3

Risk Assessment
Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP) Ministry of Food and Disaster Management Government of the Peoples Republic of Bangladesh
ReportOn
Risk Assessment of Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet City Corporation Area
Main Report
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Risk Assessment
Tableofcontents
1Introduction 1.1BackgroundInformation 1.2RiskAssessmentMethodology 2GeneralDescriptionoftheStudyArea 2.1DhakaCityCorporationArea 2.2ChittagongCityCorporationArea 2.3SylhetCityCorporationArea 3BuildingandLifelineInventory 3.1 BuildingInventory 3.2 EssentialFacilityInventory 3.3 LifelineInventory 3.3.1 TransportationandUtilityInventory 3.3.2 RestorationTime 3.3.3 ReplacementValue 4GeologicalDataandHazard 4.1SoilClassification 4.2GroundFailure 4.2.1Liquefaction 4.2.2Landslide 5EarthquakeScenarioParameters 6HAZUSCalculationsandAnalysis 6.1DirectEarthquakeDamage 6.1.1BuildingDamage 6.1.2EssentialFacilitiesDamage 6.1.3TransportationandUtilityDamage 6.2InducedEarthquakeDamage 6.2.1FireFollowingEarthquake 6.2.2DebrisGeneration 6.3SocialImpactCasualties Page 11 11 11 21 21 21 21 31 31 31 33 33 37 38 41 41 43 43 46 51 61 61 61 614 621 627 627 628 629 ii
Risk Assessment 6.4EconomicLoss 6.4.1BuildingLosses 6.4.2TransportationandUtilityLosses
636 636 638
APPENDIX AppendixA:RegionalPopulationandBuildingValueData AppendixB:CorrelationMatrixinuse AppendixC:HAZUSinputtingParameters

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ListofTable
Table 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 310 311 41 42 43 44 45 46 51 52 53 61 62 TransportationSystemInventoryofDhakaCityCorporationArea UtilitySystemInventoryofDhakaCityCorporationArea TransportationSystemInventoryofChittagongCityCorporationArea UtilitySystemInventoryofChittagongCityCorporationArea TransportationSystemInventoryofSylhetCityCorporationArea UtilitySystemInventoryofSylhetCityCorporationArea DistortionofSegmentLengthduetoCoordinateSystemTransformation RestorationTimeofPotableWaterPipelineinBangladesh ReplacementValueofLifelineComponents TypicalBridgeConstructionCostBasedonStructureType andSurfaceArea BridgeReplacementValueinDhaka,Chittagong,andSylhet ThenumberofclustersineachCityCorporation LiquefactionSusceptibilityofSedimentaryDeposits GeomorphologicalunitandSusceptibilityinDhaka GeomorphologicalunitandSusceptibilityinChittagong GeomorphologicalunitandSusceptibilityinSylhet LandslideSusceptibilityofGeologicGroups EarthquakeScenarioParametersforDhakaCityCorporationArea EarthquakeScenarioParametersforChittagongCityCorporationArea EarthquakeScenarioParametersforSylhetCityCorporationArea ExpectedBuildingDamagebyOccupancyClassinDhakaCityCorporationArea: Scenariocase1 ExpectedBuildingDamagebyBuildingTypeinDhakaCityCorporationArea: Scenariocase1 311 41 44 46 46 47 411 52 52 52 61 61 Page 33 34 34 35 35 36 36 38 310 311
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Risk Assessment Table Page
63 64
ExpectedBuildingDamagebyOccupancyClassinDhakaCityCorporationArea: Scenariocase2 ExpectedBuildingDamagebyBuildingTypeinDhakaCityCorporationArea: Scenariocase2 ExpectedBuildingDamagebyOccupancyClassinDhakaCityCorporationArea: Scenariocase3 ExpectedBuildingDamagebyBuildingTypeinDhakaCityCorporationArea: Scenariocase3 ExpectedBuildingDamagebyOccupancyClassinDhakaCityCorporationArea: Scenariocase4 ExpectedBuildingDamagebyBuildingTypeinDhakaCityCorporationArea: Scenariocase4 ExpectedBuildingDamagebyOccupancyClassinChittagongCityCorporation Area:ScenarioCase1 ExpectedBuildingDamagebyBuildingTypeinChittagongCityCorporation Area:ScenarioCase1 ExpectedBuildingDamagebyOccupancyClassinChittagongCityCorporation Area:ScenarioCase2 ExpectedBuildingDamagebyBuildingTypeinChittagongCityCorporation Area:ScenarioCase2
62 62 63 63 64 64 65 65 66 66
65 66 67 68 69 610 611 612
613 614 615 616 617
ExpectedBuildingDamagebyOccupancyClassinChittagongCityCorporation Area:ScenarioCase3 ExpectedBuildingDamagebyBuildingTypeinChittagongCityCorporation Area:ScenarioCase3 ExpectedBuildingDamagebyOccupancyClassinChittagongCityCorporation Area:ScenarioCase4 ExpectedBuildingDamagebyBuildingTypeinChittagongCityCorporation Area:ScenarioCase4 ExpectedBuildingDamagebyOccupancyClassinSylhetCityCorporation Area:ScenarioCase1
67 67 68 68 69
Risk Assessment 618 619 ExpectedBuildingDamagebyBuildingTypeinSylhetCityCorporationArea: ScenarioCase1 ExpectedBuildingDamagebyOccupancyClassinSylhetCityCorporation Area:ScenarioCase2 620 ExpectedBuildingDamagebyBuildingTypeinSylhetCityCorporation Area:ScenarioCase2 621 ExpectedBuildingDamagebyOccupancyClassinSylhetCityCorporation Area:ScenarioCase3 622 ExpectedBuildingDamageinSylhetCityCorporation Area:ScenarioCase3 623 624 ExpectedBuildingDamagebyOccupancyClass inSylhetCityCorporation Area:ScenarioCase4 ExpectedBuildingDamageinSylhetCityCorporation Area:ScenarioCase4 625 626 ExpectedBuildingDamagebyOccupancyClassinSylhetCityCorporation Area:ScenarioCase5 ExpectedBuildingDamageinSylhetCityCorporation Area:ScenarioCase5 627 628 629 630 631 632 633 ExpectedDamagetoEssentialFacilitiesinDhakaCityCorporationArea: Scenariocase1 ExpectedDamagetoEssentialFacilitiesinDhakaCityCorporationArea: Scenariocase2 ExpectedDamagetoEssentialFacilitiesinDhakaCityCorporationArea :Scenariocase3 ExpectedDamagetoEssentialFacilitiesinDhakaCityCorporationArea :Scenariocase4 ExpectedDamagetoEssentialFacilitiesinChittagongCityCorporationArea: ScenarioCase1 ExpectedDamagetoEssentialFacilitiesinChittagongCityCorporationArea: ScenarioCase2 ExpectedDamagetoEssentialFacilitiesinChittagongCityCorporationArea: ScenarioCase3 614 614 615 615 616 616 617 613 613 612 612 611 611 610 610 69
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Risk Assessment Table 634 635 636 637 638 638 640 641 642 643 644 645 646 647 648 649 650 651 652 653 654 ExpectedDamagetoEssentialFacilitiesinChittagongCityCorporationArea: ScenarioCase4 ExpectedDamagetoEssentialFacilitiesinSylhetCityCorporationArea: ScenarioCase1 ExpectedDamagetoEssentialFacilitiesinSylhetCityCorporationArea: ScenarioCase2 ExpectedDamagetoEssentialFacilitiesinSylhetCityCorporationArea: ScenarioCase3 ExpectedDamagetoEssentialFacilitiesinSylhetCityCorporationArea: ScenarioCase4 ExpectedDamagetoEssentialFacilitiesinSylhetCityCorporationArea: ScenarioCase5 ExpectedDamagetotheTransportationSystemsinDhakaCityCorporation Area ExpectedUtilitySystemFacilityDamageinDhakaCityCorporationArea ExpectedUtilitySystemPipelineDamageinDhakaCityCorporationArea ExpectedDamagetotheTransportationSystemsinChittagongCityCorporation Area ExpectedUtilitySystemFacilityDamageinChittagongCityCorporationArea ExpectedUtilitySystemPipelineDamageinChittagongCityCorporationArea ExpectedDamagetotheTransportationSystemsinSylhetCityCorporation Area ExpectedUtilitySystemFacilityDamageinSylhetCityCorporationArea ExpectedUtilitySystemPipelineDamageinSylhetCityCorporationArea FireFollowingEarthquakeinDhakaCityCorporationArea FireFollowingEarthquakeinChittagongCityCorporationArea FireFollowingEarthquakeinSylhetCityCorporationArea DebrisGenerationinDhakaCityCorporationArea DebrisGenerationinChittagongCityCorporationArea DebrisGenerationinSylhetCityCorporationArea Page 617 618 618 619 619 620 621 622 622 623 624 624 625 626 626 627 627 627 628 628 628 vii
Risk Assessment Table 655 Asummaryofthecasualtiesestimatedforearthquakein DhakaCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase1 656 Asummaryofthecasualtiesestimatedforearthquakein DhakaCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase2 657 Asummaryofthecasualtiesestimatedforearthquakein DhakaCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase3 658 Asummaryofthecasualtiesestimatedforearthquakein DhakaCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase4 659 Asummaryofthecasualtiesestimatedforearthquakein ChittagongCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase1 660 Asummaryofthecasualtiesestimatedforearthquakein ChittagongCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase2 661 Asummaryofthecasualtiesestimatedforearthquakein ChittagongCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase3 662 Asummaryofthecasualtiesestimatedforearthquakein ChittagongCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase4 663 ASummaryofthecasualtiesestimatedforearthquakein SylhetCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase1 664 Asummaryofthecasualtiesestimatedforearthquakein SylhetCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase2 665 Asummaryofthecasualtiesestimatedforearthquakein SylhetCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase3 666 Asummaryofthecasualtiesestimatedforearthquakein SylhetCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase4 667 Asummaryofthecasualtiesestimatedforearthquakein SylhetCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase5 668 BuildingRelatedEconomicLossEstimates(Millionsofdollars)inDhakaCity CorporationArea 636 635 635 634 634 633 633 632 632 631 631 630 630 Page 629
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Risk Assessment Table 669 BuildingRelatedEconomicLossEstimates(Millionsofdollars)inChittagong CityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase2 BuildingRelatedEconomicLossEstimates(Millionsofdollars)inSylhetCity CorporationArea:ScenarioCase3 TransportationSystemEconomicLossesinDhakaCityCorporationArea (inmillionofdollars) 672 UtilitySystemEconomicLossesinDhakaCityCorporationArea (inmillionofdollars) 673 TransportationSystemEconomicLossesinChittagongCityCorporationArea (inmillionofdollars) 674 UtilitySystemEconomicLossesinChittagongCityCorporationArea (inmillionofdollars) 675 TransportationSystemEconomicLossesinSylhetCityCorporationArea (inmillionofdollars) 676 UtilitySystemEconomicLossesinSylhetCityCorporationArea (inmillionofdollars) 643 642 641 640 639 Page 636
670 671
637 638

