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Barclays Capital 2011 Global Automotive Conference November 15, 2011
Forward-Looking Statement
Certain statements contained in this presentation are forward-looking statements and relate to the Companys plans, projections, strategies or future performance. Such statements, made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, are based on our current expectations, are inherently uncertain, are subject to risks and should be viewed with caution. Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times at, or by, which such achieved. performance or results will be achieved Forward-looking statements are based on information available at the time those statements are made and/or managements good faith belief as of that time with respect to future events and are subject to risks and may differ materially from those expressed in or suggested by the forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause such differences include, but are not limited to: global economic conditions; reduced purchases of our products by General Motors Company (GM), Chrysler Group LLC (Chrysler) or other customers; reduced demand for our customers products (particularly light trucks and sport utility vehicles (SUVs) produced by GM and Chrysler); availability of financing for working capital, capital expenditures, R&D or other general corporate purposes, including our ability to comply with financial covenants; our customers and suppliers availability of financing customers suppliers for working capital, capital expenditures, R&D or other general corporate purposes; our ability to continue to achieve cost reductions through ongoing restructuring actions; additional restructuring actions that may occur; our ability to achieve the level of cost reductions required to sustain global cost competitiveness; our ability to maintain satisfactory labor relations and avoid future work stoppages; our suppliers, our customers and their suppliers ability to maintain satisfactory labor relations and avoid work stoppages; our ability to continue to implement improvements in our U.S. labor cost structure; supply shortages or price increases in raw materials, utilities or other operating supplies; our ability and our customers and suppliers ability to successfully launch new product programs on a timely basis; our ability to realize th expected revenues f li the t d from our new and i d incremental b i t l business b kl backlog; our ability t attract new customers and bilit to tt t t d programs for new products; our ability to develop and produce new products that reflect market demand; lower-thananticipated market acceptance of new or existing products; our ability to respond to changes in technology, increased competition or pricing pressures; price volatility in, or reduced availability of, fuel; adverse changes in laws, government regulations or market conditions affecting our products or our customers products (such as the Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations); liabilities arising from warranty claims, product liability and legal proceedings to which we are or may become a party; changes in liabilities arising from pension and other postretirement benefit obligations; risks of noncompliance with environmental regulations or risks of environmental issues that could result in unforeseen costs at our facilities; our ability to attract and retain key associates; our ability to consummate and integrate acquisitions and joint ventures; risks inherent in our international operations (including adverse changes in the political stability, taxes and other law changes, potential disruption of production and supply, and currency rate fluctuations); and other unanticipated events and conditions that may hinder our ability to compete. For additional discussion, see Item 1A. Risk Factors in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. It is not possible to foresee or identify all such factors and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements or to disclose any subsequent facts, events or circumstances that may affect their accuracy.
Executive Summary
AAM has returned to solid profitability
3Q 2011 marked the 9th consecutive profitable quarter for AAM 3Q 2011 was also th 7th consecutive quarter with year-over-year sales growth l the ti t ith l th
O Operating b k ti breakeven reduced t U S SAAR of 10M vehicle units d d to U.S.SAAR f 10M hi l it AAM is benefiting from a trend of higher sales of light trucks in the U.S. and
stronger truck mix as a percentage of total U.S. vehicle sales AAM s AAMs new business backlog for the years 2012 2014 has grown to $1 1 billion 2012-2014 $1.1 (> $500 million of which is launching outside the U.S.)
1. Profitably growing AAMs sales faster than the overall industry 2. Significantly improving AAMs business diversification 3. 3 Strengthening AAMs balance sheet AAM s
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Company Overview
Leading global automotive supplier
Tier I supplier of driveline and drivetrain systems and related p g g components for light trucks, SUVs, p passenger cars, crossover vehicles and commercial vehicles
North America
Europe Asia
South America
Front Axle
High technology, High-technology, performance-enhancing driveline and drivetrain products for light trucks, SUVs, passenger cars, crossover vehicles and commercial vehicles
Front Axle
Commercial Vehicle
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Operational Excellence
Discrepant Parts Per Million* Customer Warranty Cost Per Vehicle*
13,441
25% 2 %
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11 YTD
Awarded to:
20%
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'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 '10 'YTD 10 YTD 11
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 YTD
T R U C K
Technology Leadership
Product, Process and Systems Technology
AAM is a leader in providing industry-first, cutting edge driveline technology to the global market for passenger car, crossover vehicle and light truck applications. applications
Profitable Growth
3Q 2011 financial results:
3Q 2011 YTD sales grew twice as fast as the industry 9th consecutive profitable quarter for AAM 7th consecutive quarter with year-over-year sales growth
3Q 2011 YTD Actual Adjusted Sales Operating income
% of sales
$ $ $ $
1,979 175
8.8%
$ $ $ $
1,979 189
9.6%
Net income
% of sales
112
5.6%
126
6.4%
EBITDA
% of sales
281
14.2%
296
14.9%
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From 2011 2014, we expect AAMs non-GM sales to grow twice as fast as AAMs total sales.
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Approximately two thirds two-thirds is for passenger car, CUV and commercial vehicle programs
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Note: Amounts presented related to the new business backlog are not mutually exclusive.
South America 12.3% North America 53.2% Pass Car / CUV 52.4%
Asia 30.2%
Europe 4.3%
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GMT900 58%
GMT900 43%
* The Pro Forma 2014 sales is based on 2011 Outlook Sales, adjusted for the estimated impact of AAMs new business backlog (as of October 28, 2011).
