A Guide to Using Demographic Data to Reach People Table of Contents

Introduction Section 1 Measures of People Section 2 Targeted Evangelism Section 3 Demographic Descriptors Section 4 Oklahoma Oscar and Annie Appendix A Glossary of Demographic Terms Appendix B Update Methodology

Introduction
Jesus said to His disciples, open you eyes and look at the fields! They are ripe for harvest John 4:35b. All over Oklahoma, in church after church that has studied the demographics of their area, God has opened the eyes of the people to see the great number of unreached in their community. He has also used this information to motivate them to do something different to reach these people. Demographic information has been used to begin new evangelistic approaches, new ministries, new churches, new buildings, call new staff members, and more. In the past few years, God has made available to Oklahoma Baptists, in an unprecedented way, information about our communities and the people we are attempting to reach for Jesus Christ. He has been reclaiming tools and techniques for His use that have for too long been the domains only of business and government. Now we have direct access to demographic information that before was only available to large corporations and federal agencies. This unprecedented access has been made possible through Scan/US, a geodemographic software package developed by Lifeway Christian Resources in conjunction with Scan/US, Inc. of California. It has given state conventions and larger associations the ability to provide to their churches access to extremely large amounts of information specific to their geographic area. In fact, a significant problem has been how to sift through all this information suddenly available to us to find that which is most relevant to a church setting. We now have the responsibility to learn how to use this new information for His Glory. Weve learned a lot in the past few years, but in a way weve only scratched the surface. Also, the things weve learned need to be made available to others. This booklet is a way to do that. There is presently very little information like this in any organized form and much less directed at use by churches.

Measures of People
Demographic information is all about people. Its the study of people and the many characteristics that distinguish them one from another. Each person is unique. However, groups of individuals can share some common characteristics such as age, gender, race, income, education, family status, etc. So, groups of unique individuals can be described, in general, by certain measures of their common characteristics. God loves people and sent His Son to die for each individual person. He has perfect knowledge of each individual person. We dont. But, through the use of demographic information we can obtain a better understanding of those we are attempting to minister to and to reach for Jesus Christ. It will never replace a personal visit, but it can be a first step to a better understanding of those in your community. Since people are complicated, sometimes the study of people can be complicated. Demographics deals with numbers and statistics that attempt to describe the characteristics of the group of people being studied. However, with the use of todays computer technology these numbers can be simplified, summarized, analyzed, and charted such that anyone who wishes can use them to see trends and make decisions.

An important point to note is that demographics is the study of groups of people not about individual persons or households. For reasons of privacy the U.S. Census Bureau never releases individual information or any statistics that would allow information about individuals to be inferred. So, demographics is really the study of groups of people. These groups may be geographically as small as a few city blocks or as large as the state, nation, or world. The basic questions are how many, when, and where. 1. How Many? Demographics uses numbers and statistics to answer this question. Definitions of some of these are given in the text and in the Glossary of Terms in Appendix A. The question how many? is asked for everything from How many people are between the ages of 30 and 34? to How many vehicles do they own? The U.S. Census Bureau at the beginning of each new decade takes a census of the entire United States. The last census was in 2000 the next will be in the year 2010. The primary purpose of this census is to inform many political and governmental decisions, such as each states representation in Congress. Also, businesses more and more are using census data and demographic analysis to make decisions about products, new retail outlets, and much more. Churches also are beginning to see how this same information can be used to reach people for Christ. Thats the subject of this booklet. 2. When? Demographic numbers and statistics are all compiled as of a specific date. Its essential to know that date when comparing numbers. For example, comparing 2000 population figures with 2003 age groupings would be like comparing apples and oranges. But its also important to have statistics from different dates in order to see historical patterns as well as trends for the future. In between U.S. Census years estimates are made using sample data and approximations. Also, projections are made 5-years into the future. Scan/US uses estimates and projections made by Urban Decision Systems, Inc. which have proved to be very accurate over the years. See Appendix B for more details about how these estimates and projections are made. 3. Where? a) Study Area Before a demographic analysis can be made the study area must be defined. It can be an entire state, a county, zip code area, or any arbitrary area. For churches this is usually their ministry area, the target area for the churchs local ministry. Often a circle around the church is a useful study area for a church. It might also be some special area of interest for a special ministry project or an area of interest for starting a new church. b) Geographic distribution Its also important to know the geographic distribution of population, ages, race, etc. Color-coded, thematic maps show a picture of how demographic variables are distributed within the study area. These maps can show the neighborhoods that have more young families or more Hispanics or more singles, etc. Then, evangelistic and outreach

