CBS News/New York Times Poll For release: March 12, 2012 6:30 PM ET

The November Election, The President, and the Economy March 7-11, 2012

Rising gas prices may be weighing on President Obamas approval ratings: after topping off at 50% approval just last month, his rating has dipped to 41% today, the lowest of his presidency. 47% now disapprove. As has historically been the case, a majority of Americans (54%) believes a President can do a lot to control gas prices. In November matchups, President Obama maintains his lead among registered voters over all would-be Republican challengers - by three points over Mitt Romney and four over Rick Santorum but those gaps have narrowed, coinciding with the dip in Obamas approval. Part of Barack Obamas advantage in those head-to-heads is being seen as understanding peoples needs and problems. 55% of registered voters say he does but only 31% think Mitt Romney does. 40% say Rick Santorum does. Americans divide over whether the U.S. should get involved in any military conflict between Israel and Iran over nuclear weapons. 47% want the U.S. to support Israel in any action it might take; 42% dont want to get involved.

Rising gas prices may be taking a bite out of Americans wallets, and perhaps a toll on President Obamas approval ratings. Though his approval rating reached 50% last month for the first time since the killing of Osama bin Laden last May, it has now plunged nine points to an alltime low of 41%. President Obamas Overall Job Rating 2/2012 12/2011 11/2011 50% 47% 43% 43 44 47

Approve Disapprove

Now 41% 47

5/2011 57% 37

1/2011 49% 39

Most Americans believe gas prices are something a President can do a lot about 54% say so. Whether correct or not, Americans have historically felt this way about a Presidents control over gas prices. They also felt this way when gas prices spiked during the administration of former President George W. Bush. Are Gas Prices Something a President Can do a lot About? 2/2012 3/2011 7/2008 5/2006 54% 50% 65% 63% 34 41 29 30

Yes No

Now 54% 36

5/2004 58% 33

Continued attacks from the Republicans running to replace President Obama may be having an impact, too. His disapproval rating has risen to 89% among Republicans (from 82% last month), and now more independents disapprove of his job performance than approve that was not the case last month. And though his approval rating among Democrats remains high, it has dropped seven points from 85% last month to 78% today. President Obamas Overall Job Rating Total Reps Dems Inds Approve 41% 5% 78% 37% Disapprove 47 89 15 45 President Obamas job rating on the economy remains about the same as it was last month 39% approve and 54% disapprove but his rating on foreign policy has dropped significantly. Now, just 40% approve of his handling of foreign policy a drop of 10 points from last month while 41% disapprove. This is the first time since the killing of Osama bin Laden in May 2011 that more Americans disapprove than approve of the job Barack Obama is doing handling foreign policy. President Obamas Job Ratings Foreign Policy The Economy Now 2/2012 Now 2/2012 Approve 40% 50% 39% 44% Disapprove 41 36 54 50

Looking Ahead to November Barack Obama maintains his lead over all the Republican hopefuls in hypothetical general election matchups, but the gap has narrowed -- reflective, perhaps, of the Presidents drop in approval ratings this week. Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum run closest to the incumbent President, three and four points back, respectively. The President maintains a commanding lead if the Republican nominee were Newt Gingrich or Ron Paul. Who Would You Vote For in November if the Candidates Were? (Among registered voters) Now 2/13/2012 1/18/2012 Barack Obama 47% 48% 45% Mitt Romney 44 42 45 Barack Obama Rick Santorum Barack Obama Ron Paul Barack Obama Newt Gingrich 48% 44 49 39 52 38 49% 41 50% 39 54% 36 49% 38 46% 42 50% 39

Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich have all improved their standings with independents compared to last month with Romney making the most gains. Ron Pauls standing among independents has dropped slightly. Who Would You Vote For in November if the Candidates Were? (Among independent voters) Now 2/13/2012 1/18/2012 Barack Obama 45% 46% 38% Mitt Romney 43 37 46 Barack Obama Rick Santorum Barack Obama Ron Paul Barack Obama Newt Gingrich 45% 42 46% 36 50% 35 46% 39 44% 40 51% 32 45% 36 39% 49 46% 38

