ANALYSIS OF INTENSIFICATION OPPORTUNITIES IN THE CITY OF BRANTFORD

Final Report Prepared for:

BE-nu
HEMSON
Consulting Ltd.

February 2012

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION

............................................................................ 1

A . PurposeofthisReport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I B . Types of Intensification Considered . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 C . How the Analysis Was Prepared . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

A . The Intensification Analysis Is Being Prepared in a New Policy Context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 B . The City of Brantford Is Planning to Implement Provincial Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 C . Provincial and City Policies Establish the Framework for Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Ill ANALYSIS OF INTENSIFICATION OPPORTUNITIES A B. C. D. IV

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12 14 15 19

Approach to Estimating Intensification Opportunities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Urban Growth Centre . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . lntenslficat~on Brownfields and Other Sites of Interest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

CONCLUSIONS AND STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS

...................................................

A . City Can Comfortably Achieve the Growth Plan Intensification Target . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 B. Density Is below Growth Plan Targets for the UGC and Greenfield Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 C . Three Strategic Directions Are Recommended . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 APPENDIX: Detailed Results and Mapping

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INTRODUCTION

The City of Brandord is preparing anintensificationstrategy as an update to its official plan and to come fully into conformity with the 2006 Growth Planfor the Greater Golden Horseshoe (the Growth Plan). The strategy is being prepared through a four-phase study process: In Phase 1, background research was undertaken to identify lands in thecity withintensificationpotential, recent trends in development and key issues related to intensification. Phase 1 was completed by City staff in September 2011. Phase 2 -.data analysis - was initiated shortly thereafter. The key objective of Phase 2 is to assess the City's capacity to achieve the intensification targets and policies in the Growth Plan; In Phase 3, informed by the results of Phase 2, a series of intensification scenarios is to be developed in consultation with the public, City planning staff and other stakeholders; and In Phase 4, the results of the analysis and stakeholder consultation will be translated into the intensification strategy and recommended official plan policies, zoning by-law regulations and urban design guidelines.

A.

PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT

The purpose of this report is to summarize the results of the Phase 2 analysis. In particular, conclusions are provided on the City's ability to achieve the Growth Plan policies and targetsfor intensification within the built-up area. Whilenot a specific focus of the assignment, the potential to achieve a higher density of development in the designated greenfield areas has also been assessed. The Phase 2 analysis is high-level in nature. It is intended to address the issue of the City's capacity to accommodate intensification with regard to: the growth outlook, the land supply within designated growth areas, the market potential for intensification and other challenges and opportunities to implementation. Basedon theresults,strategicdirectionsare recommended for consideration as part of the City's overall approach to intensification and, ultimately, the preparation of the strategy itself.
B.

N P E S OF INTENSIFICATION CONSIDERED

The intensification strategy is being prepared for all urban lands within the City of Brantford. Accordingly,the analysis considers three types of intensification:

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Residential intensification within the 'Oouilt-up area", including identified intensification areas and corridors and around the existing transit station; Residential andemployment intensification within the Downtown Area (the Urban Growth Centre); and As noted above, the potential for higher densities in the designated greenfield areas. The "built-up area" refers to the developed urban area encompassed by the "built boundary" as identified by the Province in 2008.' The "designated greenfield area" refers to lands not currently urbanized but designated for future development outside the built boundary. The Urban Growth Centre (UGC) is an area identified conceptually by the Province as a focus for intensification and delineated inmore detail by the City of Brantford. The Growth Phmandated areas are illustrated on the map on the following page. Only the residential greenfield areas that have been identified by the City in its official plan are shown. There are additional greenfield employment areas in the City which are not explicitly shown in its official plan but are included in the greenfield density analysis.

C H O W THE ANALYSIS WAS PREPARED .

The analysis was prepared in three steps: First, Provincial and City planning policies were reviewed to establish the framework for the analysis, including the growth outlook and geographicfocus for intensification; Second, the potential to accommodate intensification in the City was identified, including residential and employment intensification potential within the builtup area and greenfield areas; and Finally, the supply potential was compared to the growth outlook and conclusions reached on the City's ability to accommodate intensificationand achieve the policies and targets of the Growth Plan. Consistent with the steps in the analysis, the remainder of this report is organized into three chapters. The next chapter describes the results of the planning policy review and framework for analysis. This is followed by a chapter that summarizes the analysis and resulting estimates of the City's intensification potential: details and associated mapping are provided in the Appendix to the report. The final chapter compares supply and demand and sets out the conclusions and strategic recommendations.

'For details, see Sire and Location of Urban Growth Centres in the GreaterGolden Horseshoe, Ministry of Energy and

Infrastructure,2008.

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CITY OF BRANTFORD GROWTH PLAN- MANDATED AREAS

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II

PLANNING POLICY REVIEW

This chapter provides a review of the planning policies that affect intensification in the City of Brantford, in particular Provincial policies and the City's Growth Plan amendment: Official Plan Amendment 125 (OPA 125). The planning . policy review is used to establish the framework and a set of principles to guide the analysis.

1.

Growth Plan Sets Out the Forecasts to Be Used for Long-Range Planning

The Growth Plan contains a set of population and employment allocations that municipalities in the GGH must use for long-rangeplanning and managing growth. The forecasts are set out in Schedule 3 of the Growth P h Over the period to 2031, growth is forecast to be concentrated mainly in the Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton (GTAH) where most of the population and employment is already accommodated. Approximately 25% .. of population growth and 20% of employment growth to 2031 have been allocated tothe OuterRingl,which includes the County of Brant and the City of Brantford. Since the adoption of the Growth Plan, and in consultation with the Province, it has now been determined that the City of Brantford should plan for a total population of 126,000 and 53,000 jobs in 2031. As shown in Table 1 below, the Growth Plan forecasts represent growth of appmximately 28,000 people and 8,000 jobs from 2011 to 2031. Population growthover this period translates into approximately 13,000 occupied private dwelling units (households).

A.

THE INTENSIFICATION ANALYSIS IS BEING PREPARED I N A NEW POLICY CONTEXT

On June 16, 2006, the Province of Ontario adopted the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (Growth Plan). The Growth Plan sets out a vision for growth in the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) to 2031, including a set of longrange growth forecasts and direction on how that growth should be accommodated. The Growth Plan has significant implications for planning in the City of Brantford, particularly as it relates to population and employment growth as well as the Growth Plan-related density and intensification targets. The City's approach to planning, and to intensification, must reflect andsupport this Provincial planning policy environment.

' The Outer Ring is defined in the Growth Plan as a geographicarea containinguarious single- or upper-tier municipalities in the GGH beyond the GTAH.

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Table 1 Historic and Forecast Population, Households and Employment, City of Brantford Census Year 2006 201 1 201 6 2021 2031 Growth 201 1-2031 Source: Total Population 94,000 98,000 106,000 112,000 126,000 28,000 Households 35,600 37,500 40,800 43,900 50,400 12,900 Employment 44,000 45,000 47,000 49,000 53,000 8,000

The Growth Plan encourages intensification throughout the built-up area (Section 2.2.3) and identifies a set of Urban Growth Centres (UGCs) which are to be a focus for higherdensity housing and employment, including an U G C in the City of Brantford (Section 2.2.4). The Growth Plan also directs municipalities to designate other areas as a focus for intensification including Major Transit Statton Areas and intensification Corridors (Section 2.2.5). Three sets of Growth Plan policies are of particular relevance to the analysis presented in this report as they set out specific quantitative measures of how municipalities must plan to accommodate future growth. The policies are: a) A minimum proportion of future growth that is to be accommodated through intensification; A minimum density of development to be planned for designated greenfield areas; and

Population and household figures are from the City of Brantford 2009 Development Charges (DO Background Study, with the exception o the 201 1 figures which are f from the 201 1 Census. Households are private occupied f dwellings based on the 201 1 Census and the forecast o total households shown in the 2009 DC study. Population figures include a 4% Census undercount consistent with the Growth Plan and the City's official plan forecasts. 2031 employment is the Growth Plan forecast. 2011 employment and figures for intervening years are drawn from the forecast models maintained by Hemson.

b)

c)

A minimum density for planned development in the

designated UGCs;

2.

