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CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For release: Monday, March 12, 2012 6:30 pm (ET)

The Republican Nomination: Santorum and Romney in a Close Race March 7-11, 2012 Nationally, Rick Santorum remains just ahead of Mitt Romney in Republican primary voters preference for the Republican presidential nomination. Santorums 4-point lead is within the polls margin of error. Still, 73% of primary voters expect Romney to be the eventual Republican nominee. 36% of Republican primary voters say Romneys views on the issues are not conservative enough; the highest percentage of any of the four candidates. 52% say his ideological views are about right, but more -- 66% -- say that about Santorums views. Nationally, Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney are locked in a close race for the Republican nomination: 34% of Republican primary voters support Santorum and 30% back Romney. Santorums small lead is within the polls margin of error. Romney and Santorum have each won contests held in the past week. 13% now choose Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul receives the support of 8% of Republican primary voters. 2012 Republican Nomination for President (among Republican primary voters) Now 2/2012 Rick Santorum 34% 30% Mitt Romney 30 27 Newt Gingrich 13 10 Ron Paul 8 12 About half of Republican primary voters nationwide say they could still change their minds about whom to support but that percentage has dropped from 60% a month ago. While there is still room for change in the race, fluidity has decreased as more primary voters have become sure of their candidate choice. Mind Made Up Whom to Support? (among Republican primary voters with a candidate choice) Now 2/2012 Yes 49% 39% Too early 50 60

But by a wide and increasing -- margin, most of these voters expect Mitt Romney to be the eventual Republican nominee. Expect to Win Nomination (among Republican primary voters) Now Mitt Romney 73% Rick Santorum 10 Newt Gingrich 4 Ron Paul 3 Candidate Qualities As has been the case throughout much of this campaign, Romney is seen as the candidate who has the best chance of defeating President Obama in November; he beats Santorum by 40 points on this measure. Even among white evangelicals, some of Santorums strongest supporters, Romney is the candidate they think has the best chance of beating President Obama in the fall. On the other hand, Santorum is viewed by Republican voters, especially evangelicals, as the candidate who best represents their values. Candidate Qualities (among Republican primary voters) Beat Represents Obama Values 57% 25% 17 47 9 7 4 12

1/2012 55% 7 9 4

Mitt Romney Rick Santorum Newt Gingrich Ron Paul

Mitt Romney has been criticized by his opponents as not being a real conservative, and in this poll, 36% of Republican primary voters say his views on the issues are not conservative enough; the highest percentage of any of the four candidates. While more than half do say Romneys ideological views are about right, more -- 66% -- say Santorums views are about right. is Views on Most Issues are (among Republican primary voters) Too Not conservative conservative enough Rick Santorum 16% 11 Newt Gingrich 9% 26 Mitt Romney 5% 36 Ron Paul 17% 33

About right 66 57 52 39

Most Republican primary voters say each of the candidates understands their needs and problems, but Santorum scores highest on this measure.

Understands Problems of People Like You? (among Republican primary voters) Yes No Rick Santorum 69% 20 Newt Gingrich 60% 31 Mitt Romney 55% 40 Ron Paul 54% 34 Republican primary voters have at least some confidence in each of the candidates to be an effective commander-in-chief -- except Ron Paul. 38% are very confident in Gingrichs ability to be an effective commander-in-chief, the highest of any candidate. Confidence in Ability to Be Commander-in-Chief (among Republican primary voters) Very ` Somewhat Not too/not at all Newt Gingrich 38% 34 26 Mitt Romney 29% 46 23 Rick Santorum 24% 48 23 Ron Paul 9% 22 60 When asked which candidate quality is most important in deciding their support, Republican primary voters pick strong moral character (from a list of four qualities), followed by having the right experience, someone who can defeat President Obama, and being a true conservative. Most Important Candidate Quality (among Republican primary voters) Now 2/2012 Strong moral character 34% 34% Right experience 24 22 Can defeat Obama 19 19 True conservative 18 22 Voters looking for strong moral character or a true conservative back Santorum for the nomination, while those who value experience or electability are more likely to support Romney. The Candidates on Health Care and the Economy Mitt Romney has been attacked by his rivals for the Massachusetts health care plan he signed into law as Governor. While most Republican primary voters (68%) are at least somewhat confident that Romney would make the right decisions on health care, just 17% are very confident the lowest among the four candidates. Womens and mens views on this measure are similar. Confidence in Ability to Make Decisions on Health Care (among Republican primary voters) Very ` Somewhat Not too/not at all Rick Santorum 33% 46 17 Newt Gingrich 28% 43 25 Ron Paul 19% 35 37 Mitt Romney 17% 51 31