In 2008, Barack Obama won the womens vote, as Democrats often do in Presidential elections. (He won the mens vote too.) So far this year there has been a lot of focus on issues of concern to women. Now, Barack Obama has a lead against all Republican challengers among women voters. Among men, both Romney and Santorum have wide leads over the President. Gender Gap: Who Would You Vote For in November if Candidates Were? (Among registered voters) Women Men Barack Obama 50% 44% Mitt Romney 39 50 Barack Obama Rick Santorum Barack Obama Ron Paul Barack Obama Newt Gingrich 50% 40 49% 38 54% 34 45% 50 49% 40 51% 43

Views of the Candidates Opinions of the candidates including President Obama are mixed. An equal percentage of voters have a favorable opinion of Barack Obama as an unfavorable one. The same is true for Rick Santorum, though more than a third hasnt formed an opinion yet. Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, and Newt Gingrich all have net unfavorable ratings. Views have changed little since last month.

Barack Obama Rick Santorum Mitt Romney Ron Paul Newt Gingrich

Views of the Presidential Candidates (Among registered voters) Favorable Not favorable Dont Know/Havent heard 41% 41 17 32% 30% 23% 18% 32 37 33 51 35 31 43 31

Women voters have a more favorable view of Obama (44%) than men do (38%) but this is reversed for all the Republican candidates, each of whom get more favorable views from men than women. Only 28% of women have a favorable view of Mitt Romney, compared to 33% of men; Santorum gets 31% favorable from women and 32% from men. Obama's personal favorability ratings are even among independents (37% favorable and 37% unfavorable) but Romney and Santorum are net negative with independents: Each of them gets 27% favorable ratings and 34% unfavorable from independents. Barack Obama has a clear advantage among registered voters on his perceived ability to understand voters needs and problems. 55% think he does, including 86% of Democrats and over half of independents (most Republicans think he does not.) Among the Republican candidates, Ron Paul fares best on this measure. Mitt Romney fares the worst: Six in 10 registered voters do not think he understands their problems, including more than a third of Republicans. Do They Understand Your Needs and Problems? (Among registered voters) Yes No Barack Obama 55% 42 Ron Paul Rick Santorum Newt Gingrich Mitt Romney 43% 40% 33% 31% 38 44 57 59

Iran Americans are split on President Obamas handling of the situation in Iran: 42% approve while nearly as many 39% - disapprove, and 19% dont know. Most Republicans disapprove and most Democrats approve, while independents are divided. President Obamas Job Rating on Iran Total Reps Dems Inds Approve 42% 15% 63% 42% Disapprove 39 65 20 36 Dont know 19 20 17 22

There has been speculation that Israel might be considering an attack on Iran to try to stop its nuclear weapons program. If Israel did so, Americans by a slim margin say the U.S. should support that military effort. Partisans divide on this, though: Republicans overwhelming would want the U.S. to be involved, but Democrats and independents would not. If Israel Attacks Iran, What Should U.S. Do? All Reps Dems Inds Support Israel 47% 72% 38% 39% Not get involved 42 22 55 44 In general, more Americans favor than oppose the idea of the U.S. taking military action against Iran to prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon. There are also partisan divides on this, too -- Republicans are strongly in favor, and Democrats are mainly opposed. Favor or Oppose U.S. Military Action Against Iran to Prevent Nuclear Weapons? All Reps Dems Inds Support 51% 66% 40% 51% Oppose 36 24 50 34 Unsure 13 10 10 15

The Economy The economy and jobs remains the most important problem facing the country today, volunteered by 51% of Americans. Three in four Americans think the economy is at least somewhat bad including 30% who say it is very bad. Condition of the Economy Now 2/2012 Very good 1% 1% Fairly good 21 22 Fairly bad 45 46 Very bad 30 29 The percentage that says the economy is getting better has declined slightly from last month, though more still think it is getting better than getting worse. 30% of Americans think the economy is getting better, while 24% think it is getting worse, and 44% think it is staying about the same. Direction of the Economy Now 2/2012 Getting better 30% 34% Getting worse 24 22 The same 44 43

Just 20% of Americans feel their familys financial situation is better today than it was four years ago. 37% say it is worse, and 43% say it is about the same. Familys Financial Situation Vs. Four Years Ago Better today 20% Worse today 37 About the same 43

Coverage of Birth Control The poll asked Americans to weigh in on whether the government should mandate coverage of birth control by employers. 51% think there should be an exception for all employers if they have moral or religious objections 40% think there should not. The number that supports allowing employers to opt out rises to 57% for institutions that have a specific religious affiliation, such as a school or a hospital.

