Hobby Center for Public Policy (HCPP) at the University of Houston.

Presented by: C. Robert Heath Bickerstaff Heath Delgado Acosta LLP

2011 Bickerstaff Heath Delgado Acosta LLP

Republicans were in control of the redistricting process in both 2001 and 2011 As A a result, a districting plan that was lt di t i ti l th t highly advantageous to Republicans became even more advantageous

Example: 2010 Congressional delegation--23R-9D

Likely 2012 Congressional delegation --26R-10D 26R 10D 2010 State Senate---19R-12D Likely 2012 State Senate---20R-11D Senate 20R 11D

2011 Bickerstaff Heath Delgado Acosta LLP

Challenges to the Republican Majority

Congressional In the 2008 Republican wave election, Republicans won two seats previously held by Hispanic Democrats. This posed the challenge of protecting the new incumbents without creating a section 5 or section 2 problem.

State Senate A Democrat, Wendy Davis, had won a previously Republican seat, which the Legislature sought to put back in Republican hands hands.

State House p , p After the 2008 Republican wave election, Republicans held 101 seats. In 2001, the Legislative Redistricting Board had strained to draw a plan with 88 Republican seats. It would be a challenge to protect the unusually large number of Republican incumbents.
2011 Bickerstaff Heath Delgado Acosta LLP

Challenges to the g Democratic Minority

The Democrats did not have the votes to affect the ultimate plans ff h li l

Attempt to avoid excessive changes to existing Democratic districts Make a record for subsequent litigation

2011 Bickerstaff Heath Delgado Acosta LLP

PLANS

ARE SUBJECT TO LITIGATION

The State has chosen to seek preclearance in the D.C. District Court rather than before the Department of Justice (2 judges are George W Bush appointees and one is a Barack Obama appointee). Remaining suits have been consolidated to be tried before a three-judge court in San Antonio t i db f th j d ti S A t i (The three judges were appointed by Reagan, Clinton and George W Bush).
2011 Bickerstaff Heath Delgado Acosta LLP

Texas Population p
2000

Population: p

20,851,820 , ,
2010

Population:

25,145,561 25,145,561 20.59% Increase 20.59%

2011 Bickerstaff Heath Delgado Acosta LLP

CONGRESSIONAL SEAT DISTRIBUTION AS A RESULT OF THE 2010 CENSUS

Racial/EthnicCompositionofTexasPopulation 1990,2000and2010 ,
Anglo
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Hispanic

Black 1.6%

Asian

Other 1.8%

0.4% 1.8% 11.6% 2.7%

3.8% 11.3% 11.5%

25.5% 32.0% 32 0% 37.6%

60.6%

52.4%

45.3%

1990

2000
Year

2010

Rate of Growth Between 2000 and 2010 For Racial and Ethnic Groups in Texas (Using Single Race Responses for 2010)
80% 72.7%

70%

60%

50%

43.4%

40% 27.3% 30%

20% 7.7% 10%

0%

Hispanic

Anglo

Black

Asian

Source: CensusBureau,U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.

The Problem for Hispanic Plaintiffs

To establish a violation under 2 of the VRA, they must demonstrate the ability to draw districts with Hispanic Citizen-Voting-Age Population (CVAP) Citizen Voting Age Difficult task
1)

Hispanic population is younger & therefore represents a lower percentage of VAP than total population Hispanic population is dispersed Lower citizenship percentage than Anglos and Blacks o e c t e s p pe ce tage t a g os a d ac s Citizenship rates vary throughout the state The source of citizenship data is less reliable than in the past
2011 Bickerstaff Heath Delgado Acosta LLP

2) 3) 4) 5)

Issues in the Litigation g

(reflected in reports of opening argument and in expert reports)

Is there a need to add additional Hispanic seats in light of Hispanic growth? Is it possible to create an additional Hispanic CVAP s poss b e o c ea e a add o a spa c C majority district? Should the court consider a Black-Hispanic coalition district in determining if there is a potential CVAP majority? Did the House of Representatives systematically underpopulate Anglo seats and over-populate Hispanic seats? Should th Sh ld the court be bound by the county-line rule i tb b d b th t li l in analyzing the House redistricting plan?
2011 Bickerstaff Heath Delgado Acosta LLP

(Continued)

Is Congressional District 23 (El Paso to San

Antonio), which increased its percentage of the various Hispanic population measures, a Hispanic opportunity di t i t? t it district?

Are some of the plans racial gerrymanders? Were the plans adopted with discriminatory
intent?

Were decisions allegedly based on race, in fact,

simply determined by partisan consideration?

2011 Bickerstaff Heath Delgado Acosta LLP

Hispanic Citizenship p p in Texas Cities - 2000

Percentage of Adult Hispanic Population Who Are

Lubbock San Angelo San Antonio Amarillo El Paso

96.87% 96 87% 88.88% 87.60% 80.59% 76.19%

McAllen Austin Houston Dallas

73.40% 73 40% 65.60% 48.41% 40.09%

Data obtained from Summary File 4 and Special Tabulation 56, 2000 Census. 2011 Bickerstaff Heath Delgado Acosta LLP

Hobby Center for Public Policy (HCPP) at the University of Houston.

Presented by: C. Robert Heath Bickerstaff Heath Delgado Acosta LLP

2011 Bickerstaff Heath Delgado Acosta LLP