methods can be used which are appropriate for the majority of the people in each area. This is more properly referred to as the field of geo-demographics. c) Geo-coding Do you remember the pin maps showing locations of church members on a city map? The computer, with Scan/US, can now create a pin map which shows locations of members, prospects, or others plus additional information. Also, a pin map can be made to overlay a color-coded map showing, for example, if church members are from older or younger neighborhoods. In fact, the pin map can be encoded to show things such as from which neighborhoods newer members are coming versus those who have been members longer.

Targeted Evangelism and Ministry

All evangelism is targeted evangelism. Targeted evangelism or targeted ministry is an approach that plans to reach a particular segment of the population as opposed to a plan that has no particular target or aims to reach everyone. In other words, targeted evangelism/ministry aims at a special group of people rather than the entire population. Its like using a rifle rather than a shotgun. In the case of one-on-one evangelism the Gospel is shared with, targeted at, one person. This is the most effective form of evangelism because the evangelist can concentrate on the needs, questions, and concerns of that one person. And, that person understands that the evangelist is focusing directly on him or her. Revival services target those who attend the services. Those who attend are determined, largely, by those who respond to the type of publicity and promotion done for the revival. If the primary promotional effort was for church members to invite their lost friends then friends of church members have been targeted and our friends are usually much like us. If an ad was placed in a newspaper or on the radio, then those who read that newspaper or listen to that radio station were targeted. Of course God can work in a miraculous way to bring anyone to a revival service, but He usually works through our efforts. The people reached by a church are those that a church targets by its particular type and mix of ministries and evangelistic efforts. An emphasis on single adult ministry targets single adults. An emphasis on youth ministry targets youth. The church architecture, the music, the way we dress, and the type of preaching tends to be more agreeable to some than others and thus targets those who are attracted to it. The homogeneous principal of church growth is useful here. A church tends to more readily reach people like us. So, unless a church makes a conscious effort to reach people not like us it will tend, over the years, to become more and more homogeneous and it will be more and more difficult to reach others not like us. Jesus targeted individuals and tailored his presentation of Himself to the one to whom he was speaking, whether it was a rich young ruler or a Samaritan woman. Targeting is inevitable since every choice we make in our evangelistic efforts will tend to reach or attract some more than others do. The problem is that weve often been doing our targeting unconsciously. We now have the demographic tools to consciously target those that God is leading us to reach so we can make our Gospel presentation one

to which they will more likely respond. We now have the responsibility of learning how to do that and the joy of seeing people come to Christ as God works through our efforts. Using demographics, or geo-demographics, we can know more about those in our communities and in our neighborhoods. We can have a better idea of ages, family status, education, income, and lifestyle. Then we can design our outreach activities to match the needs, interests, and desires of those were attempting to reach. This may be as simple as sending like-aged people to visit in a particular neighborhood or designing a targeted mailer of interest to those in a particular zip code area. Or, ministries can better target particular people groups. Or, new churches can be started to match their communities.

Demographic Descriptors
Population The population of an area is usually the first thing we think about in demographics. But for the census, before population comes housing units and households. The housing unit is where the Census Bureaus begins. It needs a place to put the people. A housing unit is anywhere anyone resides or is meant to reside. It may be a single-family dwelling, one side of a duplex, an apartment, or a house trailer, etc. It may or may not be occupied. Group quarters are special housing units in which people live communally, such as college dormitories, rest homes, military barracks, and prisons. A household is made up of one or more persons who live in a housing unit. They may or may not be related. If the household is composed of two or more persons related by marriage, birth, or adoption then they are termed a family household. If they are not related or if its a one-person household, then it is a non-family household. Non-family households include roommates, people living alone, cohabiting couples, etc. However, those living in group quarters and the homeless are not considered to be in households. In the past the census bureau has not counted the homeless but currently is attempting to improve its procedures for this. Todays households are more diverse than ever. Members of a household may be different in age, gender, and education, but usually share a common income, and lifestyle. In the past they would usually share a common race but today they are often of different races. Churches usually, but not always, reach people by the household. If one person in a household is reached, then the others are usually easier to reach because of their relationships. In a family with children, reaching a parent or a child will often lead to reaching the entire household. Population means people and total population tells a church the potential number of people to reach and minister to in their area. Also, color-coded maps show how that population is distributed geographically. They show where the population is most dense and less dense.

