ENERGY CRISES IN PAKISTAN

Energy is the most important source for economic growth of a country. Unfortunately Pakistan has to face a major energy crisis in natural gas, power and oil in next three to four years. This would hinder the economy of Pakistan. The high cost of the import of oil, construction of big dams, uncertain regional security environment coupled with lack of national consensus to build dams are likely to impede quick resolution of energy crises. This energy deficit will lead to inflation. Similarly subsidies of billions of rupees have to be doped out Wapda to bear loses. This would affect the national exchequer heavily. An energy crises is looming large in up coming years. There is an expected short fall up to fifty percent because of increase in demand and supply gas up to 3,000 MW. Pakistans total energy requirement would increase by 48% to 80 million tones of oil equivalent in 2010. Pakistan energy sector comprises of major sources with share of 50.4% of gas, followed by oil 29%, hydro electricity 11%, and coal 7.6%. Consequently Pakistan imports energy to overcome the problem and maintain standard of living of people. The major shortfall is expected in natural gas supplies. Pakistan had 28 trillion cubic feet reserves of natural gas in 2006 but due to increase in its demand it is expected to be depleted in next two decades. Pakistan has a huge demand to generate power through oil but we can meet only 20% of our requirement through Indigenous production and rest of oil is imported from Gulf States and other countries of world. No major oil field so for have been discovered in last three decades. Oil demand is expected to double by 2015 and quadruple by 2025. This would lead to a staggering trade deficit, and rising of general prices. Pakistan has a total hydro potential of 40,000MW against which it generates only 6500 MW. If the dams are not built there would be short fall of 40 million acre feet of water by the year 2006 and 108 million acre feet by 2013. Consequently power shortage will be up to 11,750 mkwh per year. It will affect agricultural, industry, and particularly the storage capacity of Mangla Terbela and Chashma dams will be reduced due to mud deposits. Pakistan has worlds seven largest reserves of coal after discovery of THAR. These reserves are still untouched due to lack of technique in coal mining. Similarly solar and wind energy in coastal areas of Balouchistan and Sind have a lot of potential to generate electricity but acquisition of technology at an enormous cost makes this a far fetched source. Pakistan has only two nuclear plants providing two percent of electricity to our country. Population explosion is another cause of energy crises. The government should make strategies to overcome the energy crises. The government plans to generate 7880 MW electricity by 2010 out of it 4860 MW is to be generated by firing natural gas. It should maximize the utilization of hydroelectric resources through building of dams such as KALA BAGH DAM, BHASHA DAM etc. to produce cheap

electricity. It should improve relations with international and Regional Corporation. It should activate in Thar coal project with the assistance of china to address energy crises. It should opt new policies to overcome the problem through renewable energy resources i.e solar, wind and tidal energy. It should take positive steps to finalize international gas pipe line projects i.e. IPI (India, Pakistan, Iran) Gas pipe line project which meet the needs of gas demands of Pakistan and possibly India. It should make effort to fulfill the project with TURKEMANISTAN and AFGHANISTAN gas pipe line which was floated by Turkemanistan in 1991 to meet the demands of gas for Pakistan. Similarly a Sharjah based company initiated and sponsored a gas import project through an offshore pipe line from QATAR TO PAKISTAN IN 1990 but it is still under consideration. Presently Pakistan is pursuing a multi pro-longed strategy to ensure adequate and uninterrupted oil and gas supply and other energy resources to sustain the present pattern of energy for the rapid national economic growth. Greater reliance on gas, aggressive pursuit of hydroelectric power generation, and enhancing nuclear power generation capacity are some of the key elements of this strategy. Pakistan is also seeking to expand its primary energy supply base by encouraging oil exploration and power generation companies to under take energy project in Pakistan. The regional gas pip line projects in which Pakistan is actively pursuing to meet its expanding domestic energy demands. These are the pre-requisite for resolving energy crises that, unless resolved promptly, would cast a long shadow on the short and medium term objectives of economic growth and development.
Solving Pakistan's Energy crisis
Here are some technologies that can help alleviate the dependence on fossil fuel based power generation and which can help solve Pakistan's energy crisis. 1. Solar Updraft Towers.

