Natural Hazards 31: 253276, 2004. 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands.

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GIS Modelling of Sea-Level Rise Induced Shoreline Changes Inside Coastal Re-Rntrants Two Examples from Southeastern Australia
WERNER G. HENNECKE
School of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Tasmania, Private Box 252-76, TAS 7001, Australia, E-mail: Werner.Hennecke@utas.edu.au (Received: 28 May 2001; accepted 7 February 2003) Abstract. Shoreline recession as a result of rising sea level has been recognised as a potential near-future hazard by a number of countries. However, the collection of high spatial resolution data, in particular elevation data, is often too costly and time consuming to be applied routinely for a detailed assessment of the potential physical and economic impacts of this hazard. Based on work undertaken for the Dutch Wadden Sea, a GIS-based coastal-behaviour model has been developed to formulate simple algorithms for simulating the potential physical impacts of rising sea level on the coastal environment, focussing here on coastal re-entrants. The GIS model developed is suitable for providing rst estimates of potential shoreline change, based on readily available information. To enhance the suitability of such initial assessment, the GIS model output, that is the rate of shoreline change, has been analysed in greater detail using a spreadsheet-based hazard probability model. The advantage of using a combination of both models is a rapid assessment of the probability of shoreline changes, instead of a single impact zone, as modelled with the GIS. The hazard probability rates received from the spreadsheet model are returned to the GIS to be displayed as a grading of risk instead of a single impact zone. The model introduced in this paper has been applied to two eld sites in southeastern Australia to model regional variations in shoreline response to rising sea level. Key words: Sea-level rise, ood-tide delta aggradation, GIS-based coastal-behaviour modelling, shoreline change, probability assessment.

1. Introduction The subject of the present paper was to develop a method that can be utilised to provide gross estimates of the potential effects of sea-level rise on coastal reentrants, in particular ood-tide deltas and their adjacent erodible shorelines. A tidal inlet is dened as the link between the ocean and a protected embayment to exchange water, sediments, nutrients, planktonic organisms and pollutants between them (Bruun, 1978; Boothroyd, 1985; Aubrey and Weishar, 1988). The term coastal re-entrant used in this paper also includes barrier-island and bay-barrier re-entrants, and bays opening to the sea that contain ood-tide deltas (Figure 1). The topic of the study has arisen from the limited existing knowledge about the range of near-future (50 to 100 years) physical impacts on coastal re-entrants,

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a) Barrier-Beach Re-entrant b) Bay-Barrier Re-entrant

WERNER G. HENNECKE
c) Bays

Flood-tide Delta

Flood-tide Delta Channel

Flood-tide Delta

Channel Littoral sediment transport Restricted or no sediment transport around headland Erosion-resistant shorelines (eg. rocky headlands)

Bay

Erodible shorelines (eg. barriers)

Restricted or no sediment transport around headland Erodible or erodion-resistant shorelines enclosing the flood-tide delta, their proportion depending on local settings.

Sediment deposition (flood-tide delta)

Figure 1. Schematic sketch of re-entrant conditions considered in the Flood-Tide Delta Aggradation Model.

their ood-tide deltas and the adjacent erodible shorelines due to a climate-change induced sea-level rise (Cowell et al., 1996). The majority of studies that have addressed the effects of sea-level rise on coastal environments to date, have focused on shoreline responses per se to sea-level rise (e.g., Bruun, 1962, 1988; Bruun and Schwartz, 1985; Gornitz and Kanciruk, 1989; Gornitz, 1991; Healy, 1991; Leatherman and Nicholls, 1995). This paper focuses on the effects of sea-level rise on the morphology of ood-tide deltas and their adjacent erodible shorelines in coastal re-entrants and erodible shorelines adjacent to coastal re-entrants on the open coast. Despite application of GIS for environmental hazard modelling (Brinkley, 1997) (e.g., modelling of re spreading) little attention has been paid to GIS-based coastal-behaviour modelling (Bartlett, 1999). The GIS-based Flood-Tide Delta Aggradation Model (FTDAM) has been developed to formulate simple algorithms for simulating the potential impacts of rising sea level on coastal re-entrants. The model is based on work undertaken for the Dutch Wadden Sea and has been applied to two eld sites in southeastern Australia (Narrabeen Lagoon and Batemans Bay). 2. Background Coastal re-entrants have been accorded special consideration within coastal and estuarine science and engineering, because of their commercial, recreational and ecological importance (Mehta, 1996). Among the broad range of applications of research on coastal re-entrants, the maintenance of navigation channels has historically been the most important, driving the research into physical processes that determine re-entrant ow characteristics and morphodynamics (Mehta, 1996). Sediments required for the aggradation of the ood-tide delta are received from ocean beaches exposed to wave action and littoral sediment transport as well as ebb-tide deltas. The material is transported through the tidal channel and deposited in lee of the channel on the ood-tide delta (Bruun, 1978). Coastal re-entrants, therefore, often act as sinks for sand (Curray, 1964; Swift, 1976; Eysink, 1991;