Growth Plan Also Provides Direction on How Crowth Is to Be Accommodated

These three policies, or rules, provide the "envelope" in which planning for growth must occur. The first rule relates t o intensification and states that:
By the year 2015 and for each year thereafter, a minimum of 40% of all residential development occurring annually within [the Cityof Brantford] will be within the built-up area (2.2.3.1).

In addition to setting out the forecasts, the Growth Plan also provides direction on how growth should be accommodated. Generally, theGrowthPlanseeks toshift the more traditional patten of suburban development to more compact and denser urban forms and to generally restrict rural-type development outside of settlement areas.

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This first rule provides direction on the proportion of new residential development to occur within the built-up area (i.e. intensification) and refers to a total number ofunits, not density. For the purposes of the 40% rule, the Growth Plan defines intensification to include all forms of residential development including low-density development such as single and semi-detached units! The second rule relates to the density of greenfield development and states thae:
The designated greenfield area of each upper- or single-tiermunicipality will be planned to achieve a minimum density target that is not less than 50 residents and jobs combined per hectare (2.2.7.2).

3.

Protecting Employment Areas Is Also a Priority

In addition to the three quantitative targets, the GrowthPlan also seeks to preserve existing employment areas and reduce pressures for conversion of lands within employment areas to non-employment uses: Overall, the Growth Plan places a strong emphasis on economic development and sets out strict criteria regarding the conversion of lands within employment areas to non-employment uses. (Section 2.2.5); and For the purposes of the conversion tests, under the Growth Plan maior retail uses are not considered employment uses.Although these uses still generate jobs, for the long-range planning purposes of Section 2.2.6.5 of the Growth Plan, they are excluded. The Growth Plan policies have been further reinforced through recent amendments to the Planning Actthrough "Bill 51" in 2006, which strengthens che municipality's ability to refuse applications to convert employment land by removing the private applicant's ability to appeal such applications to the Ontario Municipal Board. The Growth Plan employment land policies are relevant for this study because a fair amount of intensification occurs through the redevelopment of older industrial lands - or employment areas -typically in the form of higher-density residential or major retail development. Both types of uses arediscouraged in employment areas under theGrowth Plan, with the result that municipalities must direct them to other areas within the community.

This rule provides direction on the amount of greenfield urban lands that are designated to accommodate growth. More intensive forms of developmentin greenfield areas will contribute to achieving the minimum density target, but do not count towards the Growth Plan's 40% rule. The third and final rule relates to the future density of the City of Brandord's UGC, which must be planned to achieve a minimum of 150 residents and jobs combined per ha. The UGC density target is in addition to the target for the number of units to be accommodated within the built boundary under the 40%rule.

This approach differs from the more typical definition of intensificationwhich relates more to the developmentofmedium- and higher-density urban forms dun a share of new uniu by location.

'

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Generally, the Growth Planseeks to achieve a more compact urban form andidentifies specific targets that must be met in order to achieve this policy objective. Although the Growth Plan encourages intensification generally throughout the built-up area, it is important to note that it does not require that intensification be accommodated in $1 locations. The Growth Plan identifies specific locations, notably the UGCs, and directs municipalities to designate additional areas and corridors as a focus for intensification in their official plans, including areas around major transit stations. As a single-tier municipality within the GGH, the City of Brantford is responsible for planning to achieve the overall Growth Plan policies and numerical targets!

While the background studies for OPA 125 were completed prior to the adoption of the Growth Plan in 2006, the OPA 125work was undertaken with knowledge of the Growth Plan and its key policy directions. Modifications were also made to OPA 125 by the Province to ensure its policy framework conforms to the Growth Plan. To this end, OPA 125 amends the official plan by adding a new section: Section 15-Grwth Management, which sets out policies for: The Built Boundary, the area within which is intended to accommodate 40% of new residential development by 2015 and for each year thereafter (Section 15.2); The UGC, which is intended to achieve a minimum gross density of 150 residents and jobs combined per ha by 2031 (Section 153) and the Downtown, which is within the UGC and is to be promoted as a location for revitalization and the expansion of the post-secondary campus (Section 6.2.4); Greenfield Areas, which are intended to achieve a minimum gross density of 50 residents and jobs combined per ha (Section 15.4); Intensificationcorridor Areas, whichhave potential to provide for increased residential and employment densities and mixed-use development (Section 15.5); and The area surrounding the City's Major Transit Station, which is also identified as afocus for increased densities (Section 15.7).

B.

THE CITY O F BRANTFORD IS PLANNING T O IMPLEMENT PROVINCIAL POLICIES

The City of Brantford recently completed a five-year review of its official plan. The findings were incorporated into Official Plan Amendment (OPA) 125,which was adopted by City Council on May 28,2007, approved by the Province in December 2008, and receivedfinal Ontario Municipal Board (OMB) settlement approval in December 2010.

' This is unlike some lower-tier municipalities, where the

specificintensificationand density targets are set part of a region-wide planning analysis.
the upper tier as

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OPA 125 further amends the official plan by adding policies intended to encourage the revitalization,redevelopment and reuse of underutilized areas, including brownfields (Section 6.2.13.1), Regeneration Areas (Section 15.6), and Community Improvement areas (Section 16).Thesepolicies are also consistent with the overall planning principles and objectives of the Growth Plan. Finally, in regards to employment areas, OPA 125 also adds an objective to plan to protect and preserve employment areas for current and future uses (Section 6.2.5.1) and to only permit the conversion of lands within designated employment areas to non-employment uses though a municipal comprehensive review (Section 15.1.6). These policies are in accordance with the Growth Plan. The City's designated employment areas, however, are not defined in OPA 125 nor is the term "non-employment use". This policy condition is of relevance because some sites located within the City's Intensification Corridor Areas are designated industrial (i.e. employment) but have been identified as having potential for mixed-use development, including increasedresidentialandemployment densities,= part of the growth management policies of OPA 125.

For the purposes of this analysis, a mix of residential and employment is anticipated for the majority of siteswithinthe Intensification Corridor Areas, whether or not they are currently permitted. Again, this approach is taken as part of a high-level analysis to determine the City's capacity to accommodate the intensification targets and policies of the Growth Plan. It should not be construed as recommending changes in land use designations. Potential changes in land use designations for specific sites will be considered in Phases 3 and 4 of the study, through the preparation of intensification directions and further public consultation. However, for sites which are designated for industrial uses, the potential for their utilization with nonindustrial uses will be reviewed as part of the City's forthcoming Official Plan Review.

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C.

PROVINCIAL AND CITY POLICIES ESTABLISH THE FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS

The Provincial and City policies reviewed in the previous section allow for the establishment of a framework for the analysis, in particular the number of units that will need to be accommodated through intensification in the built-up area and their geographic focus. Based on this framework, a set of planning principles has been developed to guide the intensification analysis.

Table 2 Residential Units to B Accommodated though e lntensification within the Built Boundary City of Branlford, 2015 to 2031 Census Year
2006 201 1 201 6 2021 2031

Historic and Forecast Household Cmwth

35,600 37,500 40,800 43,900 50,400 9,600 3,800
-.-... -.-..o

1.

City Will Need to Accommodate 3,800 New Housing Units within the Built-Up Area

Total Unit Growth 201 5 to 2031

40% o Total Units f

From a demand perspective, in order to implement the Growth Plan and the OPA 125 40% intensification target within the built boundary, approximately 3,800 new housing units will need to be accommodated. The estimate of the number of units required is summarized in Table 2. It is important to note that, under the Growth Plan, only intensification that occurs within the built-up area is to be counted toward the achievement of the intensification target. More intensive development in the City's designated greenfield areas is not counted towards achieving the 40% rule though it may take a compact urban form. It is also important to reiterate that, although the Growth Plan and OPA 125 encourage intensification generally throughout the built-up area, neither requires that intensification be accommodated in all locations.

- ?

-,

-,

. .-...- -..

--.-- - - -

ChargesBackgroundStudyand201 1 Census. ~ouskholds are private occupied dwellings.

2.