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ListofFigure
Figure 11 21 22 23 31 41 42 FlowchartofHAZUSEarthquakeRiskAssessmentMethodology Thedistributionofbuildingsin3cities TransportationsystemsinDhaka,ChittagongandSylhetCityCorporationAreas UtilitysystemsinDhaka,ChittagongandSylhetCityCorporationAreas ThelocationsoftheessentialfacilitiesinDhaka,ChittagongandSylhetCity CorporationAreas SoilClassfromOICandSoilClassascompatibleformatforHAZUS LiquefactionsusceptibilityfromOICandSoilClassascompatibleformat forHAZUS 43 44 45 46 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 510 SpotHeightdataandDigitalElevationModel(DEM)ineachCityCorporation Slopeindegreeandgeologicgroupineachcitycorporation CriticalAccelerationasaFunctionofGeologicGroupandSlopeAngle LandslideSusceptibilitiesineachCityCorporation EarthquakeFaultZones PGAinDhaka(OICresults)comparedwithHAZUScalculations Sa(T=0.3sec)inDhakacomparedwithHAZUScalculations Sa(T=1.0sec)inDhakacomparedwithHAZUScalculations PGAinChittagong(OICresults)comparedwithHAZUScalculations Sa(T=0.3sec)inChittagongcomparedwithHAZUScalculations Sa(T=1.0sec)inChittagongcomparedwithHAZUScalculations PGAinSylhet(OICresults)comparedwithHAZUScalculations Sa(T=0.3sec)inSylhetcomparedwithHAZUScalculations Sa(T=1.0sec)inSylhetgcomparedwithHAZUScalculations 48 412 414 415 51 53 55 56 58 510 511 513 515 517 Page 13 22 23 24 32 41 45
Risk Assessment
ExecutiveSummary
This report presents a seismic risk assessment of the buildings, essential facilities and lifelines based on a GIS database that was developed from existing secondary data and field survey in Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet City Coproration areas. The assessment provides forecasts of damage and human and economic impacts in those study areas that may result from an earthquake. The analyses are run on HAZUS software package. HAZUS risk assessment methodology include interdependent modules of (1) potential earth science hazard assessment, (2) inventory of buildings, essential facilities and lifelines, (3) direct physical damage calculation, (4)inducedphysicaldamagecalculation,and(5)directeconomic/sociallosses. To run the assessment, city corporation wards are divided into smaller area called cluster to providedetaillevelofdataandresults.InDhakaCityCorporationarea,thereare552clustersin91 wards (90 ward and cantonment area). While 41 wards Chittagong City Corporation are divided into285clusters,and27wardsofSylhetCityCorporationinto82clusters. It is estimated that there are 326,000, 182,000, and 52,000 buildings in Dhaka, Chittagong, and Sylhet City Corporation Areas respectively, which have an aggregate total replacement value of 16,759millionsofdollarsforDhaka,3,400millionsofdollarsforChittagong,and940millionsof dollarsforSylhet.ThetotalpopulationofDhaka,ChittagongandSylhetareapproximately7.2,2.3 and0.4millionsrespectively. There are 600 hospitals, 2,737 schools, 10 fire stations, 62 police stations and 18 emergency response agency offices in Dhaka City Corporation area. While in Chittagong, there are 162 hospitals, 1,033 schools, 12 fire stations, 11 police stations and 11 emergency response agency offices.AndinSylhet,thereare87hospitals,211schools,2firestations,6policestations,and9 emergencyresponseagencyoffices. The lifeline inventory in Dhaka City Corporation area includes over 1,270 kilometers of highway road, 10 highway bridges, and 2,582 kilometers of potable water, waste water, and gas pipes. WhileinChittagong,thelifelinesinclude639kilometersofhighwayroad,4highwaybridges,and 792 kilometers of potable water and gas pipes. In Sylhet, the lifelines include 148 kilometers of highwayroad,2highwaybridges,and268kilometersofpotablewaterandgaspipes. Foreachcitycorporationarea,threeearthquakescenarios(Scenario13)wereselectedfromthe studyofSeismicHazardDeterministicAnalysis.Amongthese,twocaseswereselectedfromfive fault models given in SHA and the other were selected from TAG comment that earthquake of moment magnitude 6.0 has potential to occur beneath each city. While from Seismic Hazard Probabilistic Analysis, one scenario (Scenario 4) was selected for Dhaka and Chittagong City
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Risk Assessment Corporation Areas, and two scenarios (Scenario 4 and 5) for Sylhet City Corporation Area. The worst scenario for Dhaka City Corporation Area is Scenario 4, while for Chittagong and Sylhet is Scenario1and5respectively. For the worst case scenario, HAZUS estimates that about 270,604 buildings will be at least moderately damaged in Dhaka City Corporation area. This is over 83% of the total number of buildingsinthestudyarea.Thereareanestimated238,164buildingsthatwillbedamagedbeyond repair. While in Chittagong, there are about 168,150 buildings will be at least moderately damaged,andthisisover92%ofthetotalnumberofbuildingsinthecity.Thereareanestimated 142,855 buildings that will be damaged beyond repair. In Sylhet, HAZUS estimates that about 51,858buildingswillbeatleastmoderatelydamaged.Thisisover99.50%ofthetotalnumberof buildingsinthecity.Thereareanestimated50,879buildingsthatwillbedamagedbeyondrepair. Inlifelinesystem,10,4,and2(all)majorhighwaybridgeswillbeatleastmoderatelydamagein Dhaka, Chittagong, and Sylhet. It is estimated 748 potable water facilities, 7 gas compressor stations,and54,815electricalpowerfacilitieswillbeatleastmoderatelydamageinDhaka.While inChittagong,72potablewaterfacilities,22gascompressorstations,and28,407electricalpower facilitieswillbeatleastmoderatelydamage.AndinSylhettherewillbe18potablewaterfacilities, 1 gas compressor stations, and 9,057 electrical power facilities at least moderately damage. For theutilitynetwork,therewillbearound1016leakandbreakofpotablewaterpipelineand684 leak and break of natural gas pipeline in Dhaka. In Chittagong it will be around 727 leaks and breaksofpotablewaterpipelineand229leaksandbreaksofnaturalgaspipeline.InSylhet,itwill bearound122leaksandbreaksofpotablewaterpipelineand97leaksandbreaksofnaturalgas pipeline. Theearthquakeintheworstcasescenariowillgenerate72,17,and5millionsoftonofdebrisin Dhaka, Chittagong, and Sylhet respectively. It will also trigger 107 ignitions of fire following earthquakeinDhaka,36ignitionsinChittagong,and13inSylhet. Beforetheearthquake,thereare59,849hospitalbedsavailableforuseinDhakaCityCorporation area.Onthedayoftheearthquakewiththeworstcasescenario,themodelestimatesthatonly 7,441 hospital beds (12%) are available for use by patients already in the hospital and those injuredbytheearthquake.WhileinChittagong,thereare21,664hospitalbedsavailableforuse. Withtheworstcaseearthquakescenario,HAZUSestimatesthatonly923hospitalbeds(4%)are availableforusebypatientsalreadyinthehospitalandthoseinjuredbytheearthquake.InSylhet there are 8,722 hospital beds available for use, and in worst case earthquake scenario it is estimatedthatonly17hospitalbeds(0%)areavailableforusebypatientsalreadyinthehospital andthoseinjuredbytheearthquake. Regarding fatalities in the worst case scenario, HAZUS estimates the number of killed victims is 260,788, 95,183 and 20,708 for Dhaka, Chittagong, and Sylhet respectively if the earthquake xii
Risk Assessment occurs during night time (2:00AM). If the earthquake occurs during day time (2:00PM), the numberofvictimsis183,450,73,213and14,276forDhaka,Chittagong,andSylhetrespectively. Intheworstcasescenario,estimatedtotalbuildingrelatedeconomiclossesare15,603millionsof dollars,3,112millionsofdollars,and1,105millionsofdollarsinDhaka,Chittagong,andSylhetCity Corporationareasrespectively.Whileforthelifeline,thelossesare364,244,and117millionsof dollarinDhaka,Chittagong,andSylhetrespectively.
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1.Introduction
1.1. BackgroundInformation
Overthepastdecades,urbanizationinBangladeshhasbeenrapidlytakingplacewithoutproper guidance. As a result many of the urban centers have developed haphazardly. These urban centers are fast growing and influence the economic developments of the country. It is thereforeessentialtohavearealisticunderstandingonthenature,severityandconsequences of likely damage/loss that a possible event of earthquake could cause. A strong earthquake affecting a major urban center like Dhaka, Chittagong, or Sylhet may result in damage and destructions of massive proportions and may have disastrous consequences for the entire nation. Considering this reality, the Comprehensive Disaster management Programme (CDMP) of the Government of Bangladesh (GoB) is being implemented by the Ministry of Food and Disaster Management (MoFDM) and is supported by UNDP, DFIDB and the EC. CDMP is designed to strengthen the Bangladesh Disaster Management System and more specifically to achieve a paradigmshiftfromreactiveresponsetoaproactiveriskreductionculture.UnderComponent 4a, CDMP has assigned responsibility to Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) for implementationofSeismicHazardandVulnerabilityMappingofDhaka,ChittagongandSylhet CityCorporationareas. This report presents the seismic risk assessment of Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet City Corporationareasacontinuationofthepreviousreportonvulnerabilityassessment.Chapter onedescribestheprojectbackgroundandriskassessmentmethodology.Chaptertwopresents the general description of the study areas in Dhaka, Chittagong, and Sylhet City Corporation. Chapterthreereportstheinventoryoftheassessedcomponentsatriskthatincludebuildings, essential facilities, and lifelines. Chapter four describe the earthquake scenarios that are considered for the risk assessment. Chapter five reports the risk assessment calculation and analysis results made by the HAZUS model. The results of risk assessment include: direct earthquake damage, induced earthquake damage, casualties, and economic losses to the componentsatrisk.
1.2. RiskAssessmentMethodology
Theseismicriskassessmentdescribesthescaleandtheextentofdamageanddisruptionthat mayresultfrompotentialearthquakes.Damageandriskassessmentforseismichazardprovide forecastsofdamageandhumanandeconomicimpactsthatmayresultfromearthquake.The scopeofworkcoverstheriskassessmentofgeneralbuildingstock,essentialfacilities(hospitals,
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Risk Assessment emergencyoperationcenters,schools)andlifelines(transportationandutilitysystems).Inthis project, the risk assessment is executed using the HAZUS software package. HAZUS was developedbytheUnitedStatesFederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA)andNational Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS). It is a powerful risk assessment software program for analyzingpotentiallossesfromdisastersonaregionalbasis.Thisriskassessmentschemecan be used primarily by local, regional, and central government officials to plan and stimulate effortstoreducerisksfromearthquakesandtoprepareforemergencyresponseandrecovery. HAZUS operates through a Geographic Information System (GIS) application i.e. ESRI ArcGIS platform.ForriskassessmentanalysesofDhaka,Chittagong,andSylhetCityCorporationareas, defaultsdatabasesfortheUnitedStatesarereplacedwithBangladeshdatabasesofthe3cities. Ground shaking is characterized quantitatively using peak ground accelerations and spectral responseaccelerations.HAZUSmethodologyaggregatesthegeneralbuildingstocksonacluster basis, but is sitespecific for essential facilities and lifelines. The transportation and utility lifeline losses are combined in one package with losses associated with the general building stockandessentialfacilities. TheframeworkoftheHAZUSriskassessmentmethodologyincludessixmajormodulesshown inFigure11.Asindicatedbythearrowsinthefigure,themodulesareinterdependentwiththe output of one module acting as input to another. Explanation of every module is given as follows. 1. PotentialEarthScienceHazards(PESH) PESH module estimates ground motion and ground failure. Ground motion demands, for example, peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration, are estimated based on earthquakesourceparameters,attenuationrelationsandgeologicaldata.Groundfailurewhich is caused by landslides, liquefaction and surface fault rupture are quantified by permanent grounddeformation(PGD).ThisPGDisdeterminedbasedontopologicaldata,geologicaldata andgroundwaterdepth. 2. Inventory Theinventorycontainstoolsfordescribingthephysicalinfrastructureanddemographicsofthe studyareain3cities.Itusesstandardizedclassificationsystemsforthegroupsofcomponents atrisk:(a)generalbuildingstock,(b)essentialfacilities,(c)transportationsystemcomponents, and(d)utilitysystemcomponents.Thesegroupsaredefinedtoaddressdistinctinventoryand modelingcharacteristics.AnextensiveamountofGISdatabaseisutilizedtodevelopdatasetfor thesegroups. The general building stock is classified by occupancy (residential, commercial, etc.) and by model building type (structural system and material, height). Characteristic relationships 1-2
Risk Assessment between occupancy and structure types are developed based on building survey data. Populationdataisderivedfromtheaverageofbuildingoccupantsperunitbuildingfloorarea, which is obtained from the building survey. Estimates for building exposure are based on for building replacement costs (dollars per square foot) for each model building type and occupancyclassthathasbeenmodifiedtolocal/Bangladeshcost.Datasetofessentialfacilities lifelinesaredevelopedfromGISdatabaseandsecondarysources(serviceproviderauthority), clarifiedandenhancedthroughthefieldsurvey.
Figure 1-1 Flowchart of HAZUS Earthquake Risk Assessment Methodology
3. DirectPhysicalDamage This module provides damage estimates in terms of probabilities of occurrence for specific damage states given in a specified level of ground motion and ground failure. Estimates also
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Risk Assessment includelossoffunction toessentialfacilitiesandlifelinesandtheanticipatedserviceoutages forpotablewaterandelectricpower. For buildings, the capacitydemand spectrum method as implied by HAZUS is utilized for the estimationofseismicdemand.Theestimatedseismicdemandis,thus,usedtodeterminethe probability of being in a particular damage state through fragility functions. However, the seismic performance of buildings in Bangladesh is different from that of United States. As a result,anewsetofbuildingcapacityspectrumandfragilityfunctionsweredevelopedbasedon thefieldsurveydataandcomprehensivenumericalanalyses. For both essential facilities and general building stock, damage state probabilities are determinedforeachfacilityorstructuralclass.Damageisexpressedintermsofprobabilitiesof occurrenceofspecificdamagestates,givenalevelofgroundmotionandgroundfailure.Five damagestatesareidentifiednone,slight,moderate,extensiveandcomplete. Forlifeline,themethodologyfocusesuponestimatingdamageandrestorationtimesforevery system of transportation (highway, railway, bus, and ferry) and utility (potable water, waste water, natural gas, electric power, communication). Overall fragility curves for a system are evaluatedusingfaulttreelogictocombinecomponentsfragilitycurves.Thehazardistypically representedbypeakgroundaccelerationandpermanentgrounddeformation.Utilizingoverall fragility curves, damage state probabilities are calculated for the lifeline components. Restorationtimes areevaluated fromverysimplified rules, relatingtodegreeofdamage and sizeofcomponent. 4. InducedPhysicalDamage Oncedirectphysicaldamageisavailable,induceddamagecanbeevaluated.Induceddamageis defined as the secondary consequences of a natural hazard other than damage due to the primaryhazard(earthquake)thatledtolosses.Here,themethodologycalculatesdamagedue tofirefollowinganearthquakeandtonnageofdebrisgeneration.Forestimationoftheimpacts fromthefiresthatfollowanearthquake,HAZUSmethodologyutilizesMonteCarlosimulation techniquestoassessthepotentialimpactsandseparatedthemoduleinto3majorelements: fire ignition, spread, and suppression. Number of fire ignition is estimated from the size and typeofbuildinginventoryandthegroundmotiontowhichitissubjected.Spreadisafunction ofthedensity oftheconstruction,the presenceof wind,fire breaks(e.g.lakes,wide streets) and low fuel areas (e.g. parks, cemeteries). Suppression is a function of the available fire fightingcapabilities.Thespreadandsuppressionmodulesusedamageandlossfunctionoutof the essential facilities and lifelines modules to determine the response capabilities and effectiveness of the firefighting personnel. For debris, HAZUS methodology estimates 2 differenttypesofdebris.Thefirsttypeisdebristhatfallinlargepieceslikesteelmembersor reinforced concrete elements, which require special treatment to break into smaller pieces beforetheyarehauledaway.Thesecondoneissmallerandmoreeasilymovedwithbulldozers, suchasbrick,wood,glass,buildingcontents,etc.
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Risk Assessment 5. DirectEconomic/SocialLosses Bothdirectandinduceddamagecanleadtodirectlosses.Thereare2typesoflossesevaluated inthemethodology:economicandsociallosses.Theeconomiclossesquantifythecostofrepair andreplacementofstructuresandlifelinesystemsthataredamagedasaconsequenceofthe earthquake.Structuralandnonstructuraldamageandalsolossestocontentsinsidebuildings are included. To compute the direct economic losses, damage information from the direct damage module is combined with economic data of the study area, particularly construction/replacementcostofbuildingsandlifelinesystems.Sociallossesarequantifiedin termsofcasualties.Toquantifythecasualties,HAZUSmethodologycombinestheoutputfrom direct damage module with building inventory and population data. Estimation is carried out fortwotimesofday:2:00PM(daytime)and2:00AM(nighttime). 6. IndirectEconomicLosses This module assesses the broad and longterm implications of the direct impacts (direct damageandlosses)mentionedbefore.Examplesofindirecteconomicimpactsarechangesin employmentandpersonalincome.Thismoduleisnotincludedinthisworkduetoinexistence ofcompletedataofincomeandemployment.
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Risk Assessment
2. GeneralDescriptionoftheStudyArea
Inthisproject,thelossestimationanalysisiscarriedoutbytheHAZUSsoftware.HAZUSisa regional earthquake loss estimation model that was developed by the United States Federal EmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA)andtheNationalInstituteofBuildingSciences(NIBS). The primary purpose of HAZUS is to provide a methodology and software application to estimateearthquakelossesatacitycorporationareascale.Theselossestimateswillbeused primarily by local and central officials to plan and stimulate efforts to reduce risks from earthquakes and to prepare for emergency response and recovery. The earthquake loss estimatesprovidedinthisreportwasbasedon552,285and82clustersofDhaka,Chittagong, andSylhetCityCorporationAreas,respectively. 2.1. DhakaCityCorporationArea The geographical size of the area is 136.4 square kilometers and contains 91 wards and 552 clusters.Ithasatotalpopulationof7,279,668people(estimatedbyusingthetotalnumberof occupantsinthenighttime).Thereareanestimated326,000buildingsintheareawithatotal building replacement value (excluding contents) of 16,740 millions of dollars. Approximately 81%ofthebuildings(and69%ofthebuildingvalue)isassociatedwithresidentialhousing.The replacementvalueofthetransportationandutilitylifelinesystemsisestimatedtobe1,586and 388millionsofdollars,respectively. 2.2. ChittagongCityCorporationArea Chittagong City Corporation Area is 169.4 square kilometers and contains 41 wards and 285 clusters.Ithasatotalpopulationof2,332,599peopleinthearea(estimatedbyusingthetotal number of occupants in the nighttime) as well as includes an estimated 182,000 with a total building replacement value (excluding contents) of 3,378 millions of dollars. Approximately 82%ofthebuildings(and69%ofthebuildingvalue)isassociatedwithresidentialhousing.The replacementvalueofthetransportationandutilitylifelinesystemsisestimatedtobe839and 147millionsofdollars,respectively. 2.3. SylhetCityCorporationArea ThesizeofSylhetCityCorporationAreais57.6squarekilometersandcontains27wardsand82 clusters.Atotalpopulationoftheareais401,773people(estimatedbyusingthetotalnumber ofoccupantsinthenighttime).Thereareanestimated52,000buildingsintheareawithatotal buildingreplacementvalue(excludingcontents)of926millionsofdollars.Approximately85% of the buildings (and 78% of the building value) is associated with residential housing. The replacementvalueofthetransportationandutilitylifelinesystemsisestimatedtobe191and 41millionsofdollars,respectively.
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Risk Assessment
Figure 2-1 The distribution of buildings in 3 cities
2-2
Risk Assessment
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Risk Assessment
Figure 2-2 Transportation systems in Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet City Corporation Areas
Figure 2-3 Utility systems in Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet City Corporation Areas
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Risk Assessment
3.BuildingandLifelineInventory
Thissectionpresentstheinventoryofbuildingsandlifelinesin Dhaka,Chittagongand Sylhet. Thedetailsoftheinventoryareorganizedintothreeparts:1)buildinginventory; 2)essential facilityinventory;and3)lifelineinventory.
3.1.BuildingInventory
Itisestimatedthatthereare326,000,182,000,and52,000buildingsinDhaka,Chittagong,and SylhetCityCorporationAreas,respectively,whichhaveanaggregatetotalreplacementvalueof 16,740millionsofdollarsforDhaka,3,378millionsofdollarsforChittagong,and926millionsof dollarsforSylhet.ThetotalpopulationofDhaka,ChittagongandSylhetareapproximately7.2, 2.3and0.4millions,respectively.AppendixAprovidesaregionalpopulationandbuildingvalue databyward. IntermsofbuildingconstructiontypesfoundinDhaka,ChittagongandSylhet,concreteframe and masonry building construction make up more than 80% of the building inventory. The remaining percentage is distributed between other general building types. Appendix B demonstratesthecorrelationmatricesofstructuraltypesandbuildingoccupancyclasseswhich areusedintheregions.
3.2.EssentialFacilityInventory
Essential facilities include hospitals, medical clinics, schools, fire stations, police stations and emergencyoperationscenters.InDhakaCityCorporationarea,thereare600hospitals,2,737 schools, 10 fire stations, 62 police stations and 1 emergency operation center (MoFDM building) and 17 emergency response agency offices. While in Chittagong, there are 162 hospitals,1,033schools,12firestations,11policestationsand1emergencyoperationcenter and10emergencyresponseagencyoffices.InSylhet,thereare87hospitals,211schools,2fire stations, 6 police stations and 9 emergency response agency offices. Figure 31 depicts the locationsoftheessentialfacilitiesinthe3cities.
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Risk Assessment
Figure 3-4 Locations of essential facilities in Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet City Corporation Areas
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Risk Assessment
3.3.LifelineInventory
3.3.1. TransportationandUtilityInventory Within HAZUS, the lifeline inventory is divided between transportation systems and utility systems.Inthestudyareaof3cities,therearefourtransportationsystemsthatincludehighways, railways, bus, and ferry. There are five utility systems: potable water, wastewater, natural gas, electricpowerandcommunications.ThelifelineinventorydataareprovidedintheTables31to 36. In Dhaka City Corporation area, the total value of the lifeline inventory is over 1,974 millions of dollars.Thisincludesover1,250kilometersofhighways,10highwaybridges,and2,582kilometers ofpotablewater,wastewater,andgaspipes.
Table 3-1 Transportation System Inventory of Dhaka City Corporation Area
System Highway Component Bridges Segments Subtotal Railways Facilities Segments Subtotal Bus Ferry Facilities Subtotal Facilities Subtotal Total 8 25 19 217 # locations/ # Segments 10 21,979 Replacement value (millions of dollars) 26.50 1,479.40 1,505.90 9.20 66.50 75.70 3.70 3.70 0.80 0.80 1,586.10
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Risk Assessment
Table 3-2 Utility System Inventory of Dhaka City Corporation Area

System Potable Water Component Facilities Pipelines Subtotal Waste Water Facilities Pipelines Subtotal Natural Gas Facilities Pipelines Subtotal Electrical Power Communication Facilities Subtotal Facilities Subtotal Total 30 54,815 7 10,943 14 4,082 # locations/ # Segments 748 18,699 Replacement value (millions of dollars) 140.20 13.10 153.30 60.60 2.90 63.50 7.00 7.70 14.70 75.80 75.80 81.00 81.00 388.20
InChittagongCityCorporationarea,thetotalvalueofthelifelineinventoryisover987millionsof dollars. This inventory includes over 618 kilometers of highways, 4 highway bridges, and 792 kilometersofpotablewaterandgaspipes.
Table 3-3 Transportation System Inventory of Chittagong City Corporation Area
System Highway Component Bridges Segments Subtotal Railways Facilities Segments Subtotal Bus Facilities Subtotal Total 11 15 211 # locations/ # Segments 4 8,416 Replacement value (millions of dollars) 6.60 725.70 732.20 7.40 98.20 105.60 1.60 1.60 839.30
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Risk Assessment
Table 3-4 Utility System Inventory of Chittagong City Corporation Area

System Potable Water Component Facilities Pipelines Subtotal Natural Gas Facilities Pipelines Subtotal Electrical Power Communication Facilities Subtotal Facilities Subtotal Total 5 28,407 22 517 # locations/ # Segments 72 5,169 Replacement value (millions of dollars) 69.60 3.60 73.20 22.00 0.40 22.40 33.40 33.40 19.00 19.00 148.00
AndinSylhetCityCorporationarea,thetotalvalueofthelifelineinventoryisover232millionsof dollars. It includes over 140 kilometers of highways, 2 highway bridges, and 268 kilometers of potablewaterandgaspipes.
Table 3-5 Transportation System Inventory of Sylhet City Corporation Area
System Highway Component Bridges Segments Subtotal Railways Facilities Segments Subtotal Bus Facilities Subtotal Total 2 7 29 # locations/ # Segments 2 4,204 Replacement value (millions of dollars) 2.60 178.40 180.90 3.40 7.00 10.40 0.20 0.20 191.50
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Risk Assessment
Table 3-6 Utility System Inventory of Sylhet City Corporation Area

