less than a fifth (18 percent) of Tennesseans think the states new public school teacher evaluation system is increasing the quality of education. A sizable proportion dont know. Meanwhile, half think current average class sizes in Tennessee are about right, while 38 percent think they should shrink. Only about four percent think they should increase. (Contact: Ken Blake, 615.210.6187) A third have no severe weather warning device, and half usually get an hours warning or less. About half of Tennesseans say they usually know about severe weather an hour or less before it arrives, and about a third have no device in or near their homes capable of sounding an alert when a tornado warning is issued for their county. (Contact: Ken Blake, 615.210.6187) Tennesseans express little approval of the Tea Party, less of Occupy Wall Street. Tennesseans show little support for the Tea Party movement and even less for the Occupy Wall Street movement. About a quarter of Tennesseans (24 percent) say their opinion of the Tea Party movement is favorable, but only 13 percent say the same thing about the Occupy Wall Street movement. (Contact: Ken Blake, 615.210.6187)

MTSU Poll, p. 2

Detailed Findings
Santorum and Romney lead Republican primary field in Tennessee (Contact: Jason Reineke, 615.494.7746) When all Tennesseans are asked who they would like to see win next weeks Republican primary in the state, 23 percent say former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, and 20 percent say former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and Texas congressional representative Ron Paul are each preferred by 10 percent of Tennesseans. The rest say that they prefer someone else, dont know whom they prefer, or refuse to answer the question. Among Tennessees likely voters, 29 percent would prefer to see Santorum win the primary, 22 percent would like to see Romney win, 10 percent prefer that Gingrich be the states choice for Republican nominee, and 8 percent want Paul to win. Perhaps most importantly, 40 percent of the states Republicans say that they would prefer to see Santorum win their primary. Romney follows with 19 percent of Republicans saying that they prefer that he win. Thirteen percent of the states Republicans want Gingrich to win the primary, and 11 percent would prefer that Paul be the victor. Among Tennessees independents, Romney and Santorum are tied, with 23 percent of independents saying they prefer each of the two current Republican frontrunners. Thirteen percent of independents would like the states Republicans to support Paul, and 9 percent say they would like Gingrich to be the states Republican choice. Interestingly, 23 percent of the states Democrats say that they would like Romney to win the states Republican contest, while 14 percent would like Santorum to win. Seven percent of Tennessee Democrats say they would like Paul to win, while only 3 percent want Gingrich to win in the state. Presidential Race Tightens, but Republicans Still Appear to be in Lead (Contact: Jason Reineke, 615.494.7746) Rick Santorum leads the Republican field in Tennessee when it comes to his ability to defeat President Barack Obama in the states general election if it were held today. Forty-four percent of Tennesseans say they would vote for former Pennsylvania Senator Santorum, while only 39 percent say they would vote for Obama. Among likely voters, a 51 percent majority say they would vote for Santorum, while 39 percent say they would vote for Obama. If the election were held today and it were between Mitt Romney and Obama, 43 percent of Tennesseans say they would vote for former Massachusetts Governor Romney, while only 39 percent say they would vote for Obama. Among likely voters, 47 percent say they would vote for Romney, while 41 percent say they would vote for Obama. In an election held today between Ron Paul and Obama, 40 percent of Tennesseans say that they would vote for Texas Congressional Representative Paul, and the same number say that they would vote for Obama. Paul pulls ahead among likely voters, though, with 44 percent saying that they would vote for him while 41 percent say they would vote for Obama. Finally, if the election were between Newt Gingrich and Barack Obama, 42 percent of all Tennesseans say they would vote for Obama, while only 39 percent say they would vote for former Speaker of the House Gingrich. However, as with Paul, Gingrich pulls ahead among likely voters, 45 percent of whom say they would vote for Gingrich while only 41 percent say they would vote for Obama. These results are similar to those obtained by a recent Vanderbilt Poll 1. However, it is important to note that all of the head-to-head races described above are within the MTSU Polls 4 percent margin of error, meaning that, statistically, they should be considered ties. It is also important to note that significant portions of Tennesseans remain undecided or refused to answer the questions discussed above.
1

http://www.vanderbilt.edu/csdi/Feb_2012_Complete_VU_Poll_Results.pdf, downloaded February 28, 2012

MTSU Poll, p. 3

President Obamas job approval back to the norm in Tennessee (Contact: Jason Reineke, 615.494.7746) After a spike in disapproval in last falls MTSU poll, President Barack Obamas job approval is back to levels consistent with where it has been for the last two-and-a-half years of his presidency. Only 38 percent of all Tennesseans approve of the job Obama is doing, while 51 percent disapprove. The remaining Tennesseans say they dont know whether they approve or disapprove, or refuse to answer the question. These results are consistent with those obtained by a recent Vanderbilt Poll of Tennesseans, which found 41 percent approval and 53 percent disapproval. Likely voters who participated in the MTSU Poll responded similarly, with 55 percent saying that they disapprove and 38 percent saying that they approve. Figure 1 shows the trend in Obamas job approval among all Tennesseans as measured by the MTSU Poll for Obamas entire presidency. Figure 1: Tennessee presidential job approval for Obama since inauguration