Five Planning Principles Are Used to Identify lntensification Opportunities

In light of the above, and taking into account the broad locational and land use planning objectives of both the City and the Province, the following five principles are used to guide the identification of intensification opportunities:

1.

The geographic focus of intensification should be on

the areas identified for intensification in the Growth

Plan and OPA 125, notably the UGC and the

Intensification Corridor Areas;

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2.

In general, stable low-density residential areas should not be a focus for intensification; however, where local circumstances warrant, sensitive integration of smallscale infill development may be appropriate; Designated employment areas should generally not be a focus for residential intensification, consistent with Growth Plan directions to minimize the conversion of lands within such areas to non-employment uses. For the purposes of this analysis, however, a mix of residential andemployment is assumedfor some sites in the Intensification Corridor Areas, including those designated for industrial use. It is anticipated that the specific site assumptions may be refined in later phases of the intensification strategy and within thecontext of the results of the forthcoming Official Plan Review.

3.

Intensification Opportunities Are Further Categorized into Three Time Periods

3.

As aframeworkfor identifying the amountand likely market timing of intensification opportunities, they are further categorized into three sub-groups that have the following characteristics: Short.term Opportunities (2011 to 2021)- sites of known development interest or sites that are large, well-located and vacant or occupied with very old vacant buildings; Mid-Term O - -~ o r t u n i t i(2021to 2031)-olderretail ~ es strip development, small lot quasi-residentialand retail strip development, older parking lots of reasonable size and vacant sites that do not meet current project feasibility thresholds; and Long-Term Opportunities (2031+) -intensification opportunities that are not anticipated to be realized within the life of the plan to 203 1, including new retail development, especially new large-format retail, new or stableresidentialneighbourhoods,and institutionaland health care facilities such as long-term care facilities, churches and seniors' residences. Excluded from the analysis are parcels for which there is no reasonable expectation of redevelopment as indicated by City staff. Such parcels include cemeteries, municipal parks and monuments, utilities and sites with significant topographical constraints.

4.

Generally, intensification in the form of medium and higher-density mixed use development should be encouraged as part of the development of complete communities, and should be broadly compatible with surrounding areas; and The identified intensificationopportunities shouldhave a reasonable market prospect of being realized over the planning period to 2031.

5.

Through the adoption of the Growth Plan, the Province has taken a much more direct role in growth management in southern Ontario, including the City of Brantford. The Growth Plan not only sets out the forecasts to be used for long-range planning but also clear direction on how that growth is to be accommodated, including a series of numeric targets that must be met. The City of Brantford has implemented the new Provincial policies in OPA 125, including the Growth Plan-mandated intensificationanddensitytargets and areadelineationssuch as the UGC and intensification corridors. Taken together, the new Provincial and City policies allow for the establishment of a framework and set of principles that is used to guide the analysis of intensification opportunities which is discussed in the next chapter.

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Ill ANALYSIS O F I N T E N S I F I C A T I O N O P P O R T U N I T I E S

This chapter summarizes the results of the analysis of intensification opportunities, focussing on the potential for intensification within the built-up area in accodance with the Growth Plan definition. The issue of greenfield density is addressed separately in the next chapter. The focus of the analysis is on land supply, in particular the specificparcels where intensification could potentiallyoccur. The question of market demand is addressed, but to a lesser degree, given Growth Planrequirements.While planning has always been a balance between policy goals and market forces, the Growth Plan has taken a much more ambitious approach to further shifting developmentpatterns away from traditional suburban forms. For most municipalities in the GGH, implementing the Growth Plan targets necessarily means planning to achieve a shift in housing and employment land market patterns, and in particular a shift from single-detached to higher-density rowhouse and apartment units. Past market trends are of interest to understand the scale and nature of the shifts required, but are not of material relevance for the purposes of Growth Plan conformity.

A.

APPROACH TO ESTIMATING INTENSIFICATION OPPORTUNITIES

The intensification opportunities are estimated using a combination of site analysis, field work and input from City staff and other consulting team members. It should be noted again that the estimates are high-level and prepared for the purposes of determining the City's capacity to achieve the GrowthPlanpoliciesand intensification targets. To this end, the following approach is taken.

1.

Existing Residential Development Permissions Are Maintained

For sites with existing low-, medium- or high-density residential officialplan designations,the specified unit per ha rates are applied.' This approach is considered reasonable for the purposes of the capacity analysis. It also recognizes that the City has already taken into account the potential for medium- or higher-density development in these locations, including those identified in OPA 125. The potential for intensification through second units, or accessory units, is not included in the estimate.

The rates are 30, 60 and 200 units per net ha for low-, medium- and high-density development respectively (Section 7.2).

'

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2.

Potential For Majority of Other Sites I s Based on a Typical Mixed-Use Development

The intensification for most of the sites within the builtboundary is estimated according to the densities typical for a standard mixed-used development: For most sites within the corridor areas, a density of 75 units and 50 employees per net ha is applied reflecting the density of a typical 4-storey, 10,000 m2 building with retail at grade and surface parking; and For most sites within the UGC, a higher density is applied: I25 units and 50 employees per net ha, the density of a typical 6-storey, 15,000 m2 building with retail at grade and surface parking.
3.
Special Density Assumptions Are Applied in a Small Number of Cases

A density of 150 units per ha is applied to these sites, reflecting a greater development potential. The potential for employment is based on an estimate of retail space likely to be provided on the site frontage lands at a rate of 40 m2per employee. For other sites in the City, only employment intensification is assumed. These include: Vacant commercial sites that, according to City staff, are expected to develop with pure retail uses. A density of approximately 60 employees per net ha is applied to thesesites, which isbasedon retail development at 25% building coverage and 40 m2per employee; and Vacant industrial sites that are still considered to be competitive for industrial use based on their location and transportation access. Some of these sites include those north of Henry Street in the Braneida Industrial Area and those near the intersection of Highway 403 and West Street. A density of 40 employees per net ha is applied to these sites, consistent with a standard industrial-type development. Details on the densities used to estimate the intensification ~otential, well as the site-by-siteresults for each area, are as provided in the Appendix to this report. The results are summarized in the following sections, beginning with the UGC. This is followed by a summary of the results for the intensificationareas and corridors, and brownfields and other parcels of interest.

For some sites, special density assumptionsare applied. These include sites considered to have the potential for more comprehensive mixed-use development, such as: The two large sites in the southem UGC, south of Icomm Drive and West of Market Street; A large vacant site on the south side of Lynden Road, east of the Lynden Park Mall; and The site of the former Canadian Tire facility on the south side of Colbome Street East.

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B.

URBAN GROWTH CENTRE

Summary of Intensification Opportunities The Urban Growth Centre Parcel Characteristics Short-Term (2011 to 2021) Mid-Term (2021 to 2031) Total Housing Potential Short-Term Mid-Term Total Employment Source:

Table 3

In terms of physical characteristics and intensification opportunities, there are two main sections to the UGC : The historic downtown core and an established residential neighbourhood to the north, characterized by a large number of relatively small sites, some vacant parcels and older buildings; and The area south of Colbome Street, which is characterized by a smaller number of largeparcels, with some vacant and/or under-utilized sites as well as extensive areas of surface parking. The downtown core has a high potential for intensification as a result of the historic appeal of many locations, access to bus and rail-based transit, and the presence of postsecondary educational facilities, notably Wilfrid Laurier University which is planning a significant expansion. The southern portion of the UGC also has a high potential for intensification as a result of a small number of larger parcels that are vacant and/or occupied with under-utilized buildings and of sufficient size to potentially accommodate multi-building and multi-use redevelopment. As shown in Table 3 over, there is a total potential for approximately 4,890 units and 1,660 jobs in the City's UGC.

Land Area
33 ha 17 ha 50 ha

Units
3,470 1,430 4,890 1,660 jobs

Hemson Consulting Ltd., 201 1. Detailed results are provided in the Appendix to this report.

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C.

INTENSIFICATION AREAS

King George Road

The City of Brantford has identified 10 intensification corridors generally focussed along the major arterial roads. A range of intensification opportunities has been identified in these areas, including stand-alone sites and strips of smallerlot development that, over time and with appropriate land assembly, could intensify. The opportunities are summarized in the sections below, organized into the north, central and southern areas of the community.