System Potable Water Component Facilities Pipelines Subtotal Natural Gas Facilities Pipelines Subtotal Electrical Power Communication Facilities Subtotal Facilities Subtotal Total 7 9,057 1 607 # locations/ # Segments 18 784 Replacement value (millions of dollars) 2.40 0.50 2.90 1.00 0.40 1.40 14.30 14.30 23.00 23.00 41.60
In this project, the spatial (GIS) data inventory is transformed from local coordinate system of BangladeshTransverseMercator(BTM)toGeographicCoordinateSystem(GCS)inWesternUSin ordertodevelopaHAZUSdatasetandtorunthedamageandlosscalculation.Thistransformation impactstothelengthofnetwork(segment)componentsthatincludehighwayroad,railwaytrack, potablewater,wastewaterandgaspipeline.Thedistortionisrelativelysmall,variesfrom0.6%to 5.7%aspresentedinthefollowingtable.
Table 3-7 Distortion of Segment Length due to Coordinate System Transformation
City Corporation Component (Segment)
Highway Road Railway Track Total Length (km) in Bangladesh Transverse Mercator Coordinate System 1,270.105 62.133 1,137.042 399.548 847.431 639.586 95.600 552.049 220.376 148.797 6.696 130.944 143.869 Total Length (km) in Western US Geographic Coordinate System 1,232.595 63.630 1,119.405 395.640 833.595 618.870 92.925 540.750 212.730 141.752 6.656 125.216 135.616
Percent Distortion
3.0 2.4 1.6 1.0 1.6 3.2 2.8 2.0 3.5 4.7 0.6 4.4 5.7
Dhaka
Potable Water Pipeline Waste Water Pipeline Natural Gas Pipeline Highway Road Railway Track Potable Water Pipeline Natural Gas Pipeline Highway Road Railway Track Potable Water Pipeline Natural Gas Pipeline
Chittagong
Sylhet
3-6
Risk Assessment 3.3.2. RestorationTime Restoration time is required time for the lifeline system to recover and be partially and fully functionalaftertheearthquake.InHazusanalysis,itisusedtoassessthelifelinefunctionalityafter the earthquake. Hazus derives it from different postearthquake recovery experiences in the UnitedStates.Here,theformulationofrestorationtimeoflifelinecomponentsisbasedonlifeline survey and interview with the officials and engineers of the water supply authority, power development board, and gas distribution company in the 3 cities. The restoration time is then compared to the United States experience in restoring the lifeline as mentioned in the Hazus TechnicalDraft.Fromthiscomparation,itisfoundthatthepostearthquakerestorationtimefor lifelineinBangladeshisabout45timeslongerthaninwhatmentionedinHazus.Crosschecking thiscalculationresultswithlocalexperts,itisconcludedthatoveralllifelinerestorationtimefor BangladeshisaboutfourtimeslongerthantheHazusrestorationtime.Thisrestorationfactoris usedastheinputparameterforfunctionalityanalysisinHazus.Thefollowingsarecalculationof restorationtime. 1. NaturalGasPipeline UnitedStates(Hazus): For8and12pipediameter,ittakes1dayforapersoncrewtofix1pipeleak,and2daysfor apersoncrewtofix1pipebreak(HazusTechnicalDraftChapter8,Table8.1.c). Bangladesh(JalalabadGas): Oneleakrepairneeds45hr(1day)of2apersoncrew+approx.1dayofmaterialsupply. Pipebreakreplacementof100ftneeds1dayof5apersoncrew+approx.1dayofmaterial supply.Assumedthereisabreakin100ft(30m). It takes 2 days for 2 crew person to fix a pipe leak or 4 days for 1 crew person, or 4 times longerthaninUS.Andforpipebreak,ittakes2daysof5personcrewtofixabreakor1dayof 10personcrew,or5timeslongerthaninUS. 2. PotableWaterPipeline UnitedStates(Hazus): Forsmallpipes(<20diameter),a4personcrewneeds4hourstofixaleak,whilethesame4 personcrewneeds8hourstofixabreak(HazusTechnicalDraft,Chapter8,Table8.1.c). Bangladesh: Withthesame4personcrew,tofixapipeleakat12and10pipesrequires24hours(6times longer)andat6and8pipesrequires8hours(2timeslonger). Averagerestorationtimeforthesepipesis16hoursor4timeslongerthaninUS.Stillwiththe same4personcrew,tofixapipebreakat12piperequires36hoursandat10and8pipes require24hours,andat4and6pipesrequires12hours.Averagerestorationtimeforthese pipesis24hoursor4timeslongerthaninUS.
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Risk Assessment
Table 3-8 Restoration Time of Potable Water Pipeline in Bangladesh
Damage Description Pipe Leak Pipe Diameter 12 10 8 6 Pipe Break 12 10 8 6 4
Source: Sylhet City Corporation
Expected time to completely repair for 4 person crew 24 24 8 8 36 24 24 12 12 hours hours hours hours hours hours hours hours hours
3. ElectricPole(ElectricDistributionCircuit,EDC) UnitedStates(Hazus): Inacompletedamagesituationofthewholecity,where80%ofEDCsaredamaged,ittakes30 daystorestoretheEDCsback(HazusTechnicalDraft,Chapter8,Section8.5.6&Table8.22.b). Bangladesh(PowerDevelopmentBoard): It takes 1 day of 7 person crew to repair 1 electric pole (EDC). Within SCC, there are 9057 electricpoles(EDC).ThetotalmanpowerinSylhet(in3division)is3x120skilledlaborand3x13 engineers=399person. In a complete damage condition there will be 80% x 9057 = 7246 damage EDCs. To restore them it requires 7246 x 7 = 50722 manpower. With existing manpower in Sylhet, it can be finishedwithin50722/399=127days,or4.23timeslongerthaninUS. 3.3.3. ReplacementValue Replacement value relates to the repair and replacement of damaged lifeline components after the earthquake. In Hazus analysis, it used for estimating the direct economic loss due to the damage of lifeline components. Hazus derives it from different postearthquake recovery experiencesintheUnitedStates.Here,thereplacementvalueisestimatedfromthepercentageof repair and replacement values of the lifeline components in Bangladesh compared to Hazus values. Typical replacement value of lifeline components in Bangladesh can be classified as follows: 16% of Hazus values for simple component using local product and man power related works.Itcomesfromthecalculationofreplacementvalueonwell(potablewatersystem) andelectricpole(electricpowersystem). 20%ofHazusvalues,wherethepossiblefacilitydamagemostlycomesfromthestructure damage. It follows the percentage in building construction cost, where local cost is approximately20%ofHazus(US)cost. 70%ofHazusvaluesforthenetworkcomponentssuchasgaspipeline,potableandwaste waterpipeline.Itcomesfromthecalculationofleakandbreakrepairvalueongaspipeline. 100%ofHazusvalueswherethecomponentsvaluemostlycomesfromtheequipmentcost (which normallyisvery expensive)suchaselectricsubstation.Itimpliesthateverywhere thereplacementvaluewillberelativelythesamesincethelifelinefacilitiesorcomponents usesimilartypeofequipment. 3-8
Risk Assessment Bangladeshreplacementvalueswerecalculatedfromacquireddatafromwatersupplyauthority, powerdevelopmentboard,andgasdistributioncompany.Followingarethecalculation. 1. NaturalGasSystem GasPipelinebreakreplacementvalueperbreak(JalalabadGas) Pipe12(6mmodul) BDT36,000 Laying(approx.10m) BDT3,000 BDT894 Welding(joint) RoadBreak(asphalt,10m) BDT790 RCCCoating(10m) BDT4,940 ServiceT,ValveT,FlangeTjoint BDT477 PlugSocketJoint BDT45 Clamping BDT2,000 TotalCost BDT48,146= USD687.8 Hazusreplacementvalue:USD1000(HazusTechnicalDraft,Chapter15,Table15.17) Percentage=687.8/1000=68.8%=70% 2. ElectricPowerSystem Erectionofeveryunitofelectricpole(EDC)15mheight(PowerDevelopmentBoard) Electricpole15merection BDT30,000 ManPower BDT3,000 TotalCost BDT33,000= USD471.4 Hazusreplacementvalue:USD3000(HazusTechnicalDraft,Chapter15,Table15.17) Percentage=471.4/3000=15.7%=16% 3. PotableWaterSystem Constructionofdeeptubewellperunit (Sylhetwatersupplyauthority) Constructionofdeeptubewell BDT400,000 ManPower BDT40,000 TotalCost BDT440,000= USD62,857.1 Hazusreplacementvalue:USD400,000(HazusTechnicalDraft,Chapter15,Table15.17) Percentage=62,857.1/400,000=15.7%=16% Replacementvalueofeverylifelinecomponentsisexplainedinthefollowingtable.
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Risk Assessment
Table 3-9 Replacement Value of Lifeline Components
System Highway Transportation Component Major Roads - 4 lanes (cost/km length) Urban Roads 2 lanes (cost/km length) Highway Bridges Railway Transportation Rail Track (cost/km length) Urban Station Fuel Facility Maintenance Facility Dispatch Facility Bus Transportation Urban Station Fuel Facility Maintenance Facility Dispatch Facility Ferry Transportation Passenger Terminal Fuel Facility Maintenance Facility Dispatch Facility Potable Water Brittle Pipe Ductile Pipe Small WTP Well Overhead Tank Small Pumping Plant Waste Water Brittle Pipe Small WWTP Small Lift Station Natural Gas Arc Welded Steel Pipe (cost/break) Compressor Station (DRS) Electric Power Low Voltage Substation (distribution transformer Distribution Circuit (electric pole) Communication Central Office (Exchange) Radio Station/Transmitter TV Station/Transmitter HAZUS Label HRD1 HRD2 HWB RTR1 RST RFF RMF RDF BPT BFF BMF BDF FPT FFF FMF FDF PWP1 PWP2 PWT PWE PSTAS PPP WWP1 WWT WLS NGP2 NGC ESS EDC CCO CBR CBT BD Value (thous. USD) 2,000.00 1,000.00 See bridge table 1,050.00 400.00 600.00 560.00 600.00 200.00 30.00 260.00 80.00 200.00 80.00 104.00 40.00 0.70 0.70 30,000.00 62.86 160.00 150.00 0.70 60,000.00 48.00 0.69 1,000.00 10,000.00 0.47 5,000.00 2,000.00 2,000.00 HAZUS Value (thous. USD) 10,000.00 5,000.00 1,500.00 2,000.00 3,000.00 2,800.00 3,000.00 1,000.00 150.00 1,300.00 400.00 1,000.00 400.00 520.00 200.00 1.00 1.00 30,000.00 400.00 800.00 150.00 1.00 60,000.00 300.00 1.00 1,000.00 10,000.00 3.00 5,000.00 2,000.00 2,000.00 Percentage 20.00 20.00 70.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 70.00 70.00 100.00 15.71 20.00 100.00 70.00 100.00 16.00 68.78 100.00 100.00 15.71 100.00 100.00 100.00
For the highway bridge, the replacement value is defined from expert interview on bridge constructioncostduetolimitedaccesstoobtainthisdata.Thecostisestimatedfromthesurface areaofthebridge.Referringtothebridgesurveyinthe3cities,typicalconstructioncostcanbe classifiedfromthreegeneralstructuretypeasdescribedinthefollowingtable.
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Risk Assessment
Table 3-10 Typical Bridge Construction Cost Based on Structure Type and Surface Area
Type 1 2 3 Structure Slab - normal Girder and slab Box girder prestressed Typical Construction Cost (BDT/sqm surface area) 12,000 20,000 30,000 28,000 Typical Construction Cost (USD/sqm surface area) 170 285 428 400
Fromthistypicalcost,replacementvalueofeverybridgeinthestudyareaswerecalculatedfrom the bridge surface area with reference to its structure type and typical cost. The bridge replacementvaluein3citiesisshowninthefollowingtable.
Table 3-11 Bridge Replacement Value in Dhaka, Chittagong, and Sylhet
Bridge Dhaka Amin Bazar Burigangga 1 Burigangga 2 Kamrangichar 1 Kamrangichar 2 Kamrangichar 3 Khilgaon Flyover Mohakhali Flyover Tongi 1 Tongi 2 Chittagong Shah Amanat Dewan Hut Kalurghat Karnaphuli Chittagong Port Sylhet Keenan Shahjalal 2 2 400 400 2280 4100 912,000 1,640,000 912 1,640 2 2 2 1 428 350 285 170 6883 8000 2487 594 2,945,924 2,800,000 708,795 100,980 2,946 2,800 709 101 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 400 428 428 285 285 285 428 400 350 350 6082 7441 10105 357.5 165 550 22051 15930 713 624 2,432,800 3,184,748 4,324,940 101,888 47,025 156,750 9,437,828 6,372,000 249,550 218,400 2,433 3,185 4,325 102 47 157 9,438 6,372 250 219 Type Typical Cost (USD/m2) Area (m2) Replacement Value (USD) Rounded Value (thous. USD)
3-11
Risk Assessment
4.GeologicalDataandHazard
4.1.Soilclassification
Thesoilclassificationisusedtoevaluatethesiteamplificationratioinearthquakescenariostudy. ThesoilclassificationdatausedinthisstudywaspreparedbyOIC.Originally,thesoilclassification isdefinedinagridformat(leftcolumnoffigure41).ThesoilwasclassifiedbasedonNEHRPinto 5categories:A(hardrock),B(rock),C(verydensesoilandsoftrock),D(stiffsoil)andE(softsoil). Thesoftersoil,e.g.classE,hastendencytoamplifymoreearthquakesignal.Tousethisdatafor earthquake scenario study in HAZUS, we redefined the soil classification at the centroid of each clusterbyoverlaythemapcontainingclustersonthesoilclassificationmapfromOIC.Because, oneclustermaycovermorethanoneoriginalgriddata,wesetthecriteriasothattheprogram selects the soil classification from grid data that have the highest site amplification ratio (The softestsoilclassificationineachcluster)astherepresentativevalueofthecluster. The soil classification maps based on cluster for Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet City Corporation areasareshownintherightsideoffigure41.ThesoilclassificationfromOICwasinterpolated into552clustersinDhaka,285clustersinChittagongand82clustersinSylhet,respectively(Table 41). By comparing the maps in both columns, the soil classification by cluster is in good agreementwiththeoriginaldatainthegridformat.
Table 4-1 The number of clusters in each City Corporation
City Corporation
Dhaka Chittagong Sylhet
Number of clusters
552 285 82
OYO: Soil classification in grid format HAZUS: Soil classification in cluster format
Figure 4-1 Soil Class from OIC and Soil Class as compatible format for HAZUS
Dhaka
4-1
Risk Assessment
OYO: Soil classification in grid format HAZUS: Soil classification in cluster format
Legend
Sylhet
Chittagong
Figure 4-1 Soil Classification from OIC and Soil Class as compatible format for HAZUS (Contd)
4-2
Risk Assessment
4.2.GroundFailure
Twotypesofearthquakeinducedgroundfailureareconsideredintheearthquakescenariostudy: liquefactionandlandslide.Tocalculatetheprobabilityofdamageduetobothphenomena,itis required that we must first provide the HAZUS program with the liquefaction and landslide susceptibility map in thestudy area. The liquefaction and landslidesusceptibility maps in 3 city corporation areas were originally prepared by OIC in grid format. However, for landslide susceptibility map, the DEM data has been updated so we recalculated the slope data and construct the new landslide susceptibility map based on the original geological data. In the following sections, we explained the method for modifying the susceptibility maps from OIC so thatitcanbeusedinHAZUSprogram. 4.2.1.Liquefactionsusceptibility The original liquefaction susceptibility map from OIC was developed by adopting the method in the HAZUS technical manual which was originally proposed by Youd and Perkins (1978). In this method, the liquefaction susceptibility was classified into 6 categories: None, Very low, Low, Moderate,HighandVeryhigh,basedongeneraldepositionalenvironmentandgeologicageofthe depositasshowninTable42. To use this liquefaction susceptibility map in HAZUS program, the consulting team followed the same method as explained in section 4.1. The original liquefaction susceptibility map was first overlaidbytheclustermapfromeachcitycorporationarea.Then,wesetthecriteriaforprogram toselectthemostsusceptiblegriddatawithineachclusterboundaryastherepresentativevalue for that cluster. The liquefaction susceptibility maps based on clusterof Dhaka, Chittagongand SylhetCityCorporationAreasareshownintherightcolumnoffigure42.Itcanbeseenthatthe liquefaction susceptibility by cluster is compatible with the original susceptibility in the grid format. 4-3
Risk Assessment
Table 4-2 Liquefaction Susceptibility of Sedimentary Deposits Youd and Perkins, 1978) (from
OYO: Liquefaction Susceptibility
Liquefaction Susceptibility defined in Cluster
Figure 4-2 Liquefaction susceptibility from OIC and Soil Class as compatible format for HAZUS
Dhaka
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Risk Assessment
OYO: Liquefaction Susceptibility Liquefaction Susceptibility defined in Cluster
Figure 4-2 Liquefaction susceptibility from OIC and Soil Class as compatible format for HAZUS (Contd)
Legend
Sylhet
Chittagong
4-5
Risk Assessment 4.2.2.Landslide susceptibility Lanslide susceptibility map is developed by combining the susceptibility from geomorphological unitwiththelandslideanalysis.ThedetailsofthesusceptibilitiesareshowninTable43to45.
Table 4-3 Geomorphological unit and Susceptibility in Dhaka

Table 4-4 Geomorphological unit and Susceptibility in Chittagong
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Risk Assessment
Table 4-5 Geomorphological unit and Susceptibility in Sylhet
Forthelandslideanalysisandevaluation,therearethreemainstepsbythefollowing: Step1:Preparationwork Inordertoexamineslopeangleintheareas,100metersspacingofspotheightiscollectedby ADPC.Figure43showsthespotheightdistributionineachcity.

Spot Height DEM from Spot Height
Dhaka
Figure 4-3 Spot Height data and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) in each City Corporation
4-7
Risk Assessment
Spot Height DEM from Spot Height
Chittagong
Sylhet
Legend
Figure 4-3 Spot Height data and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) in each City Corporation (Contd)
Step2:SlopeAnalysis Slopeidentifiesthemaximumrateofchangeinvaluefromeachcelltoitsneighbors.Anoutput sloperastercanbecalculatedasdegreeofslope.
4-8
Risk Assessment SpatialanalysisfunctioninArcGISisappliedforslopegeneration.Conceptually,theslopefunction fitsaplanetothezvaluesofa3x3cellneighborhoodaroundtheprocessingorcentercell.The directiontheplanefacesistheaspectfortheprocessingcell.Theslopeforthecelliscalculated fromthe3x3neighborhoodusingtheaveragemaximumtechnique.
dz dz Slope= + dx dy
2
dz dz Degreeslope= TAN 1 + x57.29578 dx dy

2
wherethedeltasarecalculatedusinga3x3rovingwindow. "a"through"i"representthez_valuesinthewindow: a b c Theslopeatpointecanbecalculatedfrom: d e f (dz/dx)=[(c+2f+i)(a+2d+g)]/(8*xcellsize) g h i (dz/dy)=[(g+2h+i)(a+2b+c)]/(8*ycellsize) TheresultofslopeindegreeandgeologicgroupineachcitycorporationshowinFigure44

Slope (degree) Geologic Group
Figure 4-4 Slope in degree and geologic group in each city corporation
4-9
Dhaka
Risk Assessment
Slope (degree) Geologic Group
Figure 4-4 Slope in degree and geologic group in each city corporation (Contd)
Step3:Evaluation InHAZUS,therelationshipbetweenslopeandcriticalaccelationproposedbyWilsonandKeefer (1985) is utilized in the methodology. This relationship is shown in Figure 45 Landslide susceptibilityismeasuredonascaleofItoX,withIbeingtheleastsusceptible.Thesitecondition isidentifiedusingthreegeologicgroupsandgroundwaterlevel.Thedescriptionforeachgeologic 4-10
Legend
Sylhet
Chittagong
Risk Assessment groupanditsassociatedsusceptibilityisgiveninTable46.Thegroundwaterconditionisdivided into either dry condition (groundwater below level of the sliding) or wet condition (Groundwater level at ground surface). The critical acceleration is then estimated for the respective geologic and groundwater conditions and the slope angle. To avoid calculating the occurrenceoflandslidingforveryloworzeroslopeanglesandcriticalaccelerations,lowerbounds forslopeanglesandcriticalaccelerationsareestablished.TheseboundsareshowninTable46 andFigure45showstheWilsonandKeeferrelationshipswithinthesebounds.

Table 4-6 Landslide Susceptibility of Geologic Groups
Figure 4-5 Critical Acceleration as a Function of Geologic Group and Slope Angle (Wilson and Keefer, 1985)
Regarding to Table 46, the landslide susceptibility is adopted into wet condition and dry condition. As pervious mentioned, HAZUS requires hazard map base on boundary therefore, 4-11
Risk Assessment landslidesusceptibilitiesisalsoadoptedbaseonclustersystemineachcitycorporation.Figure46 showsthelandslidesusceptibilitiesineachcitycorporation.