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Nicholls, 1993). Indirect effects of sea-level rise such as sediment transport from open-coast beaches or barriers alongshore into coastal re-entrants are often more important with regard to shoreline erosion than offshore sediment transport and deposition described by the two-dimensional Bruun Model (Stive et al., 1990; Nicholls, 1993; Cowell and Thom, 1994). Those indirect effects are modelled in the FTDAM. The FTDAM (Hennecke, 2000; Hennecke and Cowell, 2000) is based on research concerned with potential impacts of rising sea level on the morphology of the Dutch Wadden Sea (Van Straaten, 1954; Eysink, 1991; Peerbolte et al., 1991; Louters and Gerritsen, 1994; Buijsman, 1997; Stive and Wang, 1998). Eysink (1991) and Louters and Gerritsen (1994) suggested that the sediment supply from ebb-tide deltas and barrier islands is sufcient to allow the oor of the Wadden Sea to aggrade approximately at the rate of sea-level rise, though, with some lag in time. The underlying principle here is the assumption that one of the main processes of sedimentation in the Wadden Sea is the vertical deposition and upward growth of horizontal parts of tidal ats approximately at the rate of relative sea-level rise. This assumption is based on work by Van Straaten (1954) and suggests that the water depth of the Wadden Sea remains approximately constant over time. Initially, the tidal volume increases, resulting from an increase in sea level, causing higher water ow velocities in the channels (Peerbolte et al., 1991). The sediment transport capacity increases, leading to higher sediment transport towards the shoals during ood tide. The water level above the shoals increases also, as a result of rising sea level. This increase is relatively large due to the limiting water depth above the shoals, possibly leading to a reduction in sediment transport towards the channel during ebb-tide, and consequently improving conditions for sedimentation in the Wadden Sea (Peerbolte et al., 1991). The tidal channel increases in depth rst, relative due to the increase in the tidal volume (Figure 2). The tidal volume gradually decreases with the rising shoals over time, causing an adjustment of the channel bed. The channel then follows the rising shoals with some lag in time (Figure 3) (Peerbolte et al., 1991). In summary, the sediment volume supplied from outside the Wadden Sea ( Vext. ) is sufcient for the aggradation of the oor of the Wadden Sea; that is Vext. = Vdem., where Vdem. is the sediment demand volume for the aggradation. In southern southeastern Australia, however, the rate of littoral sediment transport is negligible (Chapman et al., 1982). Therefore, the assumption for the FTDAM here is that the external sediment supply is less than the sediment acVdem.. The FTDAM then assumes that commodation space; i.e., Vext. < erodible shorelines along the ood-tide delta supply the remaining sediment demand volume ( Vi ) to allow for the aggradation of the ood-tide delta, causing shoreline recession inside the re-entrant. In addition to the assumptions made above, the FTDAM considers the possibility of an oversupply of sediment for locations where Vext. > Vdem.. The

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Beach SL 1 SL 2 Ds

WERNER G. HENNECKE
Beach

Dagg. Ds Profile 1 (before sea-level rise)

Profile 2 (after sea-level rise)

Flood-Tide Delta Re-entrant Channel

Figure 2. Aggradation of the ood-tide delta following rising sea level. The oor of the ood-tide delta follows the rising sea level while the tidal channel deepens relatively. s = rate of sea-level rise; agg. = rate of ood-tide delta aggradation.
Beach SL 1 Beach SL 2 Ds Dagg. Ds Profile 1 (before sea-level rise)

Profile 2 (after sea-level rise)

Flood-Tide Delta Re-entrant Channel

Figure 3. Aggradation of the ood-tide delta following rising sea level. The tidal channel follows the rising sea level and the aggrading tidal ats with some lag in time.

FTDAM in its current conguration then assumes an even distributed of the sediment surplus along the unconsolidated shorelines inside the re-entrant. The magnitudes of six model parameters (Figure 4) are critical for the rate of shoreline change (R) inside a re-entrant. These are: (1) the size of the ood-tide delta ( A); (2) the rate of sea-level rise ( s); (3) the volume of marine sediments available for the aggradation ( Vm ); (4) the volume of uvial sediments available for the aggradation ( V. ); (5) the length of erodible shorelines along the ood-tide delta ( Les ); and, (6) the dune elevation of erodible shorelines along the ood-tide delta ( Dx ). The demand volume ( Vdem. ) required for the aggradation of the ood-tide delta in any application of the model is a function of the area of the ood-tide delta and the (local or regional) rate of sea-level rise; i.e., Vdem. = A s. (1)