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Solar Sterling Engines

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Power of Innovation The solar dish Stirling technology is well beyond the research and development phase, with more than 20 years of recorded operating history. The equipment is well characterized with over 50,000 hours of on-sun time. Since 1984, the Solar Dish Stirling equipment has held the world's efficiency record for converting solar energy into grid-quality electricity. This record was achieved when the technology was installed in Huntington Beach, California. SES coordinated with the U.S. Department of Energy and Sun-Labs (National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories) to conduct an endurance test of the solar dish Stirling system and to bring the technology to market. Sun Catcher Technology :: How It Work;The Sun Catcher is a 25-kilowatt-electrical (kWe) solar dish Stirling system which consists of a unique radial solar concentrator dish structure that

supports an array of curved glass mirror facets, designed to automatically track the sun, collect and focus, that is, concentrate, its solar energy onto a patented Power Conversion Unit (PCU). The PCU is coupled with, and powered by, a completely reengineered SES Stirling engine that generates power grid-quality electricity. Power Conversion Unit (PCU) The PCU converts the focused solar thermal energy into grid-quality electricity. The conversion process in the PCU involves a closed-cycle, high-efficiency four-cylinder, reciprocating Solar Sterling Engine utilizing an internal working fluid that is recycled through the engine. The Solar Sterling Engine operates with heat input from the sun that is focused by the Sun Catchers dish assembly mirrors onto the PCU's solar receiver tubes which contain hydrogen gas. The PCU solar receiver is an external heat exchanger that absorbs the incoming solar thermal energy. This heats and pressurizes the gas in the heat exchanger tubing, and this gas in turn powers the Solar Stirling Engine. A generator is connected to the Solar Stirling Engine; and produces the grid-quality electrical output of the Sun Catcher. Waste heat from the engine is transferred to the ambient air via a radiator system similar to those used in automobiles. The gas is cooled by a radiator system and is continually recycled within the engine during the power cycle. The conversion process does not consume water, as is required by most thermal-powered generating systems. New Radial Dish Design The Sun Catcher uses an innovative radial design for its concentrating mirrors. At sunrise, each Sun Catcher automatically rotates to face The Sun, and with sophisticated automation software, tracks, collects, and focuses the suns energy onto a single point, the Power Conversion Unit.

In India, waste-to-energy projects have been successfully implemented since 1995. Most of the initiatives are designed to harvest energy from the waste produced by industries, e.g. the waste of palm oil industries in Andhra Pradesh and the poultry droppings of one million birds of nearby poultry farms in Tamil Nadu The worst ever energy crisis in the history of Pakistan has not been overcome yet, even when two years have passed since the present government took charge in February 2008. The minister for water and power stipulated several deadlines to overcome the crisis on different forums, but no effort has brought us fruitful results. The situation requires not only simultaneous short-term and long-term planning but also out-of-the-box solutions that are innovative, cost-effective and adaptable, and have the potential to tap private sector investment. The energy crisis is not unmanageable but requires a high level of commitment from the government machinery to address it on priority basis. The country has a total installed power generating capacity of 19,450 megawatts (MW) from different sources. Presently, the share of energy consumption in the country is 23 percent residential, 34 percent industrial, 34 percent transportation, 3.0 percent commercial, 3.0 percent agriculture and 3.0 percent government offices. It is interesting to note that of