Employers and Birth Control Coverage All Employers Religiously Affiliated Employers Should have to cover 40% 36% Allowed to opt out for religious/moral reasons 51 57 But when it comes to how they view the issue, a slight majority of 51% of Americans think this issue is more about womens health and their rights, while just 37% think it is more about religious freedoms. Which side of the debate one is on affects how one sees the issue: a slight majority of those who think employers should be able to opt out for religious or moral issues see the issue more in terms of religious freedoms, while three in four who think coverage should be mandatory see the issue as about womens health and rights. Is the Birth Control Coverage Issue More About? All All Employers Should Respondents Cover birth control Be allowed to opt out Religious freedoms 37% 18% 53% Womens health and rights 51 76 32
_________________________________________________________________________ This poll was conducted by telephone from March 7-11, 2012 among 1009 adults nationwide. 878 interviews were conducted with registered voters, including 301 with voters who said they plan to vote in a Republican primary. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of registered voters could be plus or minus three points and six points for the sample of Republican primary voters. The error for subgroups may be higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL The November Election, the President and the Economy March 7-11, 2012 q1 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 41 5 78 37 47 89 15 45 12 6 7 18

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

Feb12a % 50 43 7

q2 Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Right direction Wrong track DK/NA q3-4 SEPARATE RELEASE q5 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling foreign policy? Approve Disapprove DK/NA 40 41 19 9 76 15 66 17 17 40 37 23 50 36 14 29 63 8 6 91 3 56 41 3 25 63 12 35 59 6

q6 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy? Approve Disapprove DK/NA 39 54 7 8 87 5 72 24 4 36 55 9 44 50 6

q7 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the situation with Iran? Approve Disapprove DK/NA q8-9 BLANK q10 How would you rate the condition of the national economy these days? Is it very good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad? Very good Fairly good Fairly bad Very bad DK/NA 1 21 45 30 3 0 8 52 39 1 2 36 41 20 1 1 20 43 33 3 1 22 46 29 2 42 39 19 15 65 20 63 20 17 42 36 22

q11 Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 30 9 48 30 24 33 17 23 44 56 33 45 2 2 2 2

Better Worse Same DK/NA q13-19 SEPARATE RELEASE

Feb12a % 34 22 43 1

q20 If the 2012 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Newt Gingrich, the Republican, would you vote for Barack Obama or Newt Gingrich? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** 15 90 50 75 7 35 1 0 0 6 1 5 2 0 1 1 2 9

Obama Gingrich Other (Vol.) Won't vote (Vol.) Depends (Vol.) Don't know/No answer

52 38 0 4 1 5

54 36 5 1 4 0

q21 If the 2012 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Ron Paul, the Republican, would you vote for Barack Obama or Ron Paul? Obama Paul Other (Vol.) Won't vote (Vol.) Depends (Vol.) Don't know/No answer 49 39 0 3 2 7 11 74 1 4 3 7 87 9 0 1 0 3 46 36 0 5 2 11 50 39 0 4 1 6

q22 If the 2012 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Mitt Romney, the Republican, would you vote for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Obama Romney Other (Vol.) Won't vote (Vol.) Depends (Vol.) Don't know/No answer 47 44 1 2 1 5 4 84 1 4 2 5 88 8 0 1 0 3 45 43 0 2 2 8 48 42 0 4 1 5

q23 If the 2012 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Rick Santorum, the Republican, would you vote for Barack Obama or Rick Santorum? Obama Santorum Other (Vol.) Won't vote (Vol.) Depends (Vol.) Don't know/No answer 48 44 1 1 1 5 4 88 2 1 1 4 90 8 0 1 0 1 45 42 0 2 2 9 49 41 0 2 0 8

q24 Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Barack Obama yet to have an opinion? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 41 7 76 37 41 80 10 37 14 9 11 21 3 4 2 2 1 0 1 3

Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused

Feb12a % 45 41 11 2 1

q25 Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Newt Gingrich yet to have an opinion? Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused 18 51 19 12 0 32 32 26 10 0 7 66 13 14 0 17 53 18 11 1 16 54 16 13 1

q26 Is your opinion of Ron Paul favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Ron Paul yet to have an opinion? Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused 23 33 19 24 1 24 31 22 22 1 18 38 17 26 1 27 29 18 25 1 24 33 21 21 1

q27 Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Mitt Romney yet to have an opinion? Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused 30 37 20 11 2 52 15 24 9 0 13 61 11 13 2 27 34 26 12 1 26 40 20 13 1

q28 Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Rick Santorum yet to have an opinion? Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused q29-38 SEPARATE RELEASE 32 32 16 19 1 59 7 17 17 0 11 54 10 24 1 27 34 21 17 1 27 25 15 33 0

q39 Do you think Barack Obama does or does not understand the needs and problems of people like yourself? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 55 24 86 52 42 71 13 43 3 5 1 5