The model assumes initially that the area of the ood-tide delta remains constant over time. However, a decrease of A, for example as a result of land reclamation, can also be considered (Figure 5). Three main sources of sediment supply for the aggradation of the oor of the ood-tide delta are identied as: (1) marine sediments ( Vm ), being transported into the embayment by ood-tide currents and waves;

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DA

DDx

R
Ds DVm + DVfl.
Figure 4. Parameters dening the rate of shoreline change in the FTDAM, where A = area of the ood-tide delta, s = rate of sea-level rise, Vm + V. = external sediment supply, Dx = dune elevation, and Les = length of erodible shorelines.
Fluvial delta / Central basin Upper (landward) limit of the FTD

DLes

Land reclamation

Flood-tide Delta
Lower (seaward) limit of the FTD

Barrier

Re-entrant channel

Barrier

Figure 5. Generalised re-entrant conditions dening the FTDAM.

(2) uvial sediments ( V. ), being deposited in the re-entrant; and, (3) a remaining sediment volume ( Vi ) derived as a result of shorelines recession along the ood-tide delta. More specically, Vm is dened as a combination of three sources of net marine sediment input: (1) littoral sediment transport ( Vlit.); (2) offshore sediment supply ( Voff. ); and, (3) overwash processes ( Vov. ) (Figure 6). The total sediment demand ( Vdem.) for the aggradation of the ood-tide delta can be dened therefore as: Vdem. = Vm + V. + Vi

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Fluvial sediments, DV fl.

WERNER G. HENNECKE

DVi from erodible shoreline, DLes

Flood-tide Delta

Barrier

Re-entrant channel Offshore supply, DV

Barrier
Overwash processes, DV ov.

Littoral transport, DV

lit.

off.

Figure 6. Sediment sources for the aggradation of a ood-tide delta in the FTDAM.

Vlit. +

Voff. +

Vov. +

V. +

Vi .

(2)

The model assumes that the shorelines along the ood-tide delta erode only to supply sediment if the external sediment supply is less than the total demand volume; i.e., ( Vm + V. ) < Vdem. . Hence, the larger ( Vm + V. ) the smaller is Vi and therefore the rate of shoreline recession inside a re-entrant. The magnitude of every component of Vdem. can vary between 0% to >100% of the required sediment volume to raise the oor of the ood-tide delta. As stated above, in a scenario where the sediment supply is greater than 100% of the demand volume, a sediment surplus in the re-entrant occurs according to the model. This surplus results in sediment deposition along the erodible shorelines in the re-entrant; i.e., shoreline progradation. The rate of shoreline change (R) for erodible shorelines inside the embayment is expressed in the FTDAM as a function of the sediment demand ( Vi ) along the erodible shorelines ( Les ) and their dune elevations ( Dx ); i.e., R= Vi ( Les )1 ( Dx )1 . (3)

As such, three general trends of shoreline change are modelled with the FTDAM: (1) shoreline recession in coastal re-entrants where the external sediment supply is less than the total demand volume ( Vm + V. ) < Vdem. ; i.e., Vi > 0 and thus R > 0; (2) the shoreline remains in its position where the external sediment supply matches the demand volume (( Vm + V. ) = Vdem.); i.e., Vi = 0 and thus R = 0; and, (3) shoreline progradation in coastal re-entrants where the external sediment supply exceeds the demand volume ( Vm + V. ) > Vdem. ; i.e., Vi < 0 and thus R < 0.

GIS MODELLING OF SEA-LEVEL RISE INDUCED SHORELINE CHANGES

259

3. GIS Procedures The FTDAM is embedded into a Geographic Information System (Arc/InfoTM ) (Environmental Systems Research Institute, 1995) for modelling the spatial extent of shoreline change. The FTDAM has been designed to use publicly available maps such as nautical charts and 1 : 25,000 topographic maps. Also, the model can run with spatial data of higher resolution if these are available. However, the eld collection of high spatial resolution data, in particular elevation data, is often too costly and time consuming to be applied routinely (Nicholls, 1993). To run the FTDAM, the user of the model must dene boundary conditions, such as the seaward and landward boundaries of the ood-tide delta, and local parameter values for A, s, Vlit., Voff. , Vov. , V. , Les , and Dx . Morphological variations alongshore, such as changes in dune elevation can be taken into account in the GIS if such information is available. In locations where sufciently detailed data are not available, one can utilise best estimates for those parameter values for an initial assessment of the potential extent of shoreline change. The FTDAM can be simply adjusted to local conditions by re-dening or updating parameter values in the GIS database. After denition of the parameter values, the GIS is used to calculate the total demand volume for the aggradation of the ood-tide delta ( Vdem.) as a function of the area and the rate of sea-level rise (Equation 1). The external sediment supply ( Vov. + Vlit. + Voff. + V. ) is subtracted from the total demand volume to determine the sediment volume Vi required from the erodible shorelines adjacent to the ood-tide delta; i.e., Vi = Vdem. ( Vov. + Vrmlit. + Voff. + V. ). (4)