An estimate of the number of unchurched people can be made by beginning with the total population then subtracting the number who are already members of some church in the area. The number of resident members of Southern Baptist churches in the area can be obtained from the Annual Church Profile (ACP) information available at the associational office or state convention. The resident membership of non-Southern Baptist churches in the area can be obtained by calling and asking them or can be estimated by others familiar with area. In most areas of Oklahoma the total number of non-Southern Baptist church members is about equal to the number of Southern Baptists. These two numbers, Southern and non-Southern Baptist resident memberships, when subtracted from the total population, leave the number of unchurched in the area. For most of Oklahoma, the unchurched population is about one-half to over two-thirds of the total population. Population change tells a church if their area is growing or declining. It contains four components: births, deaths, people moving in, and people moving out. A growing area gives a church a greater pool of new people who are often easier to reach. However, even in a declining area, there are usually plenty of lost and unchurched people to reach. Population change can also be seen geographically with the aid of color-coded maps. A geographical area may be stable or declining overall but included in it may be smaller areas of rapid growth. In fact, people may be moving from a central old downtown area out to the suburbs. This is happening in many small towns and cities all over Oklahoma. Age Groupings Age is a key question in demographics because it implies so many other things about people. The census gives a great deal of information about age groupings and by age groups, like income by the age of the head of the household. Two basic approaches help us to understand the needs and desires of different age groups. Developmental Tasks is an approach that sees people of similar ages at similar stages in life engaged in similar tasks. For example, usually its young adults who are starting a family and a career; its middle adults who are raising teenagers and establishing their career; and its older adults who may be dealing with the loss of a mate and living in retirement. Children are engaged in different tasks altogether. Basic life stages are: Preschool Children Youth Young Adulthood Middle Adulthood Older Adulthood Generations is another way to look at people of particular ages. A generation is composed of people who share common birth years, ages, formative experiences, and core characteristics. The basis of the generational approach is that persons of a particular generation had similar experiences that affected them in similar ways. The current generations in our churches are:

G.I. Generation born 1901-1925 Silent Generation born 1926-1944 Boomer Generation born 1945-1963 Generation X born 1964-1981 Millennial Generation born 1982-2000? Age has for a long time been understood as extremely important in reaching people. Church staff members are called for a specific age group such as Childrens Minister, Youth Minister, or Adult Minister. Church programs and ministries are usually age graded. This is because different ages do have different needs and interests and respond to different Gospel presentations. Gender The twentieth century has seen tremendous changes in gender roles. More women are in the workplace today than ever before and the increase continues. Women have moved into professional roles once reserved for men. Women are filling more positions of leadership in courtrooms, hospitals, and businesses. More churches are beginning to respond more to gender differences in their outreach efforts with Mens Ministries and Womens Ministries. Simple things such as differences in colors of materials and wording can make a big difference between genders. Race Race for the Census Bureau is a self-classification of people according to the race with which they most closely identify. Racial classifications are White, Black, America Indian, Asian or Pacific Islander, Eskimo or Aleut, and other. Hispanics are considered by the Census Bureau to be an ancestry group rather than a race. Those classified as of Hispanic origin are those who trace their roots back to a Spanish speaking country. They may be of any race. Because different races, by definition, come from different cultural backgrounds, we can expect them to respond differently to our presentation of the Gospel message. They have different preferences in worship, music, etc. Income Income is one of the major descriptors of a persons attitudes, expectations, and lifestyle. It is used by business to target specific markets of people who are more apt to purchase their products. Thats why Wal Mart and Neiman Marcus each carry different product lines. The income estimates and projections are presented in current dollars. Therefore, they contain both an inflationary and a real component. An inflationary rate of 3% per year was assumed between 1996 and 2006 based on Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) projections. The church has been hesitant to think of income as an important characteristic in their efforts to reach people. Indeed all people need the Gospel irrespective of their

