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BUDGET 2012-13

Forget the pizza. Order more booze to drown your sorrows

Budget Highlights
Subsidies to be kept under 2% of GDP in 2012-13. Aim to lower it to 1.75%. Fiscal deficit for 2012-13 pegged at 5.1% of GDP. Rajiv Gandhi Equity Saving Scheme launched. The limit for tax free infra bond issues to be raised from 30K cr to 60K cr. Divestment target for FY13 at Rs 30,000 cr. Securities Transaction Tax (STT) reduced by 20% on cash delivery transactions. Excise and service tax rates up by 2% to 12% each. No change in corporate tax. Exemption limit for individual taxpayers enhanced from Rs 1,80,000 to Rs 2,00,000. Govt.s borrowing target for FY13 at Rs 4.79 lakh cr.

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FM SPEAK

Petrol price rise will happen via executive actions

Pranab Mukherjee is easily the most sought after man in India today. After delivering his Union Budget 2012 in Parliament, he tells CNBC-TV18 that as far as petrol prices are concerned, these are decisions taken by the executive. Mukherjee says he has chosen to take the conservative route by pegging fiscal deficit at 5.1% of GDP growth. So, for now, global events such as those stemming from the Middle East are not impacting India in a way which could see us slip into any macro economic crisis. For complete article, Click here

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Macros
GDP Trend & Forecast
GDP Growth Rate %
12.00% 10.00% 9.60% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 9.30% 8.40% 6.70% 8.40% 6.90% GDP%

Key Takeaways
The government expects GDP to grow 7.6% in FY13. High interest rates and slowing demand could be spoilers. Most economists feel a realistic figure could be around 7.2%. Corporate margins continue to be under pressure, and if inflation stays at elevated levels because of rising crude prices, interest rates will not come down. And that could have a spillover effect on demand in the economy.

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Macros
Fiscal Deficit

Fiscal Deficit as % of GDP

7.00% 6.00% 6% 5.00% 6.50%

Fiscal Deficit %

4.80% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 3.30% 2.50%

4.60%

2011-12

Key Takeaways
The target for FY13 is 5.1%, which appears to be a tall order giving buoyant crude prices and the governments reluctance to cut subsidies. The target for FY12 was 4.6%, which eventually turned out to be 5.9% because of a sharp increase in crude oil prices. The market is not convinced that the government will be able to stick to the FY13 target, because a slowing economy may result in a shortfall in tax collections.
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Macros
Revenue Receipts
Revenue Receipts as % of GDP
1000000 900000 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 263813 305991 347077 434387 541864 540259 572811 788471 766989 Revenue Receipts (Rs in Cr) 935685

Key Takeaways
The government aims to raise Rs 30,000 through divestment in FY13; could
still be an ambitious target unless the market is good health and the government manages to get the pricing of the issues right.

For FY12, the government had budgeted for Rs 40,000 crore, and could
barely raise Rs 14,000 crore. And that too after arm-twisting LIC into participating in the ONGC share auction.

Standard excise duty has been hiked from 10% to 12% as government is
gradually rolling back the fiscal sops given in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis. With no game plan to reduce expenditure, the government had no option but to look at ways to increase revenues.

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New Tax Slabs

MALES
Exemption up to Rs 2 lakh for taxpayers. The upper limit of 20% tax slab raised to Rs 10 lakh. TAX RATE Nil 10% 20% 30% NOW POST BUDGET TAX RATE Nil 10% 20% 30%

FEMALES
Exemption up to Rs 2 lakh for taxpayers. The upper limit of 20% tax slab raised to Rs 10 lakh. NOW POST BUDGET

1.8 lakh 1.8 5 lakh 5 8 lakh Above 8 lakh

2.0 lakh 2 5 lakh 5 10 lakh Above 10 lakh

1.9 lakh 1.9 5 lakh 5 8 lakh Above 8 lakh

2.0 lakh 2 5 lakh 5 10 lakh Above 10 lakh

SENIOR CITIZENS (60 80 YRS)

The upper limit of 20% tax slab raised to Rs 10 lakh. TAX RATE Nil 10% 20% 30% NOW POST BUDGET TAX RATE Nil 20% 30%