Five generic scenarios of shoreline change for a modelled site are shown in Table I and Figure 7 to illustrate the concept of the FTDAM. Parameter values are set for the area ( A) of the ood delta to aggrade, the rate of sea-level rise ( s), and following Equation (1), the demand volume ( Vdem. ). Also, the length of erodible shorelines ( Les ) and dune elevations ( Dx ) are xed. Only the amount of the external sediment supply ( Vov. + Vlit. + Voff. + V. ) varies in the scenarios outlined below, and subsequently the extent of shoreline change between the ve scenarios. Scenarios 13 describe situations where the sediment supply from outside the re-entrant is less than the sediment required for the aggradation of the ood-tide delta, causing shoreline recession along the ood-tide delta. In Scenario 4, the sediment supply from outside the re-entrant matches the demand volume, the rate of recession equals zero and the shoreline remains unchanged. Scenario 5 nally illustrates a scenario where the external sediment supply is greater than the demand volume. Here, the rate of shoreline recession is negative, resulting in shoreline progradation according to the FTDAM.

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WERNER G. HENNECKE

Table I. Sample FTDAM scenarios for a generic site A showing the range of potential impacts simulated with the GIS-based model. Model scenario A (m2 ) S (m) Vdem. (m3 ) Vlit. (m3 ) Vov. (m3 ) Voff. (m3 ) V. (m3 ) Les (m) Dx (m) R (approx) (m) 1 100,000 0.2 20,000 2,000 5,000 3,000 250 500 2 0.7 2 100,000 0.2 20,000 1,000 3,000 2,000 250 500 2 13.8 3 100,000 0.2 20,000 1,000 1,500 1,000 250 500 2 16.3 4 100,000 0.2 20,000 15,000 3,000 1,750 250 500 2 0 5 100,000 0.2 20,000 18,000 3,000 4,500 250 500 2 5.8

Fluvial sediments, DV

fl.

Recession Scenario 3 Recession Scenario 2 Recession Scenario 1

Erodible shoreline, DLes

Accretion Scenario

No change Scenario

Flood-tide Delta

Barrier

Inlet channel

Barrier
Overwash processes, DV ov.

Littoral transport, DV

lit.

Offshore supply, DV

off.

Figure 7. Range of shoreline changes anticipated with the FTDAM, depending on local conditions.

4. Application of the FTDAM and Field Experimentation Although the FTDAM is based on work for the tide-dominated Dutch Wadden Sea, it is, in principle, applicable also to wave-dominated environments. This is because the model considers the restriction of external sediment supplies for the aggradation of a ood-tide delta in a coastal re-entrant, as outlined above. To examine its applicability in environments other than the Dutch Wadden Sea, the model has been applied to two locations in New South Wales, southeastern Australia. The coast of New South Wales is a drowned embayed coast which is oriented SSW to NNE and exposed to moderately high-energy ocean waves and a small (<2 m) tidal range (Roy and Thom, 1981; Roy, 1984a). Re-entrants in southeastern Australia are dominated by wave-induced sand movements (Roy, 1984b) and the

GIS MODELLING OF SEA-LEVEL RISE INDUCED SHORELINE CHANGES

261

200

400 Kilometres

Narrabeen Sydney CBD

Projection: UTM, Zone 56, AGD66

NEW SOUTH WALES SYDNEY

N.T. W.A. S.A.

Qld. N.S.W. Vic.

Sydney

Batemans Bay

Australia

Tas.

Figure 8. Location of the eld experimentation sites. (Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, CData 1996).

net direction of sediment movement is normally from the inner continental shelf towards the re-entrant (Thom, 1974; Chapman et al., 1982). Characteristic oodtide deltas formed in re-entrants where shelf sands continued to accumulate after Holocene sea levels stabilised about 6,500 years B.P. (Roy, 1984b). Longshore sediment transport is restricted by deeply embayed re-entrants and prominent headlands extending into deep water. Fluvial sand is trapped at the upstream estuary margins of drowned river valleys (Roy and Crawford, 1977; Boyd and Penland, 1984). 4.1. NARRABEEN LAGOON Narrabeen Lagoon is located within the local government area of Warringah Council, approximately 16 km north of Sydneys Central Business District (Figure 8). The re-entrant is separated from the open sea by a 3.4 km long barrier beach (Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach) raising to about 10 m above sea level at its northern end. The beach is bound by Narrabeen Headland in the north and the prominent headland of Long Reef in the south (Figure 9). Sediment transport from the south around Long Reef is negligible (P.S. Roy, personal communication). The FTDAM was applied to investigate the potential response of the ood-tide delta of Narrabeen Lagoon and the adjacent erodible shorelines to a rise in sea level.