income level. However, the question is not who needs the Gospel but how can we present the Gospel so they will hear and respond to it. Examples abound of churches that do not match their neighborhoods. On the one hand, are churches of lower income that have found themselves surrounded by newer, affluent suburbs but been unable to reach them because of the mismatch of expectations. On the other hand, are churches of higher income that have found themselves in the midst of a neighborhood in transition to lower income housing and been unable to reach those living around their church because of the mismatch of expectations. People have certain expectations when they visit or receive a contact from a church, or a place of business. Their level of expectation is directly related to other places they visit, their home, and their place of work. To be taken seriously by those we are trying to reach, we must match those expectations with our Gospel presentation. This never implies watering down the Gospel message. It does mean that we present the Gospel in a way that is understandable and appealing to those we are trying to reach. As Paul said, I have become all things to all men so that by all possible means I might save some. I Corinthians 9:22b (NIV) Education Education is another major descriptor of a persons attitudes, expectations, and lifestyle. Also, there is a direct correlation between education and income. In general, the higher the educational level a person has attained, the more likely they are to occupy a higher income level. This is the basis of Socioeconomic classifications. Educational attainment is reported by the census according to the highest level completed for people 25 years of age or older. The age of 25 is used with the assumption that before that age a person is still engaged in their educational process. Education is another of those characteristics that the church has been hesitant to consider in its outreach efforts knowing that all need Christ irrespective of diplomas or degrees. However, educational level does affect the type of Gospel presentation to which a person might be more likely to respond. Would you present the Gospel in the same way to a high school drop out and a college professor? Their intelligence may be the same but the professor has probably been exposed to ideas and questions that the other has not. The high school drop out may have experienced some things that the professor has not. When designing evangelistic and outreach materials and ministries be sure to consider the educational level of those you are attempting to reach. One way to do this is to assemble a focus group from your church that would otherwise be representative of those you are trying to reach. Let them help you design the approach as one that would reach them. Family Status Family status is also a major descriptor of lifestyle. Family status is related to individual persons. The categories are; never married, married, and formerly married. The formerly married category is further divided into divorced, separated, or widowed. Each of these say a great deal about a persons needs, desires, attitudes, and lifestyle. The family household has long been the primary target for the church and ministries have been provided for the entire family. In Oklahoma 68% of the households are family households. In recent years, churches have responded to the needs of single

adults as opposed to those of married adults and have begun to realize that a significant number of households are not married with children. Religious Affiliation The U.S. Census Bureau neither asks nor reports religious affiliation. Therefore we must turn to other sources for this information. The most widely used is the Church and Church Membership Study done every ten years by the Glenmary Research Center, Atlanta, Georgia. The last study was done in 1990 and gives the number of churches of different denominations, full membership (similar to total membership), and total adherents (includes members, their children, and regular attendees). This is available on the county level. According to this study Oklahoma Southern Baptists in 1990 had 26% of the churches, 52% of the full members, and 46% of the total adherents in Oklahoma. These last two numbers help to verify the statement made above that in most areas of Oklahoma the total number of non-Southern Baptist church members is about equal to the number of Southern Baptists. This study also indicates that 24% of the population of Oklahoma are full members of a Southern Baptist Church. However, in more realistic terms of the 1996 Annual Church Profile (ACP), resident membership was only a bit over half that or 14% of the population. A good estimate is that about 1/6th of Oklahomans are members of a Southern Baptist church, about 1/3rd are members of some other churches, and about 2/3rd are not members of any church. Lifestyle Everyone has a lifestyle. Your lifestyle in simple terms is seen in the things you do. Its composed of what you read, look at, listen to, eat, drive, and buy. In biblical terms it is I will show you my faith by what I do. James 2:18c. What you do shows a lifestyle of faith or some other lifestyle. Mosaic Lifestyle Segmentation has been developed by Scan/US. They divided the population of the United States into 60 different lifestyles arranged into 12 social groupings. Examples of nicknames given to these lifestyles are Emptying Nests, Down Home Living, Rustbelt Nesters, Heartlanders, Comfy Country Living, and Suburban Dream Weavers. These lifestyles are defined first from the demographic descriptors listed above: age, education, income, family status, and race/ancestry. Then added to these, are media surveys, buying patterns, and other consumer information. These are combined to define the 60 lifestyles. They are defined by households assuming those sharing a single household will also share a single lifestyle. In Oklahoma the largest social grouping is Lower Income Homebodies which includes 23% of the households. Most of the other lifestyles are also represented to a lesser extent. The Lower Income Homebodies social group is characterized by workers who drive to their blue collar jobs from their rural communities. Many of the homes have two workers. Most own the home they live in. They often read garden and outdoor life magazines, rent movies, eat home cooked meals and drive a pickup or an older mid-size sedan.