Source: MTSU Poll Tennessees Democrats and Republicans view Obama as one would expect, with broad majorities (over 80 percent) approving and disapproving, respectively. Overall, a narrow majority (51 percent) of independents disapprove, while only 34 percent approve. However, among 18 to 34 year-old independents, a 41 percent plurality actually approves of the job Obama is doing, while only 33 percent disapprove. A 59 percent majority of Independents over age 34 disapproves of the job Obama is doing, while only 31 percent approve. Most approve of and would re-elect Senator Corker (Contact: Jason Reineke, 615.494.7746) A 45 percent plurality of Tennesseans say that they approve of the job that Sen. Bob Corker is doing at the beginning of the election year for his seat. Only 27 percent say they disapprove, while almost the same number, 26 percent, say they dont know whether they approve. The rest refuse to answer the question. Though no official opponent has stepped forward at this time, 46 percent of Tennesseans say that they would vote for Corker, while 30 percent say they would vote for a Democratic opponent. The rest are undecided or didnt answer the question. Among the states likely voters, a similar 45 percent say they approve of the job Corker is doing, while 31 percent disapprove. Fifty-two percent say that they would vote for Corker if the election were held today, while only 31 percent say that they would vote for a Democratic opponent.

MTSU Poll, p. 4

Most approve of Governor Haslam after first year in office (Contact: Jason Reineke, 615.494.7746) In a result nearly identical to that obtained by the Fall 2011 MTSU Poll, 53 percent of Tennesseans approve of the job Gov. Bill Haslam is doing, while only 17 percent disapprove. Just over a quarter of Tennesseans say they dont know whether they approve or disapprove, while about 3 percent refused to answer the question. Although the governor is not up for re-election this year, more likely voters hold an opinion of his work to this point, with 58 percent saying that they approve and 20 percent that they disapprove. Among all Tennesseans, Haslams support is strongest when it comes to his fellow Republicans, 66 percent of whom say they approve, while only 9 percent disapprove. Fifty-five percent of independents approve, while 16 percent disapprove. Even among Democrats, a 41 percent plurality approve of the job Haslam is doing, while 36 percent disapprove. Plurality approve of state Legislatures work (Contact: Jason Reineke, 615.494.7746) Forty-five percent of Tennesseans say that they approve of the job the state Legislature is doing, while only 28 percent say that they disapprove. The rest dont know or refused to answer the question. In last falls MTSU poll, 39 percent of all Tennesseans said that they approved, and 30 percent said they disapproved. Among likely voters who participated in the spring 2012 MTSU Poll, 50 percent say that they approve of the job the state Legislature is doing, while 28 percent say they disapprove. Community was the most important factor explaining differences in opinion about the Legislature among Tennesseans. Pluralities of those who live in suburbs and rural areas approve 47 percent and 45 percent, respectively. But a 47 percent plurality of those who live in the states large metropolitan areas disapprove. Repeal of voter ID law has little support, but confusion about the law persists despite rising awareness (Contact: Ken Blake, 615.210.6187) About four in five Tennesseans (83 percent) say they have heard that voters will be asked to show a photo ID at the polls starting this year, up significantly from the 71 percent who said last fall that they had heard about the law. Furthermore, 82 percent of state residents consider the new law a good idea that should be kept in place. Eleven percent consider the law a bad idea that should be done away with, and the rest arent sure. Confusion persists, however, about some of the laws specifics. While sizable majorities correctly answer that acceptable forms of ID include a current Tennessee drivers license (93 percent) and a valid U.S. military ID (81 percent), only 21 percent know that an expired Tennessee drivers license is also acceptable. Meanwhile, less than a majority (46 percent) know that a valid employee ID issued by a major automaker to a worker at one of its Tennessee plants would be unacceptable, and only 29 percent know that a valid University of Tennessee student identification card would be unacceptable. The 21 percent of Tennesseans who know that an expired drivers license is acceptable represent a significant increase over the 14 percent who gave the right answer this past fall. Also, the 81 percent who know that a valid U.S. military ID is acceptable represent a significant increase over the 78 percent who knew last fall. Knowledge about the other items has shifted up or down since last fall, but always within the polls error margin, and the overall average of 2.7 right answers out of five is unchanged from last fall. Self-reported awareness of the new law varies by both age and gender. For example, the 64 percent of Tennesseans age 31 and younger who say they know about the law is significantly lower than the 90 percent of Tennesseans older than 31 who say they know about the law. Similarly, a significantly lower proportion of Tennessee men say theyve heard about the law (77 percent) compared to the 90 percent of Tennessee women who say theyve heard about the law.