Both sides of Kine George Road from Powerline Road to - St. Paul Avenue are characterized by predominately largescale retail and hiehwavcommercial strip development,both north and south-of Highway 403, including aome larger vacant parcels that could accommodate sizeable higherdensitydevelopment. Ofparticular interestis thenowvacant site of a former General Motors car dealership and site to the south, which together represent a sizeable and short-term opportunity for intensification.
Lynden Road

1.

North Brantford

The north Brantford intensification areas include: Wayne Gretzky Parkway, KingGeorgeRoad,LyndenRoad and West Street. These areas tend to be more suburban in nature, typically characterized by larger building setbacks and areas of surface parking, frequent curb-cuts and a relatively lowdensity mix of commercial and residential uses that often back-lot onto open space.
Wayne Cretzky Parkway

Both sides of Lynden Road, generally from the Wayne Gretzky Parkway intersection east to Roy Boulevard are characterized by relatively new commercial strip retail uses as well as the Lynden Park Mall at the intersection with Highway 403. There are also some older apartment buildings at the eastern limit of the corridor. There are two under-utilized parcels abutting the Lynden Park Mall, one to the east and one to the south, both of which could accommodate new mixed-use development. There is also a large vacant site on the south side of Lynden Road, east of the Lynden Park Mall, which also has good intensification potential. As noted, this is one of the sites to which a special density assumption has been applied. It is, however, located adjacent to one of the City's major industrial areas -the Braneida Industrial Area- with the result that care would need to be taken to appropriately buffer the employment uses to the south.

The corridor includes the west side of Wayne Gretzky Parkway, which is characterizedbyrelatively new residential development, as well as institutional development such as churches and long-term care facilities and some retail. There are two vacant sites in the corridor north of Lynden Road, including one that is currently outside of the built-up area. The area around the interchange with Lynden Road is characterized mainly by retail uses.

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West Street West Street, generally from its intersection with Lynden Road south to Durham Street, is characterized by wide range and mix of uses: On the east side of West Street to Charing Cross Street there is a range of intensification opportunities, including the potential to assemble a significant parcel in the vicinity of the Bell City Foundryfacility, an older industrial use; and South of Charing Cross Street on both sides of West Street presents mainly smaller-scale opportunities for intensification, with the exception of one larger site at the south east corner of West and Harris Streets which is occupied with a mix of older commercial uses and surface parking areas. As shown in Table 4, there is an estimated potential for approximately 3,450 units and 3,170 jobs in the north Brantford intensification corridors. Although a mix of residential uses has been identified for the Lynden Road corridor, one of the key issues that will need to be addressed in this location is the proximity of many parcels to a major industrial area. Care would need to be taken to appropriately buffer the employment uses to the southand north, as may be the case. Summary of lntensification Opportunities North Brantford lntensification Areas Parcel Characteristics Short-Term (2011 to 2021) Mid-Term (2021 to 2031) Total Housing Potential Short-Term Mid-Term Total Employment Source:

Table 4

Land Area 39 ha 23 ha 62 ha Units 1,900 1,550 3,450 3,170 jobs

Hemson Consulting Ltd., 201 1. Detailed results are provided in the Appendix to this report.

2.

Central Rrantfnrd

The intensification areas in central Brantford include St. Paul Avenue, Charine Cross Smet and Henw Street. Generally, these areas are characterized by older, already mixed-use development, with the exception of Henry Street which is largely industrial and commercial in nature. Generally, the intensification potential in central Brantford , , . is more 7 . . 1 tnan ~nnortn arantrora. llmltea ,

HEMSON

St. Paul Avenue The corridor is characterized by a pattern of small lot, older residential and commercial strip retail uses. There is a large parcel south of Charing Cross Street, which is occupied by a Home Hardware store and an extensive surface parking area, which could accommodate mixed-use development.St. Paul Avenue is also the location of Brantford General Hospital and associated uses, which presents the opportunity for intensification associated with the health care cluster; Charing Cross Street Charing Cross Street is characterized by small-lot quasiresidential and retail development, including a number of homes that have been converted to commercial uses. The potential for intensification in this area is largely considered to be beyond 2021 given the need for property assembly to accommodate redevelopment. Henry Street The Henry Street corridor area is characterized mainly by employment uses and contains a number of short-term opportunities for employment intensification, including two large vacant commercial sites at the intersection of Wayne Gretzky Parkway. The potential for residential andmixed-use intensification is generally limited to the areas west of Wayne Gretzky Parkway and south of Henry Street. Summary of lntensification Opportunities Central Brantford Intensification Areas Parcel Characteristics Short-Term (201 1 to 2021) Mid-Term (2021 to 2031) Total Housing Potential Short-Term Mid-Term Total Employment Source:

Table 5

Land Area
20 ha 24 ha 44 ha

Units

80 2,100 2,180 1,800 jobs

Hemson Consulting Ltd., 2011. Detailed results are provided in the Appendix to this report.

3.

South Brantford

The final grouping of intensification areas is in south Brantford and includes Erie Avenue, Colbome Street East and Colbome Street West. As with the central Brantford intensification areas, generally these areas are characterized by a pattern of older already mixed-use development, with the exception of Colbome Street East, which is more highway commercial in nature. South Brantford also contains one of the City's most prominent intensification opportunities: the site of the former Canadian Tire facility on Colboume Street East.

As shown in Table 5 over, there is a total potential for

approximately 2,180 units and 1,800 jobs in the central Brantford intensification corridors.

HEMSON

Erie Avenue Erie Avenue is occupied mainly by stable, low-density residential uses. There is some potential for intensification north of Cayuga Street where the pattern of development shifts to include some older andunder-utilized parcels. Closer proximity to the Veteran's Memorial Highway also suggats a greater potential for intensification. The introduction of second or accessory dwelling units may be the predominant form of intensification in the corridor. This potential, however, has not been included in the estimate. Colbourne Street West The Colborne Street West corridor, like other central Brantford corridors, is characterized by small-lot, older residential and commercial strip retail uses. A t the southern boundary of the area there are intensification opportunities associated with some older industrial and retail uses. There are also some vacant and under-utilized parcels elsewhere in the corridor where mixed-use redevelopment could be anticipated to occur over time. Colborne Street East Colbome Street East area contains a number of relatively large sites which could accommodate intensification though mixed-use redevelopment, in particularthe site of the former Canadian Tire facility on the south side of the corridor between Brett and Iroquois Streets.

The Canadian Tire site is approximately 4 ha (10 acres) in size and has a strong potential for intensification. The size, visibility and transportation access enjoyed by the parcel suggests that a substantial stand-alone mixed-use redevelopment could be accommodated. For the purposes of this analysis, a mix of residential and commercial uses has been assumed; however, the specific types of development are likely to be refined through later stages of the study. As shown in Table 6 below, there is a total potential for approximately 1,955 units and 725 jobs in the south Brantford intensification corridors.

Table 6 Summary of Intensification Opportunities South Brantford Intensification Areas Parcel Characteristics Short-Term (201 1 to 2021) Mid-Term (2021 to 2031) Total Housing Potential Short-Term Mid-Term Total Employment Source: Land Area 5 ha
1 ha 4 19 ha

Units
71 5 1,240

1,955 725 jobs

Hemson Consulting Ltd., 201 1. Detailed results are provided in the Appendix to this report.

HEMSON

D.

BROWNFIELDS AND OTHER SITES OF INTEREST

In addition to brownfields, there are some other sites of interest within the built-up area that may have the potential for intensification. These sites include: Vacant parcels within the City's older industrial areas, primarily in southern Brantford. These parcels are not consideredsuitable for intensification, particularly retail or residential development, because of the potential for landuseconflicts andemployment areade-stabilization. This position may be reconsidered, however, in the forthcoming Official Plan Review. Small, scattered vacant sites within existing residential communities. These sites are considered suitable for small-scale residential infill at densities in keeping with their current land use designation and surrounding lowdensity neighbourhoods; and Other sites designated for more intensive uses through OPA 125, but not within the identified intensification areas. These sites are suitable for intensification at the specific unit per ha rates. As shown in Table 8 below, there is a total potential for approximately 4,400 units and 120 jobs within the City's brownfields and other sites of interest within the built-up area.