VERY SENIOR CITIZENS (80 YRS & ABOVE)

The upper limit of 20% tax slab raised to Rs 10 lakh. NOW POST BUDGET

2.5 lakh 2.5 5 lakh 5 8 lakh Above 8 lakh

2.5 lakh 2.5 5 lakh 5 10 lakh Above 10 lakh

5 lakh 5 8 lakh Above 8 lakh

5 lakh 5 10 lakh Above 10 lakh

TAX CALCULATOR
Use our tax calculator to find out your new tax structure. Click here

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PERSONAL TAX
Everything you need to know about personal taxes
Arnav Pandya, Financial Planner TIndividuals have a small amount of benefit on the tax front but the overall situation will end up being negative as higher expenses in the form of additional service and excise eats up a larger part of their household budget. At the same time there are also a lot of gains on the procedural front that should not be forgotten. Starting with the tax gain there is a small benefit that is available in terms of the rise in the basic exemption limit that has been increased to Rs 2 lakh for individuals. This means a savings of Rs 2,000 in tax for male individuals and a savings of Rs 1,000 for female individuals. There is no extra benefit for female taxpayers as the basic exemption limit for everyone stands at Rs 2 lakh so this difference has now been eliminated. The real benefit on the tax front is for anyone who has a higher amount of income as the 20 per cent tax slab has been increased from Rs 8 lakh to Rs 10 lakh. This will give a straight and flat tax relief to the extent of Rs 20,000 for anyone who has income in excess of Rs 10 lakh. Taken together with the earlier benefit the total figure for a male individual will go upto Rs 22,000 and for a female individual to Rs 21,000. There is a benefit that will be available for new investors into a scheme called Rajiv Gandhi Equity Saving Scheme. This will provide for a deduction of 50 per cent upto Rs 50,000 of investment made but there will be a 3 year lock in. Further details would come in due course and these will list out whether the conditions required to meet the qualification are easy enough to let many new investors take the benefit. What is also important is the manner in which the funds will be managed as investors want tax benefits with returns on the investment. There is a big relief on the administrative front as having to collect small details about interest on savings banks interest and then paying tax on this has been tackled. There is a deduction of Rs 10,000 for income earned as savings bank interest so most people will gain on this front and it will make the filing of the returns easier as there will not be any extra tax to be paid. The salaried will benefit the most as they need not pay any additional amount of tax when there is a full deduction on all the other income in the form of tax deducted at source. For complete article, Click here

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PERSONAL TAX
Infra bonds may no longer be tax-deductible
Arnav Pandya, Financial Planner If you were celebrating about some small tax saving gains due to the announcements in the Union Budget then you actually need to stop and see whether you will actually end up with some benefits at the end of the day. While there was a lot of talk about the increase in the basic exemption limit what nobody would have told you is that one of the investment benefits consisting of the deduction from investing in long term infrastructure bonds is no longer present in FY13. Nature of benefit: Two years ago there was an additional deduction introduced to encourage investors to put money into infrastructure bonds. This consisted of bonds with a 5 year lock in and the maximum benefit for the year was restricted to Rs 20,000 of investments. The benefit was a deduction which meant that this amount of eligible investment was reduced from the taxable income of the individual. The tax benefit depended upon the slab that the individual fell into so this could vary. The most important part of the entire action was this was an additional benefit as compared to the Rs 1 lakh investment limit under Section 80C so it was something extra. Devil in the detail: The manner in which this section was structured was that this was applicable initial for just one financial year and this was later extended for one more financial year which meant that the benefit was available for the financial year 2010-11 and 2011-12. Now there is no mention in either the explanatory statement to the budget or in the part of the budget that makes the changes to the income tax act about any change in this particular section. What this actually means is that the term of the section has not been extended and that it will end at the end of March 2012. Implications: The implication of this is that the individual investor will lose the opportunity of this additional investment in the next financial year. This is a huge blow to them because this will actually push up their tax burden which will eat into the savings that they would have made due to the rise in the basic exemption limit. Take the case of a male person who has an income of Rs 6 lakh and they are using this benefit. The savings that they would have earlier got was Rs 2,000 on account of the rise in the basic exemption limit to Rs 2 lakh but a higher tax of Rs 4,000 due to the end of this benefit means that they are actually in a negative impact to the tune of Rs 2,000.