the total installed capacity the public sector contributes 70 percent while the private sectors share is estimated at 30 percent. In order to cater to the needs of the domestic and industrial sector, a shortfall of 8,000 MW is estimated, to overcome which is targeted by FY2010. There are a number of alternate energy resources that are being considered by the planners. These include: wind, solar, solar thermal, biomass (waste-to-energy), bio fuels, micro hydel, geo thermal and geo magmatic. In Pakistan, quite a few organisations in the NGO sector have the ability to provide technical solutions and backing support for service delivery development programmes. Green Circle Organisation (GCO) is one of them, which has been developing and implementing multi-dimensional programmes in the sector of agriculture and production of energy. According to the president of this organisation, the most suitable alternate option to produce low cost energy in the private sector is waste-to-energy. Such types of programmes can be developed and implemented at the district level and can be managed locally. Like in China, the government should motivate and support city governments for the implementation of projects for renewable biomass energy. It is estimated that the top 10 cities of Pakistan produce 50,000 tonnes waste, which can be used to produce 6,000 MW energy. In Faisalabad alone, 714,000 households produce 714 tonnes garbage (1 kg/household at minimum), which can be utilised for the production of 86 MW. It does not include the waste produced by factories and textile industries which is more than 50 percent of the total waste and has high heating value. For the purpose of management, it a decision is required on the size or models to serve communities and businesses, e.g. villages, union councils, industries, shopping malls, tehsils/towns and districts, etc. Considering the availability of resources, local needs and potential of consumers, different patterns of infrastructure can be developed and implemented. In India, these kinds of projects have been successfully implemented since 1995 with the assistance of international funding agencies. Most of the initiatives are designed and implemented to harvest energy from the waste produced by industries, e.g. the waste of palm oil industries in Andhra Pradesh and the poultry droppings of one million birds of nearby poultry farms in Tamil Nadu. In 2008, the federal government decided to set up 31 waste-to-energy additional power projects in eight states. During 2004-05, projects based on industrial wastes were entitled to subsidy for reducing the rate of interest to 4.0 percent for special category states and 6.0 percent for other states on the loans availed by promoters through financial institutions. The financial support for municipal solid waste-based projects was available during 2002-03 (capital subsidy of 50 percent of the cost of projects limited to Rs 3.0 crore per MW for demonstration projects and interest subsidy for commercial projects) and was under review for rationalisation. The government should plan to subsidise the installation and production of energy through new sources. At present, WAPDA purchases electricity at different prices, i.e. furnace oil-based production

at Rs 12.5 per unit, Sui gas-based Rs 6.5 per unit and the lowest is hydelbased at Rs 3.5 per unit. The cost of waste-to-energy is anticipated to be on the lower side in the long run after developing infrastructure and human resource capacities. In order to sensitise and educate different stakeholders, academia and the media should organise debates at different forums, which will create acceptance for such types of investments in public, corporate and not-for-profit sectors. In addition, academia should emphasise on such technologies while designing courses so that sufficient human resources may be produced in the years to come.
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2010\01\12\story_12-1-2010_pg3_6

Alternate Ways to Overcome Energy Crisis in Pakistan

Energy in all forms is closely linked to economic prosperity of the county. Energy demand is increasing day by day because of urbanization, climate change and global warming. Pakistan is energy deficient country because of its inadequate energy power supply mix, rising energy gap between supply & demand, lack of energy efficiency legislation and its implementation. Conventional ways of generation of electricity energy through non-renewable resources is a long term process and this process usually takes five to ten years. In parallel to this, we should adopt all alternate ways to save and generate electricity through renewable resources to overcome the energy crisis in Pakistan. We discuss below that what the alternate ways to save and generate energy are. ENERGY CONSERVATION AND ENERGY EFFICEINCY IMPROVEMENT The first and foremost task is to save and conserve energy in domestic, commercial, industrial and institutional facilities. Every facility is trying to conserve energy but process is too slow because of the lack of the energy conservation legislation and its implementation. The most dominant energy saving activity is the replacement of incandescent lights with compact florescent lighting (CFL). No doubt this activity will save lot of energy but this is not sufficient. The energy saving activities to be adopted in domestic, industrial, commercial and institutional facilities are as follows,
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Insulation of buildings roofs, walls, pipes and ducts. Use of glazed glass at building facades