In addition to the identified intensification areas, the City has identified a number of brownfield sites1 that may have potential for intensification. The City. identified brownfields are shown in Table 7 below.

Table 7 Potential Intensification Opportunities City of Brantford Brownfields, in Hectares (ha) City-Identified Brownfields
347 Greenwich Street 66 Mohawk Street 22 Mohawk Street 22 Syndenham Street 17 Syndenham Street 205 Greenwich Street 232 Grand River Avenue 143-161 Wellington Street 23-33 Mohawk Street

Short-Term to 2021
11 6 3 2 2

Mid-Term
2021 to 2031 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 0.6 0.2
28

Total to 2031 Source:

Hemson Consulting Ltd. 2011 based on information provided by the City of Brantford.

Defined as undeveloped or previously developed properties that may be contaminated. They are usually, but not exclusiuely, former industrial or commercial properties that may be underutilized, derelict or vacant (Provincial Policy Statement, 2005).

'

HEMSON

Table 8 Summary of Intensification Opportunities Brownfields and Other Sites of Interest Parcel Characteristics Short-Term (2011 to 2021) Mid-Term (2021 to 2031) Total Housing Potential Short-Term Mid-Term Total Employment Source: Land Area 28 ha
96 ha

As noted, some changes to the planning status of specific sites may be required to stimulate the intensification process. While market forces will ultimately determine when and where intensification occurs, the City does have the ability and tools to assist intensification and move towards achieving the objectives and targes of the Growth Plan. Accordingly, the final chapter of this report provides a more detailed discussion of the conclusions to be drawn from the analysis,along with the strategicdirectionsrecommended for consideration in later stages of the study.

124 ha
Units

1,500 2,900 4,400 120 jobs

Hemson Consulting Ltd., 2011. Detailed results are provided in the Appendix to this report.

As shown in the previous tables, there is a substantial potential for intensification in the City of Brantford. This is consistent with the experience of most other communities in the GGH, particularly those with an historic downtowncore and existing mixed-use corridors. Some opportunities will develop in the short term, while others will be realized over a longer period. Intensification willoccur as existing uses deteriorate to the point where they are no longer worth maintaining or the value of residential or retail land increases enough to make the intensification of existing developments financially feasible.

HEMSON

IV CONCLUSIONS AND STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS

The key conclusion to be drawn is that the City of Brantford is well-positioned to accommodate the Growth Plan 40% intensification rule. The densities of both the UGC and greenfield areas, however, are below Growth Plan targets. In light of these results, it is recommended that intensification be focussed in the UGC and steps be taken to increase the density of unplanned greenfield areas. Area
UGC

Table 9 Total lntensification Opportunities City of Brantford to 2031 Housing Unit Potential Short
201 1-21 3,470 1,900 80 71 5 1,500 7,665

Mid
2021-31 1,430 1,550 2,100 1,240 2,900 9,220 7,475 16,885

Jobs
1,660 3,170 1,800 725 120

A.

CITY CAN COMFORTABLY ACHIEVE THE GROWTH PLAN INTENSIFICATION TARGET

lntensification Areas North Central South Brownfields & others Total Source:

From both asupply anddemand perspective, the City is wellpositioned to achieve its intensification target. There is a significant supply potential and the future demand outlook is positive, particularly with respect to employment and the expansion of post-secondary education.

Hemson Consulting Ltd., 201 1

1.

Significant Supply Potential Exists

As shown in Table 9, in total there is a potential for

approximately 16,885 residential units and 7,475 jobs through intensification over the period to 2031. Relative to the overall growth forecast, this can be considered to be a significant supply potential.

The area with the largest potential for intensification is the UGC, at approximately 4,900 units (3,470 short-term units and 1,430 units in the mid-term to 2031) and 1,660 jobs. Outside of the UGC, the arterialcorridors in north Brandord have the greatest potential for intensification, with the remaining areas such as brownfields and other scattered sites having a somewhat more limited potential. In total, the City of Brandord's potential of 16,885 units is greatly in excess of that required to accommodate the Growth Plan 40% target of 3,800 units.

HEMSON

2.

City Is Well-Positioned to Attract More Intense Forms of Development

3.

Planned Expansion of Wilfrid Laurier Will Further Support Intensification

In addition to having a large supply potential, the City also appears to be very well-positioned to accommodate the demand for intensification. A number of observations lead us to this conclusion, including: The recent rate of intensification, which has been above 40%. According to the City's 2010 Residential Monitoring Report, the City has averaged a rate of 44% intensification, although it should be recognized that a large contributor has been the development of rental housing supported by the City's Affordable Housing Program; Brantford's role as central City and regional service centre within the broader economic region, which over time will lead to growth in higher-level services such as regional retail facilities, culture and entertainment and health care, as well as more intensive forms of development; and The regional land supply situation, in particular the industrial land supply. The City of Brantford's ability to provide large development parcels with access to Highway 403 is a major competitive advantage in the GGH employment land market. This advantage is expected to result in steady employment growth over the period to 2031, which will further increase the community's attraction as a location for more intensive forms of development.

A further factor likely tosupport intensificationin Brantford is the planned expansionof the Wilfrid Laurier University in the Downtown Area. According to the University's2010 Campus Marter Plan:
Enrolment is forecast to grow from 2,000 to 15,000 students to 2023 and beyond; Growth in enrolment will require approximately 1,500 additional faculty and staff; Approximately 250,000 m2of new building space will be required for classrooms, library facilities, recreation and athletic space and other uses, such as food services and assembly facilities; Between 3,000 and 4,400 new parking spaces will be required; and The University will need to addnearly 5,000 new beds to its current inventory of student residences? Growth in enrolment and associatedbuildingspace will have a major impact on intensification, particularly in the UGC which is anticipated to be a major focus of the University's planned expansion.

For details, see the Wilfrid Laurier University Campus Master Plan, prepared by IBI Group in Januaq 201 0 . Some of the forecast employment growth may be post-203 1 .

'

HEMSON

In our view, the City of Brantford is well-positioned to accommodate the Growth Plan 40% intensification target. There is a significant supply potential, one that is well in excess of the required 3,800units. The outlook for growth in the community is positive, particularly as it relates to the regional land supply situation and planned expansion of Wilfrid Laurier University.

As shown in Table 10 below, the density of the UGC is estimated to have risen from approximately 60 residents and jobs combined per ha to 64 in 2006 and then to 68 in 201 1. The density is based on an overall land area of 110 gross ha as measured from the City's GIS database and in accordance with the Growth Plan density definition.

B.

DENSITY I S BELOW GROWTH PLAN TARGETS FOR THE UCC AND GREENFIELD AREAS

Table 10 Estimated Density of Urban Growth Centre (UCC) City of Brantford

UGC
2001 2,500 4,100 6,600 2006 2,700 4,300 7,000 110ha 60 64 68 201 1 2,900 4,600 7,500

Currently, the Growth Plan targets for density in the City of Brantford's UGC and designated greenfield areas are not being met. The density of the UGC is approximately 68 residents and jobs per ha, which is below the 150 mandated by the Growth Plan. The planned density of the City's greenfield land supply is also below the Growth Plan target of 50 residents and jobs per ha.
1.

Population
Employment Total

Land Area
Growth Plan density

Source:

Hemson Consulting Ltd., 201 1 based on available Census information.

Density of the U C C Is Approximately 68 Residents and Jobs Per ha

2.

Planned Density of the Greenfield Areas Is below

50 Residents and Jobs Per Ha

The density of the City's UGC has been estimated using a variety of information sources. It should be viewed as high. level in nature and for the purposes of strategy formulation, given that population and employment figures are not available at the UGC geography, they must be estimated from Census Tract data and recent development patterns between Census periods.

