Re: Discussion- Assange Arrested

Email-ID Date From To 1056763 2010-12-07 14:50:44 burton@stratfor.com analysts@stratfor.com

List-Name analysts@stratfor.com One other point is this. Ferreting out his confederates is also key. Find out what other disgruntled rogues inside the tent or outside. Pile on. Move him from country to country to face various charges for the next 25 years. But, seize everything he and his family own, to include every person linked to Wiki. Marko Papic wrote: > Nate makes a good point. The arrest is not necessarily the end of > Julian Assange. He could become a martyr in jail, particularly a > Swedish jail, which I imagine has better amenities than my house. > > > On 12/7/10 7:38 AM, Fred Burton wrote: >> Will take weeks for extradition, unless he waves the process. >> >> DOJ (Holder) won't seek prosecution on their own, but look for the GOP >> (Congress) to press for criminal prosecution. >> >> Be easy to indict. >> >> I would pursue Conspiracy and Political Terrorism charges and declassify >> the death of a source someone which I could link to Wiki. >> >> >> Nate Hughes wrote: >> >>> Other thought is that I kind of feel like a lot of people were coming >>> around to recognizing his astonishing douchebaggery and he was by this >>> point undermining himself and his organization. If he does get tied up >>> in the legal system, does he come out screaming all the louder? And if >>> he does somehow get imprisoned, does he have the potential in >>> incarceration to actually become the sort of inspirational, >>> martryr-like (forgive the euphamism) gure that he always imagined >>> himself to be in the free world? >>> ----------------------------------------------------------------------->>> *From: * Sean Noonan >>> *Date: *Tue, 7 Dec 2010 04:42:58 -0600 (CST) >>> *To: *Analyst List >>> *ReplyTo: * Analyst List >>> *Subject: *Discussion- Assange Arrested >>> >>> We had the discussion below on Friday when it was rst suggested that >>> Assange would be arrested. Here's a bit more: >>> >>> London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and

>>> public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7. He is due to >>> appear in a court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape, accused >>> by two woman in Sweden. Charges of sexual assault rarely are passed >>> through Interpol red notices, like this case, so this is no doubt >>> about trying to disrupt WikiLeaks release of government documents. >>> While it's possible that Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term >>> viability of WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of cables in the >>> short-term and governments will now be concerned about what the >>> organization may release in revenge. >>> >>> see discussion below. (revenge = that encrypted 'security' le) >>> >>> ----------------------------------------------------------------------->>> *From: *"Sean Noonan" >>> *To: *"Analyst List" >>> *Sent: *Friday, December 3, 2010 10:23:51 AM >>> *Subject: *Re: [OS] UK/US/AUSTRALIA/CT- WikiLeaks back online, Assange >>> close to arrest >>> >>> yes, most likely would not stop these. but it could disrupt whatever >>> might be next. >>> >>> Also all this trouble with internet hosting could serve to slow down >>> this set of leaks. And maybe a combination of wikileaks arrest and >>> server shutdowns could stop it. >>> >>> On 12/3/10 9:20 AM, Ben West wrote: >>> >>> If Assange is running the show and his staff isn't as condent as >>> he is, then arresting him now could very well stop the ow of >>> cables. But all it takes is one person to keep it going - or just >>> dump them all at once if it gets too dicey, and these les have >>> been very widely distributed so far. I can't imagine anyone >>> reclaiming all the documents now. >>> >>> >>> On 12/3/2010 8:54 AM, Michael Wilson wrote: >>> >>> yeah also remember there was an article by nytimes i think >>> that alot of people on his staff were uncomfortable with the >>> way things were playing out, so without him there they may >>> loose nerve or come to their better senses >>> >>> On 12/3/10 8:48 AM, Sean Noonan wrote: >>> >>> Yes, like Fred's source pointed out--arrest and trial >>> would just be a political circus. It would probably not >>> disrupt wikileaks. BUT, occasonally a leader makes an >>> organization, and maybe no one as capable will be willing >>> to ll his shoes. Or at least, won't be able to get as >>> much pubilicity for wikileaks. As you also said, it could >>> tarnish both Assange's and Wikileaks' repution. That coul >>> dserve to discredit and undermine the group. Maybe people >>> would be less inclined to leak to it, or the public would