Use of energy efficient materials in buildings o Use of high efficiency motors, pumps and controllers o Use of Variable Frequency Drives (VFDs) o Replacement of conventional heating & cooling by solar water heating & cooling o Replacement of electro-magnetic ballast by electronic ballasts o Replacement of conventional lighting by LED and Solar Lighting o Installation of automatic shut off of lighting o Installation of occupancy sensors o Installation of exterior lighting controls
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Pakistan Engineering Council and ENERCON have made joint efforts to conclude the Building Energy Code 2010 through a task force consisting of experts from various sectors and Izhar Group also contributed in this endeavor but without legislation and its implementation, we can not achieve energy saving targets. There is a need for quick enforcement of the Building Energy code 2010 so that national energy saving targets can be achieved. ALTERNATE AND RENEWABLE ENERGY APPLICATIONS SOLAR THERMAL

Solar Thermal is the process of generating heating and cooling through solar radiations. Solar Water Heaters are very economical and feasible option for use

in domestic, commercial, industrial and institutional facilities. The barrier to the growth of application of solar water heating is the lack of knowledge, skills for installation, operation and use of solar water heaters. The users behavior and wrong perceptions is also one of the main barriers in its growth. The growth of the solar water heaters can be increased by creating more incentives by the government and making it mandatory through Building Energy Code to install solar water heaters in all kinds of facilities. The payback of solar water solution varies from one to two years. SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAICS Solar Photovoltaic is the process of generation of electricity through solar radiations. It is commonly called as PV. PV components include Solar Panels, Inverters and Charge Controllers, Deep Cycle Batteries, Mountings, cables and accessories. Solar PV solution is not affordable and feasible as the current price of PV solution is $8 per watt. This high cost is because of 40% duties on PV Components. The recent news in media about zero duty shows that Government has reduced duties to zero but one time zero duty needs more clarification by the Government. If the news of zero duty for all times is correct, this will spur growth in PV sector and this can help in saving energy. Grid Tied is process by which the electricity can be sold back by user to the grid at fixed feed-in-tariff and when electricity is sold back, the energy meter moves in reverse direction. Grid-Tied policy implementation is the real solution to overcome energy crisis in Pakistan. Alternate and Renewable Energy Policy 2010 is almost ready and in last Women to Energy Conference at PEC, it was told by AEDB that this policy will be enforced in January 2011 but so far this policy is also prey to vested interests. This policy can bring revolution in Pakistan if truly implemented. SOLAR & LED LIGHTING Solar and LED lighting is really a best energy saving option. The barrier in its growth is the high percentage of duties on import of Solar and LED lights. If the duties are made zero, this sector can grow at faster pace. It is just an estimate that 400 watts of conventional search light can be replaced by 80 Watt LED search Lights. You can see tremendous search lights in Government and

Pakistan buildings and about one fifth energy can be saved by just replacement of conventional lights with LED lights. LED lighting has tremendous advantages in comparison with conventional lighting. WIND POWER Wind Power is relatively a cheaper alternate energy solution and Pakistan has great potential in wind power. The barrier in its growth is the lengthy process of acquisition of land and coordination issues of wind power developers with the Government Institutions. Implementation of AE and RE policy 2010 can be instrumental in its fast growth of wind power. ENERGY ADMINSTRATION AUTHORITY One of the barriers in growth of Alternate and Renewable applications is the lack of presence of one sole Energy Administration Authority for regulation of energy sector. We strongly recommend that that one Energy Administration Authority should be evolved to streamline decision making. Energy Efficiency Improvement and use of alternate and renewable energy applications can bring the country out of energy crises and it will help in reduction of GHS emissions enhancing energy security of the country. Government should provide facilitation through legislation, Private sector should follow the policies and laws and all chambers of commerce and industries should bridge this gap by providing platform where the Private and Government sector should work as team for growth of Alternate ad Renewable Energy Sector in Pakistan.