The City of Brantford's designated greenfield areas are made up of both residential and industrial (employment land) areas.'The City's greenfield residential supply is made up of three specific areas, including:

HEMSON

A large area insouthwest Brantford referred to asas'West of Conklin" which is subject to secondary plan policies set out in the City's official plan; An area generally adjacent to the business park at the intersectionofOakParkRoad and Highway 403, which is designated for low-density residential use; and Two smaller areas, one in south Brantford adjacent to Erie Avenue and one in East Brantford, east of Garden Avenue and north of Colboume Street East. These residential areas are identified on "Schedule B" to OPA 125, shown as Schedule 1-2 to the City's official plan, as shownpreviously. The City's greenfield employment land supply is not explicitly shown on Schedule 1-2, but can be identified as comprising: An area in east Brantford, south of Highway 403 in the Braneida Industrial Area; and An area generally north of the intersection of Highway 403 and Oak Park Road in the Northwest Business Park. Within the West of Conklin secondary plan area, there are three distinct areas: An area referred to as "North of Shellard Lane" for which a detailed neighbourhood and recreation plan has been prepared;

An area further to the north, referred to in the City's Secondary Plan as "Area C/Modified Policy Area 7", which is not required to achieve the Growth Plan density target of 50 residents and jobs per ha because of its environmental sensitivity (Section 19.5.4.2); and An area south of Shellard Lane, for which detailed neighbourhood planning has not yet been finalized. The following Growth Plan densities have been estimated for these areas: The density of the North of Shellard Lane area is approximately 29 residents and jobs per ha! The density of the entire West of Conklin Secondary Plan Area, including North of Shellard Lane, is approximately 43 residents and jobs per ha; The density of the City's remaining residential areas is approximately55 residents and jobs per ha, bringing the overall density of the greenfield residential land supply to 47 residents and jobs per ha; and The density of the City's greenfield employment land supply is estimated to be approximately 32 jobs per ha. No residents are included in this estimate.

Based an a tom1 of 1,500 residents and 600 jobs and a land area of 57 ha, excluding only major natural features in accordance with the Growth Plan. The low density results mainly from the presence of large playingfields in the northeast. For details, see North of Shellard Neighbourhoad and Recreation Plan,prepared by the Planning Farmership in 201 1 .

As shown in Table 11 below, combining the employment

and residential areas of the City's greenfield land supply results in a Growth Plan density of 41 residents and jobs combined per ha. This density is below the target of 50 residents and jobs per ha combined.

C.

THREE STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS ARE RECOMMENDED

Table 11 Greenfield Density Analysis City of Brantford Area Residential West o Conklin f Remaining Areas Total Em~lovrnent Braneida Northwest General Northwest Prestige Total Total Source:
POP 10,300 7,120 17,420

Jobs
585 175 760
2,400 3,600 2,600 8,600 9,420

H a
255 135 390

Density
43 55 47

Based on the results of the analysis, three strategic directions are recommended for consideration. The first is to identify the UGC as the primary location for intensification. Second, the strategy should focus on the most likely locations of intensification outside of the UGC. And finally, steps should be taken to ensure the City is planning to achieve the Growth Plan greenfield density target, particularly in the West of Conklin secondary plan area.

1.

Identify the UGC as the Primary Location for Intensification

0 0 0 0 17,420

80 120 70 270

30 30 40 32 41
A

There are a number of reasons to identify the UGC as a primary location for intensification: There is large potential supply of sites to accommodate intensification; The redevelopment and revitalisation of the downtown is one of the City's strategic objectives, as explained in the official plan, Economic Dewlopment Strategy (2010) and Downtown Master Plan (2008); and The current density is below the Growth Plan target shown in Table 10 to be just under 70 residents and jobs combined per ha as compared to the Growth Plan target of 150 residents and jobs per ha.

650

Hemson Consulting Ltd., 2011 based on information provided by City of Brantford Staff and Appendix V-8 to thecity's official plan regardingthe land area, densityand housing mix for the West Conklin Secondary Plan. Analysis is based o available information.Results m y b n a e subject to revision based on more detailed land area measurements. Employment densities are gross rates in accordance with the Growth Plan, based on observed rates in other communitiesand considered reasonableand comparable to Brantford.

HEMSON

In order to implement the Growth Plan density target, it is estimated that approximately 9,000 residents and jobs will need to be added to the existing 7,500 residents and jobs, shown previously in Table 10. The estimate of the growth required is shown in Table 12.

The overallgrowth is likely to be accommodated as follows: Growth of 6,000 new residents would translate into between 2,900 and 4,000 new housing units, including student housing units. This estimate is based on a range of PPUs for rowhouses (2.1) and apartments (1.5) from the City's 2009 DC study. Thesupply potential of 4,900 units in the UGC shown in Table 9 is sufficient to accommodate this range of growth. Growth of 3,000 new jobs would likely be divided into three main types:

Table 12
Crowth in Residents and Jobs in the UCC To Implement Growth Plan Target

Component of Estimate Land Area o UGC f Growth Plan Density (residentsand jobs combined per ha) Total Residents and Jobsat Ultimate 2031 Development (1 10 ha times 150) Current Residents and Jobs(2011) Growth To be Added to Existing UGC Population (Residents)Growth to 2031 Employment Growth to 2031 Source: 110 ha 150 16,500 7,500 9.000 6,000 3,000

1.
2.

Approximately 1,500 university expansion jobs; Approximately 1,000 population-related jobs, including retail, health care, personal services and work-at-homeemployment.This estimate is based f on a rate o 1 population-related job for every 6 new residents over the period to 2031 (calculated by dividing the total of 6,000 residents by 6, resulting in approximately 1,000 new populationrelated jobs); and

Hemson Consulting Ltd., 2011. Distribution o growth f based on a 2 to 1 ratio o population to employment. A f high-level estimate: does not account fordeclines in the existing base o employment or population. f

3.

A remainder of 500 jobs (the total 3,000 jobs less

1,500 university expansion jobs and the 1,000 population-related jobs), accommodated either as stand-alone commercial uses or as part of larger mixed-use developments including employmenttype uses at high-profile locations.

Unlike the unit supply potential shown in Table 9, Table 12 shows an estimate of the future growth in residents and jobs that the City needs to plan to accommodate in the UGC to meet the Growth Plan target. As noted, some of this growth is anticipated to take place as part of the planneduniversity expansion: approximately 5,000 residentsinstudent housing and 1,500 faculty andstaff jobs.

These figures are considered optimistic but reasonable for the purposes of the intensification strategy.

HEMSON

With respect to the location and timing of intensification within the UGC, the City may wish to consider focussing its immediate efforts to the south where the larger development parcels are located. While there may be a great potential for intensification in the Downtown, some of the planning issues surrounding redevelopment are likely to be more complex and contentious because of the finer-grained pattern of development, difficulties in property assembly and the number of affected stakeholders.
2.

FACTORSAFFECTINGINTENSIFICATION

Small Chanpe

NoChanp.

Focus on Most Likely Short-term Opportunities in Other Locations

In the City of Brantford, the likelihood of realizing intensification opportunities within and outside ofthe UGC depends on anumber of key factors and on the compatibility or "fit" between these factors. As illustrated over, while any one factor by itself may represent a potential for intensification, the probability of actually bringing that opportunity to market is comparatively low. Or, in other words, not all of the possible opportunities that may exist will be realized. Intensification andredevelopment typically occur primarily with older buildings and sites and late in the development cycle for a particular area. Within the City of Brantford, there will likely be very little pressure for the redevelopment of newer buildings in recently developed areas, that is, for them to be demolished and rebuilt with other uses.

With the exception of a few especially high-value locations, suburban-typeretail, commercial or industrial buildings are generally not redeveloped until they are at least 40 to 50 years old. Only over the very long term in suburban locations do land costs increase relative to diminishing building value to the point that there arises an interest or economic incentive to demolish and redevelop!

A good example from the GTAH are the mid-size grocey stores of the 1950s or 1960s that were abandoned in the 1970s and 1980s, thensubsequently became occupied by population-sewinguses such as gyms or karate and dance studios -and only recently have started to come under interest for redevelopment with higher-density residential or commercial use. In the past few years, large-fomt retail stores have been considered "temporary" but this must be seen only within the context of the very long term.