Yes No DK/NA q40 BLANK

Feb12a % 54 42 4

q41 How confident are you in Barak Obama's ability to make the right decisions about the economy - are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Feb09b 29 44 16 10 1

Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident DK/NA

18 31 21 30 0

0 7 31 60 2

41 46 7 5 1

11 36 25 26 2

q42 How confident are you in Barak Obama's ability to make the right decisions about health care - are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Oct08d 36 33 13 16 2

Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident DK/NA

21 23 16 38 2

0 5 17 75 3

45 36 12 7 0

17 27 19 36 1

q43 How confident are you in Barack Obamas ability to be an effective commander-in-chief of the nations military are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident DK/NA q44 BLANK q45 Do you think Newt Gingrich does or does not understand the needs and problems of people like yourself? Feb12a 30 58 12 30 28 16 25 1 3 20 27 49 1 57 31 7 5 0 28 32 16 24 0

Yes No DK/NA q47-Q51 SEPARATE RELEASE

33 57 10

55 34 11

16 75 9

29 60 11

q52 Do you think Ron Paul does or does not understand the needs and problems of people like yourself? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 43 55 31 45 38 31 48 35 19 14 21 20

Yes No DK/NA q53-Q58 SEPARATE RELEASE

Feb12a % 47 33 20

q59 Do you think Mitt Romney does or does not understand the needs and problems of people like yourself? Yes No DK/NA q60-q65 SEPARATE RELEASE q66 Do you think Rick Santorum does or does not understand the needs and problems of people like yourself? Yes No DK/NA q67-q72 SEPARATE RELEASE q73 Do you think health insurance plans for all employers should have to cover the full cost of birth control for their female employees, or should employers be allowed to opt out of covering that based on religious or moral objections? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 40 19 59 41 51 75 32 50 3 2 4 4 6 4 5 5 40 44 16 71 17 12 15 71 14 36 41 23 37 37 26 31 59 10 54 38 8 13 80 7 29 59 12 31 58 11

Cover birth control Allowed to opt out Depends (Vol.) Don't know/No answer

q74 What about for religiously affiliated employers, such as a hospital or university? Do you think their health insurance plans should have to cover the full costs of birth control for their female employees, or should they be allowed to opt out of covering that based on religious or moral objections? Cover birth control Allowed to opt out Depends (Vol.) DK/NA q75 BLANK 36 57 2 5 18 78 0 4 53 38 4 5 35 57 2 6

q76 Do you think this issue is more about religious freedom or more about women's health and their rights? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 37 55 23 36 51 30 72 49 6 6 2 8 6 9 3 7

Religious freedom Women's health/rights Both (vol) DK/NA

q77 Is the price of gasoline something a president can do a lot about, or is that beyond any president's control? ** PARTIAL RESPONDENTS ** 54 69 42 53 36 22 46 38 10 9 12 9 among 595 respondents.

Yes, can do a lot No, beyond president's con DK/NA *Asked only between 3/10-3/11 q78 BLANK

q79 Would you support or oppose the United States taking military action against Iran in order to prevent it from developing a nuclear weapons program? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** 66 40 51 24 50 34 10 10 15

Support Oppose Don't know/No answer

51 36 13

q80 What should the U.S. do if Israel were to attack Iran in order to prevent it from developing a nuclear weapons program? Should the U.S. support Israels military action, or should the U.S. not get involved? Support Not get involved Oppose (Vol.) Don't know/Refused q81-q85 HELD FOR RELEASE q86 Compared to four years ago, is your family's financial situation better today, worse today, or about the same? Better today Worse today About the same Don't know/No answer 20 37 43 0 14 42 42 2 22 34 43 1 21 35 44 0 47 42 1 10 72 22 0 6 38 55 1 6 39 44 1 16

Total Respondents Total Republicans Total Democrats Total Independents

UNWEIGHTED 1009 284 329 396

WEIGHTED

263 304 442