Landslide Susceptibilities (Wet Condition) Landslide Susceptibilities (Dry Condition)
Figure 4-6 Landslide Susceptibilities in each City Corporation
Landslide Susceptibilities (Wet Condition) Landslide Susceptibilities (Dry Condition)
Chittagong
Dhaka
4-12
Risk Assessment
Figure 4-6 Landslide Susceptibilities in each City Corporation (Contd)
Legend
Sylhet
4-13
Risk Assessment
5.EarthquakeScenarioParameters
Earthquake scenarios were selected based on seismic hazard assessment (SHA) study carried out by OYO International Corporation (OIC). In SHA report, OIC proposed five earthquake scenarios,whereeachscenariowassetasamaximumpossibleearthquakeoccurringwithina faultzone,andtherearefive majorfaultzones(Figure 51), i.e.Madhupur fault (MF),Dauki Fault(DF),PlateBoundaryFault1(PBF1),PlateBoundaryFault2(PBF2)andPlateBoundary Fault 3 (PBF3). In addition to five scenarios, a special earthquake scenario where a magnitude6earthquakeisoccurringbeneatheachcitywasalsorecommendedbyOIC.
Figure 5-5 Earthquake Fault Zones
Inthedeterministichazardstudy,threeearthquakescenarios(case13)wereselectedforeach city corporation. The first scenario is the scenario that produces the highest level ground motion in the city among the OICs five scenarios. The second scenario is the one that can represent the remaining four OICs scenarios, as they are much lower than the first scenario andtheyarenotsomuchdifferentfromeachother.Thethirdscenarioisthespecialscenario where a magnitude6 earthquake is occurring directly beneath the city. For the probabilistic hazard study, one or two more earthquake scenarios (case 45) were additional produced by determining a probabilistic seismic motion at ground surface (Table 14, Probabilistic seismic motionreport,OIC).
5-1
Risk Assessment The input parameters of these selected earthquake scenarios (case) are shown in Tables 51, 52and53forDhaka,ChittagongandSylhetCityCorporationAreas,respectively.
Table 5-1 Earthquake Scenario Parameters for Dhaka City Corporation Area
Coordinate of Epicenter Depth to Top of fault (km) 10 3 8 3 Dip Angle 45 20 90 20 Fault type Reverse Reverse Reverse Reverse
Case 1 2 3 4
Mw 7.5 8.0 6.0 8.5
Description Madhupur Fault Plate Boundary Fault -2 Mw6.0 beneath city Plate Boundary Fault -2
Latitude
24.3 23.8 23.8 23.8
Longitude
90.1 91.1 90.4 90.5
Table 5-2 Earthquake Scenario Parameters for Chittagong City Corporation Area
Case Coordinate of Epicenter Latitude Longitude 21.1 92.1 Mw Depth to Top of fault (km) 17.5 Dip Angle 30 Fault type Reverse Description Plate Boundary Fault -1 Plate Boundary Fault -2 Mw6.0 beneath city Mw6.0 beneath city
8.5
2 3 4
23.8 22.4 22.4
91.1 91.8 91.8
8.0 6.0 6.0
3 6 22
20 90 45
Reverse Reverse Reverse
Table 5-3 Earthquake Scenario Parameters for Sylhet City Corporation Area
Coordinate of Epicenter Latitude 1 2 3 4 5 25.1 25.7 24.9 25.03 24.91 Longitude 91.2 93.7 91.87 91.2 91.2 8.0 8.3 6.0 8.0 8.5 Depth to Top of fault (km) 3 3 7 3 3 Dip Angle 60 30 90 60 60 Fault type Reverse Reverse Reverse Reverse Reverse
Case
Mw
Description Dauki Fault Plate Boundary Fault -3 Mw6.0 beneath city Dauki Fault Dauki Fault
5-2
Risk Assessment HAZUSprovidesthreemethodsforselectingearthquakescenario:DeterministicCalculationof Scenario Earthquake Ground Shaking, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps, and UserSupplied SeismicHazardMaps.Inthelattertwomethods,usermustprovidetheirownPGAorSpectral accelerationcontourmap.Thisprocessiscumbersomeasthecapabilitytodevelopthemapsis limitedtoonlyfewexperts.Alsotheseismicriskassessmentdevelopedinthisprojectwillbe continually updated in the future by local experts. Therefore the first method which is relativelysimplerwaschosen.Inthismethod,usercansimplychoosetheearthquakeevents thatmatchwiththeirowninterestbyprovidingtheparametersasshowninTables51,52and 53.Theseearthquakeeventscanbethosefromcatalogorcanbeanyarbitraryeventthatis possibletooccurinthefuture.Theconsultingteamhasinputtheparametersforearthquake scenarios in Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet City Corporation and obtained the distribution of groundparametersasshowninFigures52to510.
OYO: Peak Ground Acceleration (gal) HAZUS: Peak Ground Acceleration (gal)
Case 1: Mw = 7.5 Madhupur Fault (MF)
Case 2: Mw = 8.0 Plate Boundary Fault-2 (PBF-2)
Figure 5-6 PGA in Dhaka (OIC results) compared with HAZUS calculations
5-3
Risk Assessment
OYO: Peak Ground Acceleration (gal)
HAZUS: Peak Ground Acceleration (gal)
Case 3: Mw = 6.0 Underneath City
Case 4: 2% PE in 50 Years
Figure 5-2 PGA in Dhaka (OIC results) compared with HAZUS calculations (Contd)
5-4
Risk Assessment
OYO: Spectral Acceleration (gal) at T=0.3 s
HAZUS: Spectral Acceleration (gal) at T=0.3 s
Figure 5-7 Sa (T= 0.3 sec) in Dhaka compared with HAZUS calculations
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Risk Assessment
Figure 5-3 Sa (T= 0.3 sec) in Dhaka compared with HAZUS calculations (Contd)
Figure 5-4 Sa (T= 1.0 sec) in Dhaka compared with HAZUS calculations
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Risk Assessment
Figure 5-4 Sa (T= 1.0 sec) in Dhaka compared with HAZUS calculations (Contd)
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Risk Assessment
Figure 5-5 PGA in Chittagong (OIC results) compared with HAZUS calculations
5-8
Risk Assessment
Figure 5-5 PGA in Chittagong (OIC results) compared with HAZUS calculations (Contd)
5-9
Risk Assessment
Case 2: Mw = 8.0 Plate Boundary Fault-2 (PBF2)
Figure 5-6 Sa (T= 0.3 sec) in Chittagong compared with HAZUS calculations
5-10
Risk Assessment
Figure 5-6 Sa (T= 0.3 sec) in Chittagong compared with HAZUS calculations (Contd)
Figure 5-7 Sa (T= 1.0 sec) in Chittagong compared with HAZUS calculations
5-11
Risk Assessment
Figure 5-7 Sa (T= 1.0 sec) in Chittagong compared with HAZUS calculations (Contd)
5-12
Risk Assessment
Case 1: Mw = 8.0 Dauki Fault (DF)
Figure 5-8 PGA in Sylhet (OIC results) compared with HAZUS calculations
5-13
Risk Assessment
Figure 5-8 PGA in Sylhet (OIC results) compared with HAZUS calculations (Contd)
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Risk Assessment
Figure 5-9 Sa (T= 0.3 sec) in Sylhet compared with HAZUS calculations
5-15
Risk Assessment
Figure 5-9 Sa (T= 0.3 sec) in Sylhet compared with HAZUS calculations (Contd)
5-16
Risk Assessment
Figure 5-10 Sa (T= 1.0 sec) in Sylhet compared with HAZUS calculations
5-17
Risk Assessment
Figure 5-10 Sa (T= 1.0 sec) in Sylhet compared with HAZUS calculations (Contd)
5-18
Risk Assessment
6.HAZUSCalculationsandAnalysis Results
In this Chapter, the calculation and analysis results obtained from the HAZUS model of the 3 citiesarepresented.Theyaredescribedindetailinthefollowing.
6.1. DirectEarthquakeDamage
6.1.1. BuildingsDamage DhakaCityCorporationArea BuildingsDamageinDhakaCityCorporationArea:Scenariocase1 HAZUSestimatesthatabout158,634buildingswillbeatleastmoderatelydamaged.Thisisover 49.00%ofthetotalnumberofbuildingsintheregion.Thereareanestimated72,316buildings thatwillbedamagedbeyondrepair.
Table 6-1 Expected Building Damage by Occupancy Class in Dhaka City Corporation Area: Scenario Case 1
Dhaka : Case 1 None Count Agriculture Commercial Education Government Industrial Non-SFD Residential Religion Single Family Dwelling(SFD) Residential Total 124,939 43,232 53,166 33,153 72,316 2,118 1.70 739 1.71 1,248 2.35 817 2.46 1,495 2.07 407 0.33 307 0.71 567 1.07 372 1.12 526 0.73 261 8,199 476 122 1,245 112,110 (%) 0.21 6.56 0.38 0.10 1.00 89.73 Slight Count 291 5,232 343 100 748 35,473 (%) 0.67 12.10 0.79 0.23 1.73 82.05 Moderate Count 485 11,973 844 269 1,538 36,242 (%) 0.91 22.52 1.59 0.51 2.89 68.17 Extensive Count 264 8,841 629 202 1,137 20,891 (%) 0.80 26.67 1.90 0.61 3.43 63.01 Complete Count 343 12,500 870 230 1,708 54,644 (%) 0.47 17.29 1.20 0.32 2.36 75.56
Table 6-2 Expected Building Damage by Building Type in Dhaka City Corporation Area: Scenario Case 1
Dhaka : Case 1 None Count Steel Concrete Masonry Thin Shed and Bamboo Total 8 101,832 6,353 16,745 124,939 (%) 0.01 81.51 5.09 13.40 Slight Count 14 17,066 10,784 15368 43,232 (%) 0.03 39.47 24.94 35.55 Moderate Count 125 15,152 26,558 11,331 53,166 (%) 0.24 28.50 49.95 21.31 Extensive Count 324 12,866 17,328 2,635 33,153 (%) 0.98 38.81 52.26 7.95 Complete Count 948 38,648 21,611 11,108 72,316 (%) 1.31 53.44 29.89 15.36
6-1
Risk Assessment BuildingsDamageinDhakaCityCorporationArea:Scenariocase2 HAZUS estimates that about 93,414 buildings will be at least moderately damaged. This is over 29.00 %of thetotalnumberofbuildingsinthe region.Thereareanestimated45,609buildings thatwillbedamagedbeyondrepair.
Dhaka : Case 2 None Count Agriculture Commercial Education Government Industrial Non-SDF Residential Religion Single Family Dwelling(SDF) Residential Total 3,770 192,210 1.96 873 41,181 2.12 690 34,326 2.01 205 13,480 1.52 878 45,609 1.93 761 19,053 1,338 327 2,701 163,258 1,001 (%) 0.40 9.91 0.70 0.17 1.41 84.94 0.52 Slight Count 334 7,664 533 157 1,037 30,211 371 (%) 0.81 18.61 1.29 0.38 2.52 73.36 0.90 Moderate Count 283 9,512 633 227 1,234 21,390 357 (%) 0.82 27.71 1.84 0.66 3.59 62.32 1.04 Extensive Count 84 3,841 240 96 533 8,330 153 (%) 0.62 28.49 1.78 0.71 3.96 61.79 1.13 Complete Count 182 6,676 418 116 872 36,170 297 (%) 0.40 14.64 0.92 0.25 1.91 79.31 0.65
Dhaka : Case 2 None Count Steel Concrete Masonry Thin Shed and Bamboo Total 25 124,630 33,051 34,504 192,210 (%) 0.01 65 17 17.95 Slight Count 36 13,494 17,348 10303 41,181 (%) 0.09 33 42 25.02 Moderate Count 226 12,062 18,408 3,629 34,326 (%) 0.66 35 54 10.57 Extensive Count 460 8,406 4,238 375 13,480 (%) 3.42 62 31 2.78 Complete Count 673 26,972 9,588 8,377 45,609 (%) 1.47 59 21 18.37
6-2
Risk Assessment BuildingsDamageinDhakaCityCorporationArea:Scenariocase3 HAZUSestimatesthatabout182,521buildingswillbeatleastmoderatelydamaged.Thisisover 56.00 %of thetotalnumberofbuildingsinthe region.Thereareanestimated78,323buildings thatwillbedamagedbeyondrepair.

Dhaka : Case 3 None Count Agriculture Commercial Education Government Industrial Non-SFD Residential Religion Single Family Dwelling(SFD) Residential Total 98,333 45,951 65,644 78,323 78,323 1,708 1.74 786 1.71 1,382 2.11 862 2.24 1,680 2.15 151 6,935 405 106 1,021 87,706 302 (%) 0.15 7.05 0.41 0.11 1.04 89.19 0.31 Slight Count 252 5,818 393 123 842 37,433 304 (%) 0.55 12.66 0.86 0.27 1.83 81.46 0.66 Moderate Count 524 13,944 1,006 310 1,794 46,031 655 (%) 0.80 21.24 1.53 0.47 2.73 70.12 1.00 Extensive Count 311 8,753 607 183 1,138 26,302 398 (%) 0.81 22.70 1.58 0.48 2.95 68.22 1.03 Complete Count 407 11,297 751 200 1,582 61,888 519 (%) 0.52 14.42 0.96 0.25 2.02 79.02 0.66
Dhaka : Case 3 None Count Steel Concrete Masonry Thin Shed and Bamboo Total 61 85,020 4,932 8,320 98,333 (%) 0.06 86 5 8.46 Slight Count 70 21,328 10,685 13868 45,951 (%) 0.15 46 23 30.18 Moderate Count 304 21,260 28,873 15,207 65,644 (%) 0.46 32 44 23.17 Extensive Count 462 16,277 16,753 5,062 38,554 (%) 1.20 42 43 13.13 Complete Count 524 41,679 21,390 14,731 78,323 (%) 0.67 53 27 18.81
6-3
Risk Assessment BuildingsDamageinDhakaCityCorporationArea:Scenariocase4 HAZUSestimatesthatabout270,604buildingswillbeatleastmoderatelydamaged.Thisisover 83.00%ofthetotalnumberofbuildingsintheregion.Thereareanestimated238,164buildings thatwillbedamagedbeyondrepair.

Dhaka : Case 4 None Count Agriculture Commercial Education Government Industrial Non-SFD Residential Religion Single Family Dwelling(SFD) Residential Total 42,239 11,963 15,343 19,097 238,164 688 1.63 177 1.48 202 1.32 289 1.51 5,060 2.12 10 2,593 143 34 372 38,335 62 (%) 0.02 6.14 0.34 0.08 0.88 90.76 0.15 Slight Count 7 697 39 9 100 10,913 21 (%) 0.06 5.83 0.33 0.08 0.83 91.22 0.17 Moderate Count 44 1,037 81 20 160 13,738 60 (%) 0.29 6.76 0.53 0.13 1.04 89.54 0.39 Extensive Count 139 2,572 206 58 398 15,294 142 (%) 0.73 13.47 1.08 0.30 2.08 80.08 0.75 Complete Count 1,444 39,846 2,693 800 5,347 181,080 1,894 (%) 0.61 16.73 1.13 0.34 2.25 76.03 0.80
Dhaka : Case 4 None Count Steel Concrete Masonry Thin Shed and Bamboo Total 0 42,008 6 224 42,239 (%) 0.00 99 0 0.53 Slight Count 0 10,366 63 1534 11,963 (%) 0.00 87 1 12.82 Moderate Count 1 7,230 1,411 6,701 15,343 (%) 0.01 47 9 43.67 Extensive Count 3 4,160 5,536 9,398 19,097 (%) 0.01 22 29 49.21 Complete Count 1,416 121,800 75,616 39,332 238,164 (%) 0.59 51 32 16.51
6-4
Risk Assessment ChittagongCityCorporationArea BuildingsDamageinChittagongCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase1 HAZUSestimatesthatabout168,150buildingswillbeatleastmoderatelydamaged.Thisisover 92.00%ofthetotalnumberofbuildingsintheChittagongcity.Thereareanestimated142,856 buildingsthatwillbedamagedbeyondrepair.