Over the next 25 years, many areas in the City will be entering the age where the attractiveness for redevelopment begins to increase, particularly the older and already mixeduse corridors in central and southern Brantford. In the short term, however, some sites are particularly well-suited for redevelopment and warrant specific attention in the strategy. These sites are: The former Canadian Tire facility on Colbome Street East, for which there is a known interest and therefore an immediate opportunity for redevelopment; The parking lot and other areas associated with the Brantford Transit station on Darling Street, an opportunity for transit-oriented development; The Greenwich-Mohawk brownfields, an opportunity for large-scale redevelopment, including the potential reuse of the remaining heritage buildings similar to the Distillery District in the City of Toronto; Apotentialproperty assembly in the vicinity of the Bell City Foundry on West Street, an opportunity for lowand medium-density redevelopment; and In a more suburban context, the parcel on the south side of Fairview Drive near the intersection of King George Road and Highway 403, an opportunity to take advantage of superb transportation access for either residential or employment intensification.

3.

Take Steps to Ensure That the City's Greenfield Density Target Is Achieved

Finally, it is recommended that steps be taken to ensure that the City is planning to achieve the Provincial density target for greenfield areas. As noted, the current planned density of the City's greenfield areas is 41 residents and jobs per ha, which is below the Growth Plan target. One of the main opportunities to address the issue is in the more detailed neighbourhoodplanning for the area south of Shellard Lane. According to the City's official plan, the West of Conklin Secondary Plan area is expected to achieve a minimum net density of 50 residents andlor jobs per ha (Section 19.2.1, emphasis added), excluding natural areas, stormwater management and roads. Under the Growth Plan, however, the greenfield density target is to be measured on a gross basis, defined as excluding only the major natural features that are identified in local or Provincial plans.1 Based on a gmss land area definition in accordance with the Growth Plan, the net density expectation for the West of Conklin Secondary Plan area translates into a Growth Plan density of 43 residents and jobs per ha. As shown in Table 13, in order for the City to achieve the Growth Plan density target on a community-wide basis, the West of Conklin Secondary Plan area would need to be planned to achieve an overall density in excess of 60 residents and jobs per ha.

' For derails, see Technical Backgrounder Intensification

and Density Targets (undated) prepared by the (then) Ministry of Public Infrastructure Renewal.

HEMSON

Table 13 Estimated Density Required in West of Conklin Area To Achieve Growth Plan Greenfield Density Target City of Brantford Area Residential West of Conklin Remaining Areas Total Em~lovment Braneida Northwest General Northwest Prestige Total Total Source:
POP
16,000 7,120 23,120

Whilesignificantlyhigher densities may not be practical or achievable for the lands south of Shellard Lane, options for increasing the planned density, where appropriate, should still be considered; Although units within registered and draft approved plans of subdivision represent fairly certain supply and are difficult to change, there are some plans which indicate future medium- and high-density blocks. Additional analysis should be undertaken to identify the unit potential of such blocks and the City should ensure the plans are implemented. The potential to include some employment uses should also be considered as a way to increase planned density; There may also be an opportunity to increase the planned density of remaining greenfield residential areas, particularly those designated for low-density residential use. Consideration should be given to encouraging a broader mix and higher density of housing, including additional rowhouse and apartment units, as well as employment uses, a appropriate, in an s effort to achieve the minimum 50 residents and jobs combined per ha as per the Growth Plan; and

lobs
800 175 975

H a
255 135 390

Density
66 55 62

0 0 0 0 23,120

2,400 3,600 2,600 8,600 9,575

80 120 70 270 650

30 30 40 32 50

Hemson Consulting Ltd., 201 1, based on the analysis summarized in Table 11. The distribution o population f and employment is based on the shares calculated from Appendix V-B to th City's oficial plan

The lands south of Shellard Lane may need to be planned at even higher densities, given that the North of Shellard area is planned to achieve only 29 residents and jobs per ha and special policy "Area C" to the north is not included in the Growth Plan density calculation. y According to ~ k staff, however, planning for such a high density is neither practical nor achievable within the west of Conklin Area. As a result, it is recommended that a number of steps be taken to ensure that the City is planning to achieve the GrowthPlandensity target on a community-wide basis. The steps are set out below:

If after undertaking this additional analysis it is shown

that the City cannot realistically plan to achieve the Growth Plan greenfield density target, then discussions with the Province may be required to consider options for alternative density targets.

HEMSON

The City of Brantford is well-positioned to achieve the GrowthPlanpoliciesand targets for intensification There is a large potential supply of intensification opportunities and the growth outlook is positive. It is recommended that the City focus intensification within the UGC and downtown area to take advantage offuture opportunities and ensure the Growth Plan density targets are met. Intensification should continue to be permitted along the identified corridors and areas outside of the UGC, including brownfields, but the focus shouldbe on parcels considered to have the greatest short-term potential. These include sites with known development interest, sites in close proximity to transit or infrastructure or sites that offer other City-building opportunities such as the adaptive reuse and conservation of existing heritage buildings. TheCity should also consider increasing the planneddensity of the designated greenfield areas, which on a communitywide basis are below the Growth Plan target of 50 residents and jobs per ha. A number of steps will need to be taken to address this issue, including planning for higher densities in the West of Conklin area. We trust that the analysis and recommendations presented in this report are of assistance in preparing the intensification strategy.

HEMSON

32
Typical Mixed Use Building With Surface Parking Street front Retail, Standard Corridor Redevelopment Typical Building 1.0 ha 1.0 times 10,000 square meters 4.0 2,500 square meters 80% Stairwells, utilities, etc. 2,000 square meters Typical Mixed Use Building With Surface Parking Taller Building Urban Growth Centre Retail Typical Building Site Area 1.0 ha Building Space Coverage 1.5 times Total Building Space 15,000 square meters Floors 6.0 Total Space Per Floor 2,500 square meters 80% Stairwells, utilities, etc. Gross t o net adjustment Net Floor Area 2,000 square meters Units Per ha Estimate 5 Number of Res Floors Total Net Res Space 10,000 square meters Unit Size 80 sauare meters

Site Area: Building Space Coverage: Total BuildingSpace: Floors: Total Space Per Floor: Gross to net adjustment: Net Floor Area:

Units Per ha Estimate 3 Number of Res Floors: Total Net Res Space: 6,000 square meter Unit Size: 80 square meter

Summary of Development Potentiai City o f Brantford lntemificatiti~n Corridors 0P Designation Commercial Low Density Residential Medium Density Residential High Density Residential Other Total Summaryof Short-Term Development Potential Number of Parcels LandMea (Hal Employment 2,969 48 58.31 5 1.10 3.29 4 441 2 3 60 64.91 3,411 HousingUnits 2,362 37 187 110 2,695

Summary of Mid-Term Development Potentiai OP Designation lcommerciai

Number of Parcels 242

Land Area lHa1 42

Employment 2,118

Housing Units 3,538

Other Total l ~ o t a[Intensification Conidon1 l UrbanGrnwth Centre

I
379

I 1
1

60.85 125.76

I 1
1

2,279 5,690

I 1 1

4,897 7,593

439

Summarv of Short-Term Develooment Potentiai OPDelignation lcommercia~ Low Denrity Reridential Medium Density Residential High Denrity Residential Other Total

Number of Parcels 174 6 1 181

LandArea(Ha1 25.93 0.93 5.79 32.64

Empi~ment 1,145

HousingUnits 3,411 56

1,145

3,467

Summary of Mid-Term Development Potential OPDesignation lcommerciai Low Denrity Reridential Medium Denrity Residential High Denrity Residential Other Total Total (urban Growth Centre) Total (Carridon+ UGC)

Number of Parcels 91

Land Area (Ha) 15

1 I 1 1 1

Employment 515

1
I 1

HousingUnits 1.289

I
144

I 1
1 1

16.97 49.61 175.37

515 1.660 7,350

1,426 4,892 12,485

I I

325 764

1 1

..r

I*?:
4

Summary o f Development Potential Urban G r o w t h Centre Summary of Short-Term Development Potential Number of Parcels Land Area (Ha) Employment

OP Designation Commercial Low Density Residential Medium Density Residential High Density Residential Other Total

Housing Units

173
6

25.76 0.93

1,137

3,390 56

I 180 1
1

1 32.48 1
5.79

1,137

3,446

OP Designation Commercial Low Density Residential Medium Density Residential High Density Residential Other Total Grand Total

Summary of Mid-Term Development Potential Number of Parcels Land Area (Ha) Employment

Housing Units

91 2 51

14.56 0.23 2.17

515

1,289 7 130

144 324

16.97 49.44

515
1,652

1,426 4,872

Details of DevelopmentPotential Short-Term and Mid-Term Urban Growth Centre Parcel ID Development Potential
OP Designation

Zoning Area (Ha)

I
I

Mixed Use Jobs Density

Mixed Use Units Density

Low Density Res Units perHa

Medium Density Res Units

'

?"st-.