The demographic report can tell you the predominate lifestyle(s) in your area allowing you to then develop an approach designed specifically to reach the people around your church. Oklahoma Oscar and Annie It is often helpful to personalize the statistics of demographics in a way that will make them seem more alive. Saddleback Sam is an example used by Rick Warren at Saddleback Church in California to illustrate the people the church was trying to reach. So I present to you Oklahoma Oscar and Annie. They are composed of the mean or predominant values of the above statistics or descriptors for the entire state of Oklahoma. If one were to design one evangelistic outreach plan for the entire state, then designing it to reach Oscar and Annie would be a good approach. Age: Race: Income: Education: Family: Religious Affiliation: Lifestyle: 36.1 White $36,501 High School Graduate Married w/children None Low-Income Homebody

But, such a plan would be too general. Fortunately there are individual churches all over Oklahoma that God has placed in cities, towns, communities and open fields where they can concentrate on reaching those in their local area. Using demographics you can design a visualization of those in your community or a part of your community which your church is trying to reach. It could be Bartlesville Bob, Durant Dave, Woodward Willie, or Tipton Terry. Then design a way to reach that person.

APPENDIX A
A Glossary of Demographic Terms and Abbreviations
> means greater than, over, more, or above depending on the context. < means less than, below, less, or lower depending on the context. Aggregate The aggregate is the total. Its normal usage is for Aggregate Income that is the total income of all persons in an area, usually expressed in millions of dollars. Census Blocks, Block Groups, and Census Tracts A census block is the smallest geographical area used by the U.S. Census Bureau. It is bounded by streets, rivers, county lines, or other physical and political boundaries. Its usually several city blocks in size. Block groups contain several census blocks. Census Tracts contain several block groups.

Demographics The word demographics comes from two Greek words, demos meaning people as in democracy means rule by the people and graphos meaning to write or record. Demographics is the study of people and their characteristics. Est. means a number is an estimate. Group Quarters A special housing unit in which several unrelated people live in a communal setting is referred to as group quarters. Examples are college dormitories, rest homes, military barracks, and prisons. Housing Unit Any place anyone lives or is meant to live. A housing unit is anywhere anyone lives or is meant to live. It may be a single family dwelling, one side of a duplex, an apartment, a house trailer, etc. It may or may not be occupied. Households and Families The household is the basic unit of demographics. A household is one or more persons who live in a housing unit. It is a family, or family household, if it is composed of two or more persons who are related by marriage, blood, or adoption. If they are not related or if its a one-person household, then it is a non-family household. M means millions, usually millions of dollars. Median and Average Both median and average are attempts to measure the central point of a set of numbers. The median is the midpoint of a set of numbers such that one half of the numbers are larger and one half are smaller. The average, or mean, is the sum of a set of numbers divided by how many numbers are in the set. The median is often the best measure of the central point for demographic statistics with wide and unusual variations, such as age and income. Microgrids A geographic matrix of square grids used to analyze demographic data. Their size varies from one mile square in rural areas to one sixteenth mile square in areas of very dense population. They are larger than census blocks and smaller than block groups. They were devised and are copyrighted by Scan/US Inc. Proj. means a number is projected into the future. T means thousands, usually thousands of dollars.