MTSU Poll, p. 5

Support for the law is uniformly high among most basic demographic characteristics. A political divide is apparent, though, with 71 percent of Democrats in favor of keeping the law in place compared to a significantly higher 87 percent of Republicans, independents and others. Overall knowledge of the laws particulars rises as income increases. For a variety of reasons, knowledge of public information often correlates positively with wealth. Overall knowledge of the laws particulars is also greater for males than for females. Finally, Republicans and independents know more about the laws particulars than Democrats do. Few think new teacher evals are helping, and most think class sizes should hold steady or shrink (Contact: Ken Blake, 615.210.6187) Less than a fifth (18 percent) of Tennesseans think the states new public school teacher evaluation system is increasing the quality of education. Nineteen percent think its making no difference, and 16 percent think its decreasing the quality. Those in the largest group say they simply dont know (48 percent). Meanwhile, half think current average class sizes in Tennessee are about right, while 38 percent think public school classrooms in Tennessee should have fewer students on average. Only about four percent think the states public school classrooms should have more students on average, and the rest arent sure. The roughly one-third of Tennesseans who say their household presently includes at least one child who attends public school are nearly twice as likely to say the new evaluation system is making no difference in quality (26 percent) compared to the proportion saying so (14 percent) among Tennesseans who do not share a household with a public school student. Sharing a household with a public school student makes no difference on attitudes toward average class sizes, but significantly more women (47 percent) than men (26 percent) think average class sizes should be smaller. Most men (58 percent) think current average class sizes are about right, compared to 45 percent of women. A third have no severe weather warning device, a fourth usually get a few minutes warning at most (Contact: Ken Blake, 615.210.6187) With the spring tornado season arriving in Tennessee, about one in four state residents say they learn about severe weathers approach no more than a few minutes before it arrives, and about a third have no device in or near their homes capable of sounding an alert when a tornado warning is issued for their county. About seven percent of Tennesseans say they typically have no warning at all that severe weather is coming, and another 18 percent say they usually know about it a few minutes before it arrives. Another 25 percent say they typically know about severe weather about an hour ahead of time, and 26 percent say they usually know several hours before severe weather arrives. About 17 percent know a day or more in advance, and the rest arent sure or give no answer. Just under a third (30 percent) say their household has a special National Weather Service radio that is programmed to sound an alarm when the National Weather Service issues a tornado warning for their county. Fifty-two percent say there is some other device in or near their home - like a cell phone or a tornado siren - that would automatically sound an alert if a tornado warning were issued for their county. Some have both, but a third have neither. Weather Alert radios are more common among younger Tennesseans than among older ones, and other kinds of warning devices are more common in West and Middle Tennessee than in East Tennessee. Tennesseans express little approval of the Tea Party, less of Occupy Wall Street (Contact: Ken Blake, 615.210.6187) Tennesseans show little support for the Tea Party movement and even less for the Occupy Wall Street movement.

MTSU Poll, p. 6

About a quarter of Tennesseans (24 percent) say their opinion of the Tea Party movement is favorable, and nearly as many (22 percent) say their view of the Tea Party movement is not favorable. Another 22 percent say they are undecided, and a 32 percent plurality say they havent heard enough about the movement yet to make up their minds. By contrast, fewer 13 percent say they have a favorable opinion of the Occupy Wall Street movement, and 36 percent say their opinion of the movement is not favorable. Another quarter (23 percent) are undecided, and 27 percent havent heard enough to make up their minds. Attitudes toward the Tea Party movement diverge most sharply among the third or so of Tennesseans who scored highest on the polls measure of political knowledge. Sixty-seven percent of the political conservatives in this group approve of the Tea Party movement, but 55 percent of the political moderates and liberals in this group disapprove of the movement. The pattern reverses somewhat regarding attitudes toward the Occupy Wall Street movement. Here, 54 percent of all political conservatives disapprove of the movement, while only 10 percent of political moderates and liberals express approval of the movement.

MTSU Poll, p. 7

Sample and method Poll interviews were conducted by telephone Feb. 13-25, 2012 by students in the College of Mass Communication at Middle Tennessee State University. Students interviewed 646 people age 18 or older chosen at random from the state population. The poll has an estimated error margin of 4 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence. Theoretically, this means that a sample of this size should produce a statistical portrait of the population within 4 percentage points 95 out of 100 times. Other factors, such as question wording, also affect the outcome of a survey. Error margins are greater for sample subgroups. The sample varied somewhat from the U.S. Census Bureaus latest available estimates for age, race and gender proportions within the state. Such variation commonly occurs because certain demographic groups are more difficult to contact. The data were thus weighted to more closely match Census projections for these demographics. Here are the Census data, the sample data, and the sample data after weighting:

Census
Percent Age: 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Race: White Black Other Gender: Male Female 81.9 15.6 2.5 29.9 27.7 25.0 17.5

Unadjusted Sample
Percent

Adjusted Sample
Percent

11.3 26.2 34.4 28.1

28.4 28.5 25.1 17.9

84.9 9.9 5.2

81.9 15.6 2.5

48.0
52.0

46.0 54.0

48.5 51.5

Small variations in reported percentages (1 percent or less) sometimes result from rounding variations in different statistical procedures or the way different programs handle population weights. Weights also can increase the reported sample size in frequency tables. And, in our summary, where reported percentages do not otherwise total 100 percent, small numbers of those who are undecided or refused to answer may have been omitted.