For complete article, Click here

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Whats Costlier
Air Conditioner Refrigerator GSM/PDA Mobiles

Gold

Cars/SUV

Cigarettes

Whats Cheaper
Laptops LCD Cinema & fares

Medicines for Treating Cancer HIV

Housing Society Charges

School Eductaion

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COMPANY Sun Pharma Cadila Healthcare Adani Power

PRICE 545.1 711.9 73

CHANGE (41.6) (40.1) (2.65)

RECOMMENDATIONS Higher tax will reduce the FY13/14 EPS by 10% Higher tax will reduce the FY13/14 EPS by 8% Exemption of Coal and LNG from customs duty positive for Adani Power and Tata Power Exit banking stocks, Tata Motors & Maruti Suzuki. Buy Nifty below 5200 levels. Cairn India, Bharti Airtel contrarian bets. Buy GMR Infra, GVK on 10-15% corrections says Baliga. Withholding tax on interest payments on ECBs reduced from 20% to 5% for 3 years. Positive for Tata Power. A 17% hike in defence budget to Rs 193407 Cr Positive for Bharat Electronics Provide weighted deduction of 150% on expenditure incurred for agri-extension services. Tax free infrastructure bonds has been raised to Rs 60,000 crore from Rs 30,000 crore

SBI

2227.9

(71.5)

Tata Power

105.65

(4.0)

Bharat Electronics Rallis India

1583.35 125.3

(42.7) (0.4)

IDFC

144.6

(0.2)

MARKET TAKE ON THE BUDGET

Vallabh Bhanshali ENAM FM has proved to be a greater friend of the economy. The focus has been on promising growth and the Budget has provisioned for actual delivery. Uday Kotak Kotak Mah Bank The political challenges prevent the announcement of a reformist Budget. However, it has provided direction in a broader reality. Samir Arora Helios Cap I am a bit disappointed, but not a lot because I think the Finance Minister has basically put everything down on credibility.

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SECTOR IMPACT
AUTO / 2 WHEELERS
PROPOSALS

- Basic excise duty hiked from 10% to 12% - Excise duty on large cars from 22% to 24% - No revision in taxes on diesel vehicles
IMPACT

Negative for the sector. Expect price hikes.

REALTY
PROPOSALS

- ECB for low cost affordable housing projects - Retains 1% interest rate subsidy for loans towards affordable housing
IMPACT

Negative for the sector

TELECOM
PROPOSALS

- Emphasis on rural economy and inclusive growth. - Inclusion of telecom tower infra in the viability gap funding. - Exemption of customs duty on parts of mobile phone.
IMPACT Overall, a neutral to mildly positive impact is expected.

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SECTOR IMPACT
INFRASTRUCTURE
PROPOSALS

- Amount of tax free infra bonds doubled to Rs 60,000 crore - 8,800 km of road projects will be awarded in FY13 - Allowed FIIs to invest in long term infra bonds
IMPACT

Positive for L&T, GMR Infra, IRB Infra, IDFC, Sadbhav Eng

POWER
PROPOSALS

- Allowed to take ECB route for rupee-debt on their books - Additional depreciation of 20% - Thermal power plants allowed full customs duty exemption on imported coal for two years.
IMPACT - Positive for the power sector

AVIATION
PROPOSALS

- Direct import of aviation turbine fuel (ATF) - Airlines can raise funds $1 billion via ECBs toward working capital requirements - 49% FDI from foreign airlines is under active consideration
IMPACT Neutral impact on the aviation sector

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INDIA INCS VERDICT ON BUDGET 2012

Adi Godrej Godrej Industries I am disappointed that
there is no timeline given for implementation of GST. The fiscal deficit target and disinvestment targets are also not too pleasing.

Chanda Kochhar ICICI Bank

FY13 fiscal deficit target is high, but it is pragmatic. It is believable and credible. The FM has talked about capping the subsidies to 2% of GDP.But, it is a positive.

Sunil Kant Munjal Hero MotoCorp

From the suggestions that CII had made, the FM has actually picked a lot of it, and I have to say, on the FRBM, capping subsidies etc, a whole host of thing.