When Republican voters are asked how much confidence they have in each of the candidates to make the right decisions about the economy, majorities have at least some confidence in each but are most confident in Romney. More than eight in 10 are confident in Romneys ability to handle the economy, including 33% who are very confident. Confidence in His Ability to Manage Economy (among Republican primary voters) Very ` Somewhat Not too/not at all Mitt Romney 33% 49 18 Newt Gingrich 31% 38 29 Rick Santorum 22% 53 22 Ron Paul 18% 34 41 Americans continue to see the economy and jobs as the most pressing problem facing the country, and Republican primary voters are no different: 48% of them volunteer that as their top concern, far ahead of any other issue. Most Important Problem (among Republican primary voters) Economy and jobs 48% Moral/family values 9 Debt/Deficit 6 But Republican voters who volunteer the issue of the economy and jobs divide on whether the candidates are paying enough attention to it, or not. Candidates Paying Enough Attention to Economy and Jobs (among Republican primary voters who pick the economy & jobs as top problem) Yes 44% No 42 Some are/some not (vol.) 11 When Republican primary voters are asked directly which matters more in deciding on a candidate, 67% choose economic issues, while only 25% pick social issues. Voter Groups The dynamics of the race have not changed since last month. Conservatives remain solidly behind Santorum, who receives far more support from this group than Romney does. Romney receives support from more moderate Republican primary voters, although Santorums support among moderates has risen since last month. Evangelicals have been strong supporters of Santorum in the nominating contests held so far, and in this poll Santorum leads Romney by more than two to one among evangelicals. Santorum also leads among Tea Party supporters. Gingrich and Romney are tied for second place among Tea Partiers. Women are backing Santorum, while men choose Romney.

Conservatives Moderates Tea party Non-Tea party W. Evangelicals Men Women

2012 Republican Nomination for President (among Republican primary voters) Santorum Romney Gingrich 43% 24 14 25% 41 11 40% 26% 48% 27% 41% 21 38 22 32 27 21 6 15 13 13

Paul 7 11 9 8 6 10 6

Attention and Enthusiasm As the race for the presidency heats up, more voters are watching. Four in five registered voters overall are paying attention to the campaign, including 44% who are paying a lot of attention. Last month, 35% were paying a lot of attention. Attention to the Campaign (among registered voters) Now 2/2012 A lot 44% 35% Some 37 44 Not much/not at all 18 20 Republicans (49%) are paying more attention to the campaign than Democrats (40%). 29% of voters are more enthusiastic about this election compared to past elections, but that doesnt match the level of enthusiasm voters expressed about the 2008 campaigns. In March 2008, 41% said they were more enthusiastic than they had been in the past. Republicans with a close race for their partys nomination -- are more enthusiastic than Democrats about the race. Enthusiasm Compared to Past Elections (among registered voters) All Reps Dems Inds More enthusiastic 29% 36% 30% 22% Less enthusiastic 27 22 30 29 Same 43 43 39 47

3/2008 41% 23 35

_________________________________________________________________________ This poll was conducted by telephone from March 7-11, 2012 among 1009 adults nationwide. 878 interviews were conducted with registered voters, including 301 with voters who said they plan to vote in a Republican primary. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of registered voters could be plus or minus three points and six points for the sample of Republican primary voters. The error for subgroups may be higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

CBS NEWS/NY TIMES NATIONAL POLL The Republican Nomination: Santorum and Romney in a Close Race March 7-11, 2012 q1-q2 SEPARATE RELEASE q3 What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? ****** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ****** Total Rep. Primary Voters % % 51 48 5 6 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 9 2 0 2 0 2 1 22 27 4 1