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WERNER G. HENNECKE

North Narrabeen Headland

Narrabeen Lagoon

-10 m

-20 m

-24 m

Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach

Collaroy Plateau
0 1 2 Kilometres

Projection: UTM, Zone 56, AGD66

Long Reef Headland

Figure 9. Location of Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach and Narrabeen Lagoon. Source: Central Mapping Authority of New South Wales, 1978. Table II. Sediment demand volume required for the aggradation of the ood-tide delta in Narrabeen Lagoon for a mid-range 50-year (0.2 m) and 100-year (0.49 m) sea-level rise scenario. Scenario 50 y 100 y s (m) 0.20 0.49 A (m2 ) 458.295 458,295 Vdem. (m3 ) 91,659 224,564

A 1 : 25,000 orthophoto map was utilised to digitise relevant sections of the area and to determine the surface area of the ood-tide delta (458,295 m2 , or 22.2% of the total area of the lagoon) (Figure 10). The erodible shoreline along the ood-tide delta was calculated as approximately 5,800 m with an average elevation of about 1.5 m. Estimates for near-future sea-level rise published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1996, 2001) were utilised for a mid-range 50year (0.2 m) and 100-year (0.49 m) scenario. The demand volumes ( Vdem. ) for the aggradation of the ood-tide delta for both scenarios were calculated following Equation (1) and are shown in Table II.

-30 m

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263

North Narrabeen Headland Approximate area dredged in 1995

Flood-tide Delta

each
0 0.5 1 Kilometre

Projection: UTM, Zone 56, AGD66

Figure 10. Area of the ood-tide delta in Narrabeen Lagoon. Figure based on Figure 9.

The entrance of Narrabeen Lagoon is located at the northern end of Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach and frequently inlls with marine sediments, causing its closure approximately every three to ve years (Public Works Department, 1990). Flood waters can re-open the outlet naturally, but at the same time threaten to ood properties adjacent to the Lagoon if the entrance remains closed. As part of their coastal management, Warringah Council dredges the lagoon in a cycle of approximately three to ve years to ensure good water quality in the lagoon and reduce the risk of ash ooding (Public Works Department, 1990). The entrance of the lagoon and part of the ood-tide delta was dredged early in 1995 (Figure 10) but littoral sediment transport along Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach into the lagoon again caused its closure in November 1997. The entrance to the lagoon was re-opened

Colla

roy/N

arrab

Narrabeen Lagoon

een B

Ocean Street

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Table III. Estimate rate of shoreline erosion along Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach as a result of ood-tide delta aggradation in Narrabeen Lagoon. Scenario 50 y 100 y Vdem. (m3 ) 91,659 224,564 Les (m) 3,400 3,400 B (m) 2.5 2.5 R (m) 11 26

WERNER G. HENNECKE

during the Easter Weekend 1998, when heavy rainfall threatened to ood properties adjacent to the lagoon. Based on current sediment regimes, it is anticipated for this modelling experiment that the present sediment transport conditions will continue over the next 50 to 100 years. Therefore, the external sediment supply ( Vext.) is expected to match the demand volume ( Vex. = Vdem. ) required for the aggradation of the ood-tide delta in the next 50 to 100 years even under near-future sea-level rise conditions. The erodible shoreline adjacent to the ood-tide delta (i.e., inside the re-entrant) is not expected to recede under these conditions ( Vi = 0). Therefore, properties located along Narrabeen Lagoon are considered to be safe from shoreline recession. It is anticipated that the littoral sediment transport along Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach causes shoreline recession along the barrier-beach since Long Reef Headland obstructs northward sediment transport and therefore the sediment supply for the beach. The average rate of recession along Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach was determined here as a function of the sediment volume required for the aggradation of the ood-tide delta ( Vdem. ), the length of erodible shoreline along the beach (Les ) and the average beach elevation (B). The average recession rates were calculated as approximately 11 m for the 50-year scenario and 26 m for the 100-year scenario for this model conguration (Table III).