Vinita Bali Britannia Industries

The FM has presented a mixed budget with fundamentally positive steps in some areas. A few positives include raising the plan outlay for agriculture by 18%.

Bharat Doshi M&M

Nothing was done about fiscal deficit. One would be concerned as the two horses, fiscal policy and monetary policy have to run hand in hand.

Naina Lal Kidwai HSBC India

The worry is expenditure. It is where govt fails typically. It is where things can go beyond control & where money gets spent badly.

Pramod Bhasin Genpact

Its meant to simplify the tax code, which is already open to so much reading, makes doing business in India harder. The entire tax and revenue collection process is quite tedious.

Hemant Kanoria Srei Infra

The power sector seems to have received extra attention vis--vis other sectors, and this is welcomed keeping in mind that this sector is going through a tough phase.

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THE LAST WORD

Budget's big message: Govt is always right
-Raghav Bahl, Founder, Network18 Pranab Mukherjee's effort this year marks the beginning of the end of the budget document as a definitive statement on policy and direction. In the past, budgets used to be a kind of state-of-the-union message, a strong indication of vision, direction and drive. Not any more. The budget exercise is gradually getting reduced to an annual accounting statement, and this budget is an indication of that trend. The only thing we get in this budget is a fiscal deficit number and an indication that subsidies will be cut to 2% of GDP this year and to 1.75% three years down the line. But did it give us any roadmap on how to get there? Not really. The budget told us that subsidies will be brought down by around Rs 60,000 crore this year but we don't know how this will be achieved. How are we going to reduce subsidies by such a huge amount in one year? In fact, the indications are negative. Take petrol prices - which are supposed to be deregulated. First, we are told that petrol price increases are being held in abeyance because of the Uttar Pradesh elections. The elections have come and gone, but where is the petrol price hike? What are they so scared about? What is the big deal here? What is the problem is raising prices by a few paise every fortnight, so that people can get used to it? Now if you can't even hike petrol, how are you going to raise diesel prices, which are much more vulnerable to populist pressures? If we don't fix diesel pricing, it could wreck the economy. We have no roadmap here, too. The other thing wrong with this budget is that it brings back the idea of Big Government - that the government can do no wrong, that it has the answer to everything. Vodafone is a case in point. Having lost the case in the Supreme Court, the government is now trying to legislate a retrospective amendment to the laws - like it did in the case of ITC years ago. What message is this going to send to foreign investors - who were extolling the independence of our judiciary with this single judgment? For complete article, Click here

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THE LAST WORD

Tinkerer Pranab has missed the bus - so what's new?
-R. Jagannathan Editor, Firstpost at Network 18 Mountains of expectations always deliver a mouse. And so it was with Pranab Mukherjee's make-or-break budget. He neither made much of the opportunity nor broke anyone's back by trying to do too much. The net verdict is this: Revenue has been beefed up, but expenditures are not quite in check. Thus, fiscal consolidation is still one-sided. Big reforms have been given the go-by. Small crumbs have been thrown at the middle class in terms of tax relief, but the price increases due to the raising of excise and service taxes will more than neutralise this gain. The macro numbers first: the big thing that was expected from Mukherjee was a sharp drop in the fiscal deficit, which he delivered, by bringing it down from 5.9 percent in 2011-12 to 5.1%. A big drop by 0.8% is good news, but the devil will be in the detail: how did he achieve it? The chances are he will miss the target once again because the cut is being achieved through raising taxes - the net additional taxes from customs, excise and service taxes will be Rs 45,940 crore while the crumbs on direct tax concessions equal Rs 4,500 crore. The net tax gain for Mukherjee: Rs 41,440 crore. The question is: in a period of slowing growth, will his revenue projections really live up to expectations? When last year he missed almost all targets? The big money (at least, what is planned) is coming from an across-the-board two percent hike in excise and service taxes to 12 percent, and the extension of service tax to every nook and cranny of the economy - only 17 services are exempt. Revenues will certainly go up. The concessions are fleabites: an increase in the tax-free exemption limit to Rs 2 lakh - that's a Rs 2,000 tax relief per individual. Rs 10,000 of interest earned from banks will be tax-free, but this is more a sop to banks - who are screaming about tax-free bonds and high payments on post-office schemes that are taking away customers. Senior citizens have been spared the payment of advance tax - but this is like making life easier, not about providing more money in the pocket. The salaried and the old can say thanks, but no thanks.