Economy & Jobs Budget Deficit/National Debt Miscellaneous Social Issue Health Care Fuel Costs Moral values/family values Poverty/Homelessness Education Politicians/Government Other DK/NA

Jan12a % 55 4 2 2 0 2 1 2 5 24 3

q4 Regardless of how you intend to vote, do you think the presidential candidates have been paying enough attention to the problem you just mentioned or haven't they? *RESPONDENTS WHO CHOOSE ECONOMY & JOBS IN Q3* Yes 30 44 No 59 42 Some are/some are not (vol.) 7 11 Don't know/No answer 4 3 q5-q14 SEPARATE RELEASE attn How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2012 presidential campaign -- a lot, some, not much, or no attention so far? *** REGISTERED VOTERS *** 44 55 37 35 15 10 3 0 0 0 Feb12a 35 44 14 6 1

A lot Some Not much None DK/NA

q15 Who would you like to see the Republican party nominate as its presidential candidate in 2012 -- Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum? Rick Santorum Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Ron Paul Someone Else (vol.) Undecided (Vol.) DK/NA 34 30 13 8 4 9 2 30 27 12 10 6 12 3

q16 Is your mind made up or is it still too early to say for sure?

Mind made up Still too early DK/NA

*REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS W/CHOICE* % 49 50 2

Feb12a % 39 60 1

q17 Which of these best describes your preference for the Republican nomination for President in 2012: 1) I strongly favor my candidate, 2) I like my candidate but with reservations, or 3) I dislike the other candidates? Strongly favor Like with reservations Dislike others DK/NA 27 56 14 3 26 53 17 4

q18 Regardless of who you support, who do you expect to finally win the Republican nomination for President in 2012 -- Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum? *REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS* 73 10 4 3 NA NA 0 10

Mitt Romney Rick Santorum Newt Gingrich Ron Paul Rick Perry Jon Huntsman Someone else (vol.) Don't know/No answer

55 7 9 4 3 2 0 10

q19 Compared to past Presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in the 2012 Presidential election - are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? ********** REGISTERED VOTERS ********** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind RPVs % % % % % 29 36 30 22 40 27 22 30 29 18 43 43 39 47 40 1 0 1 2 2

More Less Same Don't know/No answer q20-q30 SEPARATE RELEASE

Feb12a % 31 28 39 2

q31 Which one of these candidate qualities is most important in deciding who to support for the Republican nomination? 1. He is a true conservative, 2. He has strong moral character, 3. He can defeat Barack Obama, or 4. He has the right experience? *REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS* % 34 24 19 18 5 Feb12a % 34 22 19 22 3

Has strong moral character Has the right experience Can defeat Barack Obama A true conservative DK/NA

q32 Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2012, which one of these candidates do you think has the best chance of beating Barack Obama in the general election in November 2012 -- Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum? *REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS* % 57 17 9 4 3 3 7 Feb12a % 55 14 15 3 1 3 9

Mitt Romney Rick Santorum Newt Gingrich Ron Paul All of them (Vol.) None of them (Vol.) DK/NA

q33 Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2012, which one of these candidates do you think most represents the values you try to live by--Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum? Rick Santorum Mitt Romney Ron Paul Newt Gingrich All of them (Vol.) None of them (Vol.) DK/NA 47 25 12 7 0 4 5 32 19 18 18 0 3 10 candidate on social

q36 Which of the following matters more to you in deciding which presidential to support--the candidate's views on economic issues or the candidate's views issues? ****** REGISTERED VOTERS ****** Total Rep. Primary Voters % % Economic issues 66 67 Social issues 22 25 Both (Vol.) 10 7 Don't know/No answer 2 1 q37-q44 SEPARATE RELEASE

Feb12a % 66 22 9 3

q45 Do you think Newt Gingrich does or does not understand the needs and problems of people like yourself? Yes No DK/NA q46 BLANK q47 How confident are you in Newt Gingrich's ability to make the right decisions about the economy - are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident DK/NA 13 29 23 31 4 31 38 15 14 2 11 24 20 39 6 33 57 10 60 31 9 30 58 12

q48 How confident are you in Newt Gingrich's ability to make the right decisions about health care - are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? ****** REGISTERED VOTERS ****** Total Rep. Primary Voters % % 13 28 28 43 23 10 33 15 3 4

Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident DK/NA

q49 How confident are you in Newt Gingrichs ability to be an effective commander-inchief of the nations military are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident DK/NA 17 26 21 31 5 38 34 14 12 2

q50 Do you think Newt Gingrich's views on most issues are too conservative for you, not conservative enough, or just about right? Feb12a % 39 17 29 15

Too conservative Not conservative enough About right DK/NA q51 BLANK

32 22 32 14

9 26 57 7

q52 Do you think Ron Paul does or does not understand the needs and problems of people like yourself? Yes No DK/NA q53 BLANK q54 How confident are you in Ron Paul's ability to make the right decisions about the economy - are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident DK/NA 13 32 23 23 9 18 34 25 16 6 11 31 24 22 12 43 38 19 54 34 12 47 33 20

q55 How confident are you in Ron Paul's ability to make the right decisions about health care - are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? ****** REGISTERED VOTERS ****** Total Rep. Primary Voters % % 13 19 28 35 23 20 25 17 11 9

Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident DK/NA

q56 How confident are you in Ron Pauls ability to be an effective commander-in-chief of the nations military are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident DK/NA 8 23 27 32 10 9 22 25 35 9

q57 Do you think Ron Paul's views on most issues are too conservative for you, not conservative enough, or just about right? Feb12a % 28 15 36 21

Too conservative Not conservative enough About right DK/NA q58 BLANK

26 21 36 17

17 33 39 11

q59 Do you think Mitt Romney does or does not understand the needs and problems of people like yourself? Yes No DK/NA q60 BLANK q61 How confident are you in Mitt Romney's ability to make the right decisions about the economy - are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident DK/NA 16 34 21 24 5 33 49 12 6 1 12 31 21 29 7 31 59 10 55 40 5 31 58 11

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q62 How confident are you in Mitt Romney's ability to make the right decisions about health care - are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? ****** REGISTERED VOTERS ****** Total Rep. Primary Voters % % 8 17 36 51 26 18 26 13 4 1

Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident DK/NA

q63 How confident are you in Mitt Romneys ability to be an effective commander-in-chief of the nations military are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident DK/NA 14 34 22 25 5 29 46 17 6 2

q64 Do you think Mitt Romney's views on most issues are too conservative for you, not conservative enough, or just about right? Feb12a % 32 21 32 15

Too conservative Not conservative enough About right DK/NA q65 BLANK

26 24 36 14

5 36 52 7

q66 Do you think Rick Santorum does or does not understand the needs and problems of people like yourself? Yes No DK/NA q67 BLANK q68 How confident are you in Rick Santorum's ability to make the right decisions about the economy - are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident DK/NA 12 36 22 23 7 22 53 18 4 3 11 29 20 25 15 40 44 16 69 20 11 37 37 26

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q69 How confident are you in Rick Santorum's ability to make the right decisions about health care - are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? ****** REGISTERED VOTERS ****** Total Rep. Primary Voters % % 16 33 29 46 20 11 28 6 7 4

Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident DK/NA

q70 How confident are you in Rick Santorums ability to be an effective commander-inchief of the nations military are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident DK/NA 13 30 20 28 9 24 48 16 7 5

q71 Do you think Rick Santorum's views on most issues are too conservative for you, not conservative enough, or just about right? Feb12a % 33 9 35 23

Too conservative Not conservative enough About right DK/NA

36 12 39 13

16 11 66 7

Total Respondents Total Republicans Total Democrats Total Independents Total Registered Voters Reg. Voters Republicans Reg. Voters Democrats Reg. Voters Independents Republican Primary Voters

UNWEIGHTED 1,009 284 329 396 878 268 296 314 301

WEIGHTED

263 (26%) 304 (30%) 442 (44%) 772 240 (31%) 263 (34%) 270 (35%) 260

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