APPENDIX B
Update Methodology

Every ten years, the census provides a comprehensive demographic portrait of the United States that will continue to be useful throughout the decade. The wealth of demographic information from the census provides considerable detail on a multitude of specific population and housing characteristics. Nonetheless, year by year, census data becomes progressively less desirable for business planning. Each year, the need increases for accurate current estimates and reliable forecasts. So, every year Urban Decision Systems supplements the base census with current-year estimates and future projections. They are built using a series of complex models they developed and refined over the past twenty years. Yearly Estimates and Projections Every year Urban Decision Systems produces a current year estimate and a fiveyear projection into the future. The set of variables has always included population, households, income, employment characteristics, and dwellings. It has been expanded recently to include a number of labor force characteristics, education, marital status, and vehicles available. The income estimates have also been extended to show income by race and Hispanic origin. Population Estimates for all population variables are based on the current and projected population of each geographic unit. The current population of the United States is obtained from the monthly P-25 series population estimate. This is a very accurate and current estimate of the population and serves as the basis for projection and estimation at lower levels of geographic detail. The five-year projections have been derived from the middle-series projections of the Census Bureau, which makes the following general assumptions: Age-specific fertility rates will remain at 1990 levels for all, but the Hispanic origin population and the American Indian/Eskimo/Aleut population, which are both projected to decline by 15% over the period 1995-2050 Life expectancy is projected to increase by 6.7 years between 1993 and 2050. Net immigration is projected to remain at the 1993 level of 880,000 per year. State level estimates are based on a combination of the extension of past trends in population and current estimates by Federal and State authorities. An initial set of State level estimates were derived by using the latest Census Bureau estimates by state (publication P25-1106). The resulting estimates are then ratio-adjusted so that the sum of the State estimates is equal to the national total. For the projections, a similar method is employed. When estimating population change Urban Decision Systems uses straight-line methods only for areas where population growth is occurring. For areas in decline, a lognormal extrapolation is used. This has the effect of slowing decline over time, which is characteristic of long term population decline at the state level. At the county level of geographic detail, similar trend and balancing methods are employed. Where the county projections of population were available from state and local authorities and were deemed reliable, these external estimates were used as the initial estimate before balancing the sum of the county populations to the state level

estimates and projections. County level projections from most states, including all of the larger states, were utilized in the projections. At the block group level of detail, the population model consists of a non-linear trend model which estimates populations given historical patterns, then balances the sum of the block group populations to the parent county level of geography. As a final check on population, block group population estimates were aggregated to both the ZIP and County scales and thoroughly compared with estimates from external sources. The result is a comprehensive set of population estimates and projections which includes the knowledge of State and County agencies about their detailed areas but also ensures that the total population is consistent with the Census Bureau estimates, which have proved extremely reliable over time. Population by Age, Sex, and Race National level Census Bureau projections of age by sex and race/Hispanic origin were used as overall controls to ensure consistency with the Census projections. Detailed forecasts by age, sex, and race, as well as Hispanic origin, were obtained from the Census Bureau publication P25-1104, Current Population Reports, Population Projections of the United States, By Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin, 1993-2050. In all cases, the middle series projections were used. At the state level, the projections of individual state agencies were combined with the results of a cohort survival approach to obtain reliable state estimates by age and sex. The block group estimates were compiled using cohort survival methods, then balanced to both the estimated block group population totals and to the state level control totals. Trends in the racial distribution and Hispanic populations were used to derive a preliminary estimate at the block group level, which were then adjusted to balance with appropriate control totals. This method allowed Urban Decision Systems to use historical changes in race and Hispanic origin distributions and project those changes into the future, while maintaining consistency with national level projections.

A Guide to Using Demographic Data to Reach People

by Sam H. Vinall Planning & Research Baptist General Convention of Oklahoma

A Guide to Using Demographic Data to Reach People

by Sam H. Vinall

Planning & Research Baptist General Convention of Oklahoma 1997 by Sam H. Vinall, 2nd edition 1998