For complete article, Click here

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THE LAST WORD

Pranab Mukherjee's cautious game disappoints market
-Santosh Nair Editor, Moneycontrol at Network 18 The good thing for Pranab Mukherjee was that few people had any big expectations from the Budget, given the political compulsions of the UPA government. Still the market was hoping to hear something positive on subsidy cuts, lowering expenditure, improving capital investments, and a roadmap on the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and Direct Tax Code (DTC). The finance minister has disappointed on all these counts. But the bigger worry for the market now is that inflation could increase further in the coming months because of the proposal to hike service tax, excise duty and widen the number of taxable services (all but 17). The companies will mostly likely pass it on to consumers. Bond yields climbing to 8.4% already reflect those concerns, and there is a saying that if the bond market and equity market gives conflicting signals, always believe the bond markets. Some economists have been pointing to the worsening quality of India's growth (even if in relative terms it ranks among the best growing economies) where consumption is the driving factor rather than investment in capital assets. And with no concrete proposal to address supply side problems by improving infrastructure, there is every reason to believe that inflation will only worsen going ahead. And we have not yet taken into consideration higher fuel and power prices, two areas where the government is reluctant to act fearing political opposition. The Budget has guided for a fiscal deficit target of 5.1% for FY13, and gross borrowing figure of Rs 5.69 lakh crore. Market does not appear to be taking both numbers seriously, even though the fiscal deficit number is something it was hoping to hear. The reason for the indifference is clear: the government overshot both the estimates for FY12 by a wide margin. There is little reason to hope that same won't be the case in FY13 given rising crude prices, volatile capital flows because of turbulent global markets and the government's inability to take hard decisions that will be seen as politically unpopular. It will be interesting to see how the RBI makes of the Budget. In the last couple of policy review meets, the RBI made it clear that it will not lower rates unless it the government reduces the fiscal deficit by curbing wasteful expenditure. At its credit policy meet a couple of days back, the central bank further gave enough hints that it would not cut rates in a hurry given high crude prices which could further stoke inflation. For complete article, Click here

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THE LAST WORD

Why its difficult to believe the FM this time?
-Senthil Chengalvarayan, President & Editorial Director,
Network18 Business Media

He has done it again, asked us to suspend our credulity. I did it last year and raised a placard to signal that I thought budget 2011 deserved a "GOOD" when Rajdeep asked me how I rated it for effort at the CNN IBN studios. Today though when I was asked the same question I raised a smaller placard that read "BAD". Last year I took the Finance Minister at his word. I had naively thought he would make policy to help achieve the ambitious targets he had set himself. Today I am afraid the record his Party has set in the last year worked against the Finance Minister, not just with me, but with all of us in that rather packed studio, and the pity is that most of us gave him a thumbs up on budget day last year. This year I wasn't looking for big reform. I wasn't looking for a statement of intent on FDI in retail or Aviation or Insurance. I wasn't looking for a for big bang divestment, all of which I understand are difficult to do with the Allies Mr Mukherjee has. I wasn't even looking for a roadmap for GST, I am one of those who thinks the Finance Minister has done his best here and can't give in to the demands of blackmailing state governments. I wasn't looking for that "big idea" that us TV anchor's love to ask our guests to identify in budgets. All I was looking for was some credibility in the numbers that were presented. As he began his speech I applauded his intent to keep the deficit down to 2% of GDP this year and to bring it down to 1.7 percent the next. It looked like he meant it when he said that it was time to get back to the targets that were set by the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act. Then came the refreshing candor, the admission that this year he had muffed his austerity test and the Fiscal Deficit would soar by over a fifth to 5.9% from the 4.6% he had budgeted for. This was followed by the reasonable estimate of the Fiscal Deficit for next year, 5.1% that was right at the upper end of street expectations, but seemed believable. But as the bewildering speech wore on the memory of that bright spot faded. What followed was hotch potch of various allotments to various ailing sectors of the economy with no clear strategy on how they would pull together. As it became clear that he had no road map to achieve his growth targets and we got first glimpses of the fine print, it became clear that the assumptions didn't add up. Right on top of the speech he had said growth that had dropped to 6.9% would move to 7.6%. For complete article, Click here