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Europe 3%
* The Pro Forma 2014 sales is based on 2011 Outlook Sales, adjusted for the estimated impact of AAMs new business backlog (as of October 28, 2011).
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AAM s EcoTrac AAMs EcoTrac brand of fuel-efficient and environmentfriendly driveline products strengthens AAMs position as a leader in global driveline systems technology
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COVERAGE RATIO RATIO: September 30, 2011 LTM Interest expense 3Q 2011 LTM EBIT / Interest expense 2013 Target
millions
millions CAPITALIZATION: September 30, 2011 Net debt $ 936 Adjusted Net debt / Capitalization (MV basis) 57%
BOOK EQUITY: September 30, 2011 Stockholders' equity September 30, 2011 Book equity position 2013 Target
millions
(373)
Negative Positive
2013 Target
< 40%
Note: For a definition and reconciliation of Net Debt, please see the Appendix
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2011 Outlook U.S. SAAR Sales Adjusted EBITDA j Adjusted EBITDA (as a % of sales) Capital Spending Approximately 12.5M-13.0M $2.5 Billion - $2.6 Billion $ $363M - $390M $ 14.5% - 15.0% 6.0% 6.5% 6 0% - 6 5% of sales
Note: For a definition and reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA, please see the Appendix
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Well positioned to benefit from economic recovery operating breakeven reduced to 10M U.S. SAAR
Accelerating progress on business diversification initiatives, including , g e-AWD for passenger cars and CUVs
Cost-competitive and operationally flexible global manufacturing, engineering and sourcing footprint
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Appendix
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Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 YTD 2010
Annualized Selling Pace Monthly Last 2 mos. Last 3 mos. 660,970 825,777 796,705 587,794 624,382 746,449 836,422 712,108 695,062 838,258 837,340 754,158 977,878 908,068 884,186 884,074 930,976 900,070 934,210 909,142 932,054 899,818 917,014 906,034 859,354 879,586 897,794 986,614 922,984 915,262 807,838 897,226 884,602 1,148,926 978,382 981,126
F-S Truck/ SUV mix 12.9% 11.8% 12.9% 13.2% 14.0% 14.2% 14.6% 14.5% 14.5% 15.9% 14.5% 16.1% 14.2%
Source: Wards
Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 y Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 YTD 2011
12.5 13.3 13.1 13.1 11.8 11.4 12.2 12.1 13.1 13.3 12.6
66,938 72,487 75,141 68,502 69,575 75,002 77,322 86,499 95,058 84,246 770,773 ,
AAM estimate
803,260 869,848 901,696 822,028 834,904 900,028 927,868 1,037,992 1,140,700 1,010,956
976,093 836,554 885,772 861,862 828,466 867,466 913,948 982,930 1,089,346 1,075,828
920,008 940,678 858,268 864,524 852,876 852,320 887,600 955,296 1,035,520 1,063,216
14.1% 13.2% 12.7% 11.9% 12.5% 14.3% 14.6% 15.3% 17.1% 16.1% 14.2%
Source: Wards
Volume and mix are both improved in 2011 vs. 2010 on a YTD basis.
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LTM
Sep 30, 2011
Net income attributable to AAM, as reported (a)(b) Interest expense Income tax expense (benefit) EBIT, as defined Depreciation and amortization EBITDA, as defined Net sales as % of net sales
EBIT is defined as earnings before interest and taxes. EBITDA is defined as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. We believe that EBITDA is a meaningful measure of performance as it is commonly utilized by management and investors to analyze operating performance and entity valuation. Our management, the investment community and the banking institutions routinely use EBITDA, together with other measures, to measure our operating performance relative to other Tier 1 automotive suppliers. EBITDA should not be construed as income from operations, net income or cash flow from operating activities as determined under GAAP. Other companies may calculate EBITDA differently.
LTM = Last Twelve Months
(a) ( ) (b)
Includes I l d special charges, asset i i l h t impairments, and other non-recurring costs and t refunds of $11.9 million i 2011 (i l di $0 5 million related t th non-controlling i t d th i t d tax f d f $11 9 illi in (including $0.5 illi l t d to the t lli interests portion of a $1.6 million asset impairment recorded by e-AAM), primarily related to restructuring actions. (b) Includes charges of $3.1 million in 2011 and $7.7 million in 2009, net of tax, related to debt refinancing and redemption costs
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YTD
Sep 30, 2011
LTM
Sep 30, 2011
Net cash provided by (used in) operating activities Less: Net purchases of property, plant & equipment Free cash flow
$44.3
$79.0
$85.9
$28.6
$46.8
$1.0
115.5
$(181.9)
$(65.4)
$(18.6)
(28.3)
(17.9)
(17.8)
(24.8)
(42.9)
(30.0)
(33.8)
(39.3)
(103.1)
(146.0)
$16.0
$61.1
$68.1
$3.8
$3.9
$(29.0)
$81.7
(221.2)
$(168.5)
$(164.6)
Free cash flow is defined as net cash provided by operating activities less purchases of property and equipment, net of proceeds from sales of assets. We believe free cash flow is a meaningful measure as it is commonly utilized by management and investors to assess our ability to generate cash flow from business operations to repay debt and return capital to our stockholders. Free cash flow is also a key metric used in our calculation of incentive compensation. Other companies may calculate free cash flow differently.
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Total debt
$1,050.6
(114.4)
Net debt
$936.2
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