8,-

e Notes

l ~ e Notes e

.aaholdwa lad sJalaw O* le aaeds l!ejaJ l o sanaw alenbs 000'8 Alalew!xo~dde paseq luawholdw3 :(yJed aleys) ~ 5 8 lawed JOJ aloN uo ~ 2 .aaAoldwa Jad SJaIaw Ople aaeds ]!elaJ40 SaJlaW alenbs 000'8 Alalew!xoJdde UO paseq luawholdw3 :(?led a!eH 1% E69W IaaJed JOJ alON 1) '

Summary o f Development Potential Charing Cross Summary of Short-Term Development Potential

p Housin Units OP Desi nation

Commercial Low Density Residential Medium Density Residential High Density Residential Total Summary of Mid-Term Development Potential OP Designation l~ommercial Low Density Residential Medium Density Residential High Density Residential Other Total l ~ r a n Total d Number of Parcels

I
Land Area (Ha) 3.99 Employment Housing Units 299

43

200

67 67

6.97 6.97

241

531
531

241

Details of Development Potential Shon-Term and Mid-Term Charing Cross

sqor sau h!suaa 4 8 ! ~

svun san Qsuaa ~ B ! H

s~!ufl sax &!suaa moi

h!suaa si!un asn p a x ! ~

h!suaa sqor asn pax!w

( e ~e a ~ v Bu!uoz )

uo!ieu%!saado

le!iuaiod luarudolanaa

01laxed

Summary o f Development Potential Colborne St E Summary o f Short-Term Development Potential Number of Parcels Land Area (Ha) Employment

OP Designation Commercial Low Density Residential Medium Density Residential High Density Residential Other

Housing Units

3 1

4.58 0.07

125

664 4

OP Designation Commercial Low Density Residential Medium Density Residential High Density Residential Other

Summary o f Mid-Term Development Potential Number of Parcels Land Area (Ha) Employment

Housing Units

17 1 3

4.36 0.33 1.84

218

327 20 369

92

Grand Total

25

11.18

435

1,383

.eq lad n!un 0s14a k!ruap uo pareq q u n au!snoH 'saaAoldwa lad uaaaw able amds i!eaa~40 sanaw alenbsooo'vAlalelu!xoldde uo pareq aualuAoldw3 : T E B P ~ ~ aaoN~ JO, J ~

aaoN aas

WJal-p!W PUB Ullal-VOL(S le!auaaod auamdolaAaa40 sl!eaaa

Summary of Development Potential Colborne St W Summary of Short-Term Development Potential O Desi nation P p Housing Units Commercial Low Density Residential Medium Density Residential High Density Residential Other Total

8 1

0.59 0.17

30

44 3

0.76

30

47

O Designation P Commercial Low Density Residential Medium Density Residential High Density Residential Other

Summary of Mid-Term Development Potential Number of Parcels Land Area (Ha) Employment

Housing Units

52

4.12

206

309

12

0.55

27

110

Grand Total

73

5.43

263

466

Summary of Development Potential Erie Ave Summary of Short-Term Development Potential OP Designation Commercial Low Density Residential Medium Density Residential High Density Residential Other Number of Parcels Land Area (Ha) Employment Housing Units

Summary of Mid-Term Development Potential OP Designation Commercial Low Density Residential Medium Density Residential High Density Residential Other Total Grand Total Number of Parcels Land Area (Ha) Employment Housing Units

9 48

0.51 2.37

26

38 71

57

2.88

26 26

110 110

57

2.88

Details of Development Potential Short-Term and Mid-Term Erie Ave

,eq lad sqof Ob UO paseq luawholdw3 :(puel le!llSnpUl lUeJeA) 88222 g E806T ' S t 8 5 SlaJlEd lOJ alON 'aaholdwa lad sajlaw alenbs m alle~ano~ 'luauAoldwa leplawwoJ %OOT uo pareg :(al!sJln3 S) %sz I~ ! I L L ~ Z Z 9 ~ 9 slamed 104 aloN 9 2 ~

saioN aas saloN aaS

n 09
si!un
. ran h!suaa wn!pam

eH lad Si!W O E sl!un s a A~!suaa ~ MOT

e lad Sl!W 5 L H Aa!suaa sl!un asn p a x ! ~

Aa!suaa sqor asn pax!w

( e ~e a ~ v Su!uoz )

uo!aeull!saa do

le!luaaod iuawdolanaa

a1 laxed

Details of Development Potential Short-Term and Mid-Term King George Rd

Details of Development Potential Shon-Term and Mid-Term LVnden Rd

Parcel ID

I I ". ,,

Development ~otential

I OP Designation I

I
z

Zoning

I
"7

h e a (Hal

I-,
1

13878) 138sll

Gc~ DC~

C8-64 2 IC -I

Mixed UreJobs Density 50 Jobs per Ha

Mixed Use Units Density 75 Units per Ha

2.40 24.80

1501 4381

Note for Parcel 13881ILvnden Park Maill: Vacant ponionr as shown on map Rota1 of 7.0 ha1 bared on 100% commercial employment, 25% coverage and 40 square metres per empiayee N a e f o r Parcels 13877 & 13878 (Vacant commercial rites): Employment bared on approximately 4,000 square metres of retali space at 40 meters per employees; Notefor Parcels 13877 & 13878 (Vacant commercial rites): HousingUnit5 bared on density of 150 unit3 per ha.

Details of Development Potential Short-Term and Mid-Term St. Paul Ave

Summary of Development Potential Wayne Gretzky Pkwy Summary of Short-Term Development Potential Number of Parcels Land Area (Ha) Employment

OP Designation Commercial Low Density Residential Medium Density Residential High Density Residential Other Total

Housing Units

2 2

7.08 2.87

421

128
161

9.94

421

289

OP Designation Commercial Low Density Residential Medium Density Residential High Density Residential Other Total Grand Total

Summary of Mid-Term Development Potential Number of Parcels Land Area (Ha) Employment

Housing Units

9.94

421

289

Details of Development Potential Short-Term and Mid-Term Wayne Gretzky Pkwy Parcel ID Development Potential
OP Designation

Zoning

Area (Ha)

Mixed Use Jobs Density S Jobs O

I
851

Mixed Use Units Density nits per Ha 1281

Medium Density Res Units 60 Units per ha^ See Note

15398 15395 18640

1 1 1

G C MDRES MDRES

C8-25 H-R48 H-R4B

1.70 0.37 2.50

1 1

150

Note for Parcel 29115 (Vacant Lands south of Lynden Park Mail): Based on 100% commercial employment, 25% coverage 40 square metres per employee.

1 LOT

IIL

1 EVE
158'0

1 b9
8

.-

1a ,. .

15D83 163

123

ps

IZ

11

IWIL ,."..

'ION 3%

-ON

4 0 N 'as ax

lSWM LUlsl-P!IY pue WI~I-UDVSS

IE!IUW~

auawdo~-ap illus.

Summary of Development Potential Brownfields & Other Parcels Summary of Short-Term (Brownfields) Development Potential
OP Designation p Housin Units

Commercial Low Density Residential Medium Density Residential High Density Residential Other Total

0.52

26

39

10

26.28

1
Employment

123

1,496

Summary o f Mid-Term (Other Parcels) Development Potential OP Designation Commercial Low Density Residential Medium Density Residential High Density Residential Other Total Grand Total 57 67 96.37 122.65 123 2,891 4,387 Number of Parcels Land Area (Ha) Housing Units

57

96.37

2,891