The State of the Conservative Movement

2012 Manning Centre Barometer

2,067 on-line interviews conducted between Feb 10-20, 2012. The margin of error is 2.4 percentage points within a 95% confidence interval.

Positive news

Sobering news

Opportunities

Ideological scale.
By 2012, under half of Canadians consider themselves centrists on the political ideology scale. Fully one in ve identify most with the conservative side of the continuum. 2010 2011 2012

How conservatives see themselves

How the general public sees conservatives

Party identification
2011 2012

Other 19% Green 6% New Democrat 22%

Conservative

33%

Other 22% Green 7%

Conservative

29%
Liberal 21%

Liberal 20%

New Democrat 20%

Party identification
LIBERALS CONSERVATIVES

NDP

Issues of most concern

Economy/world economy/ crisis Money/income/paying bills/ aord home Personal health/health problems/seniors care (Un)employment/jobs/nding a job

13% 13% 9% 8%

Govt performance rating

The Conservative government is given credit for its ability to deal with the economy which is Canadians top concern.

Economy/world economy/crisis Personal health/health problems/ seniors' care Unemployment/jobs/nding a job Money/income/paying bills/aord home

5.03 4.42 4.03 3.41

How to improve health care

Canadians support Conservative government direction on health care

Give more freedom to the provinces

Give more direction to the provinces

34%

66%

Increasing health care transfers

From increased taxes

32%

From other sources than taxpayers such as users and private investors

58%

Closer govt oversight?

American-Financed Environmental Groups
Disagree 10%

Multinationals
Disagree 13%

Neutral 21%

69%

Agree

Neutral 20%

67%

Agree

Government as facilitator
Canadians have lost faith in big government solutions and believe that it should act as a facilitator instead.
Very negative 6% Very positive

Somewhat negative 16%

14%

Somewhat positive

64%

Government as facilitator

BC: 66% AB: 68%

PR: 78% ON: 78%

QC: 82%

AC: 74%

Government as facilitator
81%

Positive change

76%

Men

Women

Sobering news

Feeling toward politicians

1% 21% 50% 27%
Winter 2012 Spring 1992* Spring 1986* Spring 1984* Spring 1982* Summer 1980* Very favourable No opinion Very unfavourable Somewhat favourable Somewhat unfavourable
*Data courtesy of Harris-Decima.

Feeling toward business people

11% 63% 22% 4%
Winter 2012 Spring 1992* Spring 1987* Spring 1985* Spring 1983* Summer 1980* Very favourable No opinion Very unfavourable Somewhat favourable Somewhat unfavourable
*Data courtesy of Harris-Decima.

Politicians: principled or unprincipled?

Winter 2012

42%

58%

Spring 1980*

63%

10%

28%

Principled

No opinion

Unprincipled

Politicians: more concerned with money or people?

Winter 2012

90%

10%

Spring 1980*

53%

10%

37%

More concerned with money No opinion More concerned with people

Government performance rating

Confronting challenges of an aging Spending taxpayers' money wisely Dealing with moral issues Helping the less fortunate Finding solutions to environmental Meeting tomorrow's economic Improving the lives of Aboriginals in Creating jobs for Canadians Promoting innovation Providing quality health care for Protecting individual rights Keeping our country safe

72% 71% 67% 67% 60% 56% 56% 54% 53% 52% 42% 21% 79%

28% 29% 33% 33% 40% 44% 44% 46% 47% 48% 58% "good/very good job"

"poor/very poor job"

Opportunities

Govt could improve its communications

Winter 2012

30%

70%

Summer 1988*

36%

10%

53%

Winter 1987*

27%

9%

63%

Winter 1986*

25%

10%

64% Poor job

Good job

Both/Depends

Where do Canadians get their political information?

Television Internet in general Local newspapers National newspapers Social media Websites Family 2% 3% 3% 9% 13% 18% 45%

Which media sources do they trust the most?

Television National newspapers Local newspapers Friends and family Radio People I know Websites Internet Social media 4.08 4.06 6.49 6.43 6.35 6.34 6.29 5.79 5.22

Near-customers
Near Customers are voters whose demographic characteristics, current interest and past voting habits should predispose them to support conservativelyoriented candidates and parties but do not consistently do so.

Who are they?

Between the ages of 41 and 50 High School or College Educated Make between $20 - $50K / year A significant group (21%) has been in Canada only between 4 and 8 years Even more likely than others to be self-reliant or turn to their families to find solutions to their problems. Fully one-third did not vote in the last federal election 58% are interested in politics (only 14% have no interest in politics) Tend to equate being a conservative to being slow to embrace change

Youth issues
Money/income/paying bills/aord home Education/cost of education/funding

13% 4% 8% 15% 12%

21%

(Un)employment/jobs/nding a job

Young Canadians Overall

Economy/world economy/crisis

9% 7% 7%

13%

Finances/stability/debt

Positive news
Canadians continue to move slowly but surely to the right of the political spectrum The Conservative government is given credit for its ability to deal with the economy which is Canadians top concern. Canadians support Conservative government direction on health care Canadians have lost faith in big government solutions and believe that it should act as a facilitator instead.

Sobering news for conservatives

Politicians image continues to deteriorate.

Opportunities for conservatives

Government needs to better communicate its plans Potential support among near-customers

Electoral results

Conservative seat share

(provincial + federal) 2011 2012

47%
481/1023
total seats

48.9%
501/1024
total seats

Conservative vote share

(provincial + federal) 2011 2012

36.9%
9.9M votes

37.7%
10.1M votes

Elections since May 2011

(conservative seats gained and lost)

YK: +1

MB: NO CHANGE ON: +12 NL: -6 PEI: +2

SK: +11

Current provincial elections

Toronto Federal 2008

Toronto Federal 2011

Toronto Provincial 2007

Toronto Provincial 2011

Toronto Municipal 2010

Vancouver and Lower Mainland Federal 2008

Vancouver and Lower Mainland Federal 2011

Urban greens

New Canadians

Bread-and-butter

Vancouver Federal 2011

Chinese Canadian population

Vancouver Federal 2011

Bread-and-butter Canadians

Conservative infrastructure

Manning Centre

Investment (2010)
Parties

$64.3M
Movement

$30.4M

Investment
American conservative movement

Canadian legislatures & elections

~$3B

$1.25B

Intellectual strengths and weaknesses

Survey of business executives

In what subjects policy areas do you think our elected officials most need strengthening intellectually? Elected officials/politicians do not understand the impacts of their words and actions, or their failures to speak and act, on the economy and the operations of business. Need: specialized training on Navigating the Business-Economy Interface

Survey of business executives

In what skill areas (e.g. decision-making, communicating , legislating etc.) do you think our elected officials most need strengthening? Politicians and political staff frequently lack the ability: To form networks of associates and advisors to round out knowledge; To interpret and evaluate any advice received To integrate advice from diverse quarters and bring it to bear on issue or decision at hand. Need: course or training on The formation and use of advisory networks.

Training

Clayton H. Riddell Masters in Political Management Carleton University

Inaugural Year 2011-2012 25 students every year Four full-time professors & adjunct faculty In the process of admitting second cohort www.carleton.ca/politicalmanagement

Courses
Student Activism Political Fundraising and Investment Issue Campaigns Municipal/Provincial/Federal Election Campaigns Building & Managing a Grassroots Organization Navigating critical socio-political intersections: Business-Politics Faith-Politics Economy-Environment

Communications

Conservative blogs
Small Dead Animals Stephentaylor.ca Blue Like You Ezralevant.com Dr. Roy's Thoughts BC Blue AToryO1

Manning Centre

The State of the Conservative Movement