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THE LAST WORD

Despite Budget, equity, bonds & currencies will have a ball -Arjun Parthasarthy, Editor, investorsareidiots.com
The optics from the Union Budget 2012-13 are positive for markets with higher growth, lower inflation and lower fiscal and current account deficits. GDP growth is estimated at 7.6% for 2012-13 against 6.9% for 2011-12. Inflation, expected at 6.5% for 2012-13, is below the average of 9.1% seen in 201112. Fiscal deficit is pegged at 5.1% of GDP, down from 5.9%, while the current account deficit (overseas earnings less expenses) is estimated to come in below 3.6% of GDP seen in 2012-13. Indian equities, bonds and currencies should react positively to the budget expectations in theory. However, the fact that the government has overshot its 2011-12 budget targets by a wide margin will make the markets circumspect on the latest forecasts of the finance minister. GDP growth came off from forecast levels of 9% last year, while fiscal deficit was higher by 1.3% against budget estimates for 2011-12. Current account deficit was a percentage point higher while inflation trended much higher than expectations in fiscal 2011-12. Markets are unlikely to move on the back of projections of the union budget 2012-13. The outlook for equity and currency markets will depend on whether there is continued risk appetite amongst global investors leading to foreign institutional investor (FII) flows continuing their positive trend seen in calendar year 2012. FIIs have pumped in over US$ 7 billion into Indian equities in the calendar year to date and, given the liquidity unleashed by central banks across the world, indications are that the flows will continue. The ECB (European central Bank) has pumped in over euro 1 trillion into the system through LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operations) while the US Fed has pledged to keep policy accommodative well into 2014. The Indian rupee (INR) is down by over 12% in fiscal 2011-12 largely on the back of FII flows turning negative and the current account deficit rising by over 1 percent on the back of the trade deficit going up by USD 70 billion over levels seen in 2011-12.

For complete article, Click here

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THE LAST WORD

Budget 2012 takes the 'p#*s' out of industry
-Menaka Doshi, Corporate Editor, CNBC-TV18
Anybody that says the Budget was a non-event hasn't read it all. Nor have I. But I've read enough to know it is a significant event! A very significant event!! Significant for those affected by a hike in excise and service tax rates to 12%. Very significant in the life of those services that were yet untaxed (that includes 80% of a sector that contributes 60% to GDP). The imposition of a 12% service tax on all services save 17 categories on the negative list ushers in a sea-change for service companies. The tax will have an insidious effect on all companies as 'service' is loosely defined. Rohan Shah, ELP says the definition may absurdly include transaction elements like non-compete agreements! He didn't use the word absurd, I have. That the negative list concept was to be introduced alongwith GST but gotten fast-tracked (without the accompanying reliefs) is another matter. GAAR suffered the same fate. Meant to be introduced in the new Direct Tax Code, it has been advanced, again without the accompanying safeguards (mentioned in the DTC Bill and those suggested by the Parliamentary Standing Committee). The Finance Bill version of General Anti-Avoidance Rules also ignores the Supreme Court's commentary in the Vodafone judgment regarding parameters to determine a bonafide or substance-based transaction. But that should hardly offend the Supreme Court as graver trespasses have been committed. The Government it seems went through the charade of looking for a judicial and judicious decision in its case against Vodafone to tax an offshore transaction. I say charade because the moment it lost it decided to amend the law to bolster its case and bring the Hutch-Vodafone transaction to tax. Pranab Mukherjee and team claim it is only a clarificatory amendment. But when the country's highest court has said that the Income Tax Act Section 9 does not in its current form support the tax claim, can any amendment to that form be just a clarification? No, when you change something to mean more than it did earlier it is a substantive change. Ironic that now the new form of Section 9 is attempting to trump its earlier substance. Oh and yes the amendment is retroactive...it is applicable from April 1st, 1962. 50 years of Section 9 interpretation have been rendered redundant. And yes, the message to the courts is if you don't rule in our favour then we'll simply 'fix' the law. So much for an independent judiciary. For complete article, Click here

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