Table 6-9 Expected Building Damage by Occupancy Class in Chittagong City Corporation: Scenario Case 1
Chittagong : Case 1 None Count Agriculture Commercial Education Government Industrial Non-SFD Residential Religion Single Family Dwelling (SFD) Residential Total 15 751 74 6 53 2,946 49 1,102 4,996 (%) 0.29 15.04 1.48 0.12 1.07 58.96 0.98 22.05 Slight Count 21 1,424 102 8 66 5,888 84 1,541 9,133 (%) 0.23 15.60 1.11 0.08 0.72 64.46 0.92 16.87 Moderate Count 30 2,018 114 11 83 8,906 102 1,882 13,146 (%) 0.23 15.35 0.87 0.09 0.63 67.75 0.78 14.32 Extensive Count 43 1,786 98 12 85 8,167 86 1,872 12,149 (%) 0.35 14.70 0.80 0.10 0.70 67.22 0.70 15.41 Complete Count 262 22,482 956 192 1,793 67,569 360 49,242 142,856 (%) 0.18 15.74 0.67 0.13 1.25 47.30 0.25 34.47
Table 6-10 Expected Building Damage by Building Type in Chittagong City Corporation: Scenario Case 1
Chittagong : Case 1 None Count Steel Concrete Masonry Thin Shed and Bamboo Total 0 4,885 0 111 4,996 (%) 0.00 98 0 2.21 Slight Count 0 8,389 2 742 9,133 (%) 0.00 92 0.03 8.13 Moderate Count 0 10,720 95 2,333 13,146 (%) 0.00 82 0.72 17.74 Extensive Count 0 9,045 669 2,434 13,146 (%) 0.00 74.46 5.5 20.04 Complete Count 145 82,590 48,323 11,798 142,856 (%) 0.10 57.81 33.82 8.26
6-5
Risk Assessment BuildingsDamageinChittagongCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase2 HAZUS estimates that about 56,512 buildings will be at least moderately damaged. This is over 31.00 % of the total number of buildings. There are an estimated 17,645 buildings that will be damaged.
Chittagong : Case 2 None Count Agriculture Commercial Education Government Industrial Non-SFD Residential Religion Single Family Dwelling (SFD) Residential Total 226 15,600 776 141 789 52,205 470 23,850 94,057 (%) 0.24 16.59 0.82 0.15 0.84 55.50 0.50 25.36 Slight Count 57 4,941 212 38 337 16,146 108 9,872 31,711 (%) 0.18 15.58 0.67 0.12 1.06 50.92 0.34 31.13 Moderate Count 38 3,916 156 24 402 11,808 54 10,530 26,929 (%) 0.14 14.54 0.58 0.09 1.49 43.85 0.20 39.10 Extensive Count 21 1,656 77 8 252 5,056 19 4,850 11,939 (%) 0.18 13.87 0.65 0.07 2.11 42.35 0.16 40.62 Complete Count 29 2,349 122 17 300 8,261 31 6,537 17,645 (%) 0.16 13.31 0.69 0.10 1.70 46.82 0.17 37.05
Chittagong : Case 2 None Count Steel Concrete Masonry Thin Shed and Bamboo Total 9 59,070 23,095 11,883 94,057 (%) 0.01 62.80 24.55 12.63 Slight Count 7 17,600 10,813 3291 31,711 (%) 0.02 55.50 34.10 10.38 Moderate Count 29 15,739 9,985 1,176 26,929 (%) 0.11 58.45 37.08 4.37 Extensive Count 45 9,568 2,201 125 11,939 (%) 0.38 80.14 18.43 1.04 Complete Count 55 13,652 2,995 943 17,645 (%) 0.31 77.37 16.97 5.34
6-6
Risk Assessment BuildingsDamageinChittagongCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase3 HAZUSestimatesthatabout128,104buildingswillbeatleastmoderatelydamaged.Thisisover 70.00 % of the total number of buildings. There are an estimated 55,338 buildings that will be damagedbeyondrepair.
Chittagong : Case 3 None Count Agriculture Commercial Education Government Industrial Non-SFD Residential Religion Single Family Dwelling (SFD) Residential Total 82 4,903 326 54 230 17,285 222 5,528 28,630 (%) 0.29 17.13 1.14 0.19 0.80 60.37 0.78 19.31 Slight Count 71 4,079 223 37 204 15,029 144 5,760 25,545 (%) 0.28 15.97 0.87 0.15 0.80 58.83 0.56 22.55 Moderate Count 82 6,046 254 46 390 20,206 128 12,937 40,089 (%) 0.20 15.08 0.63 0.12 0.97 50.40 0.32 32.27 Extensive Count 62 5,193 209 36 403 15,468 89 11,219 32,677 (%) 0.19 15.89 0.64 0.11 1.23 47.33 0.27 34.33 Complete Count 74 8,242 332 56 853 25,488 99 20,196 55,338 (%) 0.13 14.89 0.60 0.10 1.54 46.06 0.18 36.49
Chittagong : Case 3 None Count Steel Concrete Masonry Thin Shed and Bamboo Total 2 25,498 1,281 1,849 28,630 (%) 0.01 89.06 4.47 6.46 Slight Count 3 17,342 4,043 4157 25,545 (%) 0.01 67.89 15.83 16.27 Moderate Count 19 19,614 14,696 5,760 40,089 (%) 0.05 48.93 36.66 14.37 Extensive Count 41 17,759 12,478 2,399 32,677 (%) 0.12 54.35 38.19 7.34 Complete Count 80 35,416 16,590 3,252 55,338 (%) 0.14 64.00 29.98 5.88
6-7
Risk Assessment BuildingsDamageinChittagongCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase4 HAZUS estimates that about 97,608 buildings will be at least moderately damaged. This is over 54.00 % of the total number of buildings in the Chittagong city. There are an estimated 29,576 buildingsthatwillbedamagedbeyondrepair.
Chittagong : Case 4 None Count Agriculture Commercial Education Government Industrial Non-SFD Residential Religion Single Family Dwelling (SFD) Residential Total 142 8,191 480 81 466 28,678 (%) 0.29 16.60 0.97 0.16 0.94 58.12 Slight Count 77 5,470 263 45 367 18,817 (%) 0.22 15.48 0.74 0.13 1.04 53.26 Moderate Count 71 6,623 261 46 519 20,422 (%) 0.16 15.10 0.60 0.11 1.18 46.55 Extensive Count 41 3,815 153 25 328 11,284 (%) 0.17 15.79 0.63 0.10 1.36 46.70 Complete Count 40 4,363 186 32 400 14,274 (%) 0.14 14.75 0.63 0.11 1.35 48.26
300
0.61
145
0.41
110
0.25
60
0.25
67
0.22
11,005 49,344
22.30
10,146 35,328
28.72
15,813 43,867
36.05
8,460 24,165
35.01
10,215 29,577
34.54
Chittagong : Case 4 None Count Steel Concrete Masonry Thin Shed and Bamboo Total 15 38,109 6,022 5,199 49,344 (%) 0.03 77 12 10.54 Slight Count 12 21,465 8,798 5053 35,328 (%) 0.04 61 25 14.30 Moderate Count 40 22,223 17,413 4,191 43,867 (%) 0.09 51 40 9.55 Extensive Count 47 14,310 8,671 1,138 24,165 (%) 0.19 59 36 4.71 Complete Count 32 19,523 8,185 1,838 29,577 (%) 0.11 66 28 6.21
6-8
Risk Assessment SylhetCityCorporationArea BuildingsDamageinSylhetCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase1 HAZUS estimates that about 41,173 buildings will be at least moderately damaged. This is over 79.00 %of thetotalnumberofbuildingsinthe region.Thereareanestimated24,944buildings thatwillbedamagedbeyondrepair.
Table 6-17 Expected Building Damage by Occupancy Class in Sylhet City Corporation Area: Scenario Case 1
Sylhet : Case 1 None Count Agriculture Commercial Education Government Industrial Non-SFD Residential Religion Single Family Dwelling(SFD) Residential Total 6 982 107 27 44 2,013 103 3,146 6,429 (%) 0.09 15.28 1.67 0.42 0.68 31.32 1.61 48.94 Slight Count 5 624 63 16 33 1,294 60 2,409 4,504 (%) 0.12 13.84 1.40 0.35 0.73 28.73 1.34 53.48 Moderate Count 10 796 63 16 55 1,416 56 4,547 6,960 (%) 0.14 11.43 0.91 0.23 0.79 20.35 0.81 65.33 Extensive Count 12 964 73 20 77 1,454 50 6,620 9,269 (%) 0.13 10.40 0.79 0.22 0.83 15.68 0.53 71.42 Complete Count 44 2,717 250 89 239 4,247 96 17,264 24,945 (%) 0.17 10.89 1.00 0.36 0.96 17.03 0.38 69.21
Table 6-18 Expected Building Damage by Building Type in Sylhet City Corporation Area: Scenario Case 1
Sylhet : Case 1 None Count Steel Concrete Masonry Thin Shed and Bamboo Total 0 6,124 57 247 6,429 (%) 0.00 95.27 0.88 3.85 Slight Count 0 3,460 396 648 4,504 (%) 0.00 76.83 8.79 14.39 Moderate Count 0 2,861 3,081 1,018 6,960 (%) 0.00 41.10 44.26 14.63 Extensive Count 0 2,819 5,967 482 9,269 (%) 0.00 30.41 64.38 5.20 Complete Count 1 11,574 13,015 354 24,945 (%) 0.01 46.40 52.18 1.42
6-9
Risk Assessment BuildingsDamageinSylhetCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase2 HAZUS estimates that about 12,422 buildings will be at least moderately damaged. This is over 24.00%ofthetotalnumberofbuildingsintheregion.Thereareanestimated1,919buildingsthat willbedamagedbeyondrepair.
Sylhet : Case 2 None Count Agriculture Commercial Education Government Industrial Non-SFD Residential Religion Single Family Dwelling (SFD) Residential Total 43 3,583 303 85 216 6,153 250 18,260 28,893 (%) 0.15 12.40 1.05 0.29 0.75 21.30 0.87 63.20 Slight Count 15 1,136 104 35 95 1,945 58 7,404 10,791 (%) 0.14 10.52 0.96 0.33 0.88 18.02 0.54 68.61 Moderate Count 11 810 80 25 77 1,342 33 5,476 7,854 (%) 0.14 10.32 1.02 0.32 0.98 17.08 0.42 69.72 Extensive Count 3 282 38 12 33 523 12 1,747 2,649 (%) 0.11 10.63 1.43 0.44 1.25 19.73 0.45 65.96 Complete Count 6 271 32 12 26 462 12 1,099 1,919 (%) 0.29 14.13 1.69 0.60 1.34 24.05 0.63 57.26
Table6-20 Expected Building Damage by Building Type in Sylhet City Corporation Area: Scenario Case 2
Sylhet : Case 2 None Count Steel Concrete Masonry Thin Shed and Bamboo Total 0 14,786 12,129 1,977 28,893 (%) 0.00 51.18 41.98 6.84 Slight Count 0 5,201 5,056 533 10,791 (%) 0.00 48.20 46.86 4.94 Moderate Count 0 3,592 4,080 183 7,854 (%) 0.00 45.73 51.94 2.33 Extensive Count 0 1,772 857 20 2,649 (%) 0.02 66.88 32.35 0.75 Complete Count 1 1,488 393 37 1,919 (%) 0.03 77.51 20.51 1.95
6-10
Risk Assessment BuildingsDamageinSylhetCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase3 HAZUS estimates that about 36,693 buildings will be at least moderately damaged. This is over 70.00 %of thetotalnumberofbuildingsin the region.Thereareanestimated11,891buildings thatwillbedamagedbeyondrepair.
Sylhet : Case 3 None Count Agriculture Commercial Education Government Industrial Non-SFD Residential Religion Single Family Dwelling(SFD) Residential Total 8 1,086 115 29 52 2,196 106 4,063 7,656 (%) 0.10 14.18 1.51 0.38 0.68 28.69 1.39 53.07 Slight Count 9 934 88 24 61 1,757 71 4,812 7,756 (%) 0.12 12.04 1.14 0.31 0.79 22.66 0.92 62.03 Moderate Count 18 1,440 119 33 115 2,352 79 9,473 13,629 (%) 0.13 10.57 0.88 0.24 0.85 17.26 0.58 69.50 Extensive Count 14 1,140 100 31 98 1,821 55 7,914 11,174 (%) 0.13 10.20 0.89 0.28 0.88 16.30 0.50 70.83 Complete Count 28 1,482 134 51 120 2,297 53 7,724 11,891 (%) 0.23 12.47 1.13 0.43 1.01 19.32 0.45 64.96
Sylhet : Case 3 None Count Steel Concrete Masonry Thin Shed and Bamboo Total 0 6,384 918 354 7,656 (%) 0.00 83.39 11.99 4.62 Slight Count 0 4,505 2,502 749 7,756 (%) 0.00 58.08 32.26 9.66 Moderate Count 0 5,100 7,548 981 13,629 (%) 0.00 37.42 55.38 7.20 Extensive Count 0 4,479 6,310 384 11,174 (%) 0.00 40.09 56.47 3.44 Complete Count 1 6,370 5,237 283 11,891 (%) 0.01 53.57 44.04 2.38
6-11
Risk Assessment BuildingsDamageinSylhetCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase4 HAZUS estimates that about 45,216 buildings will be at least moderately damaged. This is over 87.00 %of thetotalnumberofbuildingsinthe region.Thereareanestimated33,858buildings thatwillbedamagedbeyondrepair.
Sylhet : Case 4 None Count Agriculture Commercial Education Government Industrial Non-SFD Residential Religion Single Family Dwelling(SFD) Residential Total 2 575 66 17 24 1,201 64 1,880 3,829 (%) 0.06 15.01 1.73 0.44 0.62 31.37 1.68 49.09 Slight Count 2 422 47 12 20 907 45 1,605 3,060 (%) 0.07 13.78 1.52 0.39 0.66 29.64 1.48 52.46 Moderate Count 4 538 48 12 34 1,038 45 3,000 4,721 (%) 0.09 11.40 1.01 0.26 0.72 21.99 0.96 63.56 Extensive Count 6 678 53 15 49 1,094 42 4,701 6,638 (%) 0.09 10.22 0.80 0.22 0.73 16.49 0.63 70.82 Complete Count 62 3,869 343 112 320 6,183 168 22,799 33,858 (%) 0.18 11.43 1.01 0.33 0.95 18.26 0.50 67.34
Sylhet : Case 4 None Count Steel Concrete Masonry Thin Shed and Bamboo Total 0 3,752 20 57 3,829 (%) 0.00 97.98 0.52 1.50 Slight Count 0 2,626 165 269 3,060 (%) 0.00 85.80 5.39 8.81 Moderate Count 0 2,370 1,641 710 4,721 (%) 0.00 50.21 34.75 15.04 Extensive Count 0 2,214 3,880 544 6,638 (%) 0.00 33.35 58.46 8.19 Complete Count 1 15,877 16,810 1,170 33,858 (%) 0.00 46.90 49.65 3.45
6-12
Risk Assessment BuildingsDamageinSylhetCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase5 HAZUS estimates that about 51,858 buildings will be at least moderately damaged. This is over 99.50 %of thetotalnumberofbuildingsinthe region.Thereareanestimated50,879buildings thatwillbedamagedbeyondrepair.
Sylhet : Case 5 None Count Agriculture Commercial Education Government Industrial Non-SFD Residential Religion Single Family Dwelling(SFD) Residential Total 0 12 1 0 1 46 2 47 109 (%) 0.00 11.17 0.96 0.14 0.53 42.24 1.53 43.44 Slight Count 0 15 1 0 1 57 2 62 138 (%) 0.00 11.18 0.96 0.15 0.52 40.91 1.49 44.78 Moderate Count 0 35 3 1 2 104 4 165 314 (%) 0.01 11.29 0.95 0.21 0.56 33.06 1.24 52.68 Extensive Count 0 67 4 1 4 139 5 445 664 (%) 0.02 10.06 0.58 0.13 0.58 20.88 0.71 67.04 Complete Count 77 5,952 548 166 440 10,079 353 33,266 50,880 (%) 0.15 11.70 1.08 0.33 0.86 19.81 0.69 65.38
Sylhet : Case 5 None Count Steel Concrete Masonry Thin Shed and Bamboo Total 0 109 0 0 109 (%) 0.00 99.86 0.00 0.14 Slight Count 0 134 2 2 138 (%) 0.00 96.44 1.76 1.80 Moderate Count 0 236 31 47 314 (%) 0.00 75.13 10.01 14.86 Extensive Count 0 221 263 180 664 (%) 0.00 33.20 39.65 27.15 Complete Count 1 26,139 22,218 2,521 50,880 (%) 0.01 51.37 43.67 4.95
6-13
Risk Assessment 6.1.2.EssentialFacilitiesDamage DhakaCityCorporationArea EssentialFacilitiesDamageinDhakaCityCorporationArea:Scenariocase1 Beforetheearthquake,theregionhad59,849hospitalbedsavailableforuse.Onthedayofthe earthquake, the model estimates that only 24,242 hospital beds (41%) are available for use by patientsalreadyinthehospitalandthoseinjuredbytheearthquake.Afteroneweek,54%ofthe bedswillbebackinservice.By30days,72%willbeoperational.
Table 6-27 Expected Damage to Essential Facilities in Dhaka City Corporation Area: Scenario case1
Dhaka : Case 1 Facilities Classification Hospitals Schools EOCs Police Stations Fire Stations Total 600 2,737 18 62 10 At Least Moderate Damage >50% 241 1,173 8 30 4 Complete Damage >50% 10 90 2 0 0 With Functionality >50% on day 1 224 895 7 15 3
EssentialFacilitiesDamageinDhakaCityCorporationArea:Scenariocase2 Beforetheearthquake,theregionhad59,849hospitalbedsavailableforuse.Onthedayofthe earthquake, the model estimates that only 37,625 hospital beds (63%) are available for use by patientsalreadyinthehospitalandthoseinjuredbytheearthquake.Afteroneweek,76%ofthe bedswillbebackinservice.By30days,87%willbeoperational.
Table 6-28 Expected Damage to Essential Facilities in Dhaka City Corporation Area: Scenario case 2
Dhaka : Case 2 # Facilities Classification Hospitals Schools EOCs Police Stations Fire Stations Total 600 2,737 18 62 10 At Least Moderate Damage >50% 22 99 7 1 0 Complete Damage >50% 0 2 0 0 0 With Functionality >50% on day 1 431 2,029 11 46 7
6-14
Risk Assessment EssentialFacilitiesDamageinDhakaCityCorporationArea:Scenariocase3 Beforetheearthquake,theregionhad59,849hospitalbedsavailableforuse.Onthedayofthe earthquake, the model estimates that only 18,561 hospital beds (31%) are available for use by patientsalreadyinthehospitalandthoseinjuredbytheearthquake.Afteroneweek,45%ofthe bedswillbebackinservice.By30days,66%willbeoperational.
Dhaka : Case 3 # Facilities Classification Hospitals Schools EOCs Police Stations Fire Stations Total 600 2,737 18 62 10 At Least Moderate Damage >50% 364 1,567 9 39 6 Complete Damage >50% 23 165 0 0 0 With Functionality >50% on day 1 128 495 4 2 0
EssentialFacilitiesDamageinDhakaCityCorporationArea:Scenariocase4 Beforetheearthquake,theregionhad59,849hospitalbedsavailableforuse.Onthedayofthe earthquake, the model estimates that only 7,441 hospital beds (12%) are available for use by patientsalreadyinthehospitalandthoseinjuredbytheearthquake.Afteroneweek,16%ofthe bedswillbebackinservice.By30days,20%willbeoperational.
Dhaka : Case 4 # Facilities Classification Hospitals Schools EOCs Police Stations Fire Stations Total 600 2,737 18 62 10 At Least Moderate Damage >50% 483 2,292 14 61 10 Complete Damage >50% 482 2,268 14 61 10 With Functionality >50% on day 1 114 406 4 1 0
6-15
Risk Assessment ChittagongCityCorporationArea EssentialFacilitiesDamageinChittagongCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase1 Before the earthquake, Chittagong city had 21,664 hospital beds available for use. AforementionedscenariosareappliedonessentialfacilitiesdamageestimationinChittagongcity. Onthedayoftheearthquake,themodelestimatesthatonly923hospitalbeds(4%)areavailable forusebypatientsalreadyinthehospitalandthoseinjuredbytheearthquake.Afteroneweek, 11%ofthebedswillbebackinservice.By30days,17%willbeoperational.
Table 6-31 Expected Damage to Essential Facilities in Chittagong City Corporation Area: Scenario Case 1
Chittagong : Case 1 # Facilities Classification Hospitals Schools EOCs Police Stations Fire Stations Total 162 1,033 11 11 12 At Least Moderate Damage >50% 158 1,011 11 11 12 Complete Damage >50% 127 739 6 10 8 With Functionality >50% on day 1 0 0 0 0 0
EssentialFacilitiesDamageinChittagongCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase2 Before the earthquake, Chittagong city had 21,664 hospital beds available for use. AforementionedscenariosareappliedonessentialfacilitiesdamageestimationinChittagongcity. Onthedayoftheearthquake,HAZUSestimatesthatonly13,900hospitalbeds(64%)areavailable forusebypatientsalreadyinthehospitalandthoseinjuredbytheearthquake.Afteroneweek, 80%ofthebedswillbebackinservice.By30days,91%willbeoperational.
Table 6-32 Expected Damage to Essential Facilities in Chittagong City Corporation Area: Scenario Case 2
Chittagong : Case 2 # Facilities Classification Hospitals Schools EOCs Police Stations Fire Stations Total 162 1,033 11 11 12 At Least Moderate Damage >50% 13 78 0 1 1 Complete Damage >50% 0 3 0 0 0 With Functionality >50% on day 1 123 818 8 7 11
6-16
Risk Assessment EssentialFacilitiesDamageinChittagongCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase3 Before the earthquake, Chittagong city had 21,664 hospital beds available for use. AforementionedscenariosareappliedonessentialfacilitiesdamageestimationinChittagongcity. On the day of the earthquake, the model estimates that only 5,769 hospital beds (27%) are availableforusebypatientsalreadyinthehospitalandthoseinjuredbytheearthquake.Afterone week,44%ofthebedswillbebackinservice.By30days,64%willbeoperational.
Table 6-33 Expected Damage to Essential Facilities in Chittagong City Corporation Area : Scenario Case 3
EssentialFacilitiesDamageinChittagongCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase4 Beforetheearthquake,theregionhad21,664hospitalbedsavailableforuse.Onthedayofthe earthquake, the model estimates that only 8,425 hospital beds (39%) are available for use by patientsalreadyinthehospitalandthoseinjuredbytheearthquake.Afteroneweek,59%ofthe bedswillbebackinservice.By30days,78%willbeoperational.
Table 6-34 Expected Damage to Essential Facilities in Chittagong City Corporation Area : Scenario Case 4
6-17
Risk Assessment SylhetCityCorporationArea EssentialFacilitiesDamageinSylhetCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase1 Before the earthquake, the region had 8,722 hospital beds available for use. On the day of the earthquake, the model estimates that only 1,742 hospital beds (20%) are available for use by patientsalreadyinthehospitalandthoseinjuredbytheearthquake.Afteroneweek,33%ofthe bedswillbebackinservice.By30days,46%willbeoperational.
Table 6-35 Expected Damage to Essential Facilities in Sylhet City Corporation Area : Scenario Case 1
Sylhet : Case 1 # Facilities Classification Hospitals Schools EOCs Police Stations Fire Stations Total 87 211 9 6 2 At Least Moderate Damage >50% 47 111 3 4 0 Complete Damage >50% 43 105 3 4 0 With Functionality >50% on day 1 4 13 0 0 0
EssentialFacilitiesDamageinSylhetCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase2 Before the earthquake, the region had 8,722 hospital beds available for use. On the day of the earthquake, the model estimates that only 5,148 hospital beds (59%) are available for use by patientsalreadyinthehospitalandthoseinjuredbytheearthquake.Afteroneweek,78%ofthe bedswillbebackinservice.By30days,91%willbeoperational.
Table 6-36 Expected Damage to Essential Facilities in Sylhet City Corporation Area: Scenario Case 2
6-18
Risk Assessment EssentialFacilitiesDamageinSylhetCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase3 Before the earthquake, the region had 8,722 hospital beds available for use. On the day of the earthquake, the model estimates that only 1,890 hospital beds (22%) are available for use by patientsalreadyinthehospitalandthoseinjuredbytheearthquake.Afteroneweek,38%ofthe bedswillbebackinservice.By30days,61%willbeoperational.
Table 6-37
Expected Damage to Essential Facilities in Sylhet City Corporation Area: Scenario Case 3
EssentialFacilitiesDamageinSylhetCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase4 Beforetheearthquake, theregion had8,722hospital beds available foruse. Onthe dayof the earthquake, the model estimates that only 1,083 hospital beds (12%) are available for use by patientsalreadyinthehospitalandthoseinjuredbytheearthquake.Afteroneweek,21%ofthe bedswillbebackinservice.By30days,31%willbeoperational.
Table 6-38
Expected Damage to Essential Facilities in Sylhet City Corporation Area: Scenario Case 4
6-19
Risk Assessment EssentialFacilitiesDamageinSylhetCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase5 Beforetheearthquake, theregion had8,722hospital beds available foruse. Onthe dayof the earthquake,themodelestimatesthatonly17hospitalbeds(0%)areavailableforusebypatients alreadyinthehospitalandthoseinjuredbytheearthquake.Afteroneweek,0%ofthebedswill bebackinservice.By30days,0%willbeoperational.
Table 6-39 Expected Damage to Essential Facilities in Sylhet City Corporation Area: Scenario Case 5
6-20
Risk Assessment 6.1.3.TransportationandUtilityDamage TransportationandUtilityDamageinDhakaCityCorporationArea ThefollowingtablesprovidedamageestimatesforthetransportationsystemsDhakaCityCorporationArea.

Table 6-40 Expected Damage to the Transportation Systems in Dhaka City Corporation Area
Scenario 2 Number of Locations With Complete Damage Locations/ Segments Locations/ Segments With at Least Mod. Damage With Functionality >50% After Day 1 After Day 7 Scenario 3 Number of Locations With Complete Damage Locations/ Segments With at Least Mod. Damage With Functionality >50% After Day 1 After Day 7 Scenario 4 Number of Locations With Complete Damage With at Least Mod. Damage With Functionality >50% After Day 1 After Day 7 20,83 8 0 217 0 0 0
Scenario 1 Number of Locations With Complete Damage Locations/ Segments With at Least Mod. Damage With Functionality >50% After Day 1 After Day 7 21,97 9 9 217 19 25 8
System
Componen t
Highwa y Railway Bus Ferry
Roads Bridges Tracks Facilities Facilities Facilities
21,97 9 10 217 19 25 8
0 5 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
21,97 9 4 217 19 25 8
21,97 9 10 217 19 25 8
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
21,97 9 5 217 19 25 8
21,97 9 10 217 19 25 8
21,97 9 10 217 19 25 8
0 3 0 19 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
21,97 9 4 217 19 25 8
21,97 9 10 217 19 25 8
21,97 9 10 217 19 25 8
4,36 8 10 19 19 25 8
4,03 0 7 17 0 6 0
17,59 0 0 198 0 0 0
Highwaysegmentsandrailroadtracksareassumedtobedamagedbygroundfailureonly. The following tables provide information on the damage to the utility lifeline systems. Table 640 provides damage to the utility system facilities.WhileTable641providesestimatesonthenumberofleaksandbreaksbythepipelinesoftheutilitysystems.Forelectricpowerand potablewater,HAZUSperformsasimplifiedsystemperformanceanalysis. 6-21
Risk Assessment
Table 6-41
Scenario 1 Number of Locations With Complete Damage With at Least Moderate Damage With Functionality >50% Total Number
Expected Utility System Facility Damage in Dhaka City Corporation Area

Scenario 2 Number of Locations With Complete Damage With at Least Moderate Damage With Functionality >50% Total Number Scenario 3 Number of Locations With Complete Damage With at Least Moderate Damage With Functionality >50% Total Number Scenario 4 Number of Locations With Complete Damage With at Least Moderate Damage With Functionality >50%
System
Total Number
After Day 1
After Day 7
After Day 1
After Day 7
After Day 1
After Day 7
After Day 1
Potable Water Waste Water Natural Gas Electrical Power Communication
748 14 7 54,815 30
153 2 2 15,200 5
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
747 12 7 0 29
748 14 7 54,815 30
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 10
748 14 7 0 29
748 14 7 54,815 30
748 14 7 0 29
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
457 0 1 0 29
748 14 7 54,815 30
748 14 7 54,815 29
134 3 2 0 6
0 0 0 0 0
Table 6-42
Scenario 1 System Total Pipelines Length (km) 1,118 630 834 Number of Leaks 79 107 56
Expected Utility System Pipeline Damage in Dhaka City Corporation Area

Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Number of Breaks 132 202 86 Total Pipelines Length (km) 1,118 630 834 Number of Leaks 83 122 56 Number of Breaks 290 418 195 Total Pipelines Length (km) 1,118 630 834 Scenario 4 Number of Leaks 311 520 209 Number of Breaks 705 1020 475
Number of Breaks 272 360 191
Total Pipelines Length (km) 1,118 630 834
Number of Leaks 39 62 26
Potable Water Waste Water Natural Gas
6-22
After Day 7 0 0 0 0 3
Risk Assessment
TransportationandUtilityDamageinChittagongCityCorporationArea ThefollowingtablesprovidedamageestimatesforthetransportationsystemsChittagongCityCorporationArea.
Table 6-43 Expected Damage to the Transportation Systems in Chittagong City Corporation Area
Scenario 1 With at Least Mod. Damage With at Least Mod. Damage Number of Locations With Functionality >50% With Complete Damage Scenario 2 With at Least Mod. Damage Number of Locations With Functionality >50% With Complete Damage Scenario 3 With at Least Mod. Damage Number of Locations With Functionality >50% With Complete Damage Scenario 4 Number of Locations With Complete Damage Locations/ Segments With Functionality >50%
Locations/ Segments
Locations/ Segments
System
Component
Locations/ Segments
After Day 1
After Day 7
After Day 1
After Day 7
After Day 1
After Day 7
After Day 1
Highway
Roads Bridges Tracks Facilities Facilities
8,416 4 211 15 11
2,921 4 7 15 10
1,464 4 0 0 0
5,397 0 156 0 1
8,402 0 209 0 11
8,416 4 211 15 11
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
8,416 3 211 15 11
8,416 4 211 15 11
8,416 4 211 15 11
0 1 0 15 5
0 0 0 0 0
8,416 3 211 0 11
8,416 3 211 15 11
8,416 4 211 15 11
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
8,416 3 211 15 11
8,416 4 211 15 11
Railway Bus
Highwaysegmentsandrailroadtracksareassumedtobedamagedbygroundfailureonly. The following tables provide information on the damage to the utility lifeline systems. Table 643 provides damage to the utility system facilities.Whiletable644providesestimatesonthenumberofleaksandbreaksbythepipelinesoftheutilitysystems.Forelectricpowerand potablewater,HAZUSperformsasimplifiedsystemperformanceanalysis. 6-23
After Day 7
Risk Assessment
Table 6-44 Expected Utility System Facility Damage in Chittagong City Corporation Area
Scenario 1 Number of Locations With Complete Damage With at Least Moderate Damage With Functionality >50% Total Number Scenario 2 Number of Locations With Complete Damage With at Least Moderate Damage With Functionality >50% Total Number Scenario 3 Number of Locations With Complete Damage With at Least Moderate Damage With Functionality >50% Total Number Scenario 4 Number of Locations With Complete Damage With at Least Moderate Damage With Functionality >50%
System
Total Number
After Day 1
After Day 7
After Day 1
After Day 7
After Day 1
After Day 7
After Day 1
Potable Water Natural Gas Electrical Power Communication
72 22 28,407 5
72 22 28,40 7 5
4 2 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 19,237 3
72 22 28,40 7 5
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
46 9 15,084 4
72 22 28,407 5
72 22 28,40 7 5
72 22 28,40 7 5
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
28 10 28,405 5
72 22 28,40 7 5
25 13 14,55 5 1
0 0 0 0
0 0 196 0
72 22 28,407 5
Table 6-45 Expected Utility System Pipeline Damage in Chittagong City Corporation Area
Scenario 1 System Total Pipelines Length (km) 542 217 Number of Leaks 320 104 Number of Breaks 407 125 Total Pipelines Length (km) 542 217 Scenario 2 Number of Leaks 17 5 Number of Breaks 53 16 Total Pipelines Length (km) 542 217 Scenario 3 Number of Leaks 45 13 Number of Breaks 129 37 Total Pipelines Length (km) 542 217 Scenario 4 Number of Leaks 25 7 Number of Breaks 81 24
Potable Water Natural Gas
6-24
After Day 7
Risk Assessment
TransportationandUtilityDamageinSylhetCityCorporationArea ThefollowingtablesprovidedamageestimatesforthetransportationsystemsSylhetCityCorporationArea.
Table 6-46 Expected Damage to the Transportation Systems in Sylhet City Corporation Area
Scenario 1 Number of Locations
With Complete Damage Locations/ Segments Locations/ Segments With at Least Mod. Damage With Functionality >50% After Day 1 After Day 7

With Complete Damage Locations/ Segments With at Least Mod. Damage With Functionality >50% After Day 1 After Day 7



With Complete Damage With at Least Mod. Damage With Functionality >50% After Day 1 After Day 7 3,850 0 29 0 0
System
Component
Highway
Roads Bridges Tracks Facilities Facilities
4,204 2 29 7 2
0 1 0 7 2
0 0 0 0 0
4,204 1 29 7 2
4,204 1 29 7 2
4,204 2 29 7 2
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
4,204 1 29 7 2
4,204 2 29 7 2
4,204 2 29 7 2
0 1 0 0 2
0 0 0 0 0
4,204 1 29 0 0
4,204 1 29 7 2
4,204 2 29 7 2
315 1 0 7 2
0 1 0 0 0
3,834 0 27 0 0
4,203 1 29 7 2
4,204 2 29 7 2
1,341 2 29 7 2
1,341 2 28 7 2
2,848 0 0 0 0
Railway Bus
Highwaysegmentsandrailroadtracksareassumedtobedamagedbygroundfailureonly. The following tables provide information on the damage to the utility lifeline systems. Table 646provides damage to the utility system facilities.WhileTable647providesestimatesonthenumberofleaksandbreaksbythepipelinesoftheutilitysystems.Forelectricpowerand potablewater,HAZUSperformsasimplifiedsystemperformanceanalysis. 6-25
Risk Assessment
Table 6-47 Expected Utility System Facility Damage in Sylhet City Corporation Area
With Complete Damage With at Least Moderate Damage With Functionality >50% Total Number




With Complete Damage With at Least Moderate Damage With Functionality >50%
System
Total Number
After Day 1
After Day 7
After Day 1
After Day 7
After Day 1
After Day 7
After Day 1
After Day 7
After Day 1
Potable Water Natural Gas Electrical Power Communication
18 1 9,057 7
18 1 9,057 7
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
5 1 9,056 7
18 1 9,057 7
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 8,830 5
18 1 9,057 7
18 1 9,057 7
18 1 8,885 7
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
5 0 9.056 7
18 1 9,057 7
18 1 9,057 7
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 9,056 7
18 1 9,057 7
18 1 9,057 7
9 1 0 2
0 0 0 0
Table 6-48 Expected Utility System Pipeline Damage in Sylhet City Corporation Area
Scenario 1 System
Total Pipelines Length (km) 128 141 Number of Leaks 10 7 Number of Breaks 21 15 Total Pipelines Length (km) 128 141
Scenario 2
Number of Leaks 2 1 Number of Breaks 4 2 Total Pipelines Length (km) 128 141
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Scenario 5
Number of Leaks 74 56 Number of Breaks 48 41
Potable Water Natural Gas
6-26
After Day 7 0 0 0 0
Risk Assessment
6.2.InducedEarthquakeDamage
6.2.1.FireFollowingEarthquake Fires often occur after an earthquake. Because of the number of fires and the lack of water to fightthefires,theycanoftenburnoutofcontrol.HAZUSusesaMonteCarlosimulationmodelto estimate the number of ignitions and the amount of burnt area. The fire following earthquake damagesin Dhaka, Chittagong andSylhet city corporation area are demonstrated in Table 649, 650and651.
Table 6-49 Fire Following Earthquake in Dhaka City Corporation Area
Damage Ignitions Displace Household Damage Value (millions of dollars) Scenario 1
64 472 1.24
Scenario 2
37 354 1.10
Scenario 3
36 1,586 4.75
Scenario 4
107 1,495 5.49

Table 6-50 Fire Following Earthquake in Chittagong City Corporation Area
Damage Ignitions Displace Household Damage Value (millions of tons) Scenario 1
36 119 0.16
Scenario 2
11 44 0.06
Scenario 3
27 96 0.13
Scenario 4
19 76 0.10

Table 6-51 Fire Following Earthquake in Sylhet City Corporation Area
Damage Ignitions Displace Household Damage Value (millions of tons) Scenario 1
8 25 0.05
Scenario 2
3 21 0.05
Scenario 3
9 56 0.15
Scenario 4
10 46 0.12
Scenario 5
13 97 0.2
6-27
Risk Assessment 6.2.2.DebrisGeneration HAZUS estimates the amount of debris that will be generated by the earthquake. The model breaksthedebrisintotwogeneralcategories: a)Brick/Wood b)ReinforcedConcrete/Steel. Thisdistinctionismadebecauseofthedifferenttypesofmaterialhandlingequipmentrequiredto handlethedebris.Table652to654showalldebrisgenerationsinDhaka,ChittagongandSylhet citycorporationarea.
Table 6-52 Debris Generation in Dhaka City Corporation Area
Debris Generation Debris (millions of tons) Brick/ Wood (%) Concrete/ Steel (%) Truck Load Required (@25 tons / truck) Scenario 1
30 27.00 73.00 1,200,000
Scenario 2
18 24.00 76.00 720,000
Scenario 3
30 28.00 72.00 1,200,000
Scenario 4
72 26.00 74.00 2,880,000
Table 6-53 Debris Generation in Chittagong City Corporation Area

17 26.00 74.00 680,000
Scenario 2
3 27.00 73.00 120,000
Scenario 3
8 28.00 72.00 320,000
Scenario 4
5 30.00 70.00 200,000
Table 6-54 Debris Generation in Sylhet City Corporation Area

2 29.00 71.00 80,000
Scenario 2
0 31.00 69.00 0
Scenario 3
1 30.00 70.00 40,000
Scenario 4
3 28.00 72.00 120,000
Scenario 5
5 26.00 74.00 200,000
6-28
Risk Assessment
6.3.SocialImpactCasualties
HAZUS estimates the number of people that will be injured and killed by the earthquake. The casualties are broken down into four (4) severity levels that describe the extent of the injuries. Thelevelsaredescribedasfollows; o SeverityLevel1:Injurieswillrequiremedicalattentionbuthospitalizationisnotneeded. o SeverityLevel2:Injurieswillrequirehospitalizationbutarenotconsideredlifethreatening o SeverityLevel3:Injurieswillrequirehospitalizationandcanbecomelifethreateningifnot promptlytreated. o SeverityLevel4:Victimsarekilledbytheearthquake. The casualty estimates are provided for two times of day: 2:00 AM and 2:00 PM. These times represent the periods of the day that different sectors of the community are at their peak occupancyloads.The2:00AMestimateconsidersthattheresidentialoccupancyloadismaximum andthe2:00PMestimateconsidersthattheeducational,commercialandindustrialsectorloads aremaximum. DhakaCityCorporationArea SocialImpactinDhakaCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase1
Table 6-55 Summary of the casualties estimated for earthquake in Dhaka City Corporation: Scenario Case 1
Dhaka : Case 1 2 AM Commercial Commuting Educational Hotels Industrial Other-Residential Single Family Total Commercial Commuting Educational Hotels Industrial Other-Residential Single Family Total Level 1 964 0 0 117 391 119,889 454 121,815 69,278 0 18,185 23 2,918 40,473 153 131,029 Level 2 182 0 0 21 72 20,975 84 21,355 13,525 0 3,659 4 554 8,132 32 25,905 Level 3 53 0 0 6 22 5,182 25 5,287 3,863 0 1,020 1 166 1,983 9 7,043 Level 4 390 0 0 70 191 87,617 234 88,503 27,422 0 6,120 13 1,390 26,273 70 61,288
2 PM
6-29
Risk Assessment SocialImpactinDhakaCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase2

Dhaka : Case 2 2 AM Commercial Commuting Educational Hotels Industrial Other-Residential Single Family Total Commercial Commuting Educational Hotels Industrial Other-Residential Single Family Total Level 1 487 0 0 70 178 74,402 254 75,391 34,993 0 8,223 14 1,328 25,230 86 69,874 Level 2 90 0 0 12 32 12,830 47 13,011 6,707 0 1,642 2 247 5,011 18 13,628 Level 3 25 0 0 3 9 3,018 14 3,069 1,825 0 441 1 69 1,183 5 3,525 Level 4 213 0 0 45 90 58,356 155 58,858 14,945 0 2,999 9 651 17,545 47 36,195
2 PM
SocialImpactinDhakaCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase3
Dhaka : Case 3 2 AM Commercial Commuting Educational Hotels Industrial Other-Residential Single Family Total Commercial Commuting Educational Hotels Industrial Other-Residential Single Family Total Level 1 837 0 0 106 373 125,216 510 127,042 60,531 0 16,488 20 2,778 42,280 172 122,271 Level 2 158 0 0 19 70 21,714 94 22,054 11,782 0 3,304 4 532 8,429 36 24,086 Level 3 47 0 0 5 22 5,281 28 5,383 3,449 0 935 1 167 2,029 10 6,590 Level 4 333 0 0 58 167 94,435 275 95,267 23,660 0 5,555 11 1,214 28,339 83 58,862
2 PM
6-30
Risk Assessment SocialImpactinDhakaCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase4

Dhaka : Case 4 2 AM Commercial Commuting Educational Hotels Industrial Other-Residential Single Family Total Commercial Commuting Educational Hotels Industrial Other-Residential Single Family Total Level 1 2,765 0 0 319 1,303 330,701 1,459 336,547 192,184 0 50,617 62 9,722 111,216 491 364,292 Level 2 561 0 0 61 263 59,925 282 61,093 40,106 0 10,884 12 2,012 23,070 107 76,191 Level 3 181 0 0 19 90 15,848 88 16,227 12,677 0 3,314 4 676 5,887 31 22,589 Level 4 1,211 0 0 190 651 257,875 860 260,788 82,410 0 19,089 36 4,725 76,932 257 183,450
2 PM
ChittagongCityCorporationArea SocialImpactinChittagongCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase1
Table 6-59 Summary of the casualties estimated for earthquake in Chittagong City Corporation: Scenario Case 1
Chittagong : Case 1 2 AM Commercial Commuting Educational Hotels Industrial Other-Residential Single Family Total Commercial Commuting Educational Hotels Industrial Other-Residential Single Family Total Level 1 616 0 0 404 1,102 74,889 60,052 137,063 43,086 0 6,586 78 8,284 25,292 21,239 104,566 Level 2 113 0 0 67 191 13,734 11,606 25,712 8,146 0 1,205 13 1,509 5,206 4,701 20,781 Level 3 34 0 0 17 47 3,691 3,486 7,275 2,425 0 320 3 370 1,350 1,321 5,790 Level 4 473 0 0 394 981 57,809 35,525 95,183 31,877 0 5,550 75 7,118 17,423 11,169 73,212
2 PM
6-31
Risk Assessment SocialImpactinChittagongCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase2

Chittagong : Case 2 2 AM Commercial Commuting Educational Hotels Industrial Other-Residential Single Family Total Commercial Commuting Educational Hotels Industrial Other-Residential Single Family Total Level 1 76 0 0 47 217 10,820 8,024 19,185 5,417 0 854 9 1,633 3,669 2,860 14,442 Level 2 13 0 0 7 36 1,787 1,372 3,215 930 0 143 1 280 694 568 2,616 Level 3 3 0 0 2 7 413 340 765 230 0 33 0 55 161 138 618 Level 4 57 0 0 41 165 8,566 5,104 13,932 3,936 0 681 8 1,194 2,573 1,601 9,993
2 PM
SocialImpactinChittagongCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase3
Chittagong : Case 3 2 AM Commercial Commuting Educational Hotels Industrial Other-Residential Single Family Total Commercial Commuting Educational Hotels Industrial Other-Residential Single Family Total Level 1 254 0 0 186 555 32,314 26,375 59,684 17,821 0 2,448 36 4,173 10,939 9,333 44,751 Level 2 44 0 0 30 93 5,565 4,818 10,550 3,213 0 426 6 734 2,143 1,950 8,473 Level 3 12 0 0 7 21 1,405 1,353 2,799 899 0 106 1 169 530 519 2,224 Level 4 183 0 0 172 465 24,658 14,976 40,453 12,376 0 1,873 33 3,370 7,413 4,706 29,771
2 PM
6-32
Risk Assessment SocialImpactinChittagongCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase4

Chittagong : Case 4 2 AM Commercial Commuting Educational Hotels Industrial Other-Residential Single Family Total Commercial Commuting Educational Hotels Industrial Other-Residential Single Family Total Level 1 139 0 0 104 283 18,630 14,021 33,176 9,794 0 1,396 20 2,128 6,306 4,954 24,598 Level 2 24 0 0 16 46 3,132 2,480 5,697 1,714 0 236 3 362 1,203 999 4,517 Level 3 6 0 0 4 10 761 670 1,451 460 0 57 1 80 288 257 1,143 Level 4 97 0 0 92 225 13,804 7,672 21,889 6,600 0 1,049 18 1,633 4,155 2,408 15,863
2 PM
SylhetCityCorporationArea SocialImpactinSylhetCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase1
Table 6-63 Summary of the casualties estimated for earthquake in Sylhet City Corporation: Scenario Case 1
Sylhet : Case 1 2 AM Commercial Commuting Educational Hotels Industrial Other-Residential Single Family Total Commercial Commuting Educational Hotels Industrial Other-Residential Single Family Total Level 1 40 0 0 41 15 3,633 10,960 14,689 3,296 0 942 8 112 1,347 3,959 9,665 Level 2 7 0 0 7 3 644 2,101 2,761 624 0 173 1 21 271 819 1,910 Level 3 2 0 0 2 1 193 760 958 199 1 48 0 7 77 276 608 Level 4 29 0 0 41 10 2,801 6,625 9,506 2,214 0 769 8 74 929 2,156 6,151
2 PM
6-33
Risk Assessment
SocialImpactinSylhetCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase2
Sylhet : Case 2 2 AM Commercial Commuting Educational Hotels Industrial Other-Residential Single Family Total 2 PM Commercial Commuting Educational Hotels Industrial Other-Residential Single Family Total Level 1 5 0 0 6 2 451 899 1,363 391 0 142 1 13 169 325 1,041 Level 2 1 0 0 1 0 70 140 212 64 0 23 0 2 30 57 177 Level 3 0 0 0 0 0 16 35 51 15 0 5 0 0 7 14 42 Level 4 4 0 0 5 1 321 561 892 264 0 105 1 9 108 181 667
Sylhet : Case 3 2 AM Commercial Commuting Educational Hotels Industrial Other-Residential Single Family Total 2 PM Commercial Commuting Educational Hotels Industrial Other-Residential Single Family Total Level 1 23 0 0 26 8 2,076 5,375 7,508 1,853 0 544 5 61 771 1,940 5,173 Level 2 4 0 0 4 1 351 968 1,329 332 0 95 1 11 148 379 966 Level 3 1 0 0 1 0 96 319 417 97 0 25 0 3 39 117 282 Level 4 17 0 0 25 5 1,548 3,129 4,723 1,237 0 429 5 39 516 1,017 3,242
6-34
Risk Assessment SocialImpactinSylhetCityCorporationArea:ScenarioCase4

Sylhet : Case 4 2 AM Commercial Commuting Educational Hotels Industrial Other-Residential Single Family Total 2 PM Commercial Commuting Educational Hotels Industrial Other-Residential Single Family Total Level 1 56 0 0 52 20 5,190 14,138 19,455 4,592 0 1,253 10 149 1,908 5,094 13,005 Level 2 10 0 0 8 4 929 2,750 3,701 873 0 230 2 29 385 1,067 2,586 Level 3 3 0 0 2 1 274 995 1,275 275 0 65 0 10 107 359 817 Level 4 42 0 0 54 14 4,209 8,788 13,107 3,301 0 1,071 10 100 1,385 2,855 8,724
Sylhet : Case 5 2 AM Commercial Commuting Educational Hotels Industrial Other-Residential Single Family Total 2 PM Commercial Commuting Educational Hotels Industrial Other-Residential Single Family Total Level 1 83 0 0 77 27 8,233 19,806 28,226 7,100 0 1,924 15 202 3,031 7,142 19,414 Level 2 15 0 0 12 5 1,466 3,872 5,370 1,341 0 350 2 40 609 1,506 3,850 Level 3 5 0 0 3 2 422 1,382 1,814 412 0 99 1 13 166 500 1,190 Level 4 69 0 0 83 19 7,300 13,236 20,708 5,645 0 1,771 16 141 2,403 4,301 14,276
6-35
Risk Assessment
6.4.EconomicLoss
6.4.1.BuildingLosses
Table 6-68 Building-Related Economic Loss Estimates (Millions of dollars) in Dhaka City Corporation Area
Case Capital Stock Loses