>>> be less inclined to pay attention--or more importantly >>> support wikileaks nancially. Though I admit the chance >>> of this causing the public to pay less attention is >>> minimal, and in fact would probably increase attention on >>> the guy. >>> >>> (though personally, getting a rapist off the street is >>> getting a rapist off the street. Also, his mom owns a >>> puppet theater...) >>> >>> On 12/3/10 8:38 AM, Ben West wrote: >>> >>> What would the overall signicance of his arrest be? >>> It's likely that the les are backed up elsewhere and >>> that someone else could give the go-ahead for >>> releasing them (that could very well already be the >>> case) and if his back-ups are anything like Assange, >>> they would welcome the publicity that would come to >>> them by lling his shoes. >>> >>> If the British got custody of him, they could conduct >>> searches or evidence that would support rape charges >>> and, if they happened to nd material regarding the >>> leaks, that could lead to new charges. But this has >>> been coming for a while, and if Assange was smart, he >>> would have turned over any really sensitive stuff by >>> now, which would decrease the likelihood of police >>> nding anything juicy. >>> >>> Seems to me that all this really does is tarnish his >>> reputation and make him look like scum. It provides >>> some public distraction from all the leaked documents, >>> but doesn't undermine their impact - just undermines >>> the character of the person who facilitated the leaks. >>> >>> any other thoughts? >>> >>> On 12/3/2010 7:40 AM, Sean Noonan wrote: >>> >>> I may have sent this out before- Assange walking >>> out of a CNN interview. >>> >>> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lisa9XTRLb4 >>> >>> just shows how far his head is up his ass. >>> >>> On 12/3/10 7:32 AM, Sean Noonan wrote: >>> >>> looks like Assange is in the UK and they might >>> actually roll on him. >>> >>> On 12/3/10 7:31 AM, Sean Noonan wrote: >>> >>> *OG source

>>> * >>> Net closes on Assange: arrest by British >>> police expected in days* >>> By Mark Hughes and Jerome Taylor >>> Friday, 3 December 2010 >>> http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/net-closes-on-assange-arrest-by-british-police-expectedin-days-2149805.html >>> >>> Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks founder, is >>> expected to be arrested in the coming days >>> after Swedish prosecutors led a new >>> warrant with British authorities. >>> >>> The Independent revealed yesterday that a >>> procedural error with the European Arrest >>> Warrant had delayed the arrest of the >>> 39-year-old Australian, who is wanted in >>> Sweden over sexual allegations but has >>> been in England since October. >>> >>> Police in Gothenburg claim they have now >>> submitted a fresh warrant to the Serious >>> Organised Crime Agency. Soca is expected >>> to instruct Scotland Yard to arrest Mr >>> Assange and have him appear before an >>> extradition hearing although as of last >>> night the Metropolitan Police had yet to >>> receive the warrant. >>> >>> >>> Police sources have previously said that >>> they received a letter from Mr Assange's >>> UK-based lawyer, Mark Stephens, containing >>> information about how to contact Mr >>> Assange should they need to. >>> >>> Details of the new arrest warrant came as >>> a last-ditch attempt to have the >>> allegations against Mr Assange dropped >>> failed. Sweden's highest court upheld the >>> arrest order and refused to let him appeal >>> against a lower court's ruling. >>> >>> Last night, Mr Assange's family spoke of >>> their fears for his safety after >>> increasingly shrill statements from >>> American commentators who have called for >>> his assassination. His mother, Christine >>> Assange, said "the forces that he's >>> challenging are too big". >>> >>> The arrest warrant led with Soca states >>> that he was wanted on suspicion of rape, >>> sexual molestation and unlawful coercion.

>>> But Soca requested a new warrant. A >>> spokeswoman for the Swedish National >>> Police Board told the BBC that the >>> original one had been refused because it >>> listed only the maximum penalty for the >>> most serious crime alleged, rather than >>> for all of the crimes. >>> >>> When the arrest is made, Mr Assange will >>> be taken before an extradition hearing at >>> Westminster magistrates' court. If he >>> refuses to be extradited, a judge will >>> preside over an extradition hearing and >>> will rule whether he should be sent to >>> Sweden or discharged. >>> >>> Last night, Mr Stephens said he would >>> challenge any arrest in British courts. >>> "The process in this case has been so >>> utterly irregular that the chances of a >>> valid arrest warrant being submitted to me >>> are very small," he said. Mr Stephens has >>> accused Swedish prosecutors of launching a >>> witch-hunt against his client, who >>> strongly denies the rape allegations and >>> says he is being smeared because of the >>> exposs published by his website. >>> >>> He has maintained that Swedish prosecutors >>> have yet to provide any evidence against >>> Mr Assange and have ignored his requests >>> to meet with them. He also expressed >>> concerns at the way the UK and Swedish >>> authorities were handling the case. >>> >>> "I feel like I am sitting in the middle of >>> a surreal Swedish fairytale," he said. >>> "The trolls keep threatening to come on >>> and keep making noises off stage. But at >>> the moment, no appearance from them." >>> >>> In an interview with an Australian >>> newspaper, Mr Assange's mother defended >>> her son and lambasted hawks in the US who >>> have called for his death. >>> >>> Ms Assange, who runs a puppet theatre in >>> Noosa, a Queensland beach resort, defended >>> her son's decision to publish thousands of >>> classied US documents on the website. >>> "He sees what he's doing as doing a good >>> thing in the world ghting baddies, if >>> you like," she told Queensland's Courier-Mail. >>>