4.2. BATEMANS BAY Batemans Bay is located on the south coast of New South Wales about 300 km south of Sydney (Figure 8). The south-east facing, funnel-shaped drowned rivervalley estuary is approximately 8 km long, 500 m wide near the Princess Highway Bridge, and 5.7 km at its mouth (Figure 11). The Clyde River, one of the larger rivers on the New South Wales south coast with a catchment of approximately 1,800 km2 discharges into Batemans Bay (May et al., 1996). The bay has a total shoreline length of approximately 25 km from Moscito Bay in the south to Three Islet Point in the north, excluding Cullendulla Creek. The total length of erodible, sandy shoreline in the embayment is 12 km. Erosion-resistant shorelines as well as training walls are approximately 13 km long in total. The uvial and littoral

GIS MODELLING OF SEA-LEVEL RISE INDUCED SHORELINE CHANGES

Clyde River

265

Princess Highway Bridge

Cullendulla Creek

CBD -5 m Seawall Three Islet Point Caseys Beach -10 m

-15 m

Erodible (sandy) shorelines Non-erodible (rocky) shorelines Moscito Bay

1.5

3.0 Kilometres

Projection: UTM, Zone 56, AGD66

Figure 11. Erodible and non-erodible shorelines in Batemans Bay. Map source: Hydrographic Service of the Royal Australian Navy, 1985.

sediment supply into the re-entrant is negligible within Batemans Bay (Chapman et al., 1982). A bathymetric chart (1 : 50,000) was utilised for the modelling due to the lack of more detailed bathymetric data. Since precise information was not available for the area of the ood-tide delta, two modelling scenarios were conducted, using different seaward boundaries for the ood-tide delta (10 m, and 15 m depth contours). The landward limit of the ood-tide delta was dened as the shoreline of the embayment and the Princess Highway Bridge for both modelling experiments. The delineated areas for the ood-tide delta for both scenarios are shown in Figure 12. Again, mid-range near-future sea-level rise estimates by the IPCC (1996, 2001) were utilised for a 50-year (0.2 m) and a 100-year (0.49 m) scenario. Based on

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Cullendulla Creek

WERNER G. HENNECKE

Princess Highway Bridge

Three Islet Point

Area of the flood-tide delta

Sb = 10 m Sb = 15 m

Moscito Bay

1.5

3 Kilometres

Projection: UTM, Zone 56, AGD66

Figure 12. Areas of the ood-tide delta for different modelling scenarios in Batemans Bay. Figure based on Figure 11.

Equation (1), the demand volumes for the aggradation of the ood-tide delta for both scenarios were calculated (Table IV). An average dune elevation of 3 m above Mean Sea Level (MSL) was employed for the entire re-entrant, based on work undertaken by the New South Wales Department of Public Works (Public Works Department, 1989). Assuming a negligible marine and uvial sediment supply, the assumption following the FTDAM was that the sediment demand for the aggradation of the ood-tide delta under sea-level rise conditions will be supplied from the erodible shorelines along the ood-tide delta. The average rate of shoreline recession inside the re-entrant for both scenarios was determined following Equation (4). Parameter values employed in this scenario as well as the modelled rates of recession for the 50-year and 100-year sea-level rise and the 10 m and 15 m seaward limit of the ood-tide delta are shown in Table V.

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Table IV. Estimated demand volume for the aggradation of the ood-tide delta for the 0.2 m and 0.49 m sea-level rise scenarios. Seaward Boundary 10 m 15 m Area (m2 ) Demand volume 0.2 m slr (m3 ) 3,925,700 5,322,434 Demand volume 0.49 m slr (m3 ) 9,617,964 13,039,962

19,628,498 26,612,168

Table V. Parameter values and simulated rates of shoreline change in the Batemans Bay experiment. Scenario s (m) h (m) A (m2 ) Vdem. (m3 ) Vm (m2 ) V. (m2 ) Vi (m3 ) Les (m) D (m) R (m) 1 0.2 10 19,628,498 3,925,700 0 0 3,925,700 12,000 3 109 2 0.2 15 26,612,168 5,322,434 0 0 5,322,434 12,000 3 147 3 0.49 10 19,628,498 9,617,964 0 0 9,617,964 12,000 3 267 4 0.49 15 26,612,168 13,039,962 0 0 13,039,962 12,000 3 362

Limitations of the GIS-Model The GIS-based FTDAM is designed to model morphological impacts of rising sea level on erodible shorelines in coastal re-entrants, and the model is capable of accounting for morphological variability alongshore. However, the limitation of the GIS model is that the outcome of a model run provides only a single impact zone at a xed distance from the shoreline (Figure 13). This value, at the same time, is surrounded by an area of uncertainty (Cartwright, 1993), but the GIS model in its current conguration is not yet capable of considering probabilities of shoreline change within a single GIS model scenario. The use of sharply dened boundaries of recession, however, is regarded as misleading especially for coastal management and planning purposes. This is because the probability of shoreline recession does not diminish immediately landward of the calculated impact zone (Cowell et al., 1996). A decision not taking the gradual decrease of impact probability into account may be inappropriate and would not have been made if probability distributions were known.

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WERNER G. HENNECKE

Cullendulla Creek

Princess Highway CBD Bridge

Shoreline Recession

1.5

3.0 Kilometres

Projection: UTM, Zone 56, AGD66

Figure 13. Single impact zone of shoreline recession modelled with the GIS for Batemans Bay. Figure based on Figure 11.

Determining the probability of the hazard, here shoreline recession, provides decision makers with a better understanding of the potential range of hazard impacts. To assess the probability of the hazard, the recession rate modelled with the GIS is utilised as the statistically most likely value for the hazard probability modelling. The probability assessment procedure is shown in Figure 14 and an example outlined below for Batemans Bay. Due to the absence of specic information for the probability assessment procedure in Batemans Bay, a normal frequency distribution was applied for all analyses. Standard deviations (S) for all parameters were based on estimates, due to the lack of detailed data. However, every parameter value can be updated if more detailed information becomes available. Input values and standard deviations for all parameters of all four modelling scenarios are listed in Table V.

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Parameter values (Ds, DA, DVext.)

G el od M rio IS ena Sc

GIS Model scenario

Shoreline Recession (crisp line)

GIS display Hazard probability assessment

Probability assessment of shoreline recession statistical probability of shoreline change =>

Figure 14. Generic probability assessment procedure based on a GIS model result.

The model was run with 15,000 iterations in this experiment to ensure reliable statistics being generated for the modelling output. Running a sufciently high number of iterations means that output distributions become more stable because the statistics describing each distribution change less and less with additional iterations. Choosing a high number of iterations therefore ensures the quality, accuracy and stability of the results (Cartwright, 1993). Statistical probabilities of shoreline change for all scenarios employed in this experiment are presented in Table VI. These probability values were then returned to the GIS model to be displayed as a hazard map, showing hazard in a grading of risk probability classes instead of a single impact zone (Figure 15). 5. Results and Discussion The potential impacts of rising sea level on coastal re-entrants for the next 50 to 100 years have been discussed widely in the last few decades for example

es lu va IS ty G ili to ab ed ob rn Pr etu r
Spatial display in GIS

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Table VI. Hazard probability model parameters and standard deviation for the simulation experiments in Batemans Bay. 0.2 m sea-level rise A V. 50 y Les Vm s D Recession 50 y 0.49 m sea-level rise A s 100 y Vm V. Les D Recession 100 y 19,628,498 0.49 0 0 12,000 3 267 5,000 0.05 500 50 50 0.5 26,612,168 0.49 0 0 12,000 3 362 5,000 0.05 500 50 50 0.5 FTD10 19,628,498 0.2 0 0 12,000 3 109 S 5,000 0.05 500 50 50 0.5 FTD15 26,612,168 0.2 0 0 12,000 3 147 S 5,000 0.05 500 50 50 0.5

Where FTD10 = area of the ood-tide delta with a seaward limit of 10 m; FTD15 = area of the ood-tide delta with a seaward limit of 15 m; S = standard deviations for individual model parameters, based on estimates.

for the Dutch Wadden Sea. The main concern of coastal scientists and engineers investigating the Wadden Sea has been the recession and protection of shorelines outside coastal re-entrants along barrier islands. The prospect of shoreline recession inside coastal re-entrants as a result of rising sea level, however, has not been previously addressed in detail. De Ronde (1993, 1996) showed that the sediment supply from barrier islands and shallow zones of the North Sea is sufcient for the aggradation of the tidal ats in the Wadden Sea, even under sea-level rise conditions anticipated for the next 50 to 100 years. Similar suggestions can be made for Narrabeen Lagoon according to the FTDAM. The littoral sediment transport along Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach at present is sufcient to cause the closure of the entrance to Narrabeen Lagoon approximately every three to ve years. The outcome of the modelling experiment undertaken here suggests that the rate of littoral sediment transport along Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach is sufcient to raise the oor of the ood-tide delta approximately at the rate of sea-level rise over the next 50 to 100 years, causing shoreline recession along the barrier beach. The application of the FTDAM to a location like Batemans Bay, where the sediment supply from outside the re-entrant is negligible, suggests that erodible shorelines inside this re-entrant are likely to recede severely under conditions dened in this experiment. The probability assessment for Batemans Bay suggests

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Cullendulla Creek

Princess Highway CBD Bridge

Impact Scenarios
< 554 m < 368 m < 238 m < 225 m < 208 m < 174 m < 82 m < 61 m
0 1.5 3.0 Kilometres

Projection: UTM, Zone 56, AGD66

Figure 15. Hazard probability modelling, based on results shown in Figure 13. Hazard probabilities are displayed in grey shades. Figure based on Figure 11.

a statistical chance of 5% that the rate of recession is 61 m for the 50 year sealevel rise scenario and a 10 m offshore limit of the ood-tide delta. The statistical worst case scenario suggests a 95% probability that the rate of shoreline recession for a 100 year scenario and a 15 m seaward boundary of the ood-tide delta is 554 m (Table VII). Overall, results derived with the FTDAM, in particular for locations like Batemans Bay, must be regarded as estimates of potential shoreline recession only. Climate change modelling is inherently difcult (Henderson-Sellers, 1993) and GIS model inaccuracies, such as data capturing and processing, add to modelling uncertainties. Further, the simulated rate of recession is potentially higher for the Batemans Bay site than it may experience in reality. This is because the actual sediment volume available from beaches along the ood-tide delta is potentially

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Table VII. Probability range of shoreline recession for Batemans Bay according to the Aggradation-Risk Model. Scenario Seaward limit s 10 m 5% 61 m 208 m 15 m 5% 82 m 225 m

95% 174 m 368 m

95% 238 m 554 m

50 y 100 y

0.2 m 0.49 m

less than the calculated sediment demand. Bedrock close to the surface may limit the sediment volume available to feed the aggrading ood-tide delta. If the required sediment demand is not available; i.e., the oor of the ood-tide delta cannot follow rising sea level, then an increase in the height of the water column is likely to occur. Larger waves inside the re-entrant can be expected as a consequence of the rising water column (resulting from reduced wave breaking and bed friction). The implication is that more frequent overtopping and destruction of protective structures or other assets could occur as a result of a progressive rise in sea level.

6. Conclusions The potential impacts of rising sea level over the next 50 to 100 years have been recognised by a number of countries as a potential future hazard. Detailed information, in particular elevation data, however, is often not available for such hazard assessments. The use of existing information, in combination with coastalbehaviour models, appears to be an appropriate way to simulate shoreline recession under such circumstances. The primary aim of this study was to develop a simple but at the same time widely and easily applicable GIS-based model for simulating shoreline change inside coastal re-entrants. The model had to be applicable to readily and publicly available information, such as topographic maps and boating charts at medium scales. The FTDAM accommodates a range of re-entrant types (barrier-beach reentrants, bay-barrier re-entrants and bays). In combination with data, GIS was utilised to run the model based on parameters values in accordance with local conditions. Nevertheless, the simulation results derived from the modelling experiments served only as an illustration for the potential range of feasible impacts between different locations. GIS-based models may be used as modelling tools that allow users, such as local or regional government authorities, to combine available data from different sources (topography, geology, bathymetry, cadastral data) into a single software. However, issues of uncertainty remain and must be addressed in any model application. Three aspects of uncertainty need to be addressed here:

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(1) the denition of parameter values, such as the rate of sea-level rise or the knowledge of local/regional sediment transport regimes. A best-practice protocol here is simply to adopt information readily available, such as the range of IPCC recommendations for sea-level projections; (2) data-resolution and accuracy. This includes map resolution and GIS-related factors such as inaccuracies in digitising, data conversion and interpolation, as they contribute to the uncertainty and generalisation of the modelling results; and, (3) the validity of models (Oreskes et al., 1994), as they are highly generalised approximations and representations of the real world that often cannot be proved. Overall, the main messages emerging from this study can be summarised as follows: (1) readily available data often provide sufcient information for the initial assessment of sea-level rise impacts on coastal re-entrants. The FTDAM can serve as a tool to simulate and map a rst overview of regional variation in re-entrant susceptibility to sea-level rise; and, (2) the capabilities of GIS allow for the simulation of a range of scenarios based on changes in parameter values. The application of a probability assessment, however, remains crucial in dealing with the unavoidable uncertainty inherent in the results of the modelling. Once the uncertainty has been evaluated, hazard results can be used not only to map impact probabilities, but also to assess economic or ecological vulnerability. Modelling output can be used by (local and regional government) authorities for decisions regarding re-entrant management and planning. Based on these results, coastal managers can decide if further, more detailed investigations with higher spatial resolution data are necessary. Credibility of analyses such as that undertaken in this study is required to make the FTDAM suitable for application. The credibility of this analysis would be enhanced through further study of areas potentially at risk according to the modelling results achieved here. This would be accomplished through the systematic application of the model referred to above. However, this was beyond the scope of this paper and remains future work. Utilising GIS-based models for the evaluation and mapping of hazard impacts can assist local and state authorities in dening the appropriate zoning for an area and describing the conditions for future development and building standards for different coastal settings. This information can be incorporated in the preparation of local and regional plans (such as Local and Regional Environmental Plans (LEP and REP) in Australia) or in the establishment of general setback limits for buildings from the foreshore to reduce the risk of damage or loss in the future. The examples presented here show that GIS-based coastal-behaviour modelling based on readily available data for the gross estimation of sea-level rise impacts is a vital part of coastal re-entrant management in the near future.

274 Acknowledgements

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The author wishes to acknowledge the useful comments provided on this manuscript by Prof. Michael Roberts, A/Prof. Richard Whitlow and Dr Ray Merton.

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