Structural
Single Family Dwelling (SFD) Residential

2.11 6.07 1.59 1.10 3.31 0.89 2.33 6.92 1.95 5.39 17.34 4.45
Non-SFD
506.99 2,548.89 685.41 316.55 1,524.76 393.10 533.91 2,797.11 820.14 1,216.98 6,352.31 1,703.53
Commercial
499.53 755.94 461.56 278.97 405.95 253.3 439.56 670.53 427.30 1,071.05 2,000.20 1,245.12
Industrial
38.22 154.86 114.56 19.71 80.28 59.21 37.15 158.32 118.46 88.15 439.14 317.48
Others
65.31 238.45 129.86 33.71 123.13 69.07 62.99 221.42 125.78 154.42 634.52 352.66
Total
1,112.15 3,704.21 1,392.99 650.04 2,137.43 775.57 1,075.93 3,854.31 1,493.63 2,535.99 9,443.52 3,623.24
Non_ Structural Content Structural
Non_ Structural Content
Table 6-69 Building-Related Economic Loss Estimates (Millions of dollars) in Chittagong City Corporation Area

Structural
Single Family Dwelling(SFD) Residential

173.10 553.71 0 35.06 85.49 0 93.43 260.69 0 55.70 142.53 0
Non-SFD
228.45 971.86 0 39.72 150.69 0 109.9 456.03 0 69.15 266.08 0
Commercial
263.40 348.75 186.30 51.09 45.85 25.63 139.77 154.30 87.59 85.60 87.67 51.15
Industrial
26.74 135.30 100.41 6.74 23.52 17.72 15.80 69.41 52.69 8.91 34.82 26.77
Others
19.32 67.63 37.17 2.96 8.37 4.82 8.16 25.98 16.08 5.12 15.44 9.67
Total
711.00 2,077.25 323.88 135.58 313.93 48.17 367.05 966.41 156.36 224.47 546.54 87.59
6-36
Risk Assessment
Table 6-70 Building-Related Economic Loss Estimates (Millions of dollars) in Sylhet City Corporation Area

Structural
Single Family Dwelling(SFD) Residential

69.50 201.09 48.89 8.80 16.73 5.21 41.94 105.61 28.48 84.03 256.72 63.67 110.51 351.02 85.33
Non-SFD
18.45 94.78 23.79 3.33 13.04 3.49 12.49 60.32 16.44 24.64 131.06 32.24 38.01 197.79 45.15
Commercial
30.06 45.29 25.52 5.96 6.27 3.75 21.06 29.38 17.69 38.47 61.90 34.44 53.89 87.92 46.64
Industrial
1.51 6.68 4.91 0.27 0.88 0.69 0.98 4.01 3.05 1.88 9.17 6.60 2.40 12.43 8.70
Others
4.69 17.98 10.72 0.90 2.69 1.70 3.26 11.39 7.33 6.14 24.47 14.24 8.97 36.93 19.70
Total
124.21 365.82 113.84 19.26 39.61 14.84 79.73 210.71 73.00 155.15 483.32 151.19 213.77 686.09 205.51
6-37
Risk Assessment 6.4.2.TransportationandUtilityLosses DhakaCityCorporationArea TransportationandUtilitySystemsEconomicLossesinDhakaCityCorporationArea Forthetransportationandutilitylifelinesystems,HAZUScomputesthedirectrepaircostforeachcomponentonly.Therearenolossescomputed byHAZUSforbusinessinterruptionduetolifelineoutages.Tables671and672provideadetailedbreakdownintheexpectedlifelinelosses. ThefollowingtableprovideseconomiclossesestimatesforthetransportationsystemsofDhakaCityCorporationArea.

Table 6-71 Transportation System Economic Losses in Dhaka City Corporation Area (in million of dollars)
Scenario 1 System Component Roads Highway Bridges Subtotal Tracks Railways Facilities Subtotal Bus Ferry Facilities Subtotal Facilities Subtotal Total
Inventory Value 1,479.39 26.53 1,505.90 66.52 9.20 75.7 3.68 3.70 0.80 0.80 1586.1 Economics Loss 95.43 1.24 96.7 2.04 2.11 4.20 0.93 0.90 0.14 0.10 101.9 17.78 25.37 3.07 22.92 Loss Ratio (%) 6.45 4.66 Inventory Value 1,479.39 26.53 1,505.90 66.52 9.20 75.7 3.68 3.70 0.80 0.80 1,586.10
Scenario 2
Economics Loss 36.73 0.86 37.6 0.76 1.24 2.00 0.53 0.50 0.10 0.10 40.2 12.51 14.53 1.15 13.5 Loss Ratio (%) 2.48 3.23 Inventory Value 1479.39 26.53 1505.90 66.52 9.20 75.70 3.68 3.70 0.80 0.80 1586.1
Scenario 3
Economics Loss 101.71 1.17 102.9 0.46 3.52 6.60 1.41 1.40 0.24 0.20 111.1 29.98 38.30 4.62 38.22 Loss Ratio (%) 6.88 4.40 Inventory Value 1,479.39 26.53 1505.90 66.52 9.20 75.70 3.68 3.70 0.80 0.80 1586.10
Scenario 4
Economics Loss 311.43 2.66 314.10 12.42 6.04 18.50 2.83 2.80 0.51 0.50 335.90 63.89 77.02 18.67 65.61 Loss Ratio (%) 21.05 10.04
Thefollowingtablesprovideinformationontheeconomiclossestotheutilitysystems. 6-38
Risk Assessment
Table 6-72 Utility System Economic Losses in Dhaka City Corporation Area (in million of dollars)
Scenario 1 System Component Pipelines Facilities Subtotal Waste Water Pipelines Facilities Subtotal Natural Gas Pipelines Facilities Subtotal Electrical Power Communication Facilities Subtotal Facilities Subtotal Total
Inventory Value 13.10 140.20 153.28 2.90 60.60 63.48 7.70 7.00 14.66 75.80 75.76 81.00 81.00 388.18 Economics Loss 1.61 20.58 22.19 3.18 5.33 8.51 0.43 1.28 1.72 15.6 15.6 11.24 11.24 59.25 13.87 20.59 5.66 18.35 111.13 8.79 Loss Ratio (%) 12.32 14.68 Inventory Value 13.10 140.20 153.28 2.90 60.6 63.48 7.70 7.00 14.66 75.80 75.76 81.00 81.00 388.18
Scenario 2
Economics Loss 0.80 10.18 10.99 1.98 4.13 6.10 0.20 0.49 0.68 5.40 5.40 5.20 5.20 28.37 6.42 7.13 2.58 6.94 69.15 6.81 Loss Ratio (%) 6.13 7.26 Inventory Value 13.10 140.20 153.28 2.90 60.60 63.48 7.70 7.00 14.66 75.80 75.76 81.00 81.00 388.18
Scenario 3
Economics Loss 1.74 36.32 38.06 3.92 10.02 13.94 0.45 1.94 2.39 21.77 21.77 19.79 19.79 95.96 24.44 28.74 5.82 27.72 137.22 16.53 Loss Ratio (%) 13.29 25.91 Inventory Value 13.09 140.19 153.28 2.86 60.62 63.48 7.66 7.00 14.66 75.76 75.76 81.00 81.00 388.18
Scenario 4
Economics Loss 0.80 10.18 10.99 1.98 4.13 6.10 0.20 0.49 0.68 5.40 5.40 5.20 5.20 28.37 6.42 7.13 2.58 6.94 69.15 6.81 Loss Ratio (%) 6.13 7.26
Potable Water
6-39
Risk Assessment ChittagongCityCorporationArea TransportationandUtilitySystemsEconomicLossesinChittagongCity CorporationArea ThefollowingtableprovideseconomiclossesestimatesforthetransportationsystemsofChittagongCityCorporationArea.

Table 6-73 Transportation System Economic Losses in Chittagong City Corporation Area (in million of dollars)
Scenario 1 System Component Roads Highway Bridges Subtotal Tracks Railways Facilities Subtotal Bus Facilities Subtotal Total
Inventory Value 725.67 6.56 732.2 98.2 7.36 105.6 1.55 1.6 839.3 Economics Loss 164.49 1.23 165.7 9.09 4.88 14 0.71 0.7 180.4 45.53 9.25 66.25 Loss Ratio (%) 22.67 18.84 Inventory Value 725.67 6.56 732.2 98.2 7.36 105.6 1.55 1.6 839.3
Scenario 2
Economics Loss 11.81 0.08 11.9 0.18 0.52 0.7 0.25 0.2 12.8 15.88 0.19 7.03 Loss Ratio (%) 1.63 1.24 Inventory Value 725.67 6.56 732.2 98.2 7.36 105.6 1.55 1.6 839.3
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Economics Loss 15.54 0.15 15.70 0.27 1.47 1.70 0.43 0.40 17.90 27.74 0.27 20.00 Loss Ratio (%) 2.14 2.30
Thefollowingtablesprovideinformationontheeconomiclossestotheutilitysystems. 6-40
Risk Assessment
Table 6-74 Utility System Economic Losses in Chittagong City Corporation Area (in million of dollars)
Scenario 1 System Component Pipelines Facilities Subtotal Natural Gas Pipelines Facilities Subtotal Electrical Power Communication Facilities Subtotal Facilities Subtotal Total
Inventory Value 3.6 69.6 73.18 0.4 22.00 22.36 33.4 33.35 19.00 19.00 147.89 Economics Loss 2.47 24.76 27.24 0 10.52 10.52 15.94 15.94 9.53 9.53 63.23 50.16 47.8 0 47.82 Loss Ratio (%) 68.38 35.6 Inventory Value 3.6 69.6 73.18 0.4 22.00 22.36 33.4 33.35 19.00 19.00 147.89
Scenario 2
Economics Loss 0.25 5.87 6.12 0 1.57 1.58 1.47 1.47 0.77 0.77 9.94 4.05 4.42 0 7.14 Loss Ratio (%) 6.94 8.44 Inventory Value 3.6 69.6 73.18 0.4 22.00 22.36 33.4 33.35 19.00 19.00 147.89
Scenario 3
Economics Loss 0.67 15.56 16.23 0 5.67 5.67 9.58 9.58 5.31 5.31 36.79 27.97 28.73 0 25.76 Loss Ratio (%) 18.4 22.37 Inventory Value 3.6 69.6 73.18 0.4 22.00 22.36 33.4 33.35 19.00 19.00 147.89
Scenario 4
Economics Loss 0.41 11.87 12.28 0.00 3.58 3.58 3.99 3.99 2.20 2.20 22.05 11.60 11.97 0.00 16.26 Loss Ratio (%) 11.19 17.07
Potable Water
6-41
Risk Assessment SylhetCityCorporationArea TransportationandUtilitySystemsEconomicLossesinSylhetCityCorporationArea ThefollowingtableprovideseconomiclossesestimatesforthetransportationsystemsofSylhetCityCorporationArea.

Table 6-75 Transportation System Economic Losses in Sylhet City Corporation Area (in million of dollars)
Scenario 1 System Component Roads Bridges Subtotal Railways Tracks Facilities Subtotal Bus Facilities Subtotal Total
Inventory Value 178.35 2.55 180.9 6.99 3.44 10.4 0.16 0.2 191.5 Economics Loss 6.78 0.41 7.2 9.2 1.2 1.4 0.06 0.1 8.6 34.88 2.84 34.76 Loss Ratio (%) 3.8 15.9 Inventory Value 178.35 2.55 180.9 6.99 3.44 10.4 0.16 0.2 191.5
Scenario 2
Economics Loss 1.27 0.16 1.4 0.01 0.35 0.4 0.02 0 1.8 10.25 0.15 10.18 Loss Ratio (%) 0.71 6.2 Inventory Value 178.35 2.55 180.9 6.99 3.44 10.4 0.16 0.2 191.5
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Scenario 5
Economics Loss 75.31 0.58 75.90 6.15 3.44 9.60 0.16 0.20 85.70 100.00 88.07 100.00 Loss Ratio (%) 42.23 22.85
Highway
Thefollowingtablesprovideinformationontheeconomiclossestotheutilitysystems.
6-42
Risk Assessment
Table 6-76 Utility System Economic Losses in Sylhet City Corporation Area (in million of dollars)
Scenario 1 Component
Economics Loss Inventory Value Inventory Value Loss Ratio (%)
Scenario 2
Economics Loss Inventory Value Loss Ratio (%)
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Scenario 5
Economics Loss Loss Ratio (%) 461.52 81.03 236.96 100.00 63.73 68.32
System
Pipelines Potable Water Facilities Subtotal Pipelines Natural Gas Electrical Power Communication Facilities Subtotal Facilities Subtotal Facilities Subtotal Total
0.5 2.4 2.9 0.4 1 1.42 14.3 14.26 23 23 41.58
0.92 0.63 1.55 0.3 0.23 0.53 3.66 3.66 5.49 5.49 11.23
168.15 26.73
0.5 2.4 2.9
0.16 0.12 0.28 0.04 0.05 0.09 0.76 0.76 1.53 1.53 2.66
29.12 5.17
0.5 2.4 2.9
0.47 0.64 1.12 0.16 0.28 0.44 3.9 3.9 5.81 5.81 11.27
86.41 27.29
0.5 2.4 2.90
1.15 0.90 2.06 0.43 0.34 0.77 5.00 5.00 7.30 7.30 15.13
209.89 38.37
0.5 2.4 2.90
2.53 1.91 4.44 0.99 1.00 1.99 9.09 0.09 15.71 15.71 31.23
72.13 23.16
0.4 1 1.42
8.6 5.06
0.4 1 1.42
38.44 27.95
0.40 1.00 1.42
102.55 34.31
0.40 1.00 1.42
25.69
14.3 14.26
5.34
14.3 14.26
27.37
14.30 14.30
35.09
14.30 14.26
23.85
23 23 41.58
6.65
23 23 41.58
25.25
23.00 23.00 41.58
31.75
23.00 23.00 41.58
6-43
Appendix
AppendixA:RegionalpopulationandBuildingvaluedata
Table A-7
VAZ No. 1 2 3 4
Regional population and Building value data of Dhaka City Corporation Area
Ward No. 1 Cantonment and Airport Area 15 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 84 85 86 31 32 33 34 35 36 53 37 38 39 40 41 Population 217,075 0 214,930 395,300 Building Value (millions of dollars) NonTotal Residential Residential 515 0 173 601 205 0 47 180 721 0 220 781
Characteristics This zone is a newly developed residential area This zone is the most restricted area of Dhaka city containing the Airport and Cantonment Bhasantek, Manikdi, Balurghat Mirpur10, Pallabi, Senpara
5 6
Mirpur1,2,6,7 This zone is the main recreational zone of the city containing the national zoo and botanical garden Diabari,Golartek, Jahanabad, Bagbari, Paikpara Kazipar, Shewrapar, Monipur Old Airport, Kafrul, Ibrahimpur Bashundhara, Khilkhet, Kuril Shahjadpur, Uttar Badda This part is the High Class Residential area in the Eastern part of Dhaka This zone is well known as eastern fringe and densely populated Rampura, Hajipara Khilgaon, Malibag Meradia, Goran Madartek
275,625 117,468
489 221
130 52
620 274
332,887
562
158
720
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
407,767 196,701 253,020 73,343 246,398 126,237 164,727 64,862 291,416
795 330 420 176 484 259 153 56 247
131 73 110 45 297 69 55 35 107
926 403 530 222 781 328 208 92 355
17
Bashabo, Mayakanon, Mugdapara,
263,775
235
120
355
18
Maniknagar, Jatrabari, Saidabad
306,219
324
184
509
19
Shajahanpur, Shantibag, Fakirapul, Motijheel
226,996
300
259
559
20 21 22 23 24 25
Shantinagar, Shiddeshawri, Ramna This part is the one and only Industrial area Nakhalpara, Shahinbag Farmgate, Indira road, Kawranbazar Sherebangla Nagar, Agargaon
112,733 57,637 75,325 58,562 76,136 32,197
191 114 76 139 211 66
114 160 90 76 77 29
306 275 166 215 288 95
Appendix
Table A-1
VAZ No.
Regional population and Building value data of Dhaka City Corporation Area (Contd)
Characteristics Ward No. 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 87 88 89 90 Population Building Value (millions of dollars) NonTotal Residential Residential 674 158 832
26
Shaymoli, Lalmatia,
302,547
27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37
Adabor, Bashbari Rayerbazar, Hazaribag Dhanmondi, Mohammodpur Kathalbagan, Green Road Kalabagan, Sobahanbag,Shukrabad BDR HQ, New Market, Elephant Road Magbazar, Newskaton Nayatola, Modhubag Shegunbagicha, Bijoynagar, Palton Dhaka University, Shahbag Azimpur, Nawabgonj, Companyghat
221,230 108,441 73,114 64,598 55,954 40,286 92,712 82,559 27,305 40,238 96,617
456 270 272 220 190 127 119 71 40 86 236
81 78 109 35 38 81 47 46 105 89 29
537 348 382 256 228 208 166 118 146 175 266
38
This is one of the parts of old Dhaka containing different higher educational institution
320,744
612
251
864
39
This is one of the parts of old Dhaka and performs as the CBD of old Dhaka
278,351
214
501
716
40
This is considered as the only planned area of the entire old part of Dhaka
232,715
322
240
563
41
This is one of the parts of old Dhaka and mostly performs the residential characteristics
334,746
308
258
567
42
Gendaria, Dholaipar, Jurain, Faridabad
320,175
257
161
419
Total Region
7,279,668
11,611
5,110
16,740
Appendix
Table A-8
Ward No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 Total Region
Regional population and Building value data of Chittagong City Corporation Area
Population 61,736 109,556 71,403 131,212 62,707 84,568 108,044 145,948 98,272 53,550 73,468 67,199 71,385 35,553 40,284 65,586 58,058 54,769 31,243 23,773 32,959 26,817 30,481 128,613 62,725 45,956 52,679 40,149 33,674 36,305 16,586 24,687 24,559 24,066 17,297 31,985 28,239 60,042 53,178 74,096 39,199 2,332,606 Residential 69 110 58 129 61 79 103 148 91 49 77 64 79 39 44 53 60 59 35 30 37 25 29 141 62 48 52 38 33 34 11 24 21 15 9 36 30 71 50 84 50 2,337 Building Value (millions of dollars) Non-Residential 24 80 32 73 20 39 57 66 28 29 15 28 25 9 14 40 14 18 13 3 7 11 13 37 18 10 19 23 14 27 16 18 22 31 34 11 6 18 36 20 5 1,023 Total 94 190 90 203 82 119 160 215 119 78 92 92 105 48 59 93 75 78 49 33 44 37 42 178 81 59 71 61 47 61 27 42 43 47 44 47 37 89 86 105 56 3,378
Appendix
Table A-9
Ward No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 Total Region
Regional population and Building value data of Sylhet City Corporation Area
Population 9,277 6,624 10,949 9,958 17,263 10,750 23,371 24,200 22,349 20,367 14,963 14,836 10,149 12,008 9,009 9,642 14,484 14,410 17,594 13,338 17,385 9,576 7,846 24,292 14,053 17,621 25,459 401,773 Residential 26 12 19 23 28 18 54 48 38 46 24 20 18 15 15 17 26 27 28 29 33 31 10 31 26 25 28 715 Building Value (millions of dollars) Non-Residential 5 5 8 5 4 3 4 6 9 8 4 7 9 24 8 5 8 2 3 6 4 4 4 5 7 23 14 194 Total 32 18 28 28 33 22 58 54 48 55 29 28 28 39 24 23 34 30 31 35 37 35 14 37 34 49 43 926
Appendix
AppendixB:CorrelationMatrixinuse
Table B-1
Occ. RES1 RES2A RES2B RES2C RES3A RES3B RES3C RES3D RES4 RES5 RES6 COM1 COM2 COM3 COM4 COM5 COM6 COM7 COM8 COM9 COM10 IND1 IND2 IND3 IND4 IND5 IND6 AGR1 REL1 GOV1 GOV2 EDU1 EDU2 C1L C1M
Correlation Matrix of Structural type and Building occupancy in Dhaka (Shown in a percentage of the buildings floor area)
C1H LCL LCM C2H C3L C3M C3H C4L C4M C4H Concrete S3 S1L Steel BCL BCM BFL BLL Masonry TSL BAL
TS+BA
Total
10 13 1 3 2 1
2 6 9 13 6 1 1
71 48 7 1 12 1 4 8 15 100 23 4 58 15 5 2 47 41 19 9 6 12
40 11
5 33 80 46 69 72 29 4 44 65 9 13 30 32 19 33 21 39 50 27 34 91 67 32 23 17 15 42 46 21
3 1 37 1 11 52 82
4 2 8 11 2
3 10 14
9 1 11 12 15 1 4 3 3 2 16 5 20 12 37 23 2 6
16 1 2 21
14 15 4 2
41
18 1 11 2
16 6 2 1 8 27 9 2 3 30 38
53
19 12 11 15 3 1 7 9 100
7 1 5 5 6 15 5 16
1 19 2
2 19 6 3 3 15 6 2 8 6 1
1 5 4
26
30 4
53
33 5 19 35 11 50 41 9
10 37 24
14
10
55 73 94 88 89 97 99 100 62 34 0 2 32 63 22 70 51 64 13 55 41 78 7 28 2 100 100 6 35 52 9 16 53
100 100 100
100 52 100
48
35
65
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0
63 61 27 6 28
5 6 63 90 70 100 100
29 31 9 4 2
3 3 1
62 18 30 34 15 46 100 29 100 62 100 42 13 26 45
66
36 48 71
38 16 70 63 49 50 6
2 50
22 43 33 11 53 74 100 55
16 4
43 77 42 91 63 85
42 30
44 23 12 9 7 15
13 4
44 26 6 12 11 3 1 0 38 61 1 87 68 12 78 30 48 36 80 45 59 18 85 72 80 0 0 75 59 47 91 81 47
88 92 85
12 8 15
100 90 90 100
10 10
100 59 41
100 100 100
81 100
19 100
100
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 99 5 0 5 0 0 1 0 7 0 0 3 8 0 16 0 0 15 6 2 0 3 0
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Appendix
Table B-2
Occ.
RES1 RES2A RES2B RES2C RES3A RES3B RES3C RES3D RES4 RES5 RES6 COM1 COM2 COM3 COM4 COM5 COM6 COM7 COM8 COM9 COM10 IND1 IND2 IND3 IND4 IND5 IND6 AGR1 REL1 GOV1 GOV2 EDU1 EDU2
Correlation Matrix of Structural type and Building occupancy in Chittagong (Shown in a percentage of the buildings floor area)
LCL LCM C3L C3M C3H C4L C4M Concrete S3 Steel BCL BCM BFL BLL Masonry TSL BAL TSL+BAL Total
C1L
C1M
4 1 1 6
17 13 9 9 7
2 11 25 3 3 1
77 70 27 10 35 8
10 39 7 30 5 18 5
19 17 2
8 13 8 7 16 9 2 17
14 6 3 9 5 4
49 48 61 63 9 57 24 66 46 42 50 100 31 16 20 59 41 100 20 100 84 63 100 68 45
2 12 51 51 53 79 24 100 51 36
10 75
67 8 30 34 54 58 42 42 22 55 24 43 14 3 31 15 23 39
4 53 14
66
28
57 66 87 90 94 94 96 100 92 66 8 53 95 62 87 89 91 77 69 86 88 96 90 71 75 70 93 54 90 77 90 87 93
100
100 100 100 100
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 4 18 0 3 0 13 0 0 0 0 0
33 37 39 52 59 22 17
22 32 25 75 83
65 60 38 16 17 3
3 2
56 22
16
80 20 66 100 100 100 66 31 47 16
100 28 78 77 20 80 18
22
34 22 46 100 53 100 100 100 28 11 13 22 17
72 81 87 78 83
40 24 12 10 6 6 4 0 5 33 19 40 5 26 13 11 9 23 23 14 11 3 6 9 25 28 4 16 10 23 10 12 7
21 26 28 59
79 74 72 41
42 21 41 68
100 58 79 59 32 100
100 30 100 74 100 70 26
19
81 100
42 100
58
3 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 73 7 0 12 0 0 0 0 3 0 1 1 1 2 0 0 3 18 0 0 0 1 1
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Appendix
Table B-3
Occ.
RES1 RES2A RES2B RES2C RES3A RES3B RES3C RES4 RES5 RES6 COM1 COM2 COM3 COM4 COM5 COM6 COM7 COM8 COM9 COM10 IND1 IND2 IND3 IND6 AGR1 REL1 GOV1 GOV2 EDU1 EDU2
Correlation Matrix of Structural type and Building occupancy in Sylhet (Shown in a percentage of the buildings floor area)
LCM C2H C3L C3M C3H C4L C4M C4H Concrete S3 S1H Steel BCL BCM BFL BLL Masonry TSL BAL TSL+BAL Total
C1L
LCL
10 2 2 8 1 3 8 27 21 36 4 7 1 1 2 15 13 7 11 3 45 10 2 8 1 2 1 2
53 75 22 74 49 7 20 85 14 53 22 53 25 25 75 32 39 38 37 4 56 71 11 39 72 50 9 52 44
1 3
33 21 77 22 28 44 32 40 7 5 24 27 14 18 24 21 65 41 62 28 88 44 19 65 16 9 44 91 27 48
4 1
2 6 34
4 14 34
27
35 55 4 2 5 28 7 3 1 4 1 9 1 49 32
16
5 6 1 2 3 1 4 11
43 90 96 100 87 98 100 100 53 9 45 96 43 95 96 96 96 69 97 90 13 49 30 99 22 77 88 95 84 87
21
79
100
100
94
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 1 2 27 1
98 99 98 72 100
100 39 7
8 57
10 6 2 1
51 13 7 6
61 99 92 100 100 90 43 100 100 90 100 94 100 98 99 100 100 49 85 100 93 94
52 8 2 0 12 2 0 0 45 59 49 4 40 5 4 2 3 26 3 9 85 51 53 1 63 21 11 5 16 13
89 88 68 98
11 12 32 2
100 89 97 100 84 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 94 78 100 100
11 3 16
6 22
5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 33 6 0 16 0 0 2 0 5 0 1 2 0 17 0 15 2 0 0 1 0
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Appendix
AppendixC:HAZUSinputtingParameters
Table C-1
Dhaka Attenuation Function Bangladesh (Latitude, Longitude) Conversion to HAZUS (Latitude, Longitude) Magnitude (Mw) Depth (km) Width (km) Orientation (Degree) Dip Angle (Degree)
Scenario cases in Dhaka City Corporation Area

Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 WUS Shallow Crustal Event - Non Extensional Epicenter parameters (23.8,91.1) (38.8,-115.9) (23.8,90.4) (38.8,-116.6) 6 8 25 0 90 Case 4
(24.3,90.1) (39.3,-116.9) 7.5 10 42
(23.8,90.5) (38.8,-116.5) 8.5 3 50 10 20
8 3 50 Fault rapture parameters 170 10 45 20
Table C-2
Chittagong Attenuation Function Bangladesh (Latitude, Longitude) Conversion to HAZUS (Latitude, Longitude) Magnitude (Mw) Depth (km) Width (km) Orientation (Degree) Dip Angle (Degree)
Scenario cases in Chittagong City Corporation Area

Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 WUS Shallow Crustal Event - Non Extensional Epicenter parameters (21.1,92.1) (36.1,-114.9) 8.5 17.5 50 165 30 (23.8,91.1) (38.8,-115.9) 8 3 50 Fault rapture parameters 10 20 160 90 45 45 (22.4,91.8) (37.36,-115.18) 6 6 6 (22.4,91.8) (37.36,-115.18) 6 22 10
Table C-3
Chittagong Attenuation Function Bangladesh (Latitude, Longitude) Conversion to HAZUS (Latitude, Longitude) Magnitude (Mw) Depth (km) Width (km) Orientation (Degree) Dip Angle (Degree)
Scenario cases in Sylhet City Corporation Area

Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 Case 5 WUS Shallow Crustal Event - Non Extensional Epicenter parameters
Case 1
(25.1,91.2) (40.1,-115.8) 8 3 43 90 60
(25.7,93.7) (40.7,-113.3) 8.3 3 50 45 30
(24.9,91.87) (39.9,-115.13) 6 7 20 0 90
(25.03,91.2) (40.03,-115.8) 8 3 43 90 60
(24.91,91.2) (39.91,-115.8) 8.5 3 43 90 60
Fault rapture parameters
Appendix
Table C-4 Building damage functions - Capacity Curves (Pre-code) in Dhaka City Corporation Area
Building Type (Survey) Building Type (Input) Sd Yield (inches) Sa Yield (g's) Sd Ultimate (inches) Sa Ultimate (g's)
No.
Kappa/ Short
Duration
Kappa/ Medium
Duration
Kappa/ Long
Duration
Damping
Fraction
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
C3L C3M C3H C4L C4M C4H LCL LCM BCL BCM BFL BLL TSL+BAL
C3L C3M C3H PC2L PC2M PC2H C2L C2M URML URMM RM1L RM2L MH
0.24 0.63 0.73 0.24 0.63 0.73 0.24 0.63 0.24 0.27 0.24 0.24 0.24
0.23 0.14 0.06 0.23 0.14 0.06 0.25 0.13 0.20 0.11 0.20 0.20 0.20
1.64 2.36 4.13 1.64 2.36 4.13 1.29 1.91 2.40 1.81 2.40 2.40 4.32
0.70 0.27 0.14 0.70 0.27 0.14 0.66 0.20 0.40 0.22 0.40 0.40 0.60
0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.50
0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.30
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.10
10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 15
0.50 0.33 0.20 0.50 0.33 0.20 0.50 0.33 0.50 0.33 0.50 0.50 0.50
Table C-5 Building damage functions - Capacity Curves (Pre-code) in Chittagong City Corporation Area
Building Type (Survey) Building Type (Input) Sd Yield (inches) Sa Yield (g's) Sd Ultimate (inches) Sa Ultimate (g's) Kappa/ Short
Duration
No.
Kappa/ Medium
Duration
Kappa/ Long
Duration
Damping
Fraction
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
0.24 0.63 0.74 0.24 0.63 0.74 0.24 0.63 0.24 0.27 0.24 0.24 0.24
0.39 0.15 0.06 0.39 0.15 0.06 0.35 0.14 0.20 0.11 0.20 0.20 0.20
1.55 2.40 4.13 1.55 2.40 4.13 1.17 1.84 2.40 1.81 2.40 2.40 4.32
1.05 0.28 0.14 1.05 0.28 0.14 0.84 0.21 0.40 0.22 0.40 0.40 0.60
0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.50
0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.30
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.10
10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 15
0.50 0.33 0.20 0.50 0.33 0.20 0.50 0.33 0.50 0.33 0.50 0.50 0.50
Appendix
Table C-6 Building damage functions - Capacity Curves (Pre-code) in Sylhet City Corporation Area
Building Type (Survey) Building Type (Input) Sd Yield (inches) Sa Yield (g's) Sd Ultimate (inches) Sa Ultimate (g's)
No.
Kappa/ Short
Duration
Kappa/ Medium
Duration
Kappa/ Long
Duration
Damping
Fraction
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
0.24 0.63 0.73 0.24 0.63 0.73 0.24 0.63 0.24 0.27 0.24 0.24 0.24
0.44 0.15 0.06 0.44 0.15 0.06 0.56 0.15 0.20 0.11 0.20 0.20 0.20
1.54 2.32 4.13 1.54 2.32 4.13 1.01 1.74 2.40 1.81 2.40 2.40 4.32
1.13 0.28 0.14 1.13 0.28 0.14 1.15 0.20 0.40 0.22 0.40 0.40 0.60
0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.50
0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.30
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.10
10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 15
0.50 0.33 0.20 0.50 0.33 0.20 0.50 0.33 0.50 0.33 0.50 0.50 0.50
Table C-7 Building damage functions - Structural Fragility Curves (Pre-code) in Dhaka City Corporation Area
Building Type (Survey) Building Type (Input) Slight Median Slight Beta Moderate Median Moderate Beta Extensive Median Extensive Beta Complete Median Complete Beta
No.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
0.45 0.67 1.04 0.45 0.67 1.04 0.40 0.46 0.32 0.57 0.29 0.29 0.40
1.19 0.90 0.73 1.19 0.90 0.73 1.19 0.90 0.99 0.91 1.07 1.07 1.01
0.82 1.11 2.07 0.82 1.11 2.07 0.83 0.94 0.65 1.02 0.60 0.60 1.00
1.15 0.86 0.74 1.15 0.86 0.74 1.15 0.86 1.05 0.92 1.12 1.12 1.05
1.72 2.28 5.18 1.72 2.28 5.18 1.63 1.87 2.28 3.15 1.90 1.90 3.09
1.16 0.90 0.90 1.16 0.90 0.90 1.16 0.90 1.10 0.87 1.15 1.15 1.07
3.51 4.36 12.10 3.51 4.36 12.10 3.20 3.60 5.66 7.03 5.04 5.04 7.56
0.92 0.96 0.95 0.92 0.96 0.95 0.92 0.96 1.08 0.91 1.13 1.13 1.06
Appendix
Table C-8 Building damage functions - Structural Fragility Curves (Pre-code) in Chittagong City Corporation Area
No.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
0.33 0.57 1.04 0.33 0.57 1.04 0.35 0.48 0.32 0.57 0.29 0.29 0.40
1.19 0.90 0.73 1.19 0.90 0.73 1.19 0.90 0.99 0.91 1.07 1.07 1.01
0.71 1.04 2.07 0.71 1.04 2.07 0.75 0.89 0.65 1.02 0.60 0.60 1.00
1.15 0.86 0.74 1.15 0.86 0.74 1.15 0.86 1.05 0.92 1.12 1.12 1.05
1.51 2.14 5.18 1.51 2.14 5.18 1.58 1.86 2.28 3.15 1.90 1.90 3.09
1.16 0.90 0.90 1.16 0.90 0.90 1.16 0.90 1.10 0.87 1.15 1.15 1.07
3.11 3.99 12.10 3.11 3.99 12.10 3.26 3.79 5.66 7.03 5.04 5.04 7.56
0.92 0.96 0.95 0.92 0.96 0.95 0.92 0.96 1.08 0.91 1.13 1.13 1.06
Table C-9 Building damage functions - Structural Fragility Curves (Pre-code) in Sylhet City Corporation Area
No.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
0.32 0.54 1.04 0.32 0.54 1.04 0.30 0.49 0.32 0.57 0.29 0.29 0.40
1.19 0.90 0.73 1.19 0.90 0.73 1.19 0.90 0.99 0.91 1.07 1.07 1.01
0.68 1.01 2.07 0.68 1.01 2.07 0.69 0.90 0.65 1.02 0.60 0.60 1.00
1.15 0.86 0.74 1.15 0.86 0.74 1.15 0.86 1.05 0.92 1.12 1.12 1.05
1.48 2.09 5.18 1.48 2.09 5.18 1.45 1.85 2.28 3.15 1.90 1.90 3.09
1.16 0.90 0.90 1.16 0.90 0.90 1.16 0.90 1.10 0.87 1.15 1.15 1.07
3.10 3.94 12.10 3.10 3.94 12.10 3.04 3.82 5.66 7.03 5.04 5.04 7.56
0.92 0.96 0.95 0.92 0.96 0.95 0.92 0.96 1.08 0.91 1.13 1.13 1.06
Appendix
Table C-10 Fire Following Earthquake Parameters
Parameters Number of Simulations Total simulation time(min) Time increment(min) Engine speed (mph) Wind speed (mph) Wind direction (degree)
10 10,000 15 15 0 0
Table C-11 Indoor Casualty Rates by Model Building Type for Complete Structural Damage (With Collapse)
Building Type (Survey) C1L C1M C1H LCL LCM C2H C3L C3M C3H C4L C4M C4H BFL BLL BCL BCM TSL+BAL Building Type (Input) C1L C1M C1H C2L C2M C2H C3L C3M C3H PC2L PC2M PC2H RM1L RM2L URML URMM MH Injury Severity 1 (%) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 30 30 30 30 40 Injury Severity 2 (%) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 7 7 7 7 20 Injury Severity 3 (%) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6 6 3 Injury Severity 4 (%) 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 27 27 27 27 5
Table C-12 Demographic Data

Parameters Population ResidDay ResidNight Hotel Visitor WorkingCom WorkingInd Commuting5PM SchoolEnrollmentKto12 SchoolEnrollmentCollege Inputting Data Population in night time RES 1 - RES6 in daytime RES 1 - RES6 in night time RES 4 in night time 0 COM1- COM10 in daytime IND1- IND6 in daytime 0.04(default parameter)*Population EDU1 in daytime EDU2 in daytime

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Risk Assessment

Risk Assessment of Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet City Corporation Area

Risk Assessment 6.4EconomicLoss 6.4.1BuildingLosses 6.4.2TransportationandUtilityLosses

636 636 638

APPENDIX AppendixA:RegionalPopulationandBuildingValueData AppendixB:CorrelationMatrixinuse AppendixC:HAZUSinputtingParameters

Risk Assessment Table Page

65 66 67 68 69 610 611 612

613 614 615 616 617

Figure 1-1 Flowchart of HAZUS Earthquake Risk Assessment Methodology

Figure 2-1 The distribution of buildings in 3 cities

Table 3-2 Utility System Inventory of Dhaka City Corporation Area

Table 3-4 Utility System Inventory of Chittagong City Corporation Area

Table 3-6 Utility System Inventory of Sylhet City Corporation Area

OYO: Liquefaction Susceptibility

Liquefaction Susceptibility defined in Cluster

Forthelandslideanalysisandevaluation,therearethreemainstepsbythefollowing: Step1:Preparationwork Inordertoexamineslopeangleintheareas,100metersspacingofspotheightiscollectedby ADPC.Figure43showsthespotheightdistributionineachcity.

Step2:SlopeAnalysis Slopeidentifiesthemaximumrateofchangeinvaluefromeachcelltoitsneighbors.Anoutput sloperastercanbecalculatedasdegreeofslope.

dz dz Degreeslope= TAN 1 + x57.29578 dx dy

Risk Assessment landslidesusceptibilitiesisalsoadoptedbaseonclustersystemineachcitycorporation.Figure46 showsthelandslidesusceptibilitiesineachcitycorporation.

Figure 4-6 Landslide Susceptibilities in each City Corporation

Landslide Susceptibilities (Wet Condition) Landslide Susceptibilities (Dry Condition)

Figure 4-6 Landslide Susceptibilities in each City Corporation (Contd)

Figure 5-5 Earthquake Fault Zones

Mw 7.5 8.0 6.0 8.5

23.8 22.4 22.4

91.1 91.8 91.8

8.0 6.0 6.0

Reverse Reverse Reverse

Case 1: Mw = 7.5 Madhupur Fault (MF)

Case 2: Mw = 8.0 Plate Boundary Fault-2 (PBF-2)

OYO: Peak Ground Acceleration (gal)

HAZUS: Peak Ground Acceleration (gal)

Case 3: Mw = 6.0 Underneath City

OYO: Spectral Acceleration (gal) at T=0.3 s

HAZUS: Spectral Acceleration (gal) at T=0.3 s

Case 1: Mw = 7.5 Madhupur Fault (MF)

Case 2: Mw = 8.0 Plate Boundary Fault-2 (PBF-2)

Case 3: Mw = 6.0 Underneath City

OYO: Spectral Acceleration (gal) at T=0.3 s

HAZUS: Spectral Acceleration (gal) at T=0.3 s

OYO: Spectral Acceleration (gal) at T=1.0 s

HAZUS: Spectral Acceleration (gal) at T=1.0 s

Case 1: Mw = 7.5 Madhupur Fault (MF)

OYO: Spectral Acceleration (gal) at T=1.0 s

HAZUS: Spectral Acceleration (gal) at T=1.0 s

Case 2: Mw = 8.0 Plate Boundary Fault-2 (PBF-2)

Case 3: Mw = 6.0 Underneath City

OYO: Peak Ground Acceleration (gal)

HAZUS: Peak Ground Acceleration (gal)

Case 1: Mw = 8.5 Plate Boundary Fault-1 (PBF-1)

Case 2: Mw = 8.0 Plate Boundary Fault-2 (PBF-2)

OYO: Peak Ground Acceleration (gal)

HAZUS: Peak Ground Acceleration (gal)

Case 3: Mw = 6.0 Underneath City

Case 4: 10% PE in 50 Years

OYO: Spectral Acceleration (gal) at T=0.3 s

HAZUS: Spectral Acceleration (gal) at T=0.3 s

Case 1: Mw = 8.5 Plate Boundary Fault-1 (PBF-1)

Case 2: Mw = 8.0 Plate Boundary Fault-2 (PBF2)

Case 3: Mw = 6.0 Underneath City

OYO: Spectral Acceleration (gal) at T=0.3 s

HAZUS: Spectral Acceleration (gal) at T=0.3 s

Case 4: 10% PE in 50 Years