>>> Ms Assange who does not even own a >>> computer described her son as a hero of >>> the internet. But she added that she >>> feared he had "gotten too smart for >>> himself", saying: "I'm concerned it's >>> gotten too big and the forces that he's >>> challenging are too big." She did not want >>> him "hunted down and jailed". >>> >>> On 12/3/10 7:24 AM, Sean Noonan wrote: >>> >>> *WikiLeaks back online, Assange close >>> to arrest* >>> >>> Updated 2 hours 45 minutes ago >>> http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/12/03/3084384.htm >>> >>> The WikiLeaks website is back online >>> with a new Swiss address after its >>> previous domain name was killed. >>> >>> The whistleblower website's original >>> domain host, EveryDNS.net, says it >>> terminated its services because >>> Wikileaks had been coming under >>> "massive" cyber attacks. >>> >>> The new address - wikileaks.ch - was >>> put online six hours after the >>> original site wikileaks.org was killed. >>> >>> An internet trace of the new domain >>> name suggests that the site itself is >>> still hosted in Sweden and in France. >>> >>> Web users accessing the wikileaks.ch >>> address are directed to a page under >>> the URL http://213.251.145.96/ which >>> gives them access to the former site, >>> including a massive trove of leaked US >>> diplomatic trafc. >>> >>> The WikiLeaks website released more >>> than 250,000 secret US diplomatic >>> cables this week, which has left >>> governments around the world >>> scrambling to deal with the fallout. >>> >>> Meanwhile, British media reports >>> Scotland Yard could arrest the site's >>> founder Julian Assange within days. >>> >>> Prosecutors in Sweden want to question >>> Mr Assange over alleged sex crimes

>>> involving two women during a visit to >>> Stockholm in August. >>> >>> Mr Assange, who was born in Australia, >>> has not been charged and he denies the >>> allegations. >>> >>> He reportedly avoided arrest this week >>> because Swedish authorities had lled >>> out an Interpol red notice incorrectly. >>> >>> Britain's Independent newspaper >>> reports that police know Mr Assange's >>> whereabouts in England and are >>> expected to arrest him in the coming days. >>> >>> Mr Assange's Stockholm-based lawyer >>> Bjoern Hurtig says he will ght his >>> client's extradition to Sweden in the >>> event of his arrest. >>> >>> "Together with my British colleague >>> Mark Stephens and international >>> experts, we will ght the extradition >>> warrants," he said. >>> >>> A WikiLeaks spokesman says Mr Assange >>> has to remain out of the public eye >>> because he is facing assassination >>> threats following the whistleblowing >>> website's publication of the secret >>> cables. >>> >>> Several US senators have also called >>> for him to be charged with espionage. >>> >>> Senator Dianne Feinstein says the leak >>> is a serious breach of national >>> security and action must be taken. >>> >>> "We have reviewed the espionage >>> statutes and we believe it qualies," >>> she said. >>> >>> "That this, allowed to be carried out, >>> incapacitates this nation to carry out >>> business." >>> ->>> >>> Sean Noonan >>> >>> Tactical Analyst >>> >>> Ofce: +1 512-279-9479

>>> >>> Mobile: +1 512-758-5967 >>> >>> Strategic Forecasting, Inc. >>> >>> www.stratfor.com >>> >>> >>> ->>> >>> Sean Noonan >>> >>> Tactical Analyst >>> >>> Ofce: +1 512-279-9479 >>> >>> Mobile: +1 512-758-5967 >>> >>> Strategic Forecasting, Inc. >>> >>> www.stratfor.com >>> >>> >>> ->>> >>> Sean Noonan >>> >>> Tactical Analyst >>> >>> Ofce: +1 512-279-9479 >>> >>> Mobile: +1 512-758-5967 >>> >>> Strategic Forecasting, Inc. >>> >>> www.stratfor.com >>> >>> >>> ->>> >>> Sean Noonan >>> >>> Tactical Analyst >>> >>> Ofce: +1 512-279-9479 >>> >>> Mobile: +1 512-758-5967 >>> >>> Strategic Forecasting, Inc. >>> >>> www.stratfor.com >>> >>> >>> --

>>> Ben West >>> Tactical Analyst >>> STRATFOR >>> Austin, TX >>> >>> >>> >>> ->>> >>> Sean Noonan >>> >>> Tactical Analyst >>> >>> Ofce: +1 512-279-9479 >>> >>> Mobile: +1 512-758-5967 >>> >>> Strategic Forecasting, Inc. >>> >>> www.stratfor.com >>> >>> >>> ->>> Michael Wilson >>> Senior Watch Ofcer, STRATFOR >>> Ofce: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112 >>> Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> ->>> Ben West >>> Tactical Analyst >>> STRATFOR >>> Austin, TX >>> >>> >>> >>> ->>> >>> Sean Noonan >>> >>> Tactical Analyst >>> >>> Ofce: +1 512-279-9479 >>> >>> Mobile: +1 512-758-5967 >>> >>> Strategic Forecasting, Inc. >>> >>> www.stratfor.com >>> >>>

>>> >>> ->>> Sean Noonan >>> Tactical Analyst >>> Ofce: +1 512-279-9479 >>> Mobile: +1 512-758-5967 >>> Strategic Forecasting, Inc. >>> www.stratfor.com >>> >>> >>> > > -> >----------------> > Marko Papic > > Geopol Analyst - Eurasia > > STRATFOR > > 700 Lavaca Street - 900 > > Austin, Texas > > 78701 USA > > P: + 1-512-744-4094 > > marko